四大催化剂加2.5万亿美元期权，本周“四巫日”太可怕_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

四大催化剂加2.5万亿美元期权，本周“四巫日”太可怕

金十数据2020-12-16

作者：肖燕燕下一个“四巫日”（期权到期日）即将在12月18日到来。每年12月到期的期权规模都很庞大，今年也不例外：名义价值达2.5万亿美元的SPX相关期权将在12月18日到期。这个规模很大，但对于12月而言，还不算极端。前雷曼兄弟（Lehman）外汇交易员、现任彭博市场（Bloomberg Markets Live）宏观策略师马克・库德摩尔（Mark Cudmore）撰文表示，12月迄今的市场平静...

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特斯拉熄火夫斯基
·2020-12-17
快点崩吧。不崩怎么上车
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- 特斯拉熄火夫斯基:
  我感觉崩不了 [得意]
  2020-12-17
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- iAm22:
  明晚就知道啦不过我仓位那么重不想崩啊[捂脸]
  2020-12-17
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navoyhot
·2020-12-17
空
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良奇锋
·2020-12-17
崩
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邦良
·2020-12-16
保持警惕。
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-16
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MyGate
·2020-12-16
特斯拉肯定崩盘。。。菲菜炒的太厉害了
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Modi
·2020-12-16
$特斯拉(TSLA)$據報導，「目前未平倉的期權合約中，特斯拉達到驚人的948億美元！」德銀最新報告認為：接下來美股的走勢，很大程度取決於「特斯拉神話」能否繼續。
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- 三眼怪:
  [暗中观察]
  2020-12-16
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- 谨谨慎慎回复Modi:
  [龇牙]
  2020-12-16
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- Modi:
  周五12/18，逼得大家看盤不睡覺，
  2020-12-16
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查看更多 1 条评论
某朱
·2020-12-16
从月初看崩到现在了这些巨头做空了吧
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某朱
·2020-12-16
这些巨头做空了吧
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-16
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Fred_6810
·2020-12-16
同意，不过，每次都一样
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进击华尔街
·2020-12-16
神特么崩盘。。。
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FOMO）而对冲，但现在已经转成为真正的“崩盘”（crash-down）而对冲。在本周的四巫日之前，并结合最近的隐含波动率压缩现象，McElligott发现SPX的波动性实现了下降，而且降幅很大：5日历史波动性为5.1，10日历史波动性为7.6，20日历史波动性为11。究其原因，有五个：1.    大选后混乱局面持续以及随之而来的对冲平仓；2.    市场提前炒作 “疫苗通货膨胀/经济正常化”；3.   “跛脚鸭时期”达成财政刺激协议的可能性上升；4.    第四季度存在“追逐风险”的季节性；5.    从长期增长型股票到周期价值股的轮换。所有这些都是抵消和抑制指数水平波动的因素。不过，McElligott指出，真正的大变化是客户的对冲焦点：过去几周，客户都是害怕错过上涨，但过去两天，随着本周的期权到期日来临，我们开始看到大家害怕崩盘。追踪衍生品的数据公司SpotGamma也发现，Gamma和Delta倾斜指标出现了非常剧烈的逆转，这表明期权结构有所恶化。Delta 和Gamma被用于估算标的资产价格变动导致期权价格变化的大小。换言之，期权支撑在崩溃。从下图可以看出12月18日到期的SPX期权规模有多大，对于个股而言，大约45%的股票都在12月18日集中了最大的伽马密度，大约25%集中了最大的delta密度。事情还没有那么简单，高盛指出，特斯拉被纳入标普500指数（12月21日生效）后，有可能导致该指数的波动性增加1/4个点。据报道，目前未平仓的期权合约中，特斯拉达到惊人的948亿美元！德银最新报告认为：接下来美股的走势，很大程度取决于“特斯拉神话”能否继续。当然，以上分析师或机构的结论并非意味着市场一定会遭到抛售，但表明市场会“更容易”被抛售。McElligott还指出，标普500指数若跌破3650，交易商其实会增加抛售。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":397913967,"gmtCreate":1608157004259,"gmtModify":1703851468332,"author":{"id":"3481326504156632","authorId":"3481326504156632","name":"特斯拉熄火夫斯基","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff09344a13a68a318de774bd0ea2c1ee","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a877921e5ed88700305c37737450d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"快点崩吧。不崩怎么上车","listText":"快点崩吧。不崩怎么上车","text":"快点崩吧。不崩怎么上车","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397913967","repostId":1147242959,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3198333,"gmtCreate":1608176817783,"gmtModify":1608176817783,"authorId":3481326504156632,"author":{"id":3481326504156632,"authorId":3481326504156632,"name":"特斯拉熄火夫斯基","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff09344a13a68a318de774bd0ea2c1ee","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.04","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":397913967,"type":1,"supId":3197662,"prevId":0,"content":"我感觉崩不了 [得意]","text":"我感觉崩不了 [得意]","html":"我感觉崩不了 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