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- YappYapp
  ·2021-12-16
  Disagree
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- YappYapp
  ·2021-11-02
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- YappYapp
  ·2021-11-02
  Good
  Nio Vs. XPeng Vs. Li Auto: How October EV Deliveries Stack Up<blockquote>蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车：10 月份电动汽车交付量如何</blockquote>
  Chinese electric startup stalwarts listed in the U.S. reported October delivery scorecards Monday, a
  Nio Vs. XPeng Vs. Li Auto: How October EV Deliveries Stack Up<blockquote>蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车：10 月份电动汽车交付量如何</blockquote>
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- YappYapp
  ·2021-10-31
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- YappYapp
  ·2021-09-20
  Amazing
  Alphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time<blockquote>Alphabet股票：这次不要错过</blockquote>
  Summary GOOG is pulling back. I see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend. The
  Alphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time<blockquote>Alphabet股票：这次不要错过</blockquote>
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- YappYapp
  ·2021-09-15
  :(
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- YappYapp
  ·2021-09-11
  $Apple(AAPL)$Get ready to fly
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- YappYapp
  ·2021-09-08
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Road to $800 soon 💎
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- YappYapp
  ·2021-09-06
  $AMD(AMD)$Help like thanks
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- YappYapp
  ·2021-09-06
  $Apple(AAPL)$Like like like 👍
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10:34","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nio Vs. XPeng Vs. Li Auto: How October EV Deliveries Stack Up<blockquote>蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车：10 月份电动汽车交付量如何</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105256997","media":"Benzinga ","summary":"Chinese electric startup stalwarts listed in the U.S. reported October delivery scorecards Monday, a","content":"<p><div> Chinese electric startup stalwarts listed in the U.S. reported October delivery scorecards Monday, and the numbers had contrasting tales to tell about the automakers' performance for the month. How ...</p><p><blockquote><div>在美国上市的中国电动初创公司 stalwarts 周一公布了 10 月份的交付记分卡，这些数字讲述了汽车制造商当月业绩的截然不同的故事。如何……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-li-203053591.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-li-203053591.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio Vs. XPeng Vs. Li Auto: How October EV Deliveries Stack Up<blockquote>蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车：10 月份电动汽车交付量如何</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio Vs. XPeng Vs. Li Auto: How October EV Deliveries Stack Up<blockquote>蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车：10 月份电动汽车交付量如何</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-02 10:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Chinese electric startup stalwarts listed in the U.S. reported October delivery scorecards Monday, and the numbers had contrasting tales to tell about the automakers' performance for the month. How ...</p><p><blockquote><div>在美国上市的中国电动初创公司 stalwarts 周一公布了 10 月份的交付记分卡，这些数字讲述了汽车制造商当月业绩的截然不同的故事。如何……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-li-203053591.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-li-203053591.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-li-203053591.html\">Benzinga </a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏集团","02015":"理想汽车-W","NIO":"蔚来","09868":"小鹏集团-W"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-li-203053591.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105256997","content_text":"Chinese electric startup stalwarts listed in the U.S. reported October delivery scorecards Monday, and the numbers had contrasting tales to tell about the automakers' performance for the month.\nHow The Trio Of Chinese EV Stocks Fared:NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO) reported deliveries of 3,667 vehicles in October, down 27.5% year-over-year. On a month-over-month basis, the drop was a steeper 65.5%.\nXPeng Inc.(NYSE:XPEV)'s October deliveries came in at a strong 10,138 vehicles, marking the second straight month of 10,000 or more deliveries.\nOctober's numbers marked a 233% year-over-year jump but a modest 2.63% sequential drop.\nLi Auto Inc.(NASDAQ:LI)'s October deliveries climbed 107.2% year-over-year and 7.8% month-over-month to 7,649 units.\nModel-wise Breakup:Nio's October deliveries comprised 218 ES8s, 2,528 ES6s and 921 EC6s. In September, the company sold 1,978 ES8s, 5,260 ES6s and 3,390 EC6s.\nXPeng delivered 6,044 P7 sedans, representing a 187% year-over-year increase, 3,657 G3 and G3i SUVs, and 437 P5 smart family sedans, a model that waslaunchedin September.\nThe company noted that G3 deliveries marked a record total. It also noted the order backlog for P5, its newest vehicle model, remained solid.\nLi Auto has a lone model in its vehicle lineup, going by the name Li ONE.\nCumulative Year-To-Date Deliveries:For the 10 months ended in October, Nio delivered a cumulative 70,062 vehicles compared to XPeng's 66,542 and Li Auto's 62,919.\nManufacturing Line Upgrade Spoils Nio's Party:Nio noted that October deliveries were significantly impacted by reduction in production volume, stemming from the restructuring and upgradation of manufacturing lines as well as preparations for new product introduction. The disruption occurred between Sept. 28 to Oct. 15, it added.\nThe company said supply chain volatilities also affected production.\nOn a positive note, the company said new orders were at a record high in October, reflecting increasing user demand.\nNio is expected to begin deliveries of its much-awaited ET7 sedan in early 2022. The company has also begun selling cars in Norway, its first overseas destination.\nXPeng Prevails Despite Challenges:XPeng said momentum remained strong in October despite the semiconductor shortages. The company also pointed to strong market appeal for its newly launched P5 sedan.\nTo circumvent the supply chain constraints, XPeng is reportedly planning to ship its new P5 model without millimeter wave radar units that support its ADAS due to chip shortages.\nXPeng also said it continues to expand its supercharging facilities to address increasing customer demand. XPeng's branded supercharging network spans urban commuting thoroughfares and highways through 439 stations across 121 Chinese cities as of Sept. 30.\nLi Auto's Abounding Orders:Li Auto said its order intake exceeded 14,500 units in October. The company also said it is working with its suppliers to fully restore the millimeter wave radar supply, aiming to shorten the waiting time of delivery to users.\nAs of Oct. 31, 2021, the company has 162 retail stores in 86 cities, as well as 223 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 165 cities.\nNio shares were up 3.62% to $40.84 at the close Monday, XPeng was 2.64% higher at $47.87 and Li Auto lost 0.89% to $32.34.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"02015":0.9,"09868":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840718027,"gmtCreate":1635687420085,"gmtModify":1635687420085,"author":{"id":"3576499401276243","authorId":"3576499401276243","name":"Yapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a63c165f0e144bfe64b0c1c40860cfe4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576499401276243","authorIdStr":"3576499401276243"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840718027","repostId":"1104228860","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887778760,"gmtCreate":1632103341150,"gmtModify":1632802827112,"author":{"id":"3576499401276243","authorId":"3576499401276243","name":"Yapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a63c165f0e144bfe64b0c1c40860cfe4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576499401276243","authorIdStr":"3576499401276243"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazing","listText":"Amazing","text":"Amazing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887778760","repostId":"1109134681","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109134681","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632101677,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109134681?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 09:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time<blockquote>Alphabet股票：这次不要错过</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109134681","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGOOG is pulling back.\nI see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.\nThe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GOOG is pulling back.</li>  <li>I see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.</li>  <li>The fundamental picture continues to improve and all signs point to more highs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d4441cfb915dc5aa9a0e9e8ce1f215\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>谷歌正在撤退。</li><li>我认为这是一个刷新的停顿，而不是上升趋势的结束。</li><li>基本面继续改善，所有迹象都指向更高的高点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in June, I said search legend&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)&nbsp;was a&nbsp;buy&nbsp;before it broke out to new highs. At the time, the stock was trading for $2,451, and it has since risen about 15% to new highs. I take credit for my bad calls and losses, so permit me to spike the ball in the endzone here for a good one.</p><p><blockquote>早在六月，我就说过搜索传奇<b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）在突破新高之前被买入。当时，该股交易价格为 2,451 美元，此后已上涨约 15%，创下新高。我把我糟糕的评级和失败归功于我，所以请允许我在这里的端区扣球。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks that have soared like Alphabet tend to take breathers from time to time, and right now, I think that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Selling was rampant across the whole market last week, but it appears to me Alphabet is setting up for another pause that refreshes before continuing its run higher.</p><p><blockquote>像Alphabet这样飙升的股票往往会时不时地喘口气，而现在，我认为这正是我们所看到的。上周整个市场的抛售猖獗，但在我看来，Alphabet正在准备再次暂停，然后再继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eebf692d507eedac08fd13298641399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, the price chart looks like it is almost made up; that’s how excellent Alphabet has been at moving from lower-left to upper-right. Any chart that looks like this has to catch your attention, and it has certainly caught mine.</p><p><blockquote>首先，价格图表看起来几乎是虚构的；这就是Alphabet从左下角到右上角的出色表现。任何看起来像这样的图表都必须引起你的注意，它肯定引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p> We can see the moving averages have been moving higher, completely uninterrupted by whatever the news of the day has been over the past year, and simply chugging ever higher. The current move down, while small, represents what I think is another chance to pick up Alphabet at a small discount before it makes yet more highs, which I am quite sure it will.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到移动平均线一直在走高，完全没有受到过去一年当天新闻的干扰，而且一直在走高。目前的下跌虽然幅度很小，但我认为这是在Alphabet创下更多高点之前以小幅折扣买入的另一个机会，我很确定它会创下更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> I said back in June that any test of the 50-day moving average would be a massive buying chance, and I still wholeheartedly believe that. We haven’t seen one since May, but it looks like we may get one this week with the stock having sliced through its 20-day exponential moving average. I’ll repeat what I said three months ago: if we get a test of the 50-day moving average, back up the truck.</p><p><blockquote>我早在六月份就说过，任何对 50 天移动平均线的测试都将是一个巨大的买入机会，我仍然全心全意地相信这一点。自 5 月份以来，我们还没有看到过这样的情况，但看起来本周我们可能会看到这样的情况，因为该股已经突破了 20 天指数移动平均线。我再说一遍我三个月前说过的话： 如果我们测试了 50 天移动平均线，那就倒车。</blockquote></p><p> The accumulation/distribution line remains bullish, but the high volume selling we saw last week has caused it to decline a bit. I’m not bothered with that because the trend is still higher, but it is something to watch.</p><p><blockquote>积累/分销线仍然看涨，但我们上周看到的大量抛售导致其略有下降。我对此并不介意，因为趋势仍然较高，但这值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> Momentum is telling a similar story where we’ve seen a pullback with the share price, but the PPO is still well into positive territory and the 14-day RSI remains at the centerline. Unless something drastically changes, I see Alphabet’s selling as a pause that refreshes, and not the end of the uptrend.</p><p><blockquote>Momentum 也讲述了一个类似的故事，我们看到股价有所回调，但 PPO 仍处于正值区域，14 天 RSI 仍处于中线。除非情况发生巨大变化，否则我认为Alphabet的抛售是一个令人耳目一新的停顿，而不是上升趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, I’ve annotated instances of high volume selling that have occurred this year on the chart, and each one of them has been a great chance to pick up Alphabet for a discount. Like all the rest of the evidence I’ve presented, that doesn’t make a guarantee, but it sure looks like another chance to pick up the stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我在图表上标注了今年出现的大量销售情况，每一次销售都是以折扣价购买Alphabet的好机会。就像我提供的所有其他证据一样，这并不能保证，但这看起来确实是又一次买入股票的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alphabet is still winning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet仍在获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> I laid out some of the fundamental cases in the&nbsp;linked article&nbsp;and nothing has changed on that front, so I won’t reiterate points I’ve already made. But let’s take a look at another piece of the puzzle that points to higher prices ahead, and that is with respect to margins.</p><p><blockquote>我在链接的文章中列举了一些基本案例，这方面没有任何变化，所以我不会重复我已经提出的观点。但让我们来看看另一个谜题，它指向未来价格上涨，那就是利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet continues to see rising amounts of search and ad activity from both businesses and consumers as the world’s economy continues to heal from the pandemic. The company even continues to see gains from forex translation, although a recently strengthened US dollar may put a lid on that for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>随着世界经济继续从大流行病中复苏，Alphabet企业和消费者的搜索和广告活动数量持续上升。该公司甚至继续从外汇换算中获得收益，尽管最近美元走强可能会暂时阻碍这一增长。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet continues to see rising ad spending, which is what you’d expect to see in a strengthening economy, and the only real risk to that would be another lockdown phase from the virus. I personally don’t think we’re in the position to need to lockdown again, given the world is infinitely better prepared for a COVID outbreak today than it was 18 months ago. Lockdown was the only option when the virus spread initially, but with vaccines nearly everywhere, masks, social distancing, etc., there simply isn’t a need for that any longer. That means the economic recovery should continue, all else equal, and that means ad spending should continue to be robust for Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的广告支出持续上升，这在经济走强的情况下是可以预期的，而唯一真正的风险将是病毒的另一个封锁阶段。我个人认为我们不需要再次封锁，因为与 18 个月前相比，当今世界对 COVID 爆发的准备要充分得多。病毒最初传播时，封锁是唯一的选择，但随着疫苗、口罩、社会距离等几乎无处不在，根本没有必要再这样做了。这意味着在其他条件相同的情况下，经济复苏应该会继续，这意味着Alphabet的广告支出应该会继续强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also doing things like using free cash flow to buy back stock, which is the sign of a maturing tech company. It also is a sign that the company’s profitability has reached such massive heights that the Board literally cannot find a use for it, and is therefore buying back its own stock. Other titans like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)are in a similar boat, and it’s a<i>very</i>nice boat to be in.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet还在做一些事情，比如利用自由现金流回购股票，这是一家成熟的科技公司的标志。这也表明，公司的盈利能力已经达到了如此巨大的高度，以至于董事会实在找不到用处，因此正在回购自己的股票。苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）等其他巨头也处于类似的境地，而且<i>非常</i>不错的船。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company’s YouTube business continues to be a consistent winner, but to be honest, there are no segments within Alphabet that<i>aren’t</i>winners. Search is going to continue to be the elephant in the room for the years to come, but the fact that Alphabet can grow so consistently in so many ways is astounding, and why its share price keeps rising.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的 YouTube 业务一直是赢家，但说实话，Alphabet内部没有任何细分市场<i>不是</i>赢家。未来几年，搜索仍将是房间里的大象，但Alphabet能够在如此多的方面如此持续地增长，这一事实令人震惊，这也是其股价不断上涨的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s take a look at margins given we’ve gotten a backdrop on why revenue is growing, and should continue to grow. Below, I’ve plotted trailing-twelve-months operating margins to get us going.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看利润率，因为我们已经了解了为什么收入会增长，而且应该会继续增长。下面，我绘制了过去 12 个月的营业利润率，以帮助我们了解情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37002f4add35ef73fb8d1a36c7b661f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the growth in operating margins coming out of the pandemic has been<i>enormous</i>. Operating margins bottomed in the area of 20% of revenue, but have risen by nearly half in the quarters since. Keep in mind we’re looking at a four-quarter average above; the growth Alphabet is seeing in margins is absolutely outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，疫情带来的营业利润率增长<i>巨大的</i>营业利润率在收入的20%左右触底，但在此后的几个季度里上升了近一半。请记住，我们上面看到的是四个季度的平均值；Alphabet的利润率增长绝对出色。</blockquote></p><p> How is this happening? In short, it is happening with operating leverage. That is the impact of rising revenue, along with stagnant or declining expenses. In practice, it means that each incremental dollar of revenue means a higher amount of profit per dollar of revenue, which is what you see above because the incremental revenue carries with it lower relative expenses. If we look at the company’s gross margins and SG&amp;A costs below, we can see this at work.</p><p><blockquote>这是怎么发生的？简而言之，它发生在经营杠杆上。这是收入增长以及支出停滞或下降的影响。实际上，这意味着每一美元的收入增量意味着每美元收入的利润更高，这就是你在上面看到的，因为增量收入带来了较低的相对费用。如果我们看看下面该公司的毛利率和 SG&amp;A 成本，就会发现这一点正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235c19723a62ea20f74e0cb5d16f2f51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that while gross margins have rebounded some, the real growth has come from declining SG&amp;A costs. Remember that it is the combination of these two factors that drives profitability, and right now, Alphabet has both going in the right direction. We don’t have to necessarily see massive growth in gross margins so long as revenue continues to rise, because SG&amp;A costs should continue to decline. This means higher revenue begets higher profits in a virtuous cycle, which is exactly what Alphabet has been able to do.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，虽然毛利率有所反弹，但真正的增长来自于 SG&amp;A 成本的下降。请记住，正是这两个因素的结合推动了盈利能力，目前，Alphabet正朝着正确的方向发展。只要收入持续增长，我们不一定会看到毛利率大幅增长，因为 SG&amp;A 成本应该会继续下降。这意味着更高的收入会在良性循环中带来更高的利润，这正是Alphabet能够做到的。</blockquote></p><p> If I’m right that ad spending will continue to grow due to a strengthening global economy, we should see more and more operating leverage for Alphabet as the quarters come and go. And the great news is that operating leverage for Alphabet has essentially limitless potential. It already has the infrastructure needed to grow, so incremental revenue carries with it little to no incremental cost. That’s the beauty of the business model, and why the stock continues to rise.</p><p><blockquote>如果我的判断是正确的，由于全球经济走强，广告支出将继续增长，那么随着季度的来来去去，我们应该会看到Alphabet的运营杠杆越来越大。好消息是，Alphabet的运营杠杆基本上具有无限的潜力。它已经拥有增长所需的基础设施，因此增量收入几乎没有增量成本。这就是商业模式的魅力所在，也是该股持续上涨的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s value Alphabet stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们评估Alphabet股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, before we get to the actual valuation, let’s take a look at EPS revisions, which are plotted below.</p><p><blockquote>现在，在讨论实际估值之前，让我们先来看看每股收益的修订情况，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a67e6104c6d1ff35dba38d9c29f11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the overwhelming bullishness in these estimates, particularly in the past few months. Revisions have been coming in often and in big chunks higher, and for all years. What that means is that these gains are sustainable, not one-time boosts from the pandemic. In other words, Alphabet’s growth trajectory has been permanently improved, not temporarily. This is exactly the kind of behavior I want to see from a stock’s estimates because it supports higher valuations and higher share prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从这些估计中看到压倒性的乐观情绪，尤其是在过去几个月。多年来，修订一直频繁出现，而且数量更大。这意味着这些收益是可持续的，而不是疫情的一次性推动。换句话说，Alphabet的增长轨迹得到了永久性的改善，而不是暂时的。这正是我希望从股票估值中看到的行为，因为它支持更高的估值和更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of the valuation, that’s where it gets juicy for Alphabet. Below, we have the price to forward earnings for the past five years for some historical context.</p><p><blockquote>说到估值，这就是Alphabet的魅力所在。下面，我们给出了一些历史背景下过去五年的远期收益价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f1e36c6e62741bfe00fffac533d904\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares go today for 29X forward earnings, which is slightly above its historical average, but well below the peak set last year of 35X forward earnings. Keep in mind we’ve just seen that Alphabet’s profit margins are much better than they were a year ago – and continue to rise – while revenue is soaring. In other words, I think it’s pretty easy to make the argument that Alphabet is a much better company for investors today than it was when it was priced at 35X forward earnings, but goes for 29X. That makes the stock pretty cheap in my mind and just fuels the bullish argument for yet more highs.</p><p><blockquote>今天，该股的远期市盈率为 29 倍，略高于历史平均水平，但远低于去年创下的 35 倍远期市盈率的峰值。请记住，我们刚刚看到Alphabet的利润率比一年前好得多，而且还在继续上升，而收入却在飙升。换句话说，我认为很容易就能说，Alphabet现在对投资者来说是一家比预期市盈率为 35 倍时好得多的公司，但现在是 29 倍。这使得该股在我看来相当便宜，并加剧了对更高高点的看涨论点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that this is one of the best companies in the world and will almost certainly remain that way for the foreseeable future. The chart looks like it is going higher, and the fundamental situation continues to improve as well. I don’t see anything that’s not to like here, and for that reason, you have to consider owning Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，这是世界上最好的公司之一，而且在可预见的未来几乎肯定会保持这种状态。图表看起来正在走高，基本面也在继续改善。我看不出这里有什么不喜欢的地方，因此，你必须考虑拥有Alphabet。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time<blockquote>Alphabet股票：这次不要错过</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time<blockquote>Alphabet股票：这次不要错过</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-20 09:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GOOG is pulling back.</li>  <li>I see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.</li>  <li>The fundamental picture continues to improve and all signs point to more highs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d4441cfb915dc5aa9a0e9e8ce1f215\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>谷歌正在撤退。</li><li>我认为这是一个刷新的停顿，而不是上升趋势的结束。</li><li>基本面继续改善，所有迹象都指向更高的高点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in June, I said search legend&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)&nbsp;was a&nbsp;buy&nbsp;before it broke out to new highs. At the time, the stock was trading for $2,451, and it has since risen about 15% to new highs. I take credit for my bad calls and losses, so permit me to spike the ball in the endzone here for a good one.</p><p><blockquote>早在六月，我就说过搜索传奇<b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）在突破新高之前被买入。当时，该股交易价格为 2,451 美元，此后已上涨约 15%，创下新高。我把我糟糕的评级和失败归功于我，所以请允许我在这里的端区扣球。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks that have soared like Alphabet tend to take breathers from time to time, and right now, I think that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Selling was rampant across the whole market last week, but it appears to me Alphabet is setting up for another pause that refreshes before continuing its run higher.</p><p><blockquote>像Alphabet这样飙升的股票往往会时不时地喘口气，而现在，我认为这正是我们所看到的。上周整个市场的抛售猖獗，但在我看来，Alphabet正在准备再次暂停，然后再继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eebf692d507eedac08fd13298641399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, the price chart looks like it is almost made up; that’s how excellent Alphabet has been at moving from lower-left to upper-right. Any chart that looks like this has to catch your attention, and it has certainly caught mine.</p><p><blockquote>首先，价格图表看起来几乎是虚构的；这就是Alphabet从左下角到右上角的出色表现。任何看起来像这样的图表都必须引起你的注意，它肯定引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p> We can see the moving averages have been moving higher, completely uninterrupted by whatever the news of the day has been over the past year, and simply chugging ever higher. The current move down, while small, represents what I think is another chance to pick up Alphabet at a small discount before it makes yet more highs, which I am quite sure it will.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到移动平均线一直在走高，完全没有受到过去一年当天新闻的干扰，而且一直在走高。目前的下跌虽然幅度很小，但我认为这是在Alphabet创下更多高点之前以小幅折扣买入的另一个机会，我很确定它会创下更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> I said back in June that any test of the 50-day moving average would be a massive buying chance, and I still wholeheartedly believe that. We haven’t seen one since May, but it looks like we may get one this week with the stock having sliced through its 20-day exponential moving average. I’ll repeat what I said three months ago: if we get a test of the 50-day moving average, back up the truck.</p><p><blockquote>我早在六月份就说过，任何对 50 天移动平均线的测试都将是一个巨大的买入机会，我仍然全心全意地相信这一点。自 5 月份以来，我们还没有看到过这样的情况，但看起来本周我们可能会看到这样的情况，因为该股已经突破了 20 天指数移动平均线。我再说一遍我三个月前说过的话： 如果我们测试了 50 天移动平均线，那就倒车。</blockquote></p><p> The accumulation/distribution line remains bullish, but the high volume selling we saw last week has caused it to decline a bit. I’m not bothered with that because the trend is still higher, but it is something to watch.</p><p><blockquote>积累/分销线仍然看涨，但我们上周看到的大量抛售导致其略有下降。我对此并不介意，因为趋势仍然较高，但这值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> Momentum is telling a similar story where we’ve seen a pullback with the share price, but the PPO is still well into positive territory and the 14-day RSI remains at the centerline. Unless something drastically changes, I see Alphabet’s selling as a pause that refreshes, and not the end of the uptrend.</p><p><blockquote>Momentum 也讲述了一个类似的故事，我们看到股价有所回调，但 PPO 仍处于正值区域，14 天 RSI 仍处于中线。除非情况发生巨大变化，否则我认为Alphabet的抛售是一个令人耳目一新的停顿，而不是上升趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, I’ve annotated instances of high volume selling that have occurred this year on the chart, and each one of them has been a great chance to pick up Alphabet for a discount. Like all the rest of the evidence I’ve presented, that doesn’t make a guarantee, but it sure looks like another chance to pick up the stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我在图表上标注了今年出现的大量销售情况，每一次销售都是以折扣价购买Alphabet的好机会。就像我提供的所有其他证据一样，这并不能保证，但这看起来确实是又一次买入股票的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alphabet is still winning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet仍在获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> I laid out some of the fundamental cases in the&nbsp;linked article&nbsp;and nothing has changed on that front, so I won’t reiterate points I’ve already made. But let’s take a look at another piece of the puzzle that points to higher prices ahead, and that is with respect to margins.</p><p><blockquote>我在链接的文章中列举了一些基本案例，这方面没有任何变化，所以我不会重复我已经提出的观点。但让我们来看看另一个谜题，它指向未来价格上涨，那就是利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet continues to see rising amounts of search and ad activity from both businesses and consumers as the world’s economy continues to heal from the pandemic. The company even continues to see gains from forex translation, although a recently strengthened US dollar may put a lid on that for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>随着世界经济继续从大流行病中复苏，Alphabet企业和消费者的搜索和广告活动数量持续上升。该公司甚至继续从外汇换算中获得收益，尽管最近美元走强可能会暂时阻碍这一增长。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet continues to see rising ad spending, which is what you’d expect to see in a strengthening economy, and the only real risk to that would be another lockdown phase from the virus. I personally don’t think we’re in the position to need to lockdown again, given the world is infinitely better prepared for a COVID outbreak today than it was 18 months ago. Lockdown was the only option when the virus spread initially, but with vaccines nearly everywhere, masks, social distancing, etc., there simply isn’t a need for that any longer. That means the economic recovery should continue, all else equal, and that means ad spending should continue to be robust for Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的广告支出持续上升，这在经济走强的情况下是可以预期的，而唯一真正的风险将是病毒的另一个封锁阶段。我个人认为我们不需要再次封锁，因为与 18 个月前相比，当今世界对 COVID 爆发的准备要充分得多。病毒最初传播时，封锁是唯一的选择，但随着疫苗、口罩、社会距离等几乎无处不在，根本没有必要再这样做了。这意味着在其他条件相同的情况下，经济复苏应该会继续，这意味着Alphabet的广告支出应该会继续强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also doing things like using free cash flow to buy back stock, which is the sign of a maturing tech company. It also is a sign that the company’s profitability has reached such massive heights that the Board literally cannot find a use for it, and is therefore buying back its own stock. Other titans like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)are in a similar boat, and it’s a<i>very</i>nice boat to be in.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet还在做一些事情，比如利用自由现金流回购股票，这是一家成熟的科技公司的标志。这也表明，公司的盈利能力已经达到了如此巨大的高度，以至于董事会实在找不到用处，因此正在回购自己的股票。苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）等其他巨头也处于类似的境地，而且<i>非常</i>不错的船。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company’s YouTube business continues to be a consistent winner, but to be honest, there are no segments within Alphabet that<i>aren’t</i>winners. Search is going to continue to be the elephant in the room for the years to come, but the fact that Alphabet can grow so consistently in so many ways is astounding, and why its share price keeps rising.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的 YouTube 业务一直是赢家，但说实话，Alphabet内部没有任何细分市场<i>不是</i>赢家。未来几年，搜索仍将是房间里的大象，但Alphabet能够在如此多的方面如此持续地增长，这一事实令人震惊，这也是其股价不断上涨的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s take a look at margins given we’ve gotten a backdrop on why revenue is growing, and should continue to grow. Below, I’ve plotted trailing-twelve-months operating margins to get us going.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看利润率，因为我们已经了解了为什么收入会增长，而且应该会继续增长。下面，我绘制了过去 12 个月的营业利润率，以帮助我们了解情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37002f4add35ef73fb8d1a36c7b661f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the growth in operating margins coming out of the pandemic has been<i>enormous</i>. Operating margins bottomed in the area of 20% of revenue, but have risen by nearly half in the quarters since. Keep in mind we’re looking at a four-quarter average above; the growth Alphabet is seeing in margins is absolutely outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，疫情带来的营业利润率增长<i>巨大的</i>营业利润率在收入的20%左右触底，但在此后的几个季度里上升了近一半。请记住，我们上面看到的是四个季度的平均值；Alphabet的利润率增长绝对出色。</blockquote></p><p> How is this happening? In short, it is happening with operating leverage. That is the impact of rising revenue, along with stagnant or declining expenses. In practice, it means that each incremental dollar of revenue means a higher amount of profit per dollar of revenue, which is what you see above because the incremental revenue carries with it lower relative expenses. If we look at the company’s gross margins and SG&amp;A costs below, we can see this at work.</p><p><blockquote>这是怎么发生的？简而言之，它发生在经营杠杆上。这是收入增长以及支出停滞或下降的影响。实际上，这意味着每一美元的收入增量意味着每美元收入的利润更高，这就是你在上面看到的，因为增量收入带来了较低的相对费用。如果我们看看下面该公司的毛利率和 SG&amp;A 成本，就会发现这一点正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235c19723a62ea20f74e0cb5d16f2f51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that while gross margins have rebounded some, the real growth has come from declining SG&amp;A costs. Remember that it is the combination of these two factors that drives profitability, and right now, Alphabet has both going in the right direction. We don’t have to necessarily see massive growth in gross margins so long as revenue continues to rise, because SG&amp;A costs should continue to decline. This means higher revenue begets higher profits in a virtuous cycle, which is exactly what Alphabet has been able to do.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，虽然毛利率有所反弹，但真正的增长来自于 SG&amp;A 成本的下降。请记住，正是这两个因素的结合推动了盈利能力，目前，Alphabet正朝着正确的方向发展。只要收入持续增长，我们不一定会看到毛利率大幅增长，因为 SG&amp;A 成本应该会继续下降。这意味着更高的收入会在良性循环中带来更高的利润，这正是Alphabet能够做到的。</blockquote></p><p> If I’m right that ad spending will continue to grow due to a strengthening global economy, we should see more and more operating leverage for Alphabet as the quarters come and go. And the great news is that operating leverage for Alphabet has essentially limitless potential. It already has the infrastructure needed to grow, so incremental revenue carries with it little to no incremental cost. That’s the beauty of the business model, and why the stock continues to rise.</p><p><blockquote>如果我的判断是正确的，由于全球经济走强，广告支出将继续增长，那么随着季度的来来去去，我们应该会看到Alphabet的运营杠杆越来越大。好消息是，Alphabet的运营杠杆基本上具有无限的潜力。它已经拥有增长所需的基础设施，因此增量收入几乎没有增量成本。这就是商业模式的魅力所在，也是该股持续上涨的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s value Alphabet stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们评估Alphabet股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, before we get to the actual valuation, let’s take a look at EPS revisions, which are plotted below.</p><p><blockquote>现在，在讨论实际估值之前，让我们先来看看每股收益的修订情况，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a67e6104c6d1ff35dba38d9c29f11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the overwhelming bullishness in these estimates, particularly in the past few months. Revisions have been coming in often and in big chunks higher, and for all years. What that means is that these gains are sustainable, not one-time boosts from the pandemic. In other words, Alphabet’s growth trajectory has been permanently improved, not temporarily. This is exactly the kind of behavior I want to see from a stock’s estimates because it supports higher valuations and higher share prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从这些估计中看到压倒性的乐观情绪，尤其是在过去几个月。多年来，修订一直频繁出现，而且数量更大。这意味着这些收益是可持续的，而不是疫情的一次性推动。换句话说，Alphabet的增长轨迹得到了永久性的改善，而不是暂时的。这正是我希望从股票估值中看到的行为，因为它支持更高的估值和更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of the valuation, that’s where it gets juicy for Alphabet. Below, we have the price to forward earnings for the past five years for some historical context.</p><p><blockquote>说到估值，这就是Alphabet的魅力所在。下面，我们给出了一些历史背景下过去五年的远期收益价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f1e36c6e62741bfe00fffac533d904\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares go today for 29X forward earnings, which is slightly above its historical average, but well below the peak set last year of 35X forward earnings. Keep in mind we’ve just seen that Alphabet’s profit margins are much better than they were a year ago – and continue to rise – while revenue is soaring. In other words, I think it’s pretty easy to make the argument that Alphabet is a much better company for investors today than it was when it was priced at 35X forward earnings, but goes for 29X. That makes the stock pretty cheap in my mind and just fuels the bullish argument for yet more highs.</p><p><blockquote>今天，该股的远期市盈率为 29 倍，略高于历史平均水平，但远低于去年创下的 35 倍远期市盈率的峰值。请记住，我们刚刚看到Alphabet的利润率比一年前好得多，而且还在继续上升，而收入却在飙升。换句话说，我认为很容易就能说，Alphabet现在对投资者来说是一家比预期市盈率为 35 倍时好得多的公司，但现在是 29 倍。这使得该股在我看来相当便宜，并加剧了对更高高点的看涨论点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that this is one of the best companies in the world and will almost certainly remain that way for the foreseeable future. The chart looks like it is going higher, and the fundamental situation continues to improve as well. I don’t see anything that’s not to like here, and for that reason, you have to consider owning Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，这是世界上最好的公司之一，而且在可预见的未来几乎肯定会保持这种状态。图表看起来正在走高，基本面也在继续改善。我看不出这里有什么不喜欢的地方，因此，你必须考虑拥有Alphabet。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456044-alphabet-dont-miss-out-this-time\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456044-alphabet-dont-miss-out-this-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109134681","content_text":"Summary\n\nGOOG is pulling back.\nI see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.\nThe fundamental picture continues to improve and all signs point to more highs.\n\nSpencer Platt/Getty Images News\nBack in June, I said search legend Alphabet(GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) was a buy before it broke out to new highs. At the time, the stock was trading for $2,451, and it has since risen about 15% to new highs. I take credit for my bad calls and losses, so permit me to spike the ball in the endzone here for a good one.\nStocks that have soared like Alphabet tend to take breathers from time to time, and right now, I think that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Selling was rampant across the whole market last week, but it appears to me Alphabet is setting up for another pause that refreshes before continuing its run higher.\nSource: StockCharts\nFirst, the price chart looks like it is almost made up; that’s how excellent Alphabet has been at moving from lower-left to upper-right. Any chart that looks like this has to catch your attention, and it has certainly caught mine.\nWe can see the moving averages have been moving higher, completely uninterrupted by whatever the news of the day has been over the past year, and simply chugging ever higher. The current move down, while small, represents what I think is another chance to pick up Alphabet at a small discount before it makes yet more highs, which I am quite sure it will.\nI said back in June that any test of the 50-day moving average would be a massive buying chance, and I still wholeheartedly believe that. We haven’t seen one since May, but it looks like we may get one this week with the stock having sliced through its 20-day exponential moving average. I’ll repeat what I said three months ago: if we get a test of the 50-day moving average, back up the truck.\nThe accumulation/distribution line remains bullish, but the high volume selling we saw last week has caused it to decline a bit. I’m not bothered with that because the trend is still higher, but it is something to watch.\nMomentum is telling a similar story where we’ve seen a pullback with the share price, but the PPO is still well into positive territory and the 14-day RSI remains at the centerline. Unless something drastically changes, I see Alphabet’s selling as a pause that refreshes, and not the end of the uptrend.\nFinally, I’ve annotated instances of high volume selling that have occurred this year on the chart, and each one of them has been a great chance to pick up Alphabet for a discount. Like all the rest of the evidence I’ve presented, that doesn’t make a guarantee, but it sure looks like another chance to pick up the stock.\nAlphabet is still winning\nI laid out some of the fundamental cases in the linked article and nothing has changed on that front, so I won’t reiterate points I’ve already made. But let’s take a look at another piece of the puzzle that points to higher prices ahead, and that is with respect to margins.\nAlphabet continues to see rising amounts of search and ad activity from both businesses and consumers as the world’s economy continues to heal from the pandemic. The company even continues to see gains from forex translation, although a recently strengthened US dollar may put a lid on that for the time being.\nAlphabet continues to see rising ad spending, which is what you’d expect to see in a strengthening economy, and the only real risk to that would be another lockdown phase from the virus. I personally don’t think we’re in the position to need to lockdown again, given the world is infinitely better prepared for a COVID outbreak today than it was 18 months ago. Lockdown was the only option when the virus spread initially, but with vaccines nearly everywhere, masks, social distancing, etc., there simply isn’t a need for that any longer. That means the economic recovery should continue, all else equal, and that means ad spending should continue to be robust for Alphabet.\nAlphabet is also doing things like using free cash flow to buy back stock, which is the sign of a maturing tech company. It also is a sign that the company’s profitability has reached such massive heights that the Board literally cannot find a use for it, and is therefore buying back its own stock. Other titans like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)are in a similar boat, and it’s averynice boat to be in.\nThe company’s YouTube business continues to be a consistent winner, but to be honest, there are no segments within Alphabet thataren’twinners. Search is going to continue to be the elephant in the room for the years to come, but the fact that Alphabet can grow so consistently in so many ways is astounding, and why its share price keeps rising.\nNow, let’s take a look at margins given we’ve gotten a backdrop on why revenue is growing, and should continue to grow. Below, I’ve plotted trailing-twelve-months operating margins to get us going.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see the growth in operating margins coming out of the pandemic has beenenormous. Operating margins bottomed in the area of 20% of revenue, but have risen by nearly half in the quarters since. Keep in mind we’re looking at a four-quarter average above; the growth Alphabet is seeing in margins is absolutely outstanding.\nHow is this happening? In short, it is happening with operating leverage. That is the impact of rising revenue, along with stagnant or declining expenses. In practice, it means that each incremental dollar of revenue means a higher amount of profit per dollar of revenue, which is what you see above because the incremental revenue carries with it lower relative expenses. If we look at the company’s gross margins and SG&A costs below, we can see this at work.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see that while gross margins have rebounded some, the real growth has come from declining SG&A costs. Remember that it is the combination of these two factors that drives profitability, and right now, Alphabet has both going in the right direction. We don’t have to necessarily see massive growth in gross margins so long as revenue continues to rise, because SG&A costs should continue to decline. This means higher revenue begets higher profits in a virtuous cycle, which is exactly what Alphabet has been able to do.\nIf I’m right that ad spending will continue to grow due to a strengthening global economy, we should see more and more operating leverage for Alphabet as the quarters come and go. And the great news is that operating leverage for Alphabet has essentially limitless potential. It already has the infrastructure needed to grow, so incremental revenue carries with it little to no incremental cost. That’s the beauty of the business model, and why the stock continues to rise.\nLet’s value Alphabet stock\nNow, before we get to the actual valuation, let’s take a look at EPS revisions, which are plotted below.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see the overwhelming bullishness in these estimates, particularly in the past few months. Revisions have been coming in often and in big chunks higher, and for all years. What that means is that these gains are sustainable, not one-time boosts from the pandemic. In other words, Alphabet’s growth trajectory has been permanently improved, not temporarily. This is exactly the kind of behavior I want to see from a stock’s estimates because it supports higher valuations and higher share prices.\nSpeaking of the valuation, that’s where it gets juicy for Alphabet. Below, we have the price to forward earnings for the past five years for some historical context.\nSource: TIKR.com\nShares go today for 29X forward earnings, which is slightly above its historical average, but well below the peak set last year of 35X forward earnings. Keep in mind we’ve just seen that Alphabet’s profit margins are much better than they were a year ago – and continue to rise – while revenue is soaring. In other words, I think it’s pretty easy to make the argument that Alphabet is a much better company for investors today than it was when it was priced at 35X forward earnings, but goes for 29X. That makes the stock pretty cheap in my mind and just fuels the bullish argument for yet more highs.\nThe bottom line is that this is one of the best companies in the world and will almost certainly remain that way for the foreseeable future. The chart looks like it is going higher, and the fundamental situation continues to improve as well. I don’t see anything that’s not to like here, and for that reason, you have to consider owning Alphabet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882898545,"gmtCreate":1631671620487,"gmtModify":1632806890648,"author":{"id":"3576499401276243","authorId":"3576499401276243","name":"Yapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a63c165f0e144bfe64b0c1c40860cfe4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576499401276243","authorIdStr":"3576499401276243"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":":(","listText":":(","text":":(","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882898545","repostId":"2167360563","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881593715,"gmtCreate":1631356755337,"gmtModify":1631883825546,"author":{"id":"3576499401276243","authorId":"3576499401276243","name":"Yapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a63c165f0e144bfe64b0c1c40860cfe4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576499401276243","authorIdStr":"3576499401276243"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Get ready to fly&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Get ready to fly&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Get ready to fly","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abe8efc4b63913ebae4cfd3fa7b8e5de","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881593715","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880293822,"gmtCreate":1631058710366,"gmtModify":1632884954478,"author":{"id":"3576499401276243","authorId":"3576499401276243","name":"Yapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a63c165f0e144bfe64b0c1c40860cfe4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576499401276243","authorIdStr":"3576499401276243"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Road to $800 soon 💎","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Road to $800 soon 💎","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Road to $800 soon 💎","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9f2b406361f2d8871b2e4554a1a041","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880293822","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817020733,"gmtCreate":1630891993322,"gmtModify":1631884305126,"author":{"id":"3576499401276243","authorId":"3576499401276243","name":"Yapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a63c165f0e144bfe64b0c1c40860cfe4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576499401276243","authorIdStr":"3576499401276243"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Help like thanks","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Help like thanks","text":"$AMD(AMD)$Help like thanks","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/509286a4ef2bba1462e4d0c1d0579620","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817020733","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814764808,"gmtCreate":1630886410504,"gmtModify":1632905388669,"author":{"id":"3576499401276243","authorId":"3576499401276243","name":"Yapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a63c165f0e144bfe64b0c1c40860cfe4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576499401276243","authorIdStr":"3576499401276243"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Like like like 👍&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Like like like 👍&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Like like like 👍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b896799fc57146aadc11d4ffaf8ad4ac","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814764808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}