特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

特斯拉的最大风险：归于平庸

环球市场播报01-26

一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值，特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。无论是负面消息，还是此起彼伏的竞争警报，似乎都难以真正撼动其股价。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战，或许并非来自某个对手，而是一种更难启齿的状态：平庸感。　　核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年，比亚迪在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车（Cox Automotive）的...

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畜牧教主马斯克
·01-26
有马圣在特斯拉不会平庸，因为畜牧业很成功[开心] 扁的说圆的各位信徒也会说马圣是对的，就是这么成功
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重庆老赵
·01-26
老马会平庸？
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Johnsonk
·01-26
可笑
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Y车型，试图在电动车税收抵免退坡后重振需求，但2025年第四季度在美国市场的销量仍下滑15%。\n　　特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文，释放了又一个隐晦的信号：特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD，此后仅提供按月订阅服务。\n　　FSD即完全自动驾驶（监管版），本质上仍是一套高级驾驶辅助系统，并不具备完全自主驾驶能力。多年来，它一直以选装升级的形式出售，目前一次性购买价格为8000美元。自2021年起，特斯拉推出订阅方案，当前月费为99美元。\n　　特斯拉的一举一动总能引发热议，这次也不例外，究其根源还是马斯克过往的种种豪言。2020年，他曾放话称，随着软件持续迭代优化，这套当时还未标注“监管版”的FSD选装包，价值将水涨船高，最终有望突破10万美元大关。然而，现实世界中的科技产品，尤其是依赖芯片、被装进四个轮子里的技术，价值几乎总是沿着相反方向演进，而且往往速度不慢。理论上，更好的软件或许能改变这一轨迹，但特斯拉自身的行动显然并未印证这一点。\n　　FSD的定价并非一成不变：2019年时售价一度低至5000美元，随后几经上调，最高涨到1.5万美元。订阅模式推出后，价格一路回落至如今水平。如今，特斯拉索性取消了买断选项，尽管这一方式相当于提前锁定近十年的订阅收入。\n　　这并不像一项会不断升值的资产，更像一项普通服务：价格随技术能力、竞争格局与市场环境而浮动。\n　　这一转向的背景，是英伟达在拉斯维加斯消费电子展上掀起的涟漪。这家芯片巨头推出了开源人工智能模型Alpamayo，用于开发自动驾驶汽车，并将其与英伟达现有的软硬件工具整合，为车企提供一套“即装即用”的高级驾驶辅助系统解决方案，未来甚至有望拓展至完全自动驾驶。\n　　马斯克回应称，英伟达不过是在复制特斯拉的路线。从某种程度上来说，确实如此。英伟达采用的机器学习自动驾驶方案与特斯拉思路相近，同样需要花费漫长时间，在真实道路环境中反复验证。\n　　但更深层的问题在于，一家并不打算造车的科技公司，正试图打造自动驾驶领域的“安卓系统”，向所有愿意付费的车企开放。这为传统车企提供了一条低资本投入的捷径，却也意味着，一个持续增长的车辆价值来源将不可避免地外溢给一家市值已超过全球汽车产业总和的供应商。对底特律而言，这是一把双刃剑，尤其是在其价值体系仍高度依赖内燃机的背景下。\n　　对特斯拉而言，情况可能更糟。随着电动车业务明显受挫，支撑其估值的，越来越多来自市场对其在自动驾驶领域建立统治地位的预期。特斯拉的股票，本质上是一种叙事。正如自动驾驶专家、风投机构New Industry Management联合创始人亚历克斯·罗伊（Alex Roy）所言，特斯拉拥有强大的“叙事主导权”。马斯克塑造公众对汽车科技认知的能力之强，甚至延伸到对相关术语本身的定义，以至于不断逼近的竞争，也未能撼动特斯拉200倍以上的市盈率。\n　　但竞争往往伴随着另一种更隐秘的力量：大宗商品化。近一年前，比亚迪已在中国市场将高级驾驶辅助系统列为多数车型的标配；如今英伟达的入局，又为汽车功能“从高价噱头沦为标配”的老路添上了新注脚。别忘了，作为FSD前身的Autopilot，曾经也是售价数千美元的选装项，如今早已成为标配。在经历多轮降价后，FSD转而完全采用可随时取消的订阅模式，本身就是一种信号。\n　　如果特斯拉的技术优势无可匹敌，这种变化或许不足为惧。但正如我此前所写，特斯拉对其所谓“定义行业、引领全球”的核心技术，一直披露有限，令人费解。\n　　更何况，距离特斯拉在奥斯汀推出FSD自动驾驶出租车一周年的节点仅剩五个月。必须坦率地说，与马斯克此前的承诺相比，那次“上线”近乎滑稽，而公司最近又一次错过了移除前排安全驾驶员的时间节点。\n　　如果这种不温不火的节奏持续到2026年6月，那些长期看多特斯拉的投资者，是否会开始对“特斯拉真正引领自动驾驶”的叙事产生动摇？罗伊指出，只要不发生灾难性事故，特斯拉仍有空间展示进展、维系叙事，比如在保留安全员的情况下，将服务扩展至更多城市。考虑到特斯拉近乎宗教般的号召力，这或许已足以托住股价。马斯克当然也可以进一步加码“机器人叙事”，只是那条赛道上，同样已不乏竞争者。\n　　但除了信徒之外，外界已然看清：特斯拉在无人驾驶领域许下的种种承诺，与其实际进展相去甚远；与此同时，市场竞争日益激烈，行业“常态化”的苗头也已显现。既然特斯拉已在电动车领域失去无可争议的领导地位和定价权，又凭什么假定，它能在新领域免疫于同样的规律？\n　　企业可以在某个（任何）领域大获成功，但当竞争加剧、光环褪色时，它仍可能辜负市场的炽热期望。评估特斯拉的自动驾驶业务时，决定性的不只是市场份额假设，也在于价格与定价能力。在如此高估值的状态下，最大的风险或许并非轰然坠落，而是缓慢而熟悉地，滑向平庸。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":525992377102680,"gmtCreate":1769441073920,"gmtModify":1769441215292,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3e7f6253c885de8bad6403055b76aab","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3560418186602071","idStr":"3560418186602071"},"htmlText":"有马圣在特斯拉不会平庸，因为畜牧业很成功[开心]&nbsp; 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