目前市场的钝化度在提_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

邓文鄧文邓闻
2024-04-09

目前市场的钝化度在提高，如收益率上升不能压制黄金、不能压制市场情绪、那么VIX上升的门槛也变高了、同时市场预期的降息次数减少或推后或今年不降息、其作用力也减少了，钝化度提高的原因两点：

一是经济形势的转变，经济强劲VS前段几个月的经济还不确定性，现实的改变引发叙事的改变，二是前面几个月整个市场的变化度数，观察收益率中枢，前面的低，而现在在身高，10Y收益率起码要超过5.0，才会引发市场情绪的转变，不像前几个月，到4.3市场就开始鸽转鹰。

其事实，高钝化度有利于调整和切换的、即使资产价格波动率扩张、市场情绪的变动也不会大，财报季做市商把IV拉高的比上季高或持平，都是严重的市场定价错误。 $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ $波动率短期期货指数ETF(VIXY)$

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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奶粉侠
·2024-04-09
我认为目前市场的确处于一段偏高的钝化状态。
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