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老雷唯微
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-29 22:01
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
“HDD文艺复兴”席卷全球!希捷强劲业绩带动存储板块狂飙,直言2027年产能近乎售罄
在最新的季度业绩报告发布前,希捷股价今年以来已经上涨逾110%。全球SSD存储产品领军者闪迪股价自2026年初以来则可谓暴涨超300%大幅跑赢全球股市基准指数,总市值一度接近1600亿美元。“存储超级周期”有望延续至2030年!
“HDD文艺复兴”席卷全球!希捷强劲业绩带动存储板块狂飙,直言2027年产能近乎售罄
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-27 17:29
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
高盛交易台:五大信号闪烁,美股迎来“新高后的回撤窗口”
标普500悄然创历史新高,高盛交易台却同步拉响五大警报:对冲基金七个月最大单周降杠杆、养老金250亿美元历史级卖盘压顶、CTA买盘动能耗尽转向潜在卖方、新高当日市场广度创史上第二差、情绪指标与半导体涨势双双进入"拉伸区间"。繁荣表象之下,风暴或已悄然集结。
高盛交易台:五大信号闪烁,美股迎来“新高后的回撤窗口”
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-27 17:26
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
老虎暗盘|曦智科技暴涨超300%,被称为“全球AI硅光芯片第一股”
全球首家实现光电混合算力大规模部署。
老虎暗盘|曦智科技暴涨超300%,被称为“全球AI硅光芯片第一股”
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-26
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
夜盘异动 | 亚马逊持股的X-Energy续涨15%,IPO首日大涨近27%
核电服务商X-Energy周五纳斯达克上市首日大涨27%,收报29.20美元,市值达115亿美元。受益于AI电力需求爆发,其IPO定价超预期,募资逾10亿美元。亚马逊作为大股东与客户已承诺5吉瓦订单。尽管2025年亏损且商业化尚需数年,但Ken Griffin及Ares等早期投资者已获数倍账面浮盈。
夜盘异动 | 亚马逊持股的X-Energy续涨15%,IPO首日大涨近27%
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-26
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
司法部撤案、沃什入场、下周FOMC——美联储换帅倒计时,“无前瞻指引”时代要来了
鲍威尔谢幕在即,接任者沃什欲强拆“前瞻指引”与点阵图。这意味着长达15年的全球资产定价“底座”面临崩塌。确定性溢价终结,股债汇市场即将全面“失锚”,一场波及所有资产的定价模型的风暴已悄然掀起。
司法部撤案、沃什入场、下周FOMC——美联储换帅倒计时,“无前瞻指引”时代要来了
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-25
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
财报前瞻|增长与挑战并存!iPhone稳撑大局,苹果Q2业绩有望超预期
核心业务前瞻:iPhone稳撑大局,Mac成潜在亮点iPhone业务:需求强劲,出货量有望达6000万部作为苹果的核心营收支柱,iPhone业务在本季度仍将保持强劲增长态势。本季度,iPhone需求延续旺盛态势,不同机构给出的出货量预测均呈现同比增长。
财报前瞻|增长与挑战并存!iPhone稳撑大局,苹果Q2业绩有望超预期
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-24
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
美国“布什”号航母驶近中东,以色列称准备好重启战争,伊朗制定“对等回应”方案
能源与避险资产的剧烈波动或一触即发。
美国“布什”号航母驶近中东,以色列称准备好重启战争,伊朗制定“对等回应”方案
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-24
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
“模拟芯片一哥”德州仪器业绩炸裂背后:半导体成为高确定性的AI赛道
Q2指引碾压市场预期
“模拟芯片一哥”德州仪器业绩炸裂背后:半导体成为高确定性的AI赛道
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-24
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
AI竞赛加速!OpenAI发布GPT-5.5“史上最智能”,Anthropic同步向英国业界推销Mythos
OpenAI发布GPT-5.5;与此同时,英国银行和企业正寻求采用Anthropic的Mythos。
AI竞赛加速!OpenAI发布GPT-5.5“史上最智能”,Anthropic同步向英国业界推销Mythos
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老雷唯微
老雷唯微
·
04-24
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达
《大空头》原型投资人Michael Burry周四宣布建仓微软,增持Adobe、PayPal等软件股,同时买入纳指ETF及英伟达看跌期权做空科技大盘与半导体。
多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达
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13:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“HDD文艺复兴”席卷全球!希捷强劲业绩带动存储板块狂飙,直言2027年产能近乎售罄","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2631355274","media":"智通财经","summary":"在最新的季度业绩报告发布前,希捷股价今年以来已经上涨逾110%。全球SSD存储产品领军者闪迪股价自2026年初以来则可谓暴涨超300%大幅跑赢全球股市基准指数,总市值一度接近1600亿美元。“存储超级周期”有望延续至2030年!","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月29日,与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>共同位列美国三大存储产品领军势力的希捷(STX.US)北京时间周三晨间公布公布季度业绩以及未来展望,数据显示出全球科技企业对于高性能近线HDD与企业级数据中心SSD近乎“无止境”炸裂式需求推动之下,这家存储巨头季度业绩与业绩展望指引均全线超出华尔街分析师预期。希捷的这份全线超预期式强劲增长业绩,可谓全面强化三大存储芯片原厂——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、SK海力士与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>,以及西部数据和闪迪等存储产品巨头们强势领衔的所谓“存储超级周期”繁荣增长叙事,并且一己之力带动周二遭遇重挫的美股存储板块在盘后交易狂飙。</p><p>希捷管理层给出的强劲业绩预测以及存储板块盘后大涨,凸显出投资者们愈发强劲看涨信心——即尽管市场更广泛地担忧企业AI实际采用速度,但大型科技巨头们AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼将继续强劲支撑对数据存储设备的炸裂式扩张需求。市场过去一度把HDD(即机械硬盘)视为被SSD逐步替代的“旧技术”,但AI基建狂潮让数据中心重新需要海量、低成本、长期留存的数据容量;所谓“HDD文艺复兴时刻”绝非空泛修辞,而是指HDD从长期被边缘化的传统硬件,重新成为AI数据中心海量容量底座的核心资产。</p><p>市场最为聚焦的业绩展望方面,希捷预计第四财季累计营收约为34.5亿美元,上下浮动1亿美元;根据LSEG汇编的数据,这一预测显著高于分析师们平均预估的31.6亿美元——要知道该项预期自年初全球股市存储板块暴涨以来可谓不断被上调。调整后EPS指引则为5美元区间,显著高于市场预期的约3.95美元。</p><p>希捷及其主要HDD机械硬盘竞争对手西部数据(Western Digital)的高管们此前曾表示,它们的产能已全部分配完毕,并已售罄至2026日历年。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>CEO在本次业绩电话会议上则宣布存储产品进入“结构性增长<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">新时代</a>”,将未来数年年营收增长目标从“低至中双位数”大幅上调至至少20%,高呼数据中心级别的近线硬盘容量直至2027年产能几乎售罄,即产能已近乎全部分配至2027全年。</p><p>在截至4月3日的2026财年第三财季,希捷总营收约31.1亿美元,同比增长44%,超出华尔街分析师们平均预期的29.6亿美元。NON-GAAP准则下的调整后每股收益4.10美元,较上年同期的1.90美元可谓大幅增长,且大幅超过市场预期的3.51美元。GAAP每股收益为3.27美元,上年同期则为1.57美元。NON-GAAP毛利率达到47%,较上季度提升480个基点;NON-GAAP营业利润率扩张至37.5%,较上季度提升560个基点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284bf0c90c0605229a1ae1730486c29d\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"242\"/></p><p>硬盘重新被资本市场定价,是因为AI并不只消耗GPU和HBM,也会制造长期、低成本、大容量的数据留存需求。训练数据、推理日志、多模态输出、视频生成、自动驾驶数据、企业AI工作流和智能体长期记忆,都会把数据从“计算一次就结束”变成“持续生成、持续归档、持续检索”。希捷CEO Dave Mosley将其称为“结构性增长新时代”,核心正是在于AI智能体以及生成式AI应用正在放大海量AI大模型驱动的长篇大论以及高清视频生成,推动云平台和数据中心的近乎无止境存储需求。</p><p>希捷强劲财报和指引无疑强有力证明,企业AI支出并未因为OpenAI用户或营收未达标传闻波动而熄火;相反,AI洪流彻底重塑硬盘价值,数据中心正在为AI时代的前所未见“数据洪流”提前锁定存储产能。对投资者们而言,HDD双寡头的真正看点不是传统PC硬盘复苏,而是AI数据中心让机械硬盘重新成为AI云计算基础设施瓶颈资产。</p><h2 id=\"id_1885051460\">AI数据洪流拉爆存储需求!希捷强劲业绩与展望点燃存储板块</h2><p>随着大型科技巨头以及像OpenAI、Anthropic这样的AI应用领军者们急于升级其人工智能模型以及大规模新建AI算力基础设施,它们已将越来越大规模资金投入HBM、eSSD、HDD机械硬盘和其他高性能数字存储设备。</p><p>在规模呈现指数级持续扩张的AI训练/推理系统,AI语料、检索库(RAG corpus)、观测数据(日志/追踪/遥测)、合规留存与备份,最终都要落到最低TCO的容量层,因此AI数据中心愈发倾向用相对少量SSD做缓存/热层,用海量具备TCO优势的HDD扛容量/冷温层。</p><p>在强劲业绩与未来展望共同催化之下,希捷股价在盘后交易中飙升超18%,带动西部数据公司股价(WDC.US)盘后大幅上涨10%,美国DRAM/NAND存储芯片领军者美光(MU.US)股价上涨超4%,SSD存储芯片领军者(SNDK.US)上涨超5%,四家美国存储领军者的市值盘后合计增加600亿美元。</p><p>在最新的季度业绩报告发布前,希捷股价今年以来已经上涨逾110%。全球SSD存储产品领军者闪迪股价自2026年初以来则可谓暴涨超300%大幅跑赢全球股市基准指数,总市值一度接近1600亿美元。在整个2025年,闪迪股价涨幅高达惊人的580%,今年在AI基建狂潮带来的近乎无止境存储芯片需求推动之下,仍在上演“全球存储芯片神话”般的史诗级涨势,乃全球股市毋庸置疑的AI算力基础设施主题“超级大牛股”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1de741159c81899744fc114d7a026ba\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p>希捷首席执行官Dave Mosley在财报后电话会议上表示:“AI正在全面放大现有应用领域的需求,例如AI生成的高清视频,大型云服务提供商正在将前沿AI技术大规模整合进平台,以提升用户参与度和新的创收机会,推动新视频创作以及存储这些内容的指数级增长需求。”</p><p>在周二美股常态交易时段,有着“全球科技股风向标”称号的纳斯达克100指数下跌近1%,核心原因是一份报道称,OpenAI近几个月未能实现此前制定的新用户和营收增长目标,引发市场对全球AI热潮以及AI实际变现路径的担忧情绪。</p><p>希捷强劲业绩报告发布后,纳斯达克100股指期货从此前的下跌转为上涨超0.5%,显示出交易员们预计在希捷无比强劲业绩增长预期驱动之下,AI算力产业链领军者们占据主导市值力量的科技股势力将在周三交易时段呈现反弹。</p><h2 id=\"id_1090146105\">“存储超级周期”有望延续至2030年! 属于HDD的盛世到来</h2><p>明星分析师Ben Reitzes领导的Melius分析师团队近日发布研报称,人工智能热潮将推动存储芯片需求持续强劲增长至本十年末(即2030年)。根据市场研究机构Counterpoint Research统计数据,存储市场已进入“超级牛市”或者“超级周期”阶段,当前供需与价格行情远远超越了2018年云计算热潮时期的历史高点。</p><p>2026年以来,DRAM/NAND存储芯片仍在持续狂飙,研究机构TrendForce集邦咨询最新存储器价格调查显示,预估2026年第二季度整体一般型DRAM(Conventional DRAM)合约价格将环比大幅增长58%-63%(此前Conventional DRAM的Q1涨价预期为93%至98%),NAND Flash市场持续由AI训练/推理以及广泛的数据中心相关需求所主导,全产品线连锁涨价的效应不减,预计二季度整体合约价格在第一季度上涨近100%的基数之上,将环比大幅增长70%-75%。</p><p>随着Anthropic重磅推出的Claude Cowork,以及OpenClaw这类可自主执行任务的超级AI代理工具在2026年集中爆发,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>等金融巨头们看来,AI算力投资主线叙事正在从“围绕AI GPU/ASIC单点算力竞赛”转向“AI智能体驱动的人工智能全栈系统”,而在这种AI主线叙事转变中,数据中心CPU与存储芯片可能是最大赢家势力。</p><p>也就是说,AI算力牛市正在从“AI芯片算力系统”进一步扩散到中央处理器以及“数据存储底座”。GPU负责生成智能,HBM/DRAM负责高速喂数,企业级NAND/eSSD负责热数据与缓存,而HDD负责天量级别的冷/温数据的长期留存。随着全球AI基建浪潮愈发从“训练集群”转向“持续推理+多模态生成+智能体运行”,数据就越多、留存周期越长、单位存储成本越重要;这让希捷从传统硬盘厂商,变成AI数据中心“容量底座”的稀缺供应商。</p><p>摩根士丹利所谓“机械硬盘双寡头被低估”的逻辑,关键就是在于HDD供给侧比DRAM/NAND更难快速扩张。HDD市场高度集中,希捷与西部数据公司合计掌握绝大部分近线硬盘供应,行业没有大规模绿地扩产,资本开支强度远低于存储半导体;同时,HAMR/Mozaic等高容量路线通过提升单盘容量降低每TB成本,使供应商既能涨价,又能降本。摩根士丹利将希捷股票纳入“首选股票名单”,核心逻辑在于AI数据中心需求和HDD供需紧张可能把缺口延长至2028—2030年。</p><p>从具体产品线看,希捷受益最直接的是近线HDD与HAMR/Mozaic高容量硬盘路线,而不是传统PC硬盘复苏。近线盘用于云数据中心的大容量池化存储,正好对应AI数据洪流;HAMR/Mozaic通过提升单碟密度,把单盘容量推向40TB、50TB级别,使希捷可以在不同比例增加材料和机械部件的情况下摊薄每TB成本,同时向超大规模云厂商销售更高容量、更高价值的产品。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“HDD文艺复兴”席卷全球!希捷强劲业绩带动存储板块狂飙,直言2027年产能近乎售罄\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-29 13:50 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1435990.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月29日,与闪迪、西部数据共同位列美国三大存储产品领军势力的希捷(STX.US)北京时间周三晨间公布公布季度业绩以及未来展望,数据显示出全球科技企业对于高性能近线HDD与企业级数据中心SSD近乎“无止境”炸裂式需求推动之下,这家存储巨头季度业绩与业绩展望指引均全线超出华尔街分析师预期。希捷的这份全线超预期式强劲增长业绩,可谓全面强化三大存储芯片原厂——三星、SK海力士与美光科技,以及西部数据和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1435990.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1435990.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2631355274","content_text":"4月29日,与闪迪、西部数据共同位列美国三大存储产品领军势力的希捷(STX.US)北京时间周三晨间公布公布季度业绩以及未来展望,数据显示出全球科技企业对于高性能近线HDD与企业级数据中心SSD近乎“无止境”炸裂式需求推动之下,这家存储巨头季度业绩与业绩展望指引均全线超出华尔街分析师预期。希捷的这份全线超预期式强劲增长业绩,可谓全面强化三大存储芯片原厂——三星、SK海力士与美光科技,以及西部数据和闪迪等存储产品巨头们强势领衔的所谓“存储超级周期”繁荣增长叙事,并且一己之力带动周二遭遇重挫的美股存储板块在盘后交易狂飙。希捷管理层给出的强劲业绩预测以及存储板块盘后大涨,凸显出投资者们愈发强劲看涨信心——即尽管市场更广泛地担忧企业AI实际采用速度,但大型科技巨头们AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼将继续强劲支撑对数据存储设备的炸裂式扩张需求。市场过去一度把HDD(即机械硬盘)视为被SSD逐步替代的“旧技术”,但AI基建狂潮让数据中心重新需要海量、低成本、长期留存的数据容量;所谓“HDD文艺复兴时刻”绝非空泛修辞,而是指HDD从长期被边缘化的传统硬件,重新成为AI数据中心海量容量底座的核心资产。市场最为聚焦的业绩展望方面,希捷预计第四财季累计营收约为34.5亿美元,上下浮动1亿美元;根据LSEG汇编的数据,这一预测显著高于分析师们平均预估的31.6亿美元——要知道该项预期自年初全球股市存储板块暴涨以来可谓不断被上调。调整后EPS指引则为5美元区间,显著高于市场预期的约3.95美元。希捷及其主要HDD机械硬盘竞争对手西部数据(Western Digital)的高管们此前曾表示,它们的产能已全部分配完毕,并已售罄至2026日历年。希捷科技CEO在本次业绩电话会议上则宣布存储产品进入“结构性增长新时代”,将未来数年年营收增长目标从“低至中双位数”大幅上调至至少20%,高呼数据中心级别的近线硬盘容量直至2027年产能几乎售罄,即产能已近乎全部分配至2027全年。在截至4月3日的2026财年第三财季,希捷总营收约31.1亿美元,同比增长44%,超出华尔街分析师们平均预期的29.6亿美元。NON-GAAP准则下的调整后每股收益4.10美元,较上年同期的1.90美元可谓大幅增长,且大幅超过市场预期的3.51美元。GAAP每股收益为3.27美元,上年同期则为1.57美元。NON-GAAP毛利率达到47%,较上季度提升480个基点;NON-GAAP营业利润率扩张至37.5%,较上季度提升560个基点。硬盘重新被资本市场定价,是因为AI并不只消耗GPU和HBM,也会制造长期、低成本、大容量的数据留存需求。训练数据、推理日志、多模态输出、视频生成、自动驾驶数据、企业AI工作流和智能体长期记忆,都会把数据从“计算一次就结束”变成“持续生成、持续归档、持续检索”。希捷CEO Dave Mosley将其称为“结构性增长新时代”,核心正是在于AI智能体以及生成式AI应用正在放大海量AI大模型驱动的长篇大论以及高清视频生成,推动云平台和数据中心的近乎无止境存储需求。希捷强劲财报和指引无疑强有力证明,企业AI支出并未因为OpenAI用户或营收未达标传闻波动而熄火;相反,AI洪流彻底重塑硬盘价值,数据中心正在为AI时代的前所未见“数据洪流”提前锁定存储产能。对投资者们而言,HDD双寡头的真正看点不是传统PC硬盘复苏,而是AI数据中心让机械硬盘重新成为AI云计算基础设施瓶颈资产。AI数据洪流拉爆存储需求!希捷强劲业绩与展望点燃存储板块随着大型科技巨头以及像OpenAI、Anthropic这样的AI应用领军者们急于升级其人工智能模型以及大规模新建AI算力基础设施,它们已将越来越大规模资金投入HBM、eSSD、HDD机械硬盘和其他高性能数字存储设备。在规模呈现指数级持续扩张的AI训练/推理系统,AI语料、检索库(RAG corpus)、观测数据(日志/追踪/遥测)、合规留存与备份,最终都要落到最低TCO的容量层,因此AI数据中心愈发倾向用相对少量SSD做缓存/热层,用海量具备TCO优势的HDD扛容量/冷温层。在强劲业绩与未来展望共同催化之下,希捷股价在盘后交易中飙升超18%,带动西部数据公司股价(WDC.US)盘后大幅上涨10%,美国DRAM/NAND存储芯片领军者美光(MU.US)股价上涨超4%,SSD存储芯片领军者(SNDK.US)上涨超5%,四家美国存储领军者的市值盘后合计增加600亿美元。在最新的季度业绩报告发布前,希捷股价今年以来已经上涨逾110%。全球SSD存储产品领军者闪迪股价自2026年初以来则可谓暴涨超300%大幅跑赢全球股市基准指数,总市值一度接近1600亿美元。在整个2025年,闪迪股价涨幅高达惊人的580%,今年在AI基建狂潮带来的近乎无止境存储芯片需求推动之下,仍在上演“全球存储芯片神话”般的史诗级涨势,乃全球股市毋庸置疑的AI算力基础设施主题“超级大牛股”。希捷首席执行官Dave Mosley在财报后电话会议上表示:“AI正在全面放大现有应用领域的需求,例如AI生成的高清视频,大型云服务提供商正在将前沿AI技术大规模整合进平台,以提升用户参与度和新的创收机会,推动新视频创作以及存储这些内容的指数级增长需求。”在周二美股常态交易时段,有着“全球科技股风向标”称号的纳斯达克100指数下跌近1%,核心原因是一份报道称,OpenAI近几个月未能实现此前制定的新用户和营收增长目标,引发市场对全球AI热潮以及AI实际变现路径的担忧情绪。希捷强劲业绩报告发布后,纳斯达克100股指期货从此前的下跌转为上涨超0.5%,显示出交易员们预计在希捷无比强劲业绩增长预期驱动之下,AI算力产业链领军者们占据主导市值力量的科技股势力将在周三交易时段呈现反弹。“存储超级周期”有望延续至2030年! 属于HDD的盛世到来明星分析师Ben Reitzes领导的Melius分析师团队近日发布研报称,人工智能热潮将推动存储芯片需求持续强劲增长至本十年末(即2030年)。根据市场研究机构Counterpoint Research统计数据,存储市场已进入“超级牛市”或者“超级周期”阶段,当前供需与价格行情远远超越了2018年云计算热潮时期的历史高点。2026年以来,DRAM/NAND存储芯片仍在持续狂飙,研究机构TrendForce集邦咨询最新存储器价格调查显示,预估2026年第二季度整体一般型DRAM(Conventional DRAM)合约价格将环比大幅增长58%-63%(此前Conventional DRAM的Q1涨价预期为93%至98%),NAND Flash市场持续由AI训练/推理以及广泛的数据中心相关需求所主导,全产品线连锁涨价的效应不减,预计二季度整体合约价格在第一季度上涨近100%的基数之上,将环比大幅增长70%-75%。随着Anthropic重磅推出的Claude Cowork,以及OpenClaw这类可自主执行任务的超级AI代理工具在2026年集中爆发,在摩根士丹利等金融巨头们看来,AI算力投资主线叙事正在从“围绕AI GPU/ASIC单点算力竞赛”转向“AI智能体驱动的人工智能全栈系统”,而在这种AI主线叙事转变中,数据中心CPU与存储芯片可能是最大赢家势力。也就是说,AI算力牛市正在从“AI芯片算力系统”进一步扩散到中央处理器以及“数据存储底座”。GPU负责生成智能,HBM/DRAM负责高速喂数,企业级NAND/eSSD负责热数据与缓存,而HDD负责天量级别的冷/温数据的长期留存。随着全球AI基建浪潮愈发从“训练集群”转向“持续推理+多模态生成+智能体运行”,数据就越多、留存周期越长、单位存储成本越重要;这让希捷从传统硬盘厂商,变成AI数据中心“容量底座”的稀缺供应商。摩根士丹利所谓“机械硬盘双寡头被低估”的逻辑,关键就是在于HDD供给侧比DRAM/NAND更难快速扩张。HDD市场高度集中,希捷与西部数据公司合计掌握绝大部分近线硬盘供应,行业没有大规模绿地扩产,资本开支强度远低于存储半导体;同时,HAMR/Mozaic等高容量路线通过提升单盘容量降低每TB成本,使供应商既能涨价,又能降本。摩根士丹利将希捷股票纳入“首选股票名单”,核心逻辑在于AI数据中心需求和HDD供需紧张可能把缺口延长至2028—2030年。从具体产品线看,希捷受益最直接的是近线HDD与HAMR/Mozaic高容量硬盘路线,而不是传统PC硬盘复苏。近线盘用于云数据中心的大容量池化存储,正好对应AI数据洪流;HAMR/Mozaic通过提升单碟密度,把单盘容量推向40TB、50TB级别,使希捷可以在不同比例增加材料和机械部件的情况下摊薄每TB成本,同时向超大规模云厂商销售更高容量、更高价值的产品。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDU":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"STX":1.98,"WDC":2,"WDCX":0.6,"MU":2,"MUD":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"SNDK":2,"MUU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558081680308096,"gmtCreate":1777282186786,"gmtModify":1777282189012,"author":{"id":"4203929645427010","authorId":"4203929645427010","name":"老雷唯微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26121a8668e93a57f493587b69c73fd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203929645427010","idStr":"4203929645427010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558081680308096","repostId":"2630835622","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2630835622","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777260870,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2630835622?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-27 11:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高盛交易台:五大信号闪烁,美股迎来“新高后的回撤窗口”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2630835622","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"标普500悄然创历史新高,高盛交易台却同步拉响五大警报:对冲基金七个月最大单周降杠杆、养老金250亿美元历史级卖盘压顶、CTA买盘动能耗尽转向潜在卖方、新高当日市场广度创史上第二差、情绪指标与半导体涨势双双进入\"拉伸区间\"。繁荣表象之下,风暴或已悄然集结。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在经历4月剧烈震荡后悄然回归历史高位,但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易台内部已拉响警报。</p><p>高盛交易员John Flood在周末报告中明确指出,尽管他认为标普500指数2026年全年将显著高于当前水平,但眼下有五大预警信号同步闪烁,交易台正在为近期指数层面的回撤做准备。</p><p>与此同时,另一位高盛交易员Brian Garrett也在其"周末备忘"报告中记录了对冲基金大规模降杠杆的异常动向。但两人均认为,若回撤发生,应将其视为买入机会。</p><p>这一警示发出的时间节点颇为微妙——本周将是年内最繁忙的一周,美联储与日本央行均将公布利率决议,标普500成分股中约44%的市值将在本周披露财报,包括周三盘后的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>,以及周四盘后的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>。</p><h2 id=\"id_2045705129\">信号一:对冲基金急踩刹车,七个月最大单周降杠杆</h2><p>高盛大宗经纪数据显示,上周整体总交易活动为13周以来首次下降,美股名义降杠杆规模为7个月(2025年9月)以来最大,主要由风险平仓驱动。从板块看,消费可选与科技板块的降杠杆力度最为激进,为近五年第三大单周降杠杆。</p><p>Flood指出,这是五大预警信号中的第一个:<strong>宏观空头对冲被大规模回补后,总杠杆率已明显收缩。</strong>美国上市ETF空头上周再度减少1.4%,月内累计下降21.5%,信用、信息技术及小盘股ETF的回补领跑。</p><p>Garrett将对冲基金的净敞口形容为"全年维持在正负53%区间内相对克制",并将此定性为"在'未知的未知'事件频发的市场环境下审慎的风险管理"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b5b48177ce82221af34e67ccd15efd2\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"262\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1873597875\">信号二:月末养老金再平衡压力创历史纪录</h2><p>第二个信号来自被动卖盘。高盛估算,<strong>4月月末养老金再平衡将产生约250亿美元的美股卖出需求</strong>,位列2000年以来所有卖出估算的前15大之列。若剔除季度到期因素(同时包含月度与季度再平衡),这将是有史以来最大的单月卖出估算。</p><p>以绝对金额衡量,此次250亿美元的卖出规模在过去三年所有买卖估算中位于第83百分位,若追溯至2000年1月则位于第92百分位。历史上可比的非季度卖出估算依次为:2020年11月与4月各约200亿美元、2025年5月约190亿美元、2022年10月约180亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/02305715d3986c5f47cc530267dbe7bd\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"425\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3140141738\">信号三:CTA买盘耗尽,转为潜在卖出方</h2><p>第三个信号指向趋势追踪策略(CTA)。高盛期货交易台数据显示,自4月以来,CTA群体是驱动全球股市上涨最重要的资金力量,月内已累计买入约530亿美元全球股票,本月仅标普500一项便净买入约320亿美元(上周买入230亿美元)。</p><p><strong>然而,这一买盘动能计划已告终结。</strong>Flood指出,这是逾一个月以来CTA首次不再是标普500的净买入方——在盘面平稳时小幅偏向卖出,若市场出现下行,则将形成更为显著的供给压力。这意味着此前持续托底的最大边际买入方已经"满仓踏步",市场失去了一个重要的自动稳定器。</p><h2 id=\"id_2754401358\">信号四:市场广度极度恶化,新高背后暗藏隐忧</h2><p>第四个信号揭示出表面繁荣之下的结构性隐忧。上周五标普500创下历史收盘新高,但当日市场广度为有史以来创新高时第二差的纪录:<strong>324只成分股收跌,净广度读数为-148。</strong>唯一更差的纪录出现在2025年10月,当时标普500创新高当日有80%的成分股下跌。</p><p>市场宽度的严重分化意味着此轮上涨高度集中于少数权重股,整体市场的参与度已大幅萎缩。此类结构在历史上往往是高位震荡或回调的先行指标。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1a519c45bfd65064627c5ff025c333d\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1495560928\">信号五:情绪指标进入“拉伸区间”,半导体涨势引发警惕</h2><p>第五个信号来自高盛美国股票情绪指标:<strong>投资者仓位已显示出"拉伸"特征。</strong>从整体情绪框架看,仓位结构仍处于相对偏高的状态。</p><p>与此同时,Flood特别点名半导体板块的极端走势。费城半导体指数(SOX)已连续上涨18个交易日,创有史以来最长连涨纪录,周五收盘较200日均线高出约50%——这是自2000年泡沫顶峰以来偏离200日均线最极端的一次(彼时SOX曾较200日均线高出逾100%)。这一走势是市场对AI算力消耗与营收变现关联度的信心增强,以及AI复合体新一轮产能约束担忧。</p><p>从衍生品市场看,标普500的gamma仓位处于罕见区域,做市商对现货突破方向呈极度净空gamma状态,这意味着一旦价格出现方向性突破,波动将被显著放大。当前几乎没有专业投资者持有直接看多仓位,7月份看涨期权隐含波动率仅在12附近交易,做多上行空间仍是"孤独的交易"。</p><p>尽管五大预警信号指向短期回调,但高盛仍认为标普500将在2026年收于显著高于当前的水平,回调应被视为结构性买入机会。历史数据显示,自金融危机以来,凡标普500在经历逾10%回撤后重新触及前高,其后1周、1个月、3个月的平均回报分别为1.5%、5.2%和8.6%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛交易台:五大信号闪烁,美股迎来“新高后的回撤窗口”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛交易台:五大信号闪烁,美股迎来“新高后的回撤窗口”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-27 11:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在经历4月剧烈震荡后悄然回归历史高位,但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易台内部已拉响警报。</p><p>高盛交易员John Flood在周末报告中明确指出,尽管他认为标普500指数2026年全年将显著高于当前水平,但眼下有五大预警信号同步闪烁,交易台正在为近期指数层面的回撤做准备。</p><p>与此同时,另一位高盛交易员Brian Garrett也在其"周末备忘"报告中记录了对冲基金大规模降杠杆的异常动向。但两人均认为,若回撤发生,应将其视为买入机会。</p><p>这一警示发出的时间节点颇为微妙——本周将是年内最繁忙的一周,美联储与日本央行均将公布利率决议,标普500成分股中约44%的市值将在本周披露财报,包括周三盘后的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>,以及周四盘后的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>。</p><h2 id=\"id_2045705129\">信号一:对冲基金急踩刹车,七个月最大单周降杠杆</h2><p>高盛大宗经纪数据显示,上周整体总交易活动为13周以来首次下降,美股名义降杠杆规模为7个月(2025年9月)以来最大,主要由风险平仓驱动。从板块看,消费可选与科技板块的降杠杆力度最为激进,为近五年第三大单周降杠杆。</p><p>Flood指出,这是五大预警信号中的第一个:<strong>宏观空头对冲被大规模回补后,总杠杆率已明显收缩。</strong>美国上市ETF空头上周再度减少1.4%,月内累计下降21.5%,信用、信息技术及小盘股ETF的回补领跑。</p><p>Garrett将对冲基金的净敞口形容为"全年维持在正负53%区间内相对克制",并将此定性为"在'未知的未知'事件频发的市场环境下审慎的风险管理"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b5b48177ce82221af34e67ccd15efd2\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"262\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1873597875\">信号二:月末养老金再平衡压力创历史纪录</h2><p>第二个信号来自被动卖盘。高盛估算,<strong>4月月末养老金再平衡将产生约250亿美元的美股卖出需求</strong>,位列2000年以来所有卖出估算的前15大之列。若剔除季度到期因素(同时包含月度与季度再平衡),这将是有史以来最大的单月卖出估算。</p><p>以绝对金额衡量,此次250亿美元的卖出规模在过去三年所有买卖估算中位于第83百分位,若追溯至2000年1月则位于第92百分位。历史上可比的非季度卖出估算依次为:2020年11月与4月各约200亿美元、2025年5月约190亿美元、2022年10月约180亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/02305715d3986c5f47cc530267dbe7bd\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"425\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3140141738\">信号三:CTA买盘耗尽,转为潜在卖出方</h2><p>第三个信号指向趋势追踪策略(CTA)。高盛期货交易台数据显示,自4月以来,CTA群体是驱动全球股市上涨最重要的资金力量,月内已累计买入约530亿美元全球股票,本月仅标普500一项便净买入约320亿美元(上周买入230亿美元)。</p><p><strong>然而,这一买盘动能计划已告终结。</strong>Flood指出,这是逾一个月以来CTA首次不再是标普500的净买入方——在盘面平稳时小幅偏向卖出,若市场出现下行,则将形成更为显著的供给压力。这意味着此前持续托底的最大边际买入方已经"满仓踏步",市场失去了一个重要的自动稳定器。</p><h2 id=\"id_2754401358\">信号四:市场广度极度恶化,新高背后暗藏隐忧</h2><p>第四个信号揭示出表面繁荣之下的结构性隐忧。上周五标普500创下历史收盘新高,但当日市场广度为有史以来创新高时第二差的纪录:<strong>324只成分股收跌,净广度读数为-148。</strong>唯一更差的纪录出现在2025年10月,当时标普500创新高当日有80%的成分股下跌。</p><p>市场宽度的严重分化意味着此轮上涨高度集中于少数权重股,整体市场的参与度已大幅萎缩。此类结构在历史上往往是高位震荡或回调的先行指标。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1a519c45bfd65064627c5ff025c333d\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1495560928\">信号五:情绪指标进入“拉伸区间”,半导体涨势引发警惕</h2><p>第五个信号来自高盛美国股票情绪指标:<strong>投资者仓位已显示出"拉伸"特征。</strong>从整体情绪框架看,仓位结构仍处于相对偏高的状态。</p><p>与此同时,Flood特别点名半导体板块的极端走势。费城半导体指数(SOX)已连续上涨18个交易日,创有史以来最长连涨纪录,周五收盘较200日均线高出约50%——这是自2000年泡沫顶峰以来偏离200日均线最极端的一次(彼时SOX曾较200日均线高出逾100%)。这一走势是市场对AI算力消耗与营收变现关联度的信心增强,以及AI复合体新一轮产能约束担忧。</p><p>从衍生品市场看,标普500的gamma仓位处于罕见区域,做市商对现货突破方向呈极度净空gamma状态,这意味着一旦价格出现方向性突破,波动将被显著放大。当前几乎没有专业投资者持有直接看多仓位,7月份看涨期权隐含波动率仅在12附近交易,做多上行空间仍是"孤独的交易"。</p><p>尽管五大预警信号指向短期回调,但高盛仍认为标普500将在2026年收于显著高于当前的水平,回调应被视为结构性买入机会。历史数据显示,自金融危机以来,凡标普500在经历逾10%回撤后重新触及前高,其后1周、1个月、3个月的平均回报分别为1.5%、5.2%和8.6%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global 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SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770950","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2630835622","content_text":"标普500指数在经历4月剧烈震荡后悄然回归历史高位,但高盛交易台内部已拉响警报。高盛交易员John Flood在周末报告中明确指出,尽管他认为标普500指数2026年全年将显著高于当前水平,但眼下有五大预警信号同步闪烁,交易台正在为近期指数层面的回撤做准备。与此同时,另一位高盛交易员Brian Garrett也在其\"周末备忘\"报告中记录了对冲基金大规模降杠杆的异常动向。但两人均认为,若回撤发生,应将其视为买入机会。这一警示发出的时间节点颇为微妙——本周将是年内最繁忙的一周,美联储与日本央行均将公布利率决议,标普500成分股中约44%的市值将在本周披露财报,包括周三盘后的谷歌、微软、亚马逊、Meta,以及周四盘后的苹果。信号一:对冲基金急踩刹车,七个月最大单周降杠杆高盛大宗经纪数据显示,上周整体总交易活动为13周以来首次下降,美股名义降杠杆规模为7个月(2025年9月)以来最大,主要由风险平仓驱动。从板块看,消费可选与科技板块的降杠杆力度最为激进,为近五年第三大单周降杠杆。Flood指出,这是五大预警信号中的第一个:宏观空头对冲被大规模回补后,总杠杆率已明显收缩。美国上市ETF空头上周再度减少1.4%,月内累计下降21.5%,信用、信息技术及小盘股ETF的回补领跑。Garrett将对冲基金的净敞口形容为\"全年维持在正负53%区间内相对克制\",并将此定性为\"在'未知的未知'事件频发的市场环境下审慎的风险管理\"。信号二:月末养老金再平衡压力创历史纪录第二个信号来自被动卖盘。高盛估算,4月月末养老金再平衡将产生约250亿美元的美股卖出需求,位列2000年以来所有卖出估算的前15大之列。若剔除季度到期因素(同时包含月度与季度再平衡),这将是有史以来最大的单月卖出估算。以绝对金额衡量,此次250亿美元的卖出规模在过去三年所有买卖估算中位于第83百分位,若追溯至2000年1月则位于第92百分位。历史上可比的非季度卖出估算依次为:2020年11月与4月各约200亿美元、2025年5月约190亿美元、2022年10月约180亿美元。信号三:CTA买盘耗尽,转为潜在卖出方第三个信号指向趋势追踪策略(CTA)。高盛期货交易台数据显示,自4月以来,CTA群体是驱动全球股市上涨最重要的资金力量,月内已累计买入约530亿美元全球股票,本月仅标普500一项便净买入约320亿美元(上周买入230亿美元)。然而,这一买盘动能计划已告终结。Flood指出,这是逾一个月以来CTA首次不再是标普500的净买入方——在盘面平稳时小幅偏向卖出,若市场出现下行,则将形成更为显著的供给压力。这意味着此前持续托底的最大边际买入方已经\"满仓踏步\",市场失去了一个重要的自动稳定器。信号四:市场广度极度恶化,新高背后暗藏隐忧第四个信号揭示出表面繁荣之下的结构性隐忧。上周五标普500创下历史收盘新高,但当日市场广度为有史以来创新高时第二差的纪录:324只成分股收跌,净广度读数为-148。唯一更差的纪录出现在2025年10月,当时标普500创新高当日有80%的成分股下跌。市场宽度的严重分化意味着此轮上涨高度集中于少数权重股,整体市场的参与度已大幅萎缩。此类结构在历史上往往是高位震荡或回调的先行指标。信号五:情绪指标进入“拉伸区间”,半导体涨势引发警惕第五个信号来自高盛美国股票情绪指标:投资者仓位已显示出\"拉伸\"特征。从整体情绪框架看,仓位结构仍处于相对偏高的状态。与此同时,Flood特别点名半导体板块的极端走势。费城半导体指数(SOX)已连续上涨18个交易日,创有史以来最长连涨纪录,周五收盘较200日均线高出约50%——这是自2000年泡沫顶峰以来偏离200日均线最极端的一次(彼时SOX曾较200日均线高出逾100%)。这一走势是市场对AI算力消耗与营收变现关联度的信心增强,以及AI复合体新一轮产能约束担忧。从衍生品市场看,标普500的gamma仓位处于罕见区域,做市商对现货突破方向呈极度净空gamma状态,这意味着一旦价格出现方向性突破,波动将被显著放大。当前几乎没有专业投资者持有直接看多仓位,7月份看涨期权隐含波动率仅在12附近交易,做多上行空间仍是\"孤独的交易\"。尽管五大预警信号指向短期回调,但高盛仍认为标普500将在2026年收于显著高于当前的水平,回调应被视为结构性买入机会。历史数据显示,自金融危机以来,凡标普500在经历逾10%回撤后重新触及前高,其后1周、1个月、3个月的平均回报分别为1.5%、5.2%和8.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GSX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558080947504288,"gmtCreate":1777282016182,"gmtModify":1777282018768,"author":{"id":"4203929645427010","authorId":"4203929645427010","name":"老雷唯微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26121a8668e93a57f493587b69c73fd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203929645427010","idStr":"4203929645427010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558080947504288","repostId":"1104632424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104632424","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777277883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104632424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-27 16:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"老虎暗盘|曦智科技暴涨超300%,被称为“全球AI硅光芯片第一股”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104632424","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"全球首家实现光电混合算力大规模部署。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月27日周一, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01879\">曦智科技-P</a> 开启暗盘交易,截至发稿暴涨超300%,不计手续费每手赚超8000港元。公司被称为“全球AI硅光芯片第一股”。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料,曦智科技是全球首家实现光电混合算力大规模部署的公司。按2025年收入计,该公司以88.3%的市场份额在中国独立Scale-up光互连解决方案供应商排名第一,也是市场上唯一能够提供集成式大规模Scale-up光互连解决方案的独立供应商。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9651645f32a528b2a2d939034160d53c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"359\"/></p><p>2024及2025连续两年,公司光计算芯片累计出货量均位居全球第一。该公司收入于2023-2025年从0.38亿元增至1.06亿元,复合增速67%。过去两年,该公司两大业务线产品商业化处于快速爬升阶段,2026年人工智能+赛道驱动算力需求井喷式增长,叠加市场稀缺性及其强大的产品力,将驱动公司业绩规模化爆发。</p><p>曦智科技被热烈追捧背后,离不开多家重磅基石加持,包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\" title=\"阿里巴巴\" class=\"\">阿里巴巴</a>、中移资本、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\" title=\"联想\" class=\"\">联想</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00763\" title=\"中兴\" class=\"\">中兴</a>等算力及通讯产业链巨头,亦覆盖GIC、BaillieGifford、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\" title=\"贝莱德\" class=\"\">贝莱德</a>、富达国际、施罗德、淡马锡、瑞银等国际主权基金和美欧一线长线基金,并汇聚了高瓴、景林、CPE等国内头部私募,3W、Aspex等科技行业多策略基金以及平安资管、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01776\" title=\"广发\" class=\"\">广发</a>公募、工银理财等主流投资力量,合计20家基石投资者合计认购约16.44亿港元发售股份,占发行总量的68%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎暗盘|曦智科技暴涨超300%,被称为“全球AI硅光芯片第一股”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎暗盘|曦智科技暴涨超300%,被称为“全球AI硅光芯片第一股”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-27 16:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月27日周一, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01879\">曦智科技-P</a> 开启暗盘交易,截至发稿暴涨超300%,不计手续费每手赚超8000港元。公司被称为“全球AI硅光芯片第一股”。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料,曦智科技是全球首家实现光电混合算力大规模部署的公司。按2025年收入计,该公司以88.3%的市场份额在中国独立Scale-up光互连解决方案供应商排名第一,也是市场上唯一能够提供集成式大规模Scale-up光互连解决方案的独立供应商。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9651645f32a528b2a2d939034160d53c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"359\"/></p><p>2024及2025连续两年,公司光计算芯片累计出货量均位居全球第一。该公司收入于2023-2025年从0.38亿元增至1.06亿元,复合增速67%。过去两年,该公司两大业务线产品商业化处于快速爬升阶段,2026年人工智能+赛道驱动算力需求井喷式增长,叠加市场稀缺性及其强大的产品力,将驱动公司业绩规模化爆发。</p><p>曦智科技被热烈追捧背后,离不开多家重磅基石加持,包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\" title=\"阿里巴巴\" class=\"\">阿里巴巴</a>、中移资本、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\" title=\"联想\" class=\"\">联想</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00763\" title=\"中兴\" class=\"\">中兴</a>等算力及通讯产业链巨头,亦覆盖GIC、BaillieGifford、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\" title=\"贝莱德\" class=\"\">贝莱德</a>、富达国际、施罗德、淡马锡、瑞银等国际主权基金和美欧一线长线基金,并汇聚了高瓴、景林、CPE等国内头部私募,3W、Aspex等科技行业多策略基金以及平安资管、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01776\" title=\"广发\" class=\"\">广发</a>公募、工银理财等主流投资力量,合计20家基石投资者合计认购约16.44亿港元发售股份,占发行总量的68%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd9c0eb70e9c8cf36ea682f4525e586","relate_stocks":{"01879":"曦智科技-P"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104632424","content_text":"4月27日周一, 曦智科技-P 开启暗盘交易,截至发稿暴涨超300%,不计手续费每手赚超8000港元。公司被称为“全球AI硅光芯片第一股”。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料,曦智科技是全球首家实现光电混合算力大规模部署的公司。按2025年收入计,该公司以88.3%的市场份额在中国独立Scale-up光互连解决方案供应商排名第一,也是市场上唯一能够提供集成式大规模Scale-up光互连解决方案的独立供应商。2024及2025连续两年,公司光计算芯片累计出货量均位居全球第一。该公司收入于2023-2025年从0.38亿元增至1.06亿元,复合增速67%。过去两年,该公司两大业务线产品商业化处于快速爬升阶段,2026年人工智能+赛道驱动算力需求井喷式增长,叠加市场稀缺性及其强大的产品力,将驱动公司业绩规模化爆发。曦智科技被热烈追捧背后,离不开多家重磅基石加持,包括阿里巴巴、中移资本、联想、中兴等算力及通讯产业链巨头,亦覆盖GIC、BaillieGifford、贝莱德、富达国际、施罗德、淡马锡、瑞银等国际主权基金和美欧一线长线基金,并汇聚了高瓴、景林、CPE等国内头部私募,3W、Aspex等科技行业多策略基金以及平安资管、广发公募、工银理财等主流投资力量,合计20家基石投资者合计认购约16.44亿港元发售股份,占发行总量的68%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01879":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557636870911192,"gmtCreate":1777173518548,"gmtModify":1777173520803,"author":{"id":"4203929645427010","authorId":"4203929645427010","name":"老雷唯微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26121a8668e93a57f493587b69c73fd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203929645427010","idStr":"4203929645427010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557636870911192","repostId":"2630803922","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2630803922","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777262508,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2630803922?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-27 12:01","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"夜盘异动 | 亚马逊持股的X-Energy续涨15%,IPO首日大涨近27%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2630803922","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"核电服务商X-Energy周五纳斯达克上市首日大涨27%,收报29.20美元,市值达115亿美元。受益于AI电力需求爆发,其IPO定价超预期,募资逾10亿美元。亚马逊作为大股东与客户已承诺5吉瓦订单。尽管2025年亏损且商业化尚需数年,但Ken Griffin及Ares等早期投资者已获数倍账面浮盈。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月27日,核电概念股热潮未退,小型模块化核反应堆开发商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XE\">X-Energy</a>上周五在纳斯达克挂牌首日即大涨近27%,收报29.20美元,今日夜盘时段续涨15%。这家公司不到三年前曾因无人问津而放弃上市,如今借助人工智能驱动的电力需求浪潮完成华丽转身。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8fe1cd18fe4b13dc788e1d4b446935e\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"148\"/></p><p>此次上市令多位知名早期投资者账面大获丰收。对冲基金巨头Citadel创始人Ken Griffin约一年半前投入1亿美元,按上周五收盘价计算账面浮盈逾3亿美元;资产管理公司Ares Management投入逾1.6亿美元,账面回报预计超过4倍。<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>目前是X-Energy最大股东,持股比例约24.9%,</strong>其所持股份按收盘价计算较IPO发行价增值逾4亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_858226040\">IPO超额认购,定价大幅高于预期区间</h2><p>X-Energy上周四晚间完成定价,共出售4425万股,最终发行价23美元,高于此前16至19美元的预期区间上限。公司总股本约3.953亿股,按发行价计算市值约90.9亿美元。首日收盘后,市值进一步扩大至约115亿美元。</p><p>公司CEO J. Clay Sell在上市当日表示:"我认为投资者对我们获得一线客户认可这一点印象深刻,我们拥有资产负债表实力雄厚的优质合作伙伴。"</p><p>此次IPO受到机构和散户的双重追捧。X-Energy的IPO开盘价高达30.11美元,显示不仅早期获配的机构投资者,普通公众同样积极追入。</p><h2 id=\"id_2976178865\">Griffin与Ares:一次演讲引发的高回报投资</h2><p>这场IPO背后,Ken Griffin与Ares Management的入股经历颇具戏剧性。据媒体援引知情人士透露,Griffin于2023年在新加坡发表演讲,阐述核能对于满足新兴数据中心电力需求的重要性。Ares Management联合创始人David Kaplan获悉此事后,代表X-Energy寻求资金的银行家随即与Griffin取得联系。</p><p>Griffin于2024年秋季以1亿美元入股X-Energy。按周五收盘价计算,其账面浮盈逾3亿美元。Ares方面,由Kaplan与合伙人Allyson Satin主导的这笔投资最终账面回报超过4倍。</p><p>此外,Steve Cohen旗下Point72、Jane Street、Cathie Wood旗下ARK Invest以及密歇根大学均参与了投资,均将受益于本次IPO。</p><h2 id=\"id_3064495721\">从SPAC失败到AI电力宠儿</h2><p>X-Energy由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>业资深人士Kamal "Kam" Ghaffarian于2009年创立,总部位于马里兰州,多年来专注于开发为工厂等工业设施供电的工业级模块化核反应堆。2022年,公司与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOW\">陶氏化学</a>(Dow)签署协议,计划在其德克萨斯州Seadrift工厂安装核反应堆,但彼时投资者普遍担忧其潜在市场过于有限。</p><p>2022年12月,Ares以3000万美元领投,联合两家对冲基金启动上市计划,拟通过与Ares旗下的空白支票公司合并借壳上市。然而,随着市场对特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)热情骤降,新股发行审慎情绪蔓延,这一合并计划于2023年10月宣告搁浅。此后,Ares继续追加融资,陪同公司熬过低谷。</p><p><strong>AI算力需求爆发成为X-Energy命运的转折点。</strong>2024年,亚马逊成为X-Energy的股东兼客户,并就超过5吉瓦的新核能供应作出承诺。包括亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>在内的超大规模云计算巨头为支撑庞大数据中心运营,对电力的渴求与日俱增,核能由此迅速升温。</p><h2 id=\"id_921839714\">商业落地进展与竞争格局</h2><p>与大多数尚处概念阶段的早期核能企业相比,X-Energy的突出优势在于已拥有实质性商业订单。<strong>公司客户包括亚马逊、陶氏化学以及英国能源服务商Centrica,三者均已达成供电协议。</strong></p><p>J. Clay Sell表示,公司预计今年将获得首座反应堆的监管许可,该反应堆将建于陶氏化学德克萨斯州工厂,预计2030年代初正式投入运营。此后,公司将在华盛顿州为亚马逊建造反应堆。</p><p>不过,X-Energy距离完成首座反应堆并取得全部监管批准仍需数年时间,且2025年净亏损达3.889亿美元,营收及资助收入约为1.091亿美元。公司面临来自比尔·盖茨支持的TerraPower、Oklo以及NuScale Power等竞争对手的压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_2664779324\">IPO首日大涨未必预示长期回报</h2><p>对于有意追入的个人投资者,市场数据提供了一些冷静参照。据LPL Financial研究主管Thomas Shipp对过去30年约1500宗IPO的分析,以首日收盘价买入的中位数回报为负4.7%,其中53.9%的样本出现亏损,平均损失39.2%;相比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数,中位数超额表现为负12.5%。</p><p>Shipp在研究报告中写道:"对投资者而言,结论并非要完全回避IPO,而是要以审慎态度参与,并做好承受较大波动的心理准备。"</p><p>X-Energy的上市标志着核电IPO市场再添新标的。投资者在享受核能叙事与AI电力需求红利的同时,也需正视技术落地周期漫长、监管不确定性犹存以及上市初期股价高波动等现实风险。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>夜盘异动 | 亚马逊持股的X-Energy续涨15%,IPO首日大涨近27%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜盘异动 | 亚马逊持股的X-Energy续涨15%,IPO首日大涨近27%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-27 12:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月27日,核电概念股热潮未退,小型模块化核反应堆开发商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XE\">X-Energy</a>上周五在纳斯达克挂牌首日即大涨近27%,收报29.20美元,今日夜盘时段续涨15%。这家公司不到三年前曾因无人问津而放弃上市,如今借助人工智能驱动的电力需求浪潮完成华丽转身。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8fe1cd18fe4b13dc788e1d4b446935e\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"148\"/></p><p>此次上市令多位知名早期投资者账面大获丰收。对冲基金巨头Citadel创始人Ken Griffin约一年半前投入1亿美元,按上周五收盘价计算账面浮盈逾3亿美元;资产管理公司Ares Management投入逾1.6亿美元,账面回报预计超过4倍。<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>目前是X-Energy最大股东,持股比例约24.9%,</strong>其所持股份按收盘价计算较IPO发行价增值逾4亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_858226040\">IPO超额认购,定价大幅高于预期区间</h2><p>X-Energy上周四晚间完成定价,共出售4425万股,最终发行价23美元,高于此前16至19美元的预期区间上限。公司总股本约3.953亿股,按发行价计算市值约90.9亿美元。首日收盘后,市值进一步扩大至约115亿美元。</p><p>公司CEO J. Clay Sell在上市当日表示:"我认为投资者对我们获得一线客户认可这一点印象深刻,我们拥有资产负债表实力雄厚的优质合作伙伴。"</p><p>此次IPO受到机构和散户的双重追捧。X-Energy的IPO开盘价高达30.11美元,显示不仅早期获配的机构投资者,普通公众同样积极追入。</p><h2 id=\"id_2976178865\">Griffin与Ares:一次演讲引发的高回报投资</h2><p>这场IPO背后,Ken Griffin与Ares Management的入股经历颇具戏剧性。据媒体援引知情人士透露,Griffin于2023年在新加坡发表演讲,阐述核能对于满足新兴数据中心电力需求的重要性。Ares Management联合创始人David Kaplan获悉此事后,代表X-Energy寻求资金的银行家随即与Griffin取得联系。</p><p>Griffin于2024年秋季以1亿美元入股X-Energy。按周五收盘价计算,其账面浮盈逾3亿美元。Ares方面,由Kaplan与合伙人Allyson Satin主导的这笔投资最终账面回报超过4倍。</p><p>此外,Steve Cohen旗下Point72、Jane Street、Cathie Wood旗下ARK Invest以及密歇根大学均参与了投资,均将受益于本次IPO。</p><h2 id=\"id_3064495721\">从SPAC失败到AI电力宠儿</h2><p>X-Energy由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>业资深人士Kamal "Kam" Ghaffarian于2009年创立,总部位于马里兰州,多年来专注于开发为工厂等工业设施供电的工业级模块化核反应堆。2022年,公司与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOW\">陶氏化学</a>(Dow)签署协议,计划在其德克萨斯州Seadrift工厂安装核反应堆,但彼时投资者普遍担忧其潜在市场过于有限。</p><p>2022年12月,Ares以3000万美元领投,联合两家对冲基金启动上市计划,拟通过与Ares旗下的空白支票公司合并借壳上市。然而,随着市场对特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)热情骤降,新股发行审慎情绪蔓延,这一合并计划于2023年10月宣告搁浅。此后,Ares继续追加融资,陪同公司熬过低谷。</p><p><strong>AI算力需求爆发成为X-Energy命运的转折点。</strong>2024年,亚马逊成为X-Energy的股东兼客户,并就超过5吉瓦的新核能供应作出承诺。包括亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>在内的超大规模云计算巨头为支撑庞大数据中心运营,对电力的渴求与日俱增,核能由此迅速升温。</p><h2 id=\"id_921839714\">商业落地进展与竞争格局</h2><p>与大多数尚处概念阶段的早期核能企业相比,X-Energy的突出优势在于已拥有实质性商业订单。<strong>公司客户包括亚马逊、陶氏化学以及英国能源服务商Centrica,三者均已达成供电协议。</strong></p><p>J. Clay Sell表示,公司预计今年将获得首座反应堆的监管许可,该反应堆将建于陶氏化学德克萨斯州工厂,预计2030年代初正式投入运营。此后,公司将在华盛顿州为亚马逊建造反应堆。</p><p>不过,X-Energy距离完成首座反应堆并取得全部监管批准仍需数年时间,且2025年净亏损达3.889亿美元,营收及资助收入约为1.091亿美元。公司面临来自比尔·盖茨支持的TerraPower、Oklo以及NuScale Power等竞争对手的压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_2664779324\">IPO首日大涨未必预示长期回报</h2><p>对于有意追入的个人投资者,市场数据提供了一些冷静参照。据LPL Financial研究主管Thomas Shipp对过去30年约1500宗IPO的分析,以首日收盘价买入的中位数回报为负4.7%,其中53.9%的样本出现亏损,平均损失39.2%;相比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数,中位数超额表现为负12.5%。</p><p>Shipp在研究报告中写道:"对投资者而言,结论并非要完全回避IPO,而是要以审慎态度参与,并做好承受较大波动的心理准备。"</p><p>X-Energy的上市标志着核电IPO市场再添新标的。投资者在享受核能叙事与AI电力需求红利的同时,也需正视技术落地周期漫长、监管不确定性犹存以及上市初期股价高波动等现实风险。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/71bcfb02e4fae8339b4f9c82ac3bf5c8","relate_stocks":{"LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","IE000MB6IJN5.SGD":"RQI GLOBAL \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1035775433.USD":"AB SICAV I - 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Clay Sell在上市当日表示:\"我认为投资者对我们获得一线客户认可这一点印象深刻,我们拥有资产负债表实力雄厚的优质合作伙伴。\"此次IPO受到机构和散户的双重追捧。X-Energy的IPO开盘价高达30.11美元,显示不仅早期获配的机构投资者,普通公众同样积极追入。Griffin与Ares:一次演讲引发的高回报投资这场IPO背后,Ken Griffin与Ares Management的入股经历颇具戏剧性。据媒体援引知情人士透露,Griffin于2023年在新加坡发表演讲,阐述核能对于满足新兴数据中心电力需求的重要性。Ares Management联合创始人David Kaplan获悉此事后,代表X-Energy寻求资金的银行家随即与Griffin取得联系。Griffin于2024年秋季以1亿美元入股X-Energy。按周五收盘价计算,其账面浮盈逾3亿美元。Ares方面,由Kaplan与合伙人Allyson Satin主导的这笔投资最终账面回报超过4倍。此外,Steve Cohen旗下Point72、Jane Street、Cathie Wood旗下ARK Invest以及密歇根大学均参与了投资,均将受益于本次IPO。从SPAC失败到AI电力宠儿X-Energy由航天业资深人士Kamal \"Kam\" Ghaffarian于2009年创立,总部位于马里兰州,多年来专注于开发为工厂等工业设施供电的工业级模块化核反应堆。2022年,公司与陶氏化学(Dow)签署协议,计划在其德克萨斯州Seadrift工厂安装核反应堆,但彼时投资者普遍担忧其潜在市场过于有限。2022年12月,Ares以3000万美元领投,联合两家对冲基金启动上市计划,拟通过与Ares旗下的空白支票公司合并借壳上市。然而,随着市场对特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)热情骤降,新股发行审慎情绪蔓延,这一合并计划于2023年10月宣告搁浅。此后,Ares继续追加融资,陪同公司熬过低谷。AI算力需求爆发成为X-Energy命运的转折点。2024年,亚马逊成为X-Energy的股东兼客户,并就超过5吉瓦的新核能供应作出承诺。包括亚马逊、微软、Meta在内的超大规模云计算巨头为支撑庞大数据中心运营,对电力的渴求与日俱增,核能由此迅速升温。商业落地进展与竞争格局与大多数尚处概念阶段的早期核能企业相比,X-Energy的突出优势在于已拥有实质性商业订单。公司客户包括亚马逊、陶氏化学以及英国能源服务商Centrica,三者均已达成供电协议。J. Clay Sell表示,公司预计今年将获得首座反应堆的监管许可,该反应堆将建于陶氏化学德克萨斯州工厂,预计2030年代初正式投入运营。此后,公司将在华盛顿州为亚马逊建造反应堆。不过,X-Energy距离完成首座反应堆并取得全部监管批准仍需数年时间,且2025年净亏损达3.889亿美元,营收及资助收入约为1.091亿美元。公司面临来自比尔·盖茨支持的TerraPower、Oklo以及NuScale Power等竞争对手的压力。IPO首日大涨未必预示长期回报对于有意追入的个人投资者,市场数据提供了一些冷静参照。据LPL Financial研究主管Thomas Shipp对过去30年约1500宗IPO的分析,以首日收盘价买入的中位数回报为负4.7%,其中53.9%的样本出现亏损,平均损失39.2%;相比标普500指数,中位数超额表现为负12.5%。Shipp在研究报告中写道:\"对投资者而言,结论并非要完全回避IPO,而是要以审慎态度参与,并做好承受较大波动的心理准备。\"X-Energy的上市标志着核电IPO市场再添新标的。投资者在享受核能叙事与AI电力需求红利的同时,也需正视技术落地周期漫长、监管不确定性犹存以及上市初期股价高波动等现实风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XE":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557636339270088,"gmtCreate":1777173380448,"gmtModify":1777173382626,"author":{"id":"4203929645427010","authorId":"4203929645427010","name":"老雷唯微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26121a8668e93a57f493587b69c73fd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203929645427010","idStr":"4203929645427010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557636339270088","repostId":"2630871853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2630871853","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777159967,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2630871853?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-26 07:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"司法部撤案、沃什入场、下周FOMC——美联储换帅倒计时,“无前瞻指引”时代要来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2630871853","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"鲍威尔谢幕在即,接任者沃什欲强拆“前瞻指引”与点阵图。这意味着长达15年的全球资产定价“底座”面临崩塌。确定性溢价终结,股债汇市场即将全面“失锚”,一场波及所有资产的定价模型的风暴已悄然掀起。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>鲍威尔谢幕在即,接任者沃什欲强拆“前瞻指引”与点阵图。这意味着长达15年的全球资产定价“底座”面临崩塌。确定性溢价终结,股债汇市场即将全面“失锚”,一场波及所有资产的定价模型的风暴已悄然掀起。</p></blockquote><p>下周三,鲍威尔将走上发布会的台子,用一个没有悬念的决定——利率不动——宣布这次会议结束。</p><p>市场真正在等的不是这个决定。</p><p>周五,美国司法部撤销了对鲍威尔的刑事调查。那个一直被用来卡住特朗普提名人——凯文·沃什——的最大政治障碍,就这样撤掉了。预测市场 Kalshi 当天的数据:沃什在 5 月 15 日鲍威尔任期到期前被正式确认的概率,从 30% 跳到了 84%。</p><p>换句话说,4 月 29 日那场发布会,大概率是鲍威尔以美联储主席身份最后一次站在台上。</p><h2 id=\"id_321629496\">沃什要把底座拆掉</h2><p>4 月 21 日,沃什坐在参议院银行委员会前,说了这样一段话:“太多美联储官员,无论现任还是前任,都提前发表意见,说他们认为下次会议、下个季度、明年的利率应该在哪里。”</p><p><strong>这句话的射程,比任何一次加息或降息决定都远得多</strong>。</p><p>他在同一场听证会上明确呼吁废除“点阵图”——那张每季度公布一次、印着 19 位 FOMC 成员利率预测的图表。批评核心 PCE 是“粗略估计”。说通胀“是一种选择”,把 2021–22 年的通胀高企定性为政策失误,而非外部冲击的结果。至于每次 FOMC 后的定期发布会,他拒绝承诺继续维持:“真理的寻求比重复更重要。”</p><p>他还<strong>暗示可能减少每年的会议次数</strong>,但没有给具体数字。</p><p>前瞻指引——美联储提前告诉市场它要干什么这套机制——是伯南克在 2008 年之后建立的体系。从日历式承诺到条件化承诺,再到每次 FOMC 后的发布会、点阵图、逐字被解读的声明,这套框架在过去 15 年悄悄变成了全球资产定价的隐性底座。</p><p><strong>沃什说,他要把这个底座拆掉</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_1578918440\">鲍威尔已经开始退了</h2><p>读过今年 1 月和 3 月 FOMC 发布会记录的人,应该已经看到一些东西。</p><p>1 月 28 日,鲍威尔说:“委员会没有试图阐述何时降息、或以什么标准降息。”和他过去几年惯用的前瞻式表述相比,这句话的力度明显软了。到了 3 月 18 日,他进了一步——在被追问前瞻指引是否可能改变时,他罕见地公开说:“委员会内部目前对如何改变沟通方式缺乏共识。”</p><p>这是一个现任主席在说:我们内部讨论过这件事。</p><p>说白了,鲍威尔在离任前,已经在主动松动前瞻指引的约束力。不完全是被沃什的议程逼的,更像是他自己在有意为后继者腾出空间。两个方向奇怪地收敛在一起:一个在前任的最后几次发布会里逐步淡出,一个在听证会上已经宣布接管后要做什么。</p><p>失锚,不是从沃什上任那天开始的。</p><h2 id=\"id_3823552348\">这不只是债市的故事</h2><p>过去 15 年,“美联储会提前告诉你它要干什么”这个假设,已经被深度内化进几乎每一类资产的定价模型。</p><p>股票市场感受到的,先是估值层面的抖动。高 PE 成长股能维持当前倍数,部分前提是折现率的未来路径可以预测——当你知道利率会在哪、走向哪,现金流折现模型才能跑出一个可信的数字。沃什的框架一旦落地,这个前提就消失了。模型开始抖动的时候,成长股的估值倍数比价值股脆弱得多。这不是方向性的利率冲击,而是折现率的能见度本身出了问题,后者对估值的破坏力更持久。分水岭在于沃什给不给出替代框架:如果他上任后宣布某种“以数据为条件的情景化指引”,成长股的估值压缩幅度会比彻底沉默的情形小很多。</p><p>信用市场的脆弱性更隐蔽。企业债的再融资决策,依赖的是“我对未来三年利率路径有基本把握”。这个能见度一旦消失,信用利差需要补偿额外的不确定性溢价——而当前利差处于 25 年来的极紧水平,几乎没有缓冲空间。利差从这里开始走宽,速度不会慢。失效条件只有一个:沃什的“无前瞻指引”被参议院和市场解读为仅是沟通风格的微调,而非系统性转变。</p><p>汇率那边,情况更隐蔽。很多新兴市场央行过去十年一直把 Fed 的前瞻指引当成政策参照系——如果这个参照系突然变得不可读,本国汇率政策就更难校准,货币波动率自然上升。2013 年“缩减恐慌”时,储备较薄弱的新兴市场货币在几个月内跌了 6%–15%。当前新兴市场的外汇储备状况有所改善,但全球增长预期更弱(IMF 刚把 2026 年全球增速下调至 3.1%),这次的增长溢价更薄。</p><p>目前 MOVE 指数约为 67,低于历史均值的 75–80。债市的隐含波动率处于历史偏低位置,市场还在免费享受前瞻指引提供的确定性溢价。</p><p>“Taper Tantrum”那年,MOVE 在高峰时超过 125。那次市场在恐慌的是“QE 要削减”——方向已知,只是规模要变。这次面对的是“沟通框架本身要消失”,不确定性的来源要更根本。MOVE 向 75–80 靠拢是债市先动的信号;一旦突破 90,历史上的数据显示股票和信用市场的波动率会开始跟进。</p><h2 id=\"id_843884831\">发布会当天该怎么读</h2><p>如果沃什在 5 月 15 日前被参议院确认——当前概率 84%——4 月 29 日就是鲍威尔以主席身份最后一次面对媒体。从现在到 5 月 15 日不到三周,如果确认顺利推进,交接就是干净的:鲍威尔离任,沃什就位,没有重叠。</p><p>但在这三周里,市场不会静静等待。沃什在听证会上的表态已经足够明确,市场会把鲍威尔发布会上说的每一句话,放进沃什的议程里重新解读——不是因为两人同时在位,而是因为市场已经在为那套新框架定价了。</p><p>他不会评论沃什,不会为前瞻指引做明确辩护,也不会提前为继任者背书。他会一如既往地说“我们逐次会议做决策”,会强调“数据依赖”,会在利率决定上选择最无争议的路径。</p><p>发布会刚开始,最先动的是国债期货——市场在看他描述通胀的措辞是偏鹰还是偏鸽,这决定了沃什接手时的政策初始条件。问答环节,记者们几乎可以确定会追问“你如何看待前瞻指引改革”,那个回答值得一字一字地读。</p><p>鲍威尔越是在发布会上强调前瞻指引的价值,市场越会预期沃什会更用力地推倒它。</p><p>这场发布会的意外,藏在它没有说的那些话里。</p><h2 id=\"id_1366853889\">接下来需要盯的几件事</h2><p>参议院投票时间线是第一个分水岭。DOJ 撤案解除了参议员 Tillis 的最大障碍,但他本人在撤案之后的公开表态仍然是信息缺口。如果银行委员会在 5 月第一周顺利通过,全体参议院预计在 5 月 11–14 周投票——若在这个窗口内完成,5 月 15 日鲍威尔离任当天沃什就位;若延迟,鲍威尔将以代理主席身份再多主持一次发布会,时间落在 6 月 16–17 日。两种结果对应的市场逻辑截然不同:前者让“无前瞻指引”的定价预期集中爆发在 5 月第二周;后者则会把这个压力分散拉长,给市场多一段喘息的时间。</p><p>沃什确认后的首次公开表态,比确认本身更重要。交接完成后,不确定性的性质会改变——从“谁在掌舵”变成“他是否真的会执行听证会上说的那些事”。历史上没有主要央行在没有任何替代方案的情况下完全废除前瞻指引。澳洲联储 2021 年放弃收益率曲线控制时也设置了过渡期。如果沃什上来宣布某种“以数据为条件的情景化指引”,市场冲击会显著收窄;如果他真的选择完全沉默,那才是“无信号时代”的正式开始。</p><p>MOVE 指数是最直接的观测窗口。67 向 75–80 靠拢,债市先动;突破 90,股票和信用市场的波动率会跟进。每次 FOMC 之间的数据冲击幅度也值得盯。</p><p>全球央行的跟进动向不是尾部风险,是需要提前校准的变量。欧央行、日本央行过去十年把美联储的政策路径当成重要的外部参照。这个参照系一旦变得不可读,各国货币政策的分歧会扩大,跨市场传导的逻辑也会变得更复杂——汇率波动率上升,是这个链条里最容易被低估的传导路径。</p><p><strong>6 月 16–17 日的 FOMC 是终极验证节点。那很可能是沃什主持的第一次会议——第一份没有点阵图的声明,第一场可能改变格式或频率的发布会。所有关于“体制变革”的判断,都要在那里对账。</strong></p><p>当前市场的主流预期,是把这一切当成人事新闻在处理——等沃什真正上任了再说。<strong>但失锚是一个过程,不是一个时点,而这个过程,从下周三就已经开始了。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>司法部撤案、沃什入场、下周FOMC——美联储换帅倒计时,“无前瞻指引”时代要来了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n司法部撤案、沃什入场、下周FOMC——美联储换帅倒计时,“无前瞻指引”时代要来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-26 07:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>鲍威尔谢幕在即,接任者沃什欲强拆“前瞻指引”与点阵图。这意味着长达15年的全球资产定价“底座”面临崩塌。确定性溢价终结,股债汇市场即将全面“失锚”,一场波及所有资产的定价模型的风暴已悄然掀起。</p></blockquote><p>下周三,鲍威尔将走上发布会的台子,用一个没有悬念的决定——利率不动——宣布这次会议结束。</p><p>市场真正在等的不是这个决定。</p><p>周五,美国司法部撤销了对鲍威尔的刑事调查。那个一直被用来卡住特朗普提名人——凯文·沃什——的最大政治障碍,就这样撤掉了。预测市场 Kalshi 当天的数据:沃什在 5 月 15 日鲍威尔任期到期前被正式确认的概率,从 30% 跳到了 84%。</p><p>换句话说,4 月 29 日那场发布会,大概率是鲍威尔以美联储主席身份最后一次站在台上。</p><h2 id=\"id_321629496\">沃什要把底座拆掉</h2><p>4 月 21 日,沃什坐在参议院银行委员会前,说了这样一段话:“太多美联储官员,无论现任还是前任,都提前发表意见,说他们认为下次会议、下个季度、明年的利率应该在哪里。”</p><p><strong>这句话的射程,比任何一次加息或降息决定都远得多</strong>。</p><p>他在同一场听证会上明确呼吁废除“点阵图”——那张每季度公布一次、印着 19 位 FOMC 成员利率预测的图表。批评核心 PCE 是“粗略估计”。说通胀“是一种选择”,把 2021–22 年的通胀高企定性为政策失误,而非外部冲击的结果。至于每次 FOMC 后的定期发布会,他拒绝承诺继续维持:“真理的寻求比重复更重要。”</p><p>他还<strong>暗示可能减少每年的会议次数</strong>,但没有给具体数字。</p><p>前瞻指引——美联储提前告诉市场它要干什么这套机制——是伯南克在 2008 年之后建立的体系。从日历式承诺到条件化承诺,再到每次 FOMC 后的发布会、点阵图、逐字被解读的声明,这套框架在过去 15 年悄悄变成了全球资产定价的隐性底座。</p><p><strong>沃什说,他要把这个底座拆掉</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_1578918440\">鲍威尔已经开始退了</h2><p>读过今年 1 月和 3 月 FOMC 发布会记录的人,应该已经看到一些东西。</p><p>1 月 28 日,鲍威尔说:“委员会没有试图阐述何时降息、或以什么标准降息。”和他过去几年惯用的前瞻式表述相比,这句话的力度明显软了。到了 3 月 18 日,他进了一步——在被追问前瞻指引是否可能改变时,他罕见地公开说:“委员会内部目前对如何改变沟通方式缺乏共识。”</p><p>这是一个现任主席在说:我们内部讨论过这件事。</p><p>说白了,鲍威尔在离任前,已经在主动松动前瞻指引的约束力。不完全是被沃什的议程逼的,更像是他自己在有意为后继者腾出空间。两个方向奇怪地收敛在一起:一个在前任的最后几次发布会里逐步淡出,一个在听证会上已经宣布接管后要做什么。</p><p>失锚,不是从沃什上任那天开始的。</p><h2 id=\"id_3823552348\">这不只是债市的故事</h2><p>过去 15 年,“美联储会提前告诉你它要干什么”这个假设,已经被深度内化进几乎每一类资产的定价模型。</p><p>股票市场感受到的,先是估值层面的抖动。高 PE 成长股能维持当前倍数,部分前提是折现率的未来路径可以预测——当你知道利率会在哪、走向哪,现金流折现模型才能跑出一个可信的数字。沃什的框架一旦落地,这个前提就消失了。模型开始抖动的时候,成长股的估值倍数比价值股脆弱得多。这不是方向性的利率冲击,而是折现率的能见度本身出了问题,后者对估值的破坏力更持久。分水岭在于沃什给不给出替代框架:如果他上任后宣布某种“以数据为条件的情景化指引”,成长股的估值压缩幅度会比彻底沉默的情形小很多。</p><p>信用市场的脆弱性更隐蔽。企业债的再融资决策,依赖的是“我对未来三年利率路径有基本把握”。这个能见度一旦消失,信用利差需要补偿额外的不确定性溢价——而当前利差处于 25 年来的极紧水平,几乎没有缓冲空间。利差从这里开始走宽,速度不会慢。失效条件只有一个:沃什的“无前瞻指引”被参议院和市场解读为仅是沟通风格的微调,而非系统性转变。</p><p>汇率那边,情况更隐蔽。很多新兴市场央行过去十年一直把 Fed 的前瞻指引当成政策参照系——如果这个参照系突然变得不可读,本国汇率政策就更难校准,货币波动率自然上升。2013 年“缩减恐慌”时,储备较薄弱的新兴市场货币在几个月内跌了 6%–15%。当前新兴市场的外汇储备状况有所改善,但全球增长预期更弱(IMF 刚把 2026 年全球增速下调至 3.1%),这次的增长溢价更薄。</p><p>目前 MOVE 指数约为 67,低于历史均值的 75–80。债市的隐含波动率处于历史偏低位置,市场还在免费享受前瞻指引提供的确定性溢价。</p><p>“Taper Tantrum”那年,MOVE 在高峰时超过 125。那次市场在恐慌的是“QE 要削减”——方向已知,只是规模要变。这次面对的是“沟通框架本身要消失”,不确定性的来源要更根本。MOVE 向 75–80 靠拢是债市先动的信号;一旦突破 90,历史上的数据显示股票和信用市场的波动率会开始跟进。</p><h2 id=\"id_843884831\">发布会当天该怎么读</h2><p>如果沃什在 5 月 15 日前被参议院确认——当前概率 84%——4 月 29 日就是鲍威尔以主席身份最后一次面对媒体。从现在到 5 月 15 日不到三周,如果确认顺利推进,交接就是干净的:鲍威尔离任,沃什就位,没有重叠。</p><p>但在这三周里,市场不会静静等待。沃什在听证会上的表态已经足够明确,市场会把鲍威尔发布会上说的每一句话,放进沃什的议程里重新解读——不是因为两人同时在位,而是因为市场已经在为那套新框架定价了。</p><p>他不会评论沃什,不会为前瞻指引做明确辩护,也不会提前为继任者背书。他会一如既往地说“我们逐次会议做决策”,会强调“数据依赖”,会在利率决定上选择最无争议的路径。</p><p>发布会刚开始,最先动的是国债期货——市场在看他描述通胀的措辞是偏鹰还是偏鸽,这决定了沃什接手时的政策初始条件。问答环节,记者们几乎可以确定会追问“你如何看待前瞻指引改革”,那个回答值得一字一字地读。</p><p>鲍威尔越是在发布会上强调前瞻指引的价值,市场越会预期沃什会更用力地推倒它。</p><p>这场发布会的意外,藏在它没有说的那些话里。</p><h2 id=\"id_1366853889\">接下来需要盯的几件事</h2><p>参议院投票时间线是第一个分水岭。DOJ 撤案解除了参议员 Tillis 的最大障碍,但他本人在撤案之后的公开表态仍然是信息缺口。如果银行委员会在 5 月第一周顺利通过,全体参议院预计在 5 月 11–14 周投票——若在这个窗口内完成,5 月 15 日鲍威尔离任当天沃什就位;若延迟,鲍威尔将以代理主席身份再多主持一次发布会,时间落在 6 月 16–17 日。两种结果对应的市场逻辑截然不同:前者让“无前瞻指引”的定价预期集中爆发在 5 月第二周;后者则会把这个压力分散拉长,给市场多一段喘息的时间。</p><p>沃什确认后的首次公开表态,比确认本身更重要。交接完成后,不确定性的性质会改变——从“谁在掌舵”变成“他是否真的会执行听证会上说的那些事”。历史上没有主要央行在没有任何替代方案的情况下完全废除前瞻指引。澳洲联储 2021 年放弃收益率曲线控制时也设置了过渡期。如果沃什上来宣布某种“以数据为条件的情景化指引”,市场冲击会显著收窄;如果他真的选择完全沉默,那才是“无信号时代”的正式开始。</p><p>MOVE 指数是最直接的观测窗口。67 向 75–80 靠拢,债市先动;突破 90,股票和信用市场的波动率会跟进。每次 FOMC 之间的数据冲击幅度也值得盯。</p><p>全球央行的跟进动向不是尾部风险,是需要提前校准的变量。欧央行、日本央行过去十年把美联储的政策路径当成重要的外部参照。这个参照系一旦变得不可读,各国货币政策的分歧会扩大,跨市场传导的逻辑也会变得更复杂——汇率波动率上升,是这个链条里最容易被低估的传导路径。</p><p><strong>6 月 16–17 日的 FOMC 是终极验证节点。那很可能是沃什主持的第一次会议——第一份没有点阵图的声明,第一场可能改变格式或频率的发布会。所有关于“体制变革”的判断,都要在那里对账。</strong></p><p>当前市场的主流预期,是把这一切当成人事新闻在处理——等沃什真正上任了再说。<strong>但失锚是一个过程,不是一个时点,而这个过程,从下周三就已经开始了。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50fff36a918da88f9daa6348bbd77d7c","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","PBDC":"Putnam Bdc Income ETF","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","ZROZ":"PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S","BOND":"Pimco Total Return ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year 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ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770883","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2630871853","content_text":"鲍威尔谢幕在即,接任者沃什欲强拆“前瞻指引”与点阵图。这意味着长达15年的全球资产定价“底座”面临崩塌。确定性溢价终结,股债汇市场即将全面“失锚”,一场波及所有资产的定价模型的风暴已悄然掀起。下周三,鲍威尔将走上发布会的台子,用一个没有悬念的决定——利率不动——宣布这次会议结束。市场真正在等的不是这个决定。周五,美国司法部撤销了对鲍威尔的刑事调查。那个一直被用来卡住特朗普提名人——凯文·沃什——的最大政治障碍,就这样撤掉了。预测市场 Kalshi 当天的数据:沃什在 5 月 15 日鲍威尔任期到期前被正式确认的概率,从 30% 跳到了 84%。换句话说,4 月 29 日那场发布会,大概率是鲍威尔以美联储主席身份最后一次站在台上。沃什要把底座拆掉4 月 21 日,沃什坐在参议院银行委员会前,说了这样一段话:“太多美联储官员,无论现任还是前任,都提前发表意见,说他们认为下次会议、下个季度、明年的利率应该在哪里。”这句话的射程,比任何一次加息或降息决定都远得多。他在同一场听证会上明确呼吁废除“点阵图”——那张每季度公布一次、印着 19 位 FOMC 成员利率预测的图表。批评核心 PCE 是“粗略估计”。说通胀“是一种选择”,把 2021–22 年的通胀高企定性为政策失误,而非外部冲击的结果。至于每次 FOMC 后的定期发布会,他拒绝承诺继续维持:“真理的寻求比重复更重要。”他还暗示可能减少每年的会议次数,但没有给具体数字。前瞻指引——美联储提前告诉市场它要干什么这套机制——是伯南克在 2008 年之后建立的体系。从日历式承诺到条件化承诺,再到每次 FOMC 后的发布会、点阵图、逐字被解读的声明,这套框架在过去 15 年悄悄变成了全球资产定价的隐性底座。沃什说,他要把这个底座拆掉。鲍威尔已经开始退了读过今年 1 月和 3 月 FOMC 发布会记录的人,应该已经看到一些东西。1 月 28 日,鲍威尔说:“委员会没有试图阐述何时降息、或以什么标准降息。”和他过去几年惯用的前瞻式表述相比,这句话的力度明显软了。到了 3 月 18 日,他进了一步——在被追问前瞻指引是否可能改变时,他罕见地公开说:“委员会内部目前对如何改变沟通方式缺乏共识。”这是一个现任主席在说:我们内部讨论过这件事。说白了,鲍威尔在离任前,已经在主动松动前瞻指引的约束力。不完全是被沃什的议程逼的,更像是他自己在有意为后继者腾出空间。两个方向奇怪地收敛在一起:一个在前任的最后几次发布会里逐步淡出,一个在听证会上已经宣布接管后要做什么。失锚,不是从沃什上任那天开始的。这不只是债市的故事过去 15 年,“美联储会提前告诉你它要干什么”这个假设,已经被深度内化进几乎每一类资产的定价模型。股票市场感受到的,先是估值层面的抖动。高 PE 成长股能维持当前倍数,部分前提是折现率的未来路径可以预测——当你知道利率会在哪、走向哪,现金流折现模型才能跑出一个可信的数字。沃什的框架一旦落地,这个前提就消失了。模型开始抖动的时候,成长股的估值倍数比价值股脆弱得多。这不是方向性的利率冲击,而是折现率的能见度本身出了问题,后者对估值的破坏力更持久。分水岭在于沃什给不给出替代框架:如果他上任后宣布某种“以数据为条件的情景化指引”,成长股的估值压缩幅度会比彻底沉默的情形小很多。信用市场的脆弱性更隐蔽。企业债的再融资决策,依赖的是“我对未来三年利率路径有基本把握”。这个能见度一旦消失,信用利差需要补偿额外的不确定性溢价——而当前利差处于 25 年来的极紧水平,几乎没有缓冲空间。利差从这里开始走宽,速度不会慢。失效条件只有一个:沃什的“无前瞻指引”被参议院和市场解读为仅是沟通风格的微调,而非系统性转变。汇率那边,情况更隐蔽。很多新兴市场央行过去十年一直把 Fed 的前瞻指引当成政策参照系——如果这个参照系突然变得不可读,本国汇率政策就更难校准,货币波动率自然上升。2013 年“缩减恐慌”时,储备较薄弱的新兴市场货币在几个月内跌了 6%–15%。当前新兴市场的外汇储备状况有所改善,但全球增长预期更弱(IMF 刚把 2026 年全球增速下调至 3.1%),这次的增长溢价更薄。目前 MOVE 指数约为 67,低于历史均值的 75–80。债市的隐含波动率处于历史偏低位置,市场还在免费享受前瞻指引提供的确定性溢价。“Taper Tantrum”那年,MOVE 在高峰时超过 125。那次市场在恐慌的是“QE 要削减”——方向已知,只是规模要变。这次面对的是“沟通框架本身要消失”,不确定性的来源要更根本。MOVE 向 75–80 靠拢是债市先动的信号;一旦突破 90,历史上的数据显示股票和信用市场的波动率会开始跟进。发布会当天该怎么读如果沃什在 5 月 15 日前被参议院确认——当前概率 84%——4 月 29 日就是鲍威尔以主席身份最后一次面对媒体。从现在到 5 月 15 日不到三周,如果确认顺利推进,交接就是干净的:鲍威尔离任,沃什就位,没有重叠。但在这三周里,市场不会静静等待。沃什在听证会上的表态已经足够明确,市场会把鲍威尔发布会上说的每一句话,放进沃什的议程里重新解读——不是因为两人同时在位,而是因为市场已经在为那套新框架定价了。他不会评论沃什,不会为前瞻指引做明确辩护,也不会提前为继任者背书。他会一如既往地说“我们逐次会议做决策”,会强调“数据依赖”,会在利率决定上选择最无争议的路径。发布会刚开始,最先动的是国债期货——市场在看他描述通胀的措辞是偏鹰还是偏鸽,这决定了沃什接手时的政策初始条件。问答环节,记者们几乎可以确定会追问“你如何看待前瞻指引改革”,那个回答值得一字一字地读。鲍威尔越是在发布会上强调前瞻指引的价值,市场越会预期沃什会更用力地推倒它。这场发布会的意外,藏在它没有说的那些话里。接下来需要盯的几件事参议院投票时间线是第一个分水岭。DOJ 撤案解除了参议员 Tillis 的最大障碍,但他本人在撤案之后的公开表态仍然是信息缺口。如果银行委员会在 5 月第一周顺利通过,全体参议院预计在 5 月 11–14 周投票——若在这个窗口内完成,5 月 15 日鲍威尔离任当天沃什就位;若延迟,鲍威尔将以代理主席身份再多主持一次发布会,时间落在 6 月 16–17 日。两种结果对应的市场逻辑截然不同:前者让“无前瞻指引”的定价预期集中爆发在 5 月第二周;后者则会把这个压力分散拉长,给市场多一段喘息的时间。沃什确认后的首次公开表态,比确认本身更重要。交接完成后,不确定性的性质会改变——从“谁在掌舵”变成“他是否真的会执行听证会上说的那些事”。历史上没有主要央行在没有任何替代方案的情况下完全废除前瞻指引。澳洲联储 2021 年放弃收益率曲线控制时也设置了过渡期。如果沃什上来宣布某种“以数据为条件的情景化指引”,市场冲击会显著收窄;如果他真的选择完全沉默,那才是“无信号时代”的正式开始。MOVE 指数是最直接的观测窗口。67 向 75–80 靠拢,债市先动;突破 90,股票和信用市场的波动率会跟进。每次 FOMC 之间的数据冲击幅度也值得盯。全球央行的跟进动向不是尾部风险,是需要提前校准的变量。欧央行、日本央行过去十年把美联储的政策路径当成重要的外部参照。这个参照系一旦变得不可读,各国货币政策的分歧会扩大,跨市场传导的逻辑也会变得更复杂——汇率波动率上升,是这个链条里最容易被低估的传导路径。6 月 16–17 日的 FOMC 是终极验证节点。那很可能是沃什主持的第一次会议——第一份没有点阵图的声明,第一场可能改变格式或频率的发布会。所有关于“体制变革”的判断,都要在那里对账。当前市场的主流预期,是把这一切当成人事新闻在处理——等沃什真正上任了再说。但失锚是一个过程,不是一个时点,而这个过程,从下周三就已经开始了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"TBIL":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"SHV":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"MUB":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"FOMC":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"BND":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"ZROZ":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"BSV":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"TMF":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557288515825936,"gmtCreate":1777088461005,"gmtModify":1777088463326,"author":{"id":"4203929645427010","authorId":"4203929645427010","name":"老雷唯微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26121a8668e93a57f493587b69c73fd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203929645427010","idStr":"4203929645427010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557288515825936","repostId":"1142114028","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142114028","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1776742456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142114028?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-21 11:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻|增长与挑战并存!iPhone稳撑大局,苹果Q2业绩有望超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142114028","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"核心业务前瞻:iPhone稳撑大局,Mac成潜在亮点iPhone业务:需求强劲,出货量有望达6000万部作为苹果的核心营收支柱,iPhone业务在本季度仍将保持强劲增长态势。本季度,iPhone需求延续旺盛态势,不同机构给出的出货量预测均呈现同比增长。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>将于美东时间4月30日盘后发布2026财年第二季度财报。本季度,苹果在产品需求、供应链、政策监管等多方面面临双重格局,既有iPhone销售强劲、Mac业务增长潜力释放的利好支撑,也遭遇芯片供应受限、内存价格暴涨等挑战。</p><p>根据彭博数据来源预测,苹果2026财年第二季度营收1095.76亿美元,调整后每股收益(EPS)预计为1.96美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e059642acc6c8f7572d0bbb737921f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1326\" tg-height=\"450\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3355896411\">上季度业绩回顾</h2><p>该公司第一财季营收同比增长16%,iPhone销售收入同比增23%,分别较分析师预期高将近4%和9%,均超过公司的增幅指引10%-12%;EPS盈利也创纪录,较分析师预期高逾6%,服务业务收入三年来持续创单季新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f269171c1eae265f2598f12b0696553\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1438\"/></p><p>在全球头号智能手机市场中国,苹果的销售大反弹。大中华区的收入由三季度同比下滑转为劲增将近40%,较分析师预期收入高将近20%。</p><p>业绩电话会上,苹果透露,预计公司第二财季、即今年一季度营收将增长13%-16%。这意味着,苹果对年末重磅购物季过后的业绩增长也感到乐观,最好情况下同比增速将持平四季度。</p><h2 id=\"id_216936211\" style=\"text-align: left;\">整体业绩预期:增长态势明确,有望超市场预期</h2><p>结合苹果官方指引与华尔街分析师预测,本季度整体业绩将呈现稳健增长态势,且存在超预期可能。苹果在2026财年第一季度财报中给出的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>指引显示,预计总营收同比增长13%至16%,对应营收区间为1078亿美元至1107亿美元,较去年同期的954亿美元有显著提升,这一指引已充分考虑iPhone供应受限的影响。</p><p>从市场预测来看,华尔街普遍预期苹果Q2营收将达1089.2亿美元,同比增长超14%,每股收益(EPS)预计为1.93美元,同比增长17%。其中,美银证券分析师Wamsi Mohan给出了更为乐观的预测,认为受iPhone销售强劲、服务业务双位数增长及汇兑收益支撑,苹果Q2业绩将超越市场预期,预计营收将达1130亿美元,EPS为2美元,毛利率为48.2%。此外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KEY\">KeyCorp</a>也将苹果Q2 EPS预测从1.70美元上调至1.94美元,反映出市场对苹果本季度表现的信心。</p><p>盈利能力方面,苹果指引本季度毛利率在48%至49%之间,与上一季度48.2%的水平基本持平,这一区间已充分考虑了零部件价格上涨带来的利润挤压压力。整体来看,尽管供应链存在不确定性,但苹果凭借核心业务的强劲需求,有望实现营收与利润的双增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_833039293\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心业务前瞻:iPhone稳撑大局,Mac成潜在亮点</h2><p><strong>iPhone业务:需求强劲,出货量有望达6000万部</strong></p><p>作为苹果的核心营收支柱,iPhone业务在本季度仍将保持强劲增长态势。上一季度,iPhone营收同比激增23%至852.7亿美元,创下单季度历史新高,其中大中华区表现尤为亮眼,受iPhone 17系列需求推动,该地区iPhone营收创下历史纪录,升级用户数与转换用户数均表现突出。</p><p>本季度,iPhone需求延续旺盛态势,不同机构给出的出货量预测均呈现同比增长。美银证券将Q2 iPhone出货量预测上调至6000万部,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>则预计出货量约为5200万部,虽较上一季度有所回落,但同比仍增长12%,显著优于过往Q2通常15%-25%的季减幅度,实现“淡季不淡”。其中,新款iPhone 17e已于2月底开始铺货,3月加速拉升产能,预计将贡献700万部的出货量,成为本季度iPhone业务的重要增长动力。</p><p>值得注意的是,iPhone业务也面临一定挑战。全球AI浪潮引发零部件争夺,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、SK海力士等供应商大幅上调LPDDR内存芯片价格,其中三星报价环比涨幅超80%,SK海力士接近100%,直接推高了iPhone的生产成本,可能对毛利率产生一定挤压。此外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>3纳米制程芯片供应紧张,作为苹果旗舰产品所需芯片的独家代工方,台积电需平衡<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等AI客户的产能需求,导致苹果先进芯片供应受限,这也是苹果多年来首次发布业绩限制声明的核心原因。</p><p><strong>Mac业务:需求回暖,Mac mini成增长引擎</strong></p><p>Mac业务有望成为本季度财报的潜在亮点。上一季度,Mac业务营收同比略有下滑至83.9亿美元,但本季度受OpenClaw等项目推动,Mac mini销量激增,带动Mac业务需求回暖。尽管MacBook Neo于本季度末才发布,对本次财报的营收贡献有限,但该机型的推出有望为后续季度增长奠定基础,市场将重点关注Mac业务的同比复苏情况,对比去年同期79.5亿美元的营收,本季度有望实现正向增长。</p><p><strong>服务业务:持续双位数增长,成利润重要支撑</strong></p><p>服务业务作为苹果高毛利的核心增长板块,本季度将继续保持稳健增长态势。上一季度,服务业务营收达300亿美元,同比增长14%,创历史新高,广告、云服务、音乐和支付服务均实现双位数增长,付费订阅用户持续增加,25亿活跃设备的庞大基础为业务增长提供了有力支撑,其毛利率更是高达76.5%,成为苹果盈利能力的重要保障。</p><p>市场预期本季度服务业务将延续这一增长势头,美银证券预计服务收入同比增长14%,与上一季度增速持平,尽管全球App Store销售相对疲弱(同比增长7%),但广告业务的持续发力和订阅用户的稳步增长,将推动服务业务实现预期目标,进一步支撑整体毛利率水平。</p><p><strong>其他业务:可穿戴设备受供应限制,增长承压</strong></p><p>可穿戴、家用及配件产品业务上一季度营收为114.9亿美元,同比略有下滑,主要受AirPods Pro 3供应限制影响,苹果管理层表示,若非供应问题,该业务原本将实现增长。本季度,供应链紧张问题仍未完全缓解,预计该业务将维持平稳态势,难以实现显著增长,市场将重点关注供应瓶颈的缓解情况及新品推出计划。</p><h2 id=\"id_3991645910\" style=\"text-align: left;\">关键影响因素:供应链承压与成本上涨成核心挑战</h2><p><strong>供应链瓶颈:先进制程产能告急,零部件供应紧张</strong></p><p>本季度,苹果面临的最大挑战来自供应链。一方面,台积电先进制程产能紧张,英伟达已取代苹果成为台积电最大客户,其AI芯片对3纳米、2纳米制程的迫切需求占用了大量产能,导致苹果旗舰产品所需的3纳米A系列芯片供应受限,这是苹果多年来首次明确表示业绩将受芯片供应限制。苹果CFO凯文·帕雷克强调,本季度业绩指引是基于“对供应受限的最佳估计”,暗示供应链情况仍在动态变化。</p><p>另一方面,AI行业的爆发式增长导致内存芯片(NAND闪存与DRAM)供应短缺,价格暴涨,进一步推高苹果生产成本。据行业数据显示,2026年以来,DRAM价格季度报价几乎翻番,TrendForce预计本季度DRAM价格将上涨90%至95%,NAND闪存价格上涨超100%,这一趋势将持续挤压苹果的利润空间,尤其是对iPhone等硬件产品的毛利率影响显著。</p><p><strong>成本与定价:维持售价稳定,利润面临挤压</strong></p><p>面对零部件价格上涨的压力,苹果采取了“维持售价稳定”的策略,计划让iPhone 18系列起售价与前代持平,通过稳固用户基础对冲利润压力,后续或将依赖高毛利的服务业务弥补硬件利润损失。尽管苹果已将成本上涨因素纳入毛利率指引,但内存价格上涨的实际影响可能超出预期,若供应链压力进一步加剧,可能导致毛利率低于预期区间下限。</p><p><strong>宏观与政策:关税影响持续,市场需求分化</strong></p><p>宏观经济不确定性仍对苹果业务产生一定影响,全球消费电子需求分化,部分市场受经济下行压力影响,消费者换机意愿有所减弱,但苹果凭借强大的品牌力和忠诚的客户基础,仍能维持需求优势。此外,关税局势持续影响苹果供应链布局和产品成本,若全球关税政策出现调整,可能对本季度业绩产生额外影响,这也是财报电话会议中分析师可能重点关注的问题。</p><h2 id=\"id_3081542291\" style=\"text-align: left;\">总结与展望</h2><p>2026财年第二季度,苹果将呈现“增长与挑战并存”的态势。整体来看,得益于iPhone业务的强劲需求、服务业务的持续双位数增长,以及Mac业务的回暖,苹果有望实现营收与利润的同比增长,甚至超越市场预期。但同时,供应链瓶颈、零部件价格上涨等因素将对业绩形成一定压制,毛利率面临小幅挤压风险。</p><p>从市场情绪来看,华尔街对苹果股票保持“适度买入”的共识评级,平均目标价为305.10美元,暗示有14.51%的上涨空间,多家大行近期上调了苹果目标价至325美元,反映出市场对苹果长期发展的信心。</p><p>本次财报的核心意义,不仅在于验证苹果本季度的经营表现,更在于观察管理层对供应链挑战的应对策略,以及对下半年增长的指引。若苹果能有效缓解供应链压力,维持核心业务增长势头,并明确未来AI相关产品的布局,有望进一步提振市场信心;反之,若供应链问题持续加剧,导致业绩不及预期,可能引发短期股价波动。后续,随着可折叠iPhone、增强版Siri等新品和功能的推出,苹果有望开启新的增长周期。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻|增长与挑战并存!iPhone稳撑大局,苹果Q2业绩有望超预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻|增长与挑战并存!iPhone稳撑大局,苹果Q2业绩有望超预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-21 11:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>将于美东时间4月30日盘后发布2026财年第二季度财报。本季度,苹果在产品需求、供应链、政策监管等多方面面临双重格局,既有iPhone销售强劲、Mac业务增长潜力释放的利好支撑,也遭遇芯片供应受限、内存价格暴涨等挑战。</p><p>根据彭博数据来源预测,苹果2026财年第二季度营收1095.76亿美元,调整后每股收益(EPS)预计为1.96美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e059642acc6c8f7572d0bbb737921f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1326\" tg-height=\"450\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3355896411\">上季度业绩回顾</h2><p>该公司第一财季营收同比增长16%,iPhone销售收入同比增23%,分别较分析师预期高将近4%和9%,均超过公司的增幅指引10%-12%;EPS盈利也创纪录,较分析师预期高逾6%,服务业务收入三年来持续创单季新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f269171c1eae265f2598f12b0696553\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1438\"/></p><p>在全球头号智能手机市场中国,苹果的销售大反弹。大中华区的收入由三季度同比下滑转为劲增将近40%,较分析师预期收入高将近20%。</p><p>业绩电话会上,苹果透露,预计公司第二财季、即今年一季度营收将增长13%-16%。这意味着,苹果对年末重磅购物季过后的业绩增长也感到乐观,最好情况下同比增速将持平四季度。</p><h2 id=\"id_216936211\" style=\"text-align: left;\">整体业绩预期:增长态势明确,有望超市场预期</h2><p>结合苹果官方指引与华尔街分析师预测,本季度整体业绩将呈现稳健增长态势,且存在超预期可能。苹果在2026财年第一季度财报中给出的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>指引显示,预计总营收同比增长13%至16%,对应营收区间为1078亿美元至1107亿美元,较去年同期的954亿美元有显著提升,这一指引已充分考虑iPhone供应受限的影响。</p><p>从市场预测来看,华尔街普遍预期苹果Q2营收将达1089.2亿美元,同比增长超14%,每股收益(EPS)预计为1.93美元,同比增长17%。其中,美银证券分析师Wamsi Mohan给出了更为乐观的预测,认为受iPhone销售强劲、服务业务双位数增长及汇兑收益支撑,苹果Q2业绩将超越市场预期,预计营收将达1130亿美元,EPS为2美元,毛利率为48.2%。此外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KEY\">KeyCorp</a>也将苹果Q2 EPS预测从1.70美元上调至1.94美元,反映出市场对苹果本季度表现的信心。</p><p>盈利能力方面,苹果指引本季度毛利率在48%至49%之间,与上一季度48.2%的水平基本持平,这一区间已充分考虑了零部件价格上涨带来的利润挤压压力。整体来看,尽管供应链存在不确定性,但苹果凭借核心业务的强劲需求,有望实现营收与利润的双增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_833039293\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心业务前瞻:iPhone稳撑大局,Mac成潜在亮点</h2><p><strong>iPhone业务:需求强劲,出货量有望达6000万部</strong></p><p>作为苹果的核心营收支柱,iPhone业务在本季度仍将保持强劲增长态势。上一季度,iPhone营收同比激增23%至852.7亿美元,创下单季度历史新高,其中大中华区表现尤为亮眼,受iPhone 17系列需求推动,该地区iPhone营收创下历史纪录,升级用户数与转换用户数均表现突出。</p><p>本季度,iPhone需求延续旺盛态势,不同机构给出的出货量预测均呈现同比增长。美银证券将Q2 iPhone出货量预测上调至6000万部,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>则预计出货量约为5200万部,虽较上一季度有所回落,但同比仍增长12%,显著优于过往Q2通常15%-25%的季减幅度,实现“淡季不淡”。其中,新款iPhone 17e已于2月底开始铺货,3月加速拉升产能,预计将贡献700万部的出货量,成为本季度iPhone业务的重要增长动力。</p><p>值得注意的是,iPhone业务也面临一定挑战。全球AI浪潮引发零部件争夺,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、SK海力士等供应商大幅上调LPDDR内存芯片价格,其中三星报价环比涨幅超80%,SK海力士接近100%,直接推高了iPhone的生产成本,可能对毛利率产生一定挤压。此外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>3纳米制程芯片供应紧张,作为苹果旗舰产品所需芯片的独家代工方,台积电需平衡<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等AI客户的产能需求,导致苹果先进芯片供应受限,这也是苹果多年来首次发布业绩限制声明的核心原因。</p><p><strong>Mac业务:需求回暖,Mac mini成增长引擎</strong></p><p>Mac业务有望成为本季度财报的潜在亮点。上一季度,Mac业务营收同比略有下滑至83.9亿美元,但本季度受OpenClaw等项目推动,Mac mini销量激增,带动Mac业务需求回暖。尽管MacBook Neo于本季度末才发布,对本次财报的营收贡献有限,但该机型的推出有望为后续季度增长奠定基础,市场将重点关注Mac业务的同比复苏情况,对比去年同期79.5亿美元的营收,本季度有望实现正向增长。</p><p><strong>服务业务:持续双位数增长,成利润重要支撑</strong></p><p>服务业务作为苹果高毛利的核心增长板块,本季度将继续保持稳健增长态势。上一季度,服务业务营收达300亿美元,同比增长14%,创历史新高,广告、云服务、音乐和支付服务均实现双位数增长,付费订阅用户持续增加,25亿活跃设备的庞大基础为业务增长提供了有力支撑,其毛利率更是高达76.5%,成为苹果盈利能力的重要保障。</p><p>市场预期本季度服务业务将延续这一增长势头,美银证券预计服务收入同比增长14%,与上一季度增速持平,尽管全球App Store销售相对疲弱(同比增长7%),但广告业务的持续发力和订阅用户的稳步增长,将推动服务业务实现预期目标,进一步支撑整体毛利率水平。</p><p><strong>其他业务:可穿戴设备受供应限制,增长承压</strong></p><p>可穿戴、家用及配件产品业务上一季度营收为114.9亿美元,同比略有下滑,主要受AirPods Pro 3供应限制影响,苹果管理层表示,若非供应问题,该业务原本将实现增长。本季度,供应链紧张问题仍未完全缓解,预计该业务将维持平稳态势,难以实现显著增长,市场将重点关注供应瓶颈的缓解情况及新品推出计划。</p><h2 id=\"id_3991645910\" style=\"text-align: left;\">关键影响因素:供应链承压与成本上涨成核心挑战</h2><p><strong>供应链瓶颈:先进制程产能告急,零部件供应紧张</strong></p><p>本季度,苹果面临的最大挑战来自供应链。一方面,台积电先进制程产能紧张,英伟达已取代苹果成为台积电最大客户,其AI芯片对3纳米、2纳米制程的迫切需求占用了大量产能,导致苹果旗舰产品所需的3纳米A系列芯片供应受限,这是苹果多年来首次明确表示业绩将受芯片供应限制。苹果CFO凯文·帕雷克强调,本季度业绩指引是基于“对供应受限的最佳估计”,暗示供应链情况仍在动态变化。</p><p>另一方面,AI行业的爆发式增长导致内存芯片(NAND闪存与DRAM)供应短缺,价格暴涨,进一步推高苹果生产成本。据行业数据显示,2026年以来,DRAM价格季度报价几乎翻番,TrendForce预计本季度DRAM价格将上涨90%至95%,NAND闪存价格上涨超100%,这一趋势将持续挤压苹果的利润空间,尤其是对iPhone等硬件产品的毛利率影响显著。</p><p><strong>成本与定价:维持售价稳定,利润面临挤压</strong></p><p>面对零部件价格上涨的压力,苹果采取了“维持售价稳定”的策略,计划让iPhone 18系列起售价与前代持平,通过稳固用户基础对冲利润压力,后续或将依赖高毛利的服务业务弥补硬件利润损失。尽管苹果已将成本上涨因素纳入毛利率指引,但内存价格上涨的实际影响可能超出预期,若供应链压力进一步加剧,可能导致毛利率低于预期区间下限。</p><p><strong>宏观与政策:关税影响持续,市场需求分化</strong></p><p>宏观经济不确定性仍对苹果业务产生一定影响,全球消费电子需求分化,部分市场受经济下行压力影响,消费者换机意愿有所减弱,但苹果凭借强大的品牌力和忠诚的客户基础,仍能维持需求优势。此外,关税局势持续影响苹果供应链布局和产品成本,若全球关税政策出现调整,可能对本季度业绩产生额外影响,这也是财报电话会议中分析师可能重点关注的问题。</p><h2 id=\"id_3081542291\" style=\"text-align: left;\">总结与展望</h2><p>2026财年第二季度,苹果将呈现“增长与挑战并存”的态势。整体来看,得益于iPhone业务的强劲需求、服务业务的持续双位数增长,以及Mac业务的回暖,苹果有望实现营收与利润的同比增长,甚至超越市场预期。但同时,供应链瓶颈、零部件价格上涨等因素将对业绩形成一定压制,毛利率面临小幅挤压风险。</p><p>从市场情绪来看,华尔街对苹果股票保持“适度买入”的共识评级,平均目标价为305.10美元,暗示有14.51%的上涨空间,多家大行近期上调了苹果目标价至325美元,反映出市场对苹果长期发展的信心。</p><p>本次财报的核心意义,不仅在于验证苹果本季度的经营表现,更在于观察管理层对供应链挑战的应对策略,以及对下半年增长的指引。若苹果能有效缓解供应链压力,维持核心业务增长势头,并明确未来AI相关产品的布局,有望进一步提振市场信心;反之,若供应链问题持续加剧,导致业绩不及预期,可能引发短期股价波动。后续,随着可折叠iPhone、增强版Siri等新品和功能的推出,苹果有望开启新的增长周期。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14042c46f2975450d35a2f65cac72d66","relate_stocks":{"AAPX":"2倍做多Apple ETF-T-Rex","APLY":"AAPL期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","AAPB":"2倍做多AAPL ETF-GraniteShares","AAPU":"2倍做多AAPL ETF-Direxion","AAPY":"AAPL收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","AAPD":"1倍做空AAPL ETF-Direxion","AAPW":"AAPL周配息ETF-Roundhill","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142114028","content_text":"苹果将于美东时间4月30日盘后发布2026财年第二季度财报。本季度,苹果在产品需求、供应链、政策监管等多方面面临双重格局,既有iPhone销售强劲、Mac业务增长潜力释放的利好支撑,也遭遇芯片供应受限、内存价格暴涨等挑战。根据彭博数据来源预测,苹果2026财年第二季度营收1095.76亿美元,调整后每股收益(EPS)预计为1.96美元。上季度业绩回顾该公司第一财季营收同比增长16%,iPhone销售收入同比增23%,分别较分析师预期高将近4%和9%,均超过公司的增幅指引10%-12%;EPS盈利也创纪录,较分析师预期高逾6%,服务业务收入三年来持续创单季新高。在全球头号智能手机市场中国,苹果的销售大反弹。大中华区的收入由三季度同比下滑转为劲增将近40%,较分析师预期收入高将近20%。业绩电话会上,苹果透露,预计公司第二财季、即今年一季度营收将增长13%-16%。这意味着,苹果对年末重磅购物季过后的业绩增长也感到乐观,最好情况下同比增速将持平四季度。整体业绩预期:增长态势明确,有望超市场预期结合苹果官方指引与华尔街分析师预测,本季度整体业绩将呈现稳健增长态势,且存在超预期可能。苹果在2026财年第一季度财报中给出的Q2指引显示,预计总营收同比增长13%至16%,对应营收区间为1078亿美元至1107亿美元,较去年同期的954亿美元有显著提升,这一指引已充分考虑iPhone供应受限的影响。从市场预测来看,华尔街普遍预期苹果Q2营收将达1089.2亿美元,同比增长超14%,每股收益(EPS)预计为1.93美元,同比增长17%。其中,美银证券分析师Wamsi Mohan给出了更为乐观的预测,认为受iPhone销售强劲、服务业务双位数增长及汇兑收益支撑,苹果Q2业绩将超越市场预期,预计营收将达1130亿美元,EPS为2美元,毛利率为48.2%。此外,KeyCorp也将苹果Q2 EPS预测从1.70美元上调至1.94美元,反映出市场对苹果本季度表现的信心。盈利能力方面,苹果指引本季度毛利率在48%至49%之间,与上一季度48.2%的水平基本持平,这一区间已充分考虑了零部件价格上涨带来的利润挤压压力。整体来看,尽管供应链存在不确定性,但苹果凭借核心业务的强劲需求,有望实现营收与利润的双增长。核心业务前瞻:iPhone稳撑大局,Mac成潜在亮点iPhone业务:需求强劲,出货量有望达6000万部作为苹果的核心营收支柱,iPhone业务在本季度仍将保持强劲增长态势。上一季度,iPhone营收同比激增23%至852.7亿美元,创下单季度历史新高,其中大中华区表现尤为亮眼,受iPhone 17系列需求推动,该地区iPhone营收创下历史纪录,升级用户数与转换用户数均表现突出。本季度,iPhone需求延续旺盛态势,不同机构给出的出货量预测均呈现同比增长。美银证券将Q2 iPhone出货量预测上调至6000万部,摩根士丹利则预计出货量约为5200万部,虽较上一季度有所回落,但同比仍增长12%,显著优于过往Q2通常15%-25%的季减幅度,实现“淡季不淡”。其中,新款iPhone 17e已于2月底开始铺货,3月加速拉升产能,预计将贡献700万部的出货量,成为本季度iPhone业务的重要增长动力。值得注意的是,iPhone业务也面临一定挑战。全球AI浪潮引发零部件争夺,三星、SK海力士等供应商大幅上调LPDDR内存芯片价格,其中三星报价环比涨幅超80%,SK海力士接近100%,直接推高了iPhone的生产成本,可能对毛利率产生一定挤压。此外,台积电3纳米制程芯片供应紧张,作为苹果旗舰产品所需芯片的独家代工方,台积电需平衡英伟达等AI客户的产能需求,导致苹果先进芯片供应受限,这也是苹果多年来首次发布业绩限制声明的核心原因。Mac业务:需求回暖,Mac mini成增长引擎Mac业务有望成为本季度财报的潜在亮点。上一季度,Mac业务营收同比略有下滑至83.9亿美元,但本季度受OpenClaw等项目推动,Mac mini销量激增,带动Mac业务需求回暖。尽管MacBook Neo于本季度末才发布,对本次财报的营收贡献有限,但该机型的推出有望为后续季度增长奠定基础,市场将重点关注Mac业务的同比复苏情况,对比去年同期79.5亿美元的营收,本季度有望实现正向增长。服务业务:持续双位数增长,成利润重要支撑服务业务作为苹果高毛利的核心增长板块,本季度将继续保持稳健增长态势。上一季度,服务业务营收达300亿美元,同比增长14%,创历史新高,广告、云服务、音乐和支付服务均实现双位数增长,付费订阅用户持续增加,25亿活跃设备的庞大基础为业务增长提供了有力支撑,其毛利率更是高达76.5%,成为苹果盈利能力的重要保障。市场预期本季度服务业务将延续这一增长势头,美银证券预计服务收入同比增长14%,与上一季度增速持平,尽管全球App Store销售相对疲弱(同比增长7%),但广告业务的持续发力和订阅用户的稳步增长,将推动服务业务实现预期目标,进一步支撑整体毛利率水平。其他业务:可穿戴设备受供应限制,增长承压可穿戴、家用及配件产品业务上一季度营收为114.9亿美元,同比略有下滑,主要受AirPods Pro 3供应限制影响,苹果管理层表示,若非供应问题,该业务原本将实现增长。本季度,供应链紧张问题仍未完全缓解,预计该业务将维持平稳态势,难以实现显著增长,市场将重点关注供应瓶颈的缓解情况及新品推出计划。关键影响因素:供应链承压与成本上涨成核心挑战供应链瓶颈:先进制程产能告急,零部件供应紧张本季度,苹果面临的最大挑战来自供应链。一方面,台积电先进制程产能紧张,英伟达已取代苹果成为台积电最大客户,其AI芯片对3纳米、2纳米制程的迫切需求占用了大量产能,导致苹果旗舰产品所需的3纳米A系列芯片供应受限,这是苹果多年来首次明确表示业绩将受芯片供应限制。苹果CFO凯文·帕雷克强调,本季度业绩指引是基于“对供应受限的最佳估计”,暗示供应链情况仍在动态变化。另一方面,AI行业的爆发式增长导致内存芯片(NAND闪存与DRAM)供应短缺,价格暴涨,进一步推高苹果生产成本。据行业数据显示,2026年以来,DRAM价格季度报价几乎翻番,TrendForce预计本季度DRAM价格将上涨90%至95%,NAND闪存价格上涨超100%,这一趋势将持续挤压苹果的利润空间,尤其是对iPhone等硬件产品的毛利率影响显著。成本与定价:维持售价稳定,利润面临挤压面对零部件价格上涨的压力,苹果采取了“维持售价稳定”的策略,计划让iPhone 18系列起售价与前代持平,通过稳固用户基础对冲利润压力,后续或将依赖高毛利的服务业务弥补硬件利润损失。尽管苹果已将成本上涨因素纳入毛利率指引,但内存价格上涨的实际影响可能超出预期,若供应链压力进一步加剧,可能导致毛利率低于预期区间下限。宏观与政策:关税影响持续,市场需求分化宏观经济不确定性仍对苹果业务产生一定影响,全球消费电子需求分化,部分市场受经济下行压力影响,消费者换机意愿有所减弱,但苹果凭借强大的品牌力和忠诚的客户基础,仍能维持需求优势。此外,关税局势持续影响苹果供应链布局和产品成本,若全球关税政策出现调整,可能对本季度业绩产生额外影响,这也是财报电话会议中分析师可能重点关注的问题。总结与展望2026财年第二季度,苹果将呈现“增长与挑战并存”的态势。整体来看,得益于iPhone业务的强劲需求、服务业务的持续双位数增长,以及Mac业务的回暖,苹果有望实现营收与利润的同比增长,甚至超越市场预期。但同时,供应链瓶颈、零部件价格上涨等因素将对业绩形成一定压制,毛利率面临小幅挤压风险。从市场情绪来看,华尔街对苹果股票保持“适度买入”的共识评级,平均目标价为305.10美元,暗示有14.51%的上涨空间,多家大行近期上调了苹果目标价至325美元,反映出市场对苹果长期发展的信心。本次财报的核心意义,不仅在于验证苹果本季度的经营表现,更在于观察管理层对供应链挑战的应对策略,以及对下半年增长的指引。若苹果能有效缓解供应链压力,维持核心业务增长势头,并明确未来AI相关产品的布局,有望进一步提振市场信心;反之,若供应链问题持续加剧,导致业绩不及预期,可能引发短期股价波动。后续,随着可折叠iPhone、增强版Siri等新品和功能的推出,苹果有望开启新的增长周期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPD":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AAPL":2,"AAPB":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"AAPY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":556943827932896,"gmtCreate":1777001143152,"gmtModify":1777001145513,"author":{"id":"4203929645427010","authorId":"4203929645427010","name":"老雷唯微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26121a8668e93a57f493587b69c73fd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203929645427010","idStr":"4203929645427010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/556943827932896","repostId":"2629862618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2629862618","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776988859,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629862618?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 08:00","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美国“布什”号航母驶近中东,以色列称准备好重启战争,伊朗制定“对等回应”方案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629862618","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"能源与避险资产的剧烈波动或一触即发。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>中东局势骤然升温,美国、以色列与伊朗三方剑拔弩张,军事对抗风险显著上升。</p>\n<p>据新华社报道,美军"布什"号核动力航母23日现身印度洋,正向中东方向推进,三航母同时部署中东的态势正在形成。与此同时,特朗普在社交媒体发出强硬警告,称"时间在倒计时",矛头直指伊朗。</p>\n<p>据央视新闻,以色列国防部长卡茨23日公开表示,以色列已做好重启与伊朗战争的准备,"只等美国的绿灯"。</p>\n<p>与此同时,据新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社报道,伊朗已针对美方及其盟友的潜在军事行动制定详细反击方案,涵盖能源设施打击、封锁霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>等一系列升级选项。</p>\n<p><strong>美国持续强化军事存在、以色列公开宣示进攻准备、伊朗逐条列明反制清单,三方均在以强硬姿态压缩谈判空间。</strong>若局势进一步升级,能源价格、避险资产及地区相关资产的波动率均面临显著上行压力。</p>\n<h2>三航母逼近,特朗普发出倒计时警告</h2>\n<p>据新华社,美军中央司令部23日在社交媒体发文,确认"尼米兹"级核动力航空母舰"布什"号当天正在印度洋海域航行。该航母打击群于3月31日从弗吉尼亚州诺福克海军基地出发,绕行非洲好望角前往中东,编队包含数艘驱逐舰,总计逾5000名官兵。</p>\n<p>美军中央司令部辖区覆盖波斯湾、红海、阿曼湾及阿拉伯海。目前,"林肯"号和"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>"号两个航母打击群已分别部署于红海和阿拉伯海北部。据美国媒体报道,"布什"号很可能将接替"福特"号,<strong>交接期间预计将形成三航母同时在场的部署态势。</strong></p>\n<p>特朗普当天在社交媒体再度否认外界有关他急于结束对伊军事行动的说法,并写道:<strong>"我有的是时间,但伊朗没有——时间在倒计时!"</strong>这一表态进一步强化了市场对美伊谈判破裂、军事冲突风险上升的担忧。</p>\n<h2>以色列:目标已定,"只等美国绿灯"</h2>\n<p>据央视新闻,总台记者获悉,以色列国防部长卡茨23日在形势评估结束时明确表示,以色列已做好重启与伊朗战争的准备,防御和进攻目标均已确定,目前"正在等待美国的绿灯"。</p>\n<p>卡茨的表态措辞极为强硬。他称,<strong>一旦获得美国授权,以色列将刺杀伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊,并通过炸毁能源和电力设施、摧毁经济基础设施,令伊朗"重回黑暗和石器时代"。</strong></p>\n<p>这是迄今以色列官员就对伊军事行动所作的最为直白的公开表态之一,表明以色列在军事层面的准备已进入实质阶段,行动与否的关键变量在于华盛顿的政治决策。</p>\n<h2>伊朗:逐条列明"对等回应"清单</h2>\n<p>据新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社23日报道,鉴于外交解决受挫及对美方谈判诚意的"彻底不信任",伊朗已依据"对等回应"和"进攻性威慑"原则,针对美方及其盟友的潜在军事行动制定反击方案。</p>\n<p><strong>该方案内容详尽,涵盖多个升级层级:若伊朗发电厂遭打击,将以导弹和无人机打击以色列及地区内美国盟友的发电厂;若油气基础设施遭袭,将对相关方关键油气设施实施打击,使其日产当量每天减少2500万桶,持续一年;若伊朗军政要员遭暗杀,将打击以色列及美国盟友的信息技术和人工智能中心。</strong></p>\n<p>在更高烈度的情景下,若伊朗领土主权遭侵犯,伊朗将对美军航空母舰和武装直升机发起大规模弹道导弹、巡航导弹与无人机联合攻击;若海上封锁持续或升级,伊朗将封锁曼德海峡,并在必要时通过大规模布雷彻底封锁霍尔木兹海峡,切断所有石油出口管道线路。报道还指出,伊朗或将针对该地区以外的美国利益目标发动突袭行动。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-24 08:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>中东局势骤然升温,美国、以色列与伊朗三方剑拔弩张,军事对抗风险显著上升。</p>\n<p>据新华社报道,美军"布什"号核动力航母23日现身印度洋,正向中东方向推进,三航母同时部署中东的态势正在形成。与此同时,特朗普在社交媒体发出强硬警告,称"时间在倒计时",矛头直指伊朗。</p>\n<p>据央视新闻,以色列国防部长卡茨23日公开表示,以色列已做好重启与伊朗战争的准备,"只等美国的绿灯"。</p>\n<p>与此同时,据新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社报道,伊朗已针对美方及其盟友的潜在军事行动制定详细反击方案,涵盖能源设施打击、封锁霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>等一系列升级选项。</p>\n<p><strong>美国持续强化军事存在、以色列公开宣示进攻准备、伊朗逐条列明反制清单,三方均在以强硬姿态压缩谈判空间。</strong>若局势进一步升级,能源价格、避险资产及地区相关资产的波动率均面临显著上行压力。</p>\n<h2>三航母逼近,特朗普发出倒计时警告</h2>\n<p>据新华社,美军中央司令部23日在社交媒体发文,确认"尼米兹"级核动力航空母舰"布什"号当天正在印度洋海域航行。该航母打击群于3月31日从弗吉尼亚州诺福克海军基地出发,绕行非洲好望角前往中东,编队包含数艘驱逐舰,总计逾5000名官兵。</p>\n<p>美军中央司令部辖区覆盖波斯湾、红海、阿曼湾及阿拉伯海。目前,"林肯"号和"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>"号两个航母打击群已分别部署于红海和阿拉伯海北部。据美国媒体报道,"布什"号很可能将接替"福特"号,<strong>交接期间预计将形成三航母同时在场的部署态势。</strong></p>\n<p>特朗普当天在社交媒体再度否认外界有关他急于结束对伊军事行动的说法,并写道:<strong>"我有的是时间,但伊朗没有——时间在倒计时!"</strong>这一表态进一步强化了市场对美伊谈判破裂、军事冲突风险上升的担忧。</p>\n<h2>以色列:目标已定,"只等美国绿灯"</h2>\n<p>据央视新闻,总台记者获悉,以色列国防部长卡茨23日在形势评估结束时明确表示,以色列已做好重启与伊朗战争的准备,防御和进攻目标均已确定,目前"正在等待美国的绿灯"。</p>\n<p>卡茨的表态措辞极为强硬。他称,<strong>一旦获得美国授权,以色列将刺杀伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊,并通过炸毁能源和电力设施、摧毁经济基础设施,令伊朗"重回黑暗和石器时代"。</strong></p>\n<p>这是迄今以色列官员就对伊军事行动所作的最为直白的公开表态之一,表明以色列在军事层面的准备已进入实质阶段,行动与否的关键变量在于华盛顿的政治决策。</p>\n<h2>伊朗:逐条列明"对等回应"清单</h2>\n<p>据新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社23日报道,鉴于外交解决受挫及对美方谈判诚意的"彻底不信任",伊朗已依据"对等回应"和"进攻性威慑"原则,针对美方及其盟友的潜在军事行动制定反击方案。</p>\n<p><strong>该方案内容详尽,涵盖多个升级层级:若伊朗发电厂遭打击,将以导弹和无人机打击以色列及地区内美国盟友的发电厂;若油气基础设施遭袭,将对相关方关键油气设施实施打击,使其日产当量每天减少2500万桶,持续一年;若伊朗军政要员遭暗杀,将打击以色列及美国盟友的信息技术和人工智能中心。</strong></p>\n<p>在更高烈度的情景下,若伊朗领土主权遭侵犯,伊朗将对美军航空母舰和武装直升机发起大规模弹道导弹、巡航导弹与无人机联合攻击;若海上封锁持续或升级,伊朗将封锁曼德海峡,并在必要时通过大规模布雷彻底封锁霍尔木兹海峡,切断所有石油出口管道线路。报道还指出,伊朗或将针对该地区以外的美国利益目标发动突袭行动。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500c5f47cdd4aa4fad03f86c18c80530","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770762","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2629862618","content_text":"中东局势骤然升温,美国、以色列与伊朗三方剑拔弩张,军事对抗风险显著上升。\n据新华社报道,美军\"布什\"号核动力航母23日现身印度洋,正向中东方向推进,三航母同时部署中东的态势正在形成。与此同时,特朗普在社交媒体发出强硬警告,称\"时间在倒计时\",矛头直指伊朗。\n据央视新闻,以色列国防部长卡茨23日公开表示,以色列已做好重启与伊朗战争的准备,\"只等美国的绿灯\"。\n与此同时,据新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社报道,伊朗已针对美方及其盟友的潜在军事行动制定详细反击方案,涵盖能源设施打击、封锁霍尔木兹海峡等一系列升级选项。\n美国持续强化军事存在、以色列公开宣示进攻准备、伊朗逐条列明反制清单,三方均在以强硬姿态压缩谈判空间。若局势进一步升级,能源价格、避险资产及地区相关资产的波动率均面临显著上行压力。\n三航母逼近,特朗普发出倒计时警告\n据新华社,美军中央司令部23日在社交媒体发文,确认\"尼米兹\"级核动力航空母舰\"布什\"号当天正在印度洋海域航行。该航母打击群于3月31日从弗吉尼亚州诺福克海军基地出发,绕行非洲好望角前往中东,编队包含数艘驱逐舰,总计逾5000名官兵。\n美军中央司令部辖区覆盖波斯湾、红海、阿曼湾及阿拉伯海。目前,\"林肯\"号和\"福特\"号两个航母打击群已分别部署于红海和阿拉伯海北部。据美国媒体报道,\"布什\"号很可能将接替\"福特\"号,交接期间预计将形成三航母同时在场的部署态势。\n特朗普当天在社交媒体再度否认外界有关他急于结束对伊军事行动的说法,并写道:\"我有的是时间,但伊朗没有——时间在倒计时!\"这一表态进一步强化了市场对美伊谈判破裂、军事冲突风险上升的担忧。\n以色列:目标已定,\"只等美国绿灯\"\n据央视新闻,总台记者获悉,以色列国防部长卡茨23日在形势评估结束时明确表示,以色列已做好重启与伊朗战争的准备,防御和进攻目标均已确定,目前\"正在等待美国的绿灯\"。\n卡茨的表态措辞极为强硬。他称,一旦获得美国授权,以色列将刺杀伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊,并通过炸毁能源和电力设施、摧毁经济基础设施,令伊朗\"重回黑暗和石器时代\"。\n这是迄今以色列官员就对伊军事行动所作的最为直白的公开表态之一,表明以色列在军事层面的准备已进入实质阶段,行动与否的关键变量在于华盛顿的政治决策。\n伊朗:逐条列明\"对等回应\"清单\n据新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社23日报道,鉴于外交解决受挫及对美方谈判诚意的\"彻底不信任\",伊朗已依据\"对等回应\"和\"进攻性威慑\"原则,针对美方及其盟友的潜在军事行动制定反击方案。\n该方案内容详尽,涵盖多个升级层级:若伊朗发电厂遭打击,将以导弹和无人机打击以色列及地区内美国盟友的发电厂;若油气基础设施遭袭,将对相关方关键油气设施实施打击,使其日产当量每天减少2500万桶,持续一年;若伊朗军政要员遭暗杀,将打击以色列及美国盟友的信息技术和人工智能中心。\n在更高烈度的情景下,若伊朗领土主权遭侵犯,伊朗将对美军航空母舰和武装直升机发起大规模弹道导弹、巡航导弹与无人机联合攻击;若海上封锁持续或升级,伊朗将封锁曼德海峡,并在必要时通过大规模布雷彻底封锁霍尔木兹海峡,切断所有石油出口管道线路。报道还指出,伊朗或将针对该地区以外的美国利益目标发动突袭行动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":556942882576552,"gmtCreate":1777000963065,"gmtModify":1777000965209,"author":{"id":"4203929645427010","authorId":"4203929645427010","name":"老雷唯微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26121a8668e93a57f493587b69c73fd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203929645427010","idStr":"4203929645427010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/556942882576552","repostId":"2629213860","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2629213860","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776993190,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629213860?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 09:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“模拟芯片一哥”德州仪器业绩炸裂背后:半导体成为高确定性的AI赛道","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629213860","media":"智通财经","summary":"Q2指引碾压市场预期","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>公布了好于预期的第一季度业绩及出人意料强劲的第二季度指引后,该股周四收涨19.43%,创下2000年以来的最大单日涨幅。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c74ed04ce379c6bd162a7b77eecdb6\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p><strong>复苏行情延续!德州仪器Q1业绩全面开花 Q2指引碾压市场预期</strong></p><p>财报显示,德州仪器一季度营收同比增长19%至48.3亿美元,好于分析师平均预期的45.2亿美元;营业利润为18.08亿美元,同比增长37%;净利润为15.45亿美元,同比增长31%;每股收益同比增长31%至1.68美元,好于分析师平均预期的1.38美元。</p><p>与此同时,受益于数据中心和工业设备支出的激增,德州仪器给出了出人意料强劲的业绩指引。这家模拟芯片巨头预计,第二季度营收将在50亿美元至54亿美元之间,大幅好于分析师平均预期的48.5亿美元;预计第二季度每股收益为1.77美元至2.05美元,同样大幅好于分析师平均预期的1.57美元。</p><p>德州仪器是全球最大的模拟芯片和嵌入式处理器制造商,其产品执行简单但至关重要的功能,在全球应用范围极度广泛,例如在电子设备中将电源转换为不同的电压。更重要的是,模拟芯片近年来在电动汽车多种关键功能模块和系统中发挥着不可或缺的作用,包括电源管理、电池管理、传感器接口、音频和视频处理、电动机控制等。</p><p>模拟芯片将声音、温度、压力、电流等真实世界信号转换为数字域,支撑汽车 ADAS、工业自动化、IoT 传感、智能电网等场景。模拟IC更换难度高、设计周期长,一旦导入即具长期粘性。MCU则是“电子设备大脑”,控制逻辑与实时运算,几乎存在于所有联网或机电系统中(家电、计量表、车身控制、医疗监护等),德州仪器旗下TI MSP430、C2000、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a>-M 系列MCU产品在低功耗与工业实时控制领域市占领先。</p><p>长期稳居全球模拟芯片“一哥”位置的德州仪器市占率约19%-20%。该公司提供8万余款模拟、电源、信号链与MCU产品,向10万+大客户们供货,几乎渗透到所有终端市场(汽车、工业、通信、消费电子、医疗等)。这种“无所不在”的覆盖面,使得其财报通常被视为整体经济状况的重要风向标之一。</p><p>值得一提的是,德州仪器在1月底公布的2026年第一季度指引便已展示出其复苏势头。尽管该公司2025年第四季度的业绩稍逊于市场预期,但其给出的一季度指引大幅超出市场预期。该公司连续两个季度给出大超预期的业绩指引表明,大型工业设备和汽车领域的模拟芯片与MCU需求呈现出大幅回升轨迹,从2023年“模拟需求至暗时刻”中复苏,尤其是市场期待的“AI数据中心建设热潮带动模拟芯片需求强劲复苏”的情形正在上演。</p><p>德州仪器还在数据中心支出中获得了更大的份额,而数据中心支出一直受到人工智能需求的推动。虽然该公司并不生产用于AI计算机的那类高端数字处理器,但其芯片用于控制电力并执行数据中心中的其他关键功能。其数据中心业务目前每年贡献超过10亿美元销售额,这一数字在2025年增长超过60%,并在第一季度增长了90%。</p><p>AI数据中心正在把模拟需求(尤其电源与信号链)“拉上一个台阶”,但方式不是GPU/HBM那种爆炸式出货,数据中心业务给德州仪器等模拟芯片厂商带来的增量将主要体现在电源管理/保护与监测类模拟器件上。相比于GPU/ASIC/HBM,数据中心模拟器件在全球AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼推动之下,更可能呈现为“更广谱、更稳健、更长周期”的复苏节奏。</p><p>另一个积极信号是,德州仪器正在减少新工厂支出,从而释放更多自由现金流,并可能用于回馈投资者。在推进扩张过程中,该公司逆势而行,没有采用行业普遍的外包生产模式。其目标是加强对制造环节的控制,并通过使用更先进的生产设备,更好地把握未来需求机会。但这一战略的代价是可用于股票回购和股息支付的资金减少——而这曾是吸引投资者的重要因素之一。</p><p>如今,德州仪器正在逐步减少对工厂网络的大规模投资,包括位于总部所在地达拉斯以北约一小时车程的新建工厂。该公司一季度在新工厂和设备上的支出为6.76亿美元,低于上年同期的11亿美元。其仍维持今年20亿美元至30亿美元的资本支出计划。</p><p>德州仪器最近还达成了一项重要交易,以推动增长。今年2月,该公司同意以约75亿美元收购Silicon Laboratories,预计该交易将在2027年上半年完成。</p><p><strong>半导体成AI高确定性赛道</strong></p><p>在德州仪器大涨的背后,美股费城半导体指数创下有史以来最长的连涨纪录,原因是投资者预期在人工智能相关需求的推动下,半导体行业将迎来强劲增长。数据显示,费城半导体指数周四上涨1.71%,实现连续第17个交易日上涨。4月以来,该指数累计上涨近33%,有望成为自2000年2月以来单月涨幅最大的一个月。</p><p>这轮上涨是半导体股引领美股大盘的最新例证。ChatGPT的推出点燃了现代人工智能时代,并推动了这一持续多年的趋势。各大公司正在大举投资与AI相关的基础设施,尤其带动了对芯片的需求增长</p><p>业内人士表示:“由于人工智能的推动,需求非常旺盛,而且可以预期在可预见的未来,对AI的大规模投入还会持续。从估值和增长角度来看,该行业仍具吸引力,这不仅对半导体股票整体有利,也将利好整个市场。”数据显示, 半导体行业在2026年的收入预计将增长约57%,是整体科技行业增速的两倍,也远高于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数预计的9.3%增长。</p><p>美银最新调查显示,“做多半导体”已成为全球市场最热门的交易之一。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在最新研报中对半导体行业持积极看法,预期AI相关需求激增将推动板块进一步上涨。买方机构投资者也正在将资金从软件、互联网平台向半导体硬件产业链集中。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“模拟芯片一哥”德州仪器业绩炸裂背后:半导体成为高确定性的AI赛道\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-24 09:13 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1433140.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在德州仪器公布了好于预期的第一季度业绩及出人意料强劲的第二季度指引后,该股周四收涨19.43%,创下2000年以来的最大单日涨幅。复苏行情延续!德州仪器Q1业绩全面开花 Q2指引碾压市场预期财报显示,德州仪器一季度营收同比增长19%至48.3亿美元,好于分析师平均预期的45.2亿美元;营业利润为18.08亿美元,同比增长37%;净利润为15.45亿美元,同比增长31%;每股收益同比增长31%至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1433140.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388d69724620dd2f0613a5be83196093","relate_stocks":{"TXN":"德州仪器"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1433140.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2629213860","content_text":"在德州仪器公布了好于预期的第一季度业绩及出人意料强劲的第二季度指引后,该股周四收涨19.43%,创下2000年以来的最大单日涨幅。复苏行情延续!德州仪器Q1业绩全面开花 Q2指引碾压市场预期财报显示,德州仪器一季度营收同比增长19%至48.3亿美元,好于分析师平均预期的45.2亿美元;营业利润为18.08亿美元,同比增长37%;净利润为15.45亿美元,同比增长31%;每股收益同比增长31%至1.68美元,好于分析师平均预期的1.38美元。与此同时,受益于数据中心和工业设备支出的激增,德州仪器给出了出人意料强劲的业绩指引。这家模拟芯片巨头预计,第二季度营收将在50亿美元至54亿美元之间,大幅好于分析师平均预期的48.5亿美元;预计第二季度每股收益为1.77美元至2.05美元,同样大幅好于分析师平均预期的1.57美元。德州仪器是全球最大的模拟芯片和嵌入式处理器制造商,其产品执行简单但至关重要的功能,在全球应用范围极度广泛,例如在电子设备中将电源转换为不同的电压。更重要的是,模拟芯片近年来在电动汽车多种关键功能模块和系统中发挥着不可或缺的作用,包括电源管理、电池管理、传感器接口、音频和视频处理、电动机控制等。模拟芯片将声音、温度、压力、电流等真实世界信号转换为数字域,支撑汽车 ADAS、工业自动化、IoT 传感、智能电网等场景。模拟IC更换难度高、设计周期长,一旦导入即具长期粘性。MCU则是“电子设备大脑”,控制逻辑与实时运算,几乎存在于所有联网或机电系统中(家电、计量表、车身控制、医疗监护等),德州仪器旗下TI MSP430、C2000、Arm-M 系列MCU产品在低功耗与工业实时控制领域市占领先。长期稳居全球模拟芯片“一哥”位置的德州仪器市占率约19%-20%。该公司提供8万余款模拟、电源、信号链与MCU产品,向10万+大客户们供货,几乎渗透到所有终端市场(汽车、工业、通信、消费电子、医疗等)。这种“无所不在”的覆盖面,使得其财报通常被视为整体经济状况的重要风向标之一。值得一提的是,德州仪器在1月底公布的2026年第一季度指引便已展示出其复苏势头。尽管该公司2025年第四季度的业绩稍逊于市场预期,但其给出的一季度指引大幅超出市场预期。该公司连续两个季度给出大超预期的业绩指引表明,大型工业设备和汽车领域的模拟芯片与MCU需求呈现出大幅回升轨迹,从2023年“模拟需求至暗时刻”中复苏,尤其是市场期待的“AI数据中心建设热潮带动模拟芯片需求强劲复苏”的情形正在上演。德州仪器还在数据中心支出中获得了更大的份额,而数据中心支出一直受到人工智能需求的推动。虽然该公司并不生产用于AI计算机的那类高端数字处理器,但其芯片用于控制电力并执行数据中心中的其他关键功能。其数据中心业务目前每年贡献超过10亿美元销售额,这一数字在2025年增长超过60%,并在第一季度增长了90%。AI数据中心正在把模拟需求(尤其电源与信号链)“拉上一个台阶”,但方式不是GPU/HBM那种爆炸式出货,数据中心业务给德州仪器等模拟芯片厂商带来的增量将主要体现在电源管理/保护与监测类模拟器件上。相比于GPU/ASIC/HBM,数据中心模拟器件在全球AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼推动之下,更可能呈现为“更广谱、更稳健、更长周期”的复苏节奏。另一个积极信号是,德州仪器正在减少新工厂支出,从而释放更多自由现金流,并可能用于回馈投资者。在推进扩张过程中,该公司逆势而行,没有采用行业普遍的外包生产模式。其目标是加强对制造环节的控制,并通过使用更先进的生产设备,更好地把握未来需求机会。但这一战略的代价是可用于股票回购和股息支付的资金减少——而这曾是吸引投资者的重要因素之一。如今,德州仪器正在逐步减少对工厂网络的大规模投资,包括位于总部所在地达拉斯以北约一小时车程的新建工厂。该公司一季度在新工厂和设备上的支出为6.76亿美元,低于上年同期的11亿美元。其仍维持今年20亿美元至30亿美元的资本支出计划。德州仪器最近还达成了一项重要交易,以推动增长。今年2月,该公司同意以约75亿美元收购Silicon Laboratories,预计该交易将在2027年上半年完成。半导体成AI高确定性赛道在德州仪器大涨的背后,美股费城半导体指数创下有史以来最长的连涨纪录,原因是投资者预期在人工智能相关需求的推动下,半导体行业将迎来强劲增长。数据显示,费城半导体指数周四上涨1.71%,实现连续第17个交易日上涨。4月以来,该指数累计上涨近33%,有望成为自2000年2月以来单月涨幅最大的一个月。这轮上涨是半导体股引领美股大盘的最新例证。ChatGPT的推出点燃了现代人工智能时代,并推动了这一持续多年的趋势。各大公司正在大举投资与AI相关的基础设施,尤其带动了对芯片的需求增长业内人士表示:“由于人工智能的推动,需求非常旺盛,而且可以预期在可预见的未来,对AI的大规模投入还会持续。从估值和增长角度来看,该行业仍具吸引力,这不仅对半导体股票整体有利,也将利好整个市场。”数据显示, 半导体行业在2026年的收入预计将增长约57%,是整体科技行业增速的两倍,也远高于标普500指数预计的9.3%增长。美银最新调查显示,“做多半导体”已成为全球市场最热门的交易之一。高盛在最新研报中对半导体行业持积极看法,预期AI相关需求激增将推动板块进一步上涨。买方机构投资者也正在将资金从软件、互联网平台向半导体硬件产业链集中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TXN":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":556942752211928,"gmtCreate":1777000857676,"gmtModify":1777000859907,"author":{"id":"4203929645427010","authorId":"4203929645427010","name":"老雷唯微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26121a8668e93a57f493587b69c73fd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203929645427010","idStr":"4203929645427010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/556942752211928","repostId":"2629893077","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2629893077","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1776998106,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629893077?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 10:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI竞赛加速!OpenAI发布GPT-5.5“史上最智能”,Anthropic同步向英国业界推销Mythos","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629893077","media":"智通财经网","summary":"OpenAI发布GPT-5.5;与此同时,英国银行和企业正寻求采用Anthropic的Mythos。","content":"<html><head></head><body><div> <p>智通财经APP获悉,OpenAI周四发布了其最新的人工智能模型GPT-5.5。OpenAI称其GPT-5.5是迄今为止“最智能、最直观”的模型,速度更快,能够独立完成更多工作,例如编写和调试代码、在线搜索、分析数据以及创建文档和电子表格。它还可以操作软件并在不同工具之间切换,直至完成任务。与此同时,竞争对手Anthropic正在接洽英国的银行和企业,后者可能将获得的Mythos模型的使用权。</p><p>由Sam Altman领导的OpenAI表示: “与其精心管理每一步,不如将复杂的多步骤任务交给 GPT-5.5,然后信任它能够自行规划、使用工具、检查结果、应对不确定性并持续推进。在智能体编码、计算机应用、知识工作和早期科学研究等领域,GPT-5.5 的优势尤为显著——这些领域的进展依赖于跨上下文推理和长期行动。GPT-5.5 在提升智能的同时,并未牺牲速度:通常情况下,规模更大、功能更强大的模型响应速度较慢,但GPT-5.5 在实际应用中的单词延迟与GPT-5.4 相当,同时智能水平却远超后者。”</p><p>这家公司还表示,GPT-5.5 使用“明显更少的”词元来完成相同的 Codex 任务,因此效率也更高。GPT-5.5 将面向 ChatGPT 和 Codex 中的 Plus、Pro、Business 和 Enterprise 用户推出,而 GPT-5.5 Pro 将面向 ChatGPT 中的 Pro、Business 和 Enterprise 用户提供。OpenAI补充说,GPT-5.5和GPT-5.5 Pro都将“很快”在其API中提供。</p><p>而在OpenAI宣布这一消息之际,其竞争对手Anthropic 正在与英国政府“积极洽谈”,希望向多家英国企业提供其 Claude Mythos 模型的使用权限。</p><p>据报道,英国金融界领袖已开始评估与新型人工智能模型相关的潜在威胁。目前,只有部分美国企业可以通过网络安全计划Glasswing项目访问 Mythos。</p><p>合作伙伴包括 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike</a> (CRWD.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a> (PANW.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> (MSFT.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a> (CSCO.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a> (AVGO.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a> (GOOGL.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> (AAPL.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> (NVDA..US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a> (AMZN.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a> (JPM.US)和Linux基金会。</p><p>据报道,尽管一些五角大楼高级官员仍然将该公司视为潜在的供应链风险,但美国国家安全局也获得了 Mythos Preview 的使用权限。</p><p>本月初,Anthropic 发布了 Claude Mythos Preview,这是一款通用前沿模型,该公司称其为“迄今为止在编码和智能任务方面功能最强大的模型”。Anthropic补充道:“其在网络安全方面的优势直接源于其更广泛的能力:能够深入理解和修改复杂软件的模型,也能够发现并修复其漏洞。”</p><p>Mythos 发布后,据报道,美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔召集华尔街领导人召开紧急会议,因为他们担心Mythos会开启一个网络风险更大的时代。</p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI竞赛加速!OpenAI发布GPT-5.5“史上最智能”,Anthropic同步向英国业界推销Mythos</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI竞赛加速!OpenAI发布GPT-5.5“史上最智能”,Anthropic同步向英国业界推销Mythos\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-24 10:35 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1433185.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,OpenAI周四发布了其最新的人工智能模型GPT-5.5。OpenAI称其GPT-5.5是迄今为止“最智能、最直观”的模型,速度更快,能够独立完成更多工作,例如编写和调试代码、在线搜索、分析数据以及创建文档和电子表格。它还可以操作软件并在不同工具之间切换,直至完成任务。与此同时,竞争对手Anthropic正在接洽英国的银行和企业,后者可能将获得的Mythos模型的使用权。由...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1433185.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036b31d2930c33ad5b8d67f38195f24f","relate_stocks":{"AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","GPT":"Intelligent alpha atlas ETF","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1433185.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2629893077","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,OpenAI周四发布了其最新的人工智能模型GPT-5.5。OpenAI称其GPT-5.5是迄今为止“最智能、最直观”的模型,速度更快,能够独立完成更多工作,例如编写和调试代码、在线搜索、分析数据以及创建文档和电子表格。它还可以操作软件并在不同工具之间切换,直至完成任务。与此同时,竞争对手Anthropic正在接洽英国的银行和企业,后者可能将获得的Mythos模型的使用权。由Sam Altman领导的OpenAI表示: “与其精心管理每一步,不如将复杂的多步骤任务交给 GPT-5.5,然后信任它能够自行规划、使用工具、检查结果、应对不确定性并持续推进。在智能体编码、计算机应用、知识工作和早期科学研究等领域,GPT-5.5 的优势尤为显著——这些领域的进展依赖于跨上下文推理和长期行动。GPT-5.5 在提升智能的同时,并未牺牲速度:通常情况下,规模更大、功能更强大的模型响应速度较慢,但GPT-5.5 在实际应用中的单词延迟与GPT-5.4 相当,同时智能水平却远超后者。”这家公司还表示,GPT-5.5 使用“明显更少的”词元来完成相同的 Codex 任务,因此效率也更高。GPT-5.5 将面向 ChatGPT 和 Codex 中的 Plus、Pro、Business 和 Enterprise 用户推出,而 GPT-5.5 Pro 将面向 ChatGPT 中的 Pro、Business 和 Enterprise 用户提供。OpenAI补充说,GPT-5.5和GPT-5.5 Pro都将“很快”在其API中提供。而在OpenAI宣布这一消息之际,其竞争对手Anthropic 正在与英国政府“积极洽谈”,希望向多家英国企业提供其 Claude Mythos 模型的使用权限。据报道,英国金融界领袖已开始评估与新型人工智能模型相关的潜在威胁。目前,只有部分美国企业可以通过网络安全计划Glasswing项目访问 Mythos。合作伙伴包括 CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)、Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)、微软 (MSFT.US)、思科 (CSCO.US)、博通 (AVGO.US)、谷歌 (GOOGL.US)、苹果 (AAPL.US)、英伟达 (NVDA..US)、亚马逊 (AMZN.US)、摩根大通 (JPM.US)和Linux基金会。据报道,尽管一些五角大楼高级官员仍然将该公司视为潜在的供应链风险,但美国国家安全局也获得了 Mythos Preview 的使用权限。本月初,Anthropic 发布了 Claude Mythos Preview,这是一款通用前沿模型,该公司称其为“迄今为止在编码和智能任务方面功能最强大的模型”。Anthropic补充道:“其在网络安全方面的优势直接源于其更广泛的能力:能够深入理解和修改复杂软件的模型,也能够发现并修复其漏洞。”Mythos 发布后,据报道,美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔召集华尔街领导人召开紧急会议,因为他们担心Mythos会开启一个网络风险更大的时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AIPO":1.5,"ARTY":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"AGIX":1.5,"GPT":1.5,"DXYZ":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":556942423593040,"gmtCreate":1777000769154,"gmtModify":1777000771518,"author":{"id":"4203929645427010","authorId":"4203929645427010","name":"老雷唯微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26121a8668e93a57f493587b69c73fd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203929645427010","idStr":"4203929645427010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/556942423593040","repostId":"2629864080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2629864080","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776987504,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629864080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 07:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629864080","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"《大空头》原型投资人Michael Burry周四宣布建仓微软,增持Adobe、PayPal等软件股,同时买入纳指ETF及英伟达看跌期权做空科技大盘与半导体。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>《大空头》原型,知名投资者Michael Burry,正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股,一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露,他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票,并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时,他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权,以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权,显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置,呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑,对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外,4月10日,Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-24 07:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>《大空头》原型,知名投资者Michael Burry,正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股,一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露,他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票,并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时,他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权,以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权,显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置,呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑,对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外,4月10日,Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556acfb895c7cc721517dba494c0775b","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1267930573.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"AA\" (SGD) ACC A","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2764263203.CNY":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (CNYHDG) ACC","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","LU2764263039.SGD":"BGF 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EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770758","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2629864080","content_text":"《大空头》原型,知名投资者Michael Burry,正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股,一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。\n据Burry本人在Substack发文披露,他于周四买入微软股票,并同步增仓MSCI、PayPal和Adobe,进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。\n与此同时,他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权,以及英伟达和iShares半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权,显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。\n上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置,呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑,对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。\n另外,4月10日,Michael Burry买入京东和阿里巴巴股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFW":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFT":2,"NVDB":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SOXX":1.82,"NVDA":2,"DIPS":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"NVDD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}