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Fred_6810

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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-19
  $爱芯元智(00600)$ 市场这么好，你股价是sbm
  233 评论
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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-16
  那是2028年吧
  不能只靠台积电，郭明錤：苹果正系统培养英特尔，剑指“关键供应商”
  郭明錤最新产业调查显示，苹果与英特尔的合作并非单纯试单，而是在三大产品线同步推进，以验证英特尔未来成为关键供应商的可能性。台积电处境：短期无虞，但成为风险对冲对象郭明錤认为，即便英特尔基本顺利出货，台积电仍将占据苹果先进制程供应比重的90%以上。也就是说，台积电未来数年在苹果供应链中的领先地位仍然稳固。但问题在于，台积电的领先地位本身正成为各方风险对冲的焦点。
  不能只靠台积电，郭明錤：苹果正系统培养英特尔，剑指“关键供应商”
  389 评论
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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-16
  你是3年以后
  @魅力少年：
  $英特尔(INTC)$ 坚持看多
  $英特尔(INTC)$ 坚持看多
  224 评论
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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-16
  呵呵🤭
  304 评论
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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-15
  $英特尔(INTC)$ 解释一下，为啥英特尔一年以后比同行还要贵这么多
  8,730 评论
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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-15
  $小米集团-W(01810)$ 真软
  280 评论
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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-14
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$ 成仙股啦
  501 评论
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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-14
  $英特尔(INTC)$ 全世界最贵的半导体公司
  453 评论
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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-14
  $爱芯元智(00600)$ 摘牌吧
  322 评论
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- Fred_6810Fred_6810
  ·05-14
  $启明医疗-B(02500)$ 马上成仙谷啦
  497 评论
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00600\">$爱芯元智(00600)$</a>&nbsp; 市场这么好， 你股价是sbm","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00600\">$爱芯元智(00600)$</a>&nbsp; 市场这么好， 你股价是sbm","text":"$爱芯元智(00600)$ 市场这么好， 你股价是sbm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565810094388264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":564542821361432,"gmtCreate":1778862227993,"gmtModify":1778862230309,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563140991934227","idStr":"3563140991934227"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"那是2028年吧","listText":"那是2028年吧","text":"那是2028年吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564542821361432","repostId":"1112355951","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1112355951","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1778842609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112355951?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-15 18:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"不能只靠台积电，郭明錤：苹果正系统培养英特尔，剑指“关键供应商”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112355951","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"郭明錤最新产业调查显示，苹果与英特尔的合作并非单纯试单，而是在三大产品线同步推进，以验证英特尔未来成为关键供应商的可能性。台积电处境：短期无虞，但成为风险对冲对象郭明錤认为，即便英特尔基本顺利出货，台积电仍将占据苹果先进制程供应比重的90%以上。也就是说，台积电未来数年在苹果供应链中的领先地位仍然稳固。但问题在于，台积电的领先地位本身正成为各方风险对冲的焦点。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>苹果正在为先进制程供应链寻找更具战略意义的第二支点。郭明錤最新产业调查显示，苹果与英特尔的合作并非单纯试单，而是在三大产品线同步推进，以验证英特尔未来成为关键供应商的可能性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">天风国际证券分析师郭明錤5月15日发推文表示，苹果已在英特尔18A-P系列制程开案低阶或旧款iPhone、iPad与Mac处理器，并将采用英特尔Foveros先进封装。<strong>订单结构中，iPhone约占80%，与苹果终端设备销售结构相近。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一安排的市场含义在于，苹果并不打算在短期内动摇台积电的核心地位，但正在提前培养替代能力。随着台积电先进制程资源趋紧，并持续向AI相关需求倾斜，苹果有动力在仍具议价力时扩大供应选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对英特尔而言，这可能是其先进制程晶圆代工业务罕见的“练兵”窗口。对台积电而言，未来数年地位仍然稳固，但其领先优势正成为客户、政策与竞争者共同风险对冲的焦点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769081dd8e08f096f6020750202b326b\" tg-width=\"546\" tg-height=\"2116\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2611179664\" style=\"text-align: left;\">合作焦点：低阶与旧款芯片，覆盖苹果三大产品线</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">郭明錤称，苹果与英特尔的代工合作可能聚焦于iPhone、iPad和Mac系列中的相对低端、遗留式前代芯片。这些芯片将使用英特尔18A-P系列制造工艺，并采用英特尔独家的Foveros先进封装。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>订单组合大约80%集中在iPhone产品线。</strong>郭明錤认为，这反映了苹果终端设备销售组合，也说明苹果并非只选择单一低风险产品进行测试，而是在更接近真实业务结构的条件下验证英特尔的能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他还表示，苹果正在同步评估英特尔其他先进制程技术。不过，英特尔量产时间表、最终出货规模仍未明朗，终端与EMS端目前也尚未看到明确出货规划。</p><h2 id=\"id_954059600\" style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果意图：在仍有议价力时培养第二来源</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">郭明錤判断，苹果在英特尔同时建立iPhone、iPad和Mac三大产品线项目，且投片比例接近市场销量结构，意味着苹果正在模拟并验证英特尔未来成为全产品线供应商的可能性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这不仅是为了降低对单一供应商的依赖，或提升与台积电谈判时的议价力。更关键的是，苹果意识到，若台积电先进制程资源持续向AI倾斜，未来再培养新供应商的成本和难度可能更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，苹果选择在仍具备较强议价能力时推进英特尔合作，同时凭借自身芯片设计优势，维持与台积电的交易关系。这是一种双轨策略：核心供应继续依靠台积电，长期弹性则通过英特尔建立。</p><h2 id=\"id_755249948\" style=\"text-align: left;\">英特尔机会：苹果订单是代工业务的完整训练场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">未来数年，苹果绝大部分先进制程订单仍将集中在台积电。因此，郭明錤认为，苹果几乎是英特尔唯一、也是最完整的晶圆代工练兵机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原因在于，苹果订单覆盖全产品线，规模足够大，还需要根据市场变化动态调整设计和生产节奏。这类客户能够测试英特尔在制程、封装、量产协作和交付管理上的整体能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，短期内苹果订单难以显著扭转英特尔代工业务的单季亏损，供货比重也会受到产能和良率限制。郭明錤称，<strong>英特尔内部对苹果订单喜忧参半，机会巨大，但执行难度同样突出。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果的高标准，加上英特尔同时承接其他客户订单的策略，都会放大先进制程代工业务重建的难度。郭明錤认为，英特尔站上了由自身努力、地缘政治和客户避险共同推动的窗口期，但能否兑现，取决于执行力。</p><h2 id=\"id_3451512751\" style=\"text-align: left;\">良率考验：18A-P能否放量是关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">郭明錤表示，英特尔2027年的生产良率目标，是先稳定达到50%至60%以上。素材同时提到，部分产业链研究人士测算，台积电目前最先进的2nm制程节点良率高于70%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，英特尔若要真正成为苹果关键供应商，仅获得项目验证还不够。18A-P良率、量产节奏、客户出货规模和毛利率改善，都将成为投资者评估其代工复兴叙事的核心指标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前，英特尔股价定价逻辑已不只围绕数据中心服务器CPU周期，也包含“美国科技巨头先进代工第二供应源”的预期。但如果良率、量产或盈利改善不及预期，这一高弹性叙事也可能面临回撤压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_4046201890\" style=\"text-align: left;\">台积电处境：短期无虞，但成为风险对冲对象</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">郭明錤认为，即便英特尔基本顺利出货，台积电仍将占据苹果先进制程供应比重的90%以上。也就是说，台积电未来数年在苹果供应链中的领先地位仍然稳固。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但问题在于，台积电的领先地位本身正成为各方风险对冲的焦点。当先进制程成为稀缺资源，并且资源持续向AI倾斜，苹果自然会寻求英特尔合作，以增强议价力和供应弹性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">郭明錤称，苹果并非孤例。先进制程关键参与者都在围绕台积电进行风险对冲：美国政府通过一系列半导体政策推进本土能力，苹果培养英特尔，Samsung则用记忆体业务利润支持先进制程投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相对而言，台积电目前主要依靠卓越执行力应对竞争。郭明錤认为，这相当于把竞争优势押注在“执行力会持续领先”这一假设上。</p><h2 id=\"id_3637425607\" style=\"text-align: left;\">定价与产能：台积电需要把潜在竞争风险计入账本</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">郭明錤指出，台积电在执行力之外，可用的外部对冲工具有限。这是结构性问题：美国既是台积电关键市场和技术合作对象，也是重要政策压力来源；其他可能合作对象，包括中国大陆、欧盟和日本，都不能或难以形成有效对冲。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在市场策略上，业务多元化、客户结构分散、技术授权、供应链本土化等外部对冲手段，也会因台积电领先地位而出现边际效用递减。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，郭明錤认为，加速累积内部资本是更务实的方式，而内部资本来自先进制程定价权。这不仅意味着合理利润，也意味着对未来风险进行定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英特尔就是一个具体案例。郭明錤称，当英特尔将自家产品下单给台积电，以空出产能与苹果练兵时，对台积电而言，这并不是普通订单，而是可能带来潜在竞争风险的订单。若台积电决定与英特尔交易，就应将这层由地缘政治和客户组合重构带来的竞争关系，纳入风险定价与产能配置考量。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不能只靠台积电，郭明錤：苹果正系统培养英特尔，剑指“关键供应商”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不能只靠台积电，郭明錤：苹果正系统培养英特尔，剑指“关键供应商”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-15 18:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772342><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>苹果正在为先进制程供应链寻找更具战略意义的第二支点。郭明錤最新产业调查显示，苹果与英特尔的合作并非单纯试单，而是在三大产品线同步推进，以验证英特尔未来成为关键供应商的可能性。天风国际证券分析师郭明錤5月15日发推文表示，苹果已在英特尔18A-P系列制程开案低阶或旧款iPhone、iPad与Mac处理器，并将采用英特尔Foveros先进封装。订单结构中，iPhone约占80%，与苹果终端设备销售结构...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772342\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be4c2a08964ef2daf32217f693b44","relate_stocks":{"INTW":"2倍做多INTC ETF-GraniteShares","INTC":"英特尔","LINT":"Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X 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