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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
04-21 19:24
热泵,几万?有具体的金额么?张口就来
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
04-16
急成这样也是难为你了
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
04-16
知道怕就行了 准备准备平仓吧
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
04-07
当年没让他发行,记到现在
小摩绩前唱空特斯拉,警告股价恐暴跌60%
Brinkma及其团队目前预计特斯拉第一季度每股收益为0.30美元,低于此前预期的0.43美元,而市场普遍预期为0.38美元。他指出,尽管交付量增长乏力,但“令人难以置信的是”,特斯拉当前股价仍比2022年6月交付量达到峰值时高出50%以上。据悉,特拉斯将于4月22日公布一季度财报。由于一季度交付量不及预期,特拉斯股价近期走低。
小摩绩前唱空特斯拉,警告股价恐暴跌60%
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
02-27
你非要自己骗自己,那也没有办法
10城 VS 1城,3000辆 VS44辆!Waymo狂奔,特斯拉自动驾驶梦碎?
约 3000 辆Waymo 当前运营车辆仅 44 辆特斯拉奥斯汀运营车辆据“无人驾驶出租车追踪网”数据,目前奥斯汀仅有44辆特斯拉无人车在跑。Waymo的车辆早已实现多年无安全员运营,而特斯拉近期虽着手取消安全监督员,但推进十分迟缓。目前,监管机构正在调查Waymo车辆在校车周边的行驶表现,以及一起低速撞伤儿童的事故。显然,目前的天平,正重重地倾向Waymo一端。
10城 VS 1城,3000辆 VS44辆!Waymo狂奔,特斯拉自动驾驶梦碎?
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
02-17
体验过国内自动驾驶后,其他车企想实现,简直是在做梦
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
02-17
假数据是张口就来
马斯克又翻车!特斯拉无人出租运营8个月可用率仅19%
快科技2月17日消息,今天,据报道,特斯拉于8个月前在奥斯汀推出的Robotaxi无人出租车服务,现阶段运营数据远未达到马斯克此前的承诺。其在奥斯汀地区的服务可用率仅为19%,多项核心运营指标均未达标。奥斯汀与旧金山湾区合计的特斯拉无人出租车数量,独立追踪数据显示仅约200辆,与马斯克宣称的“远超500辆”差距显著。在服务可用性上,奥斯汀的特斯拉Robotaxi过去48小时仅19%运营时间可正常使用,81%的时间处于不可用状态。
马斯克又翻车!特斯拉无人出租运营8个月可用率仅19%
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
02-13
以后只有一个巨头,那就是特斯拉
利润率仅为同侪零头,特斯拉的“美股七巨头”标签还能贴多久?
特斯拉与其他六巨头的财务鸿沟急剧拉大:营业利润率不足5%(同行11%-60%),且是唯一盈利下滑的成员。2026年资本支出翻倍至200亿美元将致自由现金流首次转负,而同行在同等巨额支出下仍将产生数百亿正现金流。马斯克或需通过SpaceX IPO融资以支撑其AI雄心。
利润率仅为同侪零头,特斯拉的“美股七巨头”标签还能贴多久?
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
02-12
刹车失灵搞不动,就换一个思路继续黑
特斯拉国内频发断电故障引车主不满 官方回应态度遭质疑
近日,特斯拉在国内接连发生多起行驶中突然断电的故障事件,引发车主强烈不满。多位车主反映车辆在高速行驶时突然失去动力,存在严重安全隐患。据悉,部分车主在向特斯拉售后反映问题时,仅得到简单检修处理,未获得官方正式道歉或问题说明。车主们对特斯拉处理问题的态度表示心寒,认为企业缺乏对消费者安全的基本重视。
特斯拉国内频发断电故障引车主不满 官方回应态度遭质疑
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Johnsonk
Johnsonk
·
02-09
当年不是说必然倒闭么?怎么做成万亿市值的公司了?
特斯拉的机器人革命也救不了它了?
期间,特斯拉一度暴跌约 40%。特斯拉许下的多项承诺,最终可能都不会像管理层宣传的那样实现。坦白说,感觉特斯拉才开始炒作机器人领域不到一年,但实际上,公司早在2021 年 8 月就开始提这个概念了。在当年的特斯拉 AI 日,马斯克公布了 “特斯拉机器人” 的构想。时至今日,特斯拉技术仍停留在L2 级辅助驾驶,远落后于 Waymo 的 L4 级自动驾驶。乍一看,这对特斯拉似乎是巨大机遇。而特斯拉 2025 年营收已达 948.3 亿美元。
特斯拉的机器人革命也救不了它了?
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准备准备平仓吧","listText":"知道怕就行了 准备准备平仓吧","text":"知道怕就行了 准备准备平仓吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554098376814864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551015087248120,"gmtCreate":1775546999819,"gmtModify":1775547002069,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"当年没让他发行,记到现在","listText":"当年没让他发行,记到现在","text":"当年没让他发行,记到现在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551015087248120","repostId":"2625708989","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625708989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775540846,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2625708989?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-07 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他指出,尽管交付量增长乏力,但“令人难以置信的是”,特斯拉当前股价仍比2022年6月交付量达到峰值时高出50%以上。</p><p>展望未来,摩根大通认为特斯拉的投资利好因素,例如其高度差异化的商业模式、有吸引力的产品组合和领先的技术,无法完全抵消其高于平均水平的执行风险、日益激烈的竞争、品牌形象争议不断以及估值所带来的影响。</p><p>据悉,特拉斯将于4月22日公布一季度财报。由于一季度交付量不及预期,特拉斯股价近期走低。该股周一跌超2%,报352.82美元,今年以来下跌22%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小摩绩前唱空特斯拉,警告股价恐暴跌60%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小摩绩前唱空特斯拉,警告股价恐暴跌60%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-07 13:47 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1425373.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,在特斯拉(TSLA.US)发布第一季度财报前,长期看空特斯拉的摩根大通周一重申了对这家电动汽车和自动驾驶公司的“减持”评级。分析师Ryan Brinkman指出,特斯拉第一季度的交付报告表现不佳,且储能设备的安装量也出现了同比下降。Brinkma及其团队目前预计特斯拉第一季度每股收益为0.30美元,低于此前预期的0.43美元,而市场普遍预期为0.38美元。Brinkman表示:...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1425373.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES 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\"B\" (USD) ACC","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1425373.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625708989","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,在特斯拉(TSLA.US)发布第一季度财报前,长期看空特斯拉的摩根大通周一重申了对这家电动汽车和自动驾驶公司的“减持”评级。分析师Ryan Brinkman指出,特斯拉第一季度的交付报告表现不佳,且储能设备的安装量也出现了同比下降。Brinkma及其团队目前预计特斯拉第一季度每股收益为0.30美元,低于此前预期的0.43美元,而市场普遍预期为0.38美元。Brinkman表示:“我们仍然认为特斯拉股价将下跌60%,至我们设定的2026年12月145美元目标价,并建议投资者对特斯拉股票保持高度谨慎。尽管特斯拉股价上涨反映出市场对其未来数年盈利预期的大幅增强,但与此同时,至少到2030年前,所有业绩指标的普遍预期都出现了大幅下降,因此,投资者要充分考虑到执行风险以及资金的时间价值。” 他指出,尽管交付量增长乏力,但“令人难以置信的是”,特斯拉当前股价仍比2022年6月交付量达到峰值时高出50%以上。展望未来,摩根大通认为特斯拉的投资利好因素,例如其高度差异化的商业模式、有吸引力的产品组合和领先的技术,无法完全抵消其高于平均水平的执行风险、日益激烈的竞争、品牌形象争议不断以及估值所带来的影响。据悉,特拉斯将于4月22日公布一季度财报。由于一季度交付量不及预期,特拉斯股价近期走低。该股周一跌超2%,报352.82美元,今年以来下跌22%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLA":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"GOOG":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"NVDA":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"META":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"JPMO":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"AMZN":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSDD":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"07766":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de4bb6ae7ead34f761208585a438824","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4093596070918460","idStr":"4093596070918460"},"content":"一个笨蛋分析师,投资回报率是-1.6%","text":"一个笨蛋分析师,投资回报率是-1.6%","html":"一个笨蛋分析师,投资回报率是-1.6%"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537005272646040,"gmtCreate":1772125775069,"gmtModify":1772125777386,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你非要自己骗自己,那也没有办法","listText":"你非要自己骗自己,那也没有办法","text":"你非要自己骗自己,那也没有办法","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537005272646040","repostId":"2614202967","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2614202967","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772121691,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614202967?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-27 00:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"10城 VS 1城,3000辆 VS44辆!Waymo狂奔,特斯拉自动驾驶梦碎?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614202967","media":"汽车产业前线观察","summary":"约 3000 辆Waymo 当前运营车辆仅 44 辆特斯拉奥斯汀运营车辆据“无人驾驶出租车追踪网”数据,目前奥斯汀仅有44辆特斯拉无人车在跑。Waymo的车辆早已实现多年无安全员运营,而特斯拉近期虽着手取消安全监督员,但推进十分迟缓。目前,监管机构正在调查Waymo车辆在校车周边的行驶表现,以及一起低速撞伤儿童的事故。显然,目前的天平,正重重地倾向Waymo一端。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260227001215979v163wae8fbji02i\"/><p>就在本周二,当Waymo宣布在达拉斯、休斯顿等四座<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300778\">新城市</a>开放服务时,另一个名字却显得格格不入——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。一边是10座城市的真实运营网络,另一边是埃隆·马斯克口中那个“迟迟未到”的未来。</p><p><strong>01. 扩张:从“试点”到“常态”的加速</strong></p><p>Waymo的扩张速度正在刷新行业的认知。自2009年起步以来,这家隶属于字母表公司的企业,终于在2025年底迎来了爆发。</p><p>数据显示,去年年初,Waymo在旧金山、洛杉矶和菲尼克斯的周订单量仅为20万单;而到了2025年底,这一数字在六座城市中已飙升至40万单。更令人震惊的是其目标:今年年底前,周订单量突破100万单,并将业务拓展至全球至少20座城市。</p><p>本周的扩张公告中,达拉斯、休斯顿、圣安东尼奥和奥兰多正式加入Waymo版图。值得注意的是,这次官宣中只字未提<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>(Uber)。此前,Waymo部分车辆需通过优步平台呼叫,但如今看来,Waymo似乎已底气十足地认为:<strong>自己完全有能力独立实现规模化,无需他人搀扶。</strong></p><p><strong>02. 对比:马斯克的“预期”与现实的“骨感”</strong></p><p>将目光转向特斯拉,画面则截然不同。去年夏天,特斯拉的无人驾驶出租车服务终于在奥斯汀上线,但随后的规模化进程却缓慢得令人咋舌。</p><p><strong>约 3000 辆</strong>Waymo 当前运营车辆</p><p><strong>仅 44 辆</strong>特斯拉奥斯汀运营车辆</p><p>据“无人驾驶出租车追踪网”数据,目前奥斯汀仅有44辆特斯拉无人车在跑。回想去年10月,马斯克曾信誓旦旦地预测:到2025年底,特斯拉将在奥斯汀部署500辆无人车,甚至覆盖美国半数人口。然而现实是,该公司仍仅在奥斯汀运营着寥寥无几的Model Y,且多次未能兑现类似承诺。</p><p>更关键的差距在于“去安全员”的进度。Waymo的车辆早已实现多年无安全员运营,而特斯拉近期虽着手取消安全监督员,但推进十分迟缓。在自动驾驶领域,“有安全员”和“无安全员”之间,隔着整个商业模式的鸿沟。</p><p><strong>03. 隐忧:规模化的挑战从未停止</strong></p><p>当然,Waymo的狂飙并非没有隐忧。雄心勃勃的全球扩张计划绝非一蹴而就。面对各地五花八门的法规,以及在新市场搭建车队管理、充电体系的重任,Waymo仍需如履薄冰。</p><p>此外,安全问题始终是悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。目前,监管机构正在调查Waymo车辆在校车周边的行驶表现,以及一起低速撞伤儿童的事故。在新市场投放几辆车是一回事,将规模扩大到数千辆并确保绝对安全,则是另一番挑战。</p><p>“特斯拉支持者常辩称,凭借庞大的保有量和纯视觉方案,其规模化能力将超越Waymo。或许未来某天他们会被证明是对的,但从当下的时间轴来看,实际发展趋势却截然相反。”</p><p><strong>结语:实干与口号的终极较量</strong></p><p>自动驾驶的下半场,不再是比谁的发布会更炫酷,而是比谁的车队跑得更多、更稳、更安全。</p><p>Waymo用10座城市的实地运营证明了“渐进式路线”的可行性,而特斯拉则仍在为兑现马斯克的宏大预言而挣扎。在这场“现实”与“幻想”的博弈中,时间和里程数是最公正的裁判。</p><p>对于普通用户而言,谁能真正提供安全、便捷的无人出行服务,谁就是赢家。显然,目前的天平,正重重地倾向Waymo一端。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10城 VS 1城,3000辆 VS44辆!Waymo狂奔,特斯拉自动驾驶梦碎?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10城 VS 1城,3000辆 VS44辆!Waymo狂奔,特斯拉自动驾驶梦碎?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-27 00:01 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227001218954224aa&s=b><strong>汽车产业前线观察</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>就在本周二,当Waymo宣布在达拉斯、休斯顿等四座新城市开放服务时,另一个名字却显得格格不入——特斯拉。一边是10座城市的真实运营网络,另一边是埃隆·马斯克口中那个“迟迟未到”的未来。01. 扩张:从“试点”到“常态”的加速Waymo的扩张速度正在刷新行业的认知。自2009年起步以来,这家隶属于字母表公司的企业,终于在2025年底迎来了爆发。数据显示,去年年初,Waymo在旧金山、洛杉矶和菲尼克斯...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227001218954224aa&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","CRSH":"做空TSLA 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227001218954224aa&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2614202967","content_text":"就在本周二,当Waymo宣布在达拉斯、休斯顿等四座新城市开放服务时,另一个名字却显得格格不入——特斯拉。一边是10座城市的真实运营网络,另一边是埃隆·马斯克口中那个“迟迟未到”的未来。01. 扩张:从“试点”到“常态”的加速Waymo的扩张速度正在刷新行业的认知。自2009年起步以来,这家隶属于字母表公司的企业,终于在2025年底迎来了爆发。数据显示,去年年初,Waymo在旧金山、洛杉矶和菲尼克斯的周订单量仅为20万单;而到了2025年底,这一数字在六座城市中已飙升至40万单。更令人震惊的是其目标:今年年底前,周订单量突破100万单,并将业务拓展至全球至少20座城市。本周的扩张公告中,达拉斯、休斯顿、圣安东尼奥和奥兰多正式加入Waymo版图。值得注意的是,这次官宣中只字未提优步(Uber)。此前,Waymo部分车辆需通过优步平台呼叫,但如今看来,Waymo似乎已底气十足地认为:自己完全有能力独立实现规模化,无需他人搀扶。02. 对比:马斯克的“预期”与现实的“骨感”将目光转向特斯拉,画面则截然不同。去年夏天,特斯拉的无人驾驶出租车服务终于在奥斯汀上线,但随后的规模化进程却缓慢得令人咋舌。约 3000 辆Waymo 当前运营车辆仅 44 辆特斯拉奥斯汀运营车辆据“无人驾驶出租车追踪网”数据,目前奥斯汀仅有44辆特斯拉无人车在跑。回想去年10月,马斯克曾信誓旦旦地预测:到2025年底,特斯拉将在奥斯汀部署500辆无人车,甚至覆盖美国半数人口。然而现实是,该公司仍仅在奥斯汀运营着寥寥无几的Model Y,且多次未能兑现类似承诺。更关键的差距在于“去安全员”的进度。Waymo的车辆早已实现多年无安全员运营,而特斯拉近期虽着手取消安全监督员,但推进十分迟缓。在自动驾驶领域,“有安全员”和“无安全员”之间,隔着整个商业模式的鸿沟。03. 隐忧:规模化的挑战从未停止当然,Waymo的狂飙并非没有隐忧。雄心勃勃的全球扩张计划绝非一蹴而就。面对各地五花八门的法规,以及在新市场搭建车队管理、充电体系的重任,Waymo仍需如履薄冰。此外,安全问题始终是悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。目前,监管机构正在调查Waymo车辆在校车周边的行驶表现,以及一起低速撞伤儿童的事故。在新市场投放几辆车是一回事,将规模扩大到数千辆并确保绝对安全,则是另一番挑战。“特斯拉支持者常辩称,凭借庞大的保有量和纯视觉方案,其规模化能力将超越Waymo。或许未来某天他们会被证明是对的,但从当下的时间轴来看,实际发展趋势却截然相反。”结语:实干与口号的终极较量自动驾驶的下半场,不再是比谁的发布会更炫酷,而是比谁的车队跑得更多、更稳、更安全。Waymo用10座城市的实地运营证明了“渐进式路线”的可行性,而特斯拉则仍在为兑现马斯克的宏大预言而挣扎。在这场“现实”与“幻想”的博弈中,时间和里程数是最公正的裁判。对于普通用户而言,谁能真正提供安全、便捷的无人出行服务,谁就是赢家。显然,目前的天平,正重重地倾向Waymo一端。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.91,"TESL":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548965887849927","authorId":"3548965887849927","name":"yifannafiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74f50f8831724d4755944ec42127d83","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3548965887849927","idStr":"3548965887849927"},"content":"楼上那个“就算…估计…”句式好,可以一直用下去,只要别人在进步,你就可以一直估计,估计错了也没关系,把人家实现了的放在“就是”后面,再把人家的发展目标放在“估计”后面就可以了。一时丢人一时爽,一世丢人一式爽","text":"楼上那个“就算…估计…”句式好,可以一直用下去,只要别人在进步,你就可以一直估计,估计错了也没关系,把人家实现了的放在“就是”后面,再把人家的发展目标放在“估计”后面就可以了。一时丢人一时爽,一世丢人一式爽","html":"楼上那个“就算…估计…”句式好,可以一直用下去,只要别人在进步,你就可以一直估计,估计错了也没关系,把人家实现了的放在“就是”后面,再把人家的发展目标放在“估计”后面就可以了。一时丢人一时爽,一世丢人一式爽"},{"author":{"id":"4089292669533110","authorId":"4089292669533110","name":"无妨_6288","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e6c1aa128ea2d5db1ebd583ea79c727","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4089292669533110","idStr":"4089292669533110"},"content":"你再吹老马也不会理你,反而觉得你是个小丑🤡","text":"你再吹老马也不会理你,反而觉得你是个小丑🤡","html":"你再吹老马也不会理你,反而觉得你是个小丑🤡"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533785518686256,"gmtCreate":1771339699139,"gmtModify":1771339701673,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"体验过国内自动驾驶后,其他车企想实现,简直是在做梦","listText":"体验过国内自动驾驶后,其他车企想实现,简直是在做梦","text":"体验过国内自动驾驶后,其他车企想实现,简直是在做梦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533785518686256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533669725324920,"gmtCreate":1771309546816,"gmtModify":1771309549398,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"假数据是张口就来","listText":"假数据是张口就来","text":"假数据是张口就来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533669725324920","repostId":"2612439470","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612439470","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771298801,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612439470?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-17 11:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克又翻车!特斯拉无人出租运营8个月可用率仅19%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612439470","media":"快科技","summary":"快科技2月17日消息,今天,据报道,特斯拉于8个月前在奥斯汀推出的Robotaxi无人出租车服务,现阶段运营数据远未达到马斯克此前的承诺。其在奥斯汀地区的服务可用率仅为19%,多项核心运营指标均未达标。奥斯汀与旧金山湾区合计的特斯拉无人出租车数量,独立追踪数据显示仅约200辆,与马斯克宣称的“远超500辆”差距显著。在服务可用性上,奥斯汀的特斯拉Robotaxi过去48小时仅19%运营时间可正常使用,81%的时间处于不可用状态。","content":"<html><body><article><p>快科技2月17日消息,今天,据报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>于8个月前在奥斯汀推出的Robotaxi无人出租车服务,现阶段运营数据远未达到马斯克此前的承诺。</p><p><strong>其在奥斯汀地区的服务可用率仅为19%,多项核心运营指标均未达标。</strong></p><p>马斯克曾承诺,2025年底前在奥斯汀投放500辆Robotaxi,然而据Robotaxi Tracker数据,<strong>目前奥斯汀实际仅有42辆该车型,即便马斯克此前悄悄将目标下调至60辆,仍未实现。</strong></p><p>奥斯汀与旧金山湾区合计的特斯拉无人出租车数量,独立追踪数据显示仅约200辆,与马斯克宣称的“远超500辆”差距显著。</p><p><strong>在服务可用性上,奥斯汀的特斯拉Robotaxi过去48小时仅19%运营时间可正常使用,81%的时间处于不可用状态。</strong></p><p>且该服务在降雨天气会全面停工,而奥斯汀年均降雨超80天,进一步影响服务效率。</p><p>安全层面,特斯拉向美国国家公路交通安全管理局报告的数据显示,其Robotaxi在配备安全监督员的情况下,<strong>碰撞率为人类驾驶员的9倍,行驶50万英里发生9起事故,平均每5.5万英里就有一起事故。</strong></p><p>马斯克此前承诺的完全无人监管乘车服务,实际落地后不仅有追踪车辆跟随,且仅在小范围区域试行,目前该服务已从追踪系统中消失。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260217113805666d152wkc0o5p2dvt\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克又翻车!特斯拉无人出租运营8个月可用率仅19%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克又翻车!特斯拉无人出租运营8个月可用率仅19%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-17 11:26 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260217113807a7030ffc&s=b><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快科技2月17日消息,今天,据报道,特斯拉于8个月前在奥斯汀推出的Robotaxi无人出租车服务,现阶段运营数据远未达到马斯克此前的承诺。其在奥斯汀地区的服务可用率仅为19%,多项核心运营指标均未达标。马斯克曾承诺,2025年底前在奥斯汀投放500辆Robotaxi,然而据Robotaxi Tracker数据,目前奥斯汀实际仅有42辆该车型,即便马斯克此前悄悄将目标下调至60辆,仍未实现。奥斯汀与...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260217113807a7030ffc&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME 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Tracker数据,目前奥斯汀实际仅有42辆该车型,即便马斯克此前悄悄将目标下调至60辆,仍未实现。奥斯汀与旧金山湾区合计的特斯拉无人出租车数量,独立追踪数据显示仅约200辆,与马斯克宣称的“远超500辆”差距显著。在服务可用性上,奥斯汀的特斯拉Robotaxi过去48小时仅19%运营时间可正常使用,81%的时间处于不可用状态。且该服务在降雨天气会全面停工,而奥斯汀年均降雨超80天,进一步影响服务效率。安全层面,特斯拉向美国国家公路交通安全管理局报告的数据显示,其Robotaxi在配备安全监督员的情况下,碰撞率为人类驾驶员的9倍,行驶50万英里发生9起事故,平均每5.5万英里就有一起事故。马斯克此前承诺的完全无人监管乘车服务,实际落地后不仅有追踪车辆跟随,且仅在小范围区域试行,目前该服务已从追踪系统中消失。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLZ":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSLS":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"UFO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":532369934472088,"gmtCreate":1770992212266,"gmtModify":1770992214573,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"以后只有一个巨头,那就是特斯拉","listText":"以后只有一个巨头,那就是特斯拉","text":"以后只有一个巨头,那就是特斯拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/532369934472088","repostId":"2611154500","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2611154500","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1770991315,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2611154500?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-13 22:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"利润率仅为同侪零头,特斯拉的“美股七巨头”标签还能贴多久?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2611154500","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特斯拉与其他六巨头的财务鸿沟急剧拉大:营业利润率不足5%(同行11%-60%),且是唯一盈利下滑的成员。2026年资本支出翻倍至200亿美元将致自由现金流首次转负,而同行在同等巨额支出下仍将产生数百亿正现金流。马斯克或需通过SpaceX IPO融资以支撑其AI雄心。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>一直是“美股七巨头”中的异类,而其近期试图向人工智能转型的努力,反而进一步加剧了这种格格不入。尽管该标签主要基于股价表现,但随着基本面数据的恶化,特斯拉与Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等科技巨头之间的差距正在迅速拉大。</p>\n<p>据彭博专栏作家Liam Denning分析,特斯拉估值的飙升在很大程度上掩盖了其基本面的疲软。尽管该股享有极高的远期市盈率,但这在很大程度上是因为盈利预期的下降,而非增长的驱动。在过去三年中,特斯拉是“七巨头”中唯一一家报告盈利实际下降的公司,这种估值倍数的扩张更多反映了股价与日益恶化的基本面之间日益严重的脱节。</p>\n<p>这种分化在现金流表现上尤为显著。<strong>随着特斯拉计划在2026年将资本支出增加一倍以上至约200亿美元,以支持其自动驾驶和机器人业务,公司自由现金流预计将自2018年以来首次转为负值。</strong>相比之下,Alphabet等同行即便在巨额支出的情况下,预计仍将在同年产生<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元的自由现金流,凸显了两者在财务实力上的巨大鸿沟。</p>\n<p>面对资金消耗的加剧,特斯拉向投资者坦言可能需要“额外资金”。这也引发了市场对其首席执行官马斯克商业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00776\">帝国</a>重组的关注。随着特斯拉在这一精英集团中的地位日益受到质疑,马斯克可能更需要通过SpaceX等旗下其他业务的资本运作来寻求新的资金支持。</p>\n<h2><strong>估值虚高与基本面背离</strong></h2>\n<p>“美股七巨头”这一概念诞生于2023年,最初用于描述领涨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的七只股票。然而,这一标签在很大程度上已成为大型科技股的代名词,这使得特斯拉的入选显得颇为突兀。特斯拉的主营业务本质上是电动汽车及电池组的制造与销售,属于制造业范畴。相比之下,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>虽然销售消费电子产品,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>虽然拥有电商平台,但两者均被公认为盈利能力极强的信息技术巨头。</p>\n<p>尽管特斯拉在电动汽车设计和辅助驾驶系统方面拥有技术优势,但其更具科技色彩的业务——如Robotaxi(自动驾驶出租车)、人形机器人和芯片制造计划——目前更多处于研发阶段,而非成熟的商业业务。</p>\n<p><strong>特斯拉之所以能跻身该行列,主要归因于其高昂的估值,但这恰恰也是其与其他成员最大的不同之处。</strong>据彭博数据,特斯拉的高远期市盈率更多反映了投资者对其转型的梦想,而非现实业绩。过去三年其估值倍数的扩张,有三分之二可以用盈利预期的下降来解释。作为该集团中唯一盈利下滑的成员,特斯拉的基本面支撑显得愈发薄弱。</p>\n<h2><strong>自由现金流不在同一量级</strong></h2>\n<p>现金流是衡量企业实力的真实指标,而在这一点上,特斯拉与其他六家巨头完全不在一个量级。过去五年中,特斯拉的自由现金流总计约为270亿美元。虽然亚马逊同期的自由现金流仅比特斯拉高出约50%,但这主要是因为亚马逊的资本支出规模是特斯拉的九倍。</p>\n<p>更为直观的对比是:<strong>除亚马逊外,“七巨头”中的每一位成员仅在过去一年创造的自由现金流,就远超特斯拉过去五年的总和。</strong></p>\n<p>这种差距在未来几年可能会进一步扩大。特斯拉正试图重塑为自动驾驶和人工智能领域的领导者,其2026年的资本支出预算约为200亿美元。这笔支出将导致其自由现金流大幅转负。然而,这一预算规模仅为Alphabet预计支出的九分之一,且Alphabet在如此巨大的投入下,预计仍将在2026年产生340亿美元的自由现金流。<strong>这意味着,其他科技巨头完全可以用经营现金流覆盖其在AI领域的巨额赌注,而特斯拉则面临严峻的资金压力。</strong></p>\n<h2><strong>利润率仅为同侪零头</strong></h2>\n<p><strong>现金流的巨大差异折射出底层业务模式的不同。</strong>其他六家公司均可被视为各自领域的绝对主导者,拥有极高的护城河。特斯拉虽然是全球第二大电动汽车销售商,但在全球汽车总销量中的占比仅为1.8%。</p>\n<p>更为关键的是,特斯拉在电动汽车领域的高排名并未转化为高利润。据彭博观点分析,特斯拉的营业利润率目前不足5%。作为对比,其余六家巨头的营业利润率范围在11%(亚马逊,处于区间低端)到近60%(英伟达,处于区间高端)之间。这表明,<strong>试图以一家汽车制造公司为基础构建一个科技巨头,起点异常艰难。</strong></p>\n<p>在人工智能和芯片领域的竞争中,特斯拉不仅要面对“七巨头”中其他成员的巨额预算,还要应对Alphabet旗下Waymo的竞争,后者刚筹集了160亿美元用于扩大Robotaxi运营。此外,Open AI据报道正以1万亿美元的估值寻求IPO,竞争环境极其激烈。</p>\n<h2><strong>资金压力与融资依赖</strong></h2>\n<p>这种财务背景为马斯克商业帝国的重组提供了注脚。特斯拉已告知投资者今年将消耗现金,并可能需要筹集资金。据彭博汇编的数据,利用公开股票市场融资已深植于特斯拉的基因之中,其历史上已进行过11次此类融资,这一次数几乎相当于其他六家巨头融资次数总和。</p>\n<p>与此同时,马斯克旗下的xAI据报道每月烧钱约10亿美元。SpaceX虽然去年实现了80亿美元的EBITDA(息税折旧摊销前利润),但这并未扣除其巨大的资本支出。此外,SpaceX近期还承担了xAI的融资压力。尽管特斯拉账面上拥有超过400亿美元现金,但持续的资金消耗以及可能涉及三家公司的合并传闻,可能会让看似镇定的投资者感到不安。</p>\n<p>在此背景下,SpaceX若能成功进行IPO并筹集数百亿美元新资金,对整个马斯克商业版图至关重要。鉴于特斯拉作为“第七巨头”的地位已岌岌可危,马斯克或许迫切需要打造出第八个巨头来支撑其雄心。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>利润率仅为同侪零头,特斯拉的“美股七巨头”标签还能贴多久?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n利润率仅为同侪零头,特斯拉的“美股七巨头”标签还能贴多久?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-13 22:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>一直是“美股七巨头”中的异类,而其近期试图向人工智能转型的努力,反而进一步加剧了这种格格不入。尽管该标签主要基于股价表现,但随着基本面数据的恶化,特斯拉与Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等科技巨头之间的差距正在迅速拉大。</p>\n<p>据彭博专栏作家Liam Denning分析,特斯拉估值的飙升在很大程度上掩盖了其基本面的疲软。尽管该股享有极高的远期市盈率,但这在很大程度上是因为盈利预期的下降,而非增长的驱动。在过去三年中,特斯拉是“七巨头”中唯一一家报告盈利实际下降的公司,这种估值倍数的扩张更多反映了股价与日益恶化的基本面之间日益严重的脱节。</p>\n<p>这种分化在现金流表现上尤为显著。<strong>随着特斯拉计划在2026年将资本支出增加一倍以上至约200亿美元,以支持其自动驾驶和机器人业务,公司自由现金流预计将自2018年以来首次转为负值。</strong>相比之下,Alphabet等同行即便在巨额支出的情况下,预计仍将在同年产生<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元的自由现金流,凸显了两者在财务实力上的巨大鸿沟。</p>\n<p>面对资金消耗的加剧,特斯拉向投资者坦言可能需要“额外资金”。这也引发了市场对其首席执行官马斯克商业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00776\">帝国</a>重组的关注。随着特斯拉在这一精英集团中的地位日益受到质疑,马斯克可能更需要通过SpaceX等旗下其他业务的资本运作来寻求新的资金支持。</p>\n<h2><strong>估值虚高与基本面背离</strong></h2>\n<p>“美股七巨头”这一概念诞生于2023年,最初用于描述领涨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的七只股票。然而,这一标签在很大程度上已成为大型科技股的代名词,这使得特斯拉的入选显得颇为突兀。特斯拉的主营业务本质上是电动汽车及电池组的制造与销售,属于制造业范畴。相比之下,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>虽然销售消费电子产品,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>虽然拥有电商平台,但两者均被公认为盈利能力极强的信息技术巨头。</p>\n<p>尽管特斯拉在电动汽车设计和辅助驾驶系统方面拥有技术优势,但其更具科技色彩的业务——如Robotaxi(自动驾驶出租车)、人形机器人和芯片制造计划——目前更多处于研发阶段,而非成熟的商业业务。</p>\n<p><strong>特斯拉之所以能跻身该行列,主要归因于其高昂的估值,但这恰恰也是其与其他成员最大的不同之处。</strong>据彭博数据,特斯拉的高远期市盈率更多反映了投资者对其转型的梦想,而非现实业绩。过去三年其估值倍数的扩张,有三分之二可以用盈利预期的下降来解释。作为该集团中唯一盈利下滑的成员,特斯拉的基本面支撑显得愈发薄弱。</p>\n<h2><strong>自由现金流不在同一量级</strong></h2>\n<p>现金流是衡量企业实力的真实指标,而在这一点上,特斯拉与其他六家巨头完全不在一个量级。过去五年中,特斯拉的自由现金流总计约为270亿美元。虽然亚马逊同期的自由现金流仅比特斯拉高出约50%,但这主要是因为亚马逊的资本支出规模是特斯拉的九倍。</p>\n<p>更为直观的对比是:<strong>除亚马逊外,“七巨头”中的每一位成员仅在过去一年创造的自由现金流,就远超特斯拉过去五年的总和。</strong></p>\n<p>这种差距在未来几年可能会进一步扩大。特斯拉正试图重塑为自动驾驶和人工智能领域的领导者,其2026年的资本支出预算约为200亿美元。这笔支出将导致其自由现金流大幅转负。然而,这一预算规模仅为Alphabet预计支出的九分之一,且Alphabet在如此巨大的投入下,预计仍将在2026年产生340亿美元的自由现金流。<strong>这意味着,其他科技巨头完全可以用经营现金流覆盖其在AI领域的巨额赌注,而特斯拉则面临严峻的资金压力。</strong></p>\n<h2><strong>利润率仅为同侪零头</strong></h2>\n<p><strong>现金流的巨大差异折射出底层业务模式的不同。</strong>其他六家公司均可被视为各自领域的绝对主导者,拥有极高的护城河。特斯拉虽然是全球第二大电动汽车销售商,但在全球汽车总销量中的占比仅为1.8%。</p>\n<p>更为关键的是,特斯拉在电动汽车领域的高排名并未转化为高利润。据彭博观点分析,特斯拉的营业利润率目前不足5%。作为对比,其余六家巨头的营业利润率范围在11%(亚马逊,处于区间低端)到近60%(英伟达,处于区间高端)之间。这表明,<strong>试图以一家汽车制造公司为基础构建一个科技巨头,起点异常艰难。</strong></p>\n<p>在人工智能和芯片领域的竞争中,特斯拉不仅要面对“七巨头”中其他成员的巨额预算,还要应对Alphabet旗下Waymo的竞争,后者刚筹集了160亿美元用于扩大Robotaxi运营。此外,Open AI据报道正以1万亿美元的估值寻求IPO,竞争环境极其激烈。</p>\n<h2><strong>资金压力与融资依赖</strong></h2>\n<p>这种财务背景为马斯克商业帝国的重组提供了注脚。特斯拉已告知投资者今年将消耗现金,并可能需要筹集资金。据彭博汇编的数据,利用公开股票市场融资已深植于特斯拉的基因之中,其历史上已进行过11次此类融资,这一次数几乎相当于其他六家巨头融资次数总和。</p>\n<p>与此同时,马斯克旗下的xAI据报道每月烧钱约10亿美元。SpaceX虽然去年实现了80亿美元的EBITDA(息税折旧摊销前利润),但这并未扣除其巨大的资本支出。此外,SpaceX近期还承担了xAI的融资压力。尽管特斯拉账面上拥有超过400亿美元现金,但持续的资金消耗以及可能涉及三家公司的合并传闻,可能会让看似镇定的投资者感到不安。</p>\n<p>在此背景下,SpaceX若能成功进行IPO并筹集数百亿美元新资金,对整个马斯克商业版图至关重要。鉴于特斯拉作为“第七巨头”的地位已岌岌可危,马斯克或许迫切需要打造出第八个巨头来支撑其雄心。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US 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INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765692","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2611154500","content_text":"特斯拉一直是“美股七巨头”中的异类,而其近期试图向人工智能转型的努力,反而进一步加剧了这种格格不入。尽管该标签主要基于股价表现,但随着基本面数据的恶化,特斯拉与Alphabet、微软和英伟达等科技巨头之间的差距正在迅速拉大。\n据彭博专栏作家Liam Denning分析,特斯拉估值的飙升在很大程度上掩盖了其基本面的疲软。尽管该股享有极高的远期市盈率,但这在很大程度上是因为盈利预期的下降,而非增长的驱动。在过去三年中,特斯拉是“七巨头”中唯一一家报告盈利实际下降的公司,这种估值倍数的扩张更多反映了股价与日益恶化的基本面之间日益严重的脱节。\n这种分化在现金流表现上尤为显著。随着特斯拉计划在2026年将资本支出增加一倍以上至约200亿美元,以支持其自动驾驶和机器人业务,公司自由现金流预计将自2018年以来首次转为负值。相比之下,Alphabet等同行即便在巨额支出的情况下,预计仍将在同年产生数百亿美元的自由现金流,凸显了两者在财务实力上的巨大鸿沟。\n面对资金消耗的加剧,特斯拉向投资者坦言可能需要“额外资金”。这也引发了市场对其首席执行官马斯克商业帝国重组的关注。随着特斯拉在这一精英集团中的地位日益受到质疑,马斯克可能更需要通过SpaceX等旗下其他业务的资本运作来寻求新的资金支持。\n估值虚高与基本面背离\n“美股七巨头”这一概念诞生于2023年,最初用于描述领涨标普500指数的七只股票。然而,这一标签在很大程度上已成为大型科技股的代名词,这使得特斯拉的入选显得颇为突兀。特斯拉的主营业务本质上是电动汽车及电池组的制造与销售,属于制造业范畴。相比之下,苹果虽然销售消费电子产品,亚马逊虽然拥有电商平台,但两者均被公认为盈利能力极强的信息技术巨头。\n尽管特斯拉在电动汽车设计和辅助驾驶系统方面拥有技术优势,但其更具科技色彩的业务——如Robotaxi(自动驾驶出租车)、人形机器人和芯片制造计划——目前更多处于研发阶段,而非成熟的商业业务。\n特斯拉之所以能跻身该行列,主要归因于其高昂的估值,但这恰恰也是其与其他成员最大的不同之处。据彭博数据,特斯拉的高远期市盈率更多反映了投资者对其转型的梦想,而非现实业绩。过去三年其估值倍数的扩张,有三分之二可以用盈利预期的下降来解释。作为该集团中唯一盈利下滑的成员,特斯拉的基本面支撑显得愈发薄弱。\n自由现金流不在同一量级\n现金流是衡量企业实力的真实指标,而在这一点上,特斯拉与其他六家巨头完全不在一个量级。过去五年中,特斯拉的自由现金流总计约为270亿美元。虽然亚马逊同期的自由现金流仅比特斯拉高出约50%,但这主要是因为亚马逊的资本支出规模是特斯拉的九倍。\n更为直观的对比是:除亚马逊外,“七巨头”中的每一位成员仅在过去一年创造的自由现金流,就远超特斯拉过去五年的总和。\n这种差距在未来几年可能会进一步扩大。特斯拉正试图重塑为自动驾驶和人工智能领域的领导者,其2026年的资本支出预算约为200亿美元。这笔支出将导致其自由现金流大幅转负。然而,这一预算规模仅为Alphabet预计支出的九分之一,且Alphabet在如此巨大的投入下,预计仍将在2026年产生340亿美元的自由现金流。这意味着,其他科技巨头完全可以用经营现金流覆盖其在AI领域的巨额赌注,而特斯拉则面临严峻的资金压力。\n利润率仅为同侪零头\n现金流的巨大差异折射出底层业务模式的不同。其他六家公司均可被视为各自领域的绝对主导者,拥有极高的护城河。特斯拉虽然是全球第二大电动汽车销售商,但在全球汽车总销量中的占比仅为1.8%。\n更为关键的是,特斯拉在电动汽车领域的高排名并未转化为高利润。据彭博观点分析,特斯拉的营业利润率目前不足5%。作为对比,其余六家巨头的营业利润率范围在11%(亚马逊,处于区间低端)到近60%(英伟达,处于区间高端)之间。这表明,试图以一家汽车制造公司为基础构建一个科技巨头,起点异常艰难。\n在人工智能和芯片领域的竞争中,特斯拉不仅要面对“七巨头”中其他成员的巨额预算,还要应对Alphabet旗下Waymo的竞争,后者刚筹集了160亿美元用于扩大Robotaxi运营。此外,Open AI据报道正以1万亿美元的估值寻求IPO,竞争环境极其激烈。\n资金压力与融资依赖\n这种财务背景为马斯克商业帝国的重组提供了注脚。特斯拉已告知投资者今年将消耗现金,并可能需要筹集资金。据彭博汇编的数据,利用公开股票市场融资已深植于特斯拉的基因之中,其历史上已进行过11次此类融资,这一次数几乎相当于其他六家巨头融资次数总和。\n与此同时,马斯克旗下的xAI据报道每月烧钱约10亿美元。SpaceX虽然去年实现了80亿美元的EBITDA(息税折旧摊销前利润),但这并未扣除其巨大的资本支出。此外,SpaceX近期还承担了xAI的融资压力。尽管特斯拉账面上拥有超过400亿美元现金,但持续的资金消耗以及可能涉及三家公司的合并传闻,可能会让看似镇定的投资者感到不安。\n在此背景下,SpaceX若能成功进行IPO并筹集数百亿美元新资金,对整个马斯克商业版图至关重要。鉴于特斯拉作为“第七巨头”的地位已岌岌可危,马斯克或许迫切需要打造出第八个巨头来支撑其雄心。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":531834060031464,"gmtCreate":1770863222581,"gmtModify":1770863225199,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"刹车失灵搞不动,就换一个思路继续黑","listText":"刹车失灵搞不动,就换一个思路继续黑","text":"刹车失灵搞不动,就换一个思路继续黑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531834060031464","repostId":"2610799984","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2610799984","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770858060,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2610799984?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-12 09:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉国内频发断电故障引车主不满 官方回应态度遭质疑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610799984","media":"太平洋科技","summary":"近日,特斯拉在国内接连发生多起行驶中突然断电的故障事件,引发车主强烈不满。多位车主反映车辆在高速行驶时突然失去动力,存在严重安全隐患。据悉,部分车主在向特斯拉售后反映问题时,仅得到简单检修处理,未获得官方正式道歉或问题说明。车主们对特斯拉处理问题的态度表示心寒,认为企业缺乏对消费者安全的基本重视。","content":"<html><body><article><p>近日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在国内接连发生多起行驶中突然断电的故障事件,引发车主强烈不满。多位车主反映车辆在高速行驶时突然失去动力,存在严重安全隐患。</p><p>据悉,部分车主在向特斯拉售后反映问题时,仅得到简单检修处理,未获得官方正式道歉或问题说明。车主们对特斯拉处理问题的态度表示心寒,认为企业缺乏对消费者安全的基本重视。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉国内频发断电故障引车主不满 官方回应态度遭质疑</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉国内频发断电故障引车主不满 官方回应态度遭质疑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-12 09:01 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212092256a49a0db5&s=b><strong>太平洋科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日,特斯拉在国内接连发生多起行驶中突然断电的故障事件,引发车主强烈不满。多位车主反映车辆在高速行驶时突然失去动力,存在严重安全隐患。据悉,部分车主在向特斯拉售后反映问题时,仅得到简单检修处理,未获得官方正式道歉或问题说明。车主们对特斯拉处理问题的态度表示心寒,认为企业缺乏对消费者安全的基本重视。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212092256a49a0db5&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212092256a49a0db5&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2610799984","content_text":"近日,特斯拉在国内接连发生多起行驶中突然断电的故障事件,引发车主强烈不满。多位车主反映车辆在高速行驶时突然失去动力,存在严重安全隐患。据悉,部分车主在向特斯拉售后反映问题时,仅得到简单检修处理,未获得官方正式道歉或问题说明。车主们对特斯拉处理问题的态度表示心寒,认为企业缺乏对消费者安全的基本重视。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLO":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLA":1.95,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSDD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":530918328481416,"gmtCreate":1770637820927,"gmtModify":1770640464040,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"当年不是说必然倒闭么?怎么做成万亿市值的公司了?","listText":"当年不是说必然倒闭么?怎么做成万亿市值的公司了?","text":"当年不是说必然倒闭么?怎么做成万亿市值的公司了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/530918328481416","repostId":"2610615631","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2610615631","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770633910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2610615631?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-09 18:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉的机器人革命也救不了它了?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610615631","media":"美股研究社","summary":"期间,特斯拉一度暴跌约 40%。特斯拉许下的多项承诺,最终可能都不会像管理层宣传的那样实现。坦白说,感觉特斯拉才开始炒作机器人领域不到一年,但实际上,公司早在2021 年 8 月就开始提这个概念了。在当年的特斯拉 AI 日,马斯克公布了 “特斯拉机器人” 的构想。时至今日,特斯拉技术仍停留在L2 级辅助驾驶,远落后于 Waymo 的 L4 级自动驾驶。乍一看,这对特斯拉似乎是巨大机遇。而特斯拉 2025 年营收已达 948.3 亿美元。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260209185059078v206pghoh407lhe\"/><p>作者Daniel Jones,内容为转载编译,仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角,并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。</p><p>分析师对这家公司的负面看法,与管理层或整体野心无关,坦白说,分析师对它很多运营层面的做法其实是认可的。分析师坚定看好电动汽车市场,也尤其喜爱它的<strong>能源生产与储能业务</strong>。分析师对特斯拉的核心顾虑,真正集中在两点:</p><p>较小的问题在于,埃隆・马斯克的一系列决策给公司带来了诸多负面影响与包袱;<strong>更大的问题,则是估值</strong>。</p><p>长期以来分析师一直认为,这家公司股价被<strong>严重高估</strong>。事实上,早在 2024年 12月分析师就断言,特斯拉股东在2025年将会过得非常糟糕。期间,特斯拉一度暴跌约 40%。说实话,分析师当时认为它还会继续跌。但马斯克的 “炒作” 最终还是成功煽动了投资者情绪,把价格重新推高。需要明确的是,特斯拉<strong>表现依旧大幅跑输市场</strong>:</p><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><p>· 自 2024 年 12 月左右至今,特斯拉股价基本<strong>零涨幅</strong>,而标普 500 同期上涨 16.6%;</p><p>· 自分析师今年 1 月左右以来,特斯拉下跌 6%,远差于标普 500 仅 0.9% 的跌幅。</p><p>这些都还远不及分析师预期未来终将发生的调整。但要出现那种调整,公司描绘的各种美好 “故事” 必须先破灭。</p><p>特斯拉许下的多项承诺,最终可能都不会像管理层宣传的那样实现。它的<strong>无人驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)野心基本是空谈</strong>,因为相比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>旗下的 Waymo 等行业头部玩家,特斯拉落后太多。而管理层最近新一轮炒作,转向了<strong>机器人业务</strong>。尽管分析师不否认这块存在一定增长机会,但分析师看不到任何情景,能让机器人业务的表现足以支撑当前估值,更别说推动特斯拉继续上涨。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcPgia7DNCvbkZ2UW7icKia7iaEBYibLoBH9m2tvI6bkqbEh7NtGPic58BHcsA/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>特斯拉的新故事难成气候</strong></p><p>时间过得真快。坦白说,感觉特斯拉才开始炒作机器人领域不到一年,但实际上,公司早在<strong>2021 年 8 月</strong>就开始提这个概念了。在当年的特斯拉 AI 日,马斯克公布了 “特斯拉机器人(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> Bot)” 的构想。这项技术在概念上很吸引人,因为它整合了此前从未大规模融合的多项技术:多摄像头视频神经网络、神经网络规划能力、自动标注技术等等。</p><p>一年多后,也就是 2022 年 9 月,首批原型机亮相。这本该是里程碑式的一步,却迅速引发争议。即便两年后,公司展示的机器人实际上仍需人类远程操控辅助。但随着时间推移,公司仍在推进研发。2023 年 12 月,<strong>Optimus(擎天柱)二代</strong>发布,行走更快、手部更灵活,甚至演示了抓取鸡蛋的动作。但即便如此也充满争议,不少人认为依旧使用了远程操控或脚本预设。</p><p>遗憾的是,尽管公司开始在工厂内让机器人执行分拣物品等简单任务,但<strong>没有一台机器人实现真正自主运行</strong>。事实上,在今年 1 月 2025 财年财报电话会议上,马斯克亲口承认,Optimus 机器人在公司任何工厂都<strong>没有从事 “有实际价值” 的工作</strong>。这与前几年的宣传完全相悖。</p><p>比如一年前,马斯克还宣称 2025 年公司将造出约 1 万台机器人,并坚信这些机器人能承担实用工作。但现实是,公司不得不收回此前说法:</p><p>“我们在 Optimus 项目上仍处于非常早期的阶段,仍在研发中。我们让 Optimus 在工厂做过一些基础任务,但随着新版本迭代,旧版本就被弃用了。它并未在工厂大规模实际使用,更多只是让机器人学习。大概率要到今年年底,才可能实现 Optimus 的大规模量产。”</p><p>特斯拉向来<strong>擅长画大饼、兑现乏力</strong>。2016 年,公司明确宣布向自动驾驶方向迈进;2019 年 4 月,马斯克甚至宣称 2020 年将有 100 万辆无人驾驶出租车上路。时至今日,特斯拉技术仍停留在<strong>L2 级辅助驾驶</strong>,远落后于 Waymo 的 L4 级自动驾驶。当然,两家公司路线不同:特斯拉坚持纯视觉方案,而 Waymo 等聚焦地理围栏及配套技术。但即便在这方面,特斯拉也在倒退:其在得州开展的试点项目使用了地理围栏,且不同程度依赖人工干预。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260209185136131v2066v0dhrcayrc\"/><p><strong>转型机器人,更像是 “病急乱投医”</strong></p><p>可想而知,分析师对 Optimus 项目持高度怀疑态度。尽管如此,公司仍在该领域大举行动。就在不久前,管理层宣布,将<strong>停止加州弗里蒙特工厂的 Model S 与 Model X 生产</strong>,把产能转为制造 Optimus 机器人。</p><p>而此时,公司核心业务本就已承压:汽车产量与交付量连续两年下滑,欧洲销量暴跌,美国市场面临通用、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>等车企日益激烈的竞争。叠加马斯克极具争议的政治言论,同时得罪了美国左右两派选民,此时转向机器人业务,更像是<strong>核心业务大幅恶化前的最后挣扎</strong>。</p><p>这并不是说人形机器人没有巨大市场潜力。比如去年5月,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预测,到2050年全球人形机器人保有量或达10亿台,对应5万亿美元市场规模,其中约90%用于工业及商业场景,主要集中在中国。美国预计约 7770 万台,家庭保有量仅约 8000 万台。</p><p>乍一看,这对特斯拉似乎是巨大机遇。但即便忽略公司过往 “承诺多、兑现少” 的记录,分析师也不认为这是什么重大胜利。摩根士丹利预计,当前单台人形机器人成本约 20 万美元;随着技术进步,成本将逐步下降,2028 年降至 15 万美元,2050 年降至 5 万美元,部分国家甚至可低至 1.5 万美元。</p><p>这样的价格确实能带来可观收入,但对市值高达<strong>1.62 万亿美元</strong>的特斯拉而言,远远不够。马斯克曾将近万亿美元薪酬方案的一部分,与未来十年交付 100 万台机器人挂钩。即便按单台 20 万美元计算,10 年总收入也仅 2000 亿美元,平摊下来每年仅 200 亿美元。而特斯拉 2025 年营收已达 948.3 亿美元。即便假设机器人业务拥有 30% 利润率,在分析师看来极度乐观的情景下,十年累计利润也仅 600 亿美元。</p><p>对个人而言这是巨款,但<strong>完全无法支撑 1.62 万亿的市值</strong>,更何况电动汽车市场竞争只会愈发激烈,新玩家不断涌入,且美国政治环境对电动车技术也逐渐转向不友好。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260209185136635v206yq6tuk6751q\"/><p><strong>结论</strong></p><p>投资者寄予厚望的其他业务,也很难带来显著回报。分析师已经分析过,其无人驾驶出租车注定落后于行业真正领导者。此外,分析师也不认为完全自动驾驶(FSD)订阅业务有多重要。目前该服务月费 99 美元,2025 年底订阅用户增至 110 万,高于一年前的 80 万。公司目标是十年内增至 1000 万,对应年收入约 118.8 亿美元,且大部分为高<span>毛利</span>。但即便如此,要支撑如此高的估值,仍远远不够。</p><p>分析师真的不想总做泼冷水的人,但分析师的专业判断是:<strong>特斯拉目前是风险最高的投资标的之一</strong>。除了帕兰提尔(PLTR)至少还拥有明确的大额营收与现金流增长路径外,在所有市值超 1000 亿美元的公司中,特斯拉是<strong>定价最非理性的一只</strong>。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260209185137051v206kwjvctbmmc3\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉的机器人革命也救不了它了?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉的机器人革命也救不了它了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-09 18:45 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209185202a48ee2f0&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者Daniel Jones,内容为转载编译,仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角,并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。分析师对这家公司的负面看法,与管理层或整体野心无关,坦白说,分析师对它很多运营层面的做法其实是认可的。分析师坚定看好电动汽车市场,也尤其喜爱它的能源生产与储能业务。分析师对特斯拉的核心顾虑,真正集中在两点:较小的问题在于,埃隆・马斯克的一系列决策给公司带来了诸多负面影响与包袱;更大的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209185202a48ee2f0&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4604":"机器人概念","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH 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INC","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209185202a48ee2f0&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2610615631","content_text":"作者Daniel Jones,内容为转载编译,仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角,并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。分析师对这家公司的负面看法,与管理层或整体野心无关,坦白说,分析师对它很多运营层面的做法其实是认可的。分析师坚定看好电动汽车市场,也尤其喜爱它的能源生产与储能业务。分析师对特斯拉的核心顾虑,真正集中在两点:较小的问题在于,埃隆・马斯克的一系列决策给公司带来了诸多负面影响与包袱;更大的问题,则是估值。长期以来分析师一直认为,这家公司股价被严重高估。事实上,早在 2024年 12月分析师就断言,特斯拉股东在2025年将会过得非常糟糕。期间,特斯拉一度暴跌约 40%。说实话,分析师当时认为它还会继续跌。但马斯克的 “炒作” 最终还是成功煽动了投资者情绪,把价格重新推高。需要明确的是,特斯拉表现依旧大幅跑输市场:【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】· 自 2024 年 12 月左右至今,特斯拉股价基本零涨幅,而标普 500 同期上涨 16.6%;· 自分析师今年 1 月左右以来,特斯拉下跌 6%,远差于标普 500 仅 0.9% 的跌幅。这些都还远不及分析师预期未来终将发生的调整。但要出现那种调整,公司描绘的各种美好 “故事” 必须先破灭。特斯拉许下的多项承诺,最终可能都不会像管理层宣传的那样实现。它的无人驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)野心基本是空谈,因为相比谷歌旗下的 Waymo 等行业头部玩家,特斯拉落后太多。而管理层最近新一轮炒作,转向了机器人业务。尽管分析师不否认这块存在一定增长机会,但分析师看不到任何情景,能让机器人业务的表现足以支撑当前估值,更别说推动特斯拉继续上涨。特斯拉的新故事难成气候时间过得真快。坦白说,感觉特斯拉才开始炒作机器人领域不到一年,但实际上,公司早在2021 年 8 月就开始提这个概念了。在当年的特斯拉 AI 日,马斯克公布了 “特斯拉机器人(Tesla Bot)” 的构想。这项技术在概念上很吸引人,因为它整合了此前从未大规模融合的多项技术:多摄像头视频神经网络、神经网络规划能力、自动标注技术等等。一年多后,也就是 2022 年 9 月,首批原型机亮相。这本该是里程碑式的一步,却迅速引发争议。即便两年后,公司展示的机器人实际上仍需人类远程操控辅助。但随着时间推移,公司仍在推进研发。2023 年 12 月,Optimus(擎天柱)二代发布,行走更快、手部更灵活,甚至演示了抓取鸡蛋的动作。但即便如此也充满争议,不少人认为依旧使用了远程操控或脚本预设。遗憾的是,尽管公司开始在工厂内让机器人执行分拣物品等简单任务,但没有一台机器人实现真正自主运行。事实上,在今年 1 月 2025 财年财报电话会议上,马斯克亲口承认,Optimus 机器人在公司任何工厂都没有从事 “有实际价值” 的工作。这与前几年的宣传完全相悖。比如一年前,马斯克还宣称 2025 年公司将造出约 1 万台机器人,并坚信这些机器人能承担实用工作。但现实是,公司不得不收回此前说法:“我们在 Optimus 项目上仍处于非常早期的阶段,仍在研发中。我们让 Optimus 在工厂做过一些基础任务,但随着新版本迭代,旧版本就被弃用了。它并未在工厂大规模实际使用,更多只是让机器人学习。大概率要到今年年底,才可能实现 Optimus 的大规模量产。”特斯拉向来擅长画大饼、兑现乏力。2016 年,公司明确宣布向自动驾驶方向迈进;2019 年 4 月,马斯克甚至宣称 2020 年将有 100 万辆无人驾驶出租车上路。时至今日,特斯拉技术仍停留在L2 级辅助驾驶,远落后于 Waymo 的 L4 级自动驾驶。当然,两家公司路线不同:特斯拉坚持纯视觉方案,而 Waymo 等聚焦地理围栏及配套技术。但即便在这方面,特斯拉也在倒退:其在得州开展的试点项目使用了地理围栏,且不同程度依赖人工干预。转型机器人,更像是 “病急乱投医”可想而知,分析师对 Optimus 项目持高度怀疑态度。尽管如此,公司仍在该领域大举行动。就在不久前,管理层宣布,将停止加州弗里蒙特工厂的 Model S 与 Model X 生产,把产能转为制造 Optimus 机器人。而此时,公司核心业务本就已承压:汽车产量与交付量连续两年下滑,欧洲销量暴跌,美国市场面临通用、福特等车企日益激烈的竞争。叠加马斯克极具争议的政治言论,同时得罪了美国左右两派选民,此时转向机器人业务,更像是核心业务大幅恶化前的最后挣扎。这并不是说人形机器人没有巨大市场潜力。比如去年5月,摩根士丹利预测,到2050年全球人形机器人保有量或达10亿台,对应5万亿美元市场规模,其中约90%用于工业及商业场景,主要集中在中国。美国预计约 7770 万台,家庭保有量仅约 8000 万台。乍一看,这对特斯拉似乎是巨大机遇。但即便忽略公司过往 “承诺多、兑现少” 的记录,分析师也不认为这是什么重大胜利。摩根士丹利预计,当前单台人形机器人成本约 20 万美元;随着技术进步,成本将逐步下降,2028 年降至 15 万美元,2050 年降至 5 万美元,部分国家甚至可低至 1.5 万美元。这样的价格确实能带来可观收入,但对市值高达1.62 万亿美元的特斯拉而言,远远不够。马斯克曾将近万亿美元薪酬方案的一部分,与未来十年交付 100 万台机器人挂钩。即便按单台 20 万美元计算,10 年总收入也仅 2000 亿美元,平摊下来每年仅 200 亿美元。而特斯拉 2025 年营收已达 948.3 亿美元。即便假设机器人业务拥有 30% 利润率,在分析师看来极度乐观的情景下,十年累计利润也仅 600 亿美元。对个人而言这是巨款,但完全无法支撑 1.62 万亿的市值,更何况电动汽车市场竞争只会愈发激烈,新玩家不断涌入,且美国政治环境对电动车技术也逐渐转向不友好。结论投资者寄予厚望的其他业务,也很难带来显著回报。分析师已经分析过,其无人驾驶出租车注定落后于行业真正领导者。此外,分析师也不认为完全自动驾驶(FSD)订阅业务有多重要。目前该服务月费 99 美元,2025 年底订阅用户增至 110 万,高于一年前的 80 万。公司目标是十年内增至 1000 万,对应年收入约 118.8 亿美元,且大部分为高毛利。但即便如此,要支撑如此高的估值,仍远远不够。分析师真的不想总做泼冷水的人,但分析师的专业判断是:特斯拉目前是风险最高的投资标的之一。除了帕兰提尔(PLTR)至少还拥有明确的大额营收与现金流增长路径外,在所有市值超 1000 亿美元的公司中,特斯拉是定价最非理性的一只。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLG":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSLS":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLP":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}