Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?

TheStreet2021-04-16

Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years? Apple stockhas ...

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gneh
·2021-04-17
Apple is a good stock but currently is trading at all time high. Looking at its outlook, it seems to remain profitable and have very healthy finance to bring them further into the business
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5f5485ec
·2021-04-17
I also share bearish sentiments. Think Apple will double in 3+ years time barring no extraordinary events.
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T3M1N4T0R
·2021-04-16
Based on existing trend, I think Apple will likely only double in 3 years.
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- Clumsypig:
  不好说，服务这块潜力很大，还有汽车
  2021-04-16
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Whyeloon
·2021-04-16
I would be estatic when it happens..but expect it to be a bumpy ride...😀
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TiggyTrader
·2021-04-16
Apple cheong time.....
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TKe
·2021-04-16
Looking forward to it!
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- TKe:
  Up! Up! Up!
  2021-04-18
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PowerUP
·2021-04-16
I cetainly hope so
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我不是股神我是赌神
·2021-04-16
Maybe
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- Juzanub:
  Isit? Like and clmment
  2021-04-16
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- Huathk:
  Gd
  2021-04-16
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- Alvinwu:
  Good
  2021-04-16
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Loverider20
·2021-04-16
Likely
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- Juzanub:
  Help out a sister like and comment
  2021-04-16
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- Xiaorobo:
  😊
  2021-04-16
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Jsiong
·2021-04-16
Always overvalued
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- Xiaorobo:
  😊
  2021-04-16
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xoxoll
·2021-04-16
Help me like and comment
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- Juzanub:
  Help out a sostee like and comment
  2021-04-16
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absolute1304
·2021-04-16
Hopefully $200 soon
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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- Taylorx:
  Slightly but theres a possibility
  2021-04-16
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BlessedCyrus
·2021-04-16
Like post please. Thanks!
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- Bentez:
  Commented! Please comment back
  2021-04-16
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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Bentez
·2021-04-16
Hi please like and comment
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- BlessedCyrus:
  Good one thanks! [Happy]
  2021-04-16
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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5e2af9fa
·2021-04-16
Nice oner
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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Jrrr92
·2021-04-16
Yes sure will!! Hold it!! Like and comment tosupport!!
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- Irene104:
  Ok, done. Pls like & comment back. Thanks.
  2021-04-16
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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- Jrrr92回复xoxoll:
  Like
  2021-04-16
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Kirix
·2021-04-16
Sick
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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Starbless
·2021-04-16
Already seems high in my opinion
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- Fatboy79:
  Sky is the limit, all in
  2021-04-16
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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- Starbless:
  Done
  2021-04-16
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Fatboy79
·2021-04-16
Selling my house to buy Apple now
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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- Clumsypig:
  别太激动[捂脸]
  2021-04-16
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真的钻石手
·2021-04-16
Buy Apple, but buy more $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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- khe:
  Yes
  2021-04-16
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- xoxoll:
  Help me like and comment
  2021-04-16
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For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAPL","symbol_name":"苹果","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","article_id":"1142633815","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"thestreet.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"苹果股价3年内能翻倍吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":379914855,"gmtCreate":1618652142577,"gmtModify":1634291530185,"author":{"id":"3581305522347138","authorId":"3581305522347138","name":"gneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea19968f55648d955b9ad2de4952c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581305522347138","idStr":"3581305522347138"},"htmlText":"Apple is a good stock but currently is trading at all time high. Looking at its outlook, it seems to remain profitable and have very healthy finance to bring them further into the business","listText":"Apple is a good stock but currently is trading at all time high. Looking at its outlook, it seems to remain profitable and have very healthy finance to bring them further into the business","text":"Apple is a good stock but currently is trading at all time high. Looking at its outlook, it seems to remain profitable and have very healthy finance to bring them further into the business","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379914855","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370475184,"gmtCreate":1618623566548,"gmtModify":1634291713482,"author":{"id":"3581135590127662","authorId":"3581135590127662","name":"5f5485ec","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581135590127662","idStr":"3581135590127662"},"htmlText":"I also share bearish sentiments. Think Apple will double in 3+ years time barring no extraordinary events.","listText":"I also share bearish sentiments. Think Apple will double in 3+ years time barring no extraordinary events.","text":"I also share bearish sentiments. Think Apple will double in 3+ years time barring no extraordinary events.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370475184","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370102731,"gmtCreate":1618559504123,"gmtModify":1634292084728,"author":{"id":"3581651431761930","authorId":"3581651431761930","name":"T3M1N4T0R","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581651431761930","idStr":"3581651431761930"},"htmlText":"Based on existing trend, I think Apple will likely only double in 3 years.","listText":"Based on existing trend, I think Apple will likely only double in 3 years.","text":"Based on existing trend, I think Apple will likely only double in 3 years.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370102731","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4051945,"gmtCreate":1618563273603,"gmtModify":1618563273603,"authorId":3494281781797251,"author":{"id":3494281781797251,"idStr":"3494281781797251","authorId":3494281781797251,"name":"Clumsypig","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b15f83d2e489f283f51b78126066b4e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370102731,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"不好说，服务这块潜力很大，还有汽车","text":"不好说，服务这块潜力很大，还有汽车","html":"不好说，服务这块潜力很大，还有汽车"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370371571,"gmtCreate":1618557983293,"gmtModify":1634292093875,"author":{"id":"3559128077154435","authorId":"3559128077154435","name":"Whyeloon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44cc3fba457549bd6dbe449c8aa6c640","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3559128077154435","idStr":"3559128077154435"},"htmlText":"I would be estatic when it happens..but expect it to be a bumpy ride...😀","listText":"I would be estatic when it happens..but expect it to be a bumpy ride...😀","text":"I would be estatic when it happens..but expect it to be a bumpy ride...😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370371571","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370358094,"gmtCreate":1618555717318,"gmtModify":1634292104777,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"htmlText":"Apple cheong time.....&nbsp;","listText":"Apple cheong time.....&nbsp;","text":"Apple cheong time.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370358094","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370364390,"gmtCreate":1618553727010,"gmtModify":1634292114697,"author":{"id":"3581501420003989","authorId":"3581501420003989","name":"TKe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1667ad4d8c49a39e16e5852a89f233a6","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581501420003989","idStr":"3581501420003989"},"htmlText":"Looking forward to it!","listText":"Looking forward to it!","text":"Looking forward to it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370364390","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4061985,"gmtCreate":1618698169106,"gmtModify":1635737116933,"authorId":3581501420003989,"author":{"id":3581501420003989,"idStr":"3581501420003989","authorId":3581501420003989,"name":"TKe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1667ad4d8c49a39e16e5852a89f233a6","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370364390,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Up! Up! Up!","text":"Up! Up! Up!","html":"Up! Up! Up!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370368608,"gmtCreate":1618553463604,"gmtModify":1634292117579,"author":{"id":"3565099806679305","authorId":"3565099806679305","name":"PowerUP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54fe75f3f4a0958cbed1a78618066f64","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3565099806679305","idStr":"3565099806679305"},"htmlText":"I cetainly hope so","listText":"I cetainly hope so","text":"I cetainly hope so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370368608","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370387593,"gmtCreate":1618552873912,"gmtModify":1634292120127,"author":{"id":"3581643164424811","authorId":"3581643164424811","name":"我不是股神我是赌神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e971ed6e3f7b6495a07f7b9b5007ee5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581643164424811","idStr":"3581643164424811"},"htmlText":"Maybe","listText":"Maybe","text":"Maybe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370387593","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050943,"gmtCreate":1618552959943,"gmtModify":1635737900214,"authorId":3577089547193180,"author":{"id":3577089547193180,"idStr":"3577089547193180","authorId":3577089547193180,"name":"Juzanub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b956e444c34e7992ebad8f9c4d5f7e72","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370387593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Isit? Like and clmment ","text":"Isit? Like and clmment ","html":"Isit? Like and clmment "},{"id":4050953,"gmtCreate":1618553037961,"gmtModify":1635737899228,"authorId":3573472992263411,"author":{"id":3573472992263411,"idStr":"3573472992263411","authorId":3573472992263411,"name":"Huathk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c7168c646d9ea6805194ed0003f1cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370387593,"type":1,"supId":4050943,"prevId":0,"content":"Gd","text":"Gd","html":"Gd"},{"id":4051013,"gmtCreate":1618553634758,"gmtModify":1635737894994,"authorId":3577748298116453,"author":{"id":3577748298116453,"idStr":"3577748298116453","authorId":3577748298116453,"name":"Alvinwu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933e5bef36fb7b59c386d71a110572f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370387593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"},{"id":4051200,"gmtCreate":1618556045129,"gmtModify":1635737881210,"authorId":3570517865216539,"author":{"id":3570517865216539,"idStr":"3570517865216539","authorId":3570517865216539,"name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370387593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370387993,"gmtCreate":1618552810612,"gmtModify":1634292120487,"author":{"id":"3574480858392654","authorId":"3574480858392654","name":"Loverider20","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f899f5a7bf5841f79cd67fcba1516f3c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3574480858392654","idStr":"3574480858392654"},"htmlText":"Likely","listText":"Likely","text":"Likely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370387993","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050944,"gmtCreate":1618552966485,"gmtModify":1635737900104,"authorId":3577089547193180,"author":{"id":3577089547193180,"idStr":"3577089547193180","authorId":3577089547193180,"name":"Juzanub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b956e444c34e7992ebad8f9c4d5f7e72","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370387993,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help out a sister like and comment","text":"Help out a sister like and comment","html":"Help out a sister like and comment"},{"id":4050957,"gmtCreate":1618553058696,"gmtModify":1635737898900,"authorId":3573630778989709,"author":{"id":3573630778989709,"idStr":"3573630778989709","authorId":3573630778989709,"name":"Xiaorobo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d102c95de92f61cb5397323e0b24a79e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370387993,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😊","text":"😊","html":"😊"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370382199,"gmtCreate":1618552522811,"gmtModify":1631893121491,"author":{"id":"3579770956968787","authorId":"3579770956968787","name":"Jsiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24f564dd0693f54756caa692d38169d7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3579770956968787","idStr":"3579770956968787"},"htmlText":"Always overvalued","listText":"Always overvalued","text":"Always overvalued","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370382199","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050958,"gmtCreate":1618553064535,"gmtModify":1631893121492,"authorId":3573630778989709,"author":{"id":3573630778989709,"idStr":"3573630778989709","authorId":3573630778989709,"name":"Xiaorobo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d102c95de92f61cb5397323e0b24a79e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370382199,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😊","text":"😊","html":"😊"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370388693,"gmtCreate":1618552336712,"gmtModify":1634292122482,"author":{"id":"3572249185724220","authorId":"3572249185724220","name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3572249185724220","idStr":"3572249185724220"},"htmlText":"Help me like and comment","listText":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370388693","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050945,"gmtCreate":1618552976389,"gmtModify":1635737899995,"authorId":3577089547193180,"author":{"id":3577089547193180,"idStr":"3577089547193180","authorId":3577089547193180,"name":"Juzanub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b956e444c34e7992ebad8f9c4d5f7e72","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370388693,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help out a sostee like and comment","text":"Help out a sostee like and comment","html":"Help out a sostee like and comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370383136,"gmtCreate":1618552129025,"gmtModify":1634292123790,"author":{"id":"3559300510953615","authorId":"3559300510953615","name":"absolute1304","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d96043ae27a8e1b967f1ea4567d7f7","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3559300510953615","idStr":"3559300510953615"},"htmlText":"Hopefully $200 soon","listText":"Hopefully $200 soon","text":"Hopefully $200 soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370383136","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050860,"gmtCreate":1618552346281,"gmtModify":1635737907147,"authorId":3572249185724220,"author":{"id":3572249185724220,"idStr":"3572249185724220","authorId":3572249185724220,"name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370383136,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","html":"Help me like and comment"},{"id":4051293,"gmtCreate":1618557040188,"gmtModify":1635737874270,"authorId":3565441185903042,"author":{"id":3565441185903042,"idStr":"3565441185903042","authorId":3565441185903042,"name":"Taylorx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84412f9fbac6499d2be3af213b212654","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370383136,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Slightly but theres a possibility ","text":"Slightly but theres a possibility ","html":"Slightly but theres a possibility "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370389082,"gmtCreate":1618552002446,"gmtModify":1634292124611,"author":{"id":"3570768873457401","authorId":"3570768873457401","name":"BlessedCyrus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb301da67b54f9fd5d2fd2626595aada","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3570768873457401","idStr":"3570768873457401"},"htmlText":"Like post please. Thanks!","listText":"Like post please. Thanks!","text":"Like post please. Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370389082","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050821,"gmtCreate":1618552064002,"gmtModify":1635737909970,"authorId":3578566071266225,"author":{"id":3578566071266225,"idStr":"3578566071266225","authorId":3578566071266225,"name":"Bentez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93ad51cf717a4ebcbd8a750e1bb06d7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370389082,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Commented! Please comment back","text":"Commented! Please comment back","html":"Commented! Please comment back"},{"id":4050861,"gmtCreate":1618552355588,"gmtModify":1635737907037,"authorId":3572249185724220,"author":{"id":3572249185724220,"idStr":"3572249185724220","authorId":3572249185724220,"name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370389082,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","html":"Help me like and comment"},{"id":4050864,"gmtCreate":1618552363757,"gmtModify":1635737906710,"authorId":3572249185724220,"author":{"id":3572249185724220,"idStr":"3572249185724220","authorId":3572249185724220,"name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370389082,"type":1,"supId":4050821,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","html":"Help me like and comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370380406,"gmtCreate":1618551996305,"gmtModify":1634292124849,"author":{"id":"3578566071266225","authorId":"3578566071266225","name":"Bentez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93ad51cf717a4ebcbd8a750e1bb06d7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3578566071266225","idStr":"3578566071266225"},"htmlText":"Hi please like and comment","listText":"Hi please like and comment","text":"Hi please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370380406","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050827,"gmtCreate":1618552134956,"gmtModify":1635737909428,"authorId":3570768873457401,"author":{"id":3570768873457401,"idStr":"3570768873457401","authorId":3570768873457401,"name":"BlessedCyrus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb301da67b54f9fd5d2fd2626595aada","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370380406,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good one thanks! [Happy]","text":"Good one thanks! [Happy]","html":"Good one thanks! [Happy]"},{"id":4050865,"gmtCreate":1618552370500,"gmtModify":1635737906601,"authorId":3572249185724220,"author":{"id":3572249185724220,"idStr":"3572249185724220","authorId":3572249185724220,"name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370380406,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","html":"Help me like and comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370314459,"gmtCreate":1618551825071,"gmtModify":1634292125870,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"htmlText":"Nice oner","listText":"Nice oner","text":"Nice oner","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370314459","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050866,"gmtCreate":1618552379861,"gmtModify":1635737906492,"authorId":3572249185724220,"author":{"id":3572249185724220,"idStr":"3572249185724220","authorId":3572249185724220,"name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370314459,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","html":"Help me like and comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370314095,"gmtCreate":1618551732517,"gmtModify":1634292126351,"author":{"id":"3561534918172425","authorId":"3561534918172425","name":"Jrrr92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3713f77c17599af04b8943281769ec65","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3561534918172425","idStr":"3561534918172425"},"htmlText":"Yes sure will!! Hold it!! Like and comment tosupport!!","listText":"Yes sure will!! Hold it!! Like and comment tosupport!!","text":"Yes sure will!! Hold it!! Like and comment tosupport!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370314095","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050801,"gmtCreate":1618551820886,"gmtModify":1635737911272,"authorId":3579485832735627,"author":{"id":3579485832735627,"idStr":"3579485832735627","authorId":3579485832735627,"name":"Irene104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51a81271b5c1b4f1ca7b728f547fc3ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370314095,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok, done. Pls like &amp; comment back. Thanks.","text":"Ok, done. Pls like &amp; comment back. Thanks.","html":"Ok, done. Pls like &amp; comment back. 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For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050870,"gmtCreate":1618552395352,"gmtModify":1635737906165,"authorId":3572249185724220,"author":{"id":3572249185724220,"idStr":"3572249185724220","authorId":3572249185724220,"name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370312679,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","html":"Help me like and comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370312370,"gmtCreate":1618551530890,"gmtModify":1634292127799,"author":{"id":"3579823532781270","authorId":"3579823532781270","name":"Starbless","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b24864d2bf404491b55d2a9f4f23d92","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3579823532781270","idStr":"3579823532781270"},"htmlText":"Already seems high in my&nbsp;opinion&nbsp;","listText":"Already seems high in my&nbsp;opinion&nbsp;","text":"Already seems high in my opinion","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370312370","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050796,"gmtCreate":1618551750558,"gmtModify":1635737911706,"authorId":3560390730639874,"author":{"id":3560390730639874,"idStr":"3560390730639874","authorId":3560390730639874,"name":"Fatboy79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f550c98b42b2fd97e2989fbf50af5b9b","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370312370,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Sky is the limit, all in","text":"Sky is the limit, all in","html":"Sky is the limit, all in"},{"id":4050873,"gmtCreate":1618552402394,"gmtModify":1635737905838,"authorId":3572249185724220,"author":{"id":3572249185724220,"idStr":"3572249185724220","authorId":3572249185724220,"name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370312370,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","html":"Help me like and comment"},{"id":4051898,"gmtCreate":1618562895672,"gmtModify":1635737837854,"authorId":3579823532781270,"author":{"id":3579823532781270,"idStr":"3579823532781270","authorId":3579823532781270,"name":"Starbless","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b24864d2bf404491b55d2a9f4f23d92","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370312370,"type":1,"supId":4050873,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370312047,"gmtCreate":1618551523289,"gmtModify":1634292127920,"author":{"id":"3560390730639874","authorId":"3560390730639874","name":"Fatboy79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f550c98b42b2fd97e2989fbf50af5b9b","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3560390730639874","idStr":"3560390730639874"},"htmlText":"Selling my house to buy Apple now","listText":"Selling my house to buy Apple now","text":"Selling my house to buy Apple now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370312047","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050876,"gmtCreate":1618552409733,"gmtModify":1635737905621,"authorId":3572249185724220,"author":{"id":3572249185724220,"idStr":"3572249185724220","authorId":3572249185724220,"name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370312047,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","html":"Help me like and comment"},{"id":4051730,"gmtCreate":1618561679109,"gmtModify":1618561679109,"authorId":3494281781797251,"author":{"id":3494281781797251,"idStr":"3494281781797251","authorId":3494281781797251,"name":"Clumsypig","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b15f83d2e489f283f51b78126066b4e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370312047,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"别太激动[捂脸]","text":"别太激动[捂脸]","html":"别太激动[捂脸]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370316690,"gmtCreate":1618551472810,"gmtModify":1634292128261,"author":{"id":"3574980150965538","authorId":"3574980150965538","name":"真的钻石手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/394063a289e727c8c5c2734207c9aabd","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3574980150965538","idStr":"3574980150965538"},"htmlText":"Buy Apple, but buy more <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"Buy Apple, but buy more <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>","text":"Buy Apple, but buy more $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370316690","repostId":1142633815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-16 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?<blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?<blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.<blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.<blockquote>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> First piece of the puzzle: valuation<blockquote>第一块拼图：估值</blockquote> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.<blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.<blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\">Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.<blockquote>图2：苹果的市盈率。</blockquote> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:<blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li> <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li> <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li> <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.<blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote> Second piece of the puzzle: earnings<blockquote>第二块拼图：收益</blockquote> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.<blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.<blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:<blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li> <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.<blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.<blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:<blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li> <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li> <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li> <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4050786,"gmtCreate":1618551667744,"gmtModify":1635737912350,"authorId":3581005833050650,"author":{"id":3581005833050650,"idStr":"3581005833050650","authorId":3581005833050650,"name":"khe","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370316690,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"},{"id":4050877,"gmtCreate":1618552418574,"gmtModify":1635737905511,"authorId":3572249185724220,"author":{"id":3572249185724220,"idStr":"3572249185724220","authorId":3572249185724220,"name":"xoxoll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed65c2962af2a6fbd414f4d6fe9e378","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":370316690,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","html":"Help me like and comment"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":23,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}