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黑眼圈太重了邓文
先赚88888888万亿美金再说!
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
11:33
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
伊朗:我没有核武器、你特朗普都不能拿我怎么样、还乖乖的送3000亿美元赔偿给我,后面我就是发展核武器你特朗普又能把我怎么样、到时候乖乖的送3万亿美元过来;
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-18 17:15
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
贝森特和米勒不想走70年代的老路,必杀太空和消费服务,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-18 16:10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
关于美联储主席:沃尔克、格林斯潘、伯克南、鲍威尔,都是通过先行加息、加到出了问题、然后自己出来收拾残局才座稳美联储主席宝座的,并大刀阔斧的实行自己的施政理念,然后搞成了,才成就了自己美联储厉害主席的美名, 前面成功的道路在哪里,沃什想加息加出问题、还是降息降出问题来,加息pass特朗普第一个就得找他麻烦,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-18 15:48
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
关于沃什首秀: 1) 沃什自己对于通胀、利率的观点什么都没有,推出五个工作组来跟美联储内部打擂台,毕竟上次沃什关于生产力压低通胀的说法、被鲍威尔的铁杆小弟怼回去了,这次把自己隐藏起来再说,黑箱操作,会前市场都有预期到, 2)看参议院投票,分支是最大的,也就是沃什的权利来源于特朗普让美国再次伟大的阵营,不是国会,这就意味着降息才是大小王,不管后面中期选举怎么走、经济怎么走、AI浪潮怎么走,只要五个工作组赢了,降息才是美联储的主轴,而加息是市场预期的, 3)时代的大势而在呼吁降息:目前黄金-新科技-周期的链条、替换大QE-大科技-消费服务的链条,是典型的逆全球化、替代全球化,现在70年代的味道越来越浓了:黄金财政赤字-制造业服务消费-太空竞赛-美联储降息,70年代的粗链条里面,米勒贝森特剥离出了:黄金- AI浪潮-周期出来,现在服务消费业80%的占比、制造业10的占比,正是推动制作业占比加大、消费服务业减少的时候,如果还是70年代的链条、玩不转、要推倒重来;这波剥离精简出来,是走的巧路, 沃什首秀都在预期内、不出格不出彩,叠加娶富家女的男的什么德行,一切都明摆着,
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
所以,我们要站在趋势的一边:降息;而市场预期的加息都是错误定价,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-18 12:46
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
强盗、小偷、妓女、骗子;当年考强盗、小偷逻辑当成了世界帝国,现在在逆全球化中,靠骗子来大行其道了,看美国人民选出的总统:特朗普,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-17 22:41
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
朗子:谢谢美国送来的3000亿美元投资计划,别说3000亿、就是3000万亿美元、我们都照单全收,到时等果园的果子成熟的时候、学别人、把门一关就行,到时如果我有核弹你们能奈我何、即使没核弹、这次你们都不能能奈我何,到时又能奈我何,美国欧洲海湾的people们,这是当年欧洲的马歇尔计划啊,快来投资我们伊朗吧,
$标普500(.SPX)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-17 12:42
沃什娶的是富家女,看你们身边娶了当地有点钱家里的女人的男的是什么德行;唯一的是米勒的弟子,
FOMC前瞻:沃什的第一把火烧向哪儿?
6月FOMC会议的沃什首秀所承载的政治意义远胜过经济影响,沃什既要安抚特朗普的政治目的与降息诉求,又要有逻辑地展现出“小格林斯潘”姿态,还要直面当前市场的加息预期和金融条件宽松的局面。沃什能否显著地提及信用宽松,关乎市场对于高利率环境对科技企业CAPEX可持续性的担忧。因此,沃什如何自证其对市场友好、为政策保留双向空间,将成为关键。
FOMC前瞻:沃什的第一把火烧向哪儿?
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-16
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
榜一大哥马斯克:感谢主播特朗普送的美伊协议预期的大礼,to the 火星,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-12
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
我倒是希望佬马能成,那意味着AI产业是元宇宙1.0一样;但老马已经引领了新能源电动车一次,这第二次引领时代的概率有多大?前面的是乔布斯,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-12
卖出看跌期权、买入股票(不是卖出),
几小时内反转!特朗普称取消打击伊朗计划,协议基本定稿、伊朗各方批准,或周末在欧洲签署
特朗普发帖称,美伊磋商已获伊朗最高领导层批准,最终条款获美以等相关方批准,美对伊海上封锁将持续到协议最终敲定为止。伊媒后称,伊朗还未批准任何协议文本。特朗普发帖后,原油转跌,一度跌近4%。特朗普暗示重大协议几天内敲定,称协议一签就开放霍尔木兹海峡,伊朗最高领袖已同意协议,三大美股指刷新日高,至少涨2%。伊朗强硬回应特朗普周四稍早的猛烈打击威胁和夺岛言论:若美再袭,将遭更严厉回击,敌人任何误判都将招致超乎想象的反击。
几小时内反转!特朗普称取消打击伊朗计划,协议基本定稿、伊朗各方批准,或周末在欧洲签署
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关于美联储主席:沃尔克、格林斯潘、伯克南、鲍威尔,都是通过先行加息、加到出了问题、然后自己出来收拾残局才座稳美联储主席宝座的,并大刀阔斧的实行自己的施政理念,然后搞成了,才成就了自己美联储厉害主席的美名, 前面成功的道路在哪里,沃什想加息加出问题、还是降息降出问题来,加息pass特朗普第一个就得找他麻烦,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 关于美联储主席:沃尔克、格林斯潘、伯克南、鲍威尔,都是通过先行加息、加到出了问题、然后自己出来收拾残局才座稳美联储主席宝座的,并大刀阔斧的实行自己的施政理念,然后搞成了,才成就了自己美联储厉害主席的美名, 前面成功的道路在哪里,沃什想加息加出问题、还是降息降出问题来,加息pass特朗普第一个就得找他麻烦,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576498513417776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576493421089112,"gmtCreate":1781768936950,"gmtModify":1781770815906,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 关于沃什首秀: 1) 沃什自己对于通胀、利率的观点什么都没有,推出五个工作组来跟美联储内部打擂台,毕竟上次沃什关于生产力压低通胀的说法、被鲍威尔的铁杆小弟怼回去了,这次把自己隐藏起来再说,黑箱操作,会前市场都有预期到, 2)看参议院投票,分支是最大的,也就是沃什的权利来源于特朗普让美国再次伟大的阵营,不是国会,这就意味着降息才是大小王,不管后面中期选举怎么走、经济怎么走、AI浪潮怎么走,只要五个工作组赢了,降息才是美联储的主轴,而加息是市场预期的, 3)时代的大势而在呼吁降息:目前黄金-新科技-周期的链条、替换大QE-大科技-消费服务的链条,是典型的逆全球化、替代全球化,现在70年代的味道越来越浓了:黄金财政赤字-制造业服务消费-太空竞赛-美联储降息,70年代的粗链条里面,米勒贝森特剥离出了:黄金- AI浪潮-周期出来,现在服务消费业80%的占比、制造业10的占比,正是推动制作业占比加大、消费服务业减少的时候,如果还是70年代的链条、玩不转、要推倒重来;这波剥离精简出来,是走的巧路, 沃什首秀都在预期内、不出格不出彩,叠加娶富家女的男的什么德行,一切都明摆着,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a> 所以,我们要站在趋势的一边:降息;而市场预期的加息都是错误定价,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 关于沃什首秀: 1) 沃什自己对于通胀、利率的观点什么都没有,推出五个工作组来跟美联储内部打擂台,毕竟上次沃什关于生产力压低通胀的说法、被鲍威尔的铁杆小弟怼回去了,这次把自己隐藏起来再说,黑箱操作,会前市场都有预期到, 2)看参议院投票,分支是最大的,也就是沃什的权利来源于特朗普让美国再次伟大的阵营,不是国会,这就意味着降息才是大小王,不管后面中期选举怎么走、经济怎么走、AI浪潮怎么走,只要五个工作组赢了,降息才是美联储的主轴,而加息是市场预期的, 3)时代的大势而在呼吁降息:目前黄金-新科技-周期的链条、替换大QE-大科技-消费服务的链条,是典型的逆全球化、替代全球化,现在70年代的味道越来越浓了:黄金财政赤字-制造业服务消费-太空竞赛-美联储降息,70年代的粗链条里面,米勒贝森特剥离出了:黄金- AI浪潮-周期出来,现在服务消费业80%的占比、制造业10的占比,正是推动制作业占比加大、消费服务业减少的时候,如果还是70年代的链条、玩不转、要推倒重来;这波剥离精简出来,是走的巧路, 沃什首秀都在预期内、不出格不出彩,叠加娶富家女的男的什么德行,一切都明摆着,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a> 所以,我们要站在趋势的一边:降息;而市场预期的加息都是错误定价,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 关于沃什首秀: 1) 沃什自己对于通胀、利率的观点什么都没有,推出五个工作组来跟美联储内部打擂台,毕竟上次沃什关于生产力压低通胀的说法、被鲍威尔的铁杆小弟怼回去了,这次把自己隐藏起来再说,黑箱操作,会前市场都有预期到, 2)看参议院投票,分支是最大的,也就是沃什的权利来源于特朗普让美国再次伟大的阵营,不是国会,这就意味着降息才是大小王,不管后面中期选举怎么走、经济怎么走、AI浪潮怎么走,只要五个工作组赢了,降息才是美联储的主轴,而加息是市场预期的, 3)时代的大势而在呼吁降息:目前黄金-新科技-周期的链条、替换大QE-大科技-消费服务的链条,是典型的逆全球化、替代全球化,现在70年代的味道越来越浓了:黄金财政赤字-制造业服务消费-太空竞赛-美联储降息,70年代的粗链条里面,米勒贝森特剥离出了:黄金- AI浪潮-周期出来,现在服务消费业80%的占比、制造业10的占比,正是推动制作业占比加大、消费服务业减少的时候,如果还是70年代的链条、玩不转、要推倒重来;这波剥离精简出来,是走的巧路, 沃什首秀都在预期内、不出格不出彩,叠加娶富家女的男的什么德行,一切都明摆着,$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 所以,我们要站在趋势的一边:降息;而市场预期的加息都是错误定价,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576493421089112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576448149870736,"gmtCreate":1781757962622,"gmtModify":1781759678737,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 强盗、小偷、妓女、骗子;当年考强盗、小偷逻辑当成了世界帝国,现在在逆全球化中,靠骗子来大行其道了,看美国人民选出的总统:特朗普,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 强盗、小偷、妓女、骗子;当年考强盗、小偷逻辑当成了世界帝国,现在在逆全球化中,靠骗子来大行其道了,看美国人民选出的总统:特朗普,","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 强盗、小偷、妓女、骗子;当年考强盗、小偷逻辑当成了世界帝国,现在在逆全球化中,靠骗子来大行其道了,看美国人民选出的总统:特朗普,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576448149870736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569472643212871","authorId":"3569472643212871","name":"查理Mango","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf5da54990ef22ebb6c837a00906ad75","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3569472643212871","idStr":"3569472643212871"},"content":"那你留在正义的A股啊","text":"那你留在正义的A股啊","html":"那你留在正义的A股啊"},{"author":{"id":"3478857979439113","authorId":"3478857979439113","name":"Jamesch0737","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3478857979439113","idStr":"3478857979439113"},"content":"最大的庞氏骗局[开心]","text":"最大的庞氏骗局[开心]","html":"最大的庞氏骗局[开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576240781112080,"gmtCreate":1781707262459,"gmtModify":1781708935977,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 朗子:谢谢美国送来的3000亿美元投资计划,别说3000亿、就是3000万亿美元、我们都照单全收,到时等果园的果子成熟的时候、学别人、把门一关就行,到时如果我有核弹你们能奈我何、即使没核弹、这次你们都不能能奈我何,到时又能奈我何,美国欧洲海湾的people们,这是当年欧洲的马歇尔计划啊,快来投资我们伊朗吧,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 朗子:谢谢美国送来的3000亿美元投资计划,别说3000亿、就是3000万亿美元、我们都照单全收,到时等果园的果子成熟的时候、学别人、把门一关就行,到时如果我有核弹你们能奈我何、即使没核弹、这次你们都不能能奈我何,到时又能奈我何,美国欧洲海湾的people们,这是当年欧洲的马歇尔计划啊,快来投资我们伊朗吧,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a> ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 朗子:谢谢美国送来的3000亿美元投资计划,别说3000亿、就是3000万亿美元、我们都照单全收,到时等果园的果子成熟的时候、学别人、把门一关就行,到时如果我有核弹你们能奈我何、即使没核弹、这次你们都不能能奈我何,到时又能奈我何,美国欧洲海湾的people们,这是当年欧洲的马歇尔计划啊,快来投资我们伊朗吧,$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576240781112080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4192070439977982","authorId":"4192070439977982","name":"老虎同学好","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4192070439977982","idStr":"4192070439977982"},"content":"这3000亿相当于伊朗的卖身契,估计伊朗很多设施将被美国控股,控制,老特是生意人,大赚","text":"这3000亿相当于伊朗的卖身契,估计伊朗很多设施将被美国控股,控制,老特是生意人,大赚","html":"这3000亿相当于伊朗的卖身契,估计伊朗很多设施将被美国控股,控制,老特是生意人,大赚"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576132497613016,"gmtCreate":1781671332048,"gmtModify":1781673635865,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"沃什娶的是富家女,看你们身边娶了当地有点钱家里的女人的男的是什么德行;唯一的是米勒的弟子,","listText":"沃什娶的是富家女,看你们身边娶了当地有点钱家里的女人的男的是什么德行;唯一的是米勒的弟子,","text":"沃什娶的是富家女,看你们身边娶了当地有点钱家里的女人的男的是什么德行;唯一的是米勒的弟子,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576132497613016","repostId":"2644794590","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2644794590","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1781666435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2644794590?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-17 11:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"FOMC前瞻:沃什的第一把火烧向哪儿?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2644794590","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"6月FOMC会议的沃什首秀所承载的政治意义远胜过经济影响,沃什既要安抚特朗普的政治目的与降息诉求,又要有逻辑地展现出“小格林斯潘”姿态,还要直面当前市场的加息预期和金融条件宽松的局面。沃什能否显著地提及信用宽松,关乎市场对于高利率环境对科技企业CAPEX可持续性的担忧。因此,沃什如何自证其对市场友好、为政策保留双向空间,将成为关键。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>沃什6月FOMC首秀暗藏玄机:他既要用点阵图收紧、删除宽松声明安抚鹰派,又不能触动信用市场神经——英伟达250亿美元新债利差仅65bp,科技融资条件依然宽松。真正的风险不在联邦基金利率,而在沃什一旦祭出"金融条件偏松"的表述,信用市场与无风险利率共振收紧,AI资本开支的估值逻辑才会真正动摇。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关注沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融条件偏松(科技企业融资需求)、是否给出更明确的缩表路径——对于理解后续的货币政策更加重要。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月FOMC会议的沃什首秀所承载的政治意义远胜过经济影响,沃什既要安抚特朗普的政治目的与降息诉求,又要有逻辑地展现出“小格林斯潘”姿态,还要直面当前市场的加息预期和金融条件宽松的局面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方面,沃什在传统货币政策元素中的表态已经被市场铺垫很久,比如:删除进一步宽松的声明(强调政策双向空间),收紧点阵图利率预期(至年内“不降息”)以及在中东冲击的背景下,调低经济增速预期(2.4%→2%左右)并上调年内核心PCE预期(2.7%→3%左右)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我们认为年内降息的可能性依然存在,至少加息预期回收正在逐步实现,且可期待更多。</strong>从最新的经济数据(非农、CPI)来看,推动联储短期内降息的因素是不充分的。哪怕沃什再次端出AI生产力理论,以及淡化单一核心PCE、转向截尾、均值PCE等更温和通胀的观察指标,也需要非农走弱、失业率提升、消费放缓、景气度下行等经济数据的支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">迄今为止依然韧性的美国经济数据实际上给了联储更多观察的时间窗口,随着和平协定即将签署,美伊战争所带来的第一轮通胀已经见顶;更多的降息预期释放仍依赖于潜在的需求冲击是否兑现;这些是决定联储利率路径的经济因素。在此之前,押注任何极端的货币政策变化都过于激进。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3913a8f68bd0855457f844f00b9c0d21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面,沃什需要时间建立“专属人设”,包括被反复提及的“不提交点阵图预测”,他已多次表达了点阵图预测“没有太多意义”。但联储的改革也并非一蹴而就,在产业趋势逐渐主导经济叙事的背景下,货币政策必然要更加顺应时代特征。沃什如何看待当前复杂的宏观环境,包括K型分化的延续和AI宏观系统重要性的抬升,可能会更有指向性意义。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尤其是沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与沃什的AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融条件偏松(科技企业融资需求)、是否给出更明确的缩表路径——对于理解后续的货币政策更加重要。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c88d68a22a79112789e61d047c5f237\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这三者实质上都与AI紧密相关,尤其是金融条件和缩表远景:国债利率上行,但信用利差仍在收窄,科技企业融资条件依然宽松;同时,AI投资更倾向于通过非银机构(NBFI)融资的特殊性,也成为对缩表(银行准备金)的结构性约束。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d23a3fa6a0d8080ad1511787fba02832\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管联邦基金利率市场仍在押注联储加息,但是信用市场却在替联储降息,背后的支撑是银行-非银共同创造信用条件,且非银负责把流动性市场化和杠杆化。沃什能否显著地提及信用宽松,关乎市场对于高利率环境对科技企业CAPEX可持续性的担忧。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a0dfb63fd1b0e6c80d6bb22455ecdf6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尤其是沃什自诩“小格林斯潘”的情况下,市场当下联想的并不是1997年3月那次“伟大”的会议(选择加息25bp,但因判断生产力提升,随后长时间保持利率不变);而是1999年6月那次“完美风暴”的开启(开启加息175bp,流动性收紧,信用收缩)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此,沃什如何自证其对市场友好、为政策保留双向空间,将成为关键。如果他只谈通胀、就业和数据依赖,鹰派信号容易被市场吸收。如果他主动使用“financial conditions remain accommodative”或类似表述,就等于把信用市场拉回政策反应函数。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是,迄今为止的债券市场对于头部科技企业仍十分友好,规模加权利差还在边际收窄,仅在85bp左右,而本周英伟达新发的250亿美元债券利差更是低至65bp附近。除此之外,沃什的反馈对于非美市场亦非常重要:今年以来头部科技企业开始频繁使用非美元市场,这会成为权益市场外新的AI主题全球映射渠道。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40455485add77f56675d83ae3341aa6f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于市场反馈的预期,信用市场需要得到特别重视。例如,科技债利差以及更脆弱的高收益债利差在会后是否产生明显变化,新发科技债是否面临concession,数据中心融资相关的私募信贷是否根据沃什的姿态出现风险重定价,以及低评级的基础设施相关发行人是否开始承压。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8087e3a3707eb03e5da31f94b84b85e3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于金融市场而言,当下的高利率本身并不是完整紧缩;只有当无风险利率上行与信用利差走阔形成共振,融资约束才会变成估值压力。除此之外,在实体经济出现明显变化(走弱或再加速)前,联储实际上可以稳坐钓鱼台,谋定而后动,这也更加符合沃什期待塑造的低调形象,当前的“碌碌无为”远胜过“大展拳脚”。</p></body></html>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC前瞻:沃什的第一把火烧向哪儿?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-17 11:20 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzMzNzczNQ==&mid=2247520128&idx=1&sn=ff7ff90d4755bed102630ae5c11b0ef1&chksm=e856d00c480a2748ac861d7d43ad83795d9ef8f702cf87490df791f061c59c84a9baeb9dcf54&scene=126&sessionid=1781659693><strong>雪涛宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>沃什6月FOMC首秀暗藏玄机:他既要用点阵图收紧、删除宽松声明安抚鹰派,又不能触动信用市场神经——英伟达250亿美元新债利差仅65bp,科技融资条件依然宽松。真正的风险不在联邦基金利率,而在沃什一旦祭出\"金融条件偏松\"的表述,信用市场与无风险利率共振收紧,AI资本开支的估值逻辑才会真正动摇。关注沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzMzNzczNQ==&mid=2247520128&idx=1&sn=ff7ff90d4755bed102630ae5c11b0ef1&chksm=e856d00c480a2748ac861d7d43ad83795d9ef8f702cf87490df791f061c59c84a9baeb9dcf54&scene=126&sessionid=1781659693\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0551781a4a5893988c6f642a521b10b","relate_stocks":{"LU2092627202.USD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 USD-H","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS 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ETF-Tradr"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzMzNzczNQ==&mid=2247520128&idx=1&sn=ff7ff90d4755bed102630ae5c11b0ef1&chksm=e856d00c480a2748ac861d7d43ad83795d9ef8f702cf87490df791f061c59c84a9baeb9dcf54&scene=126&sessionid=1781659693","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2644794590","content_text":"沃什6月FOMC首秀暗藏玄机:他既要用点阵图收紧、删除宽松声明安抚鹰派,又不能触动信用市场神经——英伟达250亿美元新债利差仅65bp,科技融资条件依然宽松。真正的风险不在联邦基金利率,而在沃什一旦祭出\"金融条件偏松\"的表述,信用市场与无风险利率共振收紧,AI资本开支的估值逻辑才会真正动摇。关注沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融条件偏松(科技企业融资需求)、是否给出更明确的缩表路径——对于理解后续的货币政策更加重要。6月FOMC会议的沃什首秀所承载的政治意义远胜过经济影响,沃什既要安抚特朗普的政治目的与降息诉求,又要有逻辑地展现出“小格林斯潘”姿态,还要直面当前市场的加息预期和金融条件宽松的局面。一方面,沃什在传统货币政策元素中的表态已经被市场铺垫很久,比如:删除进一步宽松的声明(强调政策双向空间),收紧点阵图利率预期(至年内“不降息”)以及在中东冲击的背景下,调低经济增速预期(2.4%→2%左右)并上调年内核心PCE预期(2.7%→3%左右)。我们认为年内降息的可能性依然存在,至少加息预期回收正在逐步实现,且可期待更多。从最新的经济数据(非农、CPI)来看,推动联储短期内降息的因素是不充分的。哪怕沃什再次端出AI生产力理论,以及淡化单一核心PCE、转向截尾、均值PCE等更温和通胀的观察指标,也需要非农走弱、失业率提升、消费放缓、景气度下行等经济数据的支撑。迄今为止依然韧性的美国经济数据实际上给了联储更多观察的时间窗口,随着和平协定即将签署,美伊战争所带来的第一轮通胀已经见顶;更多的降息预期释放仍依赖于潜在的需求冲击是否兑现;这些是决定联储利率路径的经济因素。在此之前,押注任何极端的货币政策变化都过于激进。另一方面,沃什需要时间建立“专属人设”,包括被反复提及的“不提交点阵图预测”,他已多次表达了点阵图预测“没有太多意义”。但联储的改革也并非一蹴而就,在产业趋势逐渐主导经济叙事的背景下,货币政策必然要更加顺应时代特征。沃什如何看待当前复杂的宏观环境,包括K型分化的延续和AI宏观系统重要性的抬升,可能会更有指向性意义。尤其是沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与沃什的AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融条件偏松(科技企业融资需求)、是否给出更明确的缩表路径——对于理解后续的货币政策更加重要。这三者实质上都与AI紧密相关,尤其是金融条件和缩表远景:国债利率上行,但信用利差仍在收窄,科技企业融资条件依然宽松;同时,AI投资更倾向于通过非银机构(NBFI)融资的特殊性,也成为对缩表(银行准备金)的结构性约束。尽管联邦基金利率市场仍在押注联储加息,但是信用市场却在替联储降息,背后的支撑是银行-非银共同创造信用条件,且非银负责把流动性市场化和杠杆化。沃什能否显著地提及信用宽松,关乎市场对于高利率环境对科技企业CAPEX可持续性的担忧。尤其是沃什自诩“小格林斯潘”的情况下,市场当下联想的并不是1997年3月那次“伟大”的会议(选择加息25bp,但因判断生产力提升,随后长时间保持利率不变);而是1999年6月那次“完美风暴”的开启(开启加息175bp,流动性收紧,信用收缩)。因此,沃什如何自证其对市场友好、为政策保留双向空间,将成为关键。如果他只谈通胀、就业和数据依赖,鹰派信号容易被市场吸收。如果他主动使用“financial conditions remain accommodative”或类似表述,就等于把信用市场拉回政策反应函数。值得注意的是,迄今为止的债券市场对于头部科技企业仍十分友好,规模加权利差还在边际收窄,仅在85bp左右,而本周英伟达新发的250亿美元债券利差更是低至65bp附近。除此之外,沃什的反馈对于非美市场亦非常重要:今年以来头部科技企业开始频繁使用非美元市场,这会成为权益市场外新的AI主题全球映射渠道。对于市场反馈的预期,信用市场需要得到特别重视。例如,科技债利差以及更脆弱的高收益债利差在会后是否产生明显变化,新发科技债是否面临concession,数据中心融资相关的私募信贷是否根据沃什的姿态出现风险重定价,以及低评级的基础设施相关发行人是否开始承压。对于金融市场而言,当下的高利率本身并不是完整紧缩;只有当无风险利率上行与信用利差走阔形成共振,融资约束才会变成估值压力。除此之外,在实体经济出现明显变化(走弱或再加速)前,联储实际上可以稳坐钓鱼台,谋定而后动,这也更加符合沃什期待塑造的低调形象,当前的“碌碌无为”远胜过“大展拳脚”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TQQY":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"02834":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"09086":0.6,"03086":0.6,".DJI":2,"DOG":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,".IXIC":2,"NOCT":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"NDX":2,"PSQ":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"03455":0.6,"07522":0.6,"09834":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"07261":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"03034":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,".SPX":2,"SPYM":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"07266":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"07568":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":575780106815624,"gmtCreate":1781585263994,"gmtModify":1781585606822,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 榜一大哥马斯克:感谢主播特朗普送的美伊协议预期的大礼,to the 火星,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 榜一大哥马斯克:感谢主播特朗普送的美伊协议预期的大礼,to the 火星,","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 榜一大哥马斯克:感谢主播特朗普送的美伊协议预期的大礼,to the 火星,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/575780106815624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":574523513612464,"gmtCreate":1781278488549,"gmtModify":1781280538183,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 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我倒是希望佬马能成,那意味着AI产业是元宇宙1.0一样;但老马已经引领了新能源电动车一次,这第二次引领时代的概率有多大?前面的是乔布斯,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/574523513612464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":574366980268304,"gmtCreate":1781240188670,"gmtModify":1781241256235,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"卖出看跌期权、买入股票(不是卖出),","listText":"卖出看跌期权、买入股票(不是卖出),","text":"卖出看跌期权、买入股票(不是卖出),","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/574366980268304","repostId":"2642239501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2642239501","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1781199567,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2642239501?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-12 01:39","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"几小时内反转!特朗普称取消打击伊朗计划,协议基本定稿、伊朗各方批准,或周末在欧洲签署","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642239501","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特朗普发帖称,美伊磋商已获伊朗最高领导层批准,最终条款获美以等相关方批准,美对伊海上封锁将持续到协议最终敲定为止。伊媒后称,伊朗还未批准任何协议文本。特朗普发帖后,原油转跌,一度跌近4%。特朗普暗示重大协议几天内敲定,称协议一签就开放霍尔木兹海峡,伊朗最高领袖已同意协议,三大美股指刷新日高,至少涨2%。伊朗强硬回应特朗普周四稍早的猛烈打击威胁和夺岛言论:若美再袭,将遭更严厉回击,敌人任何误判都将招致超乎想象的反击。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">短短几小时,美国总统特朗普就让中东局势上演了戏剧性反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间11日周四美股午盘时段,据央视,特朗普在社交媒体发文称,鉴于与伊朗的磋商已提交至伊朗最高领导层并获得批准,作为美国总统,他已取消原定于美东时间当晚针对伊朗实施的打击与轰炸行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普以上社交媒体发帖的时间是美东时间下午1点28分,这时,距离特朗普在社交媒体宣布美东时间周四晚将“非常猛烈”攻击伊朗才过去约五小时。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,一家以色列媒体此后称,伊朗否认存在任何协议。以色列方面表示,并不存在这样的协议。另一以媒援引以色列官员称,对特朗普的声明感到意外,需要等待伊朗方面公布相关内容,才能判断这一说法是否准确。伊朗媒体FARS援引知情人士消息称,伊朗还没有批准与美国协议的任何文本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">发帖宣布取消打击伊朗计划后,特朗普在白宫举行的活动中宣扬将达成一项可能解决美伊冲突的“重大协议”,并暗示该协议将在未来几天内敲定。他说,“文件已基本定稿,所以我们拭目以待”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普说,他预计签署仪式将很快举行,美国副总统万斯将出席,地点可能在欧洲,时间可能是周末。他说,协议一经签署,霍尔木兹海峡将开放,伊朗将不会拥有核武器。他刚刚和以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通了电话,刚刚与卡塔尔、阿联酋、沙特的领导人谈过。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社,在白宫回答媒体提问时,特朗普表示,他相信伊朗最高领袖已经批准美伊协议,并称相关协议是一份“非常强有力的谅解备忘录”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普公布取消袭击伊朗计划后,金融市场迅速反应。三大美股指盘中拉升,均涨超1%。国际原油期货跳水,均重回盘中跌势且刷新日低,布油跌破89.50美元,日内跌3.9%,美油跌破86.60美元,日内跌近3.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8f75ea057ffc5431b1cf837dee714d6\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"574\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普表示美伊协议进入最后定稿阶段、有望本周末签署后,美股涨幅进一步扩大,三大股指刷新日高。美股尾盘时,道指盘中涨超1000点、涨逾2%,标普一度涨2%,纳指涨超2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2623e281e6b7f18de3e6035c28ff3ef\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>特朗普:美对伊海上封锁将持续到协议最终敲定为止 伊朗最高领袖已同意协议</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在周四美股午盘时段发布的帖子里,特朗普还称,美伊磋商的最终条款已获得美国、以色列和阿拉伯盟友等各相关方的批准,美国将继续对伊朗实施海上封锁,直到协议最终敲定为止。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普的帖子写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“相关磋商及最终条款——无论是在总体构想还是具体细节层面——均已获得各相关方的批准,相关方包括美国、以色列、沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、土耳其、巴基斯坦、巴林、科威特、约旦、埃及等。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在本次协议最终敲定之前,海上封锁措施将继续全面有效执行——签约的时间与地点将择期公布。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此后,特朗普在白宫活动中透露,伊朗各方已批准美伊协议,并否认将夺取伊朗出口石油的重要枢纽哈尔克岛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻,特朗普谈及美伊协议称,据他了解,伊朗最高领袖已同意该协议,伊朗各方均已批准该协议。特朗普称,伊朗将不会拥有核武器。特朗普表示,一旦签署谅解备忘录,霍尔木兹海峡将立即开放。他还称,哈尔克岛行动不在考虑之列。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>伊朗强硬回应特朗普周四稍早的猛烈打击威胁和夺岛言论</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以上帖子传递的乐观信号让美伊和谈的前景骤然转好。特朗普在周四美股盘前的表态曾让中东局势面临冲突进一步升级的危险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美东时间11日上午8点22分发布的帖子里,特朗普写道,“今晚”,美国将对伊朗“非常猛烈”的打击。据新华社,特朗普在同一帖子表示,在不久的将来,美国将占领哈尔克岛和其他石油基础设施,并完全控制伊朗的石油和天然气市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">发帖后不久接受美媒采访时,特朗普重申,美军将在美东时间周四晚间“非常猛烈”地打击伊朗。据央视,特朗普当时说:“今晚还会有轰炸,规模更大、威力更强。” 他说,美国与伊朗还在谈判,可能达成“历史上最伟大的协议”,伊朗“可能会举起白旗投降”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">央视提到,特朗普当时称,虽然还在谈判,但他“一直以来都倾向于拿下(伊朗重要石油出口枢纽)哈尔克岛”。这才是他想要的,但他“不确定美国是否有这个胃口去干这件事”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普以上表态公布后,伊朗方面作出强硬回应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻,伊朗武装部队哈塔姆·安比亚中央司令部当地时间6月11日晚发声明警告称:“如果美国企图再次对伊朗发动攻击,必将遭到比以往更为严厉的回击。并且战火将蔓延扩散,导致整个地区陷入不安全的泥潭。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">声明指出,“美国自相矛盾的行径是导致地区、特别是霍尔木兹海峡局势不稳的主要根源。鉴于美方对伊朗石油基础设施发起威胁,那么伊朗要么让石油和天然气出口惠及各方,要么就让所有油气都无法通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视,在特朗普发出夺岛言论后,当地时间6月11日晚,伊朗国防部发布声明称,伊朗国防工业人员将继续全力支持伊朗武装部队,增强威慑力。如今伊朗武装部队的战备水平、作战能力和防御力量都比以往任何时候更加强大。任何针对伊朗国家安全和领土完整的误判或攻击都将遭到坚决反击,其后果将远远超出敌人的想象。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>几小时内反转!特朗普称取消打击伊朗计划,协议基本定稿、伊朗各方批准,或周末在欧洲签署</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n几小时内反转!特朗普称取消打击伊朗计划,协议基本定稿、伊朗各方批准,或周末在欧洲签署\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-12 01:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">短短几小时,美国总统特朗普就让中东局势上演了戏剧性反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间11日周四美股午盘时段,据央视,特朗普在社交媒体发文称,鉴于与伊朗的磋商已提交至伊朗最高领导层并获得批准,作为美国总统,他已取消原定于美东时间当晚针对伊朗实施的打击与轰炸行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普以上社交媒体发帖的时间是美东时间下午1点28分,这时,距离特朗普在社交媒体宣布美东时间周四晚将“非常猛烈”攻击伊朗才过去约五小时。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,一家以色列媒体此后称,伊朗否认存在任何协议。以色列方面表示,并不存在这样的协议。另一以媒援引以色列官员称,对特朗普的声明感到意外,需要等待伊朗方面公布相关内容,才能判断这一说法是否准确。伊朗媒体FARS援引知情人士消息称,伊朗还没有批准与美国协议的任何文本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">发帖宣布取消打击伊朗计划后,特朗普在白宫举行的活动中宣扬将达成一项可能解决美伊冲突的“重大协议”,并暗示该协议将在未来几天内敲定。他说,“文件已基本定稿,所以我们拭目以待”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普说,他预计签署仪式将很快举行,美国副总统万斯将出席,地点可能在欧洲,时间可能是周末。他说,协议一经签署,霍尔木兹海峡将开放,伊朗将不会拥有核武器。他刚刚和以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通了电话,刚刚与卡塔尔、阿联酋、沙特的领导人谈过。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社,在白宫回答媒体提问时,特朗普表示,他相信伊朗最高领袖已经批准美伊协议,并称相关协议是一份“非常强有力的谅解备忘录”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普公布取消袭击伊朗计划后,金融市场迅速反应。三大美股指盘中拉升,均涨超1%。国际原油期货跳水,均重回盘中跌势且刷新日低,布油跌破89.50美元,日内跌3.9%,美油跌破86.60美元,日内跌近3.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8f75ea057ffc5431b1cf837dee714d6\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"574\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普表示美伊协议进入最后定稿阶段、有望本周末签署后,美股涨幅进一步扩大,三大股指刷新日高。美股尾盘时,道指盘中涨超1000点、涨逾2%,标普一度涨2%,纳指涨超2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2623e281e6b7f18de3e6035c28ff3ef\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>特朗普:美对伊海上封锁将持续到协议最终敲定为止 伊朗最高领袖已同意协议</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在周四美股午盘时段发布的帖子里,特朗普还称,美伊磋商的最终条款已获得美国、以色列和阿拉伯盟友等各相关方的批准,美国将继续对伊朗实施海上封锁,直到协议最终敲定为止。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普的帖子写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“相关磋商及最终条款——无论是在总体构想还是具体细节层面——均已获得各相关方的批准,相关方包括美国、以色列、沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、土耳其、巴基斯坦、巴林、科威特、约旦、埃及等。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在本次协议最终敲定之前,海上封锁措施将继续全面有效执行——签约的时间与地点将择期公布。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此后,特朗普在白宫活动中透露,伊朗各方已批准美伊协议,并否认将夺取伊朗出口石油的重要枢纽哈尔克岛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻,特朗普谈及美伊协议称,据他了解,伊朗最高领袖已同意该协议,伊朗各方均已批准该协议。特朗普称,伊朗将不会拥有核武器。特朗普表示,一旦签署谅解备忘录,霍尔木兹海峡将立即开放。他还称,哈尔克岛行动不在考虑之列。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>伊朗强硬回应特朗普周四稍早的猛烈打击威胁和夺岛言论</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以上帖子传递的乐观信号让美伊和谈的前景骤然转好。特朗普在周四美股盘前的表态曾让中东局势面临冲突进一步升级的危险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美东时间11日上午8点22分发布的帖子里,特朗普写道,“今晚”,美国将对伊朗“非常猛烈”的打击。据新华社,特朗普在同一帖子表示,在不久的将来,美国将占领哈尔克岛和其他石油基础设施,并完全控制伊朗的石油和天然气市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">发帖后不久接受美媒采访时,特朗普重申,美军将在美东时间周四晚间“非常猛烈”地打击伊朗。据央视,特朗普当时说:“今晚还会有轰炸,规模更大、威力更强。” 他说,美国与伊朗还在谈判,可能达成“历史上最伟大的协议”,伊朗“可能会举起白旗投降”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">央视提到,特朗普当时称,虽然还在谈判,但他“一直以来都倾向于拿下(伊朗重要石油出口枢纽)哈尔克岛”。这才是他想要的,但他“不确定美国是否有这个胃口去干这件事”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普以上表态公布后,伊朗方面作出强硬回应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻,伊朗武装部队哈塔姆·安比亚中央司令部当地时间6月11日晚发声明警告称:“如果美国企图再次对伊朗发动攻击,必将遭到比以往更为严厉的回击。并且战火将蔓延扩散,导致整个地区陷入不安全的泥潭。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">声明指出,“美国自相矛盾的行径是导致地区、特别是霍尔木兹海峡局势不稳的主要根源。鉴于美方对伊朗石油基础设施发起威胁,那么伊朗要么让石油和天然气出口惠及各方,要么就让所有油气都无法通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视,在特朗普发出夺岛言论后,当地时间6月11日晚,伊朗国防部发布声明称,伊朗国防工业人员将继续全力支持伊朗武装部队,增强威慑力。如今伊朗武装部队的战备水平、作战能力和防御力量都比以往任何时候更加强大。任何针对伊朗国家安全和领土完整的误判或攻击都将遭到坚决反击,其后果将远远超出敌人的想象。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83692fea6556330cd12bfc984a735047","relate_stocks":{"DRLL":"Strive U.S. Energy ETF","WTIU":"MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETN","DIG":"二倍做多美国油气指数","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","FTXN":"First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF","PXE":"Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","XES":"SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF","DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB",".DJI":"道琼斯","IXC":"全球能源业ETF-iShares","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares","DBE":"能源商品ETF-PowerShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","DRIP":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774457","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642239501","content_text":"短短几小时,美国总统特朗普就让中东局势上演了戏剧性反转。美东时间11日周四美股午盘时段,据央视,特朗普在社交媒体发文称,鉴于与伊朗的磋商已提交至伊朗最高领导层并获得批准,作为美国总统,他已取消原定于美东时间当晚针对伊朗实施的打击与轰炸行动。特朗普以上社交媒体发帖的时间是美东时间下午1点28分,这时,距离特朗普在社交媒体宣布美东时间周四晚将“非常猛烈”攻击伊朗才过去约五小时。不过,一家以色列媒体此后称,伊朗否认存在任何协议。以色列方面表示,并不存在这样的协议。另一以媒援引以色列官员称,对特朗普的声明感到意外,需要等待伊朗方面公布相关内容,才能判断这一说法是否准确。伊朗媒体FARS援引知情人士消息称,伊朗还没有批准与美国协议的任何文本。发帖宣布取消打击伊朗计划后,特朗普在白宫举行的活动中宣扬将达成一项可能解决美伊冲突的“重大协议”,并暗示该协议将在未来几天内敲定。他说,“文件已基本定稿,所以我们拭目以待”。特朗普说,他预计签署仪式将很快举行,美国副总统万斯将出席,地点可能在欧洲,时间可能是周末。他说,协议一经签署,霍尔木兹海峡将开放,伊朗将不会拥有核武器。他刚刚和以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通了电话,刚刚与卡塔尔、阿联酋、沙特的领导人谈过。据新华社,在白宫回答媒体提问时,特朗普表示,他相信伊朗最高领袖已经批准美伊协议,并称相关协议是一份“非常强有力的谅解备忘录”。特朗普公布取消袭击伊朗计划后,金融市场迅速反应。三大美股指盘中拉升,均涨超1%。国际原油期货跳水,均重回盘中跌势且刷新日低,布油跌破89.50美元,日内跌3.9%,美油跌破86.60美元,日内跌近3.9%。特朗普表示美伊协议进入最后定稿阶段、有望本周末签署后,美股涨幅进一步扩大,三大股指刷新日高。美股尾盘时,道指盘中涨超1000点、涨逾2%,标普一度涨2%,纳指涨超2%。特朗普:美对伊海上封锁将持续到协议最终敲定为止 伊朗最高领袖已同意协议在周四美股午盘时段发布的帖子里,特朗普还称,美伊磋商的最终条款已获得美国、以色列和阿拉伯盟友等各相关方的批准,美国将继续对伊朗实施海上封锁,直到协议最终敲定为止。特朗普的帖子写道:“相关磋商及最终条款——无论是在总体构想还是具体细节层面——均已获得各相关方的批准,相关方包括美国、以色列、沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、土耳其、巴基斯坦、巴林、科威特、约旦、埃及等。在本次协议最终敲定之前,海上封锁措施将继续全面有效执行——签约的时间与地点将择期公布。”此后,特朗普在白宫活动中透露,伊朗各方已批准美伊协议,并否认将夺取伊朗出口石油的重要枢纽哈尔克岛。据央视新闻,特朗普谈及美伊协议称,据他了解,伊朗最高领袖已同意该协议,伊朗各方均已批准该协议。特朗普称,伊朗将不会拥有核武器。特朗普表示,一旦签署谅解备忘录,霍尔木兹海峡将立即开放。他还称,哈尔克岛行动不在考虑之列。伊朗强硬回应特朗普周四稍早的猛烈打击威胁和夺岛言论以上帖子传递的乐观信号让美伊和谈的前景骤然转好。特朗普在周四美股盘前的表态曾让中东局势面临冲突进一步升级的危险。在美东时间11日上午8点22分发布的帖子里,特朗普写道,“今晚”,美国将对伊朗“非常猛烈”的打击。据新华社,特朗普在同一帖子表示,在不久的将来,美国将占领哈尔克岛和其他石油基础设施,并完全控制伊朗的石油和天然气市场。发帖后不久接受美媒采访时,特朗普重申,美军将在美东时间周四晚间“非常猛烈”地打击伊朗。据央视,特朗普当时说:“今晚还会有轰炸,规模更大、威力更强。” 他说,美国与伊朗还在谈判,可能达成“历史上最伟大的协议”,伊朗“可能会举起白旗投降”。央视提到,特朗普当时称,虽然还在谈判,但他“一直以来都倾向于拿下(伊朗重要石油出口枢纽)哈尔克岛”。这才是他想要的,但他“不确定美国是否有这个胃口去干这件事”。特朗普以上表态公布后,伊朗方面作出强硬回应。据央视新闻,伊朗武装部队哈塔姆·安比亚中央司令部当地时间6月11日晚发声明警告称:“如果美国企图再次对伊朗发动攻击,必将遭到比以往更为严厉的回击。并且战火将蔓延扩散,导致整个地区陷入不安全的泥潭。”声明指出,“美国自相矛盾的行径是导致地区、特别是霍尔木兹海峡局势不稳的主要根源。鉴于美方对伊朗石油基础设施发起威胁,那么伊朗要么让石油和天然气出口惠及各方,要么就让所有油气都无法通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。”据央视,在特朗普发出夺岛言论后,当地时间6月11日晚,伊朗国防部发布声明称,伊朗国防工业人员将继续全力支持伊朗武装部队,增强威慑力。如今伊朗武装部队的战备水平、作战能力和防御力量都比以往任何时候更加强大。任何针对伊朗国家安全和领土完整的误判或攻击都将遭到坚决反击,其后果将远远超出敌人的想象。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IXC":0.74,"YMmain":2,"DBE":0.74,"XES":0.74,"FTXN":0.74,"XOP":0.74,".SPX":2,"ERX":0.74,"DRIP":0.74,"GUSH":0.74,"PXJ":0.74,"ESmain":2,"PXE":0.74,"VDE":0.74,"WTIU":0.74,".IXIC":2,"DIG":0.74,"DRLL":0.74,"IEO":0.74,"NQmain":2,"DBC":0.74,".DJI":2,"USE":0.74}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}