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中国科技股涨势扩大
中国科技股涨势扩大，包括阿里巴巴、联想、B站等公司股价涨幅超过14%。多家公司发布了最新财报，带动了这轮集体上涨。投行开始重估中国科技股，展现出成长性。
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承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！
2025-02-24
3800亿！ “瘦身”后阿里出狠拳，重押云和AI基础设施
2025-02-24
港股异动 | 中兴通讯(00763)涨超5% 本周将发年度业绩 机构看好公司受益AI算力需求高增
2025-02-24
港股异动 | 联想控股(03396)涨超22% 旗下君联资本参与投资自变量机器人 联想优先受益AI PC创新
2025-02-24
大摩：“动物精神”回归中国股市，但目前仅限于科技行业
2025-02-24
摩根士丹利升阿里评级至增持，目标价上调至180美元
2025-02-24
【招商证券：予阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)“买入”评级 升目标价至165港元】招商证券发布研报称，给予阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)“买入”评级，目标价上调至165港元。该行称，公司正加强投资以捕捉AI激增的需求，凭借其全系AI产品，相信阿里巴巴仍是中国AI转型浪潮的主要受益者，可全力迎接新AI机遇，预测2025/26财年云收入将同比增长11%及21%，并将2025至2027财年集团总收入预测上调0%至2%，预测2025财年股东回报比率达约5%。
2025-02-24
AH股低开高走，沪指迅速翻红，阿里巴巴涨超1%
2025-02-24
阿里宣布未来三年投入3800亿元建设云和AI硬件基础设施，港股盘初涨近2%
2025-02-24
中金：再论中国资产的重估前景
2025-02-24
恒生科技单日上涨6%+后的表现规律：未来1-2周下跌概率更高，1个月维度表现无明显规律
2025-02-24
【特约大V】郭家耀：科技股业绩较预期理想 触发资金大量流入 支撑指数表现
2025-02-24
港股一线｜恒生指数创3年来新高，阿里三季度净利润暴增点燃科技股行情
2025-02-24
国泰君安：阿里资本开支上行 带动国产算力投资
2025-02-24
【华泰证券：中国资产重估行情或进一步扩散】华泰证券指出，上周A股震荡上行，阿里财报超预期带动下半周科技板块继续上行，中国资产重估行情或进一步扩散：第一，产业、地产、民企营商环境等积极因素继续涌现，阿里财报超预期有望推动AI主题投资向产业赛道投资过渡；第二，全球资金在中美权益资产之间再平衡，目前主动配置型外资对本轮行情参与程度仍不高，若后续长线外资回流，外资偏好的国内优势产业和高ROE资产或受益；第三，参考过往产业周期行情，产业逻辑强化或带来拥挤度中枢抬升，当前或可适当放宽对拥挤度的容忍度。配置上，电子、传媒等拥挤度较高，继续在科技内部高低切，关注医药、金融等受益于AI的低位板块。
2025-02-24
算力行业点评：阿里季报Capex超预期，未来将继续加大在AI战略中的投入，关注阿里算力链
2025-02-22
阿里港股单日狂飙14%，年内暴涨70%暗含何种新叙事？
2025-02-22
开盘｜美股涨跌不一，哔哩哔哩涨超5%，联合健康跌超11%
2025-02-21
开盘 | 美股涨跌不一，阿里巴巴涨4%，能链智电暴涨超56%
2025-02-21
创历史天量！港股阿里巴巴大涨近15%，成交额超440亿港元，知名机构纷纷上调其目标价
2025-02-21
涌入中概股！桥水等多家对冲基金增持阿里、百度
2025-02-21
资金动向 | 北水净买入港股140.35亿港元，抢筹阿里巴巴超62亿港元
2025-02-21
港股复盘：阿里的估值
2025-02-21
资本市场庆祝马云归来？阿里巴巴股价彻底挡不住了，单日大涨超过14%，2025年以来大超68%，马云和阿里巴巴重返舞台中央
2025-02-21
阿里巴巴“杀疯了”，成交额超440亿港元，股价大涨近15%！24只概念股涨停，名单一览
2025-02-21
阿里巴巴引爆中国股市！哪些ETF含“巴巴”量高?
2025-02-21
王炸！阿里云概念爆了
2025-02-21
热门中概股盘前普遍拉升 哔哩哔哩(BILI)涨逾6% 阿里巴巴(BABA)涨逾4%
2025-02-21
A股、港股，大爆发！阿里巴巴涨逾14%
2025-02-21
阿里大涨15%：核心业务恢复增长 吴泳铭称加大AI领域投入
2025-02-21
中概股美股盘前多数上涨 阿里巴巴涨超4%
2025-02-21
科创50创“924”行情新高 阿里财报带动科技资产重估 算力芯片充当急先锋
2025-02-21
中证科创创业50等权重指数报1042.03点，前十大权重包含润泽科技等
2025-02-21
美股盘前：3倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion涨超4%，阿里巴巴涨4.5%
2025-02-21
阿里巴巴盘前涨逾4%，财报利好昨日涨逾8%
2025-02-21
AH科技股爆发！科创50指数涨近6% 恒生科技指数创3年新高！阿里巴巴涨超14% 高盛上调股价！腾讯涨超6%
2025-02-21
继续飙涨！还在疯狂迭代
2025-02-21
阿里重大宣布 算力板块爆发！“AI+云”催生新增长极 阿里巴巴港股大涨近15%
2025-02-21
市场综述 | 恒指暴涨4%，阿里、B站绩后股价飙升；A股震荡走强，寒武纪20cm涨停
2025-02-21
港股收评：恒科指狂飙6.53%！科技股全线爆发，纸业股逆势下跌
2025-02-21
阿里业绩和AI支出承诺提振信心 港股主要指数齐升至约三年来高位
2025-02-21
港股收盘(02.21) | 恒指收涨近4%创三年新高 科技股行情火爆 阿里巴巴-W(09988)绩后飙升14%
2025-02-21
【量价齐升榜前十：中大力德连续5天放量上涨，累计涨幅51.13%】截至2月21日收盘，中大力德量价齐升，连续5天放量上涨，累计涨幅51.13%。其余量价齐升的上涨个股还包括：江苏雷利（放量上涨5天）、双飞集团（放量上涨5天）、隆扬电子（放量上涨5天）、国茂股份（放量上涨5天）、长鸿高科（放量上涨4天）、博迁新材（放量上涨4天）、华工科技（放量上涨3天）、阳光乳业（放量上涨3天）、联创电子（放量上涨3天）。
2025-02-21
大华股份收盘上涨2.67%，滚动市盈率7.97倍，总市值583.33亿元
2025-02-21
中银国际：上调阿里巴巴目标价至151美元 AI云成为焦点
2025-02-21
2月21日隆盛科技涨7.79%，嘉合睿金混合发起式A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日彩讯股份涨5.48%，交银科技创新灵活配置混合A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日润泽科技创60日新高，南方成长先锋混合A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日光环新网涨19.99%，宏利景气领航两年持有混合基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日中文在线涨9.31%，银华体育文化灵活配置混合A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日长亮科技涨5.40%，华夏磐益一年定开混合基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日国投智能涨5.16%，中邮专精特新一年持有混合A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日顺网科技涨5.89%，博时中证淘金大数据100A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日网宿科技涨16.33%，富国中证大数据产业ETF基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
中国资产大涨！A股、H股全面爆发，港股阿里巴巴涨近15%，创历史天量
2025-02-21
恒生指数收涨3.99%，阿里巴巴涨近15%
2025-02-21
2月21日天准科技涨13.57%，西部利得事件驱动股票基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日数据港连续2日创60日新高，天弘中证1000指数增强A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日淳中科技涨5.27%，博时天颐债券A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日超讯通信涨5.37%，汇安多策略混合A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日华勤技术创60日新高，信澳新能源产业股票基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
港股收评：恒指创3年新高，AI算力、硬件方向领涨
2025-02-21
2月21日东材科技涨8.48%，华夏卓信一年定开债券发起式基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日宝信软件涨10.01%，南方中证国新央企科技引领ETF基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日恒生电子涨6.24%，华宝中证金融科技主题ETF基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日国网信通涨5.99%，金鹰科技创新股票A基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
2月21日中国联通涨10.00%，博时央企创新驱动ETF基金重仓该股
2025-02-21
港股三大指数午后延续升势 恒指全日涨3.99% 中国联通涨15.72%
2025-02-21
知行汽车科技02月21日获主力加仓1108万元
2025-02-21
新意网集团02月21日获主力加仓2585万元
2025-02-21
恒生指数收盘大涨3.99%，恒生科技指数涨6.53%，阿里巴巴涨约15%
2025-02-21
电讯盈科02月21日获主力加仓3522万元
2025-02-21
联想控股02月21日获主力加仓1309万元
2025-02-21
美团-W02月21日主力大幅流入7.96亿元 散户资金抛售
2025-02-21
收盘｜港股收盘普涨，阿里巴巴-W涨超14%，腾讯控股涨超6%
2025-02-21
港股收评：恒生指数涨3.99%、恒生科技指数涨6.53% 阿里巴巴涨超14%，成交额超400亿港元创历史天量
2025-02-21
龙虎榜|华丰科技上涨20.00%，国泰君安证券上海海阳西路席位买入8819.25万元
2025-02-21
龙虎榜|翱捷科技-U上涨19.99%，中信证券总部(非营业场所)席位买入3873.57万元
2025-02-21
恒指收盘大涨近4%、恒生科技指数飙升超6% 阿里巴巴暴涨逾14%
2025-02-21
龙虎榜|峰岹科技上涨20.00%，席位买入元
2025-02-21
下场放贷，追觅科技葫芦里卖的什么药？
2025-02-21
跳空高开，市场重新关注阿里巴巴？
2025-02-21
中国电信02月21日大涨，股价创历史新高
2025-02-21
央视创新（399551）收盘上涨3.08%，近1个月上涨8.44%
2025-02-21
高盛：维持阿里巴巴-W(09988)“买入”评级 升目标价至156港元
2025-02-21
中国三三传媒盘中异动 股价大涨10.14%
2025-02-21
【高盛：维持联想集团(00992.HK)“买入”评级 升目标价至14.9港元】高盛发布研报称，维持联想集团(00992.HK)“买入”评级，目标价由13.28港元升至14.9港元。该行考虑到公司上季业绩，上调2025财年及2026财年纯利预测分别23%和4%，主要由于营收增加，反映看好联想2025财政年度人工智能个人电脑产能提升，以及人工智能服务器扩张，且对2027至2028财年预测基本不变。（智通财经）
2025-02-21
数字传媒（399434）收盘上涨2.63%，近1个月上涨20.74%
2025-02-21
阿里巴巴大涨近15%，成交近420亿，创历史天量
2025-02-21
中关村50（399423）收盘上涨4.53%，今年来累计上涨9.41%
2025-02-21
AI开路 重估阿里？
2025-02-21
异动解读 | 阿里巴巴超预期业绩及AI布局引领科技股狂潮 XL二南方恒科暴涨13%
2025-02-21
科技股涨疯了！恒生科指大涨6%，阿里巴巴单日成交超400亿港元，券商高喊中国版科技“七巨头”，南下资金疯狂买入港股
2025-02-21
高盛：维持联想集团(00992)“买入”评级 升目标价至14.9港元
2025-02-21
成分股寒武纪涨停20% A500指数ETF连续8日成交额均超20亿
2025-02-21
港股盘尾持续上攻 恒生科指涨近6%
2025-02-21
港股阿里巴巴成交额超400亿港元，创历史天量
2025-02-21
2月21日中国联通涨停分析：国资云，IPv6，云计算数据中心概念热股
2025-02-21
2月21日中坚科技涨停分析：机器人，外贸受益概念概念热股
2025-02-21
阿里巴巴，爆发了！
2025-02-21
突破多个阶段高位！科创50指数创2024年10月以来新高
2025-02-21
A股收评：科创50大涨近6%，成交额时隔两个月破2万亿，算力、液冷服务器领跑
2025-02-21
【收盘】A股放量上涨：科创50暴涨5.97%，两市成交21927亿元
2025-02-21
美银：上调联想集团目标价至11.9港元 重申“中性”评级
2025-02-21
容百科技02月21日主力净流入5824万元 散户资金抛售
2025-02-21
同方股份02月21日主力大幅流入4.87亿元 散户资金抛售
2025-02-21
中重科技02月21日遭主力抛售574万元
2025-02-21
东材科技02月21日获主力大幅加仓1.25亿元
2025-02-21
中国铝业02月21日主力净流入5261万元 散户资金抛售
2025-02-21
创耀科技02月21日获主力加仓1852万元
2025-02-21
莱尔科技02月21日遭主力抛售738万元
2025-02-21
澜起科技02月21日主力大幅流入2.62亿元 散户资金抛售
2025-02-21
长电科技02月21日主力大幅流入2.59亿元 散户资金抛售
2025-02-21
极米科技02月21日遭主力抛售2124万元
2025-02-21
联芸科技02月21日获主力加仓7759万元
2025-02-21
晶方科技02月21日主力大幅流入1.02亿元 散户资金抛售
2025-02-21
恒为科技02月21日主力净流入5550万元 散户资金抛售
2025-02-21
中信重工02月21日获主力加仓1353万元
2025-02-21
淳中科技02月21日主力净流入8024万元 散户资金抛售
2025-02-21
收盘｜科创50指数大涨近6% 算力、液冷服务器领涨
2025-02-21
【科创板收评】盘面放量拉升创阶段新高，算力芯片领涨，寒武纪封涨停
2025-02-21
2月21日A股分析：沪指涨0.85%报3379.11点，两市合计成交21926.07亿元，资金流入最多的行业板块为半导体
2025-02-21
中国银河证券：AI赋能加速市场聚势重构 新旧动能转换加速
2025-02-21
港股涨势如虹！恒生指数涨超3.6%，恒生科技指数涨超6%
2025-02-21
MSCI：科技和贸易将影响2025年股市格局
2025-02-21
华章科技盘中异动 快速下跌5.49%报0.241港元
2025-02-21
新确科技盘中异动 大幅拉升15.83%
2025-02-21
A股收评：三大指数放量大涨！沪指涨0.85%创指涨2.51%科创50涨6%，液冷、算力概念涨停潮！超2800股上涨，成交2.23万亿放量4396亿
2025-02-21
A股收评 | 两个月来首次！成交破两万亿 有何利好刺激？
2025-02-21
【AH互动】A股三大指数午后延续升势 沪指全日涨0.85% 液冷服务器、通信服务等板块概念涨幅居前
2025-02-21
又被段Sir赚了17亿
2025-02-21
港股数据中心板块持续上涨 新意网集团大涨22%
2025-02-21
【港股数据中心板块持续上涨，新意网集团大涨22%】港股数据中心板块持续上涨，新意网集团大涨22%，联想集团、中国通信服务涨超13%，万国数据、中国联通、中国电信均涨超10%。
2025-02-21
【创业板指涨2.5% 算力方向全线爆发 十余股20CM涨停】A股三大指数午后持续拉升，沪指涨0.9%，深证成指涨1.8%，创业板指涨2.6%。两市上涨个股超2600只。算力、数据中心方向全线爆发，寒武纪20CM涨停，股价逼近历史新高。华丰科技、申菱环境、润泽科技、朗威股份等十余股20CM涨停。
2025-02-21
梓坚
梓坚
·
2025-02-25
👍👍
承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！
大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。
承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！
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Saraat
Saraat
·
2025-02-25
反指啊，精确到令人发指，大摩反着买，别墅靠大海
承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！
大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。
承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
2025-02-24
前天还180，今天又200了？这些分析师是不是吸毒了？
承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！
大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。
承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！
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十余股20CM涨停】A股三大指数午后持续拉升，沪指涨0.9%，深证成指涨1.8%，创业板指涨2.6%。两市上涨个股超2600只。算力、数据中心方向全线爆发，寒武纪20CM涨停，股价逼近历史新高。华丰科技、申菱环境、润泽科技、朗威股份等十余股20CM涨停。","subtitle":"","subtitle_show":0,"pub_time":1740119151000,"source_id":"jinrongjie_stock","language":"zh","url":"https://24h.jrj.com.cn/2025/02/21142548300473.shtml","is_publish_highlight":0,"top_time":0,"symbols_score_info":{"159982":1,"300442":1,"301018":1,"301202":1,"399001":1,"399006":1,"399300":1,"688256":1,"688629":1},"rights":null}],"isFinancial":true,"allList":[{"id":407225564356920,"gmtCreate":1740439096224,"gmtModify":1740439097942,"author":{"id":"3581646737212013","authorId":"3581646737212013","name":"梓坚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc60101ae2a157654c11b14c2d659432","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581646737212013","idStr":"3581646737212013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407225564356920","repostId":"2513799382","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2513799382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1740385977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2513799382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-24 16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2513799382","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。</p></blockquote><p>云端起风了，大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞？</p><p>23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>Gary Yu团队发布研报，大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>评级至“超配”，目标价从100美元上调至200美元，乐观估值更是达到300美元。</p><p>大摩坦承，此前低估了人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增，以及阿里核心电商业务的韧性。<strong>大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。</strong>阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。</p><p>基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，大摩预计，<strong>在基础情景下，阿里的分拆估值（SOTP）为每股200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）,结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值为1400亿美元。</strong></p><p>值得注意的是，吴泳铭24日宣布，<strong>未来三年，阿里将投入超过3800亿元用于建设云和AI硬件基础设施。</strong>这也创下中国民营企业在云和AI硬件基础设施建设领域有史以来最大规模投资纪录。</p><h2 id=\"id_2212661539\">阿里云：三年收入翻倍，AGI目标引领增长</h2><p>大摩分析师承认此前低估了阿里巴巴,特别是在人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增和核心电商业务韧性方面。</p><p>大摩认为，作为中国最大的超大规模云服务商，阿里巴巴凭借其卓越的技术和备受好评的开源大语言模型（LLM）“通义千问”（Qwen），有望抓住AI云计算的巨大机遇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a755f5917e6c4a01fc8cc2123374c3a8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>基于以下几点，<strong>大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。</strong></p><blockquote><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>AI需求激增：</strong> DeepSeek模型发布后，阿里云需求显著增长，其中推理需求占增量需求的60-70%。AI相关产品收入已连续六个季度实现三位数增长。</p></li><li><p><strong>激进的资本支出：</strong> 阿里巴巴在最近的2025财年第三季度财报中，承诺将在未来三年加大资本支出，预计将超过过去十年的总和（约3000亿人民币）。</p></li><li><p><strong>竞争格局改善：</strong> 中国云行业竞争激烈，虽盈利能力低于美国，但GPU（而非CPU）基础设施的竞争格局有所改善，供应限制仅限于少数几家超大规模云服务商（阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、字节跳动）。</p></li></ol></blockquote><p>大摩预计，<strong>阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。</strong>虽然由于折旧增加，EBITA利润率在2026-2027财年将暂时下降至5-8%，但随着AI相关产品收入规模的扩大，预计将在2028财年恢复至8%，长期来看有望达到15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62def91765a217db3581175f34900f60\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3942481293\">估值重估：阿里云价值凸显，电商业务回暖</h2><p>基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，<strong>大摩基于DCF模型，将目标阿里股价从100美元上调至180美元，</strong>对应2027财年的预期市盈率（P/E）为16.6倍，高于当前2026财年的13.6倍市盈率。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>基础情境下的分拆估值为每股200美元</strong>，其中TTG（阿里核心业务，包括淘天集团、国际电商业务、本地生活服务和菜鸟）估值为每股90美元（对应10倍市盈率），<strong>云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）。</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>在乐观情景下，分拆估值为每股300美元，</strong>其中TTG估值为每股120美元（对应12倍市盈率），<strong>云业务估值为每股100美元（对应7倍EV/销售额）。</strong></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437fff7a69ecc992cac71930b8e6244\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"671\"/></p></blockquote><p>值得注意的是，在乐观情景下，阿里云的估值（100美元/股）已接近TTG的估值（120美元/股），凸显了其在阿里巴巴整体业务中的重要性。</p><p>大摩同时将中国互联网行业的评级上调至“有吸引力”。报告认为，随着市场关注点转向中国的技术突破，中国互联网公司为AI的推动者和采用者提供了绝佳的投资机会。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde6ce4bde769b70b3c1d0b163a9f238\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。云端起风了，大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞？23日，摩根士丹利Gary Yu团队发布研报，大幅上调阿里巴巴评级至“超配”，目标价从100美元上调至200美元，乐观估值更是达到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506b224c463bd8a5e3d5185361a6fd30","relate_stocks":{"LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0868486357.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities A (acc) SGD-H","SG9999000459.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity SGD","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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DRAGON PEACOCK A","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2513799382","content_text":"大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。云端起风了，大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞？23日，摩根士丹利Gary Yu团队发布研报，大幅上调阿里巴巴评级至“超配”，目标价从100美元上调至200美元，乐观估值更是达到300美元。大摩坦承，此前低估了人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增，以及阿里核心电商业务的韧性。大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，大摩预计，在基础情景下，阿里的分拆估值（SOTP）为每股200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）,结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值为1400亿美元。值得注意的是，吴泳铭24日宣布，未来三年，阿里将投入超过3800亿元用于建设云和AI硬件基础设施。这也创下中国民营企业在云和AI硬件基础设施建设领域有史以来最大规模投资纪录。阿里云：三年收入翻倍，AGI目标引领增长大摩分析师承认此前低估了阿里巴巴,特别是在人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增和核心电商业务韧性方面。大摩认为，作为中国最大的超大规模云服务商，阿里巴巴凭借其卓越的技术和备受好评的开源大语言模型（LLM）“通义千问”（Qwen），有望抓住AI云计算的巨大机遇。基于以下几点，大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。AI需求激增： DeepSeek模型发布后，阿里云需求显著增长，其中推理需求占增量需求的60-70%。AI相关产品收入已连续六个季度实现三位数增长。激进的资本支出： 阿里巴巴在最近的2025财年第三季度财报中，承诺将在未来三年加大资本支出，预计将超过过去十年的总和（约3000亿人民币）。竞争格局改善： 中国云行业竞争激烈，虽盈利能力低于美国，但GPU（而非CPU）基础设施的竞争格局有所改善，供应限制仅限于少数几家超大规模云服务商（阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动）。大摩预计，阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。虽然由于折旧增加，EBITA利润率在2026-2027财年将暂时下降至5-8%，但随着AI相关产品收入规模的扩大，预计将在2028财年恢复至8%，长期来看有望达到15%。估值重估：阿里云价值凸显，电商业务回暖基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，大摩基于DCF模型，将目标阿里股价从100美元上调至180美元，对应2027财年的预期市盈率（P/E）为16.6倍，高于当前2026财年的13.6倍市盈率。基础情境下的分拆估值为每股200美元，其中TTG（阿里核心业务，包括淘天集团、国际电商业务、本地生活服务和菜鸟）估值为每股90美元（对应10倍市盈率），云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）。在乐观情景下，分拆估值为每股300美元，其中TTG估值为每股120美元（对应12倍市盈率），云业务估值为每股100美元（对应7倍EV/销售额）。值得注意的是，在乐观情景下，阿里云的估值（100美元/股）已接近TTG的估值（120美元/股），凸显了其在阿里巴巴整体业务中的重要性。大摩同时将中国互联网行业的评级上调至“有吸引力”。报告认为，随着市场关注点转向中国的技术突破，中国互联网公司为AI的推动者和采用者提供了绝佳的投资机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1,"09988":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":407150731428272,"gmtCreate":1740420326886,"gmtModify":1740420329167,"author":{"id":"3494285125388429","authorId":"3494285125388429","name":"Saraat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fd697144f3aab0355b28cc6f7d75e8e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494285125388429","idStr":"3494285125388429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"反指啊，精确到令人发指，大摩反着买，别墅靠大海","listText":"反指啊，精确到令人发指，大摩反着买，别墅靠大海","text":"反指啊，精确到令人发指，大摩反着买，别墅靠大海","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407150731428272","repostId":"2513799382","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2513799382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1740385977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2513799382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-24 16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2513799382","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。</p></blockquote><p>云端起风了，大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞？</p><p>23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>Gary Yu团队发布研报，大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>评级至“超配”，目标价从100美元上调至200美元，乐观估值更是达到300美元。</p><p>大摩坦承，此前低估了人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增，以及阿里核心电商业务的韧性。<strong>大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。</strong>阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。</p><p>基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，大摩预计，<strong>在基础情景下，阿里的分拆估值（SOTP）为每股200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）,结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值为1400亿美元。</strong></p><p>值得注意的是，吴泳铭24日宣布，<strong>未来三年，阿里将投入超过3800亿元用于建设云和AI硬件基础设施。</strong>这也创下中国民营企业在云和AI硬件基础设施建设领域有史以来最大规模投资纪录。</p><h2 id=\"id_2212661539\">阿里云：三年收入翻倍，AGI目标引领增长</h2><p>大摩分析师承认此前低估了阿里巴巴,特别是在人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增和核心电商业务韧性方面。</p><p>大摩认为，作为中国最大的超大规模云服务商，阿里巴巴凭借其卓越的技术和备受好评的开源大语言模型（LLM）“通义千问”（Qwen），有望抓住AI云计算的巨大机遇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a755f5917e6c4a01fc8cc2123374c3a8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>基于以下几点，<strong>大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。</strong></p><blockquote><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>AI需求激增：</strong> DeepSeek模型发布后，阿里云需求显著增长，其中推理需求占增量需求的60-70%。AI相关产品收入已连续六个季度实现三位数增长。</p></li><li><p><strong>激进的资本支出：</strong> 阿里巴巴在最近的2025财年第三季度财报中，承诺将在未来三年加大资本支出，预计将超过过去十年的总和（约3000亿人民币）。</p></li><li><p><strong>竞争格局改善：</strong> 中国云行业竞争激烈，虽盈利能力低于美国，但GPU（而非CPU）基础设施的竞争格局有所改善，供应限制仅限于少数几家超大规模云服务商（阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、字节跳动）。</p></li></ol></blockquote><p>大摩预计，<strong>阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。</strong>虽然由于折旧增加，EBITA利润率在2026-2027财年将暂时下降至5-8%，但随着AI相关产品收入规模的扩大，预计将在2028财年恢复至8%，长期来看有望达到15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62def91765a217db3581175f34900f60\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3942481293\">估值重估：阿里云价值凸显，电商业务回暖</h2><p>基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，<strong>大摩基于DCF模型，将目标阿里股价从100美元上调至180美元，</strong>对应2027财年的预期市盈率（P/E）为16.6倍，高于当前2026财年的13.6倍市盈率。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>基础情境下的分拆估值为每股200美元</strong>，其中TTG（阿里核心业务，包括淘天集团、国际电商业务、本地生活服务和菜鸟）估值为每股90美元（对应10倍市盈率），<strong>云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）。</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>在乐观情景下，分拆估值为每股300美元，</strong>其中TTG估值为每股120美元（对应12倍市盈率），<strong>云业务估值为每股100美元（对应7倍EV/销售额）。</strong></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437fff7a69ecc992cac71930b8e6244\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"671\"/></p></blockquote><p>值得注意的是，在乐观情景下，阿里云的估值（100美元/股）已接近TTG的估值（120美元/股），凸显了其在阿里巴巴整体业务中的重要性。</p><p>大摩同时将中国互联网行业的评级上调至“有吸引力”。报告认为，随着市场关注点转向中国的技术突破，中国互联网公司为AI的推动者和采用者提供了绝佳的投资机会。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde6ce4bde769b70b3c1d0b163a9f238\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。云端起风了，大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞？23日，摩根士丹利Gary Yu团队发布研报，大幅上调阿里巴巴评级至“超配”，目标价从100美元上调至200美元，乐观估值更是达到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506b224c463bd8a5e3d5185361a6fd30","relate_stocks":{"LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0868486357.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities A (acc) SGD-H","SG9999000459.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity SGD","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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DRAGON PEACOCK A","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2513799382","content_text":"大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。云端起风了，大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞？23日，摩根士丹利Gary Yu团队发布研报，大幅上调阿里巴巴评级至“超配”，目标价从100美元上调至200美元，乐观估值更是达到300美元。大摩坦承，此前低估了人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增，以及阿里核心电商业务的韧性。大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，大摩预计，在基础情景下，阿里的分拆估值（SOTP）为每股200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）,结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值为1400亿美元。值得注意的是，吴泳铭24日宣布，未来三年，阿里将投入超过3800亿元用于建设云和AI硬件基础设施。这也创下中国民营企业在云和AI硬件基础设施建设领域有史以来最大规模投资纪录。阿里云：三年收入翻倍，AGI目标引领增长大摩分析师承认此前低估了阿里巴巴,特别是在人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增和核心电商业务韧性方面。大摩认为，作为中国最大的超大规模云服务商，阿里巴巴凭借其卓越的技术和备受好评的开源大语言模型（LLM）“通义千问”（Qwen），有望抓住AI云计算的巨大机遇。基于以下几点，大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。AI需求激增： DeepSeek模型发布后，阿里云需求显著增长，其中推理需求占增量需求的60-70%。AI相关产品收入已连续六个季度实现三位数增长。激进的资本支出： 阿里巴巴在最近的2025财年第三季度财报中，承诺将在未来三年加大资本支出，预计将超过过去十年的总和（约3000亿人民币）。竞争格局改善： 中国云行业竞争激烈，虽盈利能力低于美国，但GPU（而非CPU）基础设施的竞争格局有所改善，供应限制仅限于少数几家超大规模云服务商（阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动）。大摩预计，阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。虽然由于折旧增加，EBITA利润率在2026-2027财年将暂时下降至5-8%，但随着AI相关产品收入规模的扩大，预计将在2028财年恢复至8%，长期来看有望达到15%。估值重估：阿里云价值凸显，电商业务回暖基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，大摩基于DCF模型，将目标阿里股价从100美元上调至180美元，对应2027财年的预期市盈率（P/E）为16.6倍，高于当前2026财年的13.6倍市盈率。基础情境下的分拆估值为每股200美元，其中TTG（阿里核心业务，包括淘天集团、国际电商业务、本地生活服务和菜鸟）估值为每股90美元（对应10倍市盈率），云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）。在乐观情景下，分拆估值为每股300美元，其中TTG估值为每股120美元（对应12倍市盈率），云业务估值为每股100美元（对应7倍EV/销售额）。值得注意的是，在乐观情景下，阿里云的估值（100美元/股）已接近TTG的估值（120美元/股），凸显了其在阿里巴巴整体业务中的重要性。大摩同时将中国互联网行业的评级上调至“有吸引力”。报告认为，随着市场关注点转向中国的技术突破，中国互联网公司为AI的推动者和采用者提供了绝佳的投资机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1,"09988":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":407098669793864,"gmtCreate":1740407617205,"gmtModify":1740408028196,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"前天还180，今天又200了？这些分析师是不是吸毒了？","listText":"前天还180，今天又200了？这些分析师是不是吸毒了？","text":"前天还180，今天又200了？这些分析师是不是吸毒了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407098669793864","repostId":"2513799382","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2513799382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1740385977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2513799382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-24 16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2513799382","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。</p></blockquote><p>云端起风了，大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞？</p><p>23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>Gary Yu团队发布研报，大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>评级至“超配”，目标价从100美元上调至200美元，乐观估值更是达到300美元。</p><p>大摩坦承，此前低估了人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增，以及阿里核心电商业务的韧性。<strong>大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。</strong>阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。</p><p>基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，大摩预计，<strong>在基础情景下，阿里的分拆估值（SOTP）为每股200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）,结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值为1400亿美元。</strong></p><p>值得注意的是，吴泳铭24日宣布，<strong>未来三年，阿里将投入超过3800亿元用于建设云和AI硬件基础设施。</strong>这也创下中国民营企业在云和AI硬件基础设施建设领域有史以来最大规模投资纪录。</p><h2 id=\"id_2212661539\">阿里云：三年收入翻倍，AGI目标引领增长</h2><p>大摩分析师承认此前低估了阿里巴巴,特别是在人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增和核心电商业务韧性方面。</p><p>大摩认为，作为中国最大的超大规模云服务商，阿里巴巴凭借其卓越的技术和备受好评的开源大语言模型（LLM）“通义千问”（Qwen），有望抓住AI云计算的巨大机遇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a755f5917e6c4a01fc8cc2123374c3a8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>基于以下几点，<strong>大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。</strong></p><blockquote><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>AI需求激增：</strong> DeepSeek模型发布后，阿里云需求显著增长，其中推理需求占增量需求的60-70%。AI相关产品收入已连续六个季度实现三位数增长。</p></li><li><p><strong>激进的资本支出：</strong> 阿里巴巴在最近的2025财年第三季度财报中，承诺将在未来三年加大资本支出，预计将超过过去十年的总和（约3000亿人民币）。</p></li><li><p><strong>竞争格局改善：</strong> 中国云行业竞争激烈，虽盈利能力低于美国，但GPU（而非CPU）基础设施的竞争格局有所改善，供应限制仅限于少数几家超大规模云服务商（阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、字节跳动）。</p></li></ol></blockquote><p>大摩预计，<strong>阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。</strong>虽然由于折旧增加，EBITA利润率在2026-2027财年将暂时下降至5-8%，但随着AI相关产品收入规模的扩大，预计将在2028财年恢复至8%，长期来看有望达到15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62def91765a217db3581175f34900f60\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3942481293\">估值重估：阿里云价值凸显，电商业务回暖</h2><p>基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，<strong>大摩基于DCF模型，将目标阿里股价从100美元上调至180美元，</strong>对应2027财年的预期市盈率（P/E）为16.6倍，高于当前2026财年的13.6倍市盈率。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>基础情境下的分拆估值为每股200美元</strong>，其中TTG（阿里核心业务，包括淘天集团、国际电商业务、本地生活服务和菜鸟）估值为每股90美元（对应10倍市盈率），<strong>云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）。</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>在乐观情景下，分拆估值为每股300美元，</strong>其中TTG估值为每股120美元（对应12倍市盈率），<strong>云业务估值为每股100美元（对应7倍EV/销售额）。</strong></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437fff7a69ecc992cac71930b8e6244\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"671\"/></p></blockquote><p>值得注意的是，在乐观情景下，阿里云的估值（100美元/股）已接近TTG的估值（120美元/股），凸显了其在阿里巴巴整体业务中的重要性。</p><p>大摩同时将中国互联网行业的评级上调至“有吸引力”。报告认为，随着市场关注点转向中国的技术突破，中国互联网公司为AI的推动者和采用者提供了绝佳的投资机会。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde6ce4bde769b70b3c1d0b163a9f238\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n承认低估阿里，大摩：AGI目标下，阿里云收入三年将翻倍，估值能给1400亿美元！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-24 16:32 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。云端起风了，大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞？23日，摩根士丹利Gary Yu团队发布研报，大幅上调阿里巴巴评级至“超配”，目标价从100美元上调至200美元，乐观估值更是达到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506b224c463bd8a5e3d5185361a6fd30","relate_stocks":{"LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0868486357.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities A (acc) SGD-H","SG9999000459.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity SGD","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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DRAGON PEACOCK A","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2513799382","content_text":"大摩预计，阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下，将阿里目标价上调至200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。云端起风了，大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞？23日，摩根士丹利Gary Yu团队发布研报，大幅上调阿里巴巴评级至“超配”，目标价从100美元上调至200美元，乐观估值更是达到300美元。大摩坦承，此前低估了人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增，以及阿里核心电商业务的韧性。大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，大摩预计，在基础情景下，阿里的分拆估值（SOTP）为每股200美元，其中云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）,结合阿里已发行股票数量，阿里云市值为1400亿美元。值得注意的是，吴泳铭24日宣布，未来三年，阿里将投入超过3800亿元用于建设云和AI硬件基础设施。这也创下中国民营企业在云和AI硬件基础设施建设领域有史以来最大规模投资纪录。阿里云：三年收入翻倍，AGI目标引领增长大摩分析师承认此前低估了阿里巴巴,特别是在人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增和核心电商业务韧性方面。大摩认为，作为中国最大的超大规模云服务商，阿里巴巴凭借其卓越的技术和备受好评的开源大语言模型（LLM）“通义千问”（Qwen），有望抓住AI云计算的巨大机遇。基于以下几点，大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍，从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。AI需求激增： DeepSeek模型发布后，阿里云需求显著增长，其中推理需求占增量需求的60-70%。AI相关产品收入已连续六个季度实现三位数增长。激进的资本支出： 阿里巴巴在最近的2025财年第三季度财报中，承诺将在未来三年加大资本支出，预计将超过过去十年的总和（约3000亿人民币）。竞争格局改善： 中国云行业竞争激烈，虽盈利能力低于美国，但GPU（而非CPU）基础设施的竞争格局有所改善，供应限制仅限于少数几家超大规模云服务商（阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动）。大摩预计，阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。虽然由于折旧增加，EBITA利润率在2026-2027财年将暂时下降至5-8%，但随着AI相关产品收入规模的扩大，预计将在2028财年恢复至8%，长期来看有望达到15%。估值重估：阿里云价值凸显，电商业务回暖基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期，以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估，大摩基于DCF模型，将目标阿里股价从100美元上调至180美元，对应2027财年的预期市盈率（P/E）为16.6倍，高于当前2026财年的13.6倍市盈率。基础情境下的分拆估值为每股200美元，其中TTG（阿里核心业务，包括淘天集团、国际电商业务、本地生活服务和菜鸟）估值为每股90美元（对应10倍市盈率），云业务估值为每股60美元（对应5倍EV/销售额）。在乐观情景下，分拆估值为每股300美元，其中TTG估值为每股120美元（对应12倍市盈率），云业务估值为每股100美元（对应7倍EV/销售额）。值得注意的是，在乐观情景下，阿里云的估值（100美元/股）已接近TTG的估值（120美元/股），凸显了其在阿里巴巴整体业务中的重要性。大摩同时将中国互联网行业的评级上调至“有吸引力”。报告认为，随着市场关注点转向中国的技术突破，中国互联网公司为AI的推动者和采用者提供了绝佳的投资机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1,"09988":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474710425515662","authorId":"3474710425515662","name":"T000002183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bbff0e969ac17bdc7ef80da5d04d629","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3474710425515662","idStr":"3474710425515662"},"content":"汉字姓发的研报不用看，全是垃圾","text":"汉字姓发的研报不用看，全是垃圾","html":"汉字姓发的研报不用看，全是垃圾"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"essenList":[],"allBottom":false,"essenBottom":true}