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美国超微公司(AMD)
盘后
214.81
-0.18
-0.08%
19:59 EST
214.99
-0.05
-0.02%
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可乐虎
·
12-26 20:08
25.12.26美股盘前：大盘今晚安全，BTC近期3个交易日都站稳9.17万就确认反弹
1、大盘今晚安全。
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
2、BTC也不用担心，只要近期3个交易日都站稳9.17万就确认反弹（BMNR） 3、预计近期将由7姐妹主导市场。 4、TSLA近期突破、AMZN本周站稳232以上就好、META突破675看到700 5、今晚盘中再做个股解读（实盘）。
25.12.26美股盘前：大盘今晚安全，BTC近期3个交易日都站稳9.17万就确认反弹
# 美股再创新高！年末看好哪些机会？
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NoraPoe:
大盘稳了，BTC反弹在即，期待个股解读！
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等也是一种策略 如何等在哪里等
·
08:06
🔥🎯 推理时代正式开打：为什么这一次，$AMD 正在逼近 $NVDA 的护城河 $NVDA 与 Groq 达成合作，释放出的信号其实很明确： AI 的主战场，正在从“训练”转向“推理”。 而一旦进入推理阶段，游戏规则就变了。 第一层变化：推理不再拼“最强算力”，而是拼“单位成本效率” 训练阶段，算力密度和生态占据绝对优势。 但推理阶段，企业真正关心的是： • 同样的响应速度 • 更低的能耗 • 更少的服务器 • 更低的总体拥有成本 这正是 $AMD 开始显露结构性优势的地方。 第二层关键变量：内存，正在成为推理的核心瓶颈 推理并不是“多快算完一次”，而是“能否把整个模型装得下、跑得稳、延迟低”。 即将推出的 $AMD MI450，配备 432GB HBM4， 而 $NVDA Rubin 的配置为 288GB。 这不是小差距，而是直接影响架构设计的差距。 当模型可以装在更少的芯片上： • 芯片间互连需求下降 • 通信延迟显著降低 • 集群复杂度与成本同步下滑 这正是大规模推理部署最在意的指标。 第三层，来自一线用户的真实反馈 Higgsfield CEO 的表态很直白： 在推理任务中，$AMD GPU 的成本效益比 $NVDA 高出约 40%。 这类声音的价值在于： 它不是理论推演，而是已经在跑真实工作负载的结论。 第四层趋势判断：份额变化，往往发生在“切换阶段” 历史上，真正的市场份额转移，几乎都发生在技术范式变化时，而不是技术成熟期。 当 AI 工作负载的重心从训练 → 推理： • 成本模型重算 • 架构偏好重置 • 供应商选择重新洗牌 这正是 $AMD 最有可能“慢慢拿走份额”的阶段，而不是一夜颠覆。 市场真正该问的，可能不是： “$NVDA 会不会输？” 而是： 在推理成为主流后，$AMD 的估值，是否已经反映它正在打开的这条通道？ 📣我会持续分享我关注的10倍成长股
🔥🎯 推理时代正式开打：为什么这一次，$AMD 正在逼近 $NVDA 的护城河 $NVDA 与 Groq 达成合作，释放出的信号其实很明确： AI 的主战...
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可乐虎
·
12-27 02:32
TSLA只是测试一下475而已， 不用怕还能冲
TSLA只是测试一下475而已， 不用怕，还能冲。 仅个人观点分享。
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
TSLA只是测试一下475而已， 不用怕，还能冲。 仅个人观点分享
TSLA只是测试一下475而已， 不用怕还能冲
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梦醒时分67
·
12-24
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
感觉这票被压着，一但时机成熟，会再次爆发！期待中[捂脸] [捂脸]
$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 感觉这票被压着，一但时机成熟，会再次爆发！期待中[捂脸] [捂脸]
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可乐虎
·
12-27 01:52
25.12.26美股实盘
大盘股在撑住大盘，但是中小盘股也很有韧性，IWM一直在守251。SPX 今晚收盘估计还往上可以冲一点点。周末研究一下后续具体走势，花街不会给它那么轻易就掉下去的，不然这一路那么费劲地拉升上来干啥。
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
大家问的比较多的太空双子：RKLB刚刚回补了下方缺口，前两天我说可以止盈一部分的时候卖挺合适，来不及卖的现在先持股不动看下周一的情况（下一档支撑61.6）。ASTS差不多 近期TSLA的收盘价不跌破475就不用慌。AMZN是232，两支股资金都不弱的，不要怕。 NVDA：还不错，还有机会冲200. AVGO 和AMD弱一点，它会跟随NVDA的 IREN：底部了，目前还在测试41，站稳42下一档压力50. NBIS：站稳92.4就是反转了，资金在积极做多，CRWV也还好，大家不要信那些AI泡沫论，资本家说AI有用，它就有用，很简单的道理。只要还搞大模型，算力股就不会崩。 甲骨文、OSCR感觉也在酝酿一波上攻。
25.12.26美股实盘
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等也是一种策略 如何等在哪里等
·
12-26 16:37
Reddit 美股热度排行海报（2025年12月26日） 对标东方财富股吧的散户风向标，以下是今日Reddit（主要是WallStreetBets等社区）最热提及的美股排行榜。经典大盘ETF和AI芯片继续霸榜，但太空相关股票（如ASTS和RKLB）异军突起，散户情绪火热！ 12 “LARGE” 2 “LARGE” 8 “LARGE” 9 “LARGE” Top 20 热度排行（提及次数） 1 $SPY (SPDR 标普500 ETF) – 112次 2 $NVDA (英伟达) – 107次 3 $ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) – 78次 🔥（太空通信黑马） 4 $RKLB (Rocket Lab) – 68次 🚀 5 $MU (美光科技) – 67次 6 $DTE (DTE Energy) – 64次 7 $SLV (贝莱德白银ETF) – 49次 8 $VOO (Vanguard 标普500 ETF) – 43次 9 $QQQ (Invesco 纳指ETF) – 41次 10 $AMZN (亚马逊) – 36次 11 $MSTR (微策略) – 35次 12 $NBIS (Nebius Group) – 35次 13 $RDDT (Reddit) – 33次 😎 14 $TSLA (特斯拉) – 30次 15 $PLTR (Palantir) – 28次 16 $AMD (AMD) – 27次 17 $HOOD (Robinhood) – 26次 18 $NFLX (奈飞) – 23次 19 $HIMS (Hims & Hers Health) – 22次 20 $SOFI (SoFi) – 20次 散户注意力仍集中在科技、大盘和新兴主题（如太空、白银），节日后市场情绪如何？继续观察！
Reddit 美股热度排行海报（2025年12月26日） 对标东方财富股吧的散户风向标，以下是今日Reddit（主要是WallStreetBets等社区）...
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省心省力
·
12-23
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
这笔
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
的交易协议看起来要推动股价飞升到250刀
$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 这笔$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 的交易协议看起来要推动股价飞升到250刀
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笃行吾道
·
12-24
现在这
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
的保证金规模简直离谱，华尔街难得一见的大概率机会！短期可能有惊喜！
现在这$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 的保证金规模简直离谱，华尔街难得一见的大概率机会！短期可能有惊喜！
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期权小班长
·
12-22
卖方的圣诞行情
$英伟达(NVDA)$
预计本周在170～185区间震荡，利好消息突破180后，185依旧很难突破，可以考虑sell call
$NVDA 20251226 187.5 CALL$
；预计可能还有回调到175，可以考虑回调的时候sell put170
$NVDA 20251226 170.0 PUT$
。目前市面上有种说法当前英伟达价格很便宜，便宜是便宜，但这个看跌开仓总有一种回调160贼心不死的感觉，仍然在震荡洗盘。
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉这个走法，考虑马斯克对于过节有些特殊爱好，我比较怀疑会在24号或者26号冲500再回调，考虑开仓24号概率更大，所以24号冲500后可以考虑sell call520。目前可以趁回调做个价外sell put
$TSLA 20251226 460.0 PUT$
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
本周振幅相当窄，在680～695间震荡，当周会有一些极端对冲，不过这么喜庆的日子没啥事空头也不会特意进行为难，大家都放假去了。
$美光科技(MU)$
本周
卖方的圣诞行情
# 期权Q&A：期权知识，你问我答
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GregoryRichardson:
NVDA的sell call策略不错，但小心185阻力位！
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勇敢_小虎
·
12-22
如果必须选那我选择：
$英伟达(NVDA)$
、
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
、
$谷歌(GOOG)$
、
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
,这个是人工智能的扛把子
如果必须选那我选择：$英伟达(NVDA)$、$美国超微公司(AMD)$、$谷歌(GOOG)$、$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PL...
# 美股再创新高！年末看好哪些机会？
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fishhhh:
选的都是AI尖子生啊，稳了！
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随行随大
·
12-23
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
等
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
那笔交易尘埃落定，260刀的地平线就在眼前晃悠了
$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 等$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 那笔交易尘埃落定，260刀的地平线就在眼前晃悠了
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巨大且稳健的收益
·
12-22
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
一个个的都是骗
$美国超微公司(AMD)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ 一个个的都是骗
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慕辰2050
·
12-23
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
最新指引刻意漏掉中国区收入，要是能实锤拿下
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
的订单，分析师们怕是要连夜改报告往上调预期。
$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 最新指引刻意漏掉中国区收入，要是能实锤拿下$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 的订单，分析师们怕是要连夜改报告往上调预期。
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不焦虑的小亨
·
12-22
$甲骨文(ORCL)$
圣诞行情蓄势待发，
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
多头们准备好收礼物吧
$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 圣诞行情蓄势待发，$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 多头们准备好收礼物吧
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随行随大
·
12-22
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
这家AI巨头刚刚发布了长期发展蓝图，人工智能的增长潜力看起来相当吸引人
$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 这家AI巨头刚刚发布了长期发展蓝图，人工智能的增长潜力看起来相当吸引人
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省心省力
·
12-22
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
期待价格回升到250区间，静候市场给出惊喜
$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 期待价格回升到250区间，静候市场给出惊喜
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卖方笔记
·
12-24
12/24热门科技股期权：特斯拉能否站稳500美元？英伟达175、美光265支撑迎来考验
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
重要新闻：分析师Canaccord Genuity将Tesla目标价上调至$551（原$482），FactSet调查显示平均评级为“持有”，平均目标价$421.59。自11月低点以来，股价累计上涨28%，受CEO薪酬计划恢复和无人驾驶技术进展推动。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（IV）极高，表明市场预期股价将剧烈震荡。情绪偏向看涨，但机构已在关键价位布局对冲。本周（12/26）：预计在 $475-$500 之间巨幅波动。下周（1/2）：波动范围可能扩大至 $470-$510。核心支撑位：$480-$485。$480是近期技术支撑，$485是看跌期权（PUT）的巨量持仓区，构成关键防线。核心阻力位：$500。这是重要的心理和历史高点，且有机构大单卖出看涨期权（CALL），形成强阻力。期权策略参考：采用Sell Put策略（Delta<0.25），行权价远低于当前价，胜率高：卖出看跌期权
$TSLA 20260102 440.00 PUT$
理由：时间溢价更高，行权价远离当前价，适合风险偏好较低者。止损：股价跌破$470（支撑位）时平仓。
$英伟达(NVDA)$
重要新闻：英伟达宣布计划于2026年2月中旬向中国市场交付H200系列GPU。预计2026年GB300 AI服务器机柜出货量将增长129%至5.5万台，市场看好AI需求。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（IV）处于历史低位，市场预期短期波动温和。但看涨期权交易非常活跃，情绪强烈看涨。本周（12/26）：预计在 175-
12/24热门科技股期权：特斯拉能否站稳500美元？英伟达175、美光265支撑迎来考验
# 期权Q&A：期权知识，你问我答
精彩
BarbaraWillard:
英伟达支撑稳，Sell Put策略靠谱！
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价值大作手
·
12-22
瑞穗证券将
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
的目标价定为227美元
瑞穗证券将$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 的目标价定为227美元
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三市波段笔记
·
12-20
本周所有的郁闷都是为了今晚！
$2倍做多AMD ETF-GraniteShares(AMDL)$
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
$2倍做多GOOGL-Direxion(GGLL)$
$二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$
$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$
本周所有的郁闷都是为了今晚！ $2倍做多AMD ETF-GraniteShares(AMDL)$ $美国超微公司(AMD)$ $2倍做多GOOGL-Dir...
# 2025投资主线：AI+贵金属！你都抓住了吗？
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YumZoay:
今晚必爆拉！AMD带兄弟们吃肉！
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AaronHy
·
12-19
现在所有科技股都在压力位边
$英伟达(NVDA)$
170
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
200
$高通(QCOM)$
320
$苹果(AAPL)$
270
$英特尔(INTC)$
36，大家都在悬崖边，我认为还有10个点左右的回调空间，美股才在健康状态。2025决战就在这几天。
就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？
本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。
就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？
现在所有科技股都在压力位边$英伟达(NVDA)$ 170$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 200$高通(QCOM)$ 320$苹果(AAPL)$ 270 $英特...
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兔司机不开车:
感觉盘前都在往上慢慢挪，希望可以过个好点的圣诞节
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- -
公司概况
超威半导体公司成立于1969年5月1日。公司是全球半导体厂商，工厂遍布世界各地。在全球半导体行业中，公司主要提供：x86微处理器，用于商业和消费市场；嵌入式微处理器，用于商业和消费者市场；台式和笔记本电脑芯片组；专业工作站和服务器；台式和笔记本电脑的视频图形和多媒体产品，包括国内媒体电脑、专业游戏工作站和服务器及相关技术。
12-15
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
12-11
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC总裁 Lisa Su拟减持125,000股，总价约2767万美元
Form 144 | ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC总裁 Lisa Su拟减持125,000股，总价约2767万美元
12-04
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | AMD高管Paul Darren Grasby拟减持10000股，总价约218.78万美元
Form 144 | AMD高管Paul Darren Grasby拟减持10000股，总价约218.78万美元
11-24
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | AMD高管 Jean Hu 拟减持14506股，总价约304.6万美元
Form 144 | AMD高管 Jean Hu 拟减持14506股，总价约304.6万美元
11-19
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | AMD高管 Forrest Norrod 拟减持19450股，总价约446万美元
Form 144 | AMD高管 Forrest Norrod 拟减持19450股，总价约446万美元
11-14
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | AMD高管 Mark Papermaster 拟减持17108股，总价约410万美元
Form 144 | AMD高管 Mark Papermaster 拟减持17108股，总价约410万美元
11-05
季度报告
Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)]
Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)]
11-05
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
10-27
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
10-15
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | 超威半导体公司高管 Mark Papermaster 拟减持16800股，总价约376万美元
Form 144 | 超威半导体公司高管 Mark Papermaster 拟减持16800股，总价约376万美元
10-06
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | AMD高管 Ava Hahn拟减持2868股，总价约65万美元
Form 144 | AMD高管 Ava Hahn拟减持2868股，总价约65万美元
10-06
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
09-24
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | AMD高管Forrest E Norrod拟减持2250股，总价约37万美元
Form 144 | AMD高管Forrest E Norrod拟减持2250股，总价约37万美元
09-15
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | AMD高管Mark Papermaster拟减持1.68万股，总价约267.5万美元
Form 144 | AMD高管Mark Papermaster拟减持1.68万股，总价约267.5万美元
09-10
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | AMD高管Forrest E Norrod拟减持17200股，总价约276.8万美元
Form 144 | AMD高管Forrest E Norrod拟减持17200股，总价约276.8万美元
分时
5日
日
周
月
数据加载中...
最高
216.83
今开
215.43
量比
0.56
最低
213.03
昨收
215.04
换手率
0.98%
热议股票
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">交投</a>于6770点附近。创纪录的期权到期，可能成为年底行情中的一个关键变量，为市场增添了显著的不确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_3508771893\">史上最大规模的到期事件</h2><p>此次期权到期之所以备受关注，核心在于其前所未有的规模。根据高盛分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMSB\">John Marshall</a>的估算，超过7.1万亿美元的名义风险敞口将在今天集中到期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12258f389f33008bc3ba75500181a02b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p><strong>这一天在华尔街被称为“四巫日”（quadruple witching），每年仅发生四次，分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。</strong></p><p>在这一天，四类衍生品合约同时结算，迫使交易员和做市商进行大量的平仓、展期或对冲操作，从而导致交易活动异常活跃。高盛的数据显示，仅与标普500指数相关的零日到期期权（0DTE）的交易量就已达到历史高位，占期权总交易量的62%以上，这进一步加剧了当日的复杂性。</p><h2 id=\"id_1711239824\">波动性加剧还是“钉住”效应？</h2><p>如此巨量的期权到期，可能给市场带来两种截然不同的影响。</p><p>一方面是可能加剧市场波动。KKM Financial的创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Kilburg表示：“我预计交易量将远超正常水平，因为期权交易员们需要了结2025年的盈亏。”他特别指出，标普500指数的6800点是一个重要的行权价位，市场将观察多头能否在该水平附近成功防守。</p><p>另一方面，巨量期权也可能产生“钉住”（pin）效应，反而抑制价格波动。高盛在其报告中解释，如果大量期权合约的行权价恰好等于或非常接近标的资产的当前市价（即“平价期权”），做市商为了对冲自身风险敞口而进行的操作，可能会将股价“拉”向这个被大量交易的行权价，导致股价在收盘时稳定在该水平附近。</p><p>高盛发现，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WGS\">GeneDx Holdings</a>、BILL Holdings、Avis Budget Group和GameStop在内的个股，其即将到期的期权占其日均交易量的比例很高，因此可能更容易出现“钉住”现象。</p><h2 id=\"id_2740955182\">关键技术位与市场情绪</h2><p>从技术层面看，市场正处在一个微妙的平衡点。根据期权分析机构SpotGamma的报告，标普500指数目前处于从6700点到6900点的“负伽马”（negative gamma）区间，这意味着市场本身倾向于放大波动，即上涨时加速上涨，下跌时加速下跌。</p><p>SpotGamma将6800点视为关键的“风险枢轴”（Risk Pivot）。报告指出，如果指数能够收复并站稳在6800点之上，可能被视为开启“圣诞老人行情”的信号。然而，如果指数维持在6800点以下，下行压力将占据主导，且下方缺乏有力的技术支撑区域。该机构警告称，即使市场反弹至6800点，也可能轻易回落，只有当指数明确突破该水平后，卖出看跌期权的资金才会进场提供新的支撑。</p><p>对于寻求交易机会的投资者，SpotGamma建议，若看涨，可考虑12月31日到期的6900点附近的看涨期权价差策略；若看跌，则建议选择明年2月或3月到期的看跌期权，以规避假期期间过快的时间价值损耗。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-19 08:34 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD 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INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2592138624","content_text":"本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义价值的期权合约到期，创下历史最高纪录。这一天被称为所谓的“四巫日”，即股指期货、股指期权、个股期货和个股期权同时到期的日子，这种集中到期通常会放大市场交易量和波动性。在这次创纪录的到期事件中，约5万亿美元的风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。高盛指出，虽然12月的期权到期通常是全年规模最大的，但本次的规模超过了以往所有记录，其名义风险敞口相当于罗素3000指数总市值的约10.2%。这一事件发生在美股年内已录得显著涨幅的背景下。标普500指数今年已上涨约15%，周四交投于6770点附近。创纪录的期权到期，可能成为年底行情中的一个关键变量，为市场增添了显著的不确定性。史上最大规模的到期事件此次期权到期之所以备受关注，核心在于其前所未有的规模。根据高盛分析师John Marshall的估算，超过7.1万亿美元的名义风险敞口将在今天集中到期。这一天在华尔街被称为“四巫日”（quadruple witching），每年仅发生四次，分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。在这一天，四类衍生品合约同时结算，迫使交易员和做市商进行大量的平仓、展期或对冲操作，从而导致交易活动异常活跃。高盛的数据显示，仅与标普500指数相关的零日到期期权（0DTE）的交易量就已达到历史高位，占期权总交易量的62%以上，这进一步加剧了当日的复杂性。波动性加剧还是“钉住”效应？如此巨量的期权到期，可能给市场带来两种截然不同的影响。一方面是可能加剧市场波动。KKM Financial的创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Kilburg表示：“我预计交易量将远超正常水平，因为期权交易员们需要了结2025年的盈亏。”他特别指出，标普500指数的6800点是一个重要的行权价位，市场将观察多头能否在该水平附近成功防守。另一方面，巨量期权也可能产生“钉住”（pin）效应，反而抑制价格波动。高盛在其报告中解释，如果大量期权合约的行权价恰好等于或非常接近标的资产的当前市价（即“平价期权”），做市商为了对冲自身风险敞口而进行的操作，可能会将股价“拉”向这个被大量交易的行权价，导致股价在收盘时稳定在该水平附近。高盛发现，包括GeneDx Holdings、BILL Holdings、Avis Budget Group和GameStop在内的个股，其即将到期的期权占其日均交易量的比例很高，因此可能更容易出现“钉住”现象。关键技术位与市场情绪从技术层面看，市场正处在一个微妙的平衡点。根据期权分析机构SpotGamma的报告，标普500指数目前处于从6700点到6900点的“负伽马”（negative gamma）区间，这意味着市场本身倾向于放大波动，即上涨时加速上涨，下跌时加速下跌。SpotGamma将6800点视为关键的“风险枢轴”（Risk 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