到时别又开看涨期权对_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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杰克闹
09-23 16:54

到时别又开看涨期权对冲啊，笑死人😅😅😅

大空头Burry加码做空美光、Nebius，逻辑是“内存供应激增，价格将面临下行压力”

Michael Burry高调加码做空美光、Palantir及半导体ETF，并直言"规模相当大"。其核心逻辑：三星、海力士、美光为满足AI对HBM的需求而压缩普通DRAM产能造成了了短缺；如今产能正在增加，供给过剩的达摩克利斯之剑已悬于市场头顶。宏碁CEO的库存预警，让他愈发确信内存周期已然见顶。

大空头Burry加码做空美光、Nebius，逻辑是“内存供应激增，价格将面临下行压力”

# 华尔街见闻

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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helpless
·09-23 21:24
他有点发狂了 [呆住]
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}\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大空头Burry加码做空美光、Nebius，逻辑是“内存供应激增，价格将面临下行压力”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-23 11:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>因坚信内存市场供需格局正在逆转，Michael Burry大幅扩大了对半导体板块的空头押注。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露，他已进一步加码做空美光科技、AI基础设施公司Nebius、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF以及Palantir，并强调此次操作&#34;规模相当大&#34;。此举的直接导火索，是宏碁CEO陈俊圣公开警告称，<strong>内存库存正在积累，新增供应将逐步冲击市场，并预计价格压力将于2027年底前后显现。</strong></p>\n<p>上述消息并未阻止相关股票短线上涨——美光股价当日盘中涨逾2%，SOXX上涨约1.5%，Nebius和Palantir亦小幅走高。这意味着Burry的空头仓位在短期内承压，但他表示，宏碁CEO的表态&#34;与我所相信的判断相吻合&#34;。</p>\n<h2>做空逻辑：AI拉动HBM需求，但普通内存供给正在反弹</h2>\n<p>Burry的核心论点在于，此前内存市场的短缺并非需求端的结构性繁荣，而是供给端的阶段性错位。他在文中解释称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>和美光等主要厂商为满足AI数据中心对高带宽内存（HBM）的旺盛需求，将大量产能从传统DRAM转向HBM，由此造成普通内存的供应紧张。</p>\n<p><strong>然而，随着厂商逐步将普通内存产能恢复，叠加全球多个地区的新增供应陆续释放，Burry认为，&#34;正常DRAM&#34;的产量正在回升，供需缺口将逐步收窄，并最终对价格形成下行压力。</strong></p>\n<p>宏碁CEO陈俊圣的表态为这一逻辑提供了新的佐证。Chen在接受采访时指出，内存库存已在积累，来自多个地区的供应商正在向市场释放更多产能，这将挑战&#34;当前短缺将持续数年&#34;的主流预期。Burry引用该采访后写道，尽管解读这一消息&#34;充满不确定性&#34;，但其方向与自己的判断一致。</p>\n<h2>空头布局：从英伟达到美光，押注范围持续扩大</h2>\n<p>Burry对半导体板块的看空布局并非一蹴而就。据披露，其旗下Scion Asset Management在2025年第三季度就已建立英伟达（NVDA）和Palantir的大额看跌期权仓位，彼时该基金随后宣告关闭。</p>\n<p><strong>进入2026年，Burry以个人名义延续并扩大了这一交易。</strong>2026年6月下旬，他做空英伟达、应用材料（AMAT）及iShares半导体ETF，并将SOXX看跌期权展期至2027年3月。两天后，他将美光科技纳入做空标的，以约1051美元的价格直接建立空头仓位，并解释称选择直接做空而非买入看跌期权，是因为美光的期权权利金过于昂贵。</p>\n<p>此次加码，是Burry在上述基础上的进一步强化，标志着他对内存周期见顶的判断愈发坚定。</p>\n<h2>散户情绪与Burry判断相左</h2>\n<p>从市场即时反应来看，散户投资者对Burry的看空逻辑并不买账。据Stocktwits数据，美光和SOXX的零售情绪在Burry发文当日均处于&#34;看多&#34;区间，Nebius的零售情绪同样偏多，仅Palantir的散户情绪显示为&#34;看空&#34;。</p>\n<p>这一分歧折射出当前市场对AI相关半导体股票的整体乐观预期，与Burry所押注的供给过剩、价格下行逻辑形成直接对立。对于投资者而言，核心问题在于：半导体行业的产能扩张，究竟何时才会真正追上需求——而这正是Burry整个交易逻辑的关键变量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d782f3a7e089042d5a3cab51b88bdbfc","relate_stocks":{"NVDO":"2倍上限加速NVDA ETF-Leverage Shares","VT":"世界全股市ETF-Vanguard","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","DISK":"Tema Memory ETF","PLOO":"2倍上限加速PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","FTXL":"First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF","TYLG":"GLOBAL X INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY COVERED CALL & GROWTH ETF","MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","CLSE":"Convergence Long/Short Equity ETF","IXN":"iShares Trust S&P Global Informa","AGOX":"Adaptive Alpha Opportunities ETF","MUG":"Leverage Shares 2X Long MU Daily ETF","PSI":"INVESCO SEMICONDUCTORS ETF","EMSF":"Matthews Emerging Markets Sustainable Future Active ETF","APMI":"Corgi AMAT 2x Daily ETF","TTEQ":"T. Rowe Price Technology ETF","BOBP":"CORE16 Best of Breed Premier Index ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","SMH":"半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","NVC":"Corgi NVDA 2x Daily ETF","LEGR":"First Trust Indxx Innovative Transaction & Process ETF","SPTE":"SP FUNDS S&P GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ETF","SNPE":"Xtrackers S&P 500 Scored & Screened ETF","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","WUGI":"AXS Esoterica NextG Economy ETF","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","TDV":"ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats ETF","WISE":"THEMES GENERATIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ETF","GAMR":"Amplify Video Game Leaders ETF","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra NVDA ETF","WLDR":"Affinity World Leaders Equity ETF","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","HBMX":"Tuttle Capital Concentrated Memory Stack ETF","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","TTXU":"Direxion Daily Technology Top 5 Bull 2X ETF","CMAG":"Corgi Mag 7 ETF","SMHX":"VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares","FTEC":"Fidelity MSCI Information Techno","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-T-Rex","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","RDVI":"FT Vest Rising Dividend Achievers Target Income ETF","FAI":"First Trust Bloomberg Artificial Intelligence ETF","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","RDVY":"First Trust Rising Dividend Achievers ETF","THMR":"THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic ETF","TRFK":"PACER DATA AND DIGITAL REVOLUTION ETF","EFIV":"SPDR S&P 500 ESG ETF","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","PLT":"Defiance Leveraged Long Plus Income PLTR ETF","MU":"美光科技","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","TEK":"iShares Technology Opportunities Active ETF","PLTA":"ProShares Ultra PLTR ETF","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","PLTD":"1倍做空PLTR ETF-Direxion","PLTG":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","PLTL":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Corgi","LFGY":"YieldMax Crypto Industry and Tech Portfolio Option Income ETF","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","AMA":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long AMAT ETF","PLTU":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Direxion","XNTK":"SPDR NYSE Technology ETF","AIFD":"TCW Artificial Intelligence ETF","PLTW":"PLTR周配息ETF-Roundhill","AMAU":"Leverage Shares 2X Long AMAT Daily ETF","ROM":"ProShares Ultra Technology","PLTY":"PLTR期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","EPAI":"Harbor AI Inflection Strategy ETF","CGGO":"Capital Group Global Growth Equity ETF","SOXL":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily","PLTZ":"2倍做空PLTR ETF-Defiance","EGGY":"NESTYIELD DYNAMIC INCOME SHIELD ETF","MUU":"2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion","CNEQ":"Alger Concentrated Equity ETF","SOXQ":"Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF","XLK":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR","PTF":"Invesco Dorsey Wright Technology Momentum ETF","MUYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOSTMU ETF","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","PLYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST PLTR ETF","SOXS":"三倍做空半导体ETF-Direxion Daily","AMAT":"应用材料","ESLG":"Eventide Large Cap Growth ETF","PLTI":"REX PLTR Growth & Income ETF","MUZ":"2倍做空MU ETF-Defiance","IGV":"北美软件ETF-iShares","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","USXF":"iShares ESG Advanced MSCI USA ETF","FXL":"First Trust Technology AlphaDEX Fund","RULE":"Adaptive Core ETF","USD":"ProShares Ultra Semiconductors","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","PTIR":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-GraniteShares","GUNZ":"Tuttle Capital Self Defense Index ETF","MIC":"2倍做多MU ETF-Corgi","SOXY":"YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option Income ETF","VGT":"信息技术ETF-Vanguard","CHPX":"Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum ETF","ABFL":"ABACUS FCF LEADERS ETF","IETC":"iShares U.S. Tech Independence Focused ETF","DRMY":"XFUNDS Memory Income ETF","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","AIPI":"REX AI EQUITY PREMIUM INCOME ETF","CHPS":"XTRACKERS SEMICONDUCTOR SELECT EQUITY ETF","QQQG":"Pacer Nasdaq 100 Top 50 Cash Cows Growth Leaders ETF","ESUM":"EVENTIDE US MARKET ETF","09388":"南方两倍做空英伟达-U","JGRO":"Jpmorgan Active Growth ETF","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","NULC":"Nuveen ESG Large-Cap ETF","AIQ":"Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","TINY":"ProShares Nanotechnology ETF","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BAI":"iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF","SHLD":"Global X Defense Tech ETF","EYES":"Corgi Data & Surveillance ETF","FDTX":"Fidelity Disruptive Technology ETF","ILDR":"First Trust Innovation Leaders ETF","AIS":"VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF","09788":"南方两倍做多英伟达-U","07388":"南方两倍做空英伟达","METV":"Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF","SHOC":"Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3782343","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2669049171","content_text":"因坚信内存市场供需格局正在逆转，Michael Burry大幅扩大了对半导体板块的空头押注。\n据Burry本人在Substack发文披露，他已进一步加码做空美光科技、AI基础设施公司Nebius、iShares半导体ETF以及Palantir，并强调此次操作\"规模相当大\"。此举的直接导火索，是宏碁CEO陈俊圣公开警告称，内存库存正在积累，新增供应将逐步冲击市场，并预计价格压力将于2027年底前后显现。\n上述消息并未阻止相关股票短线上涨——美光股价当日盘中涨逾2%，SOXX上涨约1.5%，Nebius和Palantir亦小幅走高。这意味着Burry的空头仓位在短期内承压，但他表示，宏碁CEO的表态\"与我所相信的判断相吻合\"。\n做空逻辑：AI拉动HBM需求，但普通内存供给正在反弹\nBurry的核心论点在于，此前内存市场的短缺并非需求端的结构性繁荣，而是供给端的阶段性错位。他在文中解释称，三星、SK海力士和美光等主要厂商为满足AI数据中心对高带宽内存（HBM）的旺盛需求，将大量产能从传统DRAM转向HBM，由此造成普通内存的供应紧张。\n然而，随着厂商逐步将普通内存产能恢复，叠加全球多个地区的新增供应陆续释放，Burry认为，\"正常DRAM\"的产量正在回升，供需缺口将逐步收窄，并最终对价格形成下行压力。\n宏碁CEO陈俊圣的表态为这一逻辑提供了新的佐证。Chen在接受采访时指出，内存库存已在积累，来自多个地区的供应商正在向市场释放更多产能，这将挑战\"当前短缺将持续数年\"的主流预期。Burry引用该采访后写道，尽管解读这一消息\"充满不确定性\"，但其方向与自己的判断一致。\n空头布局：从英伟达到美光，押注范围持续扩大\nBurry对半导体板块的看空布局并非一蹴而就。据披露，其旗下Scion Asset Management在2025年第三季度就已建立英伟达（NVDA）和Palantir的大额看跌期权仓位，彼时该基金随后宣告关闭。\n进入2026年，Burry以个人名义延续并扩大了这一交易。2026年6月下旬，他做空英伟达、应用材料（AMAT）及iShares半导体ETF，并将SOXX看跌期权展期至2027年3月。两天后，他将美光科技纳入做空标的，以约1051美元的价格直接建立空头仓位，并解释称选择直接做空而非买入看跌期权，是因为美光的期权权利金过于昂贵。\n此次加码，是Burry在上述基础上的进一步强化，标志着他对内存周期见顶的判断愈发坚定。\n散户情绪与Burry判断相左\n从市场即时反应来看，散户投资者对Burry的看空逻辑并不买账。据Stocktwits数据，美光和SOXX的零售情绪在Burry发文当日均处于\"看多\"区间，Nebius的零售情绪同样偏多，仅Palantir的散户情绪显示为\"看空\"。\n这一分歧折射出当前市场对AI相关半导体股票的整体乐观预期，与Burry所押注的供给过剩、价格下行逻辑形成直接对立。对于投资者而言，核心问题在于：半导体行业的产能扩张，究竟何时才会真正追上需求——而这正是Burry整个交易逻辑的关键变量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AIFD":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"GUNZ":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"MU":1.96,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"09788":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SNVDAmain":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"QQQG":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"SOXL":0.6,"SMU00main":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"07788":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"PLTD":0.6,"TDV":0.6,"TINY":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"09388":0.6,"PTF":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"RDVI":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"NVC":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"USD":0.6,"SPLTRmain":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"RDVY":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"PLTL":0.6,"APMI":0.6,"07388":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"SOXX":1.88,"AMAU":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"SOXS":0.6,"MUG":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"PLT":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"AMAT":1.81,"NVDG":0.6,"METV":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"NVDA":1.87,"PLTY":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"SHLD":0.6,"PLTR":1.85,"EPAI":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"EYES":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"AMA":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"VT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":37,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":610921170956720,"commentId":"610921170956720","gmtCreate":1790169870788,"gmtModify":1790169876267,"authorId":3486519042189695,"author":{"id":3486519042189695,"idStr":"3486519042189695","authorId":3486519042189695,"name":"helpless","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/271fd56cdc2cd348b1eeb8259a8bdd7a","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.06","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1001,"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":0}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":610854793024160,"objectIdStr":"610854793024160","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"他有点发狂了 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