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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
02-04
FSD不能落地，是东大的损失
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
01-31
三个在亏钱的空头表示很气愤，并骂了一句骗人[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]
马斯克：特斯拉Optimus进行产能爬坡，将建设年产1000万台的产线
建设一条年产 1000 万台的产线。
马斯克：特斯拉Optimus进行产能爬坡，将建设年产1000万台的产线
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
01-28
准备准备，可以离职了
10项功能！特斯拉春节OTA大更新曝光：语音唤醒、酷狗音乐、微信互联都来了
看来，大家期待的语音唤醒、酷狗音乐都真快要来了，应该是 Model S3XY 都有。昨天大家也已经有看到网上流传的 OTA 截图了吧，最顶上显示就是酷狗音乐，一些人还认为是 P 的。但就在深夜又有新分享能看到更全面的发行说明了，而且是视频展示，有水印可以基本确定是特斯拉员工车辆上的。共计有 10 项功能，这应该算是今年春节 OTA 大更新内容提前曝光没得跑了。不过，到时候正式推送时的车机软件版本号应该是 2026 开头了。
10项功能！特斯拉春节OTA大更新曝光：语音唤醒、酷狗音乐、微信互联都来了
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
01-26
可笑
特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸
一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值，特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战，或许并非来自某个对手，而是一种更难启齿的状态：平庸感。 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文，释放了又一个隐晦的信号：特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD，此后仅提供按月订阅服务。
特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
01-08
并且车主没买商业险
特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开
但该车道同样有一辆大货车，特斯拉又变到了最右侧的导流线上，结果在前方导流线收窄的地方，车辆刹车不及追尾了前方的大货车，并被挤到了栏杆上。特斯拉车内气囊全部弹出，车门也被挤住打不开，车内甚至已经开始冒烟了，他们两人被困在车内，非常恐怖。此次事故特斯拉负全责，因为车辆没买车损险，车损非常严重，已经报废了。
特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
01-07
做的人越多，监管放的越快
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
01-06
靠你急成这样，就知道特斯拉要起飞了
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
01-06
觉得自己很牛，相信自己的判断就卖房做空，哪里来的那么多废话
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
01-05
给你整笑了
湖南Robotruck海外出圈：L4还能这么玩？领先特斯拉太多！
Robotruck本身AI司机的核心算法能力，以及前装量产的工程化能力，这两点放在如今任何自动驾驶玩家，甚至是头部玩家身上都是稀缺且关键的核心竞争力。各种因素作用，Waymo的Robotaxi业务一飞冲天，但Robotruck业务长期沉寂，直到去年年中官方第一次明确暂停投入。回归国内视角，Robotruck赛道不算封闭港口园区场景，干线物流，包括城际中短途货运，现在呈现出的
湖南Robotruck海外出圈：L4还能这么玩？领先特斯拉太多！
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
2025-12-17
亏钱亏急眼了
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...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ithome.com/0/917/980.htm\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9753361e4f73430b74709d4b04b8819f","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.ithome.com/0/917/980.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2607043586","content_text":"1月30日周五， 特斯拉 盘中“逆市”拉升涨超4%。知情人士透露，在今年上市之前，马斯克旗下SpaceX和xAI正在商讨合并事宜，此次合并将把马斯克的火箭、星链卫星、X社交媒体平台以及Grok人工智能聊天机器人整合到一起。此外，外媒综合马斯克的近期发言，介绍了特斯拉 Optimus 4 机器人的生产布局。具体来说，特斯拉 Optimus 机器人首条产线将设在加州弗里蒙特工厂，该产线将具备年产 100 万台人形机器人的能力。后续公司将在得州超级工厂进行产能爬坡，建设一条年产 1000 万台的产线。不过，考虑到民众适应机器人需要一段时间，因此马斯克认为“Optimus 初期的产量提升会相对谨慎”，但其依然坚信这款人形机器人最终可能对社会和经济产生深远影响。Optimus 本质上会是一款通用型机器人，能够通过观察人类行为来学习。你可以示范一个任务、口头描述一个任务，甚至给它看一段视频，它都能学会去完成。这将是一款能力非常强的机器人。从长期来看，我认为 Optimus 会对美国 GDP 产生非常显著的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":526472879452944,"gmtCreate":1769561128240,"gmtModify":1769561130842,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"准备准备，可以离职了","listText":"准备准备，可以离职了","text":"准备准备，可以离职了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/526472879452944","repostId":"2606756480","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606756480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769552873,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606756480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-28 06:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"10项功能！特斯拉春节OTA大更新曝光：语音唤醒、酷狗音乐、微信互联都来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606756480","media":"model 3情报","summary":"看来，大家期待的语音唤醒、酷狗音乐都真快要来了，应该是 Model S3XY 都有。昨天大家也已经有看到网上流传的 OTA 截图了吧，最顶上显示就是酷狗音乐，一些人还认为是 P 的。但就在深夜又有新分享能看到更全面的发行说明了，而且是视频展示，有水印可以基本确定是特斯拉员工车辆上的。共计有 10 项功能，这应该算是今年春节 OTA 大更新内容提前曝光没得跑了。不过，到时候正式推送时的车机软件版本号应该是 2026 开头了。","content":"<html><body><p>看来，大家期待的语音唤醒（嘿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>）、酷狗音乐都真快要来了，应该是 Model S3XY 都有。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2026_05/556C9B66E877EFDBF39AE5F422E2A7F277A47F34_size50_w1080_h459.jpg\"/></p><p>昨天大家也已经有看到网上流传的 OTA 截图了吧，最顶上显示就是酷狗音乐，一些人还认为是 P 的。</p><p>但就在深夜又有新分享能看到更全面的发行说明了，而且是视频展示，有水印可以基本确定是特斯拉员工车辆上的。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2026_05/174059F255D655C2059BFCD9BA5489E7F116C256_size295_w580_h699.png\"/></p><p>带来了不少更新内容，如“自动化”应用程序，也就是说可以把不同日常用车当中的一些习惯，都可以创建成你个人的记忆了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2026_05/36B88EAA07F6488BCCAFCAC8E5A116BE0F099042_size145_w574_h557.png\"/></p><p>现在微信也可以互联了，点击导航搜索➡️手机➡️激活按钮启动服务，根据引导在手机端激活服务后，即可将微信里的地址直接发送到您的车辆上（需要有高级车载娱乐服务包）。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2026_05/51768702AE243E45C4E05FEADD9A436999561139_size127_w490_h388.png\"/></p><p>这里小编就不一一放各功能介绍图片了，除上述提到外大概说一下还有行车记录仪动态录制时长、QQ 音乐伴唱模式、歌词视觉焕新、超级充电站聚合显示、喷漆车间、附近停车。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2026_05/C824E85695F737CAF7B1B868957FBEF1D72554B5_size237_w578_h659.png\"/></p><p>共计有 10 项功能，这应该算是今年春节 OTA 大更新内容提前曝光没得跑了。</p><p>不过，到时候正式推送时的车机软件版本号应该是 2026 开头了。</p><p>那么，以上这些更新哪几项是特友们比较期待的？来简单聊一聊！</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10项功能！特斯拉春节OTA大更新曝光：语音唤醒、酷狗音乐、微信互联都来了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10项功能！特斯拉春节OTA大更新曝光：语音唤醒、酷狗音乐、微信互联都来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-28 06:27 北京时间 <a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8qH1EOxCcsq><strong>model 3情报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>看来，大家期待的语音唤醒（嘿，特斯拉）、酷狗音乐都真快要来了，应该是 Model S3XY 都有。昨天大家也已经有看到网上流传的 OTA 截图了吧，最顶上显示就是酷狗音乐，一些人还认为是 P 的。但就在深夜又有新分享能看到更全面的发行说明了，而且是视频展示，有水印可以基本确定是特斯拉员工车辆上的。带来了不少更新内容，如“自动化”应用程序，也就是说可以把不同日常用车当中的一些习惯，都可以创建成你个人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8qH1EOxCcsq\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","01698":"腾讯音乐-SW","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) 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ACC","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0509642566.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0269904917.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8qH1EOxCcsq","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2606756480","content_text":"看来，大家期待的语音唤醒（嘿，特斯拉）、酷狗音乐都真快要来了，应该是 Model S3XY 都有。昨天大家也已经有看到网上流传的 OTA 截图了吧，最顶上显示就是酷狗音乐，一些人还认为是 P 的。但就在深夜又有新分享能看到更全面的发行说明了，而且是视频展示，有水印可以基本确定是特斯拉员工车辆上的。带来了不少更新内容，如“自动化”应用程序，也就是说可以把不同日常用车当中的一些习惯，都可以创建成你个人的记忆了。现在微信也可以互联了，点击导航搜索➡️手机➡️激活按钮启动服务，根据引导在手机端激活服务后，即可将微信里的地址直接发送到您的车辆上（需要有高级车载娱乐服务包）。这里小编就不一一放各功能介绍图片了，除上述提到外大概说一下还有行车记录仪动态录制时长、QQ 音乐伴唱模式、歌词视觉焕新、超级充电站聚合显示、喷漆车间、附近停车。共计有 10 项功能，这应该算是今年春节 OTA 大更新内容提前曝光没得跑了。不过，到时候正式推送时的车机软件版本号应该是 2026 开头了。那么，以上这些更新哪几项是特友们比较期待的？来简单聊一聊！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLS":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLA":1.95,"01698":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":525959262033224,"gmtCreate":1769432971205,"gmtModify":1769432973255,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"可笑","listText":"可笑","text":"可笑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525959262033224","repostId":"2606212832","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606212832","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769427420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606212832?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-26 19:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606212832","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值，特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战，或许并非来自某个对手，而是一种更难启齿的状态：平庸感。 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文，释放了又一个隐晦的信号：特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD，此后仅提供按月订阅服务。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></span><span></span>的地位可谓无人能及。无论是负面消息，还是此起彼伏的竞争警报，似乎都难以真正撼动其股价。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战，或许并非来自某个对手，而是一种更难启齿的状态：平庸感。</p>\n<p> 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车（Cox Automotive）的最新数据显示，即便特斯拉推出了简配版Model 3和Model Y车型，试图在电动车税收抵免退坡后重振需求，但2025年第四季度在美国市场的销量仍下滑15%。</p>\n<p> 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文，释放了又一个隐晦的信号：特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD，此后仅提供按月订阅服务。</p>\n<p> FSD即完全自动驾驶（监管版），本质上仍是一套高级驾驶辅助系统，并不具备完全自主驾驶能力。多年来，它一直以选装升级的形式出售，目前一次性购买价格为8000美元。自2021年起，特斯拉推出订阅方案，当前月费为99美元。</p>\n<p> 特斯拉的一举一动总能引发热议，这次也不例外，究其根源还是马斯克过往的种种豪言。2020年，他曾放话称，随着软件持续迭代优化，这套当时还未标注“监管版”的FSD选装包，价值将水涨船高，最终有望突破10万美元大关。然而，现实世界中的科技产品，尤其是依赖芯片、被装进四个轮子里的技术，价值几乎总是沿着相反方向演进，而且往往速度不慢。理论上，更好的软件或许能改变这一轨迹，但特斯拉自身的行动显然并未印证这一点。</p>\n<p> FSD的定价并非一成不变：2019年时售价一度低至5000美元，随后几经上调，最高涨到1.5万美元。订阅模式推出后，价格一路回落至如今水平。如今，特斯拉索性取消了买断选项，尽管这一方式相当于提前锁定近十年的订阅收入。</p>\n<p> 这并不像一项会不断升值的资产，更像一项普通服务：价格随技术能力、竞争格局与市场环境而浮动。</p>\n<p> 这一转向的背景，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>在拉斯维加斯消费电子展上掀起的涟漪。这家芯片巨头推出了开源人工智能模型Alpamayo，用于开发自动驾驶汽车，并将其与英伟达现有的软硬件工具整合，为车企提供一套“即装即用”的高级驾驶辅助系统解决方案，未来甚至有望拓展至完全自动驾驶。</p>\n<p> 马斯克回应称，英伟达不过是在复制特斯拉的路线。从某种程度上来说，确实如此。英伟达采用的机器学习自动驾驶方案与特斯拉思路相近，同样需要花费漫长时间，在真实道路环境中反复验证。</p>\n<p> 但更深层的问题在于，一家并不打算造车的科技公司，正试图打造自动驾驶领域的“安卓系统”，向所有愿意付费的车企开放。这为传统车企提供了一条低资本投入的捷径，却也意味着，一个持续增长的车辆价值来源将不可避免地外溢给一家市值已超过全球汽车产业总和的供应商。对底特律而言，这是一把双刃剑，尤其是在其价值体系仍高度依赖内燃机的背景下。</p>\n<p> 对特斯拉而言，情况可能更糟。随着电动车业务明显受挫，支撑其估值的，越来越多来自市场对其在自动驾驶领域建立统治地位的预期。特斯拉的股票，本质上是一种叙事。正如自动驾驶专家、风投机构New Industry Management联合创始人亚历克斯·罗伊（Alex Roy）所言，特斯拉拥有强大的“叙事主导权”。马斯克塑造公众对汽车科技认知的能力之强，甚至延伸到对相关术语本身的定义，以至于不断逼近的竞争，也未能撼动特斯拉200倍以上的市盈率。</p>\n<p> 但竞争往往伴随着另一种更隐秘的力量：大宗商品化。近一年前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>已在中国市场将高级驾驶辅助系统列为多数车型的标配；如今英伟达的入局，又为汽车功能“从高价噱头沦为标配”的老路添上了新注脚。别忘了，作为FSD前身的Autopilot，曾经也是售价数千美元的选装项，如今早已成为标配。在经历多轮降价后，FSD转而完全采用可随时取消的订阅模式，本身就是一种信号。</p>\n<p> 如果特斯拉的技术优势无可匹敌，这种变化或许不足为惧。但正如我此前所写，特斯拉对其所谓“定义行业、引领全球”的核心技术，一直披露有限，令人费解。</p>\n<p> 更何况，距离特斯拉在奥斯汀推出FSD自动驾驶出租车一周年的节点仅剩五个月。必须坦率地说，与马斯克此前的承诺相比，那次“上线”近乎滑稽，而公司最近又一次错过了移除前排安全驾驶员的时间节点。</p>\n<p> 如果这种不温不火的节奏持续到2026年6月，那些长期看多特斯拉的投资者，是否会开始对“特斯拉真正引领自动驾驶”的叙事产生动摇？罗伊指出，只要不发生灾难性事故，特斯拉仍有空间展示进展、维系叙事，比如在保留安全员的情况下，将服务扩展至更多城市。考虑到特斯拉近乎宗教般的号召力，这或许已足以托住股价。马斯克当然也可以进一步加码“机器人叙事”，只是那条赛道上，同样已不乏竞争者。</p>\n<p> 但除了信徒之外，外界已然看清：特斯拉在无人驾驶领域许下的种种承诺，与其实际进展相去甚远；与此同时，市场竞争日益激烈，行业“常态化”的苗头也已显现。既然特斯拉已在电动车领域失去无可争议的领导地位和定价权，又凭什么假定，它能在新领域免疫于同样的规律？</p>\n<p> 企业可以在某个（任何）领域大获成功，但当竞争加剧、光环褪色时，它仍可能辜负市场的炽热期望。评估特斯拉的自动驾驶业务时，决定性的不只是市场份额假设，也在于价格与定价能力。在如此高估值的状态下，最大的风险或许并非轰然坠落，而是缓慢而熟悉地，滑向平庸。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：刘明亮 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-26 19:37 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-26/doc-inhirukv8967185.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值，特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。无论是负面消息，还是此起彼伏的竞争警报，似乎都难以真正撼动其股价。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战，或许并非来自某个对手，而是一种更难启齿的状态：平庸感。\n 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年，比亚迪在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车（Cox Automotive）的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-26/doc-inhirukv8967185.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) 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INC"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-26/doc-inhirukv8967185.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2606212832","content_text":"一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值，特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。无论是负面消息，还是此起彼伏的竞争警报，似乎都难以真正撼动其股价。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战，或许并非来自某个对手，而是一种更难启齿的状态：平庸感。\n 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年，比亚迪在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车（Cox Automotive）的最新数据显示，即便特斯拉推出了简配版Model 3和Model Y车型，试图在电动车税收抵免退坡后重振需求，但2025年第四季度在美国市场的销量仍下滑15%。\n 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文，释放了又一个隐晦的信号：特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD，此后仅提供按月订阅服务。\n FSD即完全自动驾驶（监管版），本质上仍是一套高级驾驶辅助系统，并不具备完全自主驾驶能力。多年来，它一直以选装升级的形式出售，目前一次性购买价格为8000美元。自2021年起，特斯拉推出订阅方案，当前月费为99美元。\n 特斯拉的一举一动总能引发热议，这次也不例外，究其根源还是马斯克过往的种种豪言。2020年，他曾放话称，随着软件持续迭代优化，这套当时还未标注“监管版”的FSD选装包，价值将水涨船高，最终有望突破10万美元大关。然而，现实世界中的科技产品，尤其是依赖芯片、被装进四个轮子里的技术，价值几乎总是沿着相反方向演进，而且往往速度不慢。理论上，更好的软件或许能改变这一轨迹，但特斯拉自身的行动显然并未印证这一点。\n FSD的定价并非一成不变：2019年时售价一度低至5000美元，随后几经上调，最高涨到1.5万美元。订阅模式推出后，价格一路回落至如今水平。如今，特斯拉索性取消了买断选项，尽管这一方式相当于提前锁定近十年的订阅收入。\n 这并不像一项会不断升值的资产，更像一项普通服务：价格随技术能力、竞争格局与市场环境而浮动。\n 这一转向的背景，是英伟达在拉斯维加斯消费电子展上掀起的涟漪。这家芯片巨头推出了开源人工智能模型Alpamayo，用于开发自动驾驶汽车，并将其与英伟达现有的软硬件工具整合，为车企提供一套“即装即用”的高级驾驶辅助系统解决方案，未来甚至有望拓展至完全自动驾驶。\n 马斯克回应称，英伟达不过是在复制特斯拉的路线。从某种程度上来说，确实如此。英伟达采用的机器学习自动驾驶方案与特斯拉思路相近，同样需要花费漫长时间，在真实道路环境中反复验证。\n 但更深层的问题在于，一家并不打算造车的科技公司，正试图打造自动驾驶领域的“安卓系统”，向所有愿意付费的车企开放。这为传统车企提供了一条低资本投入的捷径，却也意味着，一个持续增长的车辆价值来源将不可避免地外溢给一家市值已超过全球汽车产业总和的供应商。对底特律而言，这是一把双刃剑，尤其是在其价值体系仍高度依赖内燃机的背景下。\n 对特斯拉而言，情况可能更糟。随着电动车业务明显受挫，支撑其估值的，越来越多来自市场对其在自动驾驶领域建立统治地位的预期。特斯拉的股票，本质上是一种叙事。正如自动驾驶专家、风投机构New Industry Management联合创始人亚历克斯·罗伊（Alex Roy）所言，特斯拉拥有强大的“叙事主导权”。马斯克塑造公众对汽车科技认知的能力之强，甚至延伸到对相关术语本身的定义，以至于不断逼近的竞争，也未能撼动特斯拉200倍以上的市盈率。\n 但竞争往往伴随着另一种更隐秘的力量：大宗商品化。近一年前，比亚迪已在中国市场将高级驾驶辅助系统列为多数车型的标配；如今英伟达的入局，又为汽车功能“从高价噱头沦为标配”的老路添上了新注脚。别忘了，作为FSD前身的Autopilot，曾经也是售价数千美元的选装项，如今早已成为标配。在经历多轮降价后，FSD转而完全采用可随时取消的订阅模式，本身就是一种信号。\n 如果特斯拉的技术优势无可匹敌，这种变化或许不足为惧。但正如我此前所写，特斯拉对其所谓“定义行业、引领全球”的核心技术，一直披露有限，令人费解。\n 更何况，距离特斯拉在奥斯汀推出FSD自动驾驶出租车一周年的节点仅剩五个月。必须坦率地说，与马斯克此前的承诺相比，那次“上线”近乎滑稽，而公司最近又一次错过了移除前排安全驾驶员的时间节点。\n 如果这种不温不火的节奏持续到2026年6月，那些长期看多特斯拉的投资者，是否会开始对“特斯拉真正引领自动驾驶”的叙事产生动摇？罗伊指出，只要不发生灾难性事故，特斯拉仍有空间展示进展、维系叙事，比如在保留安全员的情况下，将服务扩展至更多城市。考虑到特斯拉近乎宗教般的号召力，这或许已足以托住股价。马斯克当然也可以进一步加码“机器人叙事”，只是那条赛道上，同样已不乏竞争者。\n 但除了信徒之外，外界已然看清：特斯拉在无人驾驶领域许下的种种承诺，与其实际进展相去甚远；与此同时，市场竞争日益激烈，行业“常态化”的苗头也已显现。既然特斯拉已在电动车领域失去无可争议的领导地位和定价权，又凭什么假定，它能在新领域免疫于同样的规律？\n 企业可以在某个（任何）领域大获成功，但当竞争加剧、光环褪色时，它仍可能辜负市场的炽热期望。评估特斯拉的自动驾驶业务时，决定性的不只是市场份额假设，也在于价格与定价能力。在如此高估值的状态下，最大的风险或许并非轰然坠落，而是缓慢而熟悉地，滑向平庸。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLP":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519602110502248,"gmtCreate":1767877242874,"gmtModify":1767877245081,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"并且车主没买商业险","listText":"并且车主没买商业险","text":"并且车主没买商业险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519602110502248","repostId":"2601369690","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601369690","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767873971,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601369690?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-08 20:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601369690","media":"快科技","summary":"但该车道同样有一辆大货车，特斯拉又变到了最右侧的导流线上，结果在前方导流线收窄的地方，车辆刹车不及追尾了前方的大货车，并被挤到了栏杆上。特斯拉车内气囊全部弹出，车门也被挤住打不开，车内甚至已经开始冒烟了，他们两人被困在车内，非常恐怖。此次事故特斯拉负全责，因为车辆没买车损险，车损非常严重，已经报废了。","content":"<html><body><article><p>快科技1月8日消息，据报道，近日，安徽岳西高速上，一辆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>发生追尾事故，车主对车辆的辅助驾驶系统也产生了质疑。</p><p>行车记录仪<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIDE\">视频显示</a>，这辆特斯拉本来在最左侧的超车道行驶，前方大客车突然变道，特斯拉刹车不及，紧急变道至右侧车道。</p><p>但该车道同样有一辆大货车，特斯拉又变到了最右侧的导流线上，<strong>结果在前方导流线收窄的地方，车辆刹车不及追尾了前方的大货车，并被挤到了栏杆上。</strong></p><p>车主介绍，当时他开了辅助驾驶系统，他看到要追尾第一反应是踩刹车，但系统却让他避让，踩刹车没有反应，导致最后追尾，并被大货车挤着拖行了几十米。</p><p>特斯拉车内气囊全部弹出，车门也被挤住打不开，车内甚至已经开始冒烟了，他们两人被困在车内，非常恐怖。</p><p>最后，是大货车司机砸碎了车玻璃，他们才逃了出来。此次事故特斯拉负全责，<strong>因为车辆没买车损险，车损非常严重，已经报废了。</strong></p><p>车主表示，如果当时是他在开车，发生这样的事故他愿意承担事故责任。但现在的情况时，车辆是由辅助驾驶来开的，车辆失控才造成事故。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260108201322229d163i88xupy3xmm\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉辅助驾驶连续避让后追尾 车主：刹车没反应 车门和窗户打不开\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-08 20:06 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260108201331a70304a5&s=b><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快科技1月8日消息，据报道，近日，安徽岳西高速上，一辆特斯拉发生追尾事故，车主对车辆的辅助驾驶系统也产生了质疑。行车记录仪视频显示，这辆特斯拉本来在最左侧的超车道行驶，前方大客车突然变道，特斯拉刹车不及，紧急变道至右侧车道。但该车道同样有一辆大货车，特斯拉又变到了最右侧的导流线上，结果在前方导流线收窄的地方，车辆刹车不及追尾了前方的大货车，并被挤到了栏杆上。车主介绍，当时他开了辅助驾驶系统，他看到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260108201331a70304a5&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL 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16:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"湖南Robotruck海外出圈：L4还能这么玩？领先特斯拉太多！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601009142","media":"智能车参考","summary":"Robotruck本身AI司机的核心算法能力，以及前装量产的工程化能力，这两点放在如今任何自动驾驶玩家，甚至是头部玩家身上都是稀缺且关键的核心竞争力。各种因素作用，Waymo的Robotaxi业务一飞冲天，但Robotruck业务长期沉寂，直到去年年中官方第一次明确暂停投入。回归国内视角，Robotruck赛道不算封闭港口园区场景，干线物流，包括城际中短途货运，现在呈现出的","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>贾浩楠 发自 副驾寺</strong></p><p>智能车参考 | 公众号 AI4Auto</p><p><strong>“比FSD领先好几步”</strong>——</p><p>海外看到中国自动驾驶方案，有种惊呆的感觉…自动驾驶，还能这么玩？</p><p>自动驾驶“三座大山”：<strong>成本、监管、技术的不可能三角</strong>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>Waymo一直拿不出解法，甚至还淘汰了大量初创公司。</p><p>而中国玩家“巧力出奇迹”，一举扫清了L4的落地障碍：</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7fokiaaibkadJY5NrKfbupQm6nm9o2aKCooEwq1G1oDrfz12PAtDD6cre6ozzgBSKQw15qs91iagabSfs8k3CLRrQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p>场景，是<strong>自动驾驶卡车</strong>；</p><p>背后玩家更令人惊奇，竟然是从<strong>湖南娄底</strong>走出的全球工程机械“一哥”<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600031\">三一重工</a></strong>。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160849536v206kcvgpxfwlls\"/><p>在重卡市场上一鸣惊人不奇怪，毕竟重工到重卡某种程度是降维打击。</p><p>但从传统制造业巨头一跃成为AI、自动驾驶圈明星，这个转身太突然也太不可思议。</p><p>怎么做到的？</p><p><strong>三一拿出了什么样的L4方案</strong></p><p>让海外直呼“妙哉”的L4卡车落地方案，国内尤其是智能车参考的读者老爷一点都不陌生：</p><p><strong>L4编队</strong>模式。</p><p>整个车队都是三一重卡，但<strong>头车是一辆L2卡车</strong>（当然也可以是L4），配备一位人类驾驶员，车队后续尾随的，全部都是完全无人的L4卡车。</p><p>头车作用，除了满足各地区普遍的法规，最重要的职责是解决L4运营中的“断点恢复”问题，包括辅助装卸货、应对临时停车检查等等自动驾驶系统能力之外的流程性任务。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160906861v20657c7rccv2wa\"/><p>车队之间采用V2V实现通信，常规路况下执行跟随策略，需要超车、绕行的场景，车队会遵从头车指示。</p><p>但头车并不具备后车的操作权限，接到指令后，后车的感知、规划和具体执行，都由L4自动驾驶系统完成。</p><p>法规层面和实际运营中，纯无人的自动驾驶卡车往往被局限在矿场、港口等等封闭区域内，投放规模和营收增长都受到极大限制。</p><p><strong>编队模式的第一个优势，就是通过“头车有人”彻底打破地理围栏限制</strong>。</p><p>经济上，三一打造的编队可以“1拖N”，如果是“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601038\">一拖</a>四”模式，首先至少能节约80%的人工费用。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160909388v206f9s0toz30y2\"/><p>编队行驶中，头车尾部会还产生一个低压区，阻力大幅减少，跟随车辆能够显著节省能耗，行业普遍实测节能10%左右。</p><p>再加上自动驾驶带来的货物运损、事故率及保险费用等等下降，官方给出的数据是<strong>每公里货运成本降低29%、车队运营利润提升高达195%</strong>。</p><p>货运物流行业亘古不变，决定一切矛盾、供需关系的根本出发只有一条：<strong>成本</strong>，限制条件和额外影响因素远少于Robotaxi。</p><p>这也是<strong>编队模式的最大优势：相比只能减人不能去人的L2卡车，降本增效立竿见影</strong>。</p><p>这也是让海外惊叹“没想到”的核心：三一用L4编队打了一个双向“剪刀差”，相比纯无人场景不受限，相比L2卡车成本大幅降低——扫清了L4卡车的落地障碍。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/7fokiaaibkadJY5NrKfbupQm6nm9o2aKCoWt0nnFV8k0b7IEA9Wt32BRczJj0b8zJicwO3veVIUbI3eWxSAHmSRHw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg\"/><p>包括特斯拉、Waymo，以前高光过又倒掉的北美自动驾驶卡车玩家等等在内，却无一尝试。</p><p>况且，北美路况其实更加适合编队模式。</p><p>海外智能车媒体Electrek发出了这样的感叹：</p><p><strong>三一落地的Robotruck编队模式，的确也不是完全无人驾驶，但又比特斯拉FSD明显领先</strong>，至少现在的FSD还必须要求驾驶员随时接管。</p><p>Robotruck本身AI司机的核心算法能力，以及前装量产的工程化能力，这两点放在如今任何自动驾驶玩家，甚至是头部玩家身上都是稀缺且关键的核心竞争力。</p><p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00631\">三一重工</a>这个传统工程机械巨头身上更加令人惊奇。</p><p>毕竟一直以来三一活跃在大家面前的形象，都是起重机、混凝土机械、挖掘机等等：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160932093v2069kttw7s01f4\"/><p>就算切入重卡赛道，依然是以传统柴油产品为主，主打性价比出圈，新能源重卡也是前几年起步。</p><p>短短时间内，就具备L4全栈研发、运营能力，甚至参透了Robotruck落地模式“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01520\">天机</a>”，三一背后难道另有“高人”？</p><p><strong>三一出圈，谁的内功？</strong></p><p>其实这张图片已经能看出端倪：</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7fokiaaibkadJY5NrKfbupQm6nm9o2aKConddUIeia44mwmnicrmq1cXNOic5QD1vPuSQQJtqUjicxMqu8k72Lmdg4Cg/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p>三一自动驾驶重卡车厢上印着自动驾驶圈再熟悉不过的名字：<strong>PONY</strong>——<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">小马智行</a></strong>。</p><p>L4编队模式模式落地的车，其实也是小马智行前不久刚刚亮相过的<strong>第四代自动驾驶卡车</strong>：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160954324v206285y138cig7\"/><p>重卡车头本体是小马智行和三一重卡合作的前装量产产品，L4及编队算法是小马智行最新自动驾驶全栈技术体系。</p><p>软件上早就从传统L4阵营的模块化、规则化体系，进化到了基于强化学习范式的世界模型：<strong>PonyWorld</strong>。</p><p>三大核心能力：生成场景和传感器数据、高度逼真的仿真以及驾驶行为的多维度评估；能够让AI司机学习驾驶意图和决策，逐步建立对复杂驾驶情境的理解和应对能力，也就是让模型从端到端简单的模仿学习，到理解输出轨迹和场景动态之间的因果关</p><p>而这也是小马智行通用AI司机的基座，同时也为Robotaxi提供核心能力。</p><p><strong>复用和互通</strong>布置停留在软件算法层间，硬件方案，包括的自研域控、传感器、冗余等等，同样和小马智行第七代Robotaxi高度复用。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161001463v206w19vxqbuzez\"/><p>也就是说，在全车4-6个激光雷达的条件下，自动驾驶套件BOM成本仍然比前代降低约70%——<strong>编队解决落地运营的模式问题，和Robotaxi复用的L4软硬件则解决了单车成本问题</strong>。</p><p>2026年，小马智行给出的预估是四代自动驾驶重卡很快就能投产，并达到1000辆落地规模。</p><p>根据小马智行的第三季度财报，<strong>Robotruck业务收入7250万元人民币，而三季度总营收为1.81亿人民币</strong>，Robotruck占总营收超过1/3，而这还仅仅是四代车没落地的数据。</p><p>所以，2026不光是Robotaxi落地盈利的元年，同样也是自动驾驶“第二战场”L4卡车的商业化元年。</p><p>而对于小马智行来说，两条腿的“加速度”，可能比以往任何时候都快。</p><p><strong>海外自动驾驶卡车，牌桌上还剩谁？</strong></p><p>北美一只手就能数的过来，首先是马斯克的<strong>特斯拉SemiTruck</strong>：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161005541v206cefb2g40572\"/><p>特斯拉存在多久，SemiTruck项目的历史就有多久，只不过特斯拉在卡车项目上，比跑车、皮卡等等都更加忠实马斯克“延期兑现”的习惯：截止2025年，SemiTruck交付量将将过百。</p><p>至于卡车的自动驾驶系统，还是FSD的非公开的专用测试阶段。</p><p>特斯拉自动驾驶卡车推进节奏相比乘用车慢的不是一星半点，其实也可以理解，一方面主观因素上，分散马斯克精力的事实在太多了……同时特斯拉乘用车销售基本盘又面临严峻挑战，比如纯电销冠也刚刚败给了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>。</p><p>客观因素上，北美推自动驾驶卡车，要面临着强大的卡车司机行会组织。</p><p>很有可能，老马承诺的2026年SemiTruck年产5万辆开启大规模交付，又要跳票了。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161013465v2060xz1o46zxyx\"/><p>另一个值得关注的玩家，是侯晓迪创业再出发的<strong>Bot Auto</strong>：</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7fokiaaibkadJY5NrKfbupQm6nm9o2aKCovuI5Kc1bBG2VCHIf0HM8LFffFC6RUDpN2qLvxWbb4It7uaoTc78xPg/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p>刚刚跑通无人Demo，的确惊艳，不过仍然没走到规模化落地运营阶段。</p><p>但值得注意的是，侯晓迪已经明确，Bot Auto的技术体系抛弃了传统L4的模块化、规则驱动，转而从特斯拉的数据驱动借鉴经验，迅速提高系统的迭代效率和泛化性。</p><p>当然，还有曾经高举高打进军过自动驾驶卡车、后来又低调退出，现在Robotaxi一骑绝尘的另一个自动驾驶一哥<strong>Waymo</strong>。</p><p>实际上Waymo最初也是看中了货运这条赛道降本需求迫切，Robotaxi技术又有极高的复用性，能够快速产生营收才选择切入的。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161038704v206w8i8dd8aogv\"/><p>不过北美的现实因素还包括车企方：北美卡车公司小而多，做成了地域特征明显的闭环生意，很少有积极意愿和自动驾驶公司共同开发前装量产车型。</p><p>包括倒掉的图森北美、Embark，暂停项目的Waymo等等在内，一直没拿出过真正的前装量产L4卡车。</p><p>各种因素作用，Waymo的Robotaxi业务一飞冲天，但Robotruck业务长期沉寂，直到去年年中官方第一次明确暂停投入。</p><p>不过外媒The Information前几天透露了一个未经证实的消息，说<strong>Waymo目前正在积极考虑重启自动驾驶卡车业务，瞄准干线物流场景</strong>。</p><p>回归国内视角，Robotruck赛道不算封闭港口园区场景，干线物流，包括城际中短途货运，现在呈现出的格局是——</p><p>模式上殊途同归、竞争上头部效应凸显，而背后是技术上护城河越来越明显。</p><p>模式上就是前面详细解释过的“L4编队”，成了Robotruck赛道公认最合适的落地路径，本来就以L4立身的、前期做L2的、以造车为主的等等玩家，现在几乎无一例外转向编队模式。</p><p>其中一马当先的是我们介绍过的<strong>卡尔动力</strong>，实际编队运营规模400台，单车盈亏线已经打平。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161051553v206tiyfl2mw2cd\"/><p><strong>小马智行、DeepWay</strong>现阶段已经在技术上跑通L4编队，且都有密切合作的前装量产车企，2026年紧锣密鼓迎接规模化挑战。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161052495v206opgwxznajrz\"/><p>当然还有更加“终局”的玩家<strong>零一卡车，</strong>两条长线并行，一条是卡车新势力，造车卖车持续产生营收；另一条路线是直接全无人卡车，官方直接定义为L5，先在园区内试运行，逐渐拓展到开放道路。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161054009v206j9f9u6lg786\"/><p>自动驾驶在卡车这条分赛道上，呈现出的中国玩家大胆探索，北美玩家谨慎推进的状态。</p><p>背后驱动因素是<strong>数据驱动的大模型技术浪潮</strong>。</p><p>所谓技术体系、落地模式的“收敛”，是从货运物流场景需求倒推的。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161055252v2068r1pzu4or0k\"/><p>短期来看，L4通过“编队”模式，完美平衡法规、成本、技术的不可能三角。但长期考量，真正的核心不是编队中头车的L2，而是尾随车辆的L4能力，毕竟物流是成本极度敏感的行业，唯一能行得通的自动驾驶落地是“去人”，而不是“减人”。</p><p>所以L4卡车赛道短期落地比的是找场景、找客户的能力，但归根结底，还是比能不能真去人、能不能真泛化的技术实力。</p><p>10年洗牌，Robotruck这条赛道早已经证明：只有真正的L4，L2/L3没有任何模糊空间、立足之地。</p><p>—<strong>联系</strong><strong>作者</strong>—</p><p>—<strong>完</strong>—</p><p>【智能车参考】原创内容，未经账号授权，禁止随意转载。</p><p><strong>点这里</strong>关注我，记得标星，么么哒～</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>湖南Robotruck海外出圈：L4还能这么玩？领先特斯拉太多！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n湖南Robotruck海外出圈：L4还能这么玩？领先特斯拉太多！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-05 16:06 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260105161504a6f50c2f&s=b><strong>智能车参考</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>贾浩楠 发自 副驾寺智能车参考 | 公众号 AI4Auto“比FSD领先好几步”——海外看到中国自动驾驶方案，有种惊呆的感觉…自动驾驶，还能这么玩？自动驾驶“三座大山”：成本、监管、技术的不可能三角，特斯拉Waymo一直拿不出解法，甚至还淘汰了大量初创公司。而中国玩家“巧力出奇迹”，一举扫清了L4的落地障碍：场景，是自动驾驶卡车；背后玩家更令人惊奇，竟然是从湖南娄底走出的全球工程机械“一哥”三一...</p>\n\n<a 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USD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260105161504a6f50c2f&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601009142","content_text":"贾浩楠 发自 副驾寺智能车参考 | 公众号 AI4Auto“比FSD领先好几步”——海外看到中国自动驾驶方案，有种惊呆的感觉…自动驾驶，还能这么玩？自动驾驶“三座大山”：成本、监管、技术的不可能三角，特斯拉Waymo一直拿不出解法，甚至还淘汰了大量初创公司。而中国玩家“巧力出奇迹”，一举扫清了L4的落地障碍：场景，是自动驾驶卡车；背后玩家更令人惊奇，竟然是从湖南娄底走出的全球工程机械“一哥”三一重工。在重卡市场上一鸣惊人不奇怪，毕竟重工到重卡某种程度是降维打击。但从传统制造业巨头一跃成为AI、自动驾驶圈明星，这个转身太突然也太不可思议。怎么做到的？三一拿出了什么样的L4方案让海外直呼“妙哉”的L4卡车落地方案，国内尤其是智能车参考的读者老爷一点都不陌生：L4编队模式。整个车队都是三一重卡，但头车是一辆L2卡车（当然也可以是L4），配备一位人类驾驶员，车队后续尾随的，全部都是完全无人的L4卡车。头车作用，除了满足各地区普遍的法规，最重要的职责是解决L4运营中的“断点恢复”问题，包括辅助装卸货、应对临时停车检查等等自动驾驶系统能力之外的流程性任务。车队之间采用V2V实现通信，常规路况下执行跟随策略，需要超车、绕行的场景，车队会遵从头车指示。但头车并不具备后车的操作权限，接到指令后，后车的感知、规划和具体执行，都由L4自动驾驶系统完成。法规层面和实际运营中，纯无人的自动驾驶卡车往往被局限在矿场、港口等等封闭区域内，投放规模和营收增长都受到极大限制。编队模式的第一个优势，就是通过“头车有人”彻底打破地理围栏限制。经济上，三一打造的编队可以“1拖N”，如果是“一拖四”模式，首先至少能节约80%的人工费用。编队行驶中，头车尾部会还产生一个低压区，阻力大幅减少，跟随车辆能够显著节省能耗，行业普遍实测节能10%左右。再加上自动驾驶带来的货物运损、事故率及保险费用等等下降，官方给出的数据是每公里货运成本降低29%、车队运营利润提升高达195%。货运物流行业亘古不变，决定一切矛盾、供需关系的根本出发只有一条：成本，限制条件和额外影响因素远少于Robotaxi。这也是编队模式的最大优势：相比只能减人不能去人的L2卡车，降本增效立竿见影。这也是让海外惊叹“没想到”的核心：三一用L4编队打了一个双向“剪刀差”，相比纯无人场景不受限，相比L2卡车成本大幅降低——扫清了L4卡车的落地障碍。包括特斯拉、Waymo，以前高光过又倒掉的北美自动驾驶卡车玩家等等在内，却无一尝试。况且，北美路况其实更加适合编队模式。海外智能车媒体Electrek发出了这样的感叹：三一落地的Robotruck编队模式，的确也不是完全无人驾驶，但又比特斯拉FSD明显领先，至少现在的FSD还必须要求驾驶员随时接管。Robotruck本身AI司机的核心算法能力，以及前装量产的工程化能力，这两点放在如今任何自动驾驶玩家，甚至是头部玩家身上都是稀缺且关键的核心竞争力。在三一重工这个传统工程机械巨头身上更加令人惊奇。毕竟一直以来三一活跃在大家面前的形象，都是起重机、混凝土机械、挖掘机等等：就算切入重卡赛道，依然是以传统柴油产品为主，主打性价比出圈，新能源重卡也是前几年起步。短短时间内，就具备L4全栈研发、运营能力，甚至参透了Robotruck落地模式“天机”，三一背后难道另有“高人”？三一出圈，谁的内功？其实这张图片已经能看出端倪：三一自动驾驶重卡车厢上印着自动驾驶圈再熟悉不过的名字：PONY——小马智行。L4编队模式模式落地的车，其实也是小马智行前不久刚刚亮相过的第四代自动驾驶卡车：重卡车头本体是小马智行和三一重卡合作的前装量产产品，L4及编队算法是小马智行最新自动驾驶全栈技术体系。软件上早就从传统L4阵营的模块化、规则化体系，进化到了基于强化学习范式的世界模型：PonyWorld。三大核心能力：生成场景和传感器数据、高度逼真的仿真以及驾驶行为的多维度评估；能够让AI司机学习驾驶意图和决策，逐步建立对复杂驾驶情境的理解和应对能力，也就是让模型从端到端简单的模仿学习，到理解输出轨迹和场景动态之间的因果关而这也是小马智行通用AI司机的基座，同时也为Robotaxi提供核心能力。复用和互通布置停留在软件算法层间，硬件方案，包括的自研域控、传感器、冗余等等，同样和小马智行第七代Robotaxi高度复用。也就是说，在全车4-6个激光雷达的条件下，自动驾驶套件BOM成本仍然比前代降低约70%——编队解决落地运营的模式问题，和Robotaxi复用的L4软硬件则解决了单车成本问题。2026年，小马智行给出的预估是四代自动驾驶重卡很快就能投产，并达到1000辆落地规模。根据小马智行的第三季度财报，Robotruck业务收入7250万元人民币，而三季度总营收为1.81亿人民币，Robotruck占总营收超过1/3，而这还仅仅是四代车没落地的数据。所以，2026不光是Robotaxi落地盈利的元年，同样也是自动驾驶“第二战场”L4卡车的商业化元年。而对于小马智行来说，两条腿的“加速度”，可能比以往任何时候都快。海外自动驾驶卡车，牌桌上还剩谁？北美一只手就能数的过来，首先是马斯克的特斯拉SemiTruck：特斯拉存在多久，SemiTruck项目的历史就有多久，只不过特斯拉在卡车项目上，比跑车、皮卡等等都更加忠实马斯克“延期兑现”的习惯：截止2025年，SemiTruck交付量将将过百。至于卡车的自动驾驶系统，还是FSD的非公开的专用测试阶段。特斯拉自动驾驶卡车推进节奏相比乘用车慢的不是一星半点，其实也可以理解，一方面主观因素上，分散马斯克精力的事实在太多了……同时特斯拉乘用车销售基本盘又面临严峻挑战，比如纯电销冠也刚刚败给了比亚迪。客观因素上，北美推自动驾驶卡车，要面临着强大的卡车司机行会组织。很有可能，老马承诺的2026年SemiTruck年产5万辆开启大规模交付，又要跳票了。另一个值得关注的玩家，是侯晓迪创业再出发的Bot Auto：刚刚跑通无人Demo，的确惊艳，不过仍然没走到规模化落地运营阶段。但值得注意的是，侯晓迪已经明确，Bot Auto的技术体系抛弃了传统L4的模块化、规则驱动，转而从特斯拉的数据驱动借鉴经验，迅速提高系统的迭代效率和泛化性。当然，还有曾经高举高打进军过自动驾驶卡车、后来又低调退出，现在Robotaxi一骑绝尘的另一个自动驾驶一哥Waymo。实际上Waymo最初也是看中了货运这条赛道降本需求迫切，Robotaxi技术又有极高的复用性，能够快速产生营收才选择切入的。不过北美的现实因素还包括车企方：北美卡车公司小而多，做成了地域特征明显的闭环生意，很少有积极意愿和自动驾驶公司共同开发前装量产车型。包括倒掉的图森北美、Embark，暂停项目的Waymo等等在内，一直没拿出过真正的前装量产L4卡车。各种因素作用，Waymo的Robotaxi业务一飞冲天，但Robotruck业务长期沉寂，直到去年年中官方第一次明确暂停投入。不过外媒The Information前几天透露了一个未经证实的消息，说Waymo目前正在积极考虑重启自动驾驶卡车业务，瞄准干线物流场景。回归国内视角，Robotruck赛道不算封闭港口园区场景，干线物流，包括城际中短途货运，现在呈现出的格局是——模式上殊途同归、竞争上头部效应凸显，而背后是技术上护城河越来越明显。模式上就是前面详细解释过的“L4编队”，成了Robotruck赛道公认最合适的落地路径，本来就以L4立身的、前期做L2的、以造车为主的等等玩家，现在几乎无一例外转向编队模式。其中一马当先的是我们介绍过的卡尔动力，实际编队运营规模400台，单车盈亏线已经打平。小马智行、DeepWay现阶段已经在技术上跑通L4编队，且都有密切合作的前装量产车企，2026年紧锣密鼓迎接规模化挑战。当然还有更加“终局”的玩家零一卡车，两条长线并行，一条是卡车新势力，造车卖车持续产生营收；另一条路线是直接全无人卡车，官方直接定义为L5，先在园区内试运行，逐渐拓展到开放道路。自动驾驶在卡车这条分赛道上，呈现出的中国玩家大胆探索，北美玩家谨慎推进的状态。背后驱动因素是数据驱动的大模型技术浪潮。所谓技术体系、落地模式的“收敛”，是从货运物流场景需求倒推的。短期来看，L4通过“编队”模式，完美平衡法规、成本、技术的不可能三角。但长期考量，真正的核心不是编队中头车的L2，而是尾随车辆的L4能力，毕竟物流是成本极度敏感的行业，唯一能行得通的自动驾驶落地是“去人”，而不是“减人”。所以L4卡车赛道短期落地比的是找场景、找客户的能力，但归根结底，还是比能不能真去人、能不能真泛化的技术实力。10年洗牌，Robotruck这条赛道早已经证明：只有真正的L4，L2/L3没有任何模糊空间、立足之地。—联系作者——完—【智能车参考】原创内容，未经账号授权，禁止随意转载。点这里关注我，记得标星，么么哒～","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600031":1.93,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":0.9,"06031":1.93}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511733618606392,"gmtCreate":1765961926118,"gmtModify":1765961929111,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"亏钱亏急眼了","listText":"亏钱亏急眼了","text":"亏钱亏急眼了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511733618606392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}