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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
12-01
喜新厌旧
软银CEO孙正义：我不想出售一股英伟达的股份，但我需要资金投资于OpenAI及我们的机会
软银CEO孙正义表示，他并不想出售一股英伟达的股份，但他需要资金来投资于OpenAI和其他机会。
软银CEO孙正义：我不想出售一股英伟达的股份，但我需要资金投资于OpenAI及我们的机会
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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
11-26
打脸
申万宏源维持谷歌-A买入评级 目标价386美元
申万宏源维持谷歌-A（GOOGL.US）买入评级，目标价386美元，受益于Gemini 3 Pro与Nano Banana Pro技术领先，AI搜索、API及Veo视频驱动Tokens消耗高增，TPU
申万宏源维持谷歌-A买入评级 目标价386美元
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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
11-25
空头为了做空赚钱，自以为像对待那些小型公司那样喊喊嘴巴就能成功，而且对企业经营细节陌生得令人惊讶，简直是想赚钱疯狂的意淫
反击大空头！英伟达致信华尔街分析师，反驳会计丑闻等指控
英伟达 针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录，反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达直接回击“大空头”英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控，称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。
反击大空头！英伟达致信华尔街分析师，反驳会计丑闻等指控
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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
11-25
Google说还没有下单，急什么急，没出息
一文读懂“谷歌链”：AI全栈式创新，TPU+OCS共塑下一代智算网络
中泰证券认为，本轮“谷歌链”爆发的关键技术变量在于OCS光交换技术的全面引入。本质上是用物理光路直接传输数据，彻底抛弃了“光—电—光”的信号转换过程。通过深度整合自研TPU芯片与OCS（光电路交换机）技术，谷歌不仅突破了传统数据中心的能效与扩展瓶颈，更为下一代智算网络确立了新的架构标准。谷歌已围绕芯片（TPU)—网络(OCS)—模型(Gemini)—应用(云计算/搜索/广告等)全栈优势构筑AI护城河。
一文读懂“谷歌链”：AI全栈式创新，TPU+OCS共塑下一代智算网络
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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
11-25
竞争中也有合作
美银：OpenAI造成两难局面，给科技巨头带来冲击
可能会为美国科技巨头带来麻烦。
美银：OpenAI造成两难局面，给科技巨头带来冲击
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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
11-25
做空的来争夺话语权了
阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱
但这背后，实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争，甚至对于强大的阿里，只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。阿里的压力也很大，多个领域同时开战。▌1、全面竞争的陷阱大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张，雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。电商和AI，阿里都面临着强敌的竞争，阿里既要守住电商的大本营，又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。
阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱
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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
11-25
认同产业分析师
知名分析师郭明錤驳斥英伟达做空论：DSO与库存上升属业务正常扩张
并非财务异常。
知名分析师郭明錤驳斥英伟达做空论：DSO与库存上升属业务正常扩张
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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
11-21
人家赖得搭理你还卖翘，浪费生命时间，马斯克连巴菲特都看不起，认为一生不为社会创造价值。
段永平：我不想跟马斯克做朋友，但投资特斯拉还是可以的
在近日的访谈中，段永平公开表示“投资特斯拉实际上是在跟马斯克做朋友，我不想跟他做朋友”。然而，话音未落，他又公开称自己买了特斯拉的股票。对此，段永平表示：“不做朋友但还是可以投资的。”面对部分网友的询问，段永平也进行了回应：“不是玩笑，是认真的。”另有网友询问段永平是直接购买股票，还是卖Put。但是特斯拉的电动车做出了差异化。不仅段永平对特斯拉的态度变了。
段永平：我不想跟马斯克做朋友，但投资特斯拉还是可以的
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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
11-21
没有独立分析能力，嚼他人残渣蔬菜，不配引领投资
泉果基金刚登峰：需密切关注AI应用的发展和机会
泉果基金董事总经理刚登峰在友仑集团联合复旦大学国际金融学院等机构主办的“2025国际金融科技论坛”上深入剖析了AI产业链的投资机会与挑战，特别强调了AI应用层的重要性。刚登峰指出，真正杀手级的AI应用层面是目前大家争议最大的部分，因为这个才是整个产业链最后能够打通的关键环节。那个时候，如果没有更多新收入，会受到比较大的挑战，还是需要对AI应用保持密切关注。
泉果基金刚登峰：需密切关注AI应用的发展和机会
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荷马先生
荷马先生
·
11-21
作者明显不懂企业财务，不懂企业账务处理规则流程，更不懂金融运作模式，典型老登思维偏见先入为主
英伟达财报后走势“诡异”，6100亿美元“AI庞氏骗局”崩盘？
英伟达未结账款达334亿美元，一年内激增89%。
英伟达财报后走势“诡异”，6100亿美元“AI庞氏骗局”崩盘？
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19:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"申万宏源维持谷歌-A买入评级 目标价386美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586597322","media":"格隆汇","summary":"申万宏源维持谷歌-A（GOOGL.US）买入评级，目标价386美元，受益于Gemini 3 Pro与Nano Banana Pro技术领先，AI搜索、API及Veo视频驱动Tokens消耗高增，TPU","content":"<html><body><p>申万宏源维持谷歌-A（GOOGL.US）买入评级，目标价386美元，受益于Gemini 3 Pro与Nano Banana Pro技术领先，AI搜索、API及Veo视频驱动Tokens消耗高增，TPU v7获Anthropic百万卡订单，云业务增速上修。上调25-27年净利润至1291/1370/1607亿美元，AI进展兑现支撑34x PE估值，目标价对应21%上涨空间。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>申万宏源维持谷歌-A买入评级 目标价386美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n申万宏源维持谷歌-A买入评级 目标价386美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-26 19:51 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>申万宏源维持谷歌-A（GOOGL.US）买入评级，目标价386美元，受益于Gemini 3 Pro与Nano Banana Pro技术领先，AI搜索、API及Veo视频驱动Tokens消耗高增，TPU v7获Anthropic百万卡订单，云业务增速上修。上调25-27年净利润至1291/1370/1607亿美元，AI进展兑现支撑34x PE估值，目标价对应21%上涨空间。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK0188":"融资融券","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0345774631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) 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VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","GOOG":"谷歌","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","000166":"申万宏源","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2586597322","content_text":"申万宏源维持谷歌-A（GOOGL.US）买入评级，目标价386美元，受益于Gemini 3 Pro与Nano Banana Pro技术领先，AI搜索、API及Veo视频驱动Tokens消耗高增，TPU v7获Anthropic百万卡订单，云业务增速上修。上调25-27年净利润至1291/1370/1607亿美元，AI进展兑现支撑34x PE估值，目标价对应21%上涨空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000166":1.5,"USJW.SI":0.6,"GOOG":1.5,"GOOGL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504031748358560,"gmtCreate":1764065008950,"gmtModify":1764065011625,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"空头为了做空赚钱，自以为像对待那些小型公司那样喊喊嘴巴就能成功，而且对企业经营细节陌生得令人惊讶，简直是想赚钱疯狂的意淫","listText":"空头为了做空赚钱，自以为像对待那些小型公司那样喊喊嘴巴就能成功，而且对企业经营细节陌生得令人惊讶，简直是想赚钱疯狂的意淫","text":"空头为了做空赚钱，自以为像对待那些小型公司那样喊喊嘴巴就能成功，而且对企业经营细节陌生得令人惊讶，简直是想赚钱疯狂的意淫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504031748358560","repostId":"2586448652","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2586448652","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1764042773,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586448652?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 11:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"反击大空头！英伟达致信华尔街分析师，反驳会计丑闻等指控","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586448652","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英伟达 针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录，反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达直接回击“大空头”英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控，称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录，反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达强调其收入质量良好，并对利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控进行了澄清。</p></blockquote><p>上周，在英伟达公布第三财季财报后，华尔街知名的“大空头”、因高调做空AI热门股引发关注的Michael Burry就在社交平台上指责各大科技巨头对自己的营收作出了不实陈述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对他的指控，英伟达已向华尔街分析师们发布了一份详尽的备忘录，对与“大空头”Michael Burry有关的欺诈指控以及题为“能发现6100亿美元欺诈行为的算法”的文章予以反驳。</p><h2 id=\"id_931209130\" style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达直接回击“大空头”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控，称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该备忘录拒绝将此事与过去的会计丑闻相提并论，强调英伟达不使用特殊目的实体（SPV），不依赖供应商融资，并且只有一项披露的担保，其公允价值微不足道。</p><p>在财务细节上，英伟达表示付款条款依然严格，销售未达账项天数（DSO）保持在53天，与过去几年一致。对于Burry重点攻击的折旧与利润率问题，备忘录回应称，今年较高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，且已进行了适当的会计处理。此外，公司明确表示不知道有任何SEC调查，并指出加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对市场上广泛流传的“6100亿美元循环融资”指控，英伟达在备忘录中澄清，其战略投资在第三季度仅为37亿美元，年初至今约为47亿美元，这仅占其营收的一小部分，所谓巨额循环融资毫无根据。公司还强调，其投资组合公司主要筹集的是第三方资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该公司还强调，投资组合中的公司主要通过第三方筹集资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>反驳财务指控</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因《大空头》一书而闻名的Burry此前曾警告称，华尔街大型科技公司可能低估了与人工智能基础设施相关的折旧费用。在最近的一篇推文中，他指出，这些科技巨头以一种“人为地提高收益”的方式延长了资产的预计使用寿命——这是现代较为常见的欺诈行为之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示：“通过购买英伟达芯片/服务器来大幅增加资本支出，这种做法在2-3年的产品周期内进行，不应导致计算设备使用寿命的延长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Burry估计，从2026年到2028年，整个行业在折旧方面的数据可能会低估约1760亿美元，并指出像甲骨文和Meta这样的公司，其利润在接下来的十年可能会高估超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还透露，截至9月30日，他持有大量针对几只与人工智能相关的股票的看跌期权头寸，包括与英伟达和 Palantir Technologies相关的押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，英伟达为其会计和运营做法进行了辩护。该公司指出，<strong>强劲的现金转换情况证明了其收入质量良好，并公布了第三季度的运营现金流量为238亿美元，自由现金流量为221亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自2018财年以来，长期自由现金流量一直约占公认会计准则净利润的98%。该公司表示，库存趋势反映了正常的产品生产节奏和前瞻性指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这份备忘录还反驳了有关利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控。</strong>英伟达向分析师表示，今年更高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，并且这一情况已得到恰当核算，而坏账费用微不足道，计入了一般及管理费用中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">它还表示，目前并未得知美国证券交易委员会有任何调查行动，而且加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。关于内幕交易的指控，该公司称这是对第三方基金行为的错误解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。<strong>Raymond James分析师Simon Leopold在研报中写道，关于“系统性欺诈”的叙事与英伟达的基本面不符。他认为英伟达在AI相关机会上的投资是适当的。</strong></p><p>除了具体的财务澄清，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在上周财报发布后，也针对宏观层面的“泡沫论”做出了直接回应：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论，”黄仁勋表示，“但从我们的角度来看，我们看到的是截然不同的景象（From our vantage point, we see something very different）。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739558f5b7f538e207daad422037ad1c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>反击大空头！英伟达致信华尔街分析师，反驳会计丑闻等指控</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n反击大空头！英伟达致信华尔街分析师，反驳会计丑闻等指控\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-25 11:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录，反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达强调其收入质量良好，并对利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控进行了澄清。</p></blockquote><p>上周，在英伟达公布第三财季财报后，华尔街知名的“大空头”、因高调做空AI热门股引发关注的Michael Burry就在社交平台上指责各大科技巨头对自己的营收作出了不实陈述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对他的指控，英伟达已向华尔街分析师们发布了一份详尽的备忘录，对与“大空头”Michael Burry有关的欺诈指控以及题为“能发现6100亿美元欺诈行为的算法”的文章予以反驳。</p><h2 id=\"id_931209130\" style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达直接回击“大空头”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控，称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该备忘录拒绝将此事与过去的会计丑闻相提并论，强调英伟达不使用特殊目的实体（SPV），不依赖供应商融资，并且只有一项披露的担保，其公允价值微不足道。</p><p>在财务细节上，英伟达表示付款条款依然严格，销售未达账项天数（DSO）保持在53天，与过去几年一致。对于Burry重点攻击的折旧与利润率问题，备忘录回应称，今年较高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，且已进行了适当的会计处理。此外，公司明确表示不知道有任何SEC调查，并指出加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对市场上广泛流传的“6100亿美元循环融资”指控，英伟达在备忘录中澄清，其战略投资在第三季度仅为37亿美元，年初至今约为47亿美元，这仅占其营收的一小部分，所谓巨额循环融资毫无根据。公司还强调，其投资组合公司主要筹集的是第三方资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该公司还强调，投资组合中的公司主要通过第三方筹集资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>反驳财务指控</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因《大空头》一书而闻名的Burry此前曾警告称，华尔街大型科技公司可能低估了与人工智能基础设施相关的折旧费用。在最近的一篇推文中，他指出，这些科技巨头以一种“人为地提高收益”的方式延长了资产的预计使用寿命——这是现代较为常见的欺诈行为之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示：“通过购买英伟达芯片/服务器来大幅增加资本支出，这种做法在2-3年的产品周期内进行，不应导致计算设备使用寿命的延长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Burry估计，从2026年到2028年，整个行业在折旧方面的数据可能会低估约1760亿美元，并指出像甲骨文和Meta这样的公司，其利润在接下来的十年可能会高估超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还透露，截至9月30日，他持有大量针对几只与人工智能相关的股票的看跌期权头寸，包括与英伟达和 Palantir Technologies相关的押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，英伟达为其会计和运营做法进行了辩护。该公司指出，<strong>强劲的现金转换情况证明了其收入质量良好，并公布了第三季度的运营现金流量为238亿美元，自由现金流量为221亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自2018财年以来，长期自由现金流量一直约占公认会计准则净利润的98%。该公司表示，库存趋势反映了正常的产品生产节奏和前瞻性指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这份备忘录还反驳了有关利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控。</strong>英伟达向分析师表示，今年更高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，并且这一情况已得到恰当核算，而坏账费用微不足道，计入了一般及管理费用中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">它还表示，目前并未得知美国证券交易委员会有任何调查行动，而且加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。关于内幕交易的指控，该公司称这是对第三方基金行为的错误解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。<strong>Raymond James分析师Simon Leopold在研报中写道，关于“系统性欺诈”的叙事与英伟达的基本面不符。他认为英伟达在AI相关机会上的投资是适当的。</strong></p><p>除了具体的财务澄清，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在上周财报发布后，也针对宏观层面的“泡沫论”做出了直接回应：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论，”黄仁勋表示，“但从我们的角度来看，我们看到的是截然不同的景象（From our vantage point, we see something very different）。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739558f5b7f538e207daad422037ad1c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6954d1dc2b34c5f605b752cf346a1934","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125104633977da988&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2586448652","content_text":"英伟达针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录，反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达强调其收入质量良好，并对利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控进行了澄清。上周，在英伟达公布第三财季财报后，华尔街知名的“大空头”、因高调做空AI热门股引发关注的Michael Burry就在社交平台上指责各大科技巨头对自己的营收作出了不实陈述。针对他的指控，英伟达已向华尔街分析师们发布了一份详尽的备忘录，对与“大空头”Michael Burry有关的欺诈指控以及题为“能发现6100亿美元欺诈行为的算法”的文章予以反驳。英伟达直接回击“大空头”英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控，称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。该备忘录拒绝将此事与过去的会计丑闻相提并论，强调英伟达不使用特殊目的实体（SPV），不依赖供应商融资，并且只有一项披露的担保，其公允价值微不足道。在财务细节上，英伟达表示付款条款依然严格，销售未达账项天数（DSO）保持在53天，与过去几年一致。对于Burry重点攻击的折旧与利润率问题，备忘录回应称，今年较高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，且已进行了适当的会计处理。此外，公司明确表示不知道有任何SEC调查，并指出加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。针对市场上广泛流传的“6100亿美元循环融资”指控，英伟达在备忘录中澄清，其战略投资在第三季度仅为37亿美元，年初至今约为47亿美元，这仅占其营收的一小部分，所谓巨额循环融资毫无根据。公司还强调，其投资组合公司主要筹集的是第三方资金。该公司还强调，投资组合中的公司主要通过第三方筹集资金。反驳财务指控因《大空头》一书而闻名的Burry此前曾警告称，华尔街大型科技公司可能低估了与人工智能基础设施相关的折旧费用。在最近的一篇推文中，他指出，这些科技巨头以一种“人为地提高收益”的方式延长了资产的预计使用寿命——这是现代较为常见的欺诈行为之一。他表示：“通过购买英伟达芯片/服务器来大幅增加资本支出，这种做法在2-3年的产品周期内进行，不应导致计算设备使用寿命的延长。”Burry估计，从2026年到2028年，整个行业在折旧方面的数据可能会低估约1760亿美元，并指出像甲骨文和Meta这样的公司，其利润在接下来的十年可能会高估超过20%。他还透露，截至9月30日，他持有大量针对几只与人工智能相关的股票的看跌期权头寸，包括与英伟达和 Palantir Technologies相关的押注。不过，英伟达为其会计和运营做法进行了辩护。该公司指出，强劲的现金转换情况证明了其收入质量良好，并公布了第三季度的运营现金流量为238亿美元，自由现金流量为221亿美元。自2018财年以来，长期自由现金流量一直约占公认会计准则净利润的98%。该公司表示，库存趋势反映了正常的产品生产节奏和前瞻性指引。这份备忘录还反驳了有关利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控。英伟达向分析师表示，今年更高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，并且这一情况已得到恰当核算，而坏账费用微不足道，计入了一般及管理费用中。它还表示，目前并未得知美国证券交易委员会有任何调查行动，而且加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。关于内幕交易的指控，该公司称这是对第三方基金行为的错误解读。这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。Raymond James分析师Simon Leopold在研报中写道，关于“系统性欺诈”的叙事与英伟达的基本面不符。他认为英伟达在AI相关机会上的投资是适当的。除了具体的财务澄清，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在上周财报发布后，也针对宏观层面的“泡沫论”做出了直接回应：“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论，”黄仁勋表示，“但从我们的角度来看，我们看到的是截然不同的景象（From our vantage point, we see something very different）。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504032959164752,"gmtCreate":1764064550001,"gmtModify":1764064552380,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Google说还没有下单，急什么急，没出息","listText":"Google说还没有下单，急什么急，没出息","text":"Google说还没有下单，急什么急，没出息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504032959164752","repostId":"2586879428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2586879428","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1764059977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586879428?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 16:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一文读懂“谷歌链”：AI全栈式创新，TPU+OCS共塑下一代智算网络","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586879428","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"中泰证券认为，本轮“谷歌链”爆发的关键技术变量在于OCS光交换技术的全面引入。本质上是用物理光路直接传输数据，彻底抛弃了“光—电—光”的信号转换过程。通过深度整合自研TPU芯片与OCS（光电路交换机）技术，谷歌不仅突破了传统数据中心的能效与扩展瓶颈，更为下一代智算网络确立了新的架构标准。谷歌已围绕芯片（TPU)—网络(OCS)—模型(Gemini)—应用(云计算/搜索/广告等)全栈优势构筑AI护城河。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在AI军备竞赛日益白热化的背景下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>正凭借其从芯片到网络的“全栈式”创新构筑独特的算力护城河。</p><p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">中泰证券</a>看来，这一轮“谷歌链”爆发的关键技术变量在于OCS光交换技术的全面引入。通过深度整合自研TPU芯片与OCS（光电路交换机）技术，谷歌不仅突破了传统数据中心的能效与扩展瓶颈，更为下一代智算网络确立了新的架构标准。</p><p>TPU与OCS的深度耦合，不仅支撑了Gemini等大模型的高效迭代，也直接带动了上游光模块（特别是1.6T）、MEMS芯片、光器件等产业链环节的增量需求。AI数据中心正从静态架构向动态光子互联演进。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22dd80a7200875634ac7e26a556be416\" tg-width=\"1318\" tg-height=\"263\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_645066037\">TPU v7“Ironwood”放量：ASIC市场的主导力量</h2><p>中泰证券认为，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>I已围绕芯片（TPU）—网络(OCS)—模型(Gemini)—应用(云计算/搜索/广告等)全栈优势构筑护城河。</p><p>从2011年谷歌成立谷歌大脑 （Google Brain）实验室开始涉足AI开始，一系列具有影响力的AI研究相继问世，包括2017年发布Transformer架构到2023年推出多模态大模型Gemini，目前已形成从芯片到集群架构到大模型再到应用端的布局，谷歌将AI逐步整合到多元业务流程中，这些业务为谷歌获取了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>，用于训练完善AI。</p><p>分析师强调，<strong>谷歌自研芯片的跨越式发展是其算力战略的核心。</strong></p><p>即将全面上市的TPU v7（Ironwood）在性能上实现了质的飞跃，单芯片计算能力较上一代TPU v5p提升超过十倍，峰值带宽达7.4 TB/s。</p><p>在集群架构上，Ironwood继续沿用且优化了3D Torus（三维环面）拓扑结构。该架构允许将多个“4×4×4”的立方体构建块动态组合，单集群规模可扩展至9216颗芯片。为<strong>了匹配这一极高的算力密度，TPU v7开始配置1.6T光模块，这也带动了市场对高速光模块需求的预期上修。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d66ead2b02cb9ca1f149b4ca41a9e71\" tg-width=\"1573\" tg-height=\"588\"/></p><p><strong>供应链调研指出，2026年谷歌TPU将成为全球自研ASIC市场的主力，预计出货量远高于AWS Trainium或Microsoft Maia等竞品。随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>GB200与谷歌TPU v7的双重拉动，2026年行业1.6T光模块需求有望上修至2000万只以上。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c77cb83d19af7d01f492810c883f623c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"350\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3408044160\">OCS：打破传统电交换瓶颈的关键技术</h2><p>中泰证券表示，<strong>谷歌在AI数据中心大规模引入OCS（光电路交换机）的核心逻辑在于解决大规模扩展（Scale-Out）带来的功耗与效率难题。</strong></p><p>传统数据中心架构正在失效。在传统Clos架构中，随着算力集群规模指数级扩张，基于电信号的分组交换机（EPS）面临着严重的功耗散热问题和昂贵的布线成本。<strong>据Cisco测算，数据中心交换系统的总功耗在过去十余年间提升了22倍。</strong></p><p><strong>谷歌引入OCS，本质上是用物理光路直接传输数据，彻底抛弃了“光—电—光”的信号转换过程。</strong></p><p>这其中，OCS是实现服务器解耦（Server Disaggregation）的关键，它允许计算资源跨机架动态编排，像搭积木一样组合算力，从而突破了静态机架的资源浪费瓶颈。在Ironwood集群中，48台OCS交换机连接了9216个TPU芯片，构建了一个低延迟、高带宽的动态光子网络。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b3e33d0d1457a0c2d0be835df9c4d8f\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"354\"/></p><p>数据证明了这一技术路线的优越性：<strong>引入OCS定制化网络后，谷歌网络的吞吐量提升了30%，功耗降低了40%，网络宕机时间减少了50倍，最关键的是，它让资本开支减少了30%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ded48346a0435ddce8a6f92992fa25e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3899894281\">解构谷歌OCS：独特的MEMS技术与定制光器件价值</h2><p>中泰证券表示，理解“谷歌链”的投资价值，必须理解OCS的物理构成。</p><p>目前谷歌主流的Palomar OCS基于MEMS（微机电系统）方案，拥有136个光路通道（实际使用128路）。其核心工作原理是通过2D MEMS微镜阵列反射光信号，实现毫秒级的光路切换，无需光收发器进行电信号转换。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/323818e7cb4e9ba64d2f47146605ddad\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><p>这套系统带来了一系列独特的硬件需求。</p><p>首先是定制光模块，谷歌在光模块中内置了环形器（Circulator），实现了单根光纤的双向传输，这使得所需的端口和光缆数量不仅比传统胖树架构减少了40%，还创造了环形器这一增量市场。</p><p>其次是核心光学元件，包括MEMS阵列、准直器、2D透镜阵列等，这些精密光学元器件的单机价值量极高。此外，虽然谷歌目前主推MEMS方案，但也正在探索液晶、压电陶瓷和硅光波导等新技术路径，为供应链上的技术创新者提供了潜在的入局机会。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c9e1253661a8d67a5a0f55ae29ab37c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p>OCS技术的崛起为光通信产业链带来了全新的增量环节。随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>等其他云服务商也开始探索OCS应用，Lightcounting预测2024-2029年OCS市场将以28%的复合增速增长，行业正迎来技术与需求的双重爆发期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37c5c90bcd64f66787a9b18a2bfa699e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一文读懂“谷歌链”：AI全栈式创新，TPU+OCS共塑下一代智算网络</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一文读懂“谷歌链”：AI全栈式创新，TPU+OCS共塑下一代智算网络\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-25 16:39 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760084><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在AI军备竞赛日益白热化的背景下，谷歌正凭借其从芯片到网络的“全栈式”创新构筑独特的算力护城河。在中泰证券看来，这一轮“谷歌链”爆发的关键技术变量在于OCS光交换技术的全面引入。通过深度整合自研TPU芯片与OCS（光电路交换机）技术，谷歌不仅突破了传统数据中心的能效与扩展瓶颈，更为下一代智算网络确立了新的架构标准。TPU与OCS的深度耦合，不仅支撑了Gemini等大模型的高效迭代，也直接带动了上游...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760084\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69bda624dad1064625bad9c30f3beafa","relate_stocks":{"IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU1221951046.USD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HM\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU1221951129.SGD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HM\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760084","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2586879428","content_text":"在AI军备竞赛日益白热化的背景下，谷歌正凭借其从芯片到网络的“全栈式”创新构筑独特的算力护城河。在中泰证券看来，这一轮“谷歌链”爆发的关键技术变量在于OCS光交换技术的全面引入。通过深度整合自研TPU芯片与OCS（光电路交换机）技术，谷歌不仅突破了传统数据中心的能效与扩展瓶颈，更为下一代智算网络确立了新的架构标准。TPU与OCS的深度耦合，不仅支撑了Gemini等大模型的高效迭代，也直接带动了上游光模块（特别是1.6T）、MEMS芯片、光器件等产业链环节的增量需求。AI数据中心正从静态架构向动态光子互联演进。TPU v7“Ironwood”放量：ASIC市场的主导力量中泰证券认为，谷歌AI已围绕芯片（TPU）—网络(OCS)—模型(Gemini)—应用(云计算/搜索/广告等)全栈优势构筑护城河。从2011年谷歌成立谷歌大脑 （Google Brain）实验室开始涉足AI开始，一系列具有影响力的AI研究相继问世，包括2017年发布Transformer架构到2023年推出多模态大模型Gemini，目前已形成从芯片到集群架构到大模型再到应用端的布局，谷歌将AI逐步整合到多元业务流程中，这些业务为谷歌获取了海量数据，用于训练完善AI。分析师强调，谷歌自研芯片的跨越式发展是其算力战略的核心。即将全面上市的TPU v7（Ironwood）在性能上实现了质的飞跃，单芯片计算能力较上一代TPU v5p提升超过十倍，峰值带宽达7.4 TB/s。在集群架构上，Ironwood继续沿用且优化了3D Torus（三维环面）拓扑结构。该架构允许将多个“4×4×4”的立方体构建块动态组合，单集群规模可扩展至9216颗芯片。为了匹配这一极高的算力密度，TPU v7开始配置1.6T光模块，这也带动了市场对高速光模块需求的预期上修。供应链调研指出，2026年谷歌TPU将成为全球自研ASIC市场的主力，预计出货量远高于AWS Trainium或Microsoft Maia等竞品。随着英伟达GB200与谷歌TPU v7的双重拉动，2026年行业1.6T光模块需求有望上修至2000万只以上。OCS：打破传统电交换瓶颈的关键技术中泰证券表示，谷歌在AI数据中心大规模引入OCS（光电路交换机）的核心逻辑在于解决大规模扩展（Scale-Out）带来的功耗与效率难题。传统数据中心架构正在失效。在传统Clos架构中，随着算力集群规模指数级扩张，基于电信号的分组交换机（EPS）面临着严重的功耗散热问题和昂贵的布线成本。据Cisco测算，数据中心交换系统的总功耗在过去十余年间提升了22倍。谷歌引入OCS，本质上是用物理光路直接传输数据，彻底抛弃了“光—电—光”的信号转换过程。这其中，OCS是实现服务器解耦（Server Disaggregation）的关键，它允许计算资源跨机架动态编排，像搭积木一样组合算力，从而突破了静态机架的资源浪费瓶颈。在Ironwood集群中，48台OCS交换机连接了9216个TPU芯片，构建了一个低延迟、高带宽的动态光子网络。数据证明了这一技术路线的优越性：引入OCS定制化网络后，谷歌网络的吞吐量提升了30%，功耗降低了40%，网络宕机时间减少了50倍，最关键的是，它让资本开支减少了30%。解构谷歌OCS：独特的MEMS技术与定制光器件价值中泰证券表示，理解“谷歌链”的投资价值，必须理解OCS的物理构成。目前谷歌主流的Palomar OCS基于MEMS（微机电系统）方案，拥有136个光路通道（实际使用128路）。其核心工作原理是通过2D MEMS微镜阵列反射光信号，实现毫秒级的光路切换，无需光收发器进行电信号转换。这套系统带来了一系列独特的硬件需求。首先是定制光模块，谷歌在光模块中内置了环形器（Circulator），实现了单根光纤的双向传输，这使得所需的端口和光缆数量不仅比传统胖树架构减少了40%，还创造了环形器这一增量市场。其次是核心光学元件，包括MEMS阵列、准直器、2D透镜阵列等，这些精密光学元器件的单机价值量极高。此外，虽然谷歌目前主推MEMS方案，但也正在探索液晶、压电陶瓷和硅光波导等新技术路径，为供应链上的技术创新者提供了潜在的入局机会。OCS技术的崛起为光通信产业链带来了全新的增量环节。随着微软、Meta等其他云服务商也开始探索OCS应用，Lightcounting预测2024-2029年OCS市场将以28%的复合增速增长，行业正迎来技术与需求的双重爆发期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":1.5,"GOOG":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504028146819216,"gmtCreate":1764063939258,"gmtModify":1764063941596,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"竞争中也有合作","listText":"竞争中也有合作","text":"竞争中也有合作","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504028146819216","repostId":"1191898700","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191898700","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1764061059,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191898700?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 16:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银：OpenAI造成两难局面，给科技巨头带来冲击","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191898700","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"可能会为美国科技巨头带来麻烦。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>由OpenAI推动的庞大资本支出循环，是今年最重要的市场趋势之一，但美银发表的研究报告认为，最终可能会为美国科技巨头带来麻烦。</p><p>OpenAI处于风险边缘，美银分析师Justin Post近日点出一个尴尬情况：AI超大规模运算业者一方面急着与OpenAI签约，另一方面却同时在与这家ChatGPT开发商竞争。</p><p>外界一直在思考，<strong>OpenAI的烧钱扩张到底能持续多久、规模能到多大，特别是该公司投入的资金已超过其可预期的营收。</strong>不过，美银分析师Justin Post指出，最终可能出现更多问题的，其实是那些与OpenAI签订合作的大型科技公司。Post表示，投资者应把格局拉大，因为OpenAI正在重塑更广泛的科技版图。他说：“战略风险是双面的。如果OpenAI成功，它就会成为更大的竞争威胁；但如果公司未达内部目标，可能无法充分使用已签约的运算资源，进而造成产能过剩、拖累云端产业营收。”</p><p>但是，有风险的并不只有这些超大规模运算业者。随这家新创持续扩张，美银也认为OpenAI将在短期内争夺行销与广告预算，对Meta与YouTube等巨头产生负面影响。如何达到收入目标，均是大家心中的问题，而OpenAI到底会否拓展广告业务，亦未可料。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银：OpenAI造成两难局面，给科技巨头带来冲击\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-25 16:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>由OpenAI推动的庞大资本支出循环，是今年最重要的市场趋势之一，但美银发表的研究报告认为，最终可能会为美国科技巨头带来麻烦。</p><p>OpenAI处于风险边缘，美银分析师Justin Post近日点出一个尴尬情况：AI超大规模运算业者一方面急着与OpenAI签约，另一方面却同时在与这家ChatGPT开发商竞争。</p><p>外界一直在思考，<strong>OpenAI的烧钱扩张到底能持续多久、规模能到多大，特别是该公司投入的资金已超过其可预期的营收。</strong>不过，美银分析师Justin Post指出，最终可能出现更多问题的，其实是那些与OpenAI签订合作的大型科技公司。Post表示，投资者应把格局拉大，因为OpenAI正在重塑更广泛的科技版图。他说：“战略风险是双面的。如果OpenAI成功，它就会成为更大的竞争威胁；但如果公司未达内部目标，可能无法充分使用已签约的运算资源，进而造成产能过剩、拖累云端产业营收。”</p><p>但是，有风险的并不只有这些超大规模运算业者。随这家新创持续扩张，美银也认为OpenAI将在短期内争夺行销与广告预算，对Meta与YouTube等巨头产生负面影响。如何达到收入目标，均是大家心中的问题，而OpenAI到底会否拓展广告业务，亦未可料。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760056d3ed9e8c1a595c0d9f2094cc4d","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","TSLA":"特斯拉","GOOG":"谷歌","NVDA":"英伟达","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191898700","content_text":"由OpenAI推动的庞大资本支出循环，是今年最重要的市场趋势之一，但美银发表的研究报告认为，最终可能会为美国科技巨头带来麻烦。OpenAI处于风险边缘，美银分析师Justin Post近日点出一个尴尬情况：AI超大规模运算业者一方面急着与OpenAI签约，另一方面却同时在与这家ChatGPT开发商竞争。外界一直在思考，OpenAI的烧钱扩张到底能持续多久、规模能到多大，特别是该公司投入的资金已超过其可预期的营收。不过，美银分析师Justin Post指出，最终可能出现更多问题的，其实是那些与OpenAI签订合作的大型科技公司。Post表示，投资者应把格局拉大，因为OpenAI正在重塑更广泛的科技版图。他说：“战略风险是双面的。如果OpenAI成功，它就会成为更大的竞争威胁；但如果公司未达内部目标，可能无法充分使用已签约的运算资源，进而造成产能过剩、拖累云端产业营收。”但是，有风险的并不只有这些超大规模运算业者。随这家新创持续扩张，美银也认为OpenAI将在短期内争夺行销与广告预算，对Meta与YouTube等巨头产生负面影响。如何达到收入目标，均是大家心中的问题，而OpenAI到底会否拓展广告业务，亦未可料。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":2,"GOOG":2,"META":2,"TSLA":2,"NVDA":2,"AAPL":2,"AMZN":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504027646542656,"gmtCreate":1764063695006,"gmtModify":1764063697307,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"做空的来争夺话语权了","listText":"做空的来争夺话语权了","text":"做空的来争夺话语权了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504027646542656","repostId":"2586255444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2586255444","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764061740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586255444?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 17:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586255444","media":"Ofweek光电信息网","summary":"但这背后，实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争，甚至对于强大的阿里，只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。阿里的压力也很大，多个领域同时开战。▌1、全面竞争的陷阱大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张，雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。电商和AI，阿里都面临着强敌的竞争，阿里既要守住电商的大本营，又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。","content":"<html><body><article><p>一片掌声之下，阿里开始变得不对劲。</p><p>最近半年阿里频频公布“战绩”，比如像前两天公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。</p><p>更早之前，是阿里主打的点评类产品高德扫街榜上线23天突破4亿用户，淘宝闪购日订单量突破1亿。</p><p>这也是阿里今年的两个战略核心方向：电商+AI。一个是以闪购为代表的电商业务线找增量，一个是以AI为代表的技术线找突破。</p><p>阿里新业务看上去形势一片大好。</p><p>但是业界也有人士评论阿里的高调宣传之下，“宣传是很加分，猛一看，还以为阿里已经打完仗赢了呢。”</p><p>但这背后，实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争，甚至对于强大的阿里，只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。</p><p>阿里的压力也很大，多个领域同时开战。</p><p>说实话，要不是这家公司是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，如此多业务同时开展，换做任何一家其他公司身上，都会被扣上盲目扩张、战略失焦、多元化陷阱等“帽子”。</p><p><strong>▌1、全面竞争的陷阱</strong></p><p>大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张，雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。</p><p>一家在移动互联网时代买下半个互联网的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>，一家“富可敌国“、被称作”史上从来没出现过的庞然大物”的阿里巴巴。</p><p>这是曾经阿里的“荣誉称号”，但这并不代表阿里巴巴当下的处境以及应对策略是最优的，以及可被理解的。</p><p>阿里早已经不是那个“一超多强”下的阿里了。</p><p>他的对手诸如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、字节，早已经不是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>。当年资金、资源雄厚的阿里巴巴用钱都砸不死的创业公司，凭什么现在就能打赢呢？</p><p>另外，阿里巴巴从前也没有过在多个战场、多线作战的经验。</p><p>阿里巴巴曾经在电商、移动互联网、支付、云服务等多个业务场景和国内的巨头掰手腕，但是不难发现阿里都是凭借在上一个阶段的优势，拿下下一个阶段的胜利。</p><p>比如从电商到支付，从移动互联网到云服务，这些都是基于过往的业务优势。</p><p>正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>从QQ到微信，从移动互联网入口到整个内容生态，双方结果也是并没有在对方的领域里讨到好处。</p><p>现在的竞争状态完全不同。电商和AI，阿里都面临着强敌的竞争，阿里既要守住电商的大本营，又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。</p><p>AI大模型领域，阿里是开源强，并非是C端强。</p><p>千问的改版和Gemini 3的发布就差了一天，但是口碑却“天差地别”。</p><p>同样是铺天盖地的宣传和报道，但Gemini 3是自来水。在这一天，很多尝试过Gemini 3的都感叹，大模型的竞争要结束了。</p><p>相比之下，千问还在理不清定位和名字的阶段。从千问的对外宣传来看，还在基础的作图、识图、对话这些基本的功能上。</p><p>这么说话可能有点重。</p><p>但是，千问不是一个新推出的应用啊。</p><p>2023年阿里就推出了通义千问大模型，到现在2年半了阿里还在改通义千问的名字，说实话属于依然没想清楚的阶段。</p><p>相信很多人之前都听到一种说法，阿里的大模型全球第一，李飞飞都是用的通义做训练。</p><p>其实这和千问不是一个层面的问题。阿里大模型是开源第一，相比于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>的llama衍生模型更多。</p><p>举个例子，这就好比阿里云市场份额第一，但是阿里的APP依然弹窗一堆，体验非常差。</p><p>阿里的开源大模型就好比阿里云，是基础设施、是行业第一，但是C端的大模型就像是阿里的APP，这两个没有必然联系。</p><p><strong>▌2、阿里还是“阿Q”？</strong></p><p>最近阿里公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。</p><p>铺天盖地的宣传，不禁想起了一个月前的高德扫街榜。</p><p>同样配方。</p><p>高德扫街榜推出前几日，互联网上渲染出阿里保密3个月的神秘项目，并且高德扫街榜被宣传为阿里对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>点评的核心产品。</p><p>在不久后的国庆节假期，阿里对高德扫肩棒进行了高密度的宣传和推广。</p><p>尤其是在假期之后，阿里对高德的成果的定义是达到了4亿的日活。</p><p>这种通过小道消息放料预热、产品发出后正面宣传的结合，是阿里多年来手到擒来的拿手好戏，当年最著名的就是阿里巴巴和苏宁的重大资本合作，通过保密→放料→预热→发布，这一路径给市场带来了充分的噱头。</p><p>千问改版前，也有消息传出阿里已抽调上百名工程师秘密办公，杭州总部园区两层办公楼被划为项目专属区域，同时研发面向全球市场的国际版千问APP，计划与ChatGPT争夺海外用户。</p><p>并且还有戏剧性的传闻，阿里的保密项目因为“食堂的粤菜窗口开始排起长龙，烧鸭饭都要卖脱销了”这一野史般的小道消息，被外界判断阿里的项目和AI有关，因为业内有个传闻，“中国AI看广东”，比如DeepSeek创始人、Qwen大语言模型负责人等AI大佬都是广东人。</p><p>并非说宣传是加分项还是减分项，但是市场越来越偏向于理工科的行事方式，也越来越倾向于直来直去、专心业务的打法，而不是这种花里胡哨的行为。</p><p>尤其是如果产品本身还不够能打的话，宣传就会在秋后算账中算作是减分项，因为你不仅混淆了市场的视听，自己也会被虚假的繁荣蒙蔽。</p><p>阿里这半年来给市场的数据也不是足够让人信服。</p><p>比如说高德扫街榜用户达到4亿这一数字，统计口径是如何的就并不是很清晰。</p><p>比如说抖音用了数年的时间，才达到了4亿的用户/日活。比如说视频号在微信的全力推广下，用了半年时间也才到2亿用户。</p><p>那么高德扫街榜的4亿用户是怎么计算的呢？</p><p>再比如说，通义千问已经上线了3年的基础上，改名为千问后首周下载突破千万，那么阿里为了达到这一数据在各个平台上投放了多少呢？这些数据综合起来看可能才会更加清晰。</p><p><strong>▌3、对账</strong></p><p>很多事情后来大家就发现不对劲了。</p><p>比如说，闪购打了几个月的补贴大战后，questmobile的数据显示淘宝的月活竟然增幅远远小于美团。</p><p>今年11月questmobile发布的秋季大数据显示，淘宝在今年9月份的月活跃用户为9.8亿，同比增长4.1%。美团的月活用户为5.2亿，同比增长7%，而大众点评的月活用户为1.59亿，同比增长28.8%，是这三者中增速最高的。</p><p>值得注意的是，这个数据是同比的数据。也就说闪购给淘宝带来的月活规模增长并没有那么明显，闪购只算是激活了淘宝的老用户，而不是拉来了新用户。</p><p>要知道，2025年自然年第二季度销售和市场费用从327亿元大幅增长到532亿元，增幅高达62.7%，多花了200多亿元，新用户就增长了4.1%，相当于每个新用户的获取成本就高达500元。</p><p>高德扫街榜在一波热潮之下，主观感受来讲，现在也较少被阿里提及到了。</p><img src=\"https://mp.ofweek.com/Upload/News/Img/member99956776/202511/25165855354109.png\"/><p>（淘宝同比增速较低，数据来自questmobile秋季大报告）</p><p>淘宝闪购的团购业务，最终的结果貌似也不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想</a>。</p><p>今年9月淘宝闪购在外卖烧钱大战之后，开始启动到店团购业务，首批复盖上海、深圳、嘉兴三地的核心商业区域，涉及茶饮、甜品、正餐、自助餐及城市特色小吃等多个餐饮品类。</p><p>但是到了两个月后，据《第一财经》YiMagazine报道，团购业务已不再是淘宝闪购的业务重心，相关业务已转移到高德。</p><p>原因是，团购业务“没有做起来，第一批试点的水花没有那么大，淘宝闪购的团购业务在最初试点那几天部分商家核销是0单。”</p><p>阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。</p><p>财报显示二季度收入2476亿元同比增长2%，若不考虑银<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300801\">泰和</a>高新零售的已处置业务的收入，同口径收入同比增长将为10%，其中，电商业务收入为1186亿元同比增长10%，主要是take rate提升带动，而非GMV。</p><p>这意味着经历了几年较低的货币化率之后，阿里电商业务可能要重新提高货币化率，而货币化率是电商生态的关键指标，简单来说，就是货币化率越低，商家压力越小。</p><p>毕竟，电商业务是阿里的核心，希望不要在若干年后行业总结阿里的失败经验时提到，“因为错误地进行多元化尝试...，为对手创造机会...”。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-25 17:09 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125171835a7104401&s=b><strong>Ofweek光电信息网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一片掌声之下，阿里开始变得不对劲。最近半年阿里频频公布“战绩”，比如像前两天公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。更早之前，是阿里主打的点评类产品高德扫街榜上线23天突破4亿用户，淘宝闪购日订单量突破1亿。这也是阿里今年的两个战略核心方向：电商+AI。一个是以闪购为代表的电商业务线找增量，一个是以AI为代表的技术线找...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125171835a7104401&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1051769294.HKD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A6\"(HKDHDG) INC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 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ACC","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC NC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","LU0651947912.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4558":"双十一","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125171835a7104401&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586255444","content_text":"一片掌声之下，阿里开始变得不对劲。最近半年阿里频频公布“战绩”，比如像前两天公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。更早之前，是阿里主打的点评类产品高德扫街榜上线23天突破4亿用户，淘宝闪购日订单量突破1亿。这也是阿里今年的两个战略核心方向：电商+AI。一个是以闪购为代表的电商业务线找增量，一个是以AI为代表的技术线找突破。阿里新业务看上去形势一片大好。但是业界也有人士评论阿里的高调宣传之下，“宣传是很加分，猛一看，还以为阿里已经打完仗赢了呢。”但这背后，实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争，甚至对于强大的阿里，只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。阿里的压力也很大，多个领域同时开战。说实话，要不是这家公司是阿里巴巴，如此多业务同时开展，换做任何一家其他公司身上，都会被扣上盲目扩张、战略失焦、多元化陷阱等“帽子”。▌1、全面竞争的陷阱大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张，雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。一家在移动互联网时代买下半个互联网的阿里巴巴，一家“富可敌国“、被称作”史上从来没出现过的庞然大物”的阿里巴巴。这是曾经阿里的“荣誉称号”，但这并不代表阿里巴巴当下的处境以及应对策略是最优的，以及可被理解的。阿里早已经不是那个“一超多强”下的阿里了。他的对手诸如美团、字节，早已经不是创业公司。当年资金、资源雄厚的阿里巴巴用钱都砸不死的创业公司，凭什么现在就能打赢呢？另外，阿里巴巴从前也没有过在多个战场、多线作战的经验。阿里巴巴曾经在电商、移动互联网、支付、云服务等多个业务场景和国内的巨头掰手腕，但是不难发现阿里都是凭借在上一个阶段的优势，拿下下一个阶段的胜利。比如从电商到支付，从移动互联网到云服务，这些都是基于过往的业务优势。正如腾讯从QQ到微信，从移动互联网入口到整个内容生态，双方结果也是并没有在对方的领域里讨到好处。现在的竞争状态完全不同。电商和AI，阿里都面临着强敌的竞争，阿里既要守住电商的大本营，又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。AI大模型领域，阿里是开源强，并非是C端强。千问的改版和Gemini 3的发布就差了一天，但是口碑却“天差地别”。同样是铺天盖地的宣传和报道，但Gemini 3是自来水。在这一天，很多尝试过Gemini 3的都感叹，大模型的竞争要结束了。相比之下，千问还在理不清定位和名字的阶段。从千问的对外宣传来看，还在基础的作图、识图、对话这些基本的功能上。这么说话可能有点重。但是，千问不是一个新推出的应用啊。2023年阿里就推出了通义千问大模型，到现在2年半了阿里还在改通义千问的名字，说实话属于依然没想清楚的阶段。相信很多人之前都听到一种说法，阿里的大模型全球第一，李飞飞都是用的通义做训练。其实这和千问不是一个层面的问题。阿里大模型是开源第一，相比于Meta的llama衍生模型更多。举个例子，这就好比阿里云市场份额第一，但是阿里的APP依然弹窗一堆，体验非常差。阿里的开源大模型就好比阿里云，是基础设施、是行业第一，但是C端的大模型就像是阿里的APP，这两个没有必然联系。▌2、阿里还是“阿Q”？最近阿里公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩，一个是首周下载突破千万，一个是上线6天下载突破200万。铺天盖地的宣传，不禁想起了一个月前的高德扫街榜。同样配方。高德扫街榜推出前几日，互联网上渲染出阿里保密3个月的神秘项目，并且高德扫街榜被宣传为阿里对标美团点评的核心产品。在不久后的国庆节假期，阿里对高德扫肩棒进行了高密度的宣传和推广。尤其是在假期之后，阿里对高德的成果的定义是达到了4亿的日活。这种通过小道消息放料预热、产品发出后正面宣传的结合，是阿里多年来手到擒来的拿手好戏，当年最著名的就是阿里巴巴和苏宁的重大资本合作，通过保密→放料→预热→发布，这一路径给市场带来了充分的噱头。千问改版前，也有消息传出阿里已抽调上百名工程师秘密办公，杭州总部园区两层办公楼被划为项目专属区域，同时研发面向全球市场的国际版千问APP，计划与ChatGPT争夺海外用户。并且还有戏剧性的传闻，阿里的保密项目因为“食堂的粤菜窗口开始排起长龙，烧鸭饭都要卖脱销了”这一野史般的小道消息，被外界判断阿里的项目和AI有关，因为业内有个传闻，“中国AI看广东”，比如DeepSeek创始人、Qwen大语言模型负责人等AI大佬都是广东人。并非说宣传是加分项还是减分项，但是市场越来越偏向于理工科的行事方式，也越来越倾向于直来直去、专心业务的打法，而不是这种花里胡哨的行为。尤其是如果产品本身还不够能打的话，宣传就会在秋后算账中算作是减分项，因为你不仅混淆了市场的视听，自己也会被虚假的繁荣蒙蔽。阿里这半年来给市场的数据也不是足够让人信服。比如说高德扫街榜用户达到4亿这一数字，统计口径是如何的就并不是很清晰。比如说抖音用了数年的时间，才达到了4亿的用户/日活。比如说视频号在微信的全力推广下，用了半年时间也才到2亿用户。那么高德扫街榜的4亿用户是怎么计算的呢？再比如说，通义千问已经上线了3年的基础上，改名为千问后首周下载突破千万，那么阿里为了达到这一数据在各个平台上投放了多少呢？这些数据综合起来看可能才会更加清晰。▌3、对账很多事情后来大家就发现不对劲了。比如说，闪购打了几个月的补贴大战后，questmobile的数据显示淘宝的月活竟然增幅远远小于美团。今年11月questmobile发布的秋季大数据显示，淘宝在今年9月份的月活跃用户为9.8亿，同比增长4.1%。美团的月活用户为5.2亿，同比增长7%，而大众点评的月活用户为1.59亿，同比增长28.8%，是这三者中增速最高的。值得注意的是，这个数据是同比的数据。也就说闪购给淘宝带来的月活规模增长并没有那么明显，闪购只算是激活了淘宝的老用户，而不是拉来了新用户。要知道，2025年自然年第二季度销售和市场费用从327亿元大幅增长到532亿元，增幅高达62.7%，多花了200多亿元，新用户就增长了4.1%，相当于每个新用户的获取成本就高达500元。高德扫街榜在一波热潮之下，主观感受来讲，现在也较少被阿里提及到了。（淘宝同比增速较低，数据来自questmobile秋季大报告）淘宝闪购的团购业务，最终的结果貌似也不理想。今年9月淘宝闪购在外卖烧钱大战之后，开始启动到店团购业务，首批复盖上海、深圳、嘉兴三地的核心商业区域，涉及茶饮、甜品、正餐、自助餐及城市特色小吃等多个餐饮品类。但是到了两个月后，据《第一财经》YiMagazine报道，团购业务已不再是淘宝闪购的业务重心，相关业务已转移到高德。原因是，团购业务“没有做起来，第一批试点的水花没有那么大，淘宝闪购的团购业务在最初试点那几天部分商家核销是0单。”阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。财报显示二季度收入2476亿元同比增长2%，若不考虑银泰和高新零售的已处置业务的收入，同口径收入同比增长将为10%，其中，电商业务收入为1186亿元同比增长10%，主要是take rate提升带动，而非GMV。这意味着经历了几年较低的货币化率之后，阿里电商业务可能要重新提高货币化率，而货币化率是电商生态的关键指标，简单来说，就是货币化率越低，商家压力越小。毕竟，电商业务是阿里的核心，希望不要在若干年后行业总结阿里的失败经验时提到，“因为错误地进行多元化尝试...，为对手创造机会...”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":503842529272160,"gmtCreate":1764030679362,"gmtModify":1764030681784,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"认同产业分析师","listText":"认同产业分析师","text":"认同产业分析师","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/503842529272160","repostId":"1137565525","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137565525","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764002964,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137565525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 00:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"知名分析师郭明錤驳斥英伟达做空论：DSO与库存上升属业务正常扩张","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137565525","media":"智通财经","summary":"并非财务异常。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 近期公布亮眼季度业绩与前瞻后股价反而下跌，使得市场看空声音有所升温。部分做空者将焦点放在应收账款天数(DSO)上升与库存增加这两项指标，引发对公司财务质量的担忧。然而，天风国际分析师郭明錤表示，这些质疑并无充分依据，也未正确理解英伟达当前的业务结构变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">智通财经APP获悉，郭明錤指出，英伟达本财年第三季度的应收账款天数从过去数年的平均46天上升至53天，被部分批评者视为“财务恶化甚至造假”的迹象，但这种看法忽略了应收账款集中度大幅提升这一关键因素。过去财年英伟达来自大客户的应收账款占比平均仅23.8%，在本季度则攀升至65%。随着账款更集中于少数大型客户，付款周期拉长是合理现象，尤其云端服务提供商(CSPs)一直以来都有较长账期，这是行业惯例，反映的是大客户更强的议价能力，而非财务异常。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，他批评做空者选择了错误的对标公司。多空双方对比的是并非主要服务云端客户的企业，因此得出的结论失真。若将英伟达与同样以CSPs为主要客户的厂商比较，例如Arista、Celestica 和Vertiv，这些公司的应收账款天数通常都超过60至70天。相较之下，英伟达目前53天的DSO不但不异常，反而位于合理区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于库存，市场也出现“需求不振”或“数据造假”的揣测，因为英伟达库存环比增长32%，似乎与黄仁勋口中的云端GPU“全部售罄”不符。郭明錤对此回应指出，做空者的比较基准同样存在事实错误。首先，FY23第二季度库存并未下降，而是环比增长约23%至38.89亿美元。其次，本季度库存的32%环比增长，与上游产能扩张趋势高度一致。台积电CoWoS(晶圆上芯片封装)月产能估计在今年第三季度环比增加25至30%，提升至每月约6万片。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更重要的是，本季度英伟达库存中“在制品”(Work-in-Process)占比最高，达到总库存的44.2%，金额环比大增98%至87.35亿美元。这主要反映今年第三季度开始大量量产全新Blackwell架构的B300 GPU，而非库存积压。郭明錤强调，这不仅不是财务异常，而是显示英伟达已提前为B300的强劲需求做准备。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤认为，市场对英伟达的财务指标出现误读，相关批评忽视了客户结构变化、行业账期特性与产能周期的影响。库存与应收账款天数的变化均可由业务扩张与新品量产解释，与所谓的“财务造假”毫无关联。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>知名分析师郭明錤驳斥英伟达做空论：DSO与库存上升属业务正常扩张</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n知名分析师郭明錤驳斥英伟达做空论：DSO与库存上升属业务正常扩张\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-25 00:49 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1373004.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英伟达 近期公布亮眼季度业绩与前瞻后股价反而下跌，使得市场看空声音有所升温。部分做空者将焦点放在应收账款天数(DSO)上升与库存增加这两项指标，引发对公司财务质量的担忧。然而，天风国际分析师郭明錤表示，这些质疑并无充分依据，也未正确理解英伟达当前的业务结构变化。智通财经APP获悉，郭明錤指出，英伟达本财年第三季度的应收账款天数从过去数年的平均46天上升至53天，被部分批评者视为“财务恶化甚至造假”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1373004.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c9663e6a82dc37414aadf986627f512","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1373004.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1137565525","content_text":"英伟达 近期公布亮眼季度业绩与前瞻后股价反而下跌，使得市场看空声音有所升温。部分做空者将焦点放在应收账款天数(DSO)上升与库存增加这两项指标，引发对公司财务质量的担忧。然而，天风国际分析师郭明錤表示，这些质疑并无充分依据，也未正确理解英伟达当前的业务结构变化。智通财经APP获悉，郭明錤指出，英伟达本财年第三季度的应收账款天数从过去数年的平均46天上升至53天，被部分批评者视为“财务恶化甚至造假”的迹象，但这种看法忽略了应收账款集中度大幅提升这一关键因素。过去财年英伟达来自大客户的应收账款占比平均仅23.8%，在本季度则攀升至65%。随着账款更集中于少数大型客户，付款周期拉长是合理现象，尤其云端服务提供商(CSPs)一直以来都有较长账期，这是行业惯例，反映的是大客户更强的议价能力，而非财务异常。此外，他批评做空者选择了错误的对标公司。多空双方对比的是并非主要服务云端客户的企业，因此得出的结论失真。若将英伟达与同样以CSPs为主要客户的厂商比较，例如Arista、Celestica 和Vertiv，这些公司的应收账款天数通常都超过60至70天。相较之下，英伟达目前53天的DSO不但不异常，反而位于合理区间。关于库存，市场也出现“需求不振”或“数据造假”的揣测，因为英伟达库存环比增长32%，似乎与黄仁勋口中的云端GPU“全部售罄”不符。郭明錤对此回应指出，做空者的比较基准同样存在事实错误。首先，FY23第二季度库存并未下降，而是环比增长约23%至38.89亿美元。其次，本季度库存的32%环比增长，与上游产能扩张趋势高度一致。台积电CoWoS(晶圆上芯片封装)月产能估计在今年第三季度环比增加25至30%，提升至每月约6万片。更重要的是，本季度英伟达库存中“在制品”(Work-in-Process)占比最高，达到总库存的44.2%，金额环比大增98%至87.35亿美元。这主要反映今年第三季度开始大量量产全新Blackwell架构的B300 GPU，而非库存积压。郭明錤强调，这不仅不是财务异常，而是显示英伟达已提前为B300的强劲需求做准备。郭明錤认为，市场对英伟达的财务指标出现误读，相关批评忽视了客户结构变化、行业账期特性与产能周期的影响。库存与应收账款天数的变化均可由业务扩张与新品量产解释，与所谓的“财务造假”毫无关联。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502559968362536,"gmtCreate":1763723498828,"gmtModify":1763723501466,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"人家赖得搭理你还卖翘，浪费生命时间，马斯克连巴菲特都看不起，认为一生不为社会创造价值。","listText":"人家赖得搭理你还卖翘，浪费生命时间，马斯克连巴菲特都看不起，认为一生不为社会创造价值。","text":"人家赖得搭理你还卖翘，浪费生命时间，马斯克连巴菲特都看不起，认为一生不为社会创造价值。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502559968362536","repostId":"2585212115","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585212115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763718923,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2585212115?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-21 17:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"段永平：我不想跟马斯克做朋友，但投资特斯拉还是可以的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585212115","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在近日的访谈中，段永平公开表示“投资特斯拉实际上是在跟马斯克做朋友，我不想跟他做朋友”。然而，话音未落，他又公开称自己买了特斯拉的股票。对此，段永平表示：“不做朋友但还是可以投资的。”面对部分网友的询问，段永平也进行了回应：“不是玩笑，是认真的。”另有网友询问段永平是直接购买股票，还是卖Put。但是特斯拉的电动车做出了差异化。不仅段永平对特斯拉的态度变了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>段永平近日表示已开始投资特斯拉，采用卖出短期认沽期权的方式。尽管他此前明确表示不喜欢马斯克品行、不想与其做朋友，但认可马斯克能力和特斯拉产品差异化优势。他坚持"做朋友是一回事，投资是另一回事"，判断十年后回看这笔投资可能是对的。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">做朋友是一回事儿，投资是另一回事儿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在近日的访谈中，段永平公开表示“投资特斯拉实际上是在跟马斯克做朋友，我不想跟他做朋友”。然而，话音未落，他又公开称自己买了特斯拉的股票。对此，段永平表示：“不做朋友但还是可以投资的。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4116518923\" style=\"text-align: left;\">段永平买入特斯拉</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">11月20日，段永平在雪球上公开发文表示：“最近终于再多花了点时间看了很多马斯克的东西。面对他的那么多厉害的产品，我上个礼拜和这个礼拜已经开始投点在特斯拉上了，满意了吧？最近几年确实感受到马斯克的厉害，而且他的第一性原理我是很好理解的。不做朋友但还是可以投资的嘛，反正他也不打球。就当风投吧，我觉得10年后回头看，这个投资也许是对的。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一石激起千层浪，网友们对此议论纷纷。面对部分网友的询问，段永平也进行了回应：“不是玩笑，是认真的。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb040b3ad4f6b4e0e44bd728135f7a1b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"699\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另有网友询问段永平是直接购买股票，还是卖Put。段永平表示：“我卖put了，我很可能会一直卖，除非我又又又改变想法了。目前以卖短期的put为主，因为年化比较高（我觉得也许不至于就一飞冲天了吧）。我卖put的时候最重要的就是想一点：这个价钱卖给我10年后回头看是个便宜的价钱吗？如果答案是不便宜，那这个put就不可以卖。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce522e5e0acc5774623225b49b68c42\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得一提的是，在近日与雪球创始人方三文的对话中，段永平曾谈及对特斯拉的看法。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示：“马斯克这个人厉害，他有很多想法，也确实是很先进的。但是投资我觉得比较难，从个人的角度来讲，我不是很喜欢这个人的品行。你投资实际上是在跟他做朋友，我不想跟他做朋友，哪怕给我钱我也不干。所以我没有那么喜欢这件事情，但是我认识到他确实是厉害。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在谈及特斯拉的时候，段永平表示，电动车这个生意不会太好，会很累，它差异化很小。但是特斯拉的电动车做出了差异化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他直言：“现在我不知道有多少家企业在做电动车，就像我们当年做游戏机一样，可能有几百家，卷到最后就剩几家，那几家是赚钱的，但这几百家都是要倒的。所以你现在看到的电动车大部分都会死掉，这个我可以肯定，谁会活下来我不知道。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1877356034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">新能源后市机会如何？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅段永平对特斯拉的态度变了。近期，国内市场对新能源板块的态度也发生了变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">经历多年调整，新能源板块终于否极泰来，短短两三个月时间，多只新能源主题ETF涨幅超过40%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">新能源板块后续机会如何也成为当前市场关注的焦点。诺德基金经理王恒楠发表观点称，当前A股市场呈现较鲜明的阶段性结构化行情特征，资金围绕高景气赛道轮动布局，整体活跃度较高。其中，新能源汽车产业链内部热点轮动频繁，从电池材料到智能化部件，技术迭代与旺季需求共同推动板块交替走强，或现结构性机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在工银瑞信基金看来，当前固态电池产业趋势确定，头部企业采用无负极的终局路线且效果较好，产业化进展超预期。固态电池的快速发展有望带来锂电池产业链的全面更新及设备价值量的大幅提升，电池、设备、材料等相关产业链环节有望迎来投资机会。具体来看，固态电池可关注等静压设备等设备端最新变化，以及硫化锂、碘化锂、无负极集流体等材料端相关环节。在电池端，龙头企业新产能投产并采取稳价策略，以争取市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“经过深度调整后，新能源板块各环节价格和盈利均处于低位，在市场因素与‘反内卷’政策共同作用下，供给端开始出现积极变化。”泉果基金经理赵诣此前在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，“反内卷”为新能源板块创造了利好的政策环境，缓解了行业价格通缩，加速了供需改善，但更根本的还是要看需求端的表现。只有在需求持续旺盛的行业，才可能出现更大的投资机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从近期资金流向看，据Choice测算，多只新能源主题ETF吸引资金涌入。具体来看，四季度以来，截至11月19日，汇添富中证电池主题ETF净申购额为16.96亿元，易方达国证新能源电池ETF净申购额为15.58亿元，广发国证新能源车电池ETF净申购额也超过10亿元。</p></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平：我不想跟马斯克做朋友，但投资特斯拉还是可以的</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平：我不想跟马斯克做朋友，但投资特斯拉还是可以的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-21 17:55 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025112117162395126537&s=b><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>段永平近日表示已开始投资特斯拉，采用卖出短期认沽期权的方式。尽管他此前明确表示不喜欢马斯克品行、不想与其做朋友，但认可马斯克能力和特斯拉产品差异化优势。他坚持\"做朋友是一回事，投资是另一回事\"，判断十年后回看这笔投资可能是对的。做朋友是一回事儿，投资是另一回事儿。在近日的访谈中，段永平公开表示“投资特斯拉实际上是在跟马斯克做朋友，我不想跟他做朋友”。然而，话音未落，他又公开称自己买了特斯拉的股票。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025112117162395126537&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025112117162395126537&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2585212115","content_text":"段永平近日表示已开始投资特斯拉，采用卖出短期认沽期权的方式。尽管他此前明确表示不喜欢马斯克品行、不想与其做朋友，但认可马斯克能力和特斯拉产品差异化优势。他坚持\"做朋友是一回事，投资是另一回事\"，判断十年后回看这笔投资可能是对的。做朋友是一回事儿，投资是另一回事儿。在近日的访谈中，段永平公开表示“投资特斯拉实际上是在跟马斯克做朋友，我不想跟他做朋友”。然而，话音未落，他又公开称自己买了特斯拉的股票。对此，段永平表示：“不做朋友但还是可以投资的。”段永平买入特斯拉11月20日，段永平在雪球上公开发文表示：“最近终于再多花了点时间看了很多马斯克的东西。面对他的那么多厉害的产品，我上个礼拜和这个礼拜已经开始投点在特斯拉上了，满意了吧？最近几年确实感受到马斯克的厉害，而且他的第一性原理我是很好理解的。不做朋友但还是可以投资的嘛，反正他也不打球。就当风投吧，我觉得10年后回头看，这个投资也许是对的。”一石激起千层浪，网友们对此议论纷纷。面对部分网友的询问，段永平也进行了回应：“不是玩笑，是认真的。”另有网友询问段永平是直接购买股票，还是卖Put。段永平表示：“我卖put了，我很可能会一直卖，除非我又又又改变想法了。目前以卖短期的put为主，因为年化比较高（我觉得也许不至于就一飞冲天了吧）。我卖put的时候最重要的就是想一点：这个价钱卖给我10年后回头看是个便宜的价钱吗？如果答案是不便宜，那这个put就不可以卖。”值得一提的是，在近日与雪球创始人方三文的对话中，段永平曾谈及对特斯拉的看法。他表示：“马斯克这个人厉害，他有很多想法，也确实是很先进的。但是投资我觉得比较难，从个人的角度来讲，我不是很喜欢这个人的品行。你投资实际上是在跟他做朋友，我不想跟他做朋友，哪怕给我钱我也不干。所以我没有那么喜欢这件事情，但是我认识到他确实是厉害。”在谈及特斯拉的时候，段永平表示，电动车这个生意不会太好，会很累，它差异化很小。但是特斯拉的电动车做出了差异化。他直言：“现在我不知道有多少家企业在做电动车，就像我们当年做游戏机一样，可能有几百家，卷到最后就剩几家，那几家是赚钱的，但这几百家都是要倒的。所以你现在看到的电动车大部分都会死掉，这个我可以肯定，谁会活下来我不知道。”新能源后市机会如何？不仅段永平对特斯拉的态度变了。近期，国内市场对新能源板块的态度也发生了变化。经历多年调整，新能源板块终于否极泰来，短短两三个月时间，多只新能源主题ETF涨幅超过40%。新能源板块后续机会如何也成为当前市场关注的焦点。诺德基金经理王恒楠发表观点称，当前A股市场呈现较鲜明的阶段性结构化行情特征，资金围绕高景气赛道轮动布局，整体活跃度较高。其中，新能源汽车产业链内部热点轮动频繁，从电池材料到智能化部件，技术迭代与旺季需求共同推动板块交替走强，或现结构性机会。在工银瑞信基金看来，当前固态电池产业趋势确定，头部企业采用无负极的终局路线且效果较好，产业化进展超预期。固态电池的快速发展有望带来锂电池产业链的全面更新及设备价值量的大幅提升，电池、设备、材料等相关产业链环节有望迎来投资机会。具体来看，固态电池可关注等静压设备等设备端最新变化，以及硫化锂、碘化锂、无负极集流体等材料端相关环节。在电池端，龙头企业新产能投产并采取稳价策略，以争取市场份额。“经过深度调整后，新能源板块各环节价格和盈利均处于低位，在市场因素与‘反内卷’政策共同作用下，供给端开始出现积极变化。”泉果基金经理赵诣此前在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，“反内卷”为新能源板块创造了利好的政策环境，缓解了行业价格通缩，加速了供需改善，但更根本的还是要看需求端的表现。只有在需求持续旺盛的行业，才可能出现更大的投资机会。从近期资金流向看，据Choice测算，多只新能源主题ETF吸引资金涌入。具体来看，四季度以来，截至11月19日，汇添富中证电池主题ETF净申购额为16.96亿元，易方达国证新能源电池ETF净申购额为15.58亿元，广发国证新能源车电池ETF净申购额也超过10亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1.5,"TSLA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502555341124272,"gmtCreate":1763722638882,"gmtModify":1763722641238,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没有独立分析能力，嚼他人残渣蔬菜，不配引领投资","listText":"没有独立分析能力，嚼他人残渣蔬菜，不配引领投资","text":"没有独立分析能力，嚼他人残渣蔬菜，不配引领投资","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502555341124272","repostId":"2585790193","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585790193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763696505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2585790193?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-21 11:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"泉果基金刚登峰：需密切关注AI应用的发展和机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585790193","media":"东方财富","summary":"泉果基金董事总经理刚登峰在友仑集团联合复旦大学国际金融学院等机构主办的“2025国际金融科技论坛”上深入剖析了AI产业链的投资机会与挑战，特别强调了AI应用层的重要性。刚登峰指出，真正杀手级的AI应用层面是目前大家争议最大的部分，因为这个才是整个产业链最后能够打通的关键环节。那个时候，如果没有更多新收入，会受到比较大的挑战，还是需要对AI应用保持密切关注。","content":"<html><body><article><p>泉果基金董事总经理刚登峰在友仑集团联合复旦大学国际金融学院等机构主办的“2025国际金融科技论坛”上深入剖析了AI产业链的投资机会与挑战，特别强调了AI应用层的重要性。刚登峰指出，真正杀手级的AI应用层面是目前大家争议最大的部分，因为这个才是整个产业链最后能够打通的关键环节。他以OpenAI为例进行分析，OpenAI今年预计的收入大概在150亿美金，与很多云服务厂商都签订了千亿美金级CapEx的租赁服务协议，但它的收入和CapEx现在看起来是不匹配的。如果在整个应用层面没有更多的收入兑现的话，整个链条是没办法顺畅的循环下去的。</p><p>泉果基金通过测算发现，如果按现在的CapEx来说，头部的像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等企业在第一年和第二年的CapEx还不足以影响太多的<span>利润表</span>。但是如果按照现在的CapEx增长曲线下去的话，再过个两三年，他们的折旧就会影响很大。那个时候，如果没有更多新收入，会受到比较大的挑战，还是需要对AI应用保持密切关注。</p><p>友仑集团是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03623\">中国金融</a>科技领域的领军型投资机构，目前已经投出了日本最大的聚合支付平台NETSTARS和非洲最大的跨境数字支付平台Onafriq。其创始人李沛伦曾作为【泉果无限对话】的重磅嘉宾，与泉果投研团队深度复盘了在非洲投资Onafriq的整个投资决策逻辑。</p><p>（文章来源：界面新闻）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>泉果基金刚登峰：需密切关注AI应用的发展和机会</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n泉果基金刚登峰：需密切关注AI应用的发展和机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-21 11:41 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511211141529511d4fb&s=b><strong>东方财富</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>泉果基金董事总经理刚登峰在友仑集团联合复旦大学国际金融学院等机构主办的“2025国际金融科技论坛”上深入剖析了AI产业链的投资机会与挑战，特别强调了AI应用层的重要性。刚登峰指出，真正杀手级的AI应用层面是目前大家争议最大的部分，因为这个才是整个产业链最后能够打通的关键环节。他以OpenAI为例进行分析，OpenAI今年预计的收入大概在150亿美金，与很多云服务厂商都签订了千亿美金级CapEx的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511211141529511d4fb&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","GOOG":"谷歌","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","LU2361044949.HKD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","GOOGL":"谷歌A","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA 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ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511211141529511d4fb&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2585790193","content_text":"泉果基金董事总经理刚登峰在友仑集团联合复旦大学国际金融学院等机构主办的“2025国际金融科技论坛”上深入剖析了AI产业链的投资机会与挑战，特别强调了AI应用层的重要性。刚登峰指出，真正杀手级的AI应用层面是目前大家争议最大的部分，因为这个才是整个产业链最后能够打通的关键环节。他以OpenAI为例进行分析，OpenAI今年预计的收入大概在150亿美金，与很多云服务厂商都签订了千亿美金级CapEx的租赁服务协议，但它的收入和CapEx现在看起来是不匹配的。如果在整个应用层面没有更多的收入兑现的话，整个链条是没办法顺畅的循环下去的。泉果基金通过测算发现，如果按现在的CapEx来说，头部的像英伟达、亚马逊、谷歌等企业在第一年和第二年的CapEx还不足以影响太多的利润表。但是如果按照现在的CapEx增长曲线下去的话，再过个两三年，他们的折旧就会影响很大。那个时候，如果没有更多新收入，会受到比较大的挑战，还是需要对AI应用保持密切关注。友仑集团是中国金融科技领域的领军型投资机构，目前已经投出了日本最大的聚合支付平台NETSTARS和非洲最大的跨境数字支付平台Onafriq。其创始人李沛伦曾作为【泉果无限对话】的重磅嘉宾，与泉果投研团队深度复盘了在非洲投资Onafriq的整个投资决策逻辑。（文章来源：界面新闻）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"GOOG":0.9,"NVD":0.6,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"AMZN":0.9,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502546486988800,"gmtCreate":1763720536617,"gmtModify":1763720539115,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"作者明显不懂企业财务，不懂企业账务处理规则流程，更不懂金融运作模式，典型老登思维偏见先入为主","listText":"作者明显不懂企业财务，不懂企业账务处理规则流程，更不懂金融运作模式，典型老登思维偏见先入为主","text":"作者明显不懂企业财务，不懂企业账务处理规则流程，更不懂金融运作模式，典型老登思维偏见先入为主","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502546486988800","repostId":"2585195463","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585195463","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"早报天天读，汇集天下事，做最好听的有声财经播报。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇APP","id":"11","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06797dbcc3b4b9e839c351ca5a14e4d"},"pubTimestamp":1763697735,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2585195463?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-21 12:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达财报后走势“诡异”，6100亿美元“AI庞氏骗局”崩盘？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585195463","media":"格隆汇APP","summary":"英伟达未结账款达334亿美元，一年内激增89%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>金融市场独立研究员佩雷拉(Shanaka Anslem Perera)发文称，昨日，一场史无前例的剧变发生。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 股价在财报发布后飙升5%，却在18小时内暴跌至负值区间。<strong>华尔街算法捕捉到了人类未能察觉的异常：账面数据存在严重矛盾。</strong></p><p>周五，英伟达夜盘股价短线“跳水”，截至发稿由涨转跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5f8ac56f4b709a46cfddf48cf18809\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><p><strong>具体发现如下：</strong></p><p><strong>英伟达披露未结账款达334亿美元，一年内激增89%。购买芯片的客户尚未付款，平均付款周期从46天延长至53天。这额外的一周意味着104亿美元可能永远无法收回。</strong>与此同时，英伟达库存积压芯片达198亿美元，三个月内增长32%。但管理层声称需求疯狂而供应受限。两者不可能同时成立。要么客户不愿购买，要么他们空手下单。现金流揭示了真相。英伟达实际产生145亿美元现金，却报告193亿美元利润。两者相差48亿美元。台积电和AMD等健康芯片企业能将95%以上利润转化为现金，英伟达仅能转化75%。这已达危机级别。</p><p>更令人发指的是：英伟达向xAI注资20亿美元，xAI却借贷125亿美元采购英伟达芯片；微软向OpenAI投入130亿美元，OpenAI承诺斥资500亿美元购买微软云服务；微软为该云平台订购价值1000亿美元的英伟达芯片；甲骨文向OpenAI提供3000亿美元云服务额度，OpenAI则为甲骨文数据中心订购英伟达芯片。同一笔资金在不同公司间循环往复，被多次计入营收。英伟达记账销售额，却无人真正付款。账单日益陈旧，库存不断堆积，现金流始终缺席。</p><p>上周AI公司CEO们已亲口承认。爱彼迎CEO称之为“氛围营收”。OpenAI每年烧掉93亿美元却仅赚37亿美元，年亏损达56亿美元。1570亿美元的估值需要3.1万亿美元的未来利润支撑，而麻省理工学院研究表明95%的人工智能项目永远无法实现这种盈利。<br/>硅谷风投教父彼得·蒂尔于11月9日抛售价值1亿美元的英伟达股票。软银集团11月11日抛售58亿美元持股。“大空头”迈克尔·伯里买入看跌期权，押注英伟达股价将在2026年3月前跌至140美元。</p><p>与人工智能投机密切相关的比特币，已从10月的12.6万美元跌至今日的89,567美元，跌幅达29%。人工智能初创企业持有价值268亿美元的比特币作为贷款抵押品。当英伟达股价再跌40%时，这些贷款将违约，迫使抛售230亿美元比特币，导致加密货币崩盘至5.2万美元。</p><p>时间线已然明朗：2026年2月，英伟达公布财报揭露逾期账款规模；2026年3月，评级机构下调信用评级；2026年4月，首次财务重述。这场耗时18个月构筑的骗局，在90天内土崩瓦解。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5f597ba02e9edfaeba010a07aa50e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1248\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达财报后走势“诡异”，6100亿美元“AI庞氏骗局”崩盘？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达财报后走势“诡异”，6100亿美元“AI庞氏骗局”崩盘？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/11\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06797dbcc3b4b9e839c351ca5a14e4d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-21 12:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>金融市场独立研究员佩雷拉(Shanaka Anslem Perera)发文称，昨日，一场史无前例的剧变发生。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 股价在财报发布后飙升5%，却在18小时内暴跌至负值区间。<strong>华尔街算法捕捉到了人类未能察觉的异常：账面数据存在严重矛盾。</strong></p><p>周五，英伟达夜盘股价短线“跳水”，截至发稿由涨转跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5f8ac56f4b709a46cfddf48cf18809\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><p><strong>具体发现如下：</strong></p><p><strong>英伟达披露未结账款达334亿美元，一年内激增89%。购买芯片的客户尚未付款，平均付款周期从46天延长至53天。这额外的一周意味着104亿美元可能永远无法收回。</strong>与此同时，英伟达库存积压芯片达198亿美元，三个月内增长32%。但管理层声称需求疯狂而供应受限。两者不可能同时成立。要么客户不愿购买，要么他们空手下单。现金流揭示了真相。英伟达实际产生145亿美元现金，却报告193亿美元利润。两者相差48亿美元。台积电和AMD等健康芯片企业能将95%以上利润转化为现金，英伟达仅能转化75%。这已达危机级别。</p><p>更令人发指的是：英伟达向xAI注资20亿美元，xAI却借贷125亿美元采购英伟达芯片；微软向OpenAI投入130亿美元，OpenAI承诺斥资500亿美元购买微软云服务；微软为该云平台订购价值1000亿美元的英伟达芯片；甲骨文向OpenAI提供3000亿美元云服务额度，OpenAI则为甲骨文数据中心订购英伟达芯片。同一笔资金在不同公司间循环往复，被多次计入营收。英伟达记账销售额，却无人真正付款。账单日益陈旧，库存不断堆积，现金流始终缺席。</p><p>上周AI公司CEO们已亲口承认。爱彼迎CEO称之为“氛围营收”。OpenAI每年烧掉93亿美元却仅赚37亿美元，年亏损达56亿美元。1570亿美元的估值需要3.1万亿美元的未来利润支撑，而麻省理工学院研究表明95%的人工智能项目永远无法实现这种盈利。<br/>硅谷风投教父彼得·蒂尔于11月9日抛售价值1亿美元的英伟达股票。软银集团11月11日抛售58亿美元持股。“大空头”迈克尔·伯里买入看跌期权，押注英伟达股价将在2026年3月前跌至140美元。</p><p>与人工智能投机密切相关的比特币，已从10月的12.6万美元跌至今日的89,567美元，跌幅达29%。人工智能初创企业持有价值268亿美元的比特币作为贷款抵押品。当英伟达股价再跌40%时，这些贷款将违约，迫使抛售230亿美元比特币，导致加密货币崩盘至5.2万美元。</p><p>时间线已然明朗：2026年2月，英伟达公布财报揭露逾期账款规模；2026年3月，评级机构下调信用评级；2026年4月，首次财务重述。这场耗时18个月构筑的骗局，在90天内土崩瓦解。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5f597ba02e9edfaeba010a07aa50e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1248\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251121120511a4b0a566&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585195463","content_text":"金融市场独立研究员佩雷拉(Shanaka Anslem Perera)发文称，昨日，一场史无前例的剧变发生。 英伟达 股价在财报发布后飙升5%，却在18小时内暴跌至负值区间。华尔街算法捕捉到了人类未能察觉的异常：账面数据存在严重矛盾。周五，英伟达夜盘股价短线“跳水”，截至发稿由涨转跌。具体发现如下：英伟达披露未结账款达334亿美元，一年内激增89%。购买芯片的客户尚未付款，平均付款周期从46天延长至53天。这额外的一周意味着104亿美元可能永远无法收回。与此同时，英伟达库存积压芯片达198亿美元，三个月内增长32%。但管理层声称需求疯狂而供应受限。两者不可能同时成立。要么客户不愿购买，要么他们空手下单。现金流揭示了真相。英伟达实际产生145亿美元现金，却报告193亿美元利润。两者相差48亿美元。台积电和AMD等健康芯片企业能将95%以上利润转化为现金，英伟达仅能转化75%。这已达危机级别。更令人发指的是：英伟达向xAI注资20亿美元，xAI却借贷125亿美元采购英伟达芯片；微软向OpenAI投入130亿美元，OpenAI承诺斥资500亿美元购买微软云服务；微软为该云平台订购价值1000亿美元的英伟达芯片；甲骨文向OpenAI提供3000亿美元云服务额度，OpenAI则为甲骨文数据中心订购英伟达芯片。同一笔资金在不同公司间循环往复，被多次计入营收。英伟达记账销售额，却无人真正付款。账单日益陈旧，库存不断堆积，现金流始终缺席。上周AI公司CEO们已亲口承认。爱彼迎CEO称之为“氛围营收”。OpenAI每年烧掉93亿美元却仅赚37亿美元，年亏损达56亿美元。1570亿美元的估值需要3.1万亿美元的未来利润支撑，而麻省理工学院研究表明95%的人工智能项目永远无法实现这种盈利。硅谷风投教父彼得·蒂尔于11月9日抛售价值1亿美元的英伟达股票。软银集团11月11日抛售58亿美元持股。“大空头”迈克尔·伯里买入看跌期权，押注英伟达股价将在2026年3月前跌至140美元。与人工智能投机密切相关的比特币，已从10月的12.6万美元跌至今日的89,567美元，跌幅达29%。人工智能初创企业持有价值268亿美元的比特币作为贷款抵押品。当英伟达股价再跌40%时，这些贷款将违约，迫使抛售230亿美元比特币，导致加密货币崩盘至5.2万美元。时间线已然明朗：2026年2月，英伟达公布财报揭露逾期账款规模；2026年3月，评级机构下调信用评级；2026年4月，首次财务重述。这场耗时18个月构筑的骗局，在90天内土崩瓦解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}