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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-11-02
Moon
Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading<blockquote>医药股早盘攀升</blockquote>
Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading.Novavax,BioNTech SE,Lilly,Pfizer,Moderna,AstraZenec
Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading<blockquote>医药股早盘攀升</blockquote>
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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-10-15
Yess
fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV 股价早盘交易中又飙升 3%</blockquote>
fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading as as fuboTV, AT&T SportsNet joined hands; Street
fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV 股价早盘交易中又飙升 3%</blockquote>
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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-10-11
G8
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-09-28
Yes
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-09-13
G8
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-09-13
Wow
Salesforce: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable Price<blockquote>Salesforce：一家价格合理的优秀公司</blockquote>
Summary The flexible approach at Salesforce is a competitive advantage as they help companies shift
Salesforce: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable Price<blockquote>Salesforce：一家价格合理的优秀公司</blockquote>
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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-09-10
Ooo
小调查：iPhone13秘密泄露，你想换新机吗？
@胖虎哒哒：
随着9月15日的苹果特别活动日一天天的临近，近期网上也涌现出诸多关于iPhone 13的信息。除了有新机的配置、价格爆料之外，最近还有媒体对iPhone用户是否有升级iPhone 13的愿意做了一期调查。据悉，该调查是由Savings开展，收集1500名iPhone用户的意向。 根据调查结果显示：其中仅有10%的用户计划入手iPhone 13，有着64%的用户没有升级计划，此外，还有26%的用户表示还没做好决定。 对于这一调查结果，个人倒不会感到太大的意外。毕竟就目前的爆料的信息来看，iPhone 13相较于上一代并不会太多的提升，很可能只是将后置模组中的镜头改变了摆放位置，刘海屏缩小一些，并上全新的A15芯片。至于大家尤为关心的120Hz高刷屏和大电池，大概率也只会在iPhone 13 Pro/ Pro Max身上出现。 此外，据乌克兰人称，iPhone 13系列将提供新的粉红色、黑色和青铜色，存储选项将与iPhone 12相同，除了 5.4 英寸和 6.1 英寸标准型号没有 256GB 存储选项之外被91mobiles发现的电子商务网站“KTC”声称已经透露了即将推出的设备的配置选项。 MacRumors 对黑色、青铜色和粉红色 iPhone 13 型号的渲染。在iPhone 13迷你和iPhone 13显然将继续在六个颜色可供选择：黑色，蓝色，紫色，粉色，白色，和PRODUCT（RED）。这意味着粉红色将取代 iPhone 12 阵容中的绿色。 另一方面，据称iPhone 13 Pro和iPhone 13 Pro Max将继续提供四种颜色选择：黑色、银色、金色和青铜色。这意味着黑色将取代iPhone 12 Pro系列中的石墨，而青铜色将取代太平洋蓝。 再加上目前iPhone 12已经支持了5G网络，所以对于iPhone 12用户而言，新机确实谈不上有太大的吸引力。下面
小调查：iPhone13秘密泄露，你想换新机吗？
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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-08-26
Gh
Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>
Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling
Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>
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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-08-25
Noo
Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote>
Summary Palantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance. The ex
Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote>
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Kimfatt
Kimfatt
·
2021-08-05
Not good
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading<blockquote>医药股早盘攀升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-02 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading.Novavax,BioNTech SE,Lilly,Pfizer,Moderna,AstraZeneca,Johnson & Johnson rose between 1% and 5%.</p><p><blockquote>医药股早盘上涨。Novavax、BioNTech SE、礼来、辉瑞、Moderna、阿斯利康、强生涨幅在1%至5%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9498ce51e3f565709fbc6d02ed61811a\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"658\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","PFE":"辉瑞","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106703730","content_text":"Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading.Novavax,BioNTech SE,Lilly,Pfizer,Moderna,AstraZeneca,Johnson & Johnson rose between 1% and 5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"NVAX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824665689,"gmtCreate":1634308852777,"gmtModify":1634308852925,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569323320302810","authorIdStr":"3569323320302810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yess","listText":"Yess","text":"Yess","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824665689","repostId":"1125791144","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125791144","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634308708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125791144?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV 股价早盘交易中又飙升 3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125791144","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading as as fuboTV, AT&T SportsNet joined hands; Street","content":"<p>fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading as as fuboTV, AT&T SportsNet joined hands; Street said Buy.</p><p><blockquote>fuboTV 和 AT&T SportsNet 联手，fuboTV 股价在早盘交易中又飙升 3%；街说买。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/848fb4ecec51eb5279ad3999ad090d32\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sports focused live TV streaming platform fuboTV Inc.(<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with AT&T SportsNet to stream AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain on fuboTV in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>专注于体育的直播电视流媒体平台 fuboTV Inc.（<b>伏波</b>) 近日宣布，已与 AT&T SportsNet 签订分销协议，未来几天将在 fuboTV 上播放 AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain。</blockquote></p><p> The deal will enable fuboTV access to the regional coverage of Utah Jazz, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Rockies, including other ancillary programming and behind-the-scenes content. Initially, the regional sports network will launch on fuboTV in Nevada, Utah, and the surrounding areas.</p><p><blockquote>该交易将使fuboTV能够访问犹他爵士队、拉斯维加斯黄金骑士队和科罗拉多落基山脉的地区报道，包括其他辅助节目和幕后内容。最初，区域体育网将在内华达州、犹他州及周边地区的fuboTV上推出。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $60, which implies upside potential of 135.6% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近，Needham 分析师 Laura Martin 重申了该股的买入评级，目标价为 60 美元，这意味着该股较当前水平有 135.6% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV 股价早盘交易中又飙升 3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nfuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading<blockquote>fuboTV 股价早盘交易中又飙升 3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-15 22:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading as as fuboTV, AT&T SportsNet joined hands; Street said Buy.</p><p><blockquote>fuboTV 和 AT&T SportsNet 联手，fuboTV 股价在早盘交易中又飙升 3%；街说买。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/848fb4ecec51eb5279ad3999ad090d32\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sports focused live TV streaming platform fuboTV Inc.(<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with AT&T SportsNet to stream AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain on fuboTV in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>专注于体育的直播电视流媒体平台 fuboTV Inc.（<b>伏波</b>) 近日宣布，已与 AT&T SportsNet 签订分销协议，未来几天将在 fuboTV 上播放 AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain。</blockquote></p><p> The deal will enable fuboTV access to the regional coverage of Utah Jazz, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Rockies, including other ancillary programming and behind-the-scenes content. Initially, the regional sports network will launch on fuboTV in Nevada, Utah, and the surrounding areas.</p><p><blockquote>该交易将使fuboTV能够访问犹他爵士队、拉斯维加斯黄金骑士队和科罗拉多落基山脉的地区报道，包括其他辅助节目和幕后内容。最初，区域体育网将在内华达州、犹他州及周边地区的fuboTV上推出。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $60, which implies upside potential of 135.6% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近，Needham 分析师 Laura Martin 重申了该股的买入评级，目标价为 60 美元，这意味着该股较当前水平有 135.6% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FUBO":"fuboTV Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125791144","content_text":"fuboTV shares surged another 3% in morning trading as as fuboTV, AT&T SportsNet joined hands; Street said Buy.\n\nSports focused live TV streaming platform fuboTV Inc.(FUBO) recently announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with AT&T SportsNet to stream AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain on fuboTV in the coming days.\nThe deal will enable fuboTV access to the regional coverage of Utah Jazz, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Rockies, including other ancillary programming and behind-the-scenes content. Initially, the regional sports network will launch on fuboTV in Nevada, Utah, and the surrounding areas.\nRecently, Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $60, which implies upside potential of 135.6% from current levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FUBO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826020846,"gmtCreate":1633959959557,"gmtModify":1634004681618,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569323320302810","authorIdStr":"3569323320302810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"G8","listText":"G8","text":"G8","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826020846","repostId":"2174901386","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862169545,"gmtCreate":1632843986631,"gmtModify":1632843986684,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569323320302810","authorIdStr":"3569323320302810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862169545","repostId":"1125098387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886054567,"gmtCreate":1631540807559,"gmtModify":1631890134463,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569323320302810","authorIdStr":"3569323320302810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"G8","listText":"G8","text":"G8","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886054567","repostId":"2167898295","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886054800,"gmtCreate":1631540790200,"gmtModify":1631890134476,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569323320302810","authorIdStr":"3569323320302810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886054800","repostId":"1164835747","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164835747","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631537883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164835747?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-13 20:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Salesforce: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable Price<blockquote>Salesforce：一家价格合理的优秀公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164835747","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe flexible approach at Salesforce is a competitive advantage as they help companies shift","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The flexible approach at Salesforce is a competitive advantage as they help companies shift to the cloud.</li> <li>The AppExchange ecosystem increases engagement and lowers attrition.</li> <li>Capex as a percentage of revenue fell from 7.3% in fiscal ‘14 to 3.3% in fiscal ‘21.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/665b6616888a5d8d7ba20ad02b7ee091\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Stephen Lam/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Salesforce的灵活方法是一种竞争优势，因为它们可以帮助公司向云迁移。</li><li>AppExchange生态系统提高了参与度，降低了流失。</li><li>资本支出占收入的百分比从14财年的7.3%下降到21财年的3.3%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> My thesis is that Salesforce (CRM) is a wonderful company at a reasonable price. We are still in the early days as software continues shifting to the cloud. Much of the profitability for Salesforce is obfuscated by growth investments. In the 4Q20 call, it was revealed that returns for shareholders reached 4,000% since going public in 2004.</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是Salesforce（CRM）是一家价格合理的优秀公司。随着软件继续向云迁移，我们仍处于早期阶段。Salesforce 的大部分盈利能力都被增长投资所掩盖。2020年第四季度看涨期权显示，自2004年上市以来，股东回报率达到4000%。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Marc Benioff has said that the way to understand the future is to look at the past. Written in 2009,<i>Behind the Cloud</i>is an excellent resource that helps explain how Salesforce laid their foundation and it is cited throughout this article.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫曾表示，了解未来的方法是回顾过去。写于2009年，<i>云背后</i>是一个很好的资源，有助于解释Salesforce是如何奠定基础的，本文通篇都引用了它。</blockquote></p><p> Seeing as the fiscal year goes through January, I think of the fiscal year as being equal to the calendar year plus one for the first three quarters. The fourth quarter is an exception as it is the only quarter that closes within the calendar year. In other words, calendar '21 is fiscal '22 for the first three quarters.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于财政年度将持续到一月份，我认为财政年度等于日历年加上前三个季度的一。第四季度是个例外，因为它是日历年内唯一结束的季度。换句话说，21 财年的前三个季度是 22 财年。</blockquote></p><p> Flexibility</p><p><blockquote>灵活性</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce is flexible, both with the needs of their customers and their own needs. From the beginning, they recognized that it was time to adapt to a new world where buying software would be like buying products on Amazon without the need for upgrades and updates. Meanwhile rigid incumbents like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) continued to develop software as if the internet didn't exist. Salesforce embraces APIs such that companies can adopt a wide array of technology options. They provide the right optionality for companies as the world moves to subscriptions and direct-to-consumer (\"D2C\") relationships. Salesforce is limber when it comes to looking at their own requirements such as their infrastructure needs.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce非常灵活，既能满足客户的需求，也能满足他们自己的需求。从一开始，他们就认识到是时候适应一个新世界了，在这个新世界里，购买软件就像在亚马逊上购买产品一样，不需要升级和更新。与此同时，甲骨文（ORCL）和SAP（SAP）等老牌公司继续开发软件，就好像互联网不存在一样。Salesforce采用API，以便公司可以采用广泛的技术选项。随着世界转向订阅和直接面向消费者（“D2C”）关系，它们为公司提供了正确的选择。Salesforce在考虑他们自己的需求（如基础设施需求）时非常灵活。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce makes it easy for companies to adopt the latest technology options. The importance of using APIs for integration was a giant step in their evolution per <i>Behind the Cloud</i>:</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce使公司能够轻松采用最新的技术选项。使用API进行集成的重要性是它们发展的一大步<i>云背后</i>:</blockquote></p><p> We made a significant leap in the technology when we offered integration capabilities by providing an application programming interface (\"API\"), or a way for salesforce.com to communicate with other programs. This transformed our product and technology so that the data in salesforce.com were not isolated in Web silos, but could interact with other data that were behind the firewall or on other Web sites. The API, for example, allowed salesforce.com to interface with Google Maps, so salespeople could instantly access a map of where all their customers were located. [ <i>Behind the Cloud</i>: Location: 1,881] Answering a question at the September 2017 Deutsche Bank Conference, Product EVP Mike Rosenbaum notes that Tesla (TSLA) has a continual relationship with customers by providing software updates. He notes that this is the type of thinking companies need to embrace and that Salesforce helps companies be malleable such that they can maintain direct relationships with customers:</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过提供应用程序编程接口（“API”）或salesforce.com与其他程序通信的方式来提供集成功能时，我们在技术上取得了重大飞跃。这改变了我们的产品和技术，使salesforce.com中的数据不会被隔离在Web孤岛中，而是可以与防火墙后面或其他网站上的其他数据进行交互。例如，该 API 允许 salesforce.com 与 Google Maps 接口，因此销售人员可以立即访问所有客户的位置地图。[<i>云背后</i>: 位置：1,881] 产品执行副总裁 Mike Rosenbaum 在 2017 年 9 月德意志银行会议上回答问题时指出，特斯拉 (TSLA) 通过提供软件更新与客户保持着持续的关系。他指出，这是公司需要接受的思维类型，Salesforce 帮助公司具有可塑性，以便他们可以与客户保持直接关系：</blockquote></p><p> You take for example a company like Dollar Shave Club where instead of selling razors, I'm going to sell a subscription model so that every period of time, you get some razors delivered to you. That's the idea, I think, is where you start to - I think, every company in the world, whether it's brand manufacturing or anyone, needs to start to think about their business model a little bit more like a subscription service. And I think that is the very, very powerful idea that is made possible by CRM systems like Salesforce. We make that -- we make the technology barrier to implementing a model like that go away, to a large degree. Years ago Salesforce started out with their own data centers in California, Virginia and Singapore but they kept an open mind and reevaluated infrastructure decisions as time went by. Rather than opening their own data centers in new markets like Canada and Australia, they opted to go with Amazon's (AMZN) AWS. In addition to the close relationship with AWS, a partnership with Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) was discussed at the November 2017 Investor Day. Having 3 parts to it, the Google partnership includes Google Analytics, G Suite and some infrastructure on Google Cloud Platform (\"GCP\").</p><p><blockquote>以Dollar Shave Club这样的公司为例，我不卖剃须刀，而是卖订阅模式，这样每隔一段时间，你就会收到一些剃须刀。我认为，这就是你开始的想法——我认为，世界上的每家公司，无论是品牌制造还是任何人，都需要开始考虑他们的商业模式，更像订阅服务。我认为这是像Salesforce这样的CRM系统实现的非常非常强大的想法。我们做到了这一点——我们在很大程度上消除了实施这样一个模型的技术壁垒。几年前，Salesforce开始在加利福尼亚州、弗吉尼亚州和新加坡建立自己的数据中心，但他们保持开放的心态，并随着时间的推移重新评估基础设施决策。他们没有在加拿大和澳大利亚等新市场开设自己的数据中心，而是选择了亚马逊（AMZN）的AWS。除了与 AWS 的密切关系外，2017 年 11 月投资者日还讨论了与谷歌 (GOOG)（GOOGL）的合作伙伴关系。谷歌合作伙伴关系由三个部分组成，包括谷歌分析、G套件和谷歌云平台（“GCP”）上的一些基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AppExchange Ecosystem</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AppExchange生态系统</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AppExchange is the world's leading enterprise cloud ecosystem with over 3,000 apps and components. Per the faq, they have 117,000 customer reviews and 9 million installs. At the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation, President & COO Bret Taylor said AppExchange is one of the main competitive advantages for Salesforce, noting the million-plus weekly active developers on Slack. Back in 2005 CEO Benioff pointed out that AppExchange was groundbreaking.<i>Behind the Cloud</i>talks about the significance of becoming a platform noting that traditional software companies like Siebel and SAP didn't make the right types of capital investments to empower their partners:</p><p><blockquote>AppExchange是全球领先的企业云生态系统，拥有超过3,000个应用程序和组件。根据常见问题，他们有117,000条客户评论和900万次安装。在2020年12月的投资者日演示中，总裁兼首席运营官Bret Taylor表示，AppExchange是Salesforce的主要竞争优势之一，并指出Slack上每周活跃的开发人员超过100万。早在2005年，首席执行官贝尼奥夫就指出，AppExchange是开创性的。<i>云背后</i>谈论成为平台的重要性，指出 Siebel 和 SAP 等传统软件公司没有进行正确类型的资本投资来增强其合作伙伴的能力：</blockquote></p><p> One of the most pivotal decisions we made as a company was to make our code available to let other companies build their own complementary online services. This idea to become a platform, or an operating system for the Internet (similar to how Windows is an operating system for PCs), offered a way to allow everyone to create applications online and gave us an opportunity to attract and <b>retain more customers</b>. [ <i>Behind the Cloud</i>: Location: 1,895] Veeva (VEEV) helps life science companies shift to the cloud and their payments to Salesforce are part of their cost of revenues line on the income statement. They were an early Independent Software Vendor (\"ISV\") and they have grown over the years such that their market cap is now close to $50 billion. Per their filings, Veeva has a value-added reseller agreement with Salesforce for a cumulative $500 million from March 2014 to September 2025 which they will fulfill easily as there is only $57 million remaining.</p><p><blockquote>作为一家公司，我们做出的最关键的决定之一是让我们的代码可用，让其他公司构建他们自己的补充在线服务。这种成为互联网平台或操作系统的想法（类似于Windows是PC的操作系统），提供了一种允许每个人在线创建应用程序的方法，并给了我们一个吸引和吸引用户的机会。<b>留住更多客户</b>.[<i>云背后</i>: 位置：1,895] Veeva (VEEV) 帮助生命科学公司向云迁移，他们向 Salesforce 付款是损益表上收入成本项目的一部分。他们是一家早期的独立软件供应商（“ISV”），多年来他们一直在发展，因此他们的市值现在接近500亿美元。根据他们的文件，Veeva与Salesforce签订了一份增值经销商协议，从2014年3月到2025年9月，累计价值5亿美元，他们将轻松履行该协议，因为只剩下5700万美元。</blockquote></p><p> It was simple to see the potential for AWS years ago when Netflix (NFLX) announced they were using them for their media content. The same thing is happening in banking as old thought processes are shifting and resources are being allocated to AppExchange banking leader nCino (NCNO). At a June 2018 Evercore ISI event, nCino Executive Director of Global Market Strategy Jim Baxley talked about the way banks are moving to the cloud seeing as they don't want to build their own data centers anymore and they don't want to have armies of developers.</p><p><blockquote>几年前，当网飞（NFLX）宣布他们将使用AWS制作媒体内容时，很容易看到AWS的潜力。同样的事情也在银行业发生，因为旧的思维过程正在转变，资源分配给 AppExchange 银行业领导者 nCino (NCNO)。在 2018 年 6 月的 Evercore ISI 活动中，nCino 全球市场战略执行董事 Jim Baxley 谈到了银行向云迁移的方式，因为他们不再想构建自己的数据中心，也不想拥有大批开发人员。</blockquote></p><p> DocuSign(NASDAQ:DOCU) COO Scott Olrich spoke about the relationship with Salesforce at DocuSign's March 2021 Virtual Financial Analyst Day. DocuSign Gen is a lightweight tool that allows reps to generate a contract from inside of Salesforce. The Salesforce sales team helps sell these products and there is a specialized version for quotes and billing.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign（纳斯达克股票代码：DOCU）首席运营官 Scott Olrich 在 DocuSign 2021 年 3 月虚拟金融分析师日上谈到了与 Salesforce 的关系。DocuSign Gen是一个轻量级工具，允许销售代表从Salesforce内部生成合同。Salesforce销售团队帮助销售这些产品，并且有一个专门的版本用于报价和计费。</blockquote></p><p> The November 2017 Investor Day Presentation shows ISV with a revenue run rate of $310 million such that it was 17% of the Platform & Other Revenue at that time:</p><p><blockquote>2017 年 11 月投资者日演示显示，ISV 的收入运行率为 3.1 亿美元，占当时平台和其他收入的 17%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382b79247454c56e777664f619f500b8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: November 2017 Investor Day Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2017年11月投资者日演讲</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I value the AppExchange platform more for the way that it lowers attrition through increased innovation, utility and engagement than for the revenue it generates directly.</p><p><blockquote>我更看重AppExchange平台，因为它通过增加创新、实用性和参与度来降低流失，而不是它直接产生的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Successful Acquisitions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成功收购</b></blockquote></p><p> Having a flexible and collaborative mindset, Salesforce has a history of giving subsidiaries the right environment to continue with innovation and revenue growth after being acquired. Other software giants have a more rigid mindset such that their acquisitions don't work out the right way. At the October 2006 Dreamforce Investor Summit, Worldwide Sales and Distribution President Jim Steele talked about the fact that Siebel's innovation stagnated after being acquired by Oracle.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce 拥有灵活和协作的思维方式，历来为子公司提供合适的环境，以便在被收购后继续创新和收入增长。其他软件巨头的心态更加僵化，因此他们的收购并没有以正确的方式进行。在2006年10月的Dreamforce投资者峰会上，全球销售和分销总裁Jim Steele谈到了Siebel被甲骨文收购后创新停滞不前的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The acquisitions of ExactTarget, ClickSoftware and Vlocity were very important for Salesforce despite the fact that there have been others at higher price tags. ExactTarget was acquired in 2013 to help Salesforce become number one in marketing. An August 2019 diginomica writeup notes that much of Salesforce's Field Service Lightning software was licensed and originally written by ClickSoftware developers. Bringing ClickSoftware in-house bolstered the Service and Platform offerings. Vlocity was built on the Salesforce platform and their acquisition was finalized in June 2020. They strengthen Salesforce's Service offering. At the September 2020 RBC Tour, Salesforce Industries Division CEO David Schmaier talked about Vlocity's approach noting that they serve regulated industries including communications, insurance, health, government, energy and media.</p><p><blockquote>收购 ExactTarget、ClickSoftware 和 Vlocity 对 Salesforce 来说非常重要，尽管事实上还有其他价格更高的公司。ExactTarget于2013年被收购，以帮助Salesforce成为营销领域的第一名。2019年8月的一篇diginomica文章指出，Salesforce的大部分现场服务闪电软件都是由ClickSoftware开发人员许可和最初编写的。将ClickSoftware引入内部增强了服务和平台产品。Vlocity建立在Salesforce平台上，他们的收购于2020年6月完成。他们加强了Salesforce的服务产品。在 2020 年 9 月的 RBC 巡演中，Salesforce Industries 部门首席执行官 David Schmaier 谈到了 Vlocity 的方法，指出他们服务于通信、保险、健康、政府、能源和媒体等受监管行业。</blockquote></p><p> A June 2021 article from Fortune mentions the biggest acquisitions as follows:</p><p><blockquote>《财富》杂志 2021 年 6 月的一篇文章提到了最大的收购如下：</blockquote></p><p> Demandware: Price: $2.8 billion - June 2016</p><p><blockquote>Demandware：价格：28 亿美元 - 2016 年 6 月</blockquote></p><p> Mulesoft: Price: $6.5 billion - March 2018</p><p><blockquote>Mulesoft：价格：65 亿美元 - 2018 年 3 月</blockquote></p><p> Tableau: Price: $15.7 billion - June 2019</p><p><blockquote>表：价格：157 亿美元 - 2019 年 6 月</blockquote></p><p> Slack: Price: $27.7 billion - December 2020 (deal announced)</p><p><blockquote>Slack：价格：277 亿美元 - 2020 年 12 月（交易宣布）</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Demandware is the key part of Salesforce's Commerce offering while Tableau is essential for the Analytics offering and MuleSoft powers the Integration offering. The importance of Tableau and MuleSoft was made evident in the 1Q22 cal lwhen it was revealed that Tableau was in 8 of the top 10 new deals and MuleSoft was in 5 of the 10.</p><p><blockquote>Demandware是Salesforce商务产品的关键部分，而Tableau对于分析产品至关重要，MuleSoft为集成产品提供支持。Tableau和MuleSoft的重要性在2022年第一季度加州L显而易见，当时据透露，Tableau在前10名新交易中占8名，MuleSoft在前10名中占5名。</blockquote></p><p> At the June 2019 Tableau call, CEO Benioff talks about the fact that traditional enterprise software companies are unaccommodating when it comes to new technology. The reputation of flexibility at Salesforce is a big factor when it comes to acquisitions:</p><p><blockquote>在2019年6月的Tableau看涨期权上，首席执行官贝尼奥夫谈到了传统企业软件公司在新技术方面不适应的事实。Salesforce 的灵活性声誉是收购的一个重要因素：</blockquote></p><p> There is a question of, well, gee, MuleSoft really is all about connecting to an ecosystem of data and connects to lots of different data sources like SAP, Microsoft and Amazon and Google and Workday and ServiceNow and so many companies, and how do you plan to address that? And it was kind of a shock to me actually because when I have the question, it was kind of like somehow people think that we wouldn't connect to those companies or wouldn't support all those companies or that we would do something to cut them off. The November 2019 Investor Day Presentation notes the success of revenue growth with 3 prominent acquisitions. Acquired in July 2013 with annual revenue of $286 million, ExactTarget grew its revenue to $1,450 million in 6 years. Demandware was purchased in July 2016 and they had revenue of $227 million at the time which grew to $590 million in 3 years. MuleSoft was acquired in May 2018 when they had revenue of $284 million and this grew to $665 million in a short time.</p><p><blockquote>有一个问题，嗯，哎呀，MuleSoft真的是关于连接到一个数据生态系统，并连接到许多不同的数据源，如SAP、微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Workday和ServiceNow以及许多其他公司，你打算如何解决这个问题？实际上，这对我来说有点震惊，因为当我提出这个问题时，人们似乎认为我们不会与这些公司建立联系，或者不会支持所有这些公司，或者我们会采取一些措施来切断它们。2019 年 11 月投资者日演示文稿指出，通过 3 项重要收购实现了收入增长。ExactTarget 于 2013 年 7 月被收购，年收入为 2.86 亿美元，6 年内收入增长至 14.5 亿美元。Demandware于2016年7月被收购，当时他们的收入为2.27亿美元，在3年内增长到5.9亿美元。MuleSoft于2018年5月被收购，当时他们的收入为2.84亿美元，并在短时间内增长到6.65亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Disrupting Incumbents</b></p><p><blockquote><b>颠覆现任者</b></blockquote></p><p> The CRM market was fragmented before Salesforce entered the picture. Small companies often used ACT, medium sized companies used Microsoft (MSFT) and large companies went with Siebel, SAP or Peoplesoft.<i>Behind the Cloud</i>reveals that small, medium and large businesses have heterogeneous preferences and the dogma at the time was that they couldn't all be served by a single company:</p><p><blockquote>在Salesforce进入市场之前，CRM市场是分散的。小公司经常使用ACT，中型公司使用微软（MSFT），大公司使用Siebel、SAP或Peoplesoft。<i>云背后</i>揭示了小型、中型和大型企业有不同的偏好，当时的教条是它们不可能都由一家公司提供服务：</blockquote></p><p> When we started salesforce.com, companies sold separate software systems to small, medium, and large companies. We wanted to change that and provide everyone with the same affordable and effective service. For as long as I can remember, people told us we couldn't serve all markets - they told us that it could not be done. [ <i>Behind the Cloud</i>: Location: 1,643] Salesforce became a democratizing tool by using the internet to provide the same services to small companies that were only available to large enterprises in the past. Over time they began serving more of the large companies and this disrupted incumbents like Oracle and SAP. The September 2015 Investor Day Presentation shows that SAP had 14.3% CRM market share in FY11 followed by Oracle at 12.6% and Salesforce at 10.6%. It reveals that Salesforce passed both companies within a year or two of FY11 and had a comfortable lead by FY15. The December 2020 Investor Day Presentation shows Salesforce up to 19.8% CRM market share by 2020H1, well ahead of Oracle at just 5.3% and SAP at a mere 4.8%.</p><p><blockquote>当我们创办salesforce.com时，公司向小型、中型和大型企业出售单独的软件系统。我们想改变这种状况，为每个人提供同样实惠有效的服务。从我记事起，人们就告诉我们，我们不可能服务于所有市场——他们告诉我们，这是不可能的。 [<i>云背后</i>: Location: 1,643] Salesforce 成为一个民主化的工具，它利用互联网为小公司提供过去只有大型企业才能提供的相同服务。随着时间的推移，他们开始为更多的大公司提供服务，这扰乱了甲骨文和SAP等现有公司。2015年9月的投资者日演示显示，SAP在2011财年拥有14.3%的CRM市场份额，其次是甲骨文（12.6%）和Salesforce（10.6%）。报告显示，Salesforce 在 2011 财年的一两年内超过了这两家公司，并在 2015 财年轻松领先。2020年12月的投资者日演示显示，到2020年上半年，Salesforce的CRM市场份额将达到19.8%，远远领先于甲骨文的5.3%和SAP的4.8%。</blockquote></p><p> At the September 2006 Citigroup Global Technology Conference, CEO Benioff talks about SAP's obstinance:</p><p><blockquote>在 2006 年 9 月举行的花旗集团全球技术大会上，首席执行官贝尼奥夫谈到了 SAP 的固执：</blockquote></p><p> But SAP has not changed. They are basically just selling the same stuff that they had 10 years ago -- single-tenant architecture, license fees -- same business model, same technology model, running their business the same way. They talk about on-demand -- all on-demand to them is moving their database from one datacenter to another datacenter. It is not multitenancy. They don't even believe in multitenancy. They say they don't believe in multitenancy. Unlike incumbents who rely on maintenance contracts, Salesforce wanted to do away with packaged software and make things as easy as buying products on Amazon. This is well explained in<i>Behind the Cloud</i>:</p><p><blockquote>但SAP并没有改变。他们基本上只是销售10年前相同的东西——单租户架构、许可费——相同的商业模式、相同的技术模式、相同的业务运营方式。他们谈论按需——对他们来说，所有按需都是将数据库从一个数据中心移动到另一个数据中心。这不是多租户。他们甚至不相信多租户。他们说他们不相信多租户。与依赖维护合同的现有企业不同，Salesforce 希望取消打包软件，让事情像在亚马逊上购买产品一样简单。这在中解释得很好<i>云背后</i>:</blockquote></p><p> We wanted to take advantage of a new platform - the Internet - and deliver business applications cheaply through a Web site that was as easy to use as Amazon.com. We had to think out of the box. Literally, no more packaged software. And figuratively, as no one was then selling subscriptions for business applications and delivering them over the Web. [ <i>Behind the Cloud</i>: Location: 3,702] CEO Benioff discusses inflexible thinking in the 2Q16callsaying that Oracle and SAP still sell old technology similar to the way that IBM still sells mainframes:</p><p><blockquote>我们想利用一个新平台——互联网——通过一个像亚马逊一样易于使用的网站以低成本交付商业应用程序。我们不得不跳出框框思考。从字面上看，不再有打包软件。形象地说，当时没有人出售业务应用程序的订阅并通过网络交付。[<i>云背后</i>: 位置：3,702] 首席执行官贝尼奥夫在 2016 年第二季度电话会议中讨论了僵化的思维，称甲骨文和 SAP 仍在销售旧技术，类似于 IBM 仍在销售大型机：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And that's what you see with companies like Oracle and SAP. These are old technology bases that are meandering along like mainframes. And I think that is reflected exactly as you said, in their license revenue growth which has been poor. And in <b>their movement to the cloud has been stunted because they don't want to shift those customers into new models</b>, exactly why IBM lost the PC business because they were too afraid to let go of the mainframe. It's the past replaying itself, but instead of IBM you've got Oracle and SAP basically running the same playbook. President & Chief Product Officer David Schmaier cites The Innovator's Dilemma at the September 2020 RBC Tour saying Salesforce is here to disrupt on-premise competitors:</p><p><blockquote>这就是你在甲骨文和SAP等公司看到的情况。这些都是像大型机一样蜿蜒前行的旧技术基础。我认为这正如你所说，反映在他们的许可收入增长中，而许可收入增长一直很差。和在<b>他们向云的迁移受到阻碍，因为他们不想将这些客户转移到新的模式中</b>这就是为什么IBM失去了PC业务，因为他们太害怕放弃大型机。这是过去的重演，但Oracle和SAP基本上运行相同的剧本，而不是IBM。总裁兼首席产品官 David Schmaier 在 2020 年 9 月 RBC 巡演中引用了创新者的困境，称 Salesforce 的目的是颠覆内部竞争对手：</blockquote></p><p> And the very simple way to sell against those vendors is it's faster to deploy, it's easier to use. And oh, by the way, if you look at the total cost of ownership, it actually costs less money, too. So even I can sell that. Let me think about that again. It's faster, it's easier and it costs less money. And it's constantly refreshed in the cloud. And so it's just way better than that old on-premise world. And so we like to find <b>markets where we're disrupting legacy competitors is kind of the - I think that's the perfect storm</b>. It doesn't mean we wouldn't go into a space where there is another cloud competitor, but it's easier and faster if that's not the case. <b>Declining Attrition</b></p><p><blockquote>与这些供应商竞争的非常简单的方法是部署更快，更容易使用。哦，顺便说一句，如果你看看总拥有成本，它实际上也花了更少的钱。所以连我都能卖。让我再考虑一下。它更快，更容易，而且花费更少的钱。它在云端不断刷新。因此，它比旧的内部世界要好得多。所以我们想找到<b>我们正在颠覆传统竞争对手的市场有点像 - 我认为这是完美的风暴</b>这并不意味着我们不会进入另一个云竞争对手的领域，但如果不是这样，那就更容易、更快了。<b>减损</b></blockquote></p><p> The November 2019 Investor Day Presentation shows that attrition has declined significantly from about 21% in FY10 to less than 10% in FY20:</p><p><blockquote>2019 年 11 月投资者日演示显示，流失率已从 2010 财年的约 21% 大幅下降至 2020 财年的不到 10%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019cb7b9807c53883ad0012c39d0c7c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: November 2019 Investor Day Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2019年11月投资者日演讲</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the declining attrition is that Salesforce is the first software company to provide CRM and other offerings in the cloud at scale. Another key factor is the AppExchange where increased innovation, utility and overall engagement lead to lower attrition. Acquisitions have led to today's multi-cloud environment which is also good for increasing engagement and lowering attrition.</p><p><blockquote>减员下降的原因之一是Salesforce是第一家在云中大规模提供CRM和其他产品的软件公司。另一个关键因素是 AppExchange，其中创新、实用性和整体参与度的增加可以降低流失。收购带来了当今的多云环境，这也有利于提高参与度和降低流失。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Declining attrition has made it much easier for Salesforce to increase revenue. Looking at the last 7 years, subscription and support revenue growth has been prodigious, going from about $5 billion in FY15 all the way up to around $20 billion by FY21. Note that the Platform and Other offering includes the Integration and Analytics offerings. Professional services and other revenue is not shown here and it was up to $1.3 billion by 2021:</p><p><blockquote>减员使得 Salesforce 更容易增加收入。回顾过去 7 年，订阅和支持收入增长惊人，从 2015 财年的约 50 亿美元一直增长到 2021 财年的约 200 亿美元。请注意，平台和其他产品包括集成和分析产品。专业服务和其他收入未显示在此处，到 2021 年将达到 13 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdadcd43083d7826f9a1abaf444ebfc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: author's spreadsheet from 10-K filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：10-K 文件中的作者电子表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue growth should continue as the total addressable market (\"TAM\") expands to $175 billion by fiscal '25 per the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation. Below we see key logos tied to offerings. Analytics has Tableau, Integration has MuleSoft, and Platform has Lightning from a slide in. Also, the Marketing offering favors the ExactTarget color scheme and Commerce offering favors the Demandware color scheme:</p><p><blockquote>根据 2020 年 12 月投资者日报告，到 25 财年，总潜在市场 (“TAM”) 将扩大到 1,750 亿美元，收入增长应该会继续。下面我们看到了与产品相关的关键徽标。分析有Tableau，集成有MuleSoft，平台有Lightning。此外，营销产品倾向于 ExactTarget 配色方案，而商业产品倾向于 Demandware 配色方案：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbce8ec606b80ff1cdacdb4d7e0fa76a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: December 2020 Investor Day</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2020年12月投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The December 2020 Investor Day Presentation shows annual revenue reaching $50 billion or more by FY26 and I like to think about what the overall valuation will be at that point. CFO Hawkins notes that this $50 billion target includes Slack revenue but not revenue from any upcoming acquisitions. The numbers in the actual income statement and cash flow statement are a key consideration as well as the numbers that would be in place if the business was run for more of a steady-state environment with annual revenue growth in the low-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 12 月投资者日演示显示，到 26 财年，年收入将达到 500 亿美元或更多，我想思考一下届时的整体估值会是多少。首席财务官霍金斯指出，这一 500 亿美元的目标包括 Slack 收入，但不包括任何即将进行的收购的收入。实际损益表和现金流量表中的数字是一个关键考虑因素，如果企业在更稳定的环境中运营，年收入增长在低个位数，则会出现这些数字。</blockquote></p><p> It's easier to articulate my FY26 thoughts by starting with current numbers and margins. We have the following margins for<b>FY21:</b></p><p><blockquote>从当前的数字和利润率开始，更容易表达我对 26 财年的想法。我们有以下利润率<b>2021财年：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GAAP operating margin: 2.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GAAP 营业利润率：2.1%</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>non-GAAP operating margin: 17.7%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>非 GAAP 营业利润率：17.7%</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>unit economic margin: 39%</b>[December 2020 estimate]</p><p><blockquote><b>单位经济利润率：39%</b>[2020年12月估计]</blockquote></p><p> I also think about the operating cash flow (\"OCF\") yield in a similar manner as the margins above. Per the September 2018 Investor Day Presentation, it has been fairly consistent over the years at about 25%, even with the dilutive effect of acquisitions:</p><p><blockquote>我还以与上述利润率类似的方式考虑经营现金流（“OCF”）收益率。根据 2018 年 9 月投资者日演示，即使考虑到收购的稀释效应，多年来，这一比例也相当稳定，约为 25%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d5a744acc5b9127739e42a3a9be48e\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"319\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: September 2018 Investor Day Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2018年9月投资者日演讲</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Filings show that OCF Yield and OCF were 26% & $3.4 billion in FY19, 25% & $4.3 billion in FY20 and 23% and $4.8 billion in FY21 such that the OCF yield consistency continues.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>文件显示，OCF收益率和OCF在2019财年为26%和34亿美元，在2020财年为25%和43亿美元，在2021财年为23%和48亿美元，因此OCF收益率的一致性仍在继续。</i></blockquote></p><p> Each margin tells us something different. GAAP and non-GAAP operating margins are in the financial statements for any given year. The third type of margin is the unit economic margin which is based on subscription economics such that the lifetime of a customer is included over multiple fiscal years instead of just a single year. The income statement on the FY21 10-K shows GAAP operating income directly and the numbers in footnotes [1] and [2] are used for non-GAAP operating income:</p><p><blockquote>每个边距都告诉我们一些不同的东西。GAAP 和非 GAAP 营业利润率均包含在任何特定年份的财务报表中。第三种类型的利润是单位经济利润，它基于订阅经济学，因此客户的生命周期包括多个财政年度，而不仅仅是一个财政年度。2021 财年 10-K 的损益表直接显示 GAAP 经营利润，脚注 [1] 和 [2] 中的数字用于非 GAAP 经营利润：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d9174613e9191243a04e9ff17b354c8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: FY21 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021财年10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see that in FY21, the GAAP operating margin was 2.1% based on operating income of $455 million divided by revenue of $21.3 billion and the non-GAAP operating margin was 17.7% based on operating income of nearly $3.8 billion divided by revenue of $21.3 billion per the 4Q21 release. The difference between GAAP and non-GAAP in FY21 is the $1.1 billion in business combination amortization and $2.2 billion in stock-based compensation. In other words, the release adds the stock-based compensation and business combination amortization from the income statement footnotes such that we have a clearer picture of the non-GAAP operating income:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，在 2021 财年，基于 4.55 亿美元的经营利润除以 213 亿美元的收入，GAAP 营业利润率为 2.1%；基于近 38 亿美元的经营利润除以 213 亿美元的收入，非 GAAP 营业利润率为 17.7%2021 年第四季度发布的收入。2021 财年 GAAP 和非 GAAP 之间的差异在于 11 亿美元的企业合并摊销和 22 亿美元的股票薪酬。换句话说，该新闻稿从损益表脚注中添加了基于股票的薪酬和业务合并摊销，以便我们对非 GAAP 经营利润有更清晰的了解：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f97cbc39fedfc59780629f59593ea000\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: 4Q21 release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021年第四季度发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 3rd type of margin is from subscription unit economics. In this case, estimates are made about the lifetime value of customers spanning multiple fiscal years in the future. In other words, when we look at subscription unit economic margins, they are apples and oranges to the margins based on current fiscal filings as subscription economics contain the lifetime revenue and expenses over many years as opposed to any single fiscal year. The first part of subscription unit economics is the lifetime revenue value. Suppose we have a company whose first-year revenue is $1 with a high attrition rate of 50%. The lifetime revenue value starts out as follows:</p><p><blockquote>第三种类型的利润来自订阅单位经济学。在这种情况下，对客户未来多个财政年度的终身价值进行估计。换句话说，当我们查看订阅单位经济利润率时，根据当前的财政文件，它们与利润率相比是苹果和橙子，因为订阅经济包含多年的终身收入和支出，而不是任何一个财政年度。订阅单位经济学的第一部分是终身收入价值。假设我们有一家公司，第一年的收入是1美元，流失率高达50%。终身收入价值开始如下：</blockquote></p><p> year 1: $1.00</p><p><blockquote>第一年：1.00美元</blockquote></p><p> year 2: $0.50</p><p><blockquote>第二年：0.50美元</blockquote></p><p> year 3: $0.25</p><p><blockquote>第三年：0.25美元</blockquote></p><p> After 3 years, we have $1.75 and if we keep going then eventually we get close to another $0.25. It's a geometric series that can be approximated as first-year revenue divided by attrition. $1 divided by 50% comes out to $2 of lifetime revenue.</p><p><blockquote>3年后，我们有1.75美元，如果我们继续下去，最终我们会接近另一个0.25美元。这是一个几何级数，可以近似为第一年收入除以减员。1美元除以50%等于2美元的终身收入。</blockquote></p><p> The September 2015 Investor Day Presentation has a simple example without incremental annual recurring revenue (\"ARR\") that shows how near-term profitability can be sacrificed when thinking about lifetime unit margins. We have Acme Cloud which has $1 in first-year revenue, 25% attrition, a cost to book (\"CTB\") of $0.50 and a cost to serve (\"CTS\") of 75%. The lifetime revenue approaches first-year revenue divided by attrition or $1 divided by 25% which is $4. The CTS is 75% of this or $3. The unit income is lifetime revenue less CTB less CTS which comes to $0.50 and the lifetime unit margin is 12.5% or $0.50/$4. Acme has several options available. Option 1 is a proposal that lowers attrition 5% by increasing the CTS 2%. Option 2 is a proposal that targets enterprise customers who have a longer selling cycle and an elevated CTB but they also have a lower attrition rate. Both proposals are good in the long run as the lifetime unit margin goes up from 12.5% to 13% but both proposals put pressure on near-term margins:</p><p><blockquote>2015年9月投资者日演示有一个简单的例子，没有增量年度经常性收入（“ARR”），显示了在考虑终身单位利润率时如何牺牲近期盈利能力。我们有Acme Cloud，它的第一年收入为1美元，流失率为25%，预订成本（“CTB”）为0.50美元，服务成本（“CTS”）为75%。终身收入等于第一年收入除以损耗，或者1美元除以25%，即4美元。CTS是这个的75%或3美元。单位收入是终身收入减去CTB减去CTS，即0.50美元，终身单位利润率为12.5%或0.50美元/4美元。Acme有几种选择。方案 1 是一项通过将 CTS 提高 2% 来降低 5% 的建议。方案 2 是针对销售周期较长、CTB 较高但流失率较低的企业客户的提案。从长远来看，这两项提案都是好的，因为终身单位利润率从 12.5% 上升至 13%，但这两项提案都给近期利润率带来了压力：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ddd473c926ef80d67285c81023b1e88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: September 2015 Investor Day</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2015年9月投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The December 2020 Investor Day transcript reveals what SVP Evan Goldstein thinks about subscription economics including incremental ARR:</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 12 月投资者日记录揭示了高级副总裁 Evan Goldstein 对订阅经济学（包括增量 ARR）的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Subscription economics relies on 3 metrics: attrition, cost to book and cost to serve. We calculate lifetime revenue by one divided by attrition. Our <b>cost of book is our sales and marketing expenses</b> divided by incremental ARR. And then our <b>cost to serve is all the other expenses</b> related to supporting that revenue divided by your lifetime revenue. There are 4 major income statement lines that get us down from revenue towards operating income and in most years, adding/subtracting investment income, interest expense and taxes from operating income gets us close to net income, the first figure in the cash flow statement. These 4 major income statement lines are cost of revenue or cost of goods sold (\"COGS\"), research and development (\"R&D\"), marketing and sales (\"S&M\") and general and administrative (\"G&A\"). CTB is S&M while the other income statement lines are CTS per the subscription economics slide below from the November 2017 Investor Day Presentation:</p><p><blockquote>订阅经济学依赖于三个指标：流失、预订成本和服务成本。我们用1除以损耗来计算终身收入。我们的<b>图书成本是我们的销售和营销费用</b>除以增量ARR。然后我们的<b>服务成本是所有其他费用</b>与支持收入除以你一生的收入有关。有4个主要的损益表行使我们从收入到经营利润，在大多数年份，加上/减去经营利润的投资收入、利息支出和税收使我们接近净利润，即现金流量表中的第一个数字。该四个主要损益表项目为收入成本或销售成本（“成本”）、研发（“研发”）、市场推广及销售（“S&M”）以及一般及行政（“G&A”）。根据以下 2017 年 11 月投资者日演示文稿中的认购经济幻灯片，CTB 为 S&M，而其他损益表项目为 CTS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e110ea12c4d73e5eb9a5d1f2d39698f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: November 2017 Investor Day Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2017年11月投资者日演讲</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This slide from the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation is another way of visualizing the same concept. CTB is made of S&M and both these labels favor beige whereas the CTS label and its profit and loss (\"P&L\") statement lines are more of an aquamarine color:</p><p><blockquote>这张来自 2020 年 12 月投资者日演示的幻灯片是可视化同一概念的另一种方式。CTB 由 S&M 制成，这两个标签都偏向米色，而 CTS 标签及其损益表（“损益表”）行则更偏向海蓝宝石色：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20a25e426effbd54221726fde4321e20\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: December 2020 Investor Day</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2020年12月投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SVP Goldstein reveals that unit economics improved from FY17 to FY21 as declines in attrition more than offset the rise in CTB. CTS flattened and then declined as efficiencies in G&A were found. CTB has increased as they are selling a wide variety of products and workflows in multiple countries such that the portfolio is now broader. This sophistication creates more engagement for customers and attrition falls as Salesforce becomes stickier. SVP Goldstein goes on to explain that unit lifetime economic margins have gone from the mid-30s all the way up to 40% now:</p><p><blockquote>SVP Goldstein透露，从2017财年到2021财年，单位经济效益有所改善，因为减员的下降足以抵消CTB的上升。随着G&A中的效率被发现，CTS变平，然后下降。随着CTB在多个国家销售各种各样的产品和工作流程，CTB的业务也随之增长，因此产品组合现在更加广泛。这种复杂性为客户创造了更多的参与度，随着Salesforce变得更具粘性，流失率下降。SVP Goldstein 继续解释说，单位生命周期经济利润率已从 30 年代中期一路上升到现在的 40%：</blockquote></p><p> When we started talking to you, we talked about mid-30s. Last year, we updated you that we'd be at about 40%. Now we expect FY '21 to have some slight pressure as it relates to the pandemic. We shared with you earlier this year, we expect attrition to increase, but we believe this will be transitory over time and expect to get back to 40%. However, our decisions to maximize for subscription economics has created some impact on the short-term income statement. <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7fbc72952d7832066e0f2af720aed2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: December 2020 Investor Day</span></p><p><blockquote>当我们开始和你说话时，我们谈论的是30多岁。去年，我们告知您，我们的比例约为 40%。现在，我们预计 21 财年将面临一些轻微的压力，因为它与疫情有关。我们今年早些时候与您分享过，我们预计流失率将会增加，但我们相信随着时间的推移，这将是暂时的，预计会恢复到 40%。然而，我们最大限度地提高订阅经济性的决定对短期损益表产生了一些影响。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2020年12月投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I don't think unit economic margins will stop at 40%. There should be more upside in the next 5 years. This is what SVP Goldstein said about the ceiling at the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation:</p><p><blockquote>我认为单位经济利润率不会止步于 40%。未来5年应该会有更多的上升空间。以下是 SVP Goldstein 在 2020 年 12 月投资者日演讲中对上限的评价：</blockquote></p><p> We definitely think there's upside to that number, and it's about finding efficiencies in CTB, CTS and attrition. Obviously, in the short term, as I've mentioned in my presentation, we're focused on investing in CTB to sort of get every dollar of ARR, but there can potentially be upside as we think about those metrics. The bridge between GAAP and non-GAAP margins is clear; acquisition based amortization and stock-based-compensation are straightforward. I don't have a clear bridge between non-GAAP margins and unit economic margins but we do know that both exclude the impact of stock-based compensation and acquisition amortization. It is definitely beneficial that the unit economic margin has been rising over the years. Net cash provided by operating activities on the cash flow statement has some similarities to non-GAAP operating income in that both can be calculated from existing financial statements and both do not subtract amortization and stock-based compensation from revenue. We know that some of the FY21 numbers between the revenue of $21.3 billion and the net cash provided by operating activities of $4.8 billion are tied to revenue growth investments. I often think about what the net cash provided by operating activities would be if revenue wasn't growing. Likewise, I think about what things will look like when revenue reaches $50 billion. Revenue should still be growing substantially at that point so the net cash provided by operating activities number on the cash flow statement will be different from the number we would see without revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>我们绝对认为这个数字有好处，这关系到 CTB、CTS 和减员的效率。显然，在短期内，正如我在演讲中提到的，我们专注于投资 CTB，以获得每一美元的 ARR，但当我们考虑这些指标时，可能会有潜在的上升空间。GAAP 和非 GAAP 利润率之间的桥梁很明显；基于收购的摊销和基于股票的补偿很简单。我在非 GAAP 利润率和单位经济利润率之间没有明确的桥梁，但我们知道两者都排除了基于股票的薪酬和收购摊销的影响。单位经济利润率多年来一直在上升，这绝对是有益的。现金流量表中经营活动提供的净现金与非 GAAP 经营利润有一些相似之处，因为两者都可以根据现有财务报表计算，并且都不会从收入中减去摊销和基于股票的薪酬。我们知道，2021财年213亿美元的收入和48亿美元的经营活动提供的净现金之间的一些数字与收入增长投资有关。我经常思考，如果收入没有增长，经营活动提供的净现金会是多少。同样，我也在思考当收入达到 500 亿美元时会是什么样子。届时收入仍应大幅增长，因此现金流量表上的经营活动数字提供的净现金将与我们在没有收入增长的情况下看到的数字不同。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Eventually the landscape should change such that investing aggressively for annual revenue growth doesn't make as much sense. At that point S&M as a percentage of revenue should decline and the operating margin should rise. A November 2020writeupquotes Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss talking about this tradeoff, saying operating margins can get to 28% in 5 years and 33% in 10 years:</p><p><blockquote>最终，格局应该会发生变化，以至于积极投资以实现年收入增长就没有那么大意义了。届时，S&M 占收入的百分比应该会下降，而营业利润率应该会上升。2020 年 11 月的一篇文章引用了摩根士丹利分析师基思·韦斯 (Keith Weiss) 谈到这一权衡，称营业利润率在 5 年内可以达到 28%，在 10 年内可以达到 33%：</blockquote></p><p> \"The good news is our updated [software-as-a-service] X-ray suggests Salesforce currently has the unit economics to drive operating margins to 28% in 5 years (based on our growth estimates) and 33% in 10 years, as growth slows towards 10%,\" Weiss said. The December 2020 Investor Day Presentation shows operating cash flow going from $1.6 billion in FY16 to what they then estimated to be $4.9 billion for FY21 which is a CAGR of over 25%. The actual operating cash flow number for FY21 turned out to be $4.8 billion. Cash flow discussions come in the 4Q calls and the growth has been enormous over the last 3 years. Capex as a percentage of revenue has fallen significantly over the years. The10-Kfor FY14 shows capex was 7.3% of revenue or $299 million/$4.07 billion. By FY21, the 10-K shows it was just 3.3% of revenue or $710 million/$21.25 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“好消息是，我们更新的[软件即服务] X 光表明，Salesforce 目前具有将营业利润率在 5 年内提升至 28%（基于我们的增长预测），在 10 年内提升至 33%，因为增长放缓至 10%，”韦斯说。2020 年 12 月投资者日演示显示，运营现金流从 2016 财年的 16 亿美元增加到 2021 财年的 49 亿美元，CAGR 超过 25%。2021 财年的实际运营现金流为 48 亿美元。现金流讨论在第四季度评级中进行，过去3年的增长是巨大的。多年来，资本支出占收入的百分比大幅下降。10-KFOR 2014 财年显示资本支出占收入的 7.3%，即 2.99 亿美元/40.7 亿美元。到 2021 财年，10-K 显示仅占收入的 3.3%，即 7.1 亿美元/212.5 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c846999744311d81026f0e7ffd240fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: FY21 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021财年10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the December 2020 Wells Fargo TMT Conference, CFO Hawkins noted that their acquisitions tend to dilute margins because they often acquire companies that are just getting started such that they are losing money on the revenue that is generated. The key point is that Salesforce knows how to take these assets that are dilutive at first and grow their revenue in such a way that profits come in the long run:</p><p><blockquote>在 2020 年 12 月的富国银行 TMT 会议上，首席财务官霍金斯指出，他们的收购往往会稀释利润率，因为他们经常收购刚刚起步的公司，以至于他们在产生的收入上亏损。关键在于，Salesforce 知道如何利用这些起初具有稀释性的资产，并以长期盈利的方式增加收入：</blockquote></p><p> Our track record, our feedback on M&A has been well. It's been good. Take a look at <b>ExactTarget, take a look at Demandware, take a look at MuleSoft, take a look at Tableau</b>, and you're going to -- I always tell people there's a test at the end, we need to perform. But when you look back on that, again, I want to underscore, why do I say that as the CFO? Well, in FY '14, we made 8.9% operating margin, where we just came off a $4 billion a year. Today, the guide is roughly $21 billion in a couple of weeks, and there'll be -- obviously, the next year, you're talking north of $25 billion. And what are we doing? Our operating margin this year, the guide is effectively 17.6%. Okay, progress, better, better never done. But here's the key point, you know the attributes of each of these assets that we took on board. They were smaller, right? <b>They lost money, most of them. They are getting started</b>. In the 2Q22 call, it was revealed that the FY22 operating cash flow guidance growth would be 21% to 22% were it not for the dilutive cash flow impact of Slack and Acumen. FY21 revenue was $21.3 billion. Getting to $50 billion in 4.5 years by FY26 implies a CAGR of a little over 20%. I think operating cash flow can grow at a CAGR of nearly 23% such that it goes from $4.8 billion to about $12 billion. If capex is 2.5% of revenue at that point then it should be around $1.25 billion such that FCF is around $10.75 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们的业绩记录，我们对并购的反馈一直很好。很好。看看<b>ExactTarget，看看Demandware，看看MuleSoft，看看Tableau</b>你要--我总是告诉人们最后有一个测试，我们需要表演。但当你回过头来看这个问题时，我想再次强调，作为首席财务官，我为什么要这么说？2014 财年，我们的营业利润率为 8.9%，每年仅盈利 40 亿美元。今天，该指南将在几周内达到大约 210 亿美元，而且显然，明年，你谈论的是 250 亿美元以上。我们在做什么？我们今年的营业利润率指导实际上是17.6%。好吧，进步，更好，更好从未做过。但关键点是，您知道我们携带的每种资产的属性。它们更小，对吗？<b>他们赔钱了，大部分。他们开始了</b>.在2022年第二季度的看涨期权中显示，如果没有Slack和Acumen的稀释现金流影响，2022财年的经营现金流指导增长将为21%至22%。2021 财年收入为 213 亿美元。到 26 财年，4.5 年内达到 500 亿美元意味着 CAGR 略高于 20%。我认为经营现金流可以以近 23% 的复合年增长率增长，从 48 亿美元增加到约 120 亿美元。如果当时资本支出占收入的2.5%，那么它应该在12.5亿美元左右，因此自由现金流约为107.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I treat stock-based compensation as a cash expense so my adjusted FCF number would normally be lower than this. However, growth investments in S&M largely offset the stock-based compensation consideration. If the market values Salesforce at 35x FCF at this time then it should be worth about $375 billion. This is where I see things on the low end seeing as management can be circumspect with guidance. On the high end, I think revenue can be $55 billion in FY26 and operating cash flow can grow at a CAGR of nearly 27% to reach $14 billion. Capex could be as little as 2% of revenue for $1.1 billion such that FCF is $12.9 billion. 35x this amount is about $450 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我将基于股票的薪酬视为现金支出，因此我调整后的自由现金流数字通常会低于这个数字。然而，对 S&M 的增长投资在很大程度上抵消了基于股票的薪酬考虑。如果此时 Salesforce 的市场估值为 35 倍 FCF，那么它的价值应该约为 3750 亿美元。这是我看到低端事情的地方，因为管理层可以谨慎地指导。在高端方面，我认为 26 财年的收入可能达到 550 亿美元，运营现金流可能以近 27% 的复合年增长率增长，达到 140 亿美元。资本支出可能低至 11 亿美元收入的 2%，因此自由现金流为 129 亿美元。这个数额的35倍约为4500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking at the 2Q22 balance sheet in the 10-Q filing, the enterprise value is about $1.7 billion more than the market cap due to $10.6 billion in long-term debt, $2.9 billion in long-term leases, $0.7 billion in short-term leases and $1.3 billion in Slack notes, partially offset by $6.3 billion in cash and equivalents plus $3.4 billion in marketable securities plus $4.1 billion in strategic investments. But we are using a FCF framework for valuation where debt and leases are already accounted for as they lower FCF. In FY21, interest expense was the primary component of the $64 million \"other expense\" line. And in the cash flow statement we see that FY21 operating cash flow was lowered by $830 million due to operating lease liabilities. I just look at the market cap for the valuation framework. The 2Q22 10-Q says there were approximately 979 million shares outstanding as of August 25, 2021. The September 10th share price was $257.20 implying a market cap of nearly $252 billion.</p><p><blockquote>查看 10 季度文件中的2022年第二季度资产负债表，由于长期债务 106 亿美元、长期租赁 29 亿美元、短期租赁 7 亿美元和 13 亿美元的闲置票据，企业价值比市值高出约 17 亿美元，部分被 63 亿美元现金及等价物加上 34 亿美元有价证券加上 41 亿美元战略投资所抵消。但我们使用自由现金流框架进行估值，其中债务和租赁已经被考虑在内，因为它们降低了自由现金流。在 2021 财年，利息支出是 6,400 万美元“其他费用”项目的主要组成部分。在现金流量表中，我们看到，由于经营租赁负债，2021财年经营现金流减少了8.3亿美元。我只是看看估值框架的市值。2022年第二季度 10-Q 表示，截至 2021 年 8 月 25 日，约有 9.79 亿股流通股。9 月 10 日的股价为 257.20 美元，意味着市值接近 2520 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Again, today's market cap is almost $255 billion. If it grows to $375 billion in 4 and a half years at the end of FY26 then the 4.5 year CAGR is almost 9%. If it grows to $450 billion in 4 and a half years at the end of FY26 then the CAGR is a little over 13%. If there were no dilution then I think we'd see an outcome somewhere in between such that the stock has a CAGR between 9% and 13% over the next 4 and a half years. There will be some dilution so the CAGR range could be a bit lower, especially if the dilution comes from acquisitions that fail to speed up the $50 billion revenue target.</p><p><blockquote>同样，今天的市值接近2550亿美元。如果在 26 财年末的 4 年半时间内增长到 3750 亿美元，那么 4.5 年的复合年增长率几乎为 9%。如果在 26 财年末的 4 年半时间内增长到 4500 亿美元，那么 CAGR 将略高于 13%。如果没有稀释，那么我认为我们会看到介于两者之间的结果，即该股在未来 4 年半的复合年增长率在 9% 到 13% 之间。将会有一些稀释，因此CAGR范围可能会低一点，特别是如果稀释来自未能加快500亿美元收入目标的收购。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Salesforce: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable Price<blockquote>Salesforce：一家价格合理的优秀公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSalesforce: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable Price<blockquote>Salesforce：一家价格合理的优秀公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-13 20:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The flexible approach at Salesforce is a competitive advantage as they help companies shift to the cloud.</li> <li>The AppExchange ecosystem increases engagement and lowers attrition.</li> <li>Capex as a percentage of revenue fell from 7.3% in fiscal ‘14 to 3.3% in fiscal ‘21.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/665b6616888a5d8d7ba20ad02b7ee091\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Stephen Lam/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Salesforce的灵活方法是一种竞争优势，因为它们可以帮助公司向云迁移。</li><li>AppExchange生态系统提高了参与度，降低了流失。</li><li>资本支出占收入的百分比从14财年的7.3%下降到21财年的3.3%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> My thesis is that Salesforce (CRM) is a wonderful company at a reasonable price. We are still in the early days as software continues shifting to the cloud. Much of the profitability for Salesforce is obfuscated by growth investments. In the 4Q20 call, it was revealed that returns for shareholders reached 4,000% since going public in 2004.</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是Salesforce（CRM）是一家价格合理的优秀公司。随着软件继续向云迁移，我们仍处于早期阶段。Salesforce 的大部分盈利能力都被增长投资所掩盖。2020年第四季度看涨期权显示，自2004年上市以来，股东回报率达到4000%。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Marc Benioff has said that the way to understand the future is to look at the past. Written in 2009,<i>Behind the Cloud</i>is an excellent resource that helps explain how Salesforce laid their foundation and it is cited throughout this article.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫曾表示，了解未来的方法是回顾过去。写于2009年，<i>云背后</i>是一个很好的资源，有助于解释Salesforce是如何奠定基础的，本文通篇都引用了它。</blockquote></p><p> Seeing as the fiscal year goes through January, I think of the fiscal year as being equal to the calendar year plus one for the first three quarters. The fourth quarter is an exception as it is the only quarter that closes within the calendar year. In other words, calendar '21 is fiscal '22 for the first three quarters.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于财政年度将持续到一月份，我认为财政年度等于日历年加上前三个季度的一。第四季度是个例外，因为它是日历年内唯一结束的季度。换句话说，21 财年的前三个季度是 22 财年。</blockquote></p><p> Flexibility</p><p><blockquote>灵活性</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce is flexible, both with the needs of their customers and their own needs. From the beginning, they recognized that it was time to adapt to a new world where buying software would be like buying products on Amazon without the need for upgrades and updates. Meanwhile rigid incumbents like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) continued to develop software as if the internet didn't exist. Salesforce embraces APIs such that companies can adopt a wide array of technology options. They provide the right optionality for companies as the world moves to subscriptions and direct-to-consumer (\"D2C\") relationships. Salesforce is limber when it comes to looking at their own requirements such as their infrastructure needs.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce非常灵活，既能满足客户的需求，也能满足他们自己的需求。从一开始，他们就认识到是时候适应一个新世界了，在这个新世界里，购买软件就像在亚马逊上购买产品一样，不需要升级和更新。与此同时，甲骨文（ORCL）和SAP（SAP）等老牌公司继续开发软件，就好像互联网不存在一样。Salesforce采用API，以便公司可以采用广泛的技术选项。随着世界转向订阅和直接面向消费者（“D2C”）关系，它们为公司提供了正确的选择。Salesforce在考虑他们自己的需求（如基础设施需求）时非常灵活。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce makes it easy for companies to adopt the latest technology options. The importance of using APIs for integration was a giant step in their evolution per <i>Behind the Cloud</i>:</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce使公司能够轻松采用最新的技术选项。使用API进行集成的重要性是它们发展的一大步<i>云背后</i>:</blockquote></p><p> We made a significant leap in the technology when we offered integration capabilities by providing an application programming interface (\"API\"), or a way for salesforce.com to communicate with other programs. This transformed our product and technology so that the data in salesforce.com were not isolated in Web silos, but could interact with other data that were behind the firewall or on other Web sites. The API, for example, allowed salesforce.com to interface with Google Maps, so salespeople could instantly access a map of where all their customers were located. [ <i>Behind the Cloud</i>: Location: 1,881] Answering a question at the September 2017 Deutsche Bank Conference, Product EVP Mike Rosenbaum notes that Tesla (TSLA) has a continual relationship with customers by providing software updates. He notes that this is the type of thinking companies need to embrace and that Salesforce helps companies be malleable such that they can maintain direct relationships with customers:</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过提供应用程序编程接口（“API”）或salesforce.com与其他程序通信的方式来提供集成功能时，我们在技术上取得了重大飞跃。这改变了我们的产品和技术，使salesforce.com中的数据不会被隔离在Web孤岛中，而是可以与防火墙后面或其他网站上的其他数据进行交互。例如，该 API 允许 salesforce.com 与 Google Maps 接口，因此销售人员可以立即访问所有客户的位置地图。[<i>云背后</i>: 位置：1,881] 产品执行副总裁 Mike Rosenbaum 在 2017 年 9 月德意志银行会议上回答问题时指出，特斯拉 (TSLA) 通过提供软件更新与客户保持着持续的关系。他指出，这是公司需要接受的思维类型，Salesforce 帮助公司具有可塑性，以便他们可以与客户保持直接关系：</blockquote></p><p> You take for example a company like Dollar Shave Club where instead of selling razors, I'm going to sell a subscription model so that every period of time, you get some razors delivered to you. That's the idea, I think, is where you start to - I think, every company in the world, whether it's brand manufacturing or anyone, needs to start to think about their business model a little bit more like a subscription service. And I think that is the very, very powerful idea that is made possible by CRM systems like Salesforce. We make that -- we make the technology barrier to implementing a model like that go away, to a large degree. Years ago Salesforce started out with their own data centers in California, Virginia and Singapore but they kept an open mind and reevaluated infrastructure decisions as time went by. Rather than opening their own data centers in new markets like Canada and Australia, they opted to go with Amazon's (AMZN) AWS. In addition to the close relationship with AWS, a partnership with Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) was discussed at the November 2017 Investor Day. Having 3 parts to it, the Google partnership includes Google Analytics, G Suite and some infrastructure on Google Cloud Platform (\"GCP\").</p><p><blockquote>以Dollar Shave Club这样的公司为例，我不卖剃须刀，而是卖订阅模式，这样每隔一段时间，你就会收到一些剃须刀。我认为，这就是你开始的想法——我认为，世界上的每家公司，无论是品牌制造还是任何人，都需要开始考虑他们的商业模式，更像订阅服务。我认为这是像Salesforce这样的CRM系统实现的非常非常强大的想法。我们做到了这一点——我们在很大程度上消除了实施这样一个模型的技术壁垒。几年前，Salesforce开始在加利福尼亚州、弗吉尼亚州和新加坡建立自己的数据中心，但他们保持开放的心态，并随着时间的推移重新评估基础设施决策。他们没有在加拿大和澳大利亚等新市场开设自己的数据中心，而是选择了亚马逊（AMZN）的AWS。除了与 AWS 的密切关系外，2017 年 11 月投资者日还讨论了与谷歌 (GOOG)（GOOGL）的合作伙伴关系。谷歌合作伙伴关系由三个部分组成，包括谷歌分析、G套件和谷歌云平台（“GCP”）上的一些基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AppExchange Ecosystem</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AppExchange生态系统</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AppExchange is the world's leading enterprise cloud ecosystem with over 3,000 apps and components. Per the faq, they have 117,000 customer reviews and 9 million installs. At the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation, President & COO Bret Taylor said AppExchange is one of the main competitive advantages for Salesforce, noting the million-plus weekly active developers on Slack. Back in 2005 CEO Benioff pointed out that AppExchange was groundbreaking.<i>Behind the Cloud</i>talks about the significance of becoming a platform noting that traditional software companies like Siebel and SAP didn't make the right types of capital investments to empower their partners:</p><p><blockquote>AppExchange是全球领先的企业云生态系统，拥有超过3,000个应用程序和组件。根据常见问题，他们有117,000条客户评论和900万次安装。在2020年12月的投资者日演示中，总裁兼首席运营官Bret Taylor表示，AppExchange是Salesforce的主要竞争优势之一，并指出Slack上每周活跃的开发人员超过100万。早在2005年，首席执行官贝尼奥夫就指出，AppExchange是开创性的。<i>云背后</i>谈论成为平台的重要性，指出 Siebel 和 SAP 等传统软件公司没有进行正确类型的资本投资来增强其合作伙伴的能力：</blockquote></p><p> One of the most pivotal decisions we made as a company was to make our code available to let other companies build their own complementary online services. This idea to become a platform, or an operating system for the Internet (similar to how Windows is an operating system for PCs), offered a way to allow everyone to create applications online and gave us an opportunity to attract and <b>retain more customers</b>. [ <i>Behind the Cloud</i>: Location: 1,895] Veeva (VEEV) helps life science companies shift to the cloud and their payments to Salesforce are part of their cost of revenues line on the income statement. They were an early Independent Software Vendor (\"ISV\") and they have grown over the years such that their market cap is now close to $50 billion. Per their filings, Veeva has a value-added reseller agreement with Salesforce for a cumulative $500 million from March 2014 to September 2025 which they will fulfill easily as there is only $57 million remaining.</p><p><blockquote>作为一家公司，我们做出的最关键的决定之一是让我们的代码可用，让其他公司构建他们自己的补充在线服务。这种成为互联网平台或操作系统的想法（类似于Windows是PC的操作系统），提供了一种允许每个人在线创建应用程序的方法，并给了我们一个吸引和吸引用户的机会。<b>留住更多客户</b>.[<i>云背后</i>: 位置：1,895] Veeva (VEEV) 帮助生命科学公司向云迁移，他们向 Salesforce 付款是损益表上收入成本项目的一部分。他们是一家早期的独立软件供应商（“ISV”），多年来他们一直在发展，因此他们的市值现在接近500亿美元。根据他们的文件，Veeva与Salesforce签订了一份增值经销商协议，从2014年3月到2025年9月，累计价值5亿美元，他们将轻松履行该协议，因为只剩下5700万美元。</blockquote></p><p> It was simple to see the potential for AWS years ago when Netflix (NFLX) announced they were using them for their media content. The same thing is happening in banking as old thought processes are shifting and resources are being allocated to AppExchange banking leader nCino (NCNO). At a June 2018 Evercore ISI event, nCino Executive Director of Global Market Strategy Jim Baxley talked about the way banks are moving to the cloud seeing as they don't want to build their own data centers anymore and they don't want to have armies of developers.</p><p><blockquote>几年前，当网飞（NFLX）宣布他们将使用AWS制作媒体内容时，很容易看到AWS的潜力。同样的事情也在银行业发生，因为旧的思维过程正在转变，资源分配给 AppExchange 银行业领导者 nCino (NCNO)。在 2018 年 6 月的 Evercore ISI 活动中，nCino 全球市场战略执行董事 Jim Baxley 谈到了银行向云迁移的方式，因为他们不再想构建自己的数据中心，也不想拥有大批开发人员。</blockquote></p><p> DocuSign(NASDAQ:DOCU) COO Scott Olrich spoke about the relationship with Salesforce at DocuSign's March 2021 Virtual Financial Analyst Day. DocuSign Gen is a lightweight tool that allows reps to generate a contract from inside of Salesforce. The Salesforce sales team helps sell these products and there is a specialized version for quotes and billing.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign（纳斯达克股票代码：DOCU）首席运营官 Scott Olrich 在 DocuSign 2021 年 3 月虚拟金融分析师日上谈到了与 Salesforce 的关系。DocuSign Gen是一个轻量级工具，允许销售代表从Salesforce内部生成合同。Salesforce销售团队帮助销售这些产品，并且有一个专门的版本用于报价和计费。</blockquote></p><p> The November 2017 Investor Day Presentation shows ISV with a revenue run rate of $310 million such that it was 17% of the Platform & Other Revenue at that time:</p><p><blockquote>2017 年 11 月投资者日演示显示，ISV 的收入运行率为 3.1 亿美元，占当时平台和其他收入的 17%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382b79247454c56e777664f619f500b8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: November 2017 Investor Day Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2017年11月投资者日演讲</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I value the AppExchange platform more for the way that it lowers attrition through increased innovation, utility and engagement than for the revenue it generates directly.</p><p><blockquote>我更看重AppExchange平台，因为它通过增加创新、实用性和参与度来降低流失，而不是它直接产生的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Successful Acquisitions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成功收购</b></blockquote></p><p> Having a flexible and collaborative mindset, Salesforce has a history of giving subsidiaries the right environment to continue with innovation and revenue growth after being acquired. Other software giants have a more rigid mindset such that their acquisitions don't work out the right way. At the October 2006 Dreamforce Investor Summit, Worldwide Sales and Distribution President Jim Steele talked about the fact that Siebel's innovation stagnated after being acquired by Oracle.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce 拥有灵活和协作的思维方式，历来为子公司提供合适的环境，以便在被收购后继续创新和收入增长。其他软件巨头的心态更加僵化，因此他们的收购并没有以正确的方式进行。在2006年10月的Dreamforce投资者峰会上，全球销售和分销总裁Jim Steele谈到了Siebel被甲骨文收购后创新停滞不前的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The acquisitions of ExactTarget, ClickSoftware and Vlocity were very important for Salesforce despite the fact that there have been others at higher price tags. ExactTarget was acquired in 2013 to help Salesforce become number one in marketing. An August 2019 diginomica writeup notes that much of Salesforce's Field Service Lightning software was licensed and originally written by ClickSoftware developers. Bringing ClickSoftware in-house bolstered the Service and Platform offerings. Vlocity was built on the Salesforce platform and their acquisition was finalized in June 2020. They strengthen Salesforce's Service offering. At the September 2020 RBC Tour, Salesforce Industries Division CEO David Schmaier talked about Vlocity's approach noting that they serve regulated industries including communications, insurance, health, government, energy and media.</p><p><blockquote>收购 ExactTarget、ClickSoftware 和 Vlocity 对 Salesforce 来说非常重要，尽管事实上还有其他价格更高的公司。ExactTarget于2013年被收购，以帮助Salesforce成为营销领域的第一名。2019年8月的一篇diginomica文章指出，Salesforce的大部分现场服务闪电软件都是由ClickSoftware开发人员许可和最初编写的。将ClickSoftware引入内部增强了服务和平台产品。Vlocity建立在Salesforce平台上，他们的收购于2020年6月完成。他们加强了Salesforce的服务产品。在 2020 年 9 月的 RBC 巡演中，Salesforce Industries 部门首席执行官 David Schmaier 谈到了 Vlocity 的方法，指出他们服务于通信、保险、健康、政府、能源和媒体等受监管行业。</blockquote></p><p> A June 2021 article from Fortune mentions the biggest acquisitions as follows:</p><p><blockquote>《财富》杂志 2021 年 6 月的一篇文章提到了最大的收购如下：</blockquote></p><p> Demandware: Price: $2.8 billion - June 2016</p><p><blockquote>Demandware：价格：28 亿美元 - 2016 年 6 月</blockquote></p><p> Mulesoft: Price: $6.5 billion - March 2018</p><p><blockquote>Mulesoft：价格：65 亿美元 - 2018 年 3 月</blockquote></p><p> Tableau: Price: $15.7 billion - June 2019</p><p><blockquote>表：价格：157 亿美元 - 2019 年 6 月</blockquote></p><p> Slack: Price: $27.7 billion - December 2020 (deal announced)</p><p><blockquote>Slack：价格：277 亿美元 - 2020 年 12 月（交易宣布）</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Demandware is the key part of Salesforce's Commerce offering while Tableau is essential for the Analytics offering and MuleSoft powers the Integration offering. The importance of Tableau and MuleSoft was made evident in the 1Q22 cal lwhen it was revealed that Tableau was in 8 of the top 10 new deals and MuleSoft was in 5 of the 10.</p><p><blockquote>Demandware是Salesforce商务产品的关键部分，而Tableau对于分析产品至关重要，MuleSoft为集成产品提供支持。Tableau和MuleSoft的重要性在2022年第一季度加州L显而易见，当时据透露，Tableau在前10名新交易中占8名，MuleSoft在前10名中占5名。</blockquote></p><p> At the June 2019 Tableau call, CEO Benioff talks about the fact that traditional enterprise software companies are unaccommodating when it comes to new technology. The reputation of flexibility at Salesforce is a big factor when it comes to acquisitions:</p><p><blockquote>在2019年6月的Tableau看涨期权上，首席执行官贝尼奥夫谈到了传统企业软件公司在新技术方面不适应的事实。Salesforce 的灵活性声誉是收购的一个重要因素：</blockquote></p><p> There is a question of, well, gee, MuleSoft really is all about connecting to an ecosystem of data and connects to lots of different data sources like SAP, Microsoft and Amazon and Google and Workday and ServiceNow and so many companies, and how do you plan to address that? And it was kind of a shock to me actually because when I have the question, it was kind of like somehow people think that we wouldn't connect to those companies or wouldn't support all those companies or that we would do something to cut them off. The November 2019 Investor Day Presentation notes the success of revenue growth with 3 prominent acquisitions. Acquired in July 2013 with annual revenue of $286 million, ExactTarget grew its revenue to $1,450 million in 6 years. Demandware was purchased in July 2016 and they had revenue of $227 million at the time which grew to $590 million in 3 years. MuleSoft was acquired in May 2018 when they had revenue of $284 million and this grew to $665 million in a short time.</p><p><blockquote>有一个问题，嗯，哎呀，MuleSoft真的是关于连接到一个数据生态系统，并连接到许多不同的数据源，如SAP、微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Workday和ServiceNow以及许多其他公司，你打算如何解决这个问题？实际上，这对我来说有点震惊，因为当我提出这个问题时，人们似乎认为我们不会与这些公司建立联系，或者不会支持所有这些公司，或者我们会采取一些措施来切断它们。2019 年 11 月投资者日演示文稿指出，通过 3 项重要收购实现了收入增长。ExactTarget 于 2013 年 7 月被收购，年收入为 2.86 亿美元，6 年内收入增长至 14.5 亿美元。Demandware于2016年7月被收购，当时他们的收入为2.27亿美元，在3年内增长到5.9亿美元。MuleSoft于2018年5月被收购，当时他们的收入为2.84亿美元，并在短时间内增长到6.65亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Disrupting Incumbents</b></p><p><blockquote><b>颠覆现任者</b></blockquote></p><p> The CRM market was fragmented before Salesforce entered the picture. Small companies often used ACT, medium sized companies used Microsoft (MSFT) and large companies went with Siebel, SAP or Peoplesoft.<i>Behind the Cloud</i>reveals that small, medium and large businesses have heterogeneous preferences and the dogma at the time was that they couldn't all be served by a single company:</p><p><blockquote>在Salesforce进入市场之前，CRM市场是分散的。小公司经常使用ACT，中型公司使用微软（MSFT），大公司使用Siebel、SAP或Peoplesoft。<i>云背后</i>揭示了小型、中型和大型企业有不同的偏好，当时的教条是它们不可能都由一家公司提供服务：</blockquote></p><p> When we started salesforce.com, companies sold separate software systems to small, medium, and large companies. We wanted to change that and provide everyone with the same affordable and effective service. For as long as I can remember, people told us we couldn't serve all markets - they told us that it could not be done. [ <i>Behind the Cloud</i>: Location: 1,643] Salesforce became a democratizing tool by using the internet to provide the same services to small companies that were only available to large enterprises in the past. Over time they began serving more of the large companies and this disrupted incumbents like Oracle and SAP. The September 2015 Investor Day Presentation shows that SAP had 14.3% CRM market share in FY11 followed by Oracle at 12.6% and Salesforce at 10.6%. It reveals that Salesforce passed both companies within a year or two of FY11 and had a comfortable lead by FY15. The December 2020 Investor Day Presentation shows Salesforce up to 19.8% CRM market share by 2020H1, well ahead of Oracle at just 5.3% and SAP at a mere 4.8%.</p><p><blockquote>当我们创办salesforce.com时，公司向小型、中型和大型企业出售单独的软件系统。我们想改变这种状况，为每个人提供同样实惠有效的服务。从我记事起，人们就告诉我们，我们不可能服务于所有市场——他们告诉我们，这是不可能的。 [<i>云背后</i>: Location: 1,643] Salesforce 成为一个民主化的工具，它利用互联网为小公司提供过去只有大型企业才能提供的相同服务。随着时间的推移，他们开始为更多的大公司提供服务，这扰乱了甲骨文和SAP等现有公司。2015年9月的投资者日演示显示，SAP在2011财年拥有14.3%的CRM市场份额，其次是甲骨文（12.6%）和Salesforce（10.6%）。报告显示，Salesforce 在 2011 财年的一两年内超过了这两家公司，并在 2015 财年轻松领先。2020年12月的投资者日演示显示，到2020年上半年，Salesforce的CRM市场份额将达到19.8%，远远领先于甲骨文的5.3%和SAP的4.8%。</blockquote></p><p> At the September 2006 Citigroup Global Technology Conference, CEO Benioff talks about SAP's obstinance:</p><p><blockquote>在 2006 年 9 月举行的花旗集团全球技术大会上，首席执行官贝尼奥夫谈到了 SAP 的固执：</blockquote></p><p> But SAP has not changed. They are basically just selling the same stuff that they had 10 years ago -- single-tenant architecture, license fees -- same business model, same technology model, running their business the same way. They talk about on-demand -- all on-demand to them is moving their database from one datacenter to another datacenter. It is not multitenancy. They don't even believe in multitenancy. They say they don't believe in multitenancy. Unlike incumbents who rely on maintenance contracts, Salesforce wanted to do away with packaged software and make things as easy as buying products on Amazon. This is well explained in<i>Behind the Cloud</i>:</p><p><blockquote>但SAP并没有改变。他们基本上只是销售10年前相同的东西——单租户架构、许可费——相同的商业模式、相同的技术模式、相同的业务运营方式。他们谈论按需——对他们来说，所有按需都是将数据库从一个数据中心移动到另一个数据中心。这不是多租户。他们甚至不相信多租户。他们说他们不相信多租户。与依赖维护合同的现有企业不同，Salesforce 希望取消打包软件，让事情像在亚马逊上购买产品一样简单。这在中解释得很好<i>云背后</i>:</blockquote></p><p> We wanted to take advantage of a new platform - the Internet - and deliver business applications cheaply through a Web site that was as easy to use as Amazon.com. We had to think out of the box. Literally, no more packaged software. And figuratively, as no one was then selling subscriptions for business applications and delivering them over the Web. [ <i>Behind the Cloud</i>: Location: 3,702] CEO Benioff discusses inflexible thinking in the 2Q16callsaying that Oracle and SAP still sell old technology similar to the way that IBM still sells mainframes:</p><p><blockquote>我们想利用一个新平台——互联网——通过一个像亚马逊一样易于使用的网站以低成本交付商业应用程序。我们不得不跳出框框思考。从字面上看，不再有打包软件。形象地说，当时没有人出售业务应用程序的订阅并通过网络交付。[<i>云背后</i>: 位置：3,702] 首席执行官贝尼奥夫在 2016 年第二季度电话会议中讨论了僵化的思维，称甲骨文和 SAP 仍在销售旧技术，类似于 IBM 仍在销售大型机：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And that's what you see with companies like Oracle and SAP. These are old technology bases that are meandering along like mainframes. And I think that is reflected exactly as you said, in their license revenue growth which has been poor. And in <b>their movement to the cloud has been stunted because they don't want to shift those customers into new models</b>, exactly why IBM lost the PC business because they were too afraid to let go of the mainframe. It's the past replaying itself, but instead of IBM you've got Oracle and SAP basically running the same playbook. President & Chief Product Officer David Schmaier cites The Innovator's Dilemma at the September 2020 RBC Tour saying Salesforce is here to disrupt on-premise competitors:</p><p><blockquote>这就是你在甲骨文和SAP等公司看到的情况。这些都是像大型机一样蜿蜒前行的旧技术基础。我认为这正如你所说，反映在他们的许可收入增长中，而许可收入增长一直很差。和在<b>他们向云的迁移受到阻碍，因为他们不想将这些客户转移到新的模式中</b>这就是为什么IBM失去了PC业务，因为他们太害怕放弃大型机。这是过去的重演，但Oracle和SAP基本上运行相同的剧本，而不是IBM。总裁兼首席产品官 David Schmaier 在 2020 年 9 月 RBC 巡演中引用了创新者的困境，称 Salesforce 的目的是颠覆内部竞争对手：</blockquote></p><p> And the very simple way to sell against those vendors is it's faster to deploy, it's easier to use. And oh, by the way, if you look at the total cost of ownership, it actually costs less money, too. So even I can sell that. Let me think about that again. It's faster, it's easier and it costs less money. And it's constantly refreshed in the cloud. And so it's just way better than that old on-premise world. And so we like to find <b>markets where we're disrupting legacy competitors is kind of the - I think that's the perfect storm</b>. It doesn't mean we wouldn't go into a space where there is another cloud competitor, but it's easier and faster if that's not the case. <b>Declining Attrition</b></p><p><blockquote>与这些供应商竞争的非常简单的方法是部署更快，更容易使用。哦，顺便说一句，如果你看看总拥有成本，它实际上也花了更少的钱。所以连我都能卖。让我再考虑一下。它更快，更容易，而且花费更少的钱。它在云端不断刷新。因此，它比旧的内部世界要好得多。所以我们想找到<b>我们正在颠覆传统竞争对手的市场有点像 - 我认为这是完美的风暴</b>这并不意味着我们不会进入另一个云竞争对手的领域，但如果不是这样，那就更容易、更快了。<b>减损</b></blockquote></p><p> The November 2019 Investor Day Presentation shows that attrition has declined significantly from about 21% in FY10 to less than 10% in FY20:</p><p><blockquote>2019 年 11 月投资者日演示显示，流失率已从 2010 财年的约 21% 大幅下降至 2020 财年的不到 10%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019cb7b9807c53883ad0012c39d0c7c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: November 2019 Investor Day Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2019年11月投资者日演讲</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the declining attrition is that Salesforce is the first software company to provide CRM and other offerings in the cloud at scale. Another key factor is the AppExchange where increased innovation, utility and overall engagement lead to lower attrition. Acquisitions have led to today's multi-cloud environment which is also good for increasing engagement and lowering attrition.</p><p><blockquote>减员下降的原因之一是Salesforce是第一家在云中大规模提供CRM和其他产品的软件公司。另一个关键因素是 AppExchange，其中创新、实用性和整体参与度的增加可以降低流失。收购带来了当今的多云环境，这也有利于提高参与度和降低流失。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Declining attrition has made it much easier for Salesforce to increase revenue. Looking at the last 7 years, subscription and support revenue growth has been prodigious, going from about $5 billion in FY15 all the way up to around $20 billion by FY21. Note that the Platform and Other offering includes the Integration and Analytics offerings. Professional services and other revenue is not shown here and it was up to $1.3 billion by 2021:</p><p><blockquote>减员使得 Salesforce 更容易增加收入。回顾过去 7 年，订阅和支持收入增长惊人，从 2015 财年的约 50 亿美元一直增长到 2021 财年的约 200 亿美元。请注意，平台和其他产品包括集成和分析产品。专业服务和其他收入未显示在此处，到 2021 年将达到 13 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdadcd43083d7826f9a1abaf444ebfc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: author's spreadsheet from 10-K filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：10-K 文件中的作者电子表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue growth should continue as the total addressable market (\"TAM\") expands to $175 billion by fiscal '25 per the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation. Below we see key logos tied to offerings. Analytics has Tableau, Integration has MuleSoft, and Platform has Lightning from a slide in. Also, the Marketing offering favors the ExactTarget color scheme and Commerce offering favors the Demandware color scheme:</p><p><blockquote>根据 2020 年 12 月投资者日报告，到 25 财年，总潜在市场 (“TAM”) 将扩大到 1,750 亿美元，收入增长应该会继续。下面我们看到了与产品相关的关键徽标。分析有Tableau，集成有MuleSoft，平台有Lightning。此外，营销产品倾向于 ExactTarget 配色方案，而商业产品倾向于 Demandware 配色方案：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbce8ec606b80ff1cdacdb4d7e0fa76a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: December 2020 Investor Day</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2020年12月投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The December 2020 Investor Day Presentation shows annual revenue reaching $50 billion or more by FY26 and I like to think about what the overall valuation will be at that point. CFO Hawkins notes that this $50 billion target includes Slack revenue but not revenue from any upcoming acquisitions. The numbers in the actual income statement and cash flow statement are a key consideration as well as the numbers that would be in place if the business was run for more of a steady-state environment with annual revenue growth in the low-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 12 月投资者日演示显示，到 26 财年，年收入将达到 500 亿美元或更多，我想思考一下届时的整体估值会是多少。首席财务官霍金斯指出，这一 500 亿美元的目标包括 Slack 收入，但不包括任何即将进行的收购的收入。实际损益表和现金流量表中的数字是一个关键考虑因素，如果企业在更稳定的环境中运营，年收入增长在低个位数，则会出现这些数字。</blockquote></p><p> It's easier to articulate my FY26 thoughts by starting with current numbers and margins. We have the following margins for<b>FY21:</b></p><p><blockquote>从当前的数字和利润率开始，更容易表达我对 26 财年的想法。我们有以下利润率<b>2021财年：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GAAP operating margin: 2.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GAAP 营业利润率：2.1%</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>non-GAAP operating margin: 17.7%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>非 GAAP 营业利润率：17.7%</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>unit economic margin: 39%</b>[December 2020 estimate]</p><p><blockquote><b>单位经济利润率：39%</b>[2020年12月估计]</blockquote></p><p> I also think about the operating cash flow (\"OCF\") yield in a similar manner as the margins above. Per the September 2018 Investor Day Presentation, it has been fairly consistent over the years at about 25%, even with the dilutive effect of acquisitions:</p><p><blockquote>我还以与上述利润率类似的方式考虑经营现金流（“OCF”）收益率。根据 2018 年 9 月投资者日演示，即使考虑到收购的稀释效应，多年来，这一比例也相当稳定，约为 25%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d5a744acc5b9127739e42a3a9be48e\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"319\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: September 2018 Investor Day Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2018年9月投资者日演讲</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Filings show that OCF Yield and OCF were 26% & $3.4 billion in FY19, 25% & $4.3 billion in FY20 and 23% and $4.8 billion in FY21 such that the OCF yield consistency continues.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>文件显示，OCF收益率和OCF在2019财年为26%和34亿美元，在2020财年为25%和43亿美元，在2021财年为23%和48亿美元，因此OCF收益率的一致性仍在继续。</i></blockquote></p><p> Each margin tells us something different. GAAP and non-GAAP operating margins are in the financial statements for any given year. The third type of margin is the unit economic margin which is based on subscription economics such that the lifetime of a customer is included over multiple fiscal years instead of just a single year. The income statement on the FY21 10-K shows GAAP operating income directly and the numbers in footnotes [1] and [2] are used for non-GAAP operating income:</p><p><blockquote>每个边距都告诉我们一些不同的东西。GAAP 和非 GAAP 营业利润率均包含在任何特定年份的财务报表中。第三种类型的利润是单位经济利润，它基于订阅经济学，因此客户的生命周期包括多个财政年度，而不仅仅是一个财政年度。2021 财年 10-K 的损益表直接显示 GAAP 经营利润，脚注 [1] 和 [2] 中的数字用于非 GAAP 经营利润：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d9174613e9191243a04e9ff17b354c8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: FY21 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021财年10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see that in FY21, the GAAP operating margin was 2.1% based on operating income of $455 million divided by revenue of $21.3 billion and the non-GAAP operating margin was 17.7% based on operating income of nearly $3.8 billion divided by revenue of $21.3 billion per the 4Q21 release. The difference between GAAP and non-GAAP in FY21 is the $1.1 billion in business combination amortization and $2.2 billion in stock-based compensation. In other words, the release adds the stock-based compensation and business combination amortization from the income statement footnotes such that we have a clearer picture of the non-GAAP operating income:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，在 2021 财年，基于 4.55 亿美元的经营利润除以 213 亿美元的收入，GAAP 营业利润率为 2.1%；基于近 38 亿美元的经营利润除以 213 亿美元的收入，非 GAAP 营业利润率为 17.7%2021 年第四季度发布的收入。2021 财年 GAAP 和非 GAAP 之间的差异在于 11 亿美元的企业合并摊销和 22 亿美元的股票薪酬。换句话说，该新闻稿从损益表脚注中添加了基于股票的薪酬和业务合并摊销，以便我们对非 GAAP 经营利润有更清晰的了解：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f97cbc39fedfc59780629f59593ea000\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: 4Q21 release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021年第四季度发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 3rd type of margin is from subscription unit economics. In this case, estimates are made about the lifetime value of customers spanning multiple fiscal years in the future. In other words, when we look at subscription unit economic margins, they are apples and oranges to the margins based on current fiscal filings as subscription economics contain the lifetime revenue and expenses over many years as opposed to any single fiscal year. The first part of subscription unit economics is the lifetime revenue value. Suppose we have a company whose first-year revenue is $1 with a high attrition rate of 50%. The lifetime revenue value starts out as follows:</p><p><blockquote>第三种类型的利润来自订阅单位经济学。在这种情况下，对客户未来多个财政年度的终身价值进行估计。换句话说，当我们查看订阅单位经济利润率时，根据当前的财政文件，它们与利润率相比是苹果和橙子，因为订阅经济包含多年的终身收入和支出，而不是任何一个财政年度。订阅单位经济学的第一部分是终身收入价值。假设我们有一家公司，第一年的收入是1美元，流失率高达50%。终身收入价值开始如下：</blockquote></p><p> year 1: $1.00</p><p><blockquote>第一年：1.00美元</blockquote></p><p> year 2: $0.50</p><p><blockquote>第二年：0.50美元</blockquote></p><p> year 3: $0.25</p><p><blockquote>第三年：0.25美元</blockquote></p><p> After 3 years, we have $1.75 and if we keep going then eventually we get close to another $0.25. It's a geometric series that can be approximated as first-year revenue divided by attrition. $1 divided by 50% comes out to $2 of lifetime revenue.</p><p><blockquote>3年后，我们有1.75美元，如果我们继续下去，最终我们会接近另一个0.25美元。这是一个几何级数，可以近似为第一年收入除以减员。1美元除以50%等于2美元的终身收入。</blockquote></p><p> The September 2015 Investor Day Presentation has a simple example without incremental annual recurring revenue (\"ARR\") that shows how near-term profitability can be sacrificed when thinking about lifetime unit margins. We have Acme Cloud which has $1 in first-year revenue, 25% attrition, a cost to book (\"CTB\") of $0.50 and a cost to serve (\"CTS\") of 75%. The lifetime revenue approaches first-year revenue divided by attrition or $1 divided by 25% which is $4. The CTS is 75% of this or $3. The unit income is lifetime revenue less CTB less CTS which comes to $0.50 and the lifetime unit margin is 12.5% or $0.50/$4. Acme has several options available. Option 1 is a proposal that lowers attrition 5% by increasing the CTS 2%. Option 2 is a proposal that targets enterprise customers who have a longer selling cycle and an elevated CTB but they also have a lower attrition rate. Both proposals are good in the long run as the lifetime unit margin goes up from 12.5% to 13% but both proposals put pressure on near-term margins:</p><p><blockquote>2015年9月投资者日演示有一个简单的例子，没有增量年度经常性收入（“ARR”），显示了在考虑终身单位利润率时如何牺牲近期盈利能力。我们有Acme Cloud，它的第一年收入为1美元，流失率为25%，预订成本（“CTB”）为0.50美元，服务成本（“CTS”）为75%。终身收入等于第一年收入除以损耗，或者1美元除以25%，即4美元。CTS是这个的75%或3美元。单位收入是终身收入减去CTB减去CTS，即0.50美元，终身单位利润率为12.5%或0.50美元/4美元。Acme有几种选择。方案 1 是一项通过将 CTS 提高 2% 来降低 5% 的建议。方案 2 是针对销售周期较长、CTB 较高但流失率较低的企业客户的提案。从长远来看，这两项提案都是好的，因为终身单位利润率从 12.5% 上升至 13%，但这两项提案都给近期利润率带来了压力：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ddd473c926ef80d67285c81023b1e88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: September 2015 Investor Day</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2015年9月投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The December 2020 Investor Day transcript reveals what SVP Evan Goldstein thinks about subscription economics including incremental ARR:</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 12 月投资者日记录揭示了高级副总裁 Evan Goldstein 对订阅经济学（包括增量 ARR）的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Subscription economics relies on 3 metrics: attrition, cost to book and cost to serve. We calculate lifetime revenue by one divided by attrition. Our <b>cost of book is our sales and marketing expenses</b> divided by incremental ARR. And then our <b>cost to serve is all the other expenses</b> related to supporting that revenue divided by your lifetime revenue. There are 4 major income statement lines that get us down from revenue towards operating income and in most years, adding/subtracting investment income, interest expense and taxes from operating income gets us close to net income, the first figure in the cash flow statement. These 4 major income statement lines are cost of revenue or cost of goods sold (\"COGS\"), research and development (\"R&D\"), marketing and sales (\"S&M\") and general and administrative (\"G&A\"). CTB is S&M while the other income statement lines are CTS per the subscription economics slide below from the November 2017 Investor Day Presentation:</p><p><blockquote>订阅经济学依赖于三个指标：流失、预订成本和服务成本。我们用1除以损耗来计算终身收入。我们的<b>图书成本是我们的销售和营销费用</b>除以增量ARR。然后我们的<b>服务成本是所有其他费用</b>与支持收入除以你一生的收入有关。有4个主要的损益表行使我们从收入到经营利润，在大多数年份，加上/减去经营利润的投资收入、利息支出和税收使我们接近净利润，即现金流量表中的第一个数字。该四个主要损益表项目为收入成本或销售成本（“成本”）、研发（“研发”）、市场推广及销售（“S&M”）以及一般及行政（“G&A”）。根据以下 2017 年 11 月投资者日演示文稿中的认购经济幻灯片，CTB 为 S&M，而其他损益表项目为 CTS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e110ea12c4d73e5eb9a5d1f2d39698f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: November 2017 Investor Day Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2017年11月投资者日演讲</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This slide from the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation is another way of visualizing the same concept. CTB is made of S&M and both these labels favor beige whereas the CTS label and its profit and loss (\"P&L\") statement lines are more of an aquamarine color:</p><p><blockquote>这张来自 2020 年 12 月投资者日演示的幻灯片是可视化同一概念的另一种方式。CTB 由 S&M 制成，这两个标签都偏向米色，而 CTS 标签及其损益表（“损益表”）行则更偏向海蓝宝石色：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20a25e426effbd54221726fde4321e20\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: December 2020 Investor Day</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2020年12月投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SVP Goldstein reveals that unit economics improved from FY17 to FY21 as declines in attrition more than offset the rise in CTB. CTS flattened and then declined as efficiencies in G&A were found. CTB has increased as they are selling a wide variety of products and workflows in multiple countries such that the portfolio is now broader. This sophistication creates more engagement for customers and attrition falls as Salesforce becomes stickier. SVP Goldstein goes on to explain that unit lifetime economic margins have gone from the mid-30s all the way up to 40% now:</p><p><blockquote>SVP Goldstein透露，从2017财年到2021财年，单位经济效益有所改善，因为减员的下降足以抵消CTB的上升。随着G&A中的效率被发现，CTS变平，然后下降。随着CTB在多个国家销售各种各样的产品和工作流程，CTB的业务也随之增长，因此产品组合现在更加广泛。这种复杂性为客户创造了更多的参与度，随着Salesforce变得更具粘性，流失率下降。SVP Goldstein 继续解释说，单位生命周期经济利润率已从 30 年代中期一路上升到现在的 40%：</blockquote></p><p> When we started talking to you, we talked about mid-30s. Last year, we updated you that we'd be at about 40%. Now we expect FY '21 to have some slight pressure as it relates to the pandemic. We shared with you earlier this year, we expect attrition to increase, but we believe this will be transitory over time and expect to get back to 40%. However, our decisions to maximize for subscription economics has created some impact on the short-term income statement. <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7fbc72952d7832066e0f2af720aed2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: December 2020 Investor Day</span></p><p><blockquote>当我们开始和你说话时，我们谈论的是30多岁。去年，我们告知您，我们的比例约为 40%。现在，我们预计 21 财年将面临一些轻微的压力，因为它与疫情有关。我们今年早些时候与您分享过，我们预计流失率将会增加，但我们相信随着时间的推移，这将是暂时的，预计会恢复到 40%。然而，我们最大限度地提高订阅经济性的决定对短期损益表产生了一些影响。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2020年12月投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I don't think unit economic margins will stop at 40%. There should be more upside in the next 5 years. This is what SVP Goldstein said about the ceiling at the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation:</p><p><blockquote>我认为单位经济利润率不会止步于 40%。未来5年应该会有更多的上升空间。以下是 SVP Goldstein 在 2020 年 12 月投资者日演讲中对上限的评价：</blockquote></p><p> We definitely think there's upside to that number, and it's about finding efficiencies in CTB, CTS and attrition. Obviously, in the short term, as I've mentioned in my presentation, we're focused on investing in CTB to sort of get every dollar of ARR, but there can potentially be upside as we think about those metrics. The bridge between GAAP and non-GAAP margins is clear; acquisition based amortization and stock-based-compensation are straightforward. I don't have a clear bridge between non-GAAP margins and unit economic margins but we do know that both exclude the impact of stock-based compensation and acquisition amortization. It is definitely beneficial that the unit economic margin has been rising over the years. Net cash provided by operating activities on the cash flow statement has some similarities to non-GAAP operating income in that both can be calculated from existing financial statements and both do not subtract amortization and stock-based compensation from revenue. We know that some of the FY21 numbers between the revenue of $21.3 billion and the net cash provided by operating activities of $4.8 billion are tied to revenue growth investments. I often think about what the net cash provided by operating activities would be if revenue wasn't growing. Likewise, I think about what things will look like when revenue reaches $50 billion. Revenue should still be growing substantially at that point so the net cash provided by operating activities number on the cash flow statement will be different from the number we would see without revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>我们绝对认为这个数字有好处，这关系到 CTB、CTS 和减员的效率。显然，在短期内，正如我在演讲中提到的，我们专注于投资 CTB，以获得每一美元的 ARR，但当我们考虑这些指标时，可能会有潜在的上升空间。GAAP 和非 GAAP 利润率之间的桥梁很明显；基于收购的摊销和基于股票的补偿很简单。我在非 GAAP 利润率和单位经济利润率之间没有明确的桥梁，但我们知道两者都排除了基于股票的薪酬和收购摊销的影响。单位经济利润率多年来一直在上升，这绝对是有益的。现金流量表中经营活动提供的净现金与非 GAAP 经营利润有一些相似之处，因为两者都可以根据现有财务报表计算，并且都不会从收入中减去摊销和基于股票的薪酬。我们知道，2021财年213亿美元的收入和48亿美元的经营活动提供的净现金之间的一些数字与收入增长投资有关。我经常思考，如果收入没有增长，经营活动提供的净现金会是多少。同样，我也在思考当收入达到 500 亿美元时会是什么样子。届时收入仍应大幅增长，因此现金流量表上的经营活动数字提供的净现金将与我们在没有收入增长的情况下看到的数字不同。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Eventually the landscape should change such that investing aggressively for annual revenue growth doesn't make as much sense. At that point S&M as a percentage of revenue should decline and the operating margin should rise. A November 2020writeupquotes Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss talking about this tradeoff, saying operating margins can get to 28% in 5 years and 33% in 10 years:</p><p><blockquote>最终，格局应该会发生变化，以至于积极投资以实现年收入增长就没有那么大意义了。届时，S&M 占收入的百分比应该会下降，而营业利润率应该会上升。2020 年 11 月的一篇文章引用了摩根士丹利分析师基思·韦斯 (Keith Weiss) 谈到这一权衡，称营业利润率在 5 年内可以达到 28%，在 10 年内可以达到 33%：</blockquote></p><p> \"The good news is our updated [software-as-a-service] X-ray suggests Salesforce currently has the unit economics to drive operating margins to 28% in 5 years (based on our growth estimates) and 33% in 10 years, as growth slows towards 10%,\" Weiss said. The December 2020 Investor Day Presentation shows operating cash flow going from $1.6 billion in FY16 to what they then estimated to be $4.9 billion for FY21 which is a CAGR of over 25%. The actual operating cash flow number for FY21 turned out to be $4.8 billion. Cash flow discussions come in the 4Q calls and the growth has been enormous over the last 3 years. Capex as a percentage of revenue has fallen significantly over the years. The10-Kfor FY14 shows capex was 7.3% of revenue or $299 million/$4.07 billion. By FY21, the 10-K shows it was just 3.3% of revenue or $710 million/$21.25 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“好消息是，我们更新的[软件即服务] X 光表明，Salesforce 目前具有将营业利润率在 5 年内提升至 28%（基于我们的增长预测），在 10 年内提升至 33%，因为增长放缓至 10%，”韦斯说。2020 年 12 月投资者日演示显示，运营现金流从 2016 财年的 16 亿美元增加到 2021 财年的 49 亿美元，CAGR 超过 25%。2021 财年的实际运营现金流为 48 亿美元。现金流讨论在第四季度评级中进行，过去3年的增长是巨大的。多年来，资本支出占收入的百分比大幅下降。10-KFOR 2014 财年显示资本支出占收入的 7.3%，即 2.99 亿美元/40.7 亿美元。到 2021 财年，10-K 显示仅占收入的 3.3%，即 7.1 亿美元/212.5 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c846999744311d81026f0e7ffd240fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: FY21 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021财年10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the December 2020 Wells Fargo TMT Conference, CFO Hawkins noted that their acquisitions tend to dilute margins because they often acquire companies that are just getting started such that they are losing money on the revenue that is generated. The key point is that Salesforce knows how to take these assets that are dilutive at first and grow their revenue in such a way that profits come in the long run:</p><p><blockquote>在 2020 年 12 月的富国银行 TMT 会议上，首席财务官霍金斯指出，他们的收购往往会稀释利润率，因为他们经常收购刚刚起步的公司，以至于他们在产生的收入上亏损。关键在于，Salesforce 知道如何利用这些起初具有稀释性的资产，并以长期盈利的方式增加收入：</blockquote></p><p> Our track record, our feedback on M&A has been well. It's been good. Take a look at <b>ExactTarget, take a look at Demandware, take a look at MuleSoft, take a look at Tableau</b>, and you're going to -- I always tell people there's a test at the end, we need to perform. But when you look back on that, again, I want to underscore, why do I say that as the CFO? Well, in FY '14, we made 8.9% operating margin, where we just came off a $4 billion a year. Today, the guide is roughly $21 billion in a couple of weeks, and there'll be -- obviously, the next year, you're talking north of $25 billion. And what are we doing? Our operating margin this year, the guide is effectively 17.6%. Okay, progress, better, better never done. But here's the key point, you know the attributes of each of these assets that we took on board. They were smaller, right? <b>They lost money, most of them. They are getting started</b>. In the 2Q22 call, it was revealed that the FY22 operating cash flow guidance growth would be 21% to 22% were it not for the dilutive cash flow impact of Slack and Acumen. FY21 revenue was $21.3 billion. Getting to $50 billion in 4.5 years by FY26 implies a CAGR of a little over 20%. I think operating cash flow can grow at a CAGR of nearly 23% such that it goes from $4.8 billion to about $12 billion. If capex is 2.5% of revenue at that point then it should be around $1.25 billion such that FCF is around $10.75 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们的业绩记录，我们对并购的反馈一直很好。很好。看看<b>ExactTarget，看看Demandware，看看MuleSoft，看看Tableau</b>你要--我总是告诉人们最后有一个测试，我们需要表演。但当你回过头来看这个问题时，我想再次强调，作为首席财务官，我为什么要这么说？2014 财年，我们的营业利润率为 8.9%，每年仅盈利 40 亿美元。今天，该指南将在几周内达到大约 210 亿美元，而且显然，明年，你谈论的是 250 亿美元以上。我们在做什么？我们今年的营业利润率指导实际上是17.6%。好吧，进步，更好，更好从未做过。但关键点是，您知道我们携带的每种资产的属性。它们更小，对吗？<b>他们赔钱了，大部分。他们开始了</b>.在2022年第二季度的看涨期权中显示，如果没有Slack和Acumen的稀释现金流影响，2022财年的经营现金流指导增长将为21%至22%。2021 财年收入为 213 亿美元。到 26 财年，4.5 年内达到 500 亿美元意味着 CAGR 略高于 20%。我认为经营现金流可以以近 23% 的复合年增长率增长，从 48 亿美元增加到约 120 亿美元。如果当时资本支出占收入的2.5%，那么它应该在12.5亿美元左右，因此自由现金流约为107.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I treat stock-based compensation as a cash expense so my adjusted FCF number would normally be lower than this. However, growth investments in S&M largely offset the stock-based compensation consideration. If the market values Salesforce at 35x FCF at this time then it should be worth about $375 billion. This is where I see things on the low end seeing as management can be circumspect with guidance. On the high end, I think revenue can be $55 billion in FY26 and operating cash flow can grow at a CAGR of nearly 27% to reach $14 billion. Capex could be as little as 2% of revenue for $1.1 billion such that FCF is $12.9 billion. 35x this amount is about $450 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我将基于股票的薪酬视为现金支出，因此我调整后的自由现金流数字通常会低于这个数字。然而，对 S&M 的增长投资在很大程度上抵消了基于股票的薪酬考虑。如果此时 Salesforce 的市场估值为 35 倍 FCF，那么它的价值应该约为 3750 亿美元。这是我看到低端事情的地方，因为管理层可以谨慎地指导。在高端方面，我认为 26 财年的收入可能达到 550 亿美元，运营现金流可能以近 27% 的复合年增长率增长，达到 140 亿美元。资本支出可能低至 11 亿美元收入的 2%，因此自由现金流为 129 亿美元。这个数额的35倍约为4500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking at the 2Q22 balance sheet in the 10-Q filing, the enterprise value is about $1.7 billion more than the market cap due to $10.6 billion in long-term debt, $2.9 billion in long-term leases, $0.7 billion in short-term leases and $1.3 billion in Slack notes, partially offset by $6.3 billion in cash and equivalents plus $3.4 billion in marketable securities plus $4.1 billion in strategic investments. But we are using a FCF framework for valuation where debt and leases are already accounted for as they lower FCF. In FY21, interest expense was the primary component of the $64 million \"other expense\" line. And in the cash flow statement we see that FY21 operating cash flow was lowered by $830 million due to operating lease liabilities. I just look at the market cap for the valuation framework. The 2Q22 10-Q says there were approximately 979 million shares outstanding as of August 25, 2021. The September 10th share price was $257.20 implying a market cap of nearly $252 billion.</p><p><blockquote>查看 10 季度文件中的2022年第二季度资产负债表，由于长期债务 106 亿美元、长期租赁 29 亿美元、短期租赁 7 亿美元和 13 亿美元的闲置票据，企业价值比市值高出约 17 亿美元，部分被 63 亿美元现金及等价物加上 34 亿美元有价证券加上 41 亿美元战略投资所抵消。但我们使用自由现金流框架进行估值，其中债务和租赁已经被考虑在内，因为它们降低了自由现金流。在 2021 财年，利息支出是 6,400 万美元“其他费用”项目的主要组成部分。在现金流量表中，我们看到，由于经营租赁负债，2021财年经营现金流减少了8.3亿美元。我只是看看估值框架的市值。2022年第二季度 10-Q 表示，截至 2021 年 8 月 25 日，约有 9.79 亿股流通股。9 月 10 日的股价为 257.20 美元，意味着市值接近 2520 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Again, today's market cap is almost $255 billion. If it grows to $375 billion in 4 and a half years at the end of FY26 then the 4.5 year CAGR is almost 9%. If it grows to $450 billion in 4 and a half years at the end of FY26 then the CAGR is a little over 13%. If there were no dilution then I think we'd see an outcome somewhere in between such that the stock has a CAGR between 9% and 13% over the next 4 and a half years. There will be some dilution so the CAGR range could be a bit lower, especially if the dilution comes from acquisitions that fail to speed up the $50 billion revenue target.</p><p><blockquote>同样，今天的市值接近2550亿美元。如果在 26 财年末的 4 年半时间内增长到 3750 亿美元，那么 4.5 年的复合年增长率几乎为 9%。如果在 26 财年末的 4 年半时间内增长到 4500 亿美元，那么 CAGR 将略高于 13%。如果没有稀释，那么我认为我们会看到介于两者之间的结果，即该股在未来 4 年半的复合年增长率在 9% 到 13% 之间。将会有一些稀释，因此CAGR范围可能会低一点，特别是如果稀释来自未能加快500亿美元收入目标的收购。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454848-salesforce-a-wonderful-company-at-a-reasonable-price\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454848-salesforce-a-wonderful-company-at-a-reasonable-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164835747","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe flexible approach at Salesforce is a competitive advantage as they help companies shift to the cloud.\nThe AppExchange ecosystem increases engagement and lowers attrition.\nCapex as a percentage of revenue fell from 7.3% in fiscal ‘14 to 3.3% in fiscal ‘21.\n\nStephen Lam/Getty Images News\nIntroduction\nMy thesis is that Salesforce (CRM) is a wonderful company at a reasonable price. We are still in the early days as software continues shifting to the cloud. Much of the profitability for Salesforce is obfuscated by growth investments. In the 4Q20 call, it was revealed that returns for shareholders reached 4,000% since going public in 2004.\nCEO Marc Benioff has said that the way to understand the future is to look at the past. Written in 2009,Behind the Cloudis an excellent resource that helps explain how Salesforce laid their foundation and it is cited throughout this article.\nSeeing as the fiscal year goes through January, I think of the fiscal year as being equal to the calendar year plus one for the first three quarters. The fourth quarter is an exception as it is the only quarter that closes within the calendar year. In other words, calendar '21 is fiscal '22 for the first three quarters.\nFlexibility\nSalesforce is flexible, both with the needs of their customers and their own needs. From the beginning, they recognized that it was time to adapt to a new world where buying software would be like buying products on Amazon without the need for upgrades and updates. Meanwhile rigid incumbents like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) continued to develop software as if the internet didn't exist. Salesforce embraces APIs such that companies can adopt a wide array of technology options. They provide the right optionality for companies as the world moves to subscriptions and direct-to-consumer (\"D2C\") relationships. Salesforce is limber when it comes to looking at their own requirements such as their infrastructure needs.\nSalesforce makes it easy for companies to adopt the latest technology options. The importance of using APIs for integration was a giant step in their evolution per Behind the Cloud:\n\n We made a significant leap in the technology when we offered integration capabilities by providing an application programming interface (\"API\"), or a way for salesforce.com to communicate with other programs. This transformed our product and technology so that the data in salesforce.com were not isolated in Web silos, but could interact with other data that were behind the firewall or on other Web sites. The API, for example, allowed salesforce.com to interface with Google Maps, so salespeople could instantly access a map of where all their customers were located.\n\n\n [\n Behind the Cloud: Location: 1,881]\n\nAnswering a question at the September 2017 Deutsche Bank Conference, Product EVP Mike Rosenbaum notes that Tesla (TSLA) has a continual relationship with customers by providing software updates. He notes that this is the type of thinking companies need to embrace and that Salesforce helps companies be malleable such that they can maintain direct relationships with customers:\n\n You take for example a company like Dollar Shave Club where instead of selling razors, I'm going to sell a subscription model so that every period of time, you get some razors delivered to you. That's the idea, I think, is where you start to - I think, every company in the world, whether it's brand manufacturing or anyone, needs to start to think about their business model a little bit more like a subscription service. And I think that is the very, very powerful idea that is made possible by CRM systems like Salesforce. We make that -- we make the technology barrier to implementing a model like that go away, to a large degree.\n\nYears ago Salesforce started out with their own data centers in California, Virginia and Singapore but they kept an open mind and reevaluated infrastructure decisions as time went by. Rather than opening their own data centers in new markets like Canada and Australia, they opted to go with Amazon's (AMZN) AWS. In addition to the close relationship with AWS, a partnership with Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) was discussed at the November 2017 Investor Day. Having 3 parts to it, the Google partnership includes Google Analytics, G Suite and some infrastructure on Google Cloud Platform (\"GCP\").\nAppExchange Ecosystem\nAppExchange is the world's leading enterprise cloud ecosystem with over 3,000 apps and components. Per the faq, they have 117,000 customer reviews and 9 million installs. At the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation, President & COO Bret Taylor said AppExchange is one of the main competitive advantages for Salesforce, noting the million-plus weekly active developers on Slack. Back in 2005 CEO Benioff pointed out that AppExchange was groundbreaking.Behind the Cloudtalks about the significance of becoming a platform noting that traditional software companies like Siebel and SAP didn't make the right types of capital investments to empower their partners:\n\n One of the most pivotal decisions we made as a company was to make our code available to let other companies build their own complementary online services. This idea to become a platform, or an operating system for the Internet (similar to how Windows is an operating system for PCs), offered a way to allow everyone to create applications online and gave us an opportunity to attract and \n retain more customers.\n\n\n [\n Behind the Cloud: Location: 1,895]\n\nVeeva (VEEV) helps life science companies shift to the cloud and their payments to Salesforce are part of their cost of revenues line on the income statement. They were an early Independent Software Vendor (\"ISV\") and they have grown over the years such that their market cap is now close to $50 billion. Per their filings, Veeva has a value-added reseller agreement with Salesforce for a cumulative $500 million from March 2014 to September 2025 which they will fulfill easily as there is only $57 million remaining.\nIt was simple to see the potential for AWS years ago when Netflix (NFLX) announced they were using them for their media content. The same thing is happening in banking as old thought processes are shifting and resources are being allocated to AppExchange banking leader nCino (NCNO). At a June 2018 Evercore ISI event, nCino Executive Director of Global Market Strategy Jim Baxley talked about the way banks are moving to the cloud seeing as they don't want to build their own data centers anymore and they don't want to have armies of developers.\nDocuSign(NASDAQ:DOCU) COO Scott Olrich spoke about the relationship with Salesforce at DocuSign's March 2021 Virtual Financial Analyst Day. DocuSign Gen is a lightweight tool that allows reps to generate a contract from inside of Salesforce. The Salesforce sales team helps sell these products and there is a specialized version for quotes and billing.\nThe November 2017 Investor Day Presentation shows ISV with a revenue run rate of $310 million such that it was 17% of the Platform & Other Revenue at that time:\nImage Source: November 2017 Investor Day Presentation\nI value the AppExchange platform more for the way that it lowers attrition through increased innovation, utility and engagement than for the revenue it generates directly.\nSuccessful Acquisitions\nHaving a flexible and collaborative mindset, Salesforce has a history of giving subsidiaries the right environment to continue with innovation and revenue growth after being acquired. Other software giants have a more rigid mindset such that their acquisitions don't work out the right way. At the October 2006 Dreamforce Investor Summit, Worldwide Sales and Distribution President Jim Steele talked about the fact that Siebel's innovation stagnated after being acquired by Oracle.\nThe acquisitions of ExactTarget, ClickSoftware and Vlocity were very important for Salesforce despite the fact that there have been others at higher price tags. ExactTarget was acquired in 2013 to help Salesforce become number one in marketing. An August 2019 diginomica writeup notes that much of Salesforce's Field Service Lightning software was licensed and originally written by ClickSoftware developers. Bringing ClickSoftware in-house bolstered the Service and Platform offerings. Vlocity was built on the Salesforce platform and their acquisition was finalized in June 2020. They strengthen Salesforce's Service offering. At the September 2020 RBC Tour, Salesforce Industries Division CEO David Schmaier talked about Vlocity's approach noting that they serve regulated industries including communications, insurance, health, government, energy and media.\nA June 2021 article from Fortune mentions the biggest acquisitions as follows:\nDemandware: Price: $2.8 billion - June 2016\nMulesoft: Price: $6.5 billion - March 2018\nTableau: Price: $15.7 billion - June 2019\nSlack: Price: $27.7 billion - December 2020 (deal announced)\nDemandware is the key part of Salesforce's Commerce offering while Tableau is essential for the Analytics offering and MuleSoft powers the Integration offering. The importance of Tableau and MuleSoft was made evident in the 1Q22 cal lwhen it was revealed that Tableau was in 8 of the top 10 new deals and MuleSoft was in 5 of the 10.\nAt the June 2019 Tableau call, CEO Benioff talks about the fact that traditional enterprise software companies are unaccommodating when it comes to new technology. The reputation of flexibility at Salesforce is a big factor when it comes to acquisitions:\n\n There is a question of, well, gee, MuleSoft really is all about connecting to an ecosystem of data and connects to lots of different data sources like SAP, Microsoft and Amazon and Google and Workday and ServiceNow and so many companies, and how do you plan to address that? And it was kind of a shock to me actually because when I have the question, it was kind of like somehow people think that we wouldn't connect to those companies or wouldn't support all those companies or that we would do something to cut them off.\n\nThe November 2019 Investor Day Presentation notes the success of revenue growth with 3 prominent acquisitions. Acquired in July 2013 with annual revenue of $286 million, ExactTarget grew its revenue to $1,450 million in 6 years. Demandware was purchased in July 2016 and they had revenue of $227 million at the time which grew to $590 million in 3 years. MuleSoft was acquired in May 2018 when they had revenue of $284 million and this grew to $665 million in a short time.\nDisrupting Incumbents\nThe CRM market was fragmented before Salesforce entered the picture. Small companies often used ACT, medium sized companies used Microsoft (MSFT) and large companies went with Siebel, SAP or Peoplesoft.Behind the Cloudreveals that small, medium and large businesses have heterogeneous preferences and the dogma at the time was that they couldn't all be served by a single company:\n\n When we started salesforce.com, companies sold separate software systems to small, medium, and large companies. We wanted to change that and provide everyone with the same affordable and effective service. For as long as I can remember, people told us we couldn't serve all markets - they told us that it could not be done.\n\n\n [\n Behind the Cloud: Location: 1,643]\n\nSalesforce became a democratizing tool by using the internet to provide the same services to small companies that were only available to large enterprises in the past. Over time they began serving more of the large companies and this disrupted incumbents like Oracle and SAP. The September 2015 Investor Day Presentation shows that SAP had 14.3% CRM market share in FY11 followed by Oracle at 12.6% and Salesforce at 10.6%. It reveals that Salesforce passed both companies within a year or two of FY11 and had a comfortable lead by FY15. The December 2020 Investor Day Presentation shows Salesforce up to 19.8% CRM market share by 2020H1, well ahead of Oracle at just 5.3% and SAP at a mere 4.8%.\nAt the September 2006 Citigroup Global Technology Conference, CEO Benioff talks about SAP's obstinance:\n\n But SAP has not changed. They are basically just selling the same stuff that they had 10 years ago -- single-tenant architecture, license fees -- same business model, same technology model, running their business the same way. They talk about on-demand -- all on-demand to them is moving their database from one datacenter to another datacenter. It is not multitenancy. They don't even believe in multitenancy. They say they don't believe in multitenancy.\n\nUnlike incumbents who rely on maintenance contracts, Salesforce wanted to do away with packaged software and make things as easy as buying products on Amazon. This is well explained inBehind the Cloud:\n\n We wanted to take advantage of a new platform - the Internet - and deliver business applications cheaply through a Web site that was as easy to use as Amazon.com. We had to think out of the box. Literally, no more packaged software. And figuratively, as no one was then selling subscriptions for business applications and delivering them over the Web.\n\n\n [\n Behind the Cloud: Location: 3,702]\n\nCEO Benioff discusses inflexible thinking in the 2Q16callsaying that Oracle and SAP still sell old technology similar to the way that IBM still sells mainframes:\n\n And that's what you see with companies like Oracle and SAP. These are old technology bases that are meandering along like mainframes. And I think that is reflected exactly as you said, in their license revenue growth which has been poor. And in \n their movement to the cloud has been stunted because they don't want to shift those customers into new models, exactly why IBM lost the PC business because they were too afraid to let go of the mainframe. It's the past replaying itself, but instead of IBM you've got Oracle and SAP basically running the same playbook.\n\nPresident & Chief Product Officer David Schmaier cites The Innovator's Dilemma at the September 2020 RBC Tour saying Salesforce is here to disrupt on-premise competitors:\n\n And the very simple way to sell against those vendors is it's faster to deploy, it's easier to use. And oh, by the way, if you look at the total cost of ownership, it actually costs less money, too. So even I can sell that. Let me think about that again. It's faster, it's easier and it costs less money. And it's constantly refreshed in the cloud. And so it's just way better than that old on-premise world. And so we like to find \n markets where we're disrupting legacy competitors is kind of the - I think that's the perfect storm. It doesn't mean we wouldn't go into a space where there is another cloud competitor, but it's easier and faster if that's not the case.\n\nDeclining Attrition\nThe November 2019 Investor Day Presentation shows that attrition has declined significantly from about 21% in FY10 to less than 10% in FY20:\nImage Source: November 2019 Investor Day Presentation\nOne of the reasons for the declining attrition is that Salesforce is the first software company to provide CRM and other offerings in the cloud at scale. Another key factor is the AppExchange where increased innovation, utility and overall engagement lead to lower attrition. Acquisitions have led to today's multi-cloud environment which is also good for increasing engagement and lowering attrition.\nRevenue Growth\nDeclining attrition has made it much easier for Salesforce to increase revenue. Looking at the last 7 years, subscription and support revenue growth has been prodigious, going from about $5 billion in FY15 all the way up to around $20 billion by FY21. Note that the Platform and Other offering includes the Integration and Analytics offerings. Professional services and other revenue is not shown here and it was up to $1.3 billion by 2021:\nImage Source: author's spreadsheet from 10-K filings\nRevenue growth should continue as the total addressable market (\"TAM\") expands to $175 billion by fiscal '25 per the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation. Below we see key logos tied to offerings. Analytics has Tableau, Integration has MuleSoft, and Platform has Lightning from a slide in. Also, the Marketing offering favors the ExactTarget color scheme and Commerce offering favors the Demandware color scheme:\nImage Source: December 2020 Investor Day\nValuation\nThe December 2020 Investor Day Presentation shows annual revenue reaching $50 billion or more by FY26 and I like to think about what the overall valuation will be at that point. CFO Hawkins notes that this $50 billion target includes Slack revenue but not revenue from any upcoming acquisitions. The numbers in the actual income statement and cash flow statement are a key consideration as well as the numbers that would be in place if the business was run for more of a steady-state environment with annual revenue growth in the low-single digits.\nIt's easier to articulate my FY26 thoughts by starting with current numbers and margins. We have the following margins forFY21:\nGAAP operating margin: 2.1%\nnon-GAAP operating margin: 17.7%\nunit economic margin: 39%[December 2020 estimate]\nI also think about the operating cash flow (\"OCF\") yield in a similar manner as the margins above. Per the September 2018 Investor Day Presentation, it has been fairly consistent over the years at about 25%, even with the dilutive effect of acquisitions:\nImage Source: September 2018 Investor Day Presentation\nFilings show that OCF Yield and OCF were 26% & $3.4 billion in FY19, 25% & $4.3 billion in FY20 and 23% and $4.8 billion in FY21 such that the OCF yield consistency continues.\nEach margin tells us something different. GAAP and non-GAAP operating margins are in the financial statements for any given year. The third type of margin is the unit economic margin which is based on subscription economics such that the lifetime of a customer is included over multiple fiscal years instead of just a single year. The income statement on the FY21 10-K shows GAAP operating income directly and the numbers in footnotes [1] and [2] are used for non-GAAP operating income:\nImage Source: FY21 10-K\nWe see that in FY21, the GAAP operating margin was 2.1% based on operating income of $455 million divided by revenue of $21.3 billion and the non-GAAP operating margin was 17.7% based on operating income of nearly $3.8 billion divided by revenue of $21.3 billion per the 4Q21 release. The difference between GAAP and non-GAAP in FY21 is the $1.1 billion in business combination amortization and $2.2 billion in stock-based compensation. In other words, the release adds the stock-based compensation and business combination amortization from the income statement footnotes such that we have a clearer picture of the non-GAAP operating income:\nImage Source: 4Q21 release\nThe 3rd type of margin is from subscription unit economics. In this case, estimates are made about the lifetime value of customers spanning multiple fiscal years in the future. In other words, when we look at subscription unit economic margins, they are apples and oranges to the margins based on current fiscal filings as subscription economics contain the lifetime revenue and expenses over many years as opposed to any single fiscal year. The first part of subscription unit economics is the lifetime revenue value. Suppose we have a company whose first-year revenue is $1 with a high attrition rate of 50%. The lifetime revenue value starts out as follows:\nyear 1: $1.00\nyear 2: $0.50\nyear 3: $0.25\nAfter 3 years, we have $1.75 and if we keep going then eventually we get close to another $0.25. It's a geometric series that can be approximated as first-year revenue divided by attrition. $1 divided by 50% comes out to $2 of lifetime revenue.\nThe September 2015 Investor Day Presentation has a simple example without incremental annual recurring revenue (\"ARR\") that shows how near-term profitability can be sacrificed when thinking about lifetime unit margins. We have Acme Cloud which has $1 in first-year revenue, 25% attrition, a cost to book (\"CTB\") of $0.50 and a cost to serve (\"CTS\") of 75%. The lifetime revenue approaches first-year revenue divided by attrition or $1 divided by 25% which is $4. The CTS is 75% of this or $3. The unit income is lifetime revenue less CTB less CTS which comes to $0.50 and the lifetime unit margin is 12.5% or $0.50/$4. Acme has several options available. Option 1 is a proposal that lowers attrition 5% by increasing the CTS 2%. Option 2 is a proposal that targets enterprise customers who have a longer selling cycle and an elevated CTB but they also have a lower attrition rate. Both proposals are good in the long run as the lifetime unit margin goes up from 12.5% to 13% but both proposals put pressure on near-term margins:\nImage Source: September 2015 Investor Day\nThe December 2020 Investor Day transcript reveals what SVP Evan Goldstein thinks about subscription economics including incremental ARR:\n\n Subscription economics relies on 3 metrics: attrition, cost to book and cost to serve. We calculate lifetime revenue by one divided by attrition. Our \n cost of book is our sales and marketing expenses divided by incremental ARR. And then our \n cost to serve is all the other expenses related to supporting that revenue divided by your lifetime revenue.\n\nThere are 4 major income statement lines that get us down from revenue towards operating income and in most years, adding/subtracting investment income, interest expense and taxes from operating income gets us close to net income, the first figure in the cash flow statement. These 4 major income statement lines are cost of revenue or cost of goods sold (\"COGS\"), research and development (\"R&D\"), marketing and sales (\"S&M\") and general and administrative (\"G&A\"). CTB is S&M while the other income statement lines are CTS per the subscription economics slide below from the November 2017 Investor Day Presentation:\nImage Source: November 2017 Investor Day Presentation\nThis slide from the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation is another way of visualizing the same concept. CTB is made of S&M and both these labels favor beige whereas the CTS label and its profit and loss (\"P&L\") statement lines are more of an aquamarine color:\nImage Source: December 2020 Investor Day\nSVP Goldstein reveals that unit economics improved from FY17 to FY21 as declines in attrition more than offset the rise in CTB. CTS flattened and then declined as efficiencies in G&A were found. CTB has increased as they are selling a wide variety of products and workflows in multiple countries such that the portfolio is now broader. This sophistication creates more engagement for customers and attrition falls as Salesforce becomes stickier. SVP Goldstein goes on to explain that unit lifetime economic margins have gone from the mid-30s all the way up to 40% now:\n\n When we started talking to you, we talked about mid-30s. Last year, we updated you that we'd be at about 40%. Now we expect FY '21 to have some slight pressure as it relates to the pandemic. We shared with you earlier this year, we expect attrition to increase, but we believe this will be transitory over time and expect to get back to 40%. However, our decisions to maximize for subscription economics has created some impact on the short-term income statement.\n\nImage Source: December 2020 Investor Day\nI don't think unit economic margins will stop at 40%. There should be more upside in the next 5 years. This is what SVP Goldstein said about the ceiling at the December 2020 Investor Day Presentation:\n\n We definitely think there's upside to that number, and it's about finding efficiencies in CTB, CTS and attrition. Obviously, in the short term, as I've mentioned in my presentation, we're focused on investing in CTB to sort of get every dollar of ARR, but there can potentially be upside as we think about those metrics.\n\nThe bridge between GAAP and non-GAAP margins is clear; acquisition based amortization and stock-based-compensation are straightforward. I don't have a clear bridge between non-GAAP margins and unit economic margins but we do know that both exclude the impact of stock-based compensation and acquisition amortization. It is definitely beneficial that the unit economic margin has been rising over the years. Net cash provided by operating activities on the cash flow statement has some similarities to non-GAAP operating income in that both can be calculated from existing financial statements and both do not subtract amortization and stock-based compensation from revenue. We know that some of the FY21 numbers between the revenue of $21.3 billion and the net cash provided by operating activities of $4.8 billion are tied to revenue growth investments. I often think about what the net cash provided by operating activities would be if revenue wasn't growing. Likewise, I think about what things will look like when revenue reaches $50 billion. Revenue should still be growing substantially at that point so the net cash provided by operating activities number on the cash flow statement will be different from the number we would see without revenue growth.\nEventually the landscape should change such that investing aggressively for annual revenue growth doesn't make as much sense. At that point S&M as a percentage of revenue should decline and the operating margin should rise. A November 2020writeupquotes Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss talking about this tradeoff, saying operating margins can get to 28% in 5 years and 33% in 10 years:\n\n \"The good news is our updated [software-as-a-service] X-ray suggests Salesforce currently has the unit economics to drive operating margins to 28% in 5 years (based on our growth estimates) and 33% in 10 years, as growth slows towards 10%,\" Weiss said.\n\nThe December 2020 Investor Day Presentation shows operating cash flow going from $1.6 billion in FY16 to what they then estimated to be $4.9 billion for FY21 which is a CAGR of over 25%. The actual operating cash flow number for FY21 turned out to be $4.8 billion. Cash flow discussions come in the 4Q calls and the growth has been enormous over the last 3 years. Capex as a percentage of revenue has fallen significantly over the years. The10-Kfor FY14 shows capex was 7.3% of revenue or $299 million/$4.07 billion. By FY21, the 10-K shows it was just 3.3% of revenue or $710 million/$21.25 billion.\nImage Source: FY21 10-K\nAt the December 2020 Wells Fargo TMT Conference, CFO Hawkins noted that their acquisitions tend to dilute margins because they often acquire companies that are just getting started such that they are losing money on the revenue that is generated. The key point is that Salesforce knows how to take these assets that are dilutive at first and grow their revenue in such a way that profits come in the long run:\n\n Our track record, our feedback on M&A has been well. It's been good. Take a look at \n ExactTarget, take a look at Demandware, take a look at MuleSoft, take a look at Tableau, and you're going to -- I always tell people there's a test at the end, we need to perform. But when you look back on that, again, I want to underscore, why do I say that as the CFO? Well, in FY '14, we made 8.9% operating margin, where we just came off a $4 billion a year. Today, the guide is roughly $21 billion in a couple of weeks, and there'll be -- obviously, the next year, you're talking north of $25 billion. And what are we doing? Our operating margin this year, the guide is effectively 17.6%. Okay, progress, better, better never done. But here's the key point, you know the attributes of each of these assets that we took on board. They were smaller, right?\n They lost money, most of them. They are getting started.\n\nIn the 2Q22 call, it was revealed that the FY22 operating cash flow guidance growth would be 21% to 22% were it not for the dilutive cash flow impact of Slack and Acumen. FY21 revenue was $21.3 billion. Getting to $50 billion in 4.5 years by FY26 implies a CAGR of a little over 20%. I think operating cash flow can grow at a CAGR of nearly 23% such that it goes from $4.8 billion to about $12 billion. If capex is 2.5% of revenue at that point then it should be around $1.25 billion such that FCF is around $10.75 billion.\nI treat stock-based compensation as a cash expense so my adjusted FCF number would normally be lower than this. However, growth investments in S&M largely offset the stock-based compensation consideration. If the market values Salesforce at 35x FCF at this time then it should be worth about $375 billion. This is where I see things on the low end seeing as management can be circumspect with guidance. On the high end, I think revenue can be $55 billion in FY26 and operating cash flow can grow at a CAGR of nearly 27% to reach $14 billion. Capex could be as little as 2% of revenue for $1.1 billion such that FCF is $12.9 billion. 35x this amount is about $450 billion.\nLooking at the 2Q22 balance sheet in the 10-Q filing, the enterprise value is about $1.7 billion more than the market cap due to $10.6 billion in long-term debt, $2.9 billion in long-term leases, $0.7 billion in short-term leases and $1.3 billion in Slack notes, partially offset by $6.3 billion in cash and equivalents plus $3.4 billion in marketable securities plus $4.1 billion in strategic investments. But we are using a FCF framework for valuation where debt and leases are already accounted for as they lower FCF. In FY21, interest expense was the primary component of the $64 million \"other expense\" line. And in the cash flow statement we see that FY21 operating cash flow was lowered by $830 million due to operating lease liabilities. I just look at the market cap for the valuation framework. The 2Q22 10-Q says there were approximately 979 million shares outstanding as of August 25, 2021. The September 10th share price was $257.20 implying a market cap of nearly $252 billion.\nAgain, today's market cap is almost $255 billion. If it grows to $375 billion in 4 and a half years at the end of FY26 then the 4.5 year CAGR is almost 9%. If it grows to $450 billion in 4 and a half years at the end of FY26 then the CAGR is a little over 13%. If there were no dilution then I think we'd see an outcome somewhere in between such that the stock has a CAGR between 9% and 13% over the next 4 and a half years. There will be some dilution so the CAGR range could be a bit lower, especially if the dilution comes from acquisitions that fail to speed up the $50 billion revenue target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881051985,"gmtCreate":1631282592847,"gmtModify":1631890134491,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569323320302810","authorIdStr":"3569323320302810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ooo","listText":"Ooo","text":"Ooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881051985","repostId":"883298049","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":883298049,"gmtCreate":1631241533075,"gmtModify":1631253890936,"author":{"id":"3510558082622800","authorId":"3510558082622800","name":"胖虎哒哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b95d9326c02813b7b87ba8c1eccb5a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3510558082622800","authorIdStr":"3510558082622800"},"themes":[],"title":"小调查：iPhone13秘密泄露，你想换新机吗？","htmlText":"随着9月15日的苹果特别活动日一天天的临近，近期网上也涌现出诸多关于iPhone 13的信息。除了有新机的配置、价格爆料之外，最近还有媒体对iPhone用户是否有升级iPhone 13的愿意做了一期调查。据悉，该调查是由Savings开展，收集1500名iPhone用户的意向。 根据调查结果显示：其中仅有10%的用户计划入手iPhone 13，有着64%的用户没有升级计划，此外，还有26%的用户表示还没做好决定。 对于这一调查结果，个人倒不会感到太大的意外。毕竟就目前的爆料的信息来看，iPhone 13相较于上一代并不会太多的提升，很可能只是将后置模组中的镜头改变了摆放位置，刘海屏缩小一些，并上全新的A15芯片。至于大家尤为关心的120Hz高刷屏和大电池，大概率也只会在iPhone 13 Pro/ Pro Max身上出现。 此外，据乌克兰人称，iPhone 13系列将提供新的粉红色、黑色和青铜色，存储选项将与iPhone 12相同，除了 5.4 英寸和 6.1 英寸标准型号没有 256GB 存储选项之外被91mobiles发现的电子商务网站“KTC”声称已经透露了即将推出的设备的配置选项。 MacRumors 对黑色、青铜色和粉红色 iPhone 13 型号的渲染。在iPhone 13迷你和iPhone 13显然将继续在六个颜色可供选择：黑色，蓝色，紫色，粉色，白色，和PRODUCT（RED）。这意味着粉红色将取代 iPhone 12 阵容中的绿色。 另一方面，据称iPhone 13 Pro和iPhone 13 Pro Max将继续提供四种颜色选择：黑色、银色、金色和青铜色。这意味着黑色将取代iPhone 12 Pro系列中的石墨，而青铜色将取代太平洋蓝。 再加上目前iPhone 12已经支持了5G网络，所以对于iPhone 12用户而言，新机确实谈不上有太大的吸引力。下面","listText":"随着9月15日的苹果特别活动日一天天的临近，近期网上也涌现出诸多关于iPhone 13的信息。除了有新机的配置、价格爆料之外，最近还有媒体对iPhone用户是否有升级iPhone 13的愿意做了一期调查。据悉，该调查是由Savings开展，收集1500名iPhone用户的意向。 根据调查结果显示：其中仅有10%的用户计划入手iPhone 13，有着64%的用户没有升级计划，此外，还有26%的用户表示还没做好决定。 对于这一调查结果，个人倒不会感到太大的意外。毕竟就目前的爆料的信息来看，iPhone 13相较于上一代并不会太多的提升，很可能只是将后置模组中的镜头改变了摆放位置，刘海屏缩小一些，并上全新的A15芯片。至于大家尤为关心的120Hz高刷屏和大电池，大概率也只会在iPhone 13 Pro/ Pro Max身上出现。 此外，据乌克兰人称，iPhone 13系列将提供新的粉红色、黑色和青铜色，存储选项将与iPhone 12相同，除了 5.4 英寸和 6.1 英寸标准型号没有 256GB 存储选项之外被91mobiles发现的电子商务网站“KTC”声称已经透露了即将推出的设备的配置选项。 MacRumors 对黑色、青铜色和粉红色 iPhone 13 型号的渲染。在iPhone 13迷你和iPhone 13显然将继续在六个颜色可供选择：黑色，蓝色，紫色，粉色，白色，和PRODUCT（RED）。这意味着粉红色将取代 iPhone 12 阵容中的绿色。 另一方面，据称iPhone 13 Pro和iPhone 13 Pro Max将继续提供四种颜色选择：黑色、银色、金色和青铜色。这意味着黑色将取代iPhone 12 Pro系列中的石墨，而青铜色将取代太平洋蓝。 再加上目前iPhone 12已经支持了5G网络，所以对于iPhone 12用户而言，新机确实谈不上有太大的吸引力。下面","text":"随着9月15日的苹果特别活动日一天天的临近，近期网上也涌现出诸多关于iPhone 13的信息。除了有新机的配置、价格爆料之外，最近还有媒体对iPhone用户是否有升级iPhone 13的愿意做了一期调查。据悉，该调查是由Savings开展，收集1500名iPhone用户的意向。 根据调查结果显示：其中仅有10%的用户计划入手iPhone 13，有着64%的用户没有升级计划，此外，还有26%的用户表示还没做好决定。 对于这一调查结果，个人倒不会感到太大的意外。毕竟就目前的爆料的信息来看，iPhone 13相较于上一代并不会太多的提升，很可能只是将后置模组中的镜头改变了摆放位置，刘海屏缩小一些，并上全新的A15芯片。至于大家尤为关心的120Hz高刷屏和大电池，大概率也只会在iPhone 13 Pro/ Pro Max身上出现。 此外，据乌克兰人称，iPhone 13系列将提供新的粉红色、黑色和青铜色，存储选项将与iPhone 12相同，除了 5.4 英寸和 6.1 英寸标准型号没有 256GB 存储选项之外被91mobiles发现的电子商务网站“KTC”声称已经透露了即将推出的设备的配置选项。 MacRumors 对黑色、青铜色和粉红色 iPhone 13 型号的渲染。在iPhone 13迷你和iPhone 13显然将继续在六个颜色可供选择：黑色，蓝色，紫色，粉色，白色，和PRODUCT（RED）。这意味着粉红色将取代 iPhone 12 阵容中的绿色。 另一方面，据称iPhone 13 Pro和iPhone 13 Pro Max将继续提供四种颜色选择：黑色、银色、金色和青铜色。这意味着黑色将取代iPhone 12 Pro系列中的石墨，而青铜色将取代太平洋蓝。 再加上目前iPhone 12已经支持了5G网络，所以对于iPhone 12用户而言，新机确实谈不上有太大的吸引力。下面","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439a10342ff65ee248adad23544bb2bd","width":"640","height":"950"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be3145812aabd30a8e638523e3e3ef3","width":"640","height":"599"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe570d3643c505741c38c94d03cd853","width":"400","height":"225"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883298049","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"vote":{"id":1542,"gmtBegin":1631241605737,"gmtEnd":1631759961831,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"发布会之后，你会换iPhone 13吗？","choices":[{"id":5693,"sort":1,"name":"Yes！","userSize":136,"voted":false},{"id":5694,"sort":2,"name":"No！","userSize":234,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810460220,"gmtCreate":1629993104460,"gmtModify":1704954369148,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569323320302810","authorIdStr":"3569323320302810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gh","listText":"Gh","text":"Gh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810460220","repostId":"1161561973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161561973","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629991651,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161561973?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161561973","media":"investing.com","summary":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling","content":"<p><div> Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的股价再次上涨。在从1月25日盘中触及的900.40美元的历史新高下跌后，特斯拉股价在过去一段时间内上涨了17%...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1594375853987","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investing.com</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-26 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的股价再次上涨。在从1月25日盘中触及的900.40美元的历史新高下跌后，特斯拉股价在过去一段时间内上涨了17%...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">investing.com</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161561973","content_text":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past three months, outperforming the benchmark NASDAQ 100 Index.\nThe biggest question Tesla bulls now have is, whether, on top of the current gains, can the EV manufacturer's stock push through back to the all-time high of $900 this year?\nTesla Weekly Chart.\nGiven the highly volatile nature of the stock, it’s tough to predict whether the current Tesla rally has legs. But it’s important to note that the outlook for its car sales is becoming more uncertain than it was a year ago.\nFirst, the global chip shortage continues to cast doubt on Tesla’s ambitious sales targets for 2021. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk highlighted challenges that come from the unpredictability of chip supplies and the hurdles he expects in ramping production at two new factories in Austin, Texas, and Berlin, later this year.\nTesla again delayed delivery of its semi-trailer truck—already two years late. The first trucks of this type are now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as management trying to focus on getting new factories online. The company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues.\nThis is what Musk told analysts last month:\n\n “While we’re making cars at full speed, the global chip-shortage situation remains quite serious. For the rest of this year, our growth rate will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain.”\n\nRegulatory Probe\nBesides the risks to the market’s earnings consensus for this fiscal year, Tesla is facing a regulatory probe that could result in a massive recall.\nThe U.S.opened a formal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system last week after almost a dozen collisions involving first-responder vehicles. In the last seven years, Tesla has charged clients thousands of dollars for this feature.\nThe probe by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) covers an estimated 765,000 Tesla Model Y, X, S and 3 vehicles from the 2014 model year onward. The regulator—which has the power to deem cars defective and order recalls—said it launched the investigation after 11 crashes that resulted in 17 injuries and one fatality.\nBloomberg reported that Tesla has been criticized for years for labeling the system in a potentially misleading way. Since late 2016, it has marketed this higher-level functionality feature as Full Self-Driving Capability. In reality, Autopilot is a driver-assistance system that maintains vehicles’ speed and keeps them centered in lanes when engaged, though the driver is supposed to supervise at all times.\nTesla now sells that package of features—often referred to as FSD—for $10,000 or $199 a month.\nAfter the NHTSA launched of the probe, two Democratic senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to also investigate Tesla over the company’s advertising of its Autopilot and FSD technology.\nIn a letter last Wednesday, Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts asked FTC Chair Lina Khan to examine whether Tesla used “potentially deceptive and unfair practices” in its marketing of those technologies.\n“We fear that Tesla’s Autopilot and FSD features are not as mature and reliable as the company pitches to the public,” they wrote, pointing to comments from Musk, as well as a 2019 YouTube video entitled “Full Self-Driving” and has a link to Tesla’s site.\nHighlighting these risks and how they could affect Tesla’s current stock price, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that there are many analysts who continue to remain bullish on TSLA. Piper Sandler reiterated its overweight rating on the stock and its price target of $1,200 this month.\nIn a note, analysts Alexander Potter and Winnie Dong said:\n\n “Bottom line: We still really like this stock. Tesla is still the driving force behind higher [battery electric vehicle] penetration globally.”\n\nBottom Line\nIt’s difficult to predict the future course for Tesla stock given the huge amount of speculative interest in this name. But recent developments show that it will be quite hard for the EV automaker to exceed expectations in this tough manufacturing environment.\nInvestors should trade this name with caution.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837490317,"gmtCreate":1629903271339,"gmtModify":1631890134516,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569323320302810","authorIdStr":"3569323320302810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noo","listText":"Noo","text":"Noo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837490317","repostId":"1195506103","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195506103","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629901738,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195506103?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-25 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195506103","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.\nThe ex","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.</li> <li>The excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF.</li> <li>We stick to our opinion that Palantir is not going to be able to create a lot of shareholder value anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5c6d796592faec81d9a29502efa9c0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管营收业绩有所改善，Palantir的净亏损仍在继续扩大。</li><li>过度的股票薪酬计划继续吞噬所有利润，并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。</li><li>我们坚持认为Palantir无法在短期内创造大量股东价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The recent Q2 earnings report showed that Palantir (PLTR) continues to struggle to improve its bottom-line performance, as the company spends too much on its excessive stock-based compensation program, which eats all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF. In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>最近的第二季度收益报告显示，Palantir(PLTR)继续难以提高其底线业绩，因为该公司在过度的股票薪酬计划上花费过多，该计划吞噬了所有利润并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。此外，今年以来的大规模稀释以及公司内部人士持续的抛售压力也阻碍了Palantir股价的升值。此外，Palantir近几个月表现不佳，且其股价自3月份以来没有太大变动，这一事实证明了我们的观点，即该公司现阶段不是一项有吸引力的投资，因为有充分的理由相信，很快就会创造出很多股东价值。因此，我们仍然认为最好投资于市场上其他更具吸引力的机会，并避免Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There's Nothing Attractive About This Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这只股票没有什么吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> A lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>最近有关Palantir的文章中已经对该公司的业务及其相对于其他竞争对手的优势进行了很多讨论，因此我们不会在本文中讨论它。然而，虽然Palantir肯定具有一些重大优势，因为其软件解决方案很难复制，但我们也认为，在现阶段，其业务有多强大并不重要，因为某些因素可能会继续阻止该公司的股票很快就会升值。我们不要忽视这样一个事实：Palantir的股票已从历史高点下跌了45%以上，自从我们3月份开始在Seeking Alpha上报道该公司以来，它也没有太大变化，我们仍然相信不会有太大变化。很快就会创造股东价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448991dec6028a9ec320f12e9d0f14f1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候发布的最新Q2财报显示，尽管业务不断增长，Palantir仍无法改善其底线业绩。虽然其收入环比增长10.1%至3.7564亿美元，毛利润环比增长6.6%至2.847亿美元，但其运营亏损环比增长28.2%至-1.461亿美元，净亏损环比扩大12.2%至-1.386亿美元。业绩如此疲软的原因是过度的股票薪酬计划，这将阻止该公司报告利润，因为本财年前六个月已在SBC计划上花费了超过4亿美元。仅在第二季度，Palantir的股票薪酬支出就同比增加了82%，达到2.327亿美元，第三季度和第四季度的进一步支出将掩盖今年收入或自由现金流的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7dd0114d8a61c1246ef79b64fbc68f2\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"129\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.</p><p><blockquote>过度SBC计划的另一个问题是它不断稀释Palantir的股东。该公司已发行股票18.9亿股，高于一个月前的18亿股和2020年底的15.2亿股。按照目前的稀释率，投资者预计到今年年底该公司将拥有超过20亿股股票。这不仅会降低当前持有者的股票价值，还会使股票因数量增加而更难升值。如果2019年和2020年Palantir的每股收入分别为每股1.29美元和每股1.12美元，那么在过去12个月中，每股收入已经下降至每股0.83美元，并且在接下来的几个季度中可能会进一步贬值。最重要的是，考虑到Palantir在第二季度末仍有417,674份未行使期权，平均行使价为每股6.90美元，进一步稀释的风险仍将很高，特别是因为一旦所有这些期权都被行使，它们将稀释所有投资者超过20%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d64c44e10997f737309cf33d72b9c15\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，该公司的内部人士，尤其是首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普继续增加额外的抛售压力，这也阻止了股价上涨。仅在第二季度，该公司内部人士就出售了价值创纪录的1.97亿美元的Palantir股票，而在第三季度上半年，他们已经出售了价值9300万美元的公司股票，几乎与第一季度出售的金额相同。随着越来越多的股票被抛售到市场上，股票上涨变得越来越难。考虑到内部人士不太可能停止出售其股票，因为他们仍然拥有超过10%的流通股，并且每个季度都通过行使期权来增加其股票总数，普通股东不应期望Palantir的股票在可预见的未来会迅速升值。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，即使以目前的价格计算，它也根本不是一只便宜的股票；它的市值为470亿美元，交易价格是其销售额的30倍。因此，该公司需要更高的营收增长率才能达到目前的估值，而这不太可能很快发生。目前，华尔街预计Palantir在2021财年的收入仅为15亿美元，到2025年，该公司的年收入不太可能超过35亿美元。考虑到现阶段Palantir积压的合同价值仅为34亿美元，这些合同将在未来几年内延长，可以肯定地说，其股票在当前水平上被严重高估。我们不知道该公司在未来几年内将如何增长到目前的市值，而且由于其股价目前接近每股24.16美元的共识价格，因此可以有把握地假设Palantir在当前水平上的上涨空间有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.</p><p><blockquote>看涨投资者在我们关于Palantir的文章的评论部分经常重复说，亚马逊(AMZN)也在二十多年里没有盈利，因此Palantir也没有盈利的事实在现阶段并不是什么大不了的事情。然而，亚马逊将大部分可用资源重新投资到其业务中，以积极推动增长，这最终是合理的，因为该公司现在每个季度都在赚钱，并且是世界上最大的电子商务公司。Palantir的情况并非如此，内部人士不断发行新股，然后将其倾销到市场上，这不断稀释现有股东，扩大整体净亏损，对业务没有好处。最重要的是，Palantir现在正在投资加密货币、SPAC和金条，而不是自己的业务，这是亚马逊过去没有做的事情，今天也不会做的事情。这就是为什么将Palantir与亚马逊进行比较没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> Considering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，我们认为Palantir的股票不太可能很快大幅升值，因为抛售压力增加、不断稀释和估值过高是其在当前价格下上涨空间仍然有限的主要原因。因此，没有立场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 22:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.</li> <li>The excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF.</li> <li>We stick to our opinion that Palantir is not going to be able to create a lot of shareholder value anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5c6d796592faec81d9a29502efa9c0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管营收业绩有所改善，Palantir的净亏损仍在继续扩大。</li><li>过度的股票薪酬计划继续吞噬所有利润，并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。</li><li>我们坚持认为Palantir无法在短期内创造大量股东价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The recent Q2 earnings report showed that Palantir (PLTR) continues to struggle to improve its bottom-line performance, as the company spends too much on its excessive stock-based compensation program, which eats all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF. In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>最近的第二季度收益报告显示，Palantir(PLTR)继续难以提高其底线业绩，因为该公司在过度的股票薪酬计划上花费过多，该计划吞噬了所有利润并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。此外，今年以来的大规模稀释以及公司内部人士持续的抛售压力也阻碍了Palantir股价的升值。此外，Palantir近几个月表现不佳，且其股价自3月份以来没有太大变动，这一事实证明了我们的观点，即该公司现阶段不是一项有吸引力的投资，因为有充分的理由相信，很快就会创造出很多股东价值。因此，我们仍然认为最好投资于市场上其他更具吸引力的机会，并避免Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There's Nothing Attractive About This Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这只股票没有什么吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> A lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>最近有关Palantir的文章中已经对该公司的业务及其相对于其他竞争对手的优势进行了很多讨论，因此我们不会在本文中讨论它。然而，虽然Palantir肯定具有一些重大优势，因为其软件解决方案很难复制，但我们也认为，在现阶段，其业务有多强大并不重要，因为某些因素可能会继续阻止该公司的股票很快就会升值。我们不要忽视这样一个事实：Palantir的股票已从历史高点下跌了45%以上，自从我们3月份开始在Seeking Alpha上报道该公司以来，它也没有太大变化，我们仍然相信不会有太大变化。很快就会创造股东价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448991dec6028a9ec320f12e9d0f14f1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候发布的最新Q2财报显示，尽管业务不断增长，Palantir仍无法改善其底线业绩。虽然其收入环比增长10.1%至3.7564亿美元，毛利润环比增长6.6%至2.847亿美元，但其运营亏损环比增长28.2%至-1.461亿美元，净亏损环比扩大12.2%至-1.386亿美元。业绩如此疲软的原因是过度的股票薪酬计划，这将阻止该公司报告利润，因为本财年前六个月已在SBC计划上花费了超过4亿美元。仅在第二季度，Palantir的股票薪酬支出就同比增加了82%，达到2.327亿美元，第三季度和第四季度的进一步支出将掩盖今年收入或自由现金流的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7dd0114d8a61c1246ef79b64fbc68f2\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"129\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.</p><p><blockquote>过度SBC计划的另一个问题是它不断稀释Palantir的股东。该公司已发行股票18.9亿股，高于一个月前的18亿股和2020年底的15.2亿股。按照目前的稀释率，投资者预计到今年年底该公司将拥有超过20亿股股票。这不仅会降低当前持有者的股票价值，还会使股票因数量增加而更难升值。如果2019年和2020年Palantir的每股收入分别为每股1.29美元和每股1.12美元，那么在过去12个月中，每股收入已经下降至每股0.83美元，并且在接下来的几个季度中可能会进一步贬值。最重要的是，考虑到Palantir在第二季度末仍有417,674份未行使期权，平均行使价为每股6.90美元，进一步稀释的风险仍将很高，特别是因为一旦所有这些期权都被行使，它们将稀释所有投资者超过20%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d64c44e10997f737309cf33d72b9c15\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，该公司的内部人士，尤其是首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普继续增加额外的抛售压力，这也阻止了股价上涨。仅在第二季度，该公司内部人士就出售了价值创纪录的1.97亿美元的Palantir股票，而在第三季度上半年，他们已经出售了价值9300万美元的公司股票，几乎与第一季度出售的金额相同。随着越来越多的股票被抛售到市场上，股票上涨变得越来越难。考虑到内部人士不太可能停止出售其股票，因为他们仍然拥有超过10%的流通股，并且每个季度都通过行使期权来增加其股票总数，普通股东不应期望Palantir的股票在可预见的未来会迅速升值。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，即使以目前的价格计算，它也根本不是一只便宜的股票；它的市值为470亿美元，交易价格是其销售额的30倍。因此，该公司需要更高的营收增长率才能达到目前的估值，而这不太可能很快发生。目前，华尔街预计Palantir在2021财年的收入仅为15亿美元，到2025年，该公司的年收入不太可能超过35亿美元。考虑到现阶段Palantir积压的合同价值仅为34亿美元，这些合同将在未来几年内延长，可以肯定地说，其股票在当前水平上被严重高估。我们不知道该公司在未来几年内将如何增长到目前的市值，而且由于其股价目前接近每股24.16美元的共识价格，因此可以有把握地假设Palantir在当前水平上的上涨空间有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.</p><p><blockquote>看涨投资者在我们关于Palantir的文章的评论部分经常重复说，亚马逊(AMZN)也在二十多年里没有盈利，因此Palantir也没有盈利的事实在现阶段并不是什么大不了的事情。然而，亚马逊将大部分可用资源重新投资到其业务中，以积极推动增长，这最终是合理的，因为该公司现在每个季度都在赚钱，并且是世界上最大的电子商务公司。Palantir的情况并非如此，内部人士不断发行新股，然后将其倾销到市场上，这不断稀释现有股东，扩大整体净亏损，对业务没有好处。最重要的是，Palantir现在正在投资加密货币、SPAC和金条，而不是自己的业务，这是亚马逊过去没有做的事情，今天也不会做的事情。这就是为什么将Palantir与亚马逊进行比较没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> Considering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，我们认为Palantir的股票不太可能很快大幅升值，因为抛售压力增加、不断稀释和估值过高是其在当前价格下上涨空间仍然有限的主要原因。因此，没有立场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451225-palantir-shareholder-unfriendly-company-with-limited-upside-pltr\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451225-palantir-shareholder-unfriendly-company-with-limited-upside-pltr","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195506103","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.\nThe excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF.\nWe stick to our opinion that Palantir is not going to be able to create a lot of shareholder value anytime soon.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe recent Q2 earnings report showed that Palantir (PLTR) continues to struggle to improve its bottom-line performance, as the company spends too much on its excessive stock-based compensation program, which eats all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF. In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.\nThere's Nothing Attractive About This Stock\nA lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nThe latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.\nSource: Palantir\nAnother problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.\nSource: Palantir\nOn top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.\nAnother downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.\nTakeaway\nBullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.\nConsidering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890648721,"gmtCreate":1628117278563,"gmtModify":1631890134530,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569323320302810","authorIdStr":"3569323320302810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not good","listText":"Not good","text":"Not good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890648721","repostId":"1127899199","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}