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黑眼圈太重了邓文
先赚88888888万亿美金再说!
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-22 17:20
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
现在VS70年代: 79年代:黄金暴涨20+倍、财政赤字扩张、美联储降息、太空竞赛、消费服务高涨、油价高位, 现在:黄金暴涨、财政赤字走高、AI竞赛、油价由于地缘非常的易涨、 米勒贝森特想不走70的老路:杀太空杀消费服务杀油价,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-22 11:54
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
伊朗得了3000亿的赔偿,发不发展核武器现在是伊朗民众说了算,美帝反对、伊朗民众会自发的跟美帝对着干,即使美大兵进入伊朗、小孩都会拿根木棍上去攻击美大兵,如果伊朗政权反对发展核武器、伊朗民众会推翻这个政权,伊朗核武器大势已成,无神能挡,
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
伊朗:我没有核武器、你特朗普都不能拿我怎么样、还乖乖的送3000亿美元赔偿给我,后面我就是发展核武器你特朗普又能把我怎么样、到时候乖乖的送3万亿美元过来;
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
贝森特和米勒不想走70年代的老路,必杀太空和消费服务,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
关于美联储主席:沃尔克、格林斯潘、伯克南、鲍威尔,都是通过先行加息、加到出了问题、然后自己出来收拾残局才座稳美联储主席宝座的,并大刀阔斧的实行自己的施政理念,然后搞成了,才成就了自己美联储厉害主席的美名, 前面成功的道路在哪里,沃什想加息加出问题、还是降息降出问题来,加息pass特朗普第一个就得找他麻烦,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
关于沃什首秀: 1) 沃什自己对于通胀、利率的观点什么都没有,推出五个工作组来跟美联储内部打擂台,毕竟上次沃什关于生产力压低通胀的说法、被鲍威尔的铁杆小弟怼回去了,这次把自己隐藏起来再说,黑箱操作,会前市场都有预期到, 2)看参议院投票,分支是最大的,也就是沃什的权利来源于特朗普让美国再次伟大的阵营,不是国会,这就意味着降息才是大小王,不管后面中期选举怎么走、经济怎么走、AI浪潮怎么走,只要五个工作组赢了,降息才是美联储的主轴,而加息是市场预期的, 3)时代的大势而在呼吁降息:目前黄金-新科技-周期的链条、替换大QE-大科技-消费服务的链条,是典型的逆全球化、替代全球化,现在70年代的味道越来越浓了:黄金财政赤字-制造业服务消费-太空竞赛-美联储降息,70年代的粗链条里面,米勒贝森特剥离出了:黄金- AI浪潮-周期出来,现在服务消费业80%的占比、制造业10的占比,正是推动制作业占比加大、消费服务业减少的时候,如果还是70年代的链条、玩不转、要推倒重来;这波剥离精简出来,是走的巧路, 沃什首秀都在预期内、不出格不出彩,叠加娶富家女的男的什么德行,一切都明摆着,
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
所以,我们要站在趋势的一边:降息;而市场预期的加息都是错误定价,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-18
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
强盗、小偷、妓女、骗子;当年考强盗、小偷逻辑当成了世界帝国,现在在逆全球化中,靠骗子来大行其道了,看美国人民选出的总统:特朗普,
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-17
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
朗子:谢谢美国送来的3000亿美元投资计划,别说3000亿、就是3000万亿美元、我们都照单全收,到时等果园的果子成熟的时候、学别人、把门一关就行,到时如果我有核弹你们能奈我何、即使没核弹、这次你们都不能能奈我何,到时又能奈我何,美国欧洲海湾的people们,这是当年欧洲的马歇尔计划啊,快来投资我们伊朗吧,
$标普500(.SPX)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-17
沃什娶的是富家女,看你们身边娶了当地有点钱家里的女人的男的是什么德行;唯一的是米勒的弟子,
FOMC前瞻:沃什的第一把火烧向哪儿?
6月FOMC会议的沃什首秀所承载的政治意义远胜过经济影响,沃什既要安抚特朗普的政治目的与降息诉求,又要有逻辑地展现出“小格林斯潘”姿态,还要直面当前市场的加息预期和金融条件宽松的局面。沃什能否显著地提及信用宽松,关乎市场对于高利率环境对科技企业CAPEX可持续性的担忧。因此,沃什如何自证其对市场友好、为政策保留双向空间,将成为关键。
FOMC前瞻:沃什的第一把火烧向哪儿?
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黑眼圈太重了邓文
黑眼圈太重了邓文
·
06-16
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
榜一大哥马斯克:感谢主播特朗普送的美伊协议预期的大礼,to the 火星,
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$SpaceX(SPCX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/577851471839976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3496346935589210","authorId":"3496346935589210","name":"2567啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0ea9c62916520ddaa20ebac4b0dbc3a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3496346935589210","authorIdStr":"3496346935589210"},"content":"情绪不稳定的教派郭嘉,还是无核比较好,狂热粽教这种东西向来不太理智","text":"情绪不稳定的教派郭嘉,还是无核比较好,狂热粽教这种东西向来不太理智","html":"情绪不稳定的教派郭嘉,还是无核比较好,狂热粽教这种东西向来不太理智"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576784254954080,"gmtCreate":1781840026262,"gmtModify":1781840878046,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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关于美联储主席:沃尔克、格林斯潘、伯克南、鲍威尔,都是通过先行加息、加到出了问题、然后自己出来收拾残局才座稳美联储主席宝座的,并大刀阔斧的实行自己的施政理念,然后搞成了,才成就了自己美联储厉害主席的美名, 前面成功的道路在哪里,沃什想加息加出问题、还是降息降出问题来,加息pass特朗普第一个就得找他麻烦,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 关于美联储主席:沃尔克、格林斯潘、伯克南、鲍威尔,都是通过先行加息、加到出了问题、然后自己出来收拾残局才座稳美联储主席宝座的,并大刀阔斧的实行自己的施政理念,然后搞成了,才成就了自己美联储厉害主席的美名, 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所以,我们要站在趋势的一边:降息;而市场预期的加息都是错误定价,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576493421089112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576448149870736,"gmtCreate":1781757962622,"gmtModify":1781759678737,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 强盗、小偷、妓女、骗子;当年考强盗、小偷逻辑当成了世界帝国,现在在逆全球化中,靠骗子来大行其道了,看美国人民选出的总统:特朗普,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 强盗、小偷、妓女、骗子;当年考强盗、小偷逻辑当成了世界帝国,现在在逆全球化中,靠骗子来大行其道了,看美国人民选出的总统:特朗普,","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 强盗、小偷、妓女、骗子;当年考强盗、小偷逻辑当成了世界帝国,现在在逆全球化中,靠骗子来大行其道了,看美国人民选出的总统:特朗普,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576448149870736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569472643212871","authorId":"3569472643212871","name":"查理Mango","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf5da54990ef22ebb6c837a00906ad75","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569472643212871","authorIdStr":"3569472643212871"},"content":"那你留在正义的A股啊","text":"那你留在正义的A股啊","html":"那你留在正义的A股啊"},{"author":{"id":"3478857979439113","authorId":"3478857979439113","name":"Jamesch0737","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3478857979439113","authorIdStr":"3478857979439113"},"content":"最大的庞氏骗局[开心]","text":"最大的庞氏骗局[开心]","html":"最大的庞氏骗局[开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576240781112080,"gmtCreate":1781707262459,"gmtModify":1781708935977,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 朗子:谢谢美国送来的3000亿美元投资计划,别说3000亿、就是3000万亿美元、我们都照单全收,到时等果园的果子成熟的时候、学别人、把门一关就行,到时如果我有核弹你们能奈我何、即使没核弹、这次你们都不能能奈我何,到时又能奈我何,美国欧洲海湾的people们,这是当年欧洲的马歇尔计划啊,快来投资我们伊朗吧,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 朗子:谢谢美国送来的3000亿美元投资计划,别说3000亿、就是3000万亿美元、我们都照单全收,到时等果园的果子成熟的时候、学别人、把门一关就行,到时如果我有核弹你们能奈我何、即使没核弹、这次你们都不能能奈我何,到时又能奈我何,美国欧洲海湾的people们,这是当年欧洲的马歇尔计划啊,快来投资我们伊朗吧,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a> ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 朗子:谢谢美国送来的3000亿美元投资计划,别说3000亿、就是3000万亿美元、我们都照单全收,到时等果园的果子成熟的时候、学别人、把门一关就行,到时如果我有核弹你们能奈我何、即使没核弹、这次你们都不能能奈我何,到时又能奈我何,美国欧洲海湾的people们,这是当年欧洲的马歇尔计划啊,快来投资我们伊朗吧,$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576240781112080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4192070439977982","authorId":"4192070439977982","name":"老虎同学好","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4192070439977982","authorIdStr":"4192070439977982"},"content":"这3000亿相当于伊朗的卖身契,估计伊朗很多设施将被美国控股,控制,老特是生意人,大赚","text":"这3000亿相当于伊朗的卖身契,估计伊朗很多设施将被美国控股,控制,老特是生意人,大赚","html":"这3000亿相当于伊朗的卖身契,估计伊朗很多设施将被美国控股,控制,老特是生意人,大赚"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576132497613016,"gmtCreate":1781671332048,"gmtModify":1781673635865,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"沃什娶的是富家女,看你们身边娶了当地有点钱家里的女人的男的是什么德行;唯一的是米勒的弟子,","listText":"沃什娶的是富家女,看你们身边娶了当地有点钱家里的女人的男的是什么德行;唯一的是米勒的弟子,","text":"沃什娶的是富家女,看你们身边娶了当地有点钱家里的女人的男的是什么德行;唯一的是米勒的弟子,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576132497613016","repostId":"2644794590","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2644794590","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1781666435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2644794590?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-17 11:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"FOMC前瞻:沃什的第一把火烧向哪儿?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2644794590","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"6月FOMC会议的沃什首秀所承载的政治意义远胜过经济影响,沃什既要安抚特朗普的政治目的与降息诉求,又要有逻辑地展现出“小格林斯潘”姿态,还要直面当前市场的加息预期和金融条件宽松的局面。沃什能否显著地提及信用宽松,关乎市场对于高利率环境对科技企业CAPEX可持续性的担忧。因此,沃什如何自证其对市场友好、为政策保留双向空间,将成为关键。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>沃什6月FOMC首秀暗藏玄机:他既要用点阵图收紧、删除宽松声明安抚鹰派,又不能触动信用市场神经——英伟达250亿美元新债利差仅65bp,科技融资条件依然宽松。真正的风险不在联邦基金利率,而在沃什一旦祭出"金融条件偏松"的表述,信用市场与无风险利率共振收紧,AI资本开支的估值逻辑才会真正动摇。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关注沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融条件偏松(科技企业融资需求)、是否给出更明确的缩表路径——对于理解后续的货币政策更加重要。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月FOMC会议的沃什首秀所承载的政治意义远胜过经济影响,沃什既要安抚特朗普的政治目的与降息诉求,又要有逻辑地展现出“小格林斯潘”姿态,还要直面当前市场的加息预期和金融条件宽松的局面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方面,沃什在传统货币政策元素中的表态已经被市场铺垫很久,比如:删除进一步宽松的声明(强调政策双向空间),收紧点阵图利率预期(至年内“不降息”)以及在中东冲击的背景下,调低经济增速预期(2.4%→2%左右)并上调年内核心PCE预期(2.7%→3%左右)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我们认为年内降息的可能性依然存在,至少加息预期回收正在逐步实现,且可期待更多。</strong>从最新的经济数据(非农、CPI)来看,推动联储短期内降息的因素是不充分的。哪怕沃什再次端出AI生产力理论,以及淡化单一核心PCE、转向截尾、均值PCE等更温和通胀的观察指标,也需要非农走弱、失业率提升、消费放缓、景气度下行等经济数据的支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">迄今为止依然韧性的美国经济数据实际上给了联储更多观察的时间窗口,随着和平协定即将签署,美伊战争所带来的第一轮通胀已经见顶;更多的降息预期释放仍依赖于潜在的需求冲击是否兑现;这些是决定联储利率路径的经济因素。在此之前,押注任何极端的货币政策变化都过于激进。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3913a8f68bd0855457f844f00b9c0d21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面,沃什需要时间建立“专属人设”,包括被反复提及的“不提交点阵图预测”,他已多次表达了点阵图预测“没有太多意义”。但联储的改革也并非一蹴而就,在产业趋势逐渐主导经济叙事的背景下,货币政策必然要更加顺应时代特征。沃什如何看待当前复杂的宏观环境,包括K型分化的延续和AI宏观系统重要性的抬升,可能会更有指向性意义。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尤其是沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与沃什的AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融条件偏松(科技企业融资需求)、是否给出更明确的缩表路径——对于理解后续的货币政策更加重要。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c88d68a22a79112789e61d047c5f237\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这三者实质上都与AI紧密相关,尤其是金融条件和缩表远景:国债利率上行,但信用利差仍在收窄,科技企业融资条件依然宽松;同时,AI投资更倾向于通过非银机构(NBFI)融资的特殊性,也成为对缩表(银行准备金)的结构性约束。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d23a3fa6a0d8080ad1511787fba02832\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管联邦基金利率市场仍在押注联储加息,但是信用市场却在替联储降息,背后的支撑是银行-非银共同创造信用条件,且非银负责把流动性市场化和杠杆化。沃什能否显著地提及信用宽松,关乎市场对于高利率环境对科技企业CAPEX可持续性的担忧。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a0dfb63fd1b0e6c80d6bb22455ecdf6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尤其是沃什自诩“小格林斯潘”的情况下,市场当下联想的并不是1997年3月那次“伟大”的会议(选择加息25bp,但因判断生产力提升,随后长时间保持利率不变);而是1999年6月那次“完美风暴”的开启(开启加息175bp,流动性收紧,信用收缩)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此,沃什如何自证其对市场友好、为政策保留双向空间,将成为关键。如果他只谈通胀、就业和数据依赖,鹰派信号容易被市场吸收。如果他主动使用“financial conditions remain accommodative”或类似表述,就等于把信用市场拉回政策反应函数。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是,迄今为止的债券市场对于头部科技企业仍十分友好,规模加权利差还在边际收窄,仅在85bp左右,而本周英伟达新发的250亿美元债券利差更是低至65bp附近。除此之外,沃什的反馈对于非美市场亦非常重要:今年以来头部科技企业开始频繁使用非美元市场,这会成为权益市场外新的AI主题全球映射渠道。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40455485add77f56675d83ae3341aa6f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于市场反馈的预期,信用市场需要得到特别重视。例如,科技债利差以及更脆弱的高收益债利差在会后是否产生明显变化,新发科技债是否面临concession,数据中心融资相关的私募信贷是否根据沃什的姿态出现风险重定价,以及低评级的基础设施相关发行人是否开始承压。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8087e3a3707eb03e5da31f94b84b85e3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于金融市场而言,当下的高利率本身并不是完整紧缩;只有当无风险利率上行与信用利差走阔形成共振,融资约束才会变成估值压力。除此之外,在实体经济出现明显变化(走弱或再加速)前,联储实际上可以稳坐钓鱼台,谋定而后动,这也更加符合沃什期待塑造的低调形象,当前的“碌碌无为”远胜过“大展拳脚”。</p></body></html>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC前瞻:沃什的第一把火烧向哪儿?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-17 11:20 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzMzNzczNQ==&mid=2247520128&idx=1&sn=ff7ff90d4755bed102630ae5c11b0ef1&chksm=e856d00c480a2748ac861d7d43ad83795d9ef8f702cf87490df791f061c59c84a9baeb9dcf54&scene=126&sessionid=1781659693><strong>雪涛宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>沃什6月FOMC首秀暗藏玄机:他既要用点阵图收紧、删除宽松声明安抚鹰派,又不能触动信用市场神经——英伟达250亿美元新债利差仅65bp,科技融资条件依然宽松。真正的风险不在联邦基金利率,而在沃什一旦祭出\"金融条件偏松\"的表述,信用市场与无风险利率共振收紧,AI资本开支的估值逻辑才会真正动摇。关注沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzMzNzczNQ==&mid=2247520128&idx=1&sn=ff7ff90d4755bed102630ae5c11b0ef1&chksm=e856d00c480a2748ac861d7d43ad83795d9ef8f702cf87490df791f061c59c84a9baeb9dcf54&scene=126&sessionid=1781659693\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0551781a4a5893988c6f642a521b10b","relate_stocks":{"LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzMzNzczNQ==&mid=2247520128&idx=1&sn=ff7ff90d4755bed102630ae5c11b0ef1&chksm=e856d00c480a2748ac861d7d43ad83795d9ef8f702cf87490df791f061c59c84a9baeb9dcf54&scene=126&sessionid=1781659693","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2644794590","content_text":"沃什6月FOMC首秀暗藏玄机:他既要用点阵图收紧、删除宽松声明安抚鹰派,又不能触动信用市场神经——英伟达250亿美元新债利差仅65bp,科技融资条件依然宽松。真正的风险不在联邦基金利率,而在沃什一旦祭出\"金融条件偏松\"的表述,信用市场与无风险利率共振收紧,AI资本开支的估值逻辑才会真正动摇。关注沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融条件偏松(科技企业融资需求)、是否给出更明确的缩表路径——对于理解后续的货币政策更加重要。6月FOMC会议的沃什首秀所承载的政治意义远胜过经济影响,沃什既要安抚特朗普的政治目的与降息诉求,又要有逻辑地展现出“小格林斯潘”姿态,还要直面当前市场的加息预期和金融条件宽松的局面。一方面,沃什在传统货币政策元素中的表态已经被市场铺垫很久,比如:删除进一步宽松的声明(强调政策双向空间),收紧点阵图利率预期(至年内“不降息”)以及在中东冲击的背景下,调低经济增速预期(2.4%→2%左右)并上调年内核心PCE预期(2.7%→3%左右)。我们认为年内降息的可能性依然存在,至少加息预期回收正在逐步实现,且可期待更多。从最新的经济数据(非农、CPI)来看,推动联储短期内降息的因素是不充分的。哪怕沃什再次端出AI生产力理论,以及淡化单一核心PCE、转向截尾、均值PCE等更温和通胀的观察指标,也需要非农走弱、失业率提升、消费放缓、景气度下行等经济数据的支撑。迄今为止依然韧性的美国经济数据实际上给了联储更多观察的时间窗口,随着和平协定即将签署,美伊战争所带来的第一轮通胀已经见顶;更多的降息预期释放仍依赖于潜在的需求冲击是否兑现;这些是决定联储利率路径的经济因素。在此之前,押注任何极端的货币政策变化都过于激进。另一方面,沃什需要时间建立“专属人设”,包括被反复提及的“不提交点阵图预测”,他已多次表达了点阵图预测“没有太多意义”。但联储的改革也并非一蹴而就,在产业趋势逐渐主导经济叙事的背景下,货币政策必然要更加顺应时代特征。沃什如何看待当前复杂的宏观环境,包括K型分化的延续和AI宏观系统重要性的抬升,可能会更有指向性意义。尤其是沃什在以下三个方面的阐述:长期利率是否被进一步调高(如何与沃什的AI生产力理论“有机融合”)、是否认为当前金融条件偏松(科技企业融资需求)、是否给出更明确的缩表路径——对于理解后续的货币政策更加重要。这三者实质上都与AI紧密相关,尤其是金融条件和缩表远景:国债利率上行,但信用利差仍在收窄,科技企业融资条件依然宽松;同时,AI投资更倾向于通过非银机构(NBFI)融资的特殊性,也成为对缩表(银行准备金)的结构性约束。尽管联邦基金利率市场仍在押注联储加息,但是信用市场却在替联储降息,背后的支撑是银行-非银共同创造信用条件,且非银负责把流动性市场化和杠杆化。沃什能否显著地提及信用宽松,关乎市场对于高利率环境对科技企业CAPEX可持续性的担忧。尤其是沃什自诩“小格林斯潘”的情况下,市场当下联想的并不是1997年3月那次“伟大”的会议(选择加息25bp,但因判断生产力提升,随后长时间保持利率不变);而是1999年6月那次“完美风暴”的开启(开启加息175bp,流动性收紧,信用收缩)。因此,沃什如何自证其对市场友好、为政策保留双向空间,将成为关键。如果他只谈通胀、就业和数据依赖,鹰派信号容易被市场吸收。如果他主动使用“financial conditions remain accommodative”或类似表述,就等于把信用市场拉回政策反应函数。值得注意的是,迄今为止的债券市场对于头部科技企业仍十分友好,规模加权利差还在边际收窄,仅在85bp左右,而本周英伟达新发的250亿美元债券利差更是低至65bp附近。除此之外,沃什的反馈对于非美市场亦非常重要:今年以来头部科技企业开始频繁使用非美元市场,这会成为权益市场外新的AI主题全球映射渠道。对于市场反馈的预期,信用市场需要得到特别重视。例如,科技债利差以及更脆弱的高收益债利差在会后是否产生明显变化,新发科技债是否面临concession,数据中心融资相关的私募信贷是否根据沃什的姿态出现风险重定价,以及低评级的基础设施相关发行人是否开始承压。对于金融市场而言,当下的高利率本身并不是完整紧缩;只有当无风险利率上行与信用利差走阔形成共振,融资约束才会变成估值压力。除此之外,在实体经济出现明显变化(走弱或再加速)前,联储实际上可以稳坐钓鱼台,谋定而后动,这也更加符合沃什期待塑造的低调形象,当前的“碌碌无为”远胜过“大展拳脚”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPYH":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"02834":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"07568":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"09834":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"03034":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SH":0.6,".DJI":2,"IVV":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,".IXIC":2,"YSPY":0.6,"07522":0.6,"NDX":2,"SSO":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,".SPX":2,"SDOW":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"03086":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"07261":0.6,"07266":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"03455":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"09086":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SPYU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":575780106815624,"gmtCreate":1781585263994,"gmtModify":1781585606822,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"黑眼圈太重了邓文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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