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New Normal till That Time

09,03.2018, Mon， Sunny， Air Polluted

Summary：在美国市场三天长假之前，欧美市场表现平静，美债月末效应被卖盘压力完美抵消。本周数据密集，多位央行人士讲话，但重点还是在贸易。

Euro Session:

CSI300 had a choppy time which fell in the morning and failed to rebound in the afternoon while the quality of the official manu PMI rising from 54 to 54.2 need to be justified by Caixin on Monday. To my surprise, no month-end activity with USTs were under off tone all through Asia time.

As to Italy issues, Tria was reported that he doesn’t intend to breach the EU’s limit as he seeks at least a 1.5% deficit/GDP ratio in the country’s budget, which is being prepared. And ECB'S Nowotny signaled Italian woes shouldn't delay rate hikes which sent EUR higher ,but soon was offset by the miss of Germany retail sales.

Economy data:

2:00 GE July retail sales -0.4% vs -0.2%, prior 1.2% mom; 0.8% yoy vs 1.3% yoy, prior 3% revised down to 2.7%.

GB Aug Nationwide house px -0.5% mom vs 0.1%, prior 0.6% revised up to 0.7%; 2.0% yoy vs 2.7%, prior 2.5%.

2:55, FR Aug HICP 0.6% mom vs 0.5%, prior -0.1%; 2.6% yoy vs 2.5%, prior 2.6%.

US Session:

Ahead of the long weekend – US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday today – it was a predictably quiet session on Friday. SPX spent most of the session modestly in the red – but by no more than 0.3% – before eventually closing flat. Treasuries are struggling to finish lower by the end of NYT. Month-end buying took place earlier than usual and the market was quietly drifting lower all afternoon. While the US and Canada failed to strike a deal on Friday, talks are expected to resume on Wednesday. To be noted , Trudeau also said that Canada will only sign a “good” NAFTA deal, and that a win-win-win scenario is still possible.

Economy data:

Canada July product prices -0.2% m/m vs -0.4% consensus.

US Chicago Purchasing Manager survey for August 63.6, vs. 63.0 consensus and 65.5 prior.

U-Michigan Survey August final, consumer sentiment 96.2 vs. 95.5 consensus and 95.3 prior. Current conditions up to 110.3 from 107.8 prior, expectations to 87.1 from 87.3 prior. 1-year inflation expectations up to 3.0% from 2.9% and 5-10 year inflation expectations up to 2.6% from 2.5%

Key Data And Events Ahead:

Data Heavy !

Mon: EC, UK, DEU, FRA, ITA Mfg PMI. Jpn Capital spending (Q2), Mfg PMI

Tue: BOE’s Carney, Haldane, Tenreyro, and Saunders are all scheduled to testify before parliament

Wed: ROC meeting, EC,GE, IT, FR markit PMI

Thur: US ADP, GE factory order, US markit PMI, ISM NON-MANU index, factory orders, durable goods orders

Fri: US NFP,DEU UK IP, EC GDP Q2F

Comments:

Given that Trump said he wants to announce the additional tariffs on $200bln imports as soon as September 6, risks of a 25% tariff rate and further escalation have risen. If not, well since escalation of trade tension caters to Trump's interest, we still can have strong reasons to believe that until midterm, this kind of topic could be put back and forth quite often and we should get used to this new normal whcih is also the title all about. While the cover today does not mean too much except it's the first day for kids to go to school(F** CCAV and jiaoyubu for the diyike,shame on them !)

The talk of EM bleeding is so popular while I think it's an old story. Who is the weakest in EMs ? The list as followed is rank by "external coverage ratio" quota from one house's paper . It is calculated via dividing a country's reserves by its 12 month external funding needs, which in turn are the sum of the i) current account, ii) short-term external debt and iii) the next 12 months amortizations from long-term external debt. Ems are to be harvested every 7-8 years only if they depend too much on foreign debts.

No more update tomorrow and resume this notes from Wednesday on since it's USD vacation tonight.

个人微信zhangke8639，欢迎同业交换名片。公众号更新速度快一点儿....排版也好一点点儿....

近期重要时间点：

9月3日，第二批A股纳入MSCI

9月5日，200bn听证会后申诉材料提交截止日

9月13日，ECB议息

9月18日，EU A50会议

9月20日，EU非正式峰会,日本LDP选举

9月26日，FOMC

9月，日本LDP选举,半岛峰会在平壤

9月27日，意大利提交财政预算案

10月16日，EU A50会议

10月25日,ECB议息

10月31日，BOJ议息

11月6日，美国中期选举开始

11月8日，FOMC

11月11日，美国阅兵 (取消了，说是因为预算问题)

12月13日，ECB议息，EU 峰会

12月20日，FOMC

12月22日，改革开放40周年

2019年3月21日，EU 峰会

2019年3月29日，脱欧谈判截止

Appendix：his t overnight

0901 0111 I will be doing a major rally for Senator Ted Cruz in October. I’m picking the biggest stadium in Texas we can find. As you know, Ted has my complete and total Endorsement. His opponent is a disaster for Texas - weak on Second Amendment, Crime, Borders, Military, and Vets!

0901 0241 Wow, I made OFF THE RECORD COMMENTS to Bloomberg concerning Canada, and this powerful understanding was BLATANTLY VIOLATED. Oh well, just more dishonest reporting. I am used to it. At least Canada knows where I stand!

0901 0611 “President Donald J. Trump is Strengthening Retirement Security for American Workers” https://t.co/cKeATuKXDe

0901 1031 .@Rasmussen_Poll just came out at 48% approval rate despite the constant and intense Fake News. Higher than Election Day and higher than President Obama. Rasmussen was one of the most accurate Election Day polls!

0901 1041 The ABC/Washington Post Poll was by far the least accurate one 2 weeks out from the 2016 Election. I call it a suppression poll - but by Election Day they brought us, out of shame, to about even. They will never learn!

0901 1041 Great day in North Carolina where Republicans will do very well!

0901 1041 Still can’t believe that Bloomberg violated a firm OFF THE RECORD statement. Will they put out an apology?

0901 1921 “I think today what has happened is that news reporting has become part of the adversary system.” Alan Dershowitz It has become tainted and corrupt! DJT

0901 1926 I love Canada, but they’ve taken advantage of our Country for many years!

0901 2031 Report: There were no FISA hearings held over Spy documents.”It is astonishing that the FISA courts couldn’t hold hearings on Spy Warrants targeting Donald Trump. It isn’t about Carter Page, it’s about the Trump Campaign. You’ve got corruption at the DOJ & FBI. The leadership....

....of the DOJ & FBI are completely out to lunch in terms of exposing and holding those accountable who are responsible for that corruption.” @TomFitton @JudicialWatch

0901 2121 “You have a Fake Dossier, gathered by Steele, paid by the Clinton team to get information on Trump. The Dossier is Fake, nothing in it has been verified. It then filters into our American court system in order to spy on Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton’s political opponent......

....Donald Trump, and now we find out that there wasn’t even a hearing - that Donald Trump’s 4th Amendment right to privacy was signed away...and someone in there is swearing that this stuff is true, when it wasn’t? This is the scandal here - a police state.” Dan Bongino

0901 2301 There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decade of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere with these negotiations or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off..

0901 2306 There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off...

....Remember, NAFTA was one of the WORST Trade Deals ever made. The U.S. lost thousands of businesses and millions of jobs. We were far better off before NAFTA - should never have been signed. Even the Vat Tax was not accounted for. We make new deal or go back to pre-NAFTA!

0902 0657 No Deal! Trade Talks with Canada Conclude for the Week with No Agreement | Breitbart https://t.co/87vi7OqopY via @BreitbartNews

0902 0657 MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

0902 0657 We shouldn’t have to buy our friends with bad Trade Deals and Free Military Protection!

0902 0847 “There’s no fairness here, if you’re a Democrat or a friend of Hillary you get immunity or off scott free. If you’re connected to Donald Trump, you get people like Robert Mueller & Andrew Weissman, and his team of partisans, coming after you with a vengeance and abusing their....

....positions of power. That’s part of the story of the Russia Hoax. Christopher Steele is on the payroll of Hillary Clinton & the FBI, & when they fired him for lying, they continued to use him. Violation of FBI regulations. Kept trying to verify the unverifiable.” @GreggJarrett

0902 0902 “No information was ever given by the Trump Team to Russia, yet the Hillary Clinton campaign paid for information from Kremlin sources and just washed it through an intermediary, Christopher Steele.” Jesse Waters

0902 0922 “There is no possible way the Trump Tower meeting between Don Trump jr and a couple of Russians, who have very deep connections to both the Clintons & Fusion GPS, & where no information on the Clintons was exchanged, is a crime. Dems are blinded by their hatred of Trump.” Bongino

0902 0927 RT @realDonaldTrump: We shouldn’t have to buy our friends with bad Trade Deals and Free Military Protection!

0902 0947 RT @CoreyStewartVA: Federal workers endured 8 years of hell under Obama, with several rounds of pay freezes and benefit cuts. @realDonaldTrump can fix this, and I trust that he will. https://t.co/70mgZSRIKd

0902 2132 Tiger Woods showed great class in the way he answered the question about the Office of the Presidency and me. Now they say the so-called “left” is angry at him. So sad, but the “center & right” loves Tiger, Kanye, George Foreman, Jim Brown & so many other greats, even more.......

....The fact is that African/American unemployment is now the lowest in the history of our country. Same with Asian, Hispanic and almost every other group. The Democrats have been all talk and no action. My Administration has already produced like no other, and everyone sees it!

0902 2212 RT @realDonaldTrump: .@Rasmussen_Poll just came out at 48% approval rate despite the constant and intense Fake News. Higher than Election Day and higher than President Obama. Rasmussen was one of the most accurate Election Day polls!

Disclaimer：This material was prepared in private name and out of pernaonal hobby,definitely based upon facts and robust analysis with delicate consideration of highly professionality.But with no means to conduct any trade , and before using the contents of this note in any internal or external communication, please ensure you are comfortable and fully aware this could not be sufficient enough as any action base.

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