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3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)
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葡萄基金
·
12-16
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
真是
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 真是
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DA6:
这个ETF一直都是跌
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葡萄基金
·
12-16
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
草了
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 草了
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葡萄基金
·
12-05
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
买了两年收益为零[笑哭]
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 买了两年收益为零[笑哭]
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公司研究室
·
12-13
每周回顾 美联储2026年降息节奏存分歧;中兴通讯再次面临美国巨额罚款
Hi~新朋友,记得点蓝字关注我们哟 【导读】 政治局会议定调2026年经济 美联储2026年降息节奏存分歧 中兴通讯再次面临美国巨额罚款 险资入市再迎利好 SpaceX加速IPO准备 宏观&行业 中央政治局会议定调2026年经济 12月8日,中央政治局分析研究2026年经济工作。针对宏观政策基调,会议表示,明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,切实提升宏观经济治理效能。远东资信研究院副院长表示,与去年会议“加大财政支出强度”的表述不同,本次会议在表述口吻上相对弱化,预计2026年全国两会公布的预算赤字大概率仍为4%,对应约5.9万亿元财政赤字,地方政府专项债或略有增加至4.5万亿元。 美联储2026年降息节奏存分歧 当地时间12月11日,美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点,至3.5%-3.75%区间,这是2025年以来的第三次降息,累计降息幅度达75个基点。市场此前已充分定价(概率>80%),决议公布后美债收益率小幅波动,10年期美债收益率维持在4.17%附近。鲍威尔暗示2026年政策将更依赖数据,市场对后续降息节奏存分歧。 同时,美联储宣布自12月12日起每月购买400亿美元国库券,旨在充实金融体系准备金,缓解银行体系流动性压力,支撑信贷市场平稳运行。 白酒价格持续下跌 国内白酒市场价格下行压力持续加大,据行业监测数据显示,12月10日,53度飞天茅台全国批发价已跌至1500元/瓶,逼近1499元的官方指导价,创近三年历史新低,较年初的2800元/瓶跌幅达46.4%。除飞天茅台外,五粮液、泸州老窖等高端白酒价格也出现不同程度下滑,52度五粮液批发价从年初的1300元/瓶跌至950元/瓶,跌幅约26.9%。 白酒价格下跌
每周回顾 美联储2026年降息节奏存分歧;中兴通讯再次面临美国巨额罚款
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Richvip
·
12-01
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion 垂直价差 251219 PUT 40.0/PUT 37.0$
日本加息对TLT美债有何影响? 对TLT和TMF价格的影响路径主要通过全球利率联动、套利交易平仓和市场情绪三个核心机制传导,整体呈现利空压力但程度差异显著。 📉 核心影响路径分析 1. 全球利率联动机制 日本加息将推升全球无风险利率锚点,直接打压长端美债价格: 利率传导:日本国债收益率上升(如2年期已达2008年来最高)4,削弱美债相对吸引力,引发外资回流 期限溢价重定价:20年期以上美债对利率更敏感,TLT久期约18年,理论跌幅≈久期×利率升幅 20+年期国债。 2. 套利交易(Carry Trade)平仓冲击 日元套利交易规模约4000亿美元,平仓过程分三阶段冲击TMF: 抛售美债:日本机构减持海外高收益资产回流本土 流动性紧缩:套利盘平仓加剧美债抛压,TMF作为3倍杠杆产品承受放大波动 波动率飙升:当前TMF日振幅达1.81%(高于TLT的0.64%),杠杆效应可能触发止损盘 3. 市场情绪与政策预期分化 美联储降息对冲:CME显示12月降息概率87.4%1若兑现可部分抵消日本加息压力 风险偏好切换:日股暴跌(日经单日跌千点15)可能引发避险情绪,支撑国债需求。 短期看,日本加息对TLT有一定影响;对TMF三倍影响更大。
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion 垂直价差 251219 PUT 40.0/PUT 37.0$ 日本加息对TLT美债有何影响? 对TLT...
# 晒晒更赚钱
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HilaryWilde:
分析到位,TMF杠杆风险确实要警惕
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Richvip
·
11-27
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion 垂直价差 251219 PUT 40.0/PUT 37.0$
降息预期加强,期权布局美债 策略:垂直价差做多TMF sell 20251219 40put+buy20251219 37put Delta:0.208,IV/HV:1.58 共计5手 最大盈利:300$,最大亏损:1202$ 保证金:1500$,盈亏平衡点:39.4$ 开仓原因: 近期市场预期美联储12月降息概率达80%,10年期美债收益率跌破4%,利好TMF三倍做多20年期美债。但美联储内部仍存在分歧,可带来政策不确定性。 TMF短期支撑位40.11,阻力位41.41,当前价41.51已经突破阻力位;41.41将成为短期支撑点。IV/HV比率1.58,隐含波动率高于历史;做卖方更有利;但目前IV百分比7.2%,处于低位,意味着IV值可能会升高,对卖方不利。
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion 垂直价差 251219 PUT 40.0/PUT 37.0$ 降息预期加强,期权布局美债 策略:垂直价...
# 晒晒更赚钱
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sadsam:
阻力突破转支撑,IV低位做卖方有利!
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国际投行研究报告
·
12-09
美股还要涨!华尔街的焦虑情绪已被希望所取代!图解投资者再度看好美股的五个理由!
点击蓝字 关注我们 美股还要涨!华尔街的焦虑情绪已被希望所取代!图解投资者再度看好美股的五个理由! 华尔街的焦虑情绪已被希望所取代。事实证明,对AI的乐观情绪是持久的,而且其他重要因素也在推动股市上涨。 华尔街的焦虑情绪已被希望所取代。 股市已回升至纪录高位附近,从一轮跌势中反弹。此前的下跌是因为市场担心,围绕人工智能(AI)热潮的兴奋情绪已超越其潜在利润。 事实证明,对AI的乐观情绪是持久的。但其他重要因素也在推动股市上涨。以下是投资者预计此轮涨势可能进一步延续的一些原因: 股票估值情况不算太糟 按某些指标衡量,例如传统的市盈率,目前的股价看起来估值高企。尽管如此,即便是这些比率也仍低于上世纪90年代互联网泡沫时期达到的峰值。而且从其他方面来看,股票估值并没有那么离谱。 许多华尔街分析师认为,给股票估值的最佳方法是将其盈利收益率——即盈价比,以百分比表示——与超安全的政府债券收益率进行比较。额外的收益显示出投资者因持有风险高得多的工具而获得了多少补偿。 该指标的一个流行版本被称为“超额CAPE收益率”,它使用标普500指数成份股公司过去10年的平均盈利,并对这些盈利和10年期美国国债收益率都进行了通胀调整。 截至11月,该收益率为1.7%。按历史标准衡量,这个水平较低,表明高股价已压缩了持有股票相对于债券的回报。但这种情形远非史无前例,而且实际上高于1月份的1.2%,受到劳动力市场降温和美联储恢复降息推动10年期美国国债收益率下降影响。 经济增长为盈利提供支撑 归根结底,股票与消费者支出的近期前景密切相关。 眼下,人们对美国经济存在一些担忧。就业增长已显著放缓,失业率也小幅走高——足以促使美联储降息。 但投资者和经济学家并不那么担心。许多人认为,就业增长放缓主要是因为移民急剧减少。假日支出开局强劲,每周申请失业救济人数也一直处于低位。 所有这些都料将对公司的盈利有利。分析
美股还要涨!华尔街的焦虑情绪已被希望所取代!图解投资者再度看好美股的五个理由!
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leadahead
·
11-10
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
问大家个问题,这个股票分红预扣的税会退吗?
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 问大家个问题,这个股票分红预扣的税会退吗?
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幸运超人
·
11-10
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
# 晒晒更赚钱
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Richvip
·
10-28
$TMF 20251107 43.0 CALL$
降息预期来临,期权杠杆增收! 上次鲍威尔的鸽派讲话,让2025年度剩下的2个多月具体降息多少充满期待,10月降息预期值达到90%以上;本周将迎来鲍威尔公布美联储的决议。 新公布的是cpi数据表明美国企业在关税大背景下,通过降本增效发展不错;通胀率也有所下降;更增加了市场对美联储本周的预期。 在配置TLT的情况下,再开仓美债期权,增加预期收益是增收的不错方式。
$TMF 20251107 43.0 CALL$降息预期来临,期权杠杆增收! 上次鲍威尔的鸽派讲话,让2025年度剩下的2个多月具体降息多少充满期待,10...
# 晒晒更赚钱
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ZZZZZZHU
·
10-27
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
# 晒晒更赚钱
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点击我就能取名哦
·
10-22
$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$
完美match交易逻辑,这个赚的是认知内的钱//
@点击我就能取名哦
:开始加仓长债,买入3层仓位
$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
@点击我就能取名哦:
开始加仓长债,买入3层仓位 $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$ $3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
开始加仓长债,买入3层仓位 $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$ $3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$ 完美match交易逻辑,这个赚的是认知内的钱//@点击我就能取名哦:开始加仓长债,买入3层仓位 ...
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Katrina:
差不多要走了吗?老师,跟着买了
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发發虎
·
10-21
【一起发财】美债上涨,虎友抄底TMF狂赚252%,你跟上了吗?
随着美债收益率连续跌破关键点位,国债市场的避险情绪被彻底点燃。有人恐慌,有人抄底,而有虎友靠押注
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
狂赚252%。本期,我们就来聊聊:为什么市场资金重新涌向美债?美联储降息周期下,为什么利好美债ETF?普通投资者又该如何布局?让我们一探究竟!虎友
@财富种植园
精准抄底
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
,收益高达252%欢迎以上虎友添加虎妞微信(微信:itiger2014),聊聊你的抄底思路,赢取老虎限量周边,还有机会获得官方专访!美债为什么又火了?过去几周,美国政府停摆、区域性银行风险再度升温,让投资者重新想起了美债的“避风港”角色。关键就业与通胀数据难产,信贷恐慌蔓延,市场一度陷入避险狂潮:两年期美债收益率跌破3.4%,创2022年以来新低;10年期收益率失守4%,创下四月以来最大跌幅。这种走势不禁让人联想到2023年硅谷银行倒闭事件——当时,两年期收益率暴跌超100个基点,带动债市全面大反弹。而这次,情绪几乎如出一辙。当然,避险买盘只是导火索,真正推动美债走强的,,是“降息预期”。随着就业放缓、通胀回落,市场普遍相信美联储将在本月底降息25个基点。利率下行将推升债券价格,从而带动美债ETF上涨。简单来说:降息 → 收益率下降 → 债券价格上涨 → 美债ETF走强。举例来说,如果十年期美债收益率从5%下降到4%,长期国债价格可能上涨 10% 以上。降息周期下的债市机会从历史经验来看,美债收益率的下行通常领先于降息政策的正式
【一起发财】美债上涨,虎友抄底TMF狂赚252%,你跟上了吗?
# 晒晒更赚钱
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西流:
一点没写怎么赚225%的啊!这才从最低点涨了30%了左右吧
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Minna123
·
10-14
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
# 晒晒更赚钱
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Minna123
·
10-06
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
# 晒晒更赚钱
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leadahead
·
10-06
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
太拉胯了,降息周期表现都这么差,真是耽误行情
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 太拉胯了,降息周期表现都这么差,真是耽误行情
# 晒晒更赚钱
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Minna123
·
09-30
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
# 晒晒更赚钱
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Minna123
·
09-23
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
# 晒晒更赚钱
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Minna123
·
09-15
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
# 晒晒更赚钱
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清青松
·
09-08
$TMF 20251121 36.0 CALL$
$TMF 20251121 36.0 CALL$
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2.10%
热议股票
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