WTI原油ETF(CRUD.UK)

15.86-0.17-1.04%

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      MarketTiming
      ·
      03-11

      【市场周期的准确度】挑战市场预测极限:2025星象模型复盘,2026火年最异动资产? 2026年3月10日

      时光荏苒,农历新年将至,又是时候为大家撰写新的年度预测报告了。在这个金融市场辞旧迎新的关键节点,我希望借此机会与大家深层次地聊聊「长周期预测」所面对的极端挑战,并以我的模型为基础进行严谨的复盘。 大家都明白,越长期的预测,面对的不确定性 (Uncertainties) 也是几何级数上升的。如果我们说,每天早上开市前打开美股指数盘前报价,参考 ADR 和日本股市开盘,然后预测一小时后的港股涨跌是相对轻松的工作;那么预测未来一周、一个月、一个季度甚至是整整一年,可以发生的市场变量、地缘政治、政策变动就实在太多了。预测一整年,简直充满了技术上的挑战性,随时可能失准。 $WTI原油ETF(CRUD.UK)$ $WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$ 然而,我认为坚持做这种长周期预测,并非为了在网络上哗众取宠。相反,我是为了从严谨的验证 (Verification) 中去挑战自己预测的极限。越是困难的事,越能检验一套分析系统的真正价值。只有不断挑战最高难度的全年长周期预测,才能在覆盘中持续进化,达到顶级分析师的境界。 我早在 2017 年就开始出版第一期年报预测,至今已经就快 10 年。从早期的周期验证和市场反馈中,我不断完善,后期更加注重「星象模型」的量化统计 (Astrological Model quantification),将金融占星学从统计学的角度进行量化。废话不多讲,先让数据和事实来说话,看看 2025 年的预测成绩。 第一张图 是我在 2025 年年初发布的预测模型图。图中,我们清晰地标示出了当时模型预测的、极具参考价值的转折点,例如 End of Feb, Mid of Jun,
      【市场周期的准确度】挑战市场预测极限:2025星象模型复盘,2026火年最异动资产? 2026年3月10日
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      纪晴川_Eric
      ·
      2025-09-11

      美国非农大降温,降息情绪还能提振市场吗?

      美国劳工统计局周五发布的数据显示,8月份非农就业人数仅增加2.2万人,远低于市场预期的7.5万人,失业率微升至4.3%。这一表现延续了自4月以来就业增长近乎停滞的趋势,引发了对劳动力市场放缓的担忧。数据公布后,9月美联储降息基本被定价,11月降息概率已经增加到70%。 图片来源:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 就业市场持续降温 根据最新报告,医疗保健领域就业增加3.1万人,部分抵消了联邦政府以及采矿、采石和石油天然气开采领域的就业减少。社会援助领域也呈现增长,但制造业就业减少1.2万人,其中运输设备制造业因罢工活动减少1.5万人。批发贸易和联邦政府就业持续下降,后者自1月峰值以来已减少9.7万人。 值得注意的是,6月份非农就业人数从初值的增加1.4万人下修至减少1.3万人,为2020年12月以来首次出现负值。7月数据小幅上修至增加7.9万人。经过修订后,6月与7月合计就业人数比此前报告减少2.1万人。 8月份平均时薪环比增长0.3%,至36.53美元,同比增长3.7%,符合市场预期。生产和非管理岗位员工的平均时薪也增长0.4%,至31.46美元。然而,工时数据连续第三个月保持在34.2小时,制造业平均工时小幅降至40.0小时。 家庭调查数据显示,8月劳动力参与率为62.3%,就业人口比率为59.6%,均与上月持平,但较去年同期下降0.4个百分点。长期失业者(失业27周或以上)人数为190万人,较去年增加38.5万人。因经济原因从事兼职工作的人数为470万人,变化不大。 值得注意的是本次采矿合石油天然气领域就业录得负数,这也是和WTI油价 $WTI原油ETF(CRUD.UK)$ 持续走低有关。尽管特朗普政府积极推动“能源主导地位”战略,通过开放联邦土地水域、加
      美国非农大降温,降息情绪还能提振市场吗?
      精彩点石成精2: 降息预期升高,市场反应可能不如预期,要留意风险
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    • 公司概况

      公司名称
      WTI原油ETF
      所属市场
      LSE
      成立日期
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      公司概况
      WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil is designed to enable investors to gain an exposure to a total return investment in crude oil by tracking the Bloomberg Crude Oil Subindex (the "Index") and providing a collateral yield. WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil is an exchange traded commodity ("ETC"). Its securities can be created and redeemed on demand by authorised participants and traded on exchange just like shares in a company. The ETC is backed by swaps. The payment obligations of the swap counterparties to the Issuer are protected by collateral held which is marked to market daily. The collateral is held in segregated accounts at The Bank of New York Mellon. Details of the collateral held can be found in the Collateral section of the WisdomTree website (www.wisdomtree.com). Index Description The Index is designed to reflect the movement in the price of the WTI crude oil futures contracts (that are continuously rolled on a pre-determined rolling schedule) used in the Bloomberg Commodity IndexSM. A futures contract is an agreement to purchase a commodity at an agreed price, with delivery and payment to take place at a specified point in the future. Futures contracts are generally disposed of just before the term of the contract expires and new contracts entered into in order to avoid taking actual delivery of the commodity in question (a process known as 'rolling'), so that continuous exposure to the commodity is maintained. The contracts being purchased may be more expensive than the contracts being sold which would cause an investor in commodity futures to make an additional loss. This market trend is known as 'contango'. Alternatively the contracts being purchased may be cheaper than the ones being sold which would result in an additional gain, known as 'backwardation'. This price difference is commonly referred to as "roll yield". As the roll yield is incorporated into the calculation of the value of the Index, it may therefore have a positive or negative impact on the value of the Index depending on whether there is contango or backwardation. The ETC will also be affected as its value is based upon the value of the Index.
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