社区

Spoiled Child   09.19.2018 Wed， Cloudy， Air Perfect Summary：欧洲资产在A50峰会前有所调整，但May传递的乐观信息提振了EUR和GBP。美债遭到持续抛售，美股则在纳指带动下小幅反弹。贸易紧张还有拯救的可能，毕竟这一阶段开始双方都要感到疼了。 Euro Session: Treasure **res jumped on 200bn news but soon after A share opened, Asia market shrugged off the negative impact. USDCNH retreated half of the early gains coupled with DXY while ADXY even drifted lower. As the market waiting for the statement from DOC, it was reported that HE was on a special meeting engaged on tariffs. I do hope they have preliminary arrangement. A share rallied strongly in the late session while news said that China will boost infrastructure investment against the tariff.   TY traded a touch higher than 3% when EU session stepped in. EGBs opened flat except BTP declined as Di Maio clashed with Tria o

Every Minute Counts 09.17.2018 Mon, Sunny, Air Perfect Summary：May的脱欧协议可能遭到工党强烈阻击，导致EUR和GBP 双双回调。美国经济数据良好，部分对冲Trump贸易言论的负面影响，美国风险资产收盘基本走平。 Euro Session: UST curve stayed almost unchanged in Tokyo session as TY held at 2.97%. Asia risks performed well led by TAIEX while A share struggled through and closed flat. The re-election as the LDP leader looks like a done deal when the latest jiji poll showed Abe's approval rate above his disapproval rate since Fed.   EU equities gapped higher and then in a firm tone while EGBs were under moderate pressure. Everything seemed good with no-one knew what was waiting ahead. Around 7:30, Labor shadow foreign secretary Thornberry told the FT that she does not think the Labor party will support Theresa May’s Brexit deal. She added that the PM would li

  09.13.2018 Wed, Sunny, Air Polluted Summary：意大利和欧元区工业产值数据不佳一度导致欧元和英镑反弹夭折，但是欧盟再次对英国脱欧协议让步使得欧洲资产再次上涨。美国有意重启贸易谈判的消息使得美国资产获得支撑。美元则有所走弱，但美债缩量新发引起抢购，而似乎欧洲的大问题要来了。 Euro Session: Asia markets traded heavily with A share down for the 6th straight session, $Asia on the defensive, while UST yields held at 2.97%. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on the regional outlook with report that US and Japan could resume trade talk on Sep 21 after Abe addressed he shall try to visit China in October on trade issues. In my gut, Japan is likely to accede to a free-trade agreement with US since its king's living place is within the 5 minutes range of F35.   EU equities opened in green following their US counterparts while EGBs mixed. It's supposed to be relatively quiet session since no tier-1 data

Shall We Face the Music ？ 09.12.2018 Wed, Cloudy, Air Perfect Summary：尽管欧洲次重量级经济数据超预期，但市场开始关注欧洲基本面的不确定性，欧洲资产纷纷见顶。美国股市摆脱贸易战阴影，有所走强。美欧、美加贸易谈判出现转机，导致美元轻微走弱。 Euro Session: Asian assets mixed as investors await trade clarity. Regional bourses fluctuate except Japan equities outperform(1.3%) as JPY weakens while A share saw a choppy session after struggling to close touch lower. Trade tension between US and Japan intoxicated somewhat while one Japan official say Japan does not need FTA with US.   EU market enjoyed risk-on for another session. EU equities opened flat while the spread between core and periphery tightened. As to FX, Sterling advanced with EUR, adding to Monday’s surge, after European Union’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said it’s “realistic” to get a Brexit deal within eigh

This Time is Really Different ! 09/10/2018, Mon, Sunny, Air Polluted Summary：欧美股市均因Trump贸易战言论收跌，而美债收益率则受超预期的AHE数据大幅上行。本周长端美债发行加速，周末税法关于美国公司加大养老金投资的条款过期，但警惕利率下行。 Euro Session: The surprising weakness of Germany July trade and IP punched down EUR and GBP at the moment Tokyo closed. Soon after that, EUR and GBP reversed losses and reached day-high, which astounded me quite a lot. EURUSD seemed to find itself in the middle of no man’s land once again, which resisted to any external incentives naturally.   During the early part of EU session, here came he news that EU is open to discussing other backstops to withdrawal agreement helped GBP to gain territory. It seems that the UK and EU will attempt to get agreement on the Withdrawal Agreement even if the goal for a deal having slipped to N

Watch the Hour Tick by 09/10/2018, Moni, Sunny, Air Perfect Summary：贸易战阴影拖累欧美股市，日元受益大涨，各主要国家利率受压。本周美国HY ETF大量资金流出，下周美国国债新发，市场关注贸易问题后续发展以及地中海态势发展。 Euro Session: EM turmoil moderated across most of Asia. USTs little changed from New York Closed levels. Range was only as tight as 3 tick with cash 10s holding around 2.90% for another day. Asian bourses followed US Counterparts lower as EM stress continues with A share got pretty nervous about the possibility of the 25% tariff on 200bn goods with strong intent to test the recent low in Aug.   Both EU equities and EGBS opened flat except BTP was under strong purchasing power. The pause of EM bleeding did boosted the sentiment with the market taking no news as good news as to Italy. Both EUR and GBP performed resiliently to a decent extent.

Some Fairytale Bliss 09.06.2018 Thur, Sunny， Air Perfect Summary：意大利预算问题继续搅动欧洲市场，市场似乎理解意政府要价并不高，英德在脱欧立场上做出重大让步的消息（后被德国以外交辞令予以否认）提振欧洲资产。美股受科技股高管面临国会质询而有所调整。新兴市场有可能短期企稳，但是提示美股风险的大机构队伍还在扩大。 Euro Session: Asian bourses dropped in a sea of red led by jakarta comp(-4.52%) as EM pain persisted. EM FX and Fixed income continue under stress. $Asia firmly bid across the region with the high yielders IDR and INR the focus of attention.   EU was telling a quite different story from EM bleeding. Trapped in the deep water of Italy , single items from all the related could easily incent volatile into the market. Early in the morning, Salvini said "ITALY'S LEAGUE TARGETS 2019 DEFICIT SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2%" .It is the “opening bid” for what the government is asking for and there will have to be a back and

New Normal till That Time 09,03.2018, Mon， Sunny， Air Polluted Summary：在美国市场三天长假之前，欧美市场表现平静，美债月末效应被卖盘压力完美抵消。本周数据密集，多位央行人士讲话，但重点还是在贸易。 Euro Session: CSI300 had a choppy time which fell in the morning and failed to rebound in the afternoon while the quality of the official manu PMI rising from 54 to 54.2 need to be justified by Caixin on Monday. To my surprise, no month-end activity with USTs were under off tone all through Asia time.   As to Italy issues, Tria was reported that he doesn’t intend to breach the EU’s limit as he seeks at least a 1.5% deficit/GDP ratio in the country’s budget, which is being prepared. And ECB'S Nowotny signaled Italian woes shouldn't delay rate hikes which sent EUR higher ,but soon was offset by the miss of Germany retail sales. Economy data: 2:00 GE July

Pricing Next Weekend from by this One 08.31.2018， Fri， Sunny， Air Perfect Summary：贸易紧张和意大利预算以及评级更新问题掌控欧美市场，土耳其阿根廷继续遭受冲击.乏闷得夏季交易时间就要结束了! Euro Session: Another slow summer Asia session after the carnival in previous US time while A share plummeted again. With the impeding of Sep 5th, the probability of 25% tariff on 200bn exports could be the main factor. Beyond that, we could see the hike by the end of next month which was already priced 100% via OIS means.   EU equities opened weak and EGBs in bid tone. The headlines of Fitch due to review Italy's rating today hit the tape, shadowing the market. Fitch says measures planned by the new Italian government on taxes, basic income and pensions for 2019 may cost as much as EU75 billion yearly.   Italian auctions (5y and 10y as well as C

Win ^2 Prevail on Win^n 08.28.2018, Tue, Cloudy, Air Polluted Summary： 美墨协议提振风险资产，Cohen律师改口为其锦上添花。另，FXFI trader 的春天可能回来 Euro Session: With no apparent catalyst, UST traded in a quite fashion while risks were in a firm tone (Nikkei +0.9%, Shanghai +1.7%). It wa a bank holiday in London, USD Rates will close at 3pm Tokyo (2pm Beijing time)to re-open at 6am New York.   Without UK on the party, Trading was very thin with EU markets of FI and equity opening flat and quietly. But as to FX, EUR and GBP were hit by the story that France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire said French deficit should stand at around 2.6% of gross domestic product this year compared with an initial target of 2.3%.   At 4:00, GE Aug IFO bounced back sharply which saved EUR and GBP for while. This could be the