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伯恩斯坦给闪老迪3K…用的是"新式周期定价

口罩哥KZG
07-01

不是涨价，是"新式长单"把周期焊死了

2026.06.30

Bernstein把闪迪目标价从1700直接抬到 3000。市场以为是涨价，其实是长单重写了内存的估值逻辑。

Bernstein 把闪迪 (SNDK) 目标价从1700一把拉到3000，对应FY28 EPS 11倍.... 完整版研报已上传。

核心不是NAND涨价，是新式长单。旧长单只保买方，新长单三件套：价格有地板、预付真金担保、锁量3-5年。

闪迪5单锁定690亿美元RPO、110亿美元担保，地板价0.29美元/GB。

妙处在尾部。随合约推进，担保占剩余合约比从16%一路升到FY30的75%——越到后期，保护越强。

图1 · 担保覆盖率逐年爬升，尾部保护最厚

FY27

20%

FY28

28%

FY29

53%

FY30

75%

担保/剩余RPO覆盖率 · 来源：Bernstein 2026.06.30

压力测试更狠：ASP从峰值暴跌72%，FY30 EPS仍有 214美元；没有长单，只剩81。

外部环境印证：NAND二季合约价环比涨 "70%-75%" (环比70到75个百分点)，AI服务器需求缺口为2011年来最大。—— TrendForce 2026.06

图2 · 传导链：长单去周期 → 板块重估

新式长单 ▶ 周期波动↓ ▶ EPS地板抬升 ▶ 从周期股→franchise

终局映射：美光fwd PE仍仅约10倍 · A股存储链量价齐升+国产替代双击

真正的delta：内存正从"说崩就崩"的周期货，变成有能见度的预售制生意。

而美光10倍、SK海力士不到10倍的估值，还在按崩盘定价——错配即机会....

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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cky10327
·07-03
才发现，原来是tww啊 [捂脸]这一波杀疯了哥
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<p>Bernstein 把闪迪 (SNDK) 目标价从1700一把拉到3000，对应FY28 EPS 11倍.... 完整版研报已上传。</p>\n <p><span>核心不是NAND涨价，是</span><span>新式长单</span><span>。</span><span>旧长单只保买方，新长单三件套：价格有地板、预付真金担保、锁量3-5年。</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040df492465e4ea69ef3c40a3e50fb1b\"></p>\n <p><span>闪迪5单锁定690亿美元RPO、110亿美元担保，地板价0.29美元/GB。</span></p>\n <p>妙处在尾部。随合约推进，担保占剩余合约比从16%一路升到FY30的75%——越到后期，保护越强。</p>\n <div>\n  <p>图1 · 担保覆盖率逐年爬升，尾部保护最厚</p>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    FY27\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    20%\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    FY28\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    28%\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    FY29\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    53%\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    FY30\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    75%\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   担保/剩余RPO覆盖率 · 来源：Bernstein 2026.06.30\n  </div>\n </div>\n <p>压力测试更狠：ASP从峰值暴跌72%，FY30 EPS仍有<span>&nbsp;</span><span>214美元</span>；没有长单，只剩81。</p>\n <p>外部环境印证：NAND二季合约价环比涨 \"70%-75%\" (环比70到75个百分点)，AI服务器需求缺口为2011年来最大。<span>—— TrendForce 2026.06</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227fabf98d764570833341a62851eb4d\"></p>\n <div>\n  <p>图2 · 传导链：长单去周期 → 板块重估</p>\n  <div>\n   <span>新式长单</span><span>&nbsp;</span><span>▶</span><span>&nbsp;</span><span>周期波动↓</span><span>&nbsp;</span><span>▶</span><span>&nbsp;</span><span>EPS地板抬升</span><span>&nbsp;</span><span>▶</span><span>&nbsp;</span><span>从周期股→franchise</span>\n   <div>\n    终局映射：美光fwd PE仍仅约10倍 · A股存储链量价齐升+国产替代双击\n   </div>\n  </div>\n </div>\n <p>真正的delta：内存正从\"说崩就崩\"的周期货，变成有能见度的<span>预售制生意</span>。</p>\n <p>而美光10倍、SK海力士不到10倍的估值，还在按崩盘定价——错配即机会....</p>\n</div></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><div>\n <h1><span>不是涨价，是\"新式长单\"把周期焊死了</span><br></h1>\n <p>2026.06.30</p>\n <div>\n  <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737346f9ff144b21ba06b3beae4bd82e\"></p>\n 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目标价从1700一把拉到3000，对应FY28 EPS 11倍.... 完整版研报已上传。 核心不是NAND涨价，是新式长单。旧长单只保买方，新长单三件套：价格有地板、预付真金担保、锁量3-5年。 闪迪5单锁定690亿美元RPO、110亿美元担保，地板价0.29美元/GB。 妙处在尾部。随合约推进，担保占剩余合约比从16%一路升到FY30的75%——越到后期，保护越强。 图1 · 担保覆盖率逐年爬升，尾部保护最厚 FY27 20% FY28 28% FY29 53% FY30 75% 担保/剩余RPO覆盖率 · 来源：Bernstein 2026.06.30 压力测试更狠：ASP从峰值暴跌72%，FY30 EPS仍有 214美元；没有长单，只剩81。 外部环境印证：NAND二季合约价环比涨 \"70%-75%\" (环比70到75个百分点)，AI服务器需求缺口为2011年来最大。—— TrendForce 2026.06 图2 · 传导链：长单去周期 → 板块重估 新式长单 ▶ 周期波动↓ ▶ EPS地板抬升 ▶ 从周期股→franchise 终局映射：美光fwd PE仍仅约10倍 · A股存储链量价齐升+国产替代双击 真正的delta：内存正从\"说崩就崩\"的周期货，变成有能见度的预售制生意。 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[捂脸]这一波杀疯了哥","text":"才发现，原来是tww啊 [捂脸]这一波杀疯了哥","html":"才发现，原来是tww啊 [捂脸]这一波杀疯了哥","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}