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中文投资网 ·2023-09-29美国的这一新潮流，将推动此类股票的上涨美国的这一新潮流，将推动此类股票的上涨
从表面上看，减肥药的使用似乎与办公空间、购物中心和公寓楼的需求关系不大。但Jefferies分析师Jonathan Petersen却不敢苟同。他推测，体型更健美的人群会有一系列不同的生活习惯，这些习惯可能会在经济中产生连锁反应，并最终影响到房地产业--使一些行业受益，而另一些行业则受到压力。Petersen周一在给客户的一份说明中写道："虽然根据这一趋势立即调整您的投资组合可能为时过早，但我们对 GLP-1 药物在未来十年可能如何改变房地产行业做出了预测。"一类被称为胰高血糖素样肽 1 受体激动剂的新型减肥药给肥胖症患者带来了新的希望，他们可以减轻体重，并有可能远离 2 型糖尿病和心脏病等其他慢性疾病。这些药物包括 Ozempic、Wegovy 和 Mounjaro，目前的使用量还很小，但分析师预测，由于能从这些疗法中受益的人比例很大，未来几年的使用量还会增长。Petersen认为，随着接受药物治疗的患者购买新衣柜以适应较小的身材，商场的人流量可能会开始回升。这将有助于Simon Property(SJPG)、Federal Realty Investment Trust(FRT)和Macerich(MAC)等商场运营商。Petersen 说，但由于消费者减少食用丰富的食物，餐馆可能会受到损失，这对 NNN REIT 等在其投资组合中拥有大量餐馆物业的公司来说是一个打击。他还推测，消瘦的人群可能会更加注重社交，并寻求拥有更多共享空间和游泳池等设施的公寓楼。如果这一愿景得以实现，将促进 Equity Residential（EQR）、Avalonbay Communities (AVB)和 Apartment Income REIT (AIRC)等公寓运营商的发展。从长远来看，这些药物的使用将提高病人的健康水平，Petersen预计这可能意味着看医生的次数会减少，寿命会延长leopard12 ·2022-10-13leopard12 ·2022-10-03leopard12 ·2022-08-30leopard12 ·2022-08-27leopard12 ·2022-08-17leopard12 ·2022-08-09leopard12 ·2022-08-07吴家琦 ·2022-08-03S&P 500 July 🆚 YTD Performance Summary by S&P Dow Jones Indices.• In July, Th...S&P 500 July 🆚 YTD Performance Summary by S&P Dow Jones Indices.• In July, The U.S Equity market rebounded from its decline in the first half of the year. The S&P 500, which had 🔻 by -20.0% between January and June, rose by 9.2% in July. • Every factor index likewise ⬆️ after a first half in which every factor index had declined. It’s an exaggeration to say that July’s factor returns were a mirror image of returns from the first 6️⃣ months of the year, but it’s not a big exaggeration. • In the first half of the year, most factors outperformed the S&P 500; in July, only three did. Those 3️⃣ top performers were High Beta, Pure Growth, and Growth, which were the three worst performers in the first half of the year. • Similarly, the best performers in the first half – LowVolati美股解毒师 ·2022-08-01刚开始回暖，就有分析师开了下半年“必买”清单刚开始回暖，就有分析师开了下半年“必买”清单
$瑞银(UBS)$ 策略师Keith Parker认为，当前市场衰退风险已经被很大程度上计价，从策略的角度来看，风险回报比是有吸引力的。因此它们在不同的板块中，开具了2022年下半年具有吸引力的股票购买清单——按行业划分，最具吸引力的板块排名分别是：基础材料$材料ETF(XLB)$、货物和工业 $工业ETF(XLI)$ 、消费$消费品指数ETF-SPDR可选消费品(XLY)$ $消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品(XLP)$ 、能源$SPDR能源指数ETF(XLE)$ 、金融$金融ETF(XLF)$ 和房地产$Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ 、医疗保健$精彩哎呀呀小伙子: 金光闪闪的文章竟然没有多少人识货，有点不可思议咏竹坊 ·2022-07-29Private Equity Search for Value Around VNETPrivate Equity Search for Value Around VNET
Key takeaways: 1、Korea’s MBK Partners is reportedly weighing a bid for VNET Group, three months after the data center operator received an unsolicited offer from another private equity firm 2、VNET’s shares have stagnated since it received an original April buyout offer from Hina, indicating investors believe a deal for the company is unlikely VNET Group Inc.’s (VNET.US) days as an independent data center operator look numbered, with word that several private equity companies may be weighing bids for the company. This particular development is the latest in a story dating back to April, when VNET, the least-respected of China’s three overseas-listed data center operators, disclosed it had received an unsolicited bid for the company from a Chinese consortium. The latest potential bidde吴家琦 ·2022-07-20BIG BEAR HARNETT SEES A STOCKS / CREDIT RALLY IN THE NEAR TEARM AS EQUITY ALL...BIG BEAR HARNETT SEES A STOCKS / CREDIT RALLY IN THE NEAR TEARM AS EQUITY ALLOCATION BY FUND MANAGERS IS THE LOWEST SINCE LEMAN.Equity allocation VS cash lowest since 2008…Smartkarma ·2022-07-18ANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of EquityANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of Equity
ANZ will issue A$3.5bn of equity - an insto block and a tradable rights offer to retail - to buy #7 bank SunCorp Bank. It adds heft, but the ACCC may not welcome it. Buy ANZ discounted anyway. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) this morning made a flurry of announcements. First and foremost, ANZ withdrew from discussions on MYOB. Q3 earnings ended 30 June saw revenue +5%, lending up 3%yoy, markets revenue +7%, NIM up 3bp (rising rates helps). Basel3 APRA Level2/Level1 CET1 Ratios were 11.1%/10.4%. But the big news: ANZ is buying SunCorp Bank from SunCorp (SUN AU) for A$4.9bn (1.3x NTA), and will raise A$3.5bn through a 1 for 15 renounceable rights offering. Full analysis here:- https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/anz-bank-anz-au-nixes-myob-yeas-suncorp-bank-to吴家琦 ·2022-07-09Wealthy Families are increasingly relying on Private Equity to boost ⤴️ return...Wealthy Families are increasingly relying on Private Equity to boost ⤴️ returns, while loosing interest in HedgeFunds.A large percentage of the 221 biggest family offices in the 🌏 surveyed by UBS mentioned their plans to ⬆️ their allocation to PE (direct deals), and private Real Estate. Paring back their gold, cash holdings to deploy into private equitySource: UBS 2022 Family Office Report shared by Bloomberg LP吴家琦 ·2022-07-04Equity-focused mutual funds and exchange-traded funds attracted $70 billion o...Equity-focused mutual funds and exchange-traded funds attracted $70 billion of fresh money over the first 5 months of the year. "Buy The Dip" is still alive!Unlike the previous two bear markets, when mounting losses fueled an investor exodus, cash kept pouring in this time. Yet, P/E at 18 exceeds all trough valuations in 11 previous cycles."It’s human nature to want to buy the dip, to want to find the bottom. And I do think that behavior is still quite evident among investors. It means what we’ve seen is what we’re likely to keep seeing: markets that are grinding their way lower, punctuated by periodic bouts of enthusiasm" Steve Sosnick at Interactive BrokersSource: Bloomberg LP吴家琦 ·2022-06-13Why Asia could be performance engine of world for H2 2022 In summary, these a...Why Asia could be performance engine of world for H2 2022 In summary, these are the 3 Key Reasons. More to come in our Vantage Point H2 Outlook 2022ASEAN Re-imagined- More FX flexibility - More central bank independence bank FED- Different growth and inflation challenges - Localized sovereign challenges differChina Re-opening - Short term reprisal…reopen/PCR/political stability- All medium term fear around ZCS- Equity offers buffers: valuation/balance sheetJapan re-visit foreign M&A through weak yen- inflation protection trades still available today- re-opening trade still strong- household savings still high/supportive- Japan upper house elections supportive of showing strong post covid economy- corporate earnings resilience吴家琦 ·2022-06-02Does Equity – Capitulation Lies Ahead?Is Retail De-leveraging yet to take pla...Does Equity – Capitulation Lies Ahead?Is Retail De-leveraging yet to take place?Whilst sentiment is clearly lower, positioning inertia means equity exposure still remains high and is just beginning to come off. Real yields turning further positive and equity portfolio drawdowns triggering panic sell-offs will lead to a further washout in equities.PE correction nearing bottom of range. Will EPS revisions/ contraction to drive next leg lower?The direction of earnings revisions has turned negative. There’s nothing particularly surprising about this; it’s the natural way of things for earnings estimates to be talked down as companies look to give themselves a lower bar to clear. But this follows an unusually protracted period when earnings were forever being revised upward.吴家琦 ·2022-05-30Markets: Asia Equity up post best week in Wall Street since Nov20, US/EU Futu...Markets: Asia Equity up post best week in Wall Street since Nov20, US/EU Futures slightly up today, dollar down against most FX. China Stimulus: Shanghai unveiled a 50-step aid package that includes tax rebates and allowing manufacturers to resume operations in June. The city will also speed approval of property projects, raise the car ownership quota and ease testing mandates for public places.Russia-Ukraine: EU ambassadors are scheduled to meet again today ahead of a leaders' summit to discuss a revised package of Russian sanctions. This after the bloc failed to reach a compromise yesterday in the face of Hungarian resistance.Commodities: Oil nudged higher at the week's open, as did gasoline. Gold declined in Asia as signs risk appetite is returning damped its haven appeal. Base metals w吴家琦 ·2022-05-27Equity hedge funds have rapidly trimmed their balance sheets.Source: Evercore...Equity hedge funds have rapidly trimmed their balance sheets.Source: EvercoreISI, The Daily Shot美股解毒师 ·2022-04-19REITs会是本轮通胀周期的强势品种吗？REITs会是本轮通胀周期的强势品种吗？
REITs房地产投资信托在美国市场是一个相当大的投资品种，发展到现在已有众多类型。通常来讲，我们可以把它分为两大类——股权型REITs和抵押债券型REITs。前者，本质上倾向于周期性，可能对衰退和经济衰退期敏感；而后者，本质是贷款，利率的变化和信用风险将决定其收益。 通胀大环境下，投资者越来越注重寻找抗通胀的投资品种。房产自然是最保值的产品之一。 1992年-2007年，REITs产品的表现（年化收益率）超过了股市、债市以及大宗商品。 而在美联储一直认为“通胀是暂时的”2021年（不愿加息），REITs的表现$不动产信托指数ETF-Vanguard(VNQ)$ 也超过了同样宽松环境下的$标普500(.SPX)$ 10%以上。 这就说明市场对去年的通胀早就开始忌惮。我们以过去1年为时间维度，对比了住宅类的几只较大的REITs，$阿湾物产(AVB)$ $UDR不动产信托(UDR)$ $埃塞克斯信托(ESS)$ $资产住宅公司(EQR)$ $MAA房产信托(MAA)$ ，均远远跑赢标普500指数。 然而，美联储终究还是认错，开始了紧锣密鼓的加息，并将市场预期一再提高。 紧缩周期会对REITs产生什么样的影响？ 人们普遍认为，贷精彩紧缩利率，房地产贷款利息增加，经济热度下降之后，信托市场的投资产品应该不会有大的变化
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