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肖总财经
·
12-10 23:27
还能继续配置么？
1、 今年是贵金属、有色的大年，已经走了一轮超级牛市了。 先是年初黄金发力（贯穿整年），后面白银接力，然后铜、铝也走出周k级别的上升趋势。 黄金自10月中旬调整后，一直没破前高，整体上还是处于震荡趋势；白银也是10月中旬开始调整，但现在已经破了前高，截止发文已经62了，走出了上升趋势。 图片 我们10月中旬把黄金减仓后，运气比较好，立马开始布局白银，认为接下来白银会比黄金弹性大，恰巧赶上了这波白银的上涨趋势！（这波白银操作重点要感谢萌童鞋，当时我们重点讨论了白银，她给了我更多信心） 图片 我觉得贵金属金和银的趋势长期看仍然还在，逻辑前面提过很多次，这里不再赘述。 下面是圈子里的机构外资买方大佬lee分享的外资投行关于白银的报告，公号没法传pdf，如有需要可后台索取。 图片 今天主要聊下有色金属的铜和铝。 图片 一句话，只要AI的资本支出还在，那么铜和铝就不会太差。 铜——供给越来越缺乏，上游矿端增量近乎停滞，今年几家核心铜矿都遭到不同程度的减产或停产，25年全球铜矿产量仅增长1.4%。 铜的供给越来越缺，需求端越来越猛。单台英伟达GB200服务器用铜15-20公斤（传统服务器3倍），数据中心每兆瓦电力需27-33吨铜；26年全球数据中心用电量将占全球总用电量的4%-6%，直接拉动铜需求年增 26%。 铝——铝的生产也需要大量的电，搞AI需要大量的电，数据中心也消耗大量的电，电费上涨，电解铝的生产成本也要大涨。所以要不电解铝涨价，要不停产。 电解铝单吨耗电1.3-1.5万kWh，AI数据中心用电需求爆发，直接挤压工业用电空间，导致欧美电价持续上涨，电力成本已是中国的1.9倍，未来只怕会更高。 除了金和银，我们铜和铝也很早布局了，铝我主要做了创新实业的基石。 这些只是我立足当下，对未来的看法。当然，未来是无法预测的，我的看法也不是一成不变的，重要的是顺势而为，观点会随着内外形势
还能继续配置么？
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港股解码
·
12-03
【IPO追踪】上市首日高开下挫！金岩高岭新材成色如何？
近期港股市场迎来了多只新股上市。不过，这些新股的首日表现有所分化，既有
$量化派(02685)$
、
$创新实业(02788)$
这样上市大涨的，也有
$海伟股份(09609)$
、中伟新材（02579.HK）这样首日下跌的。 而在12月3日，又有金岩高岭新材（02693.HK）、乐摩科技（02539.HK）两只新股登陆港股市场，截至发稿时间均实现上涨，表现不错。 其中，金岩高岭新材出现高开下挫走势，截至发稿时间涨幅仍超11%。 值得注意的是，在招股阶段，金岩高岭新材有着不俗表现。具体而言，香港公开发售方面，公司获6876.17倍认购，公开发售的发售股份最终数目为243万股股份，占发售股份总数的约10%。 不过，在国际配售方面，金岩高岭新材获2.01倍认购，国际发售股份最终数目为2336.15万股股份，相当于发售股份总数的90%。 金岩高岭新材在中国专营煤系高岭土，拥有横跨从采矿、研发、加工到生产、销售的全价值链的整合能力。作为中国煅烧高岭土产品的主要生产商，金岩高岭新材的业务以丰富且优质的煤系高岭土矿产资源为依托，产品主要包括精铸用莫来石材料和耐火用莫来石材料。公司也销售生焦生粉，客户可进一步加工。 根据资料，精铸用莫来石材料主要用作精密铸造工艺中型壳制造的材料。该等产品是汽车、航空、医疗及通用器械等行业铸造高精度零部件不可或缺的材料。耐火用莫来石材料主要用于生产耐火材料，服务于冶金及建材等行业。 根据弗若斯特沙利文提供的数据，按2024年中国煤系煅烧高岭土公司的收入计算，金岩高岭新材以5.4%的市场份额排名第五。按2024年的收入
【IPO追踪】上市首日高开下挫！金岩高岭新材成色如何？
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编组 21备份 2
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Lam.
·
11-24
$创新实业(02788)$
小肉🧧
$创新实业(02788)$ 小肉🧧
# 晒晒更赚钱
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财哥看十年
·
11-23
【港股打新】紧急二选一！量化派VS海伟股份，打新资金这样配置成功率最高！
明天早上很难中的量化派
$量化派(02685)$
就要截止认购了幸好期间有个海伟股份
$海伟股份(09609)$
导致资金冲突，不然量化派基本95%的打新人都要成为炮灰由于周末孖展更新有很大的延迟，因此目前软件商显示的量化派孖展数据跟最终的数据是天差地别的图片明天早上就截止的时候，大家会看到量化派孖展翻倍的倍增，这走势算是老演员了海伟股份要到周二早上融资才截止，但站在目前的节点上，咱需要判断哪只新股更具性价比，集中力量办大事毕竟，这两只新股都会上涨的，遇上这种情况，财哥自己的方法都是先保中签率、再看涨幅！虽然申购资金有冲突，但量化派孖展怎么的也会1200亿，咱先用1200亿来预估中签率：初步预计量化派公开超购9230倍甲组：甲尾总中签率10%乙组:需要注意的是，本次量化派乙组仅两档，也就是乙二就是钉头锤乙头总中签率12%，钉头锤总中签率13.3%公开全员抽签，但由于有海伟股份冲突+顶头锤仅乙组两档的限制上限孖展的情况下，量化派中签率依然是地狱中签难度，但比之前好一些海伟股份，中签率没这么难中，因此本次市场应该会主要申购这只，孖展初步预计至少2000亿则海伟股份公开超购4545倍，中签率预估如下：甲组：甲尾总中签率30%乙头总中签率40%，钉头锤总中签率77%，公开依然全员抽签两只新股都是公开全员抽签，都比较难中但仅比较甲尾和乙组的话，海伟股份三倍于量化派，在先保中签率的前提下，海尾股份性价比更高当然，如果你引入一手金额+预期涨幅来看，两只新股的期望值其实是差不多的但任何期望值都有一个重要的前提：一手金额和预期涨幅要让位于先决条件中签率只有两者的中签率差别不是很大（比如两倍以内）的情况下，期望值才能开始发挥威力综上
【港股打新】紧急二选一！量化派VS海伟股份，打新资金这样配置成功率最高！
# 港股年末解禁潮！宁德狂泄，接下来关注哪只？
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LilithMonroe:
集中火力打海伟更稳，现金摸奖量化派！
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编组 21备份 2
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侠之大者.
·
11-24
创新实业(02788.HK)暗盘收涨30.57%，每手赚1680港元
将在下个交易日（11月24日）上市的创新实业(2788.HK)辉立暗盘收报14.35元，高发行价30.57%，总成交额3.74亿港元。每手500股，不计手续费，每手赚1680港元。 富途暗盘收报13.85元，高发行价26.02%，总成交额2.75亿港元。每手500股，不计手续费，每手赚1430港元。 配售结果显示，创新实业每股定价10.99港元，集资总额约54.95亿港元，净额约53.13亿港元。香港公开发售股份数目占全球发售股份数目10%，获认购447.20倍；国际发售股份数目占全球发售股份90%，获认购19.85倍。 创新实业(2788.HK)开启招股，募约52.9亿，明星基石云集 （本文首发于活报告公众号，ID：**）
创新实业(02788.HK)暗盘收涨30.57%，每手赚1680港元
# 老虎财报季
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编组 21备份 2
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gugu
·
11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
太没格局了[捂脸]
$创新实业(02788)$ 太没格局了[捂脸]
# 晒晒更赚钱
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4
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5
编组 21备份 2
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风速之路2024
·
11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
这也能赚点，不错！
$创新实业(02788)$ 这也能赚点，不错！
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滏阳河的鱼:
跑的太快有时候也不是好事
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3
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2
编组 21备份 2
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jovansjtu
·
11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
赶上大跌的一天暗盘。。这是要破发吗。。。
$创新实业(02788)$ 赶上大跌的一天暗盘。。这是要破发吗。。。
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3
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1
编组 21备份 2
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A愉快A
·
11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
抛早了、小赚
$创新实业(02788)$ 抛早了、小赚
# 晒晒更赚钱
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李涛二世:
我也是，开盘一分钟12元整跑了，被开盘吓尿了😱
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2
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1
编组 21备份 2
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悠闲54321
·
11-20
$创新实业(02788)$
中2000股
$创新实业(02788)$ 中2000股
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lessandmore:
有融资成本吗
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4
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编组 21备份 2
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小斯新报道
·
11-26
乐摩科技：业绩稳增的细分龙头，适合博弈？
打新市场近期多有起伏，部分A+H个股的破发带走了一部分情绪，但上周的
$创新实业(02788)$
大涨也再度把情绪带回来，尤其是细分赛道龙头标的备受资金青睐。即将登场的
$乐摩科技(02539)$
作为中国机器按摩服务市场的绝对龙头，无疑成为小票中的焦点。公司&行业分析公司是国内机器按摩服务的绝对龙头，2022-2024年连续三年交易额行业第一，2024年市场份额高达42.9%，是第二名的2.6倍。核心优势在于“全场景覆盖+数字化运营”：服务网点超48000个，覆盖31个省级行政区337个城市，渗透70.4%的万平米以上商业综合体；自主研发的LMB Links平台实现设备实时监控、远程维护、数据驱动运营，支撑日均22万笔交易峰值，构建强大技术壁垒。中国大健康市场规模预计2029年将达20.6万亿元，年复合增长10.9%，其中健康保健领域是核心增长引擎。机器按摩作为健康保健的重要细分，凭借便捷性、高性价比优势，市场规模预计2025-2029年复合增长15.9%，远超传统按摩服务增速。随着亚健康人群扩大、年轻消费者健康意识觉醒，商业综合体、影院、交通枢纽等场景的按摩需求持续爆发，行业进入黄金增长期。基本面核心财务指标（单位：人民币百万元）指标2022年2023年2024年2025年1-8月总收入330.15586.84797.99630.73净利润6.4887.3485.8188.55毛利率25.85%41.79%36.07%36.58%净利润率1.96%14.88%10.75%14.04%资产负债率（杠杆比率）135.65%58.13%26.61%18.17%经营活动现金流净额83.31164.28192.
乐摩科技：业绩稳增的细分龙头，适合博弈？
# 港股持续低迷！该离场了吗？
精彩
MooreAlcott:
龙头地位稳，增长潜力大，值得关注！
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1
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2
编组 21备份 2
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101可转债
·
11-20
创新实业（2788）分配结果，180手稳中1手，甲尾2-3手！
$创新实业(02788)$
创新实业（2788）出分配结果了，180手稳中1手，甲尾2-3手，乙头3手，顶头20手；定价：10.99，一手500股；恭喜中签的老板们！预测涨幅大概是15%左右，具体分析可以看看上一篇文章，只做参考，不做投资买卖建议。
创新实业（2788）分配结果，180手稳中1手，甲尾2-3手！
# 【热议】操盘多年，你被股市练出了啥性格？
精彩
滏阳河的鱼:
我预测涨30%
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3
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编组 21备份 2
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股怪沃伦巴韭特
·
11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
打了好几个月就中了这一个 感谢晚上吃肉
$创新实业(02788)$ 打了好几个月就中了这一个 感谢晚上吃肉
# 晒晒更赚钱
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真是港股圈
·
11-21
锚定沙特 + 成本称王，创新实业（02788.HK）超购446倍的背后逻辑
创新实业（02788.HK）
$创新实业(02788)$
港股IPO掀起资本热潮：孖展超额认购446倍，国际配售40余倍超额收官，17家顶级基石投资者豪掷 3.51亿美元，认购占比近50%。 这场狂欢的背后，是全球资本对公司“中国产能+海外布局”的战略与清晰增长路径的深度认可。 一、资本热捧：超购数据彰显全球信心 资本追逐的核心，是公司扎根中国电解铝产业的深厚优势。 中国电解铝产能占全球逾半，完整产业链壁垒无可替代，而创新实业精准聚焦产业高附加值的精炼与冶炼环节，打造 “能源 - 氧化铝精炼 - 电解铝冶炼” 一体化生态。 2024 年，公司氧化铝自给率约84%、电力自给率约88%，后者远超同业平均水平，为高度依赖电力的电解铝生产构筑核心壁垒。 生产效率与成本控制更显硬实力：电解铝人均产量达 590-670 吨，是行业均值的 2 倍以上；2024 年吨铝现金成本 15,112 元，显著低于国内 17,700 元的平均水平，管理单位吨铝现金成本的能力稳居中国前 5%、全球前 30%。 业绩层面，2022-2024 年净利润从 9.13 亿元飙升至 26.3 亿元，年复合增长率约 70%；2023-2024 年经营性现金流净额分别达 45.5 亿、34.6 亿元，充沛现金流既夯实稳健经营基础，更成为海外扩张的底气。 图片 二、前瞻布局：沙特基地打开增长天花板 国内电解铝产能触及天花板之际，创新实业已率先落子沙特，抢占战略高地。 沙特不仅拥有丰富油气资源，能提供低成本且稳定的电力支持，更凭借中东高速发展的市场潜力，成为全球铝产业新蓝海。根据 CRU 预测，2025-2028 年中东地区电解铝需求年均复合增长率将达 4.6%。 该项目为电解铝产业链综合项目，规划年产能50万吨，不但契合沙特“2030
锚定沙特 + 成本称王，创新实业（02788.HK）超购446倍的背后逻辑
精彩
上山抓牛股:
创新实业新股评级满仓干，而且新股分析的也说了“这个流通盘很大，可能会压制上市涨幅
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3
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编组 21备份 2
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肉松爱老虎
·
11-20
$创新实业(02788)$
应该可以吃到肉吧
$创新实业(02788)$ 应该可以吃到肉吧
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nijia1994:
打了多少啊，中了这么多，发财
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1
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编组 21备份 2
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Bobbo
·
11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
小小回血
$创新实业(02788)$ 小小回血
# 晒晒更赚钱
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编组 21备份 2
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Aa曦月豆豆_
·
11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
终于吃了一口肉。
$创新实业(02788)$ 终于吃了一口肉。
# 晒晒更赚钱
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编组 21备份 2
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滏阳河的鱼
·
11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
感谢老虎，感谢CCTV
$创新实业(02788)$ 感谢老虎，感谢CCTV
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编组 21备份 2
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11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
走人走人
$创新实业(02788)$ 走人走人
# 晒晒更赚钱
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11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
五星级酒店, 有人代付款了😎
$创新实业(02788)$ 五星级酒店, 有人代付款了😎
# 晒晒更赚钱
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编组 21备份 2
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公司概况
公司名称
创新实业
所属市场
SEHK
成立日期
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员工人数
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办公地址
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公司网址
http://www.innovationigi.com
邮政编码
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公司概况
创新实业集团有限公司是一家主要从事电解铝及氧化铝生产及销售的公司。该公司通过两个分部开展业务。电解铝业务分部主要生产及销售铝锭及铝液。氧化铝业务分部主要生产及销售氧化铝及其他相关产品。
11-14
股份发售
全球发售
全球发售
2022-03-16
收购
联合公告 (1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)该计划之生效日期(3)撤回上市地位及(4)寄发支票
联合公告 (1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)该计划之生效日期(3)撤回上市地位及(4)寄发支票
2022-03-14
收购
联合公告(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)该计划获批准(3)该计划之预期生效日期及(4)撤回上市地位之预期日期
联合公告(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)该计划获批准(3)该计划之预期生效日期及(4)撤回上市地位之预期日期
2022-02-24
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联合公告 (1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化(2)建议撤回上市地位(3)法院会议及股东特别大会之结果及(4)暂停办理股份过户登记手续
联合公告 (1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化(2)建议撤回上市地位(3)法院会议及股东特别大会之结果及(4)暂停办理股份过户登记手续
2022-01-20
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(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位的进展情况
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位的进展情况
2022-01-18
收购
联合公告(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位寄发计划文件
联合公告(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位寄发计划文件
2022-01-18
收购
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位
2022-01-12
业绩预告
正面盈利预告
正面盈利预告
2022-01-04
收购
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化(2)建议提高注销价(3)建议撤回上市地位及(4)恢复股份买卖的进展情况
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化(2)建议提高注销价(3)建议撤回上市地位及(4)恢复股份买卖的进展情况
2021-12-22
收购
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位的月度进展情况
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位的月度进展情况
2021-12-15
收购
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位的进展情况
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位的进展情况
2021-11-30
收购
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位的月度进展情况
(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化及(2)建议撤回上市地位的月度进展情况
2021-11-01
业绩预告
正面盈利预告
正面盈利预告
2021-10-15
收购
联合公告(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化(2)建议撤回上市地位(3)设立独立董事委员会及委任独立财务顾问及(4)恢复股份买卖
联合公告(1)要约人建议根据开曼群岛公司法第86条以协议安排方式将精熙国际（开曼）有限公司私有化(2)建议撤回上市地位(3)设立独立董事委员会及委任独立财务顾问及(4)恢复股份买卖
2021-08-27
半年度报告
二零二一年中期业绩报告
二零二一年中期业绩报告
分时
5日
日
周
月
数据加载中...
最高
18.000
今开
17.300
量比
1.03
最低
17.020
昨收
17.000
换手率
0.48%
热议股票
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这些只是我立足当下，对未来的看法。当然，未来是无法预测的，我的看法也不是一成不变的，重要的是顺势而为，观点会随着内外形势","sourceLanguage":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","editable":false,"auditStatus":"PASSED","topFlag":false,"totalScore":0,"gmtCreate":1765380420923,"gmtModify":1765382601058,"symbols":["02655","07618","02659","03887","02788"],"themeIds":[],"popularizeThemeFlag":false,"imageCount":8,"images":[{"url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e8067fe17c7e861c3f8623ccd10fb6","width":"1080","height":"433"},{"url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16df695a5e7b7153b88cccbdcaf0e6e7","width":"1080","height":"1348"},{"url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148a2fb4d15517c18123d748c7dd3efa","width":"796","height":"828"}],"repostCount":0,"viewCount":370,"likeCount":0,"liked":false,"collected":false,"commentCount":0,"hotComments":[],"voteFlag":false,"rewardFlag":false,"videoFlag":false,"articleFlag":false,"paperFlag":true,"essentialFlag":false,"highlightedFlag":false,"shareLink":"https://laohu8.com/post/509306801639680","orderFlag":false,"starInvestorRankings":[],"featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2342,"displayRows":2,"foldSize":0,"authorId":"3554463181289571"}],"position":0},{"cardType":"TWEET","cardId":"TWEET.506675270787152","cardData":[{"tweetId":"506675270787152","author":{"authorId":"3478560277044805","idStr":"3478560277044805","name":"港股解码","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ddf8b49991624b6c7a49b9c67324a01","userType":2,"introduction":"港股解码，香港财华社原创王牌专栏，金融名家齐聚。看完记得订阅、评论、点赞哦。","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3852,"starInvestorFlag":false,"userFollowAuthorFlag":false,"authorFollowUserFlag":false},"userFollowAuthorFlag":false,"authorFollowUserFlag":false,"title":"【IPO追踪】上市首日高开下挫！金岩高岭新材成色如何？","digest":"近期港股市场迎来了多只新股上市。不过，这些新股的首日表现有所分化，既有 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