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奥德赛海洋探索(OMEX)
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KairAlert
·
04-08
$奥德赛海洋探索(OMEX)$
今天这个很给力。好久没吃饭这么大的肉了。
$奥德赛海洋探索(OMEX)$ 今天这个很给力。好久没吃饭这么大的肉了。
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熊镇廷:
问题你卖了没?过山车啊
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科迪勒拉
·
02-22
飞行汽车JOBY与太空飞机SPCE:谁能顺利实现商业梦想?
我是旅行家,也是航海家;伴随着每天日出,在我的灵魂中都会出现一个新大陆。——纪伯伦 日前,有朋友问起我对太空旅游股SPCE、空中的士JOBY股的看法。 今天,我仅把自己的研判以“简明扼要”形式分享在老虎社区,因AI正在接管人类许多脑力工作,那些随手可得的分析内容真的没必要发布了。 所以,我就只讲关键几点: 一 她们是不是好公司? 给当前的SPCE下结论比较困难,它有可能破产,也有可能走出雷区一步步迈向繁荣。主要取决于它能否顺利兑现承诺--年底前启动德尔塔新飞船的商业化飞行。 不利因素是前些日子的融资都是“不友好”型的,利息高得吓人、还需要抵押。 大环境看起来光明闪耀,航天港建设市场在 2026 年至 2030 年期间将迎来指数级增长,市场规模将从 1820 亿美元扩大至 17.76 万亿,复合年增长率达到 214.3% 另外,蓝色起源已决定退岀亚轨道太空旅游业务,将重心转向登月计划。油管上的著名太空博主Scott Manley为此乐观地认为,它的未来客户群将不得不改签维珍“德尔塔” 至于Joby,我敢说它现在就是一家优质公司,拥有强大竞争优势,eVTOL行业前景广阔,这个判断基于我的deep dive,看了不知多少油管视频。 二 可以补仓或者介入吗? 从稳健角度看,当前最好远离SPCE,别提加仓。正确策略是耐心等待它的新飞船发射业务出现成功迹象,那时以高价买进也不算晚。 至于Joby,我此前从未发表过任何具体评论,主因是它一直很热门。而我不习惯于跟风,宁愿看别人热闹地走金光大道,也不愿去给做铺路材料。 看下数据,即使它顺利完成适航认证,按预期进行飞机商业化生产、2027年前每月产量只有4架,即使有丰田工程师团队协助。 这种eVTOL可不是波音的梦想客机,它的单机售价也就是百万美元级别,其出租车队即使顺利投入运营,服务收入也有一个爬坡阶段。 简单说,现在的股价已经把
飞行汽车JOBY与太空飞机SPCE:谁能顺利实现商业梦想?
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科迪勒拉
·
01-10
有望在2026年大放异彩的小型科技股(1)
用记忆拥抱过去,用希望拥抱未来。—纪伯伦 先带虎友们简单回顾下过去—— 在14个月前的小虎访谈中,我预判小市值科技股将走出谷底,出现群星闪耀局面。并建议追求稳健的投资人闭眼买进ARKK、XBI,截止当前,它们均已实现翻倍。 去年初选中的10大“小而美”也录得不俗表现:海底采矿TMC涨近10倍(按年内最高点计算,下同)储能股QS,EOSE,GWH,SLDP平均约3倍;机器人RR3倍,药物研发TSHA3倍,VALN2倍,PASG50%;毒蘑菇CYBN持平,表现最差是负碳材料ORGN,跌75%,未进名单的法国花生过敏研究公司DBVT10倍。 可以说,我对2025年的预期已基本实现。 展望2026,我认为当前局部的“非理性繁荣”景象值得警惕。理性投资人应聚焦那些不受大市影响,有催化剂期待,股价已低迷多年的中小市值生物科技公司,尤其是基因疗法、基因编辑行业中的后起之秀。 以下是我的2026黑马名单,先做说明: 1 今年的名单扩大到16只股票,并按风险指数(从高到低)分为两组,1组10只,2组6只。 2 名单所列股票或有动态调整,有重大事件发生或股价巨幅波动,我会及时提出操作意见。 3 本文仅简单列出个股的年内催化剂内容,其它分析文字会依具体情况择机发布。 4 小市值科技股面临巨大不确定性,且难以预测,本名单仅供虎友读者们参考。 (1)SGMO (0.4430/股)法布里项目获加速审批,合作协议签署;2项神经领域研究管线数据读出,潜在的收购。 (2)NTLA(10.38/股)转甲状腺素蛋白淀粉样变性3期临床暂停解除、血管性水肿药物3期数据公布。 (3)SANA(4.56/股)1型糖尿病临床试验开始,可能的大药企合作协议签订,或直接被收购。 (4)RCKT(3.73/股)达农病及心肌病试验取得进展,白血胞粘附缺陷症获批。 (5) CYBN(7.53/股)2期一般焦虑症数据公布,1个重度抑
有望在2026年大放异彩的小型科技股(1)
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YAN_:
科老师 sgmo最近起起伏伏几个点的,是有人在吸筹码吗。astellas过两天要在jpm演讲,会不会对sgmo利好
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科迪勒拉
·
01-02
自上而下,还是自下而上?——蒙蒂尔投资信条解读之7
昨日之花园,只活于昨日的记忆;而明日的种子,已在静默中握于你手 ——纪伯伦 朋友们新年快乐!本老哥2026首发小文仍是蒙蒂尔投资策略分享,还剩下最后一篇(投资信条终极—正直与诚信)留待春节前发布。 再过几天,我将为虎友们推出——“有望在2026年大放异彩的小型科技股”名单,欢迎阅读。 格雷厄姆认为宏观因素对于公司分析至关重要。然而,许多价值投资者却认为,宏观因素是无关紧要的。 蒙蒂尔:“我很自豪地说,我是格雷厄姆和多德的原教旨主义者。自上而下与自下而上的分析,在很大程度上是不可分割的——这很像价值与增长,二者并非相互排斥。 我的解读: 一、自上而下:始于宏观图景 自上而下的分析,遵循着 “宏观经济 → 行业/板块 → 具体公司” 的顺序。投资决策始于对经济形势、利率、通胀、政策等宏观“大图景”的判断。 这种策略通常更适合大型投资机构与对冲基金。其庞大的资金体量与定期的业绩考核,要求它们必须具备全球视野,进行跨行业、跨地域的资产配置。然而,“自上而下”并不意味着降低公司分析的重要性,只是决策的依据放在了不同位置而已。 二、自下而上:始于公司基本面 自下而上的路径则相反,其顺序是 具体公司 → 行业 → 宏观经济”。决策始于深入研究公司的财务报表、商业模式、管理层、竞争优势等个体基本面,宏观环境往往是次要或后续的考量项。 个人认为,普通中小投资者更应倾向于这条分析路径。尤其是在产业变革加速、投资者普遍追逐阿尔法收益的时代,像找矿一样,找出那些如10年前的英伟达,特斯拉式的矿脉,其重要性远超对下任联储主席人选的猜测。 这让我想起巴菲特的一句黄金告诫: “投资的关键是不要看行业对社会发展有多大影响,而是看公司与对手相比的可持续竞争优势”。他举过一个经典例子:上世纪初汽车业热潮席卷美国时,制造商比全国的公路还多,然而蜂拥而入的投资人大多血本无归,只有做空马鞭子业务的人赚了大钱。 历史
自上而下,还是自下而上?——蒙蒂尔投资信条解读之7
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YAN_:
科老师,sgmo有消息了嘛[微笑]
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科迪勒拉
·
2025-10-25
周末漫聊: 逆势而行与保持耐心(蒙蒂尔10大投资信条解读之2) 信条二:逆势而行。约翰邓普顿爵士观察到“除非你做一些与大多数人不同的事情,否则不可能产生卓越的表现”。 信条三:耐心,耐心是各个水平级的投资者应具备的必备素质,不管是等待甜心球出现的机会,还是应对过早投资的诅咒都需要耐心。 以下是我的解读,仅供读者参考: 一逆势而行 这一投资策略,与古老的东方智慧遥相呼应。《菜根谭》中“衰飒的景象在盛满之中,发生的机缄即在零落之内”的箴言,深刻揭示了事物发展的辩证规律。观察自然演变与市场轮回,不难发现“物极必反”的法则无处不在:巅峰时刻往往预示着转折,而低谷深处却孕育着新生。 纵观商业发展,无论是传统行业的领军者还是伟大的创新科技企业,其成长轨迹都印证着这一规律。它们往往起步于无人问津的角落,历经坎坷,饱受争议,凭借坚韧在长期积累中厚积薄发,最终成就非凡。 然而,市场中的多数参与者却倾向于追随时髦热点,在疯狂中盲目跟进,在低迷时仓促退出。这种从众心理恰恰为逆向投资者创造了“钻石坑“的机会。 从投资实践来看,这一策略旨在实现最优的长期回报,同时确保足够的安全边际。如何把握这样的机会?投资大师们早已给出总试不爽的解决方案。彼得·林奇:当市场遭遇暴风雪时,正是捡拾恐慌者丢弃的优质标的的最佳时机。
巴菲特
同样精辟地指出:“我们不是喜欢熊市,而是喜欢熊市带来的低价。” 二 保持耐心 然而,仅凭逆向投资的意识还不足以成功。“耐心”这一品质同样需要悉心培养。它不仅是投资者的心理修养,更是一种必要的投资方法。只有保持足够的耐心,才能等来有价值的投资机会并从容应对过早入场带来的套牢之考验。 需要强调的是,这种等待必须建立在对投资标的的科学评估之上,而非简单地“为反向而反向”地操作。如果缺乏严谨分
周末漫聊: 逆势而行与保持耐心(蒙蒂尔10大投资信条解读之2) 信条二:逆势而行。约翰邓普顿爵士观察到“除非你做一些与大多数人不同的事情,否则不可能产生卓...
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一雨成烟:
老哥能不能介绍一下SANA和SGMO的基本面
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科迪勒拉
·
2025-10-14
放长线钓大鱼(蒙蒂尔10大投资信条解读之1)
上士闻道,勤而行之。 近来,随着我持仓股票市值的大幅增长,和朋友们的话题讨论也跟着多了起来。其中一位问起有哪些简明扼要的原则必须遵守,我毫不犹豫地推荐了对我影响最深的蒙蒂尔10大投资信条。以下是我基于自己的思考和实践做出的解读,仅供虎友们参考: 信条一:价值,价值,价值。价值投资是我认为唯一安全的方法。通过将安全边际作为投资过程的核心,可以最大限度地降低为实现增长而承担的风险。 1 什么是价值投资 我观察到,许多人都存在这样的认知误区,即把买入稳健经营的传统行业股票称为价值投资,而把买入新兴产业股票视为成长股投资。 我从不认可这样的定义,觉得这种分类从字面上就不符合逻辑,试问传统行业难道不需要技术创新,而成长股票不具备内在价值?还是查理芒格说得好:“一切好的投资都可称之为价值投资”。 依我的理解,价值投资的核心就是“以合理的价格买入优质公司股权”,然后静待公司的价值增长带来“最高税后总回报”。 2 价值投资的行为模式 有比较才有鉴别,“非价值投资者”是哪些人?他们如何行动? 显而易见,就是那些“不看牌就打牌“”的参与者,他们总是关注着当前市价的变化,总惦记着自己的帐面盈亏;为赚快钱,总是身不由已地热衷于频繁交易。 而价值投资践行者并不是不关心“差价”,但此差价非彼差价,而是股票当前价格与企业内在价值的距离。就像攀山越岭,需要一步一个脚印,为了实现股票价值增长,他们自然而然地显示出耐心。 当然他们也不一定永久性地持有股票,而是建立投资组合,并根据基本面及宏观环境的变化而进行修剪。简单来说,就是放长线进行“贱卖贵卖”以博取更大的差价。 我想这才是价值投资与非价值投资的重要分水岭。 3 市场上的价值投资机会 说到投资机会,非价值投资者总说市场反映一切,决定一切,聪明人必须跟随。他们不相信市场上随时随地有“便宜货”。 其实,价值投资者并没有绝对反对“市场正确论”,正如
放长线钓大鱼(蒙蒂尔10大投资信条解读之1)
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一雨成烟:
最近还有没有什么有潜力的股票分享,固态电池我没拿住4块的时候买的10块卖了[流泪][流泪]
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科迪勒拉
·
2025-09-28
OMEX:动能仍在积累,以前的估值凸显保守
全球性的势头已经到来——奥德赛
$奥德赛海洋探索(OMEX)$
在世界上最先进的海底矿产区域之一的前沿运营。 自我的6月9日小文《风险收益比已显示出非对称性》发布以来,股价上涨120%,远期期权录得5倍利润。最近,美国稀土及关键矿产类股票出现调整,这促使我对OMEX的基本面再次审查。以下是三点关键更新,仅供虎友们参考: 一 政策东风已至,战略地位凸显 美国关键矿产战略正进入密集落地期。政府继向MP材料直接投资4亿美元后,近期对国内锂矿项目的参资入股再次印证这一趋势。在最新的视频宣传中,CEO直接表明:我们以后会看到许多这样机会,我们确信自己也做好了准备以得到类似机会。 更具信号意义的是,美国政府关键矿产顾问考察了库克群岛,并登上OMEX合作方OML的考察船。这种级别的互动表明,其深海采矿项目已进入国家战略视野,后续获得政府直接支持的可能性显著提升。 二 核心资产存在严重低估 经JORC标准独立评估,OMEX持有7%股权的OML项目净现值达47亿美元。而公司对持有14%股权的CIC项目估值极为保守,仅参照OML同等估值计入资产组合。CEO表示:CIC与OML矿区相邻、矿物成分相似,但CIC面积是OML的10倍。也就是说,仅OMEX所持的14%CIC股权,其潜在价值就可能被低估约50亿美元。 三磷酸盐项目即将迎来推进 墨西哥磷酸盐项目预计秋后将有实质性进展消息,其当地合作伙伴的政府顾问背景及在农业领域的重大影响力为项目获批提供了重要保障,进一步夯实公司的资产组合。 结论: OMEX正处在政策、资产价值重估、项目进展三重催化剂的交汇点。特别是CIC项目相对OML的10倍资源规模差距,意味着公司账面价值存在巨大重估空间。
OMEX:动能仍在积累,以前的估值凸显保守
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期权大作手:
这个潜力巨大。买了5000股拿着 [流泪]
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猴小绿
·
2025-08-27
$奥德赛海洋探索(OMEX)$
去海边!
$奥德赛海洋探索(OMEX)$ 去海边!
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科迪勒拉
·
2025-08-23
AREC:机遇与风险并存的稀土玩家
经过几天的深度调研,我认为美国资源公司
$American Resources Corporation(AREC)$
基本上符合我的选股要求。它即使不适合马上建仓,也值得加入你的观察表中。 自贸易战开打以来,AREC及其子公司ReElement Technologies正成为美国推动关键矿产供应链独立的焦点企业。以下是我的多角度简要分析。 一、政策东风:美国关键矿产独立战略 特朗普政府高度重视稀土和关键矿产的供应链安全,以减少对中国的依赖(中国主导全球90%的稀土分离产能)。近期政策力度加大: 资金支持:特朗普政府计划从《CHIPS法案》中调配20亿美元支持国内矿产项目,能源部另提供9.75亿美元用于矿物加工及回收。 国防合作:美国国防部与MP Materials等企业合作(如4亿美元注资),凸显国家层面保障矿产安全的决心。 AREC已转型为一家稀土上游供应商,其分公司ReElement(AREC占19%股权)是少数具备稀土精炼能力的美国公司,有望直接受益于这些政策。事实上, 不久前ReElement已经与美国进出口银行签下了1.5亿美元的融资支持意向书。 二、核心技术:配体辅助置换色谱(LAD)技术 ReElement的核心技术为源自普渡大学的配体辅助置换色谱法(Ligand-Assisted Displacement Chromatography),其优势突出: 高纯度与适应性:可处理稀土矿、煤尾矿、回收磁铁等多类原料,产出纯度超过99.5% 的稀土氧化物(如钕、镝、铽),满足军用和商用磁体要求。 环保与成本优势:相比传统溶剂萃取法,该技术减少废水排放和化学试剂使用,回收率达95%以上,且模块化设计易于扩产。公司声称其生产成本可与中国同行水平一较高低。 关键参数: 纯度:≥99.5%(稀土氧
AREC:机遇与风险并存的稀土玩家
精彩
小虎不下山:
观察一下,前景看好但风险也不少,谨慎吧
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9
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科迪勒拉
·
2025-08-08
OMEX:美国与库克群岛的协议不可低估
OMEX
$奥德赛海洋探索(OMEX)$
是美国与
库克
群岛矿产协议背后的务实行动者 。它的未来前景值得继续看好。 8月6日,美国与
库克
群岛签署海底矿产开发协议,聚焦
库克
专属经济区内120亿吨多金属结核资源(钴、镍、锰含量丰富)。协议虽未直接点名企业,但强调 “美国关联公司已处于勘探前沿” ——这正指向奥德赛海洋勘探(OMEX) 的实质性参与。通过子公司Ocean Minerals LLC和CIC Limited,OMEX实际主导
库克
群岛3个勘探许可中的2个,直接掌控资源开发进程。 以下是最新基本面动态: 一 技术先行:深海监测启动 协议落地前,OMEX已将两台深海监测着陆器(ABMLs) 布设于
库克
群岛5500米海域,实时采集沉积物扩散与生态数据,为全球最具潜力的深海采矿项目环评提供支撑。此举将协议中“科学主导”原则转化为可验证的行动,凸显OMEX的技术执行力。 二 资金加固:新融资缓解压力 公司近期通过股权发行及债务转换筹得500万美元,现金流可覆盖运营至2025年底。这笔资金为墨西哥磷酸盐项目投产及库克环评推进提供缓冲,短期财务压力显著降低。 三 政策红利:先发优势巩固 作为BOE
OMEX:美国与库克群岛的协议不可低估
精彩
财神爷最爱我:
老大 这几个项目进度如何呀 如果这么看至少还能翻倍
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公司概况
公司名称
奥德赛海洋探索
所属市场
NASDAQ
成立日期
- -
员工人数
- -
办公地址
- -
公司网址
http://www.odysseymarine.com
邮政编码
- -
联系电话
- -
联系传真
- -
公司概况
Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc.是世界领先的深海探险公司,致力于以对环境负责的方式发现、验证和开发高价值海底矿产资源。公司持有多元化的矿产项目组合,包括由其控股的项目以及作为少数股东和服务提供商参与的项目,并通过专有的全球远景评估计划持续识别潜在新资产以扩充项目储备。每个项目均沿着明确的发展路径推进,涵盖矿产资源验证与量化、环境影响评估所需的基础环境数据采集、影响研究与报告、开采系统设计与验证,以及商业方案的制定与确认。近三十年来,公司凭借由业内资深海洋勘探专家、科学家及环境专家组成的团队,在深海区域部署先进的海洋技术与工艺。
04-21
超过5%披露
Form SCHEDULE 13G/A - Statement of Beneficial Ownership by Certain Investors: [Amend]
Form SCHEDULE 13G/A - Statement of Beneficial Ownership by Certain Investors: [Amend]
04-14
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
04-14
企业合并公告
Form 425 - Prospectuses and communications, business combinations
Form 425 - Prospectuses and communications, business combinations
04-08
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
04-08
企业合并公告
Form 425 - Prospectuses and communications, business combinations
Form 425 - Prospectuses and communications, business combinations
03-31
年度报告
Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405]
Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405]
02-27
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
2025-11-12
季度报告
Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)]
Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)]
2025-10-21
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
2025-10-17
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
2025-10-16
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
2025-10-15
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
2025-10-14
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
2025-10-14
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
2025-10-14
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities
分时
5日
日
周
月
数据加载中...
最高
1.13
今开
1.08
量比
0.73
最低
1.07
昨收
1.07
换手率
3.22%
热议股票
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日前,有朋友问起我对太空旅游股SPCE、空中的士JOBY股的看法。 今天,我仅把自己的研判以“简明扼要”形式分享在老虎社区,因AI正在接管人类许多脑力工作,那些随手可得的分析内容真的没必要发布了。 所以,我就只讲关键几点: 一 她们是不是好公司? 给当前的SPCE下结论比较困难,它有可能破产,也有可能走出雷区一步步迈向繁荣。主要取决于它能否顺利兑现承诺--年底前启动德尔塔新飞船的商业化飞行。 不利因素是前些日子的融资都是“不友好”型的,利息高得吓人、还需要抵押。 大环境看起来光明闪耀,航天港建设市场在 2026 年至 2030 年期间将迎来指数级增长,市场规模将从 1820 亿美元扩大至 17.76 万亿,复合年增长率达到 214.3% 另外,蓝色起源已决定退岀亚轨道太空旅游业务,将重心转向登月计划。油管上的著名太空博主Scott Manley为此乐观地认为,它的未来客户群将不得不改签维珍“德尔塔” 至于Joby,我敢说它现在就是一家优质公司,拥有强大竞争优势,eVTOL行业前景广阔,这个判断基于我的deep dive,看了不知多少油管视频。 二 可以补仓或者介入吗? 从稳健角度看,当前最好远离SPCE,别提加仓。正确策略是耐心等待它的新飞船发射业务出现成功迹象,那时以高价买进也不算晚。 至于Joby,我此前从未发表过任何具体评论,主因是它一直很热门。而我不习惯于跟风,宁愿看别人热闹地走金光大道,也不愿去给做铺路材料。 看下数据,即使它顺利完成适航认证,按预期进行飞机商业化生产、2027年前每月产量只有4架,即使有丰田工程师团队协助。 这种eVTOL可不是波音的梦想客机,它的单机售价也就是百万美元级别,其出租车队即使顺利投入运营,服务收入也有一个爬坡阶段。 简单说,现在的股价已经把","plainDigest":"我是旅行家,也是航海家;伴随着每天日出,在我的灵魂中都会出现一个新大陆。——纪伯伦 日前,有朋友问起我对太空旅游股SPCE、空中的士JOBY股的看法。 今天,我仅把自己的研判以“简明扼要”形式分享在老虎社区,因AI正在接管人类许多脑力工作,那些随手可得的分析内容真的没必要发布了。 所以,我就只讲关键几点: 一 她们是不是好公司? 给当前的SPCE下结论比较困难,它有可能破产,也有可能走出雷区一步步迈向繁荣。主要取决于它能否顺利兑现承诺--年底前启动德尔塔新飞船的商业化飞行。 不利因素是前些日子的融资都是“不友好”型的,利息高得吓人、还需要抵押。 大环境看起来光明闪耀,航天港建设市场在 2026 年至 2030 年期间将迎来指数级增长,市场规模将从 1820 亿美元扩大至 17.76 万亿,复合年增长率达到 214.3% 另外,蓝色起源已决定退岀亚轨道太空旅游业务,将重心转向登月计划。油管上的著名太空博主Scott Manley为此乐观地认为,它的未来客户群将不得不改签维珍“德尔塔” 至于Joby,我敢说它现在就是一家优质公司,拥有强大竞争优势,eVTOL行业前景广阔,这个判断基于我的deep dive,看了不知多少油管视频。 二 可以补仓或者介入吗? 从稳健角度看,当前最好远离SPCE,别提加仓。正确策略是耐心等待它的新飞船发射业务出现成功迹象,那时以高价买进也不算晚。 至于Joby,我此前从未发表过任何具体评论,主因是它一直很热门。而我不习惯于跟风,宁愿看别人热闹地走金光大道,也不愿去给做铺路材料。 看下数据,即使它顺利完成适航认证,按预期进行飞机商业化生产、2027年前每月产量只有4架,即使有丰田工程师团队协助。 这种eVTOL可不是波音的梦想客机,它的单机售价也就是百万美元级别,其出租车队即使顺利投入运营,服务收入也有一个爬坡阶段。 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——纪伯伦 朋友们新年快乐!本老哥2026首发小文仍是蒙蒂尔投资策略分享,还剩下最后一篇(投资信条终极—正直与诚信)留待春节前发布。 再过几天,我将为虎友们推出——“有望在2026年大放异彩的小型科技股”名单,欢迎阅读。 格雷厄姆认为宏观因素对于公司分析至关重要。然而,许多价值投资者却认为,宏观因素是无关紧要的。 蒙蒂尔:“我很自豪地说,我是格雷厄姆和多德的原教旨主义者。自上而下与自下而上的分析,在很大程度上是不可分割的——这很像价值与增长,二者并非相互排斥。 我的解读: 一、自上而下:始于宏观图景 自上而下的分析,遵循着 “宏观经济 → 行业/板块 → 具体公司” 的顺序。投资决策始于对经济形势、利率、通胀、政策等宏观“大图景”的判断。 这种策略通常更适合大型投资机构与对冲基金。其庞大的资金体量与定期的业绩考核,要求它们必须具备全球视野,进行跨行业、跨地域的资产配置。然而,“自上而下”并不意味着降低公司分析的重要性,只是决策的依据放在了不同位置而已。 二、自下而上:始于公司基本面 自下而上的路径则相反,其顺序是 具体公司 → 行业 → 宏观经济”。决策始于深入研究公司的财务报表、商业模式、管理层、竞争优势等个体基本面,宏观环境往往是次要或后续的考量项。 个人认为,普通中小投资者更应倾向于这条分析路径。尤其是在产业变革加速、投资者普遍追逐阿尔法收益的时代,像找矿一样,找出那些如10年前的英伟达,特斯拉式的矿脉,其重要性远超对下任联储主席人选的猜测。 这让我想起巴菲特的一句黄金告诫: “投资的关键是不要看行业对社会发展有多大影响,而是看公司与对手相比的可持续竞争优势”。他举过一个经典例子:上世纪初汽车业热潮席卷美国时,制造商比全国的公路还多,然而蜂拥而入的投资人大多血本无归,只有做空马鞭子业务的人赚了大钱。 历史","plainDigest":"昨日之花园,只活于昨日的记忆;而明日的种子,已在静默中握于你手 ——纪伯伦 朋友们新年快乐!本老哥2026首发小文仍是蒙蒂尔投资策略分享,还剩下最后一篇(投资信条终极—正直与诚信)留待春节前发布。 再过几天,我将为虎友们推出——“有望在2026年大放异彩的小型科技股”名单,欢迎阅读。 格雷厄姆认为宏观因素对于公司分析至关重要。然而,许多价值投资者却认为,宏观因素是无关紧要的。 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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OMEX\">$奥德赛海洋探索(OMEX)$</a> 在世界上最先进的海底矿产区域之一的前沿运营。 自我的6月9日小文《风险收益比已显示出非对称性》发布以来,股价上涨120%,远期期权录得5倍利润。最近,美国稀土及关键矿产类股票出现调整,这促使我对OMEX的基本面再次审查。以下是三点关键更新,仅供虎友们参考: 一 政策东风已至,战略地位凸显 美国关键矿产战略正进入密集落地期。政府继向MP材料直接投资4亿美元后,近期对国内锂矿项目的参资入股再次印证这一趋势。在最新的视频宣传中,CEO直接表明:我们以后会看到许多这样机会,我们确信自己也做好了准备以得到类似机会。 更具信号意义的是,美国政府关键矿产顾问考察了库克群岛,并登上OMEX合作方OML的考察船。这种级别的互动表明,其深海采矿项目已进入国家战略视野,后续获得政府直接支持的可能性显著提升。 二 核心资产存在严重低估 经JORC标准独立评估,OMEX持有7%股权的OML项目净现值达47亿美元。而公司对持有14%股权的CIC项目估值极为保守,仅参照OML同等估值计入资产组合。CEO表示:CIC与OML矿区相邻、矿物成分相似,但CIC面积是OML的10倍。也就是说,仅OMEX所持的14%CIC股权,其潜在价值就可能被低估约50亿美元。 三磷酸盐项目即将迎来推进 墨西哥磷酸盐项目预计秋后将有实质性进展消息,其当地合作伙伴的政府顾问背景及在农业领域的重大影响力为项目获批提供了重要保障,进一步夯实公司的资产组合。 结论: OMEX正处在政策、资产价值重估、项目进展三重催化剂的交汇点。特别是CIC项目相对OML的10倍资源规模差距,意味着公司账面价值存在巨大重估空间。","plainDigest":"全球性的势头已经到来——奥德赛 $奥德赛海洋探索(OMEX)$ 在世界上最先进的海底矿产区域之一的前沿运营。 自我的6月9日小文《风险收益比已显示出非对称性》发布以来,股价上涨120%,远期期权录得5倍利润。最近,美国稀土及关键矿产类股票出现调整,这促使我对OMEX的基本面再次审查。以下是三点关键更新,仅供虎友们参考: 一 政策东风已至,战略地位凸显 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