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- 5f5485ec5f5485ec
  ·2021-04-17
  I'm more confident in $Snap Inc(SNAP)$to be honest, with a 3 year forecast. What do you all think?
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- 5f5485ec5f5485ec
  ·2021-04-17
  I also share bearish sentiments. Think Apple will double in 3+ years time barring no extraordinary events.
  Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能在3年内翻倍吗？</blockquote>
  Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo
  Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能在3年内翻倍吗？</blockquote>
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What do you all think?","listText":"I'm more confident in&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a>to be honest, with a 3 year forecast. What do you all think?","text":"I'm more confident in $Snap Inc(SNAP)$to be honest, with a 3 year forecast. What do you all think?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379031795","repostId":"1159260950","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370475184,"gmtCreate":1618623566548,"gmtModify":1634291713482,"author":{"id":"3581135590127662","authorId":"3581135590127662","name":"5f5485ec","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581135590127662","idStr":"3581135590127662"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I also share bearish sentiments. Think Apple will double in 3+ years time barring no extraordinary events.","listText":"I also share bearish sentiments. Think Apple will double in 3+ years time barring no extraordinary events.","text":"I also share bearish sentiments. Think Apple will double in 3+ years time barring no extraordinary events.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370475184","repostId":"1142633815","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能在3年内翻倍吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价终于在第二财季财报公布前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在跌破 130 美元关口近两个月后，终于突破了 130 美元关口，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想更大，预测一下股票在三年内的表现呢？</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些后面的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何可能结合起来，使 AAPL 到 2024 年达到 250 美元，年化回报率约为 25%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>First piece of the puzzle: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>难题的第一块：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.</p><p><blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我会保持简单，使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote></p><p> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益（EPS）。简单的代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果的追踪市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从 2020 年下半年约 40 倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也比历史上的平均水平高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果的市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li>  <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li>  <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li>  <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会已经扩大</li><li>与 2010 年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩对单一产品类别（iPhone）的依赖程度有所降低。</li><li>服务凭借其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我相信，35 倍左右的可持续追踪市盈率是未来几年人们合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second piece of the puzzle: earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>难题的第二块：收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote></p><p> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.</p><p><blockquote>据 Seeking Alpha 的朋友称，分析师目前预计 2024 年每股收益将达到 5.38 美元。作为参考，苹果 2020 财年的收益达到了 3.28 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们回到 2024 年 9 月，大约三年后，也就是苹果财政年度结束的时候。当时，考虑到两个假设，苹果股票的价值应该约为每股 190 美元：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li>  <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>该公司达到 2024 财年当前每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率接近当前水平，为 35 倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要想在三年内翻一番，主要得益于财务业绩，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过 7 美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快步伐，提供 22% 的增长率，而不是预期的年增长率约为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自 iPhone 和 iPad 诞生之初以来，从未出现过如此水平的三年盈利增长，这两个革命性的产品类别基本上是苹果发明的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果股票要想在三年内达到 250 美元，而估值倍数又不攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li>  <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li>  <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li>  <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>出色的 5G 超级周期支持 iPhone 销量增长可与 2010 年代初的水平相当，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，在目前没有收入的地方增加了收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备， 或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务产品以及可穿戴产品和配套产品的交叉销售，积极将苹果的用户群货币化。就服务而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加速股份回购工作。最近，苹果一直在以每年 5% 至 6% 的速度退役其股票。我估计将这一比率翻一番就足以将每股收益提高到所需的水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能在3年内翻倍吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能在3年内翻倍吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 13:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价终于在第二财季财报公布前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在跌破 130 美元关口近两个月后，终于突破了 130 美元关口，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想更大，预测一下股票在三年内的表现呢？</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些后面的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何可能结合起来，使 AAPL 到 2024 年达到 250 美元，年化回报率约为 25%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>First piece of the puzzle: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>难题的第一块：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.</p><p><blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我会保持简单，使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote></p><p> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益（EPS）。简单的代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果的追踪市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从 2020 年下半年约 40 倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也比历史上的平均水平高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果的市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li>  <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li>  <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li>  <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会已经扩大</li><li>与 2010 年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩对单一产品类别（iPhone）的依赖程度有所降低。</li><li>服务凭借其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我相信，35 倍左右的可持续追踪市盈率是未来几年人们合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second piece of the puzzle: earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>难题的第二块：收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote></p><p> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.</p><p><blockquote>据 Seeking Alpha 的朋友称，分析师目前预计 2024 年每股收益将达到 5.38 美元。作为参考，苹果 2020 财年的收益达到了 3.28 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们回到 2024 年 9 月，大约三年后，也就是苹果财政年度结束的时候。当时，考虑到两个假设，苹果股票的价值应该约为每股 190 美元：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li>  <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>该公司达到 2024 财年当前每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率接近当前水平，为 35 倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要想在三年内翻一番，主要得益于财务业绩，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过 7 美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快步伐，提供 22% 的增长率，而不是预期的年增长率约为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自 iPhone 和 iPad 诞生之初以来，从未出现过如此水平的三年盈利增长，这两个革命性的产品类别基本上是苹果发明的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果股票要想在三年内达到 250 美元，而估值倍数又不攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li>  <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li>  <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li>  <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>出色的 5G 超级周期支持 iPhone 销量增长可与 2010 年代初的水平相当，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，在目前没有收入的地方增加了收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备， 或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务产品以及可穿戴产品和配套产品的交叉销售，积极将苹果的用户群货币化。就服务而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加速股份回购工作。最近，苹果一直在以每年 5% 至 6% 的速度退役其股票。我估计将这一比率翻一番就足以将每股收益提高到所需的水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}