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TorisQ

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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·07-30
  interesting
  219 评论
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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·07-30
  interesting
  高通的底牌：当手机不再是主场
  高通正经历结构性转型：受存储涨价与苹果订单加速流失影响，手机业务营收大跌，主场权重持续稀释。但其“底牌”已浮出水面：汽车芯片创纪录增长，兜住中期确定性；数据中心业务全面铺开，决定未来估值上限。年底至明年初将是其各业务线成效的关键验证期。
  高通的底牌：当手机不再是主场
  1,088 评论
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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·06-09
  $SWKS 20260618 62.5 CALL$ 一直很看好阶段性的买入call跟了几乎是多频次的每次下跌都会盯一盯大家跟跟看看
  1,837 评论
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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·05-22
  ibm雄起
  特朗普政府将向九家量子计算公司提供20亿美元拨款，并持有股份
  这无疑为公司未来的发展注入了强劲动力。
  特朗普政府将向九家量子计算公司提供20亿美元拨款，并持有股份
  1,049 评论
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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·05-22
  $IBM 20260529 230.0 CALL$ 舒服蹲到了
  946 评论
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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·05-11
  真牛👍
  1,034 评论
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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·05-10
  还会继续涨
  881 评论
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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·05-10
  持续看好
  1,043 评论
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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·2025-10-22
  $CCL 20251121 30.0 CALL$ 买了点这个技术线往上趋势明显应该大肉可以跟
  4,789 1
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- TorisQTorisQ
  ·2025-10-22
  $BYND 20251031 1.0 CALL$ 卖掉1/4止盈了后面放着飞
  5,992 3
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18:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高通的底牌：当手机不再是主场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655449178","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高通正经历结构性转型：受存储涨价与苹果订单加速流失影响，手机业务营收大跌，主场权重持续稀释。但其“底牌”已浮出水面：汽车芯片创纪录增长，兜住中期确定性；数据中心业务全面铺开，决定未来估值上限。年底至明年初将是其各业务线成效的关键验证期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月29日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>交了一份让市场不知道该怎么给分的卷子。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，2026财年第三财季（截至2026年6月28日），高通营收99.5亿美元，同比降4%，微超华尔街预期的96.2亿。Non-GAAP每股收益2.21美元，同比降20%，比预期低了1美分。盘后股价先跌后收窄，目前仍跌超5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b6f106e6bac4910dfc95f0bc8a2a276e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"613\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报的拧巴之处在于：<strong>看手机，收入同比暴跌20%，50亿美元出头，是近年最差的一个季度；看汽车，61%的增长创了纪录；看数据中心，公司确认定制芯片今年底开始发货。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同一家公司，三张完全不同的成绩单。该信哪张？</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">手机：高通的旧地基在塌，但没有塌完</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">手机芯片收入50.86亿美元，同比掉20%。从FY25Q1的76亿峰值到现在，三个季度少了三分之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根因不在需求端。全球智能手机出货量确实在跌——IDC数据，二季度同比降6.7%，连续两个季度下滑——但不是断崖式的。真正掐住高通的，是存储芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本季度内存芯片成本同比涨了约300%。AI数据中心把HBM和DRAM的产能吸走了，手机OEM拿不到量、付不起价。结果就是减产清库存，连带高通芯片订单被砍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通CEO Cristiano在电话会上说得挺直白：<strong>消费者开始买高端里的低配，或者干脆买去年的旧款。连高通最稳的那块高端安卓基本盘，也在松动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但事情没那么线性。管理层明确说了，中国OEM的订单在三季度触底，四季度会回到两位数环比增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>Galaxy S26系列还是高通定制版骁龙8 Elite Gen 5。高端机这个基本盘没有崩，只是被存储涨价暂时压住了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">手机收入占QCT的比重从一年前的67%掉到了60%。按公司投资者日的路标，2029财年这个数字会降到三分之一。手机不会消失，但它在高通的权重正在被系统性稀释。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车：不是概念验证，是真在赚钱了</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，汽车芯片收入15.88亿美元，同比涨61%。连续好几个季度刷新纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">年化收入已经跑到63.5亿美元。三个月前公司设定的年度目标是70亿，当时不少分析师私下觉得偏乐观。现在看来，阿蒙的数字大概率能摸到。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">逻辑不复杂。<strong>燃油车单车芯片价值大概100美元，智能电动车做数字座舱加ADAS方案，单车能推到500到1500美元。</strong>高通手里的骁龙数字座舱和Snapdragon Ride平台，刚好卡在这个跃迁的咽喉上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这个季度新签了宝马和Stellantis。之前已经量产的客户包括奔驰、通用、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>、本田、现代、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>。设计win管线堆到了650亿美元。收入的可预见性很高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>唯一让人有点犹豫的是毛利率。</strong>汽车芯片的定制化程度高，验证周期长，毛利率比手机芯片低5到10个点。汽车收入占比从17%继续往上走，会拖QCT整体毛利率。这个问题不大，但需要持续盯。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层把2029财年汽车收入目标从80亿调到了100亿。以现在的增速和设计win转化节奏，不算夸张。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心：愿景够大，但窗户纸还没捅破</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在6月24日的投资者日上，高通把2029财年非手机收入目标从220亿美元直接拉到400亿，其中数据中心分走150亿。这笔账拆开看是三步走：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一，定制芯片。</strong>两家超大规模云厂商的多代订单已经签了，首款产品年底前出货。管理层管这叫“多年的合作伙伴关系”，不是一锤子买卖。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二，标准芯片。</strong>Dragonfly C1000服务器CPU在投资者日上亮了相，自研Oryon架构，主打能效。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>是第一批客户，但量产要到2028年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三，软件。</strong>收了Modular（估值39亿美元），它的MAX推理平台和Mojo语言要对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的CUDA。去年底收的Alphawave Semi（24亿美元），补了高速互联这块拼图。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摊子铺得很大，但节奏是个问题。</strong>连接芯片今年就能贡献收入，定制芯片明年开始，通用AI加速器要到明年下半年，服务器CPU更要等到后年下半年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在投资者日后给了个“中性”评级，12个月目标价145美元，比当前股价还低。它的原话是：<strong>早期合作与大规模收入之间仍有很长的距离。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">坦率说，这个判断不保守。市场给数据中心业务的估值，押的是2028年到2029年，中间两年执行窗口，任何一个环节出问题都会打折。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>：这个利空比想象中来得快</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在所有让高通头疼的事情里，苹果自研基带的进度是最被市场低估的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通这次财报首次明确警告：<strong>苹果产品收入在加速流失。</strong>管理层在电话会上说，即将发布的iPhone上高通基带的份额会“远低于此前20%的预期”，四季度苹果收入可能环比腰斩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去五年关于“苹果什么时候踢掉高通基带”的讨论一直没断过，每次都被技术难度拖住了。现在，这个进程正在实质性加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>算一笔账：</strong>苹果每季度给高通贡献15到20亿美元的芯片收入（基带加射频前端）。份额从原来大约20%掉到10%以下，每年就是60到80亿美元的高毛利收入没了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amon的应对是：FY2027非手机QCT收入增速超过60%，直接覆盖苹果流失的影响。汽车、IoT、数据中心三条线得同时跑起来。信不信取决于你对这三块业务增速的判断。我个人觉得汽车那条线最稳，数据中心变数最大。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">提价：一次没什么退路的测试</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通宣布9月1日起全线提价，幅度两位数百分比。阿蒙的措辞是这样的：“成本上去了，价格就得跟着涨。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这不是高通第一次涨价，但这回不太一样。<strong>以前提价靠制程升级，新产品卖贵点顺理成章。这次是晶圆、封装、存储、材料全面涨价，内部已经吃不下去了。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高通在安卓旗舰芯片上确实有定价权。</strong>三星、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>、OPPO、vivo、荣耀的旗舰机离开骁龙几乎没有替代选项。这批客户大概率会接受涨价，再转嫁给消费者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但有个反身性问题。<strong>存储涨300%、芯片涨两位数、终端再涨一轮，中低端手机可能涨300到500块人民币。</strong>中低端市场本来就对价格敏感，量会不会进一步萎缩？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">量价之间在互相拉扯。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，FY26Q3毛利率53.77%，一年前是55.56%。<strong>提价效果要两个季度后才能看清，最早到FY27Q1才有答案。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通现在大概1800亿美元的市值，手机撑着下限，汽车和IoT兜住了中期确定性，数据中心决定了估值能弹多高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三块业务处在完全不同的阶段，但都在年底到明年初集中迎来验证节点。<strong>十二月那个季度，手机会不会如管理层说的那样触底反弹，定制芯片能不能准时出货</strong>——这两件事的答案，比投资者日上任一个目标数字都更有分量。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高通的底牌：当手机不再是主场</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高通的底牌：当手机不再是主场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 18:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月29日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>交了一份让市场不知道该怎么给分的卷子。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，2026财年第三财季（截至2026年6月28日），高通营收99.5亿美元，同比降4%，微超华尔街预期的96.2亿。Non-GAAP每股收益2.21美元，同比降20%，比预期低了1美分。盘后股价先跌后收窄，目前仍跌超5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b6f106e6bac4910dfc95f0bc8a2a276e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"613\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报的拧巴之处在于：<strong>看手机，收入同比暴跌20%，50亿美元出头，是近年最差的一个季度；看汽车，61%的增长创了纪录；看数据中心，公司确认定制芯片今年底开始发货。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同一家公司，三张完全不同的成绩单。该信哪张？</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">手机：高通的旧地基在塌，但没有塌完</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">手机芯片收入50.86亿美元，同比掉20%。从FY25Q1的76亿峰值到现在，三个季度少了三分之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根因不在需求端。全球智能手机出货量确实在跌——IDC数据，二季度同比降6.7%，连续两个季度下滑——但不是断崖式的。真正掐住高通的，是存储芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本季度内存芯片成本同比涨了约300%。AI数据中心把HBM和DRAM的产能吸走了，手机OEM拿不到量、付不起价。结果就是减产清库存，连带高通芯片订单被砍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通CEO Cristiano在电话会上说得挺直白：<strong>消费者开始买高端里的低配，或者干脆买去年的旧款。连高通最稳的那块高端安卓基本盘，也在松动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但事情没那么线性。管理层明确说了，中国OEM的订单在三季度触底，四季度会回到两位数环比增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>Galaxy S26系列还是高通定制版骁龙8 Elite Gen 5。高端机这个基本盘没有崩，只是被存储涨价暂时压住了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">手机收入占QCT的比重从一年前的67%掉到了60%。按公司投资者日的路标，2029财年这个数字会降到三分之一。手机不会消失，但它在高通的权重正在被系统性稀释。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车：不是概念验证，是真在赚钱了</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，汽车芯片收入15.88亿美元，同比涨61%。连续好几个季度刷新纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">年化收入已经跑到63.5亿美元。三个月前公司设定的年度目标是70亿，当时不少分析师私下觉得偏乐观。现在看来，阿蒙的数字大概率能摸到。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">逻辑不复杂。<strong>燃油车单车芯片价值大概100美元，智能电动车做数字座舱加ADAS方案，单车能推到500到1500美元。</strong>高通手里的骁龙数字座舱和Snapdragon Ride平台，刚好卡在这个跃迁的咽喉上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这个季度新签了宝马和Stellantis。之前已经量产的客户包括奔驰、通用、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>、本田、现代、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>。设计win管线堆到了650亿美元。收入的可预见性很高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>唯一让人有点犹豫的是毛利率。</strong>汽车芯片的定制化程度高，验证周期长，毛利率比手机芯片低5到10个点。汽车收入占比从17%继续往上走，会拖QCT整体毛利率。这个问题不大，但需要持续盯。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层把2029财年汽车收入目标从80亿调到了100亿。以现在的增速和设计win转化节奏，不算夸张。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心：愿景够大，但窗户纸还没捅破</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在6月24日的投资者日上，高通把2029财年非手机收入目标从220亿美元直接拉到400亿，其中数据中心分走150亿。这笔账拆开看是三步走：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一，定制芯片。</strong>两家超大规模云厂商的多代订单已经签了，首款产品年底前出货。管理层管这叫“多年的合作伙伴关系”，不是一锤子买卖。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二，标准芯片。</strong>Dragonfly C1000服务器CPU在投资者日上亮了相，自研Oryon架构，主打能效。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>是第一批客户，但量产要到2028年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三，软件。</strong>收了Modular（估值39亿美元），它的MAX推理平台和Mojo语言要对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的CUDA。去年底收的Alphawave Semi（24亿美元），补了高速互联这块拼图。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摊子铺得很大，但节奏是个问题。</strong>连接芯片今年就能贡献收入，定制芯片明年开始，通用AI加速器要到明年下半年，服务器CPU更要等到后年下半年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在投资者日后给了个“中性”评级，12个月目标价145美元，比当前股价还低。它的原话是：<strong>早期合作与大规模收入之间仍有很长的距离。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">坦率说，这个判断不保守。市场给数据中心业务的估值，押的是2028年到2029年，中间两年执行窗口，任何一个环节出问题都会打折。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>：这个利空比想象中来得快</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在所有让高通头疼的事情里，苹果自研基带的进度是最被市场低估的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通这次财报首次明确警告：<strong>苹果产品收入在加速流失。</strong>管理层在电话会上说，即将发布的iPhone上高通基带的份额会“远低于此前20%的预期”，四季度苹果收入可能环比腰斩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去五年关于“苹果什么时候踢掉高通基带”的讨论一直没断过，每次都被技术难度拖住了。现在，这个进程正在实质性加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>算一笔账：</strong>苹果每季度给高通贡献15到20亿美元的芯片收入（基带加射频前端）。份额从原来大约20%掉到10%以下，每年就是60到80亿美元的高毛利收入没了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amon的应对是：FY2027非手机QCT收入增速超过60%，直接覆盖苹果流失的影响。汽车、IoT、数据中心三条线得同时跑起来。信不信取决于你对这三块业务增速的判断。我个人觉得汽车那条线最稳，数据中心变数最大。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">提价：一次没什么退路的测试</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通宣布9月1日起全线提价，幅度两位数百分比。阿蒙的措辞是这样的：“成本上去了，价格就得跟着涨。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这不是高通第一次涨价，但这回不太一样。<strong>以前提价靠制程升级，新产品卖贵点顺理成章。这次是晶圆、封装、存储、材料全面涨价，内部已经吃不下去了。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高通在安卓旗舰芯片上确实有定价权。</strong>三星、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>、OPPO、vivo、荣耀的旗舰机离开骁龙几乎没有替代选项。这批客户大概率会接受涨价，再转嫁给消费者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但有个反身性问题。<strong>存储涨300%、芯片涨两位数、终端再涨一轮，中低端手机可能涨300到500块人民币。</strong>中低端市场本来就对价格敏感，量会不会进一步萎缩？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">量价之间在互相拉扯。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，FY26Q3毛利率53.77%，一年前是55.56%。<strong>提价效果要两个季度后才能看清，最早到FY27Q1才有答案。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通现在大概1800亿美元的市值，手机撑着下限，汽车和IoT兜住了中期确定性，数据中心决定了估值能弹多高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三块业务处在完全不同的阶段，但都在年底到明年初集中迎来验证节点。<strong>十二月那个季度，手机会不会如管理层说的那样触底反弹，定制芯片能不能准时出货</strong>——这两件事的答案，比投资者日上任一个目标数字都更有分量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685375f07e8e901be0e3fd1bc7a412ac","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","BK4605":"半导体精选","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","IE00BVYPNP33.GBP":"GUINNESS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU2247934214.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BVYPNQ40.USD":"GUINNESS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL 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EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778291","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655449178","content_text":"7月29日，高通交了一份让市场不知道该怎么给分的卷子。财报显示，2026财年第三财季（截至2026年6月28日），高通营收99.5亿美元，同比降4%，微超华尔街预期的96.2亿。Non-GAAP每股收益2.21美元，同比降20%，比预期低了1美分。盘后股价先跌后收窄，目前仍跌超5%。这份财报的拧巴之处在于：看手机，收入同比暴跌20%，50亿美元出头，是近年最差的一个季度；看汽车，61%的增长创了纪录；看数据中心，公司确认定制芯片今年底开始发货。同一家公司，三张完全不同的成绩单。该信哪张？手机：高通的旧地基在塌，但没有塌完手机芯片收入50.86亿美元，同比掉20%。从FY25Q1的76亿峰值到现在，三个季度少了三分之一。根因不在需求端。全球智能手机出货量确实在跌——IDC数据，二季度同比降6.7%，连续两个季度下滑——但不是断崖式的。真正掐住高通的，是存储芯片。本季度内存芯片成本同比涨了约300%。AI数据中心把HBM和DRAM的产能吸走了，手机OEM拿不到量、付不起价。结果就是减产清库存，连带高通芯片订单被砍。高通CEO Cristiano在电话会上说得挺直白：消费者开始买高端里的低配，或者干脆买去年的旧款。连高通最稳的那块高端安卓基本盘，也在松动。但事情没那么线性。管理层明确说了，中国OEM的订单在三季度触底，四季度会回到两位数环比增长。三星Galaxy S26系列还是高通定制版骁龙8 Elite Gen 5。高端机这个基本盘没有崩，只是被存储涨价暂时压住了。手机收入占QCT的比重从一年前的67%掉到了60%。按公司投资者日的路标，2029财年这个数字会降到三分之一。手机不会消失，但它在高通的权重正在被系统性稀释。汽车：不是概念验证，是真在赚钱了财报显示，汽车芯片收入15.88亿美元，同比涨61%。连续好几个季度刷新纪录。年化收入已经跑到63.5亿美元。三个月前公司设定的年度目标是70亿，当时不少分析师私下觉得偏乐观。现在看来，阿蒙的数字大概率能摸到。逻辑不复杂。燃油车单车芯片价值大概100美元，智能电动车做数字座舱加ADAS方案，单车能推到500到1500美元。高通手里的骁龙数字座舱和Snapdragon Ride平台，刚好卡在这个跃迁的咽喉上。这个季度新签了宝马和Stellantis。之前已经量产的客户包括奔驰、通用、福特、本田、现代、比亚迪。设计win管线堆到了650亿美元。收入的可预见性很高。唯一让人有点犹豫的是毛利率。汽车芯片的定制化程度高，验证周期长，毛利率比手机芯片低5到10个点。汽车收入占比从17%继续往上走，会拖QCT整体毛利率。这个问题不大，但需要持续盯。管理层把2029财年汽车收入目标从80亿调到了100亿。以现在的增速和设计win转化节奏，不算夸张。数据中心：愿景够大，但窗户纸还没捅破在6月24日的投资者日上，高通把2029财年非手机收入目标从220亿美元直接拉到400亿，其中数据中心分走150亿。这笔账拆开看是三步走：第一，定制芯片。两家超大规模云厂商的多代订单已经签了，首款产品年底前出货。管理层管这叫“多年的合作伙伴关系”，不是一锤子买卖。第二，标准芯片。Dragonfly C1000服务器CPU在投资者日上亮了相，自研Oryon架构，主打能效。Meta是第一批客户，但量产要到2028年。第三，软件。收了Modular（估值39亿美元），它的MAX推理平台和Mojo语言要对标英伟达的CUDA。去年底收的Alphawave Semi（24亿美元），补了高速互联这块拼图。摊子铺得很大，但节奏是个问题。连接芯片今年就能贡献收入，定制芯片明年开始，通用AI加速器要到明年下半年，服务器CPU更要等到后年下半年。高盛在投资者日后给了个“中性”评级，12个月目标价145美元，比当前股价还低。它的原话是：早期合作与大规模收入之间仍有很长的距离。坦率说，这个判断不保守。市场给数据中心业务的估值，押的是2028年到2029年，中间两年执行窗口，任何一个环节出问题都会打折。苹果：这个利空比想象中来得快在所有让高通头疼的事情里，苹果自研基带的进度是最被市场低估的。高通这次财报首次明确警告：苹果产品收入在加速流失。管理层在电话会上说，即将发布的iPhone上高通基带的份额会“远低于此前20%的预期”，四季度苹果收入可能环比腰斩。过去五年关于“苹果什么时候踢掉高通基带”的讨论一直没断过，每次都被技术难度拖住了。现在，这个进程正在实质性加速。算一笔账：苹果每季度给高通贡献15到20亿美元的芯片收入（基带加射频前端）。份额从原来大约20%掉到10%以下，每年就是60到80亿美元的高毛利收入没了。Amon的应对是：FY2027非手机QCT收入增速超过60%，直接覆盖苹果流失的影响。汽车、IoT、数据中心三条线得同时跑起来。信不信取决于你对这三块业务增速的判断。我个人觉得汽车那条线最稳，数据中心变数最大。提价：一次没什么退路的测试高通宣布9月1日起全线提价，幅度两位数百分比。阿蒙的措辞是这样的：“成本上去了，价格就得跟着涨。”这不是高通第一次涨价，但这回不太一样。以前提价靠制程升级，新产品卖贵点顺理成章。这次是晶圆、封装、存储、材料全面涨价，内部已经吃不下去了。高通在安卓旗舰芯片上确实有定价权。三星、小米、OPPO、vivo、荣耀的旗舰机离开骁龙几乎没有替代选项。这批客户大概率会接受涨价，再转嫁给消费者。但有个反身性问题。存储涨300%、芯片涨两位数、终端再涨一轮，中低端手机可能涨300到500块人民币。中低端市场本来就对价格敏感，量会不会进一步萎缩？量价之间在互相拉扯。财报显示，FY26Q3毛利率53.77%，一年前是55.56%。提价效果要两个季度后才能看清，最早到FY27Q1才有答案。高通现在大概1800亿美元的市值，手机撑着下限，汽车和IoT兜住了中期确定性，数据中心决定了估值能弹多高。三块业务处在完全不同的阶段，但都在年底到明年初集中迎来验证节点。十二月那个季度，手机会不会如管理层说的那样触底反弹，定制芯片能不能准时出货——这两件事的答案，比投资者日上任一个目标数字都更有分量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCMU":0.6,"TDV":0.6,"QCMD":0.6,"QCOM":2.1,"QCML":0.6,"FTXL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":573200094356776,"gmtCreate":1780976600622,"gmtModify":1780979113698,"author":{"id":"3549118574070267","authorId":"3549118574070267","name":"TorisQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890d40f6aedd0e6f741426de5300dc5e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549118574070267","authorIdStr":"3549118574070267"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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大家跟跟看看","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05ef3242bc8bef49cd58624fe400c5e","width":"1038","height":"1618"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573200094356776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566968230733640,"gmtCreate":1779441252005,"gmtModify":1779441406252,"author":{"id":"3549118574070267","authorId":"3549118574070267","name":"TorisQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890d40f6aedd0e6f741426de5300dc5e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549118574070267","authorIdStr":"3549118574070267"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ibm雄起","listText":"ibm雄起","text":"ibm雄起","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566968230733640","repostId":"1148326456","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148326456","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1779358551,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148326456?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 18:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普政府将向九家量子计算公司提供20亿美元拨款，并持有股份","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148326456","media":"异动解读","summary":"这无疑为公司未来的发展注入了强劲动力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据华尔街日报报道，美国商务部表示，特朗普政府将向九家量子计算公司提供总额为20亿美元的拨款，相关协议还包括美国政府持有股权。此举加速了政府推动这一新兴产业发展的计划，该行业近几个月来已吸引了一波来自投资者和企业的投资热潮。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据悉，商务部已同意将该计划中的10亿美元拨给IBM，该公司在利用量子力学制造计算机的竞赛中处于领先地位，这类计算机解决问题的能力远超传统超级计算机。此外，芯片制造商GlobalFoundries将获得3.75亿美元的资金支持。其余公司预计将获得1亿美元，不过初创企业Diraq预计会获得3800万美元。一批致力于量子计算不同领域的公司预计也将获得资金支持，其中包括上市公司D-Wave Quantum、Rigetti Computing和Infleqition。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">量子计算概念股周四盘前集体大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INFQ\">Infleqtion</a>涨超19%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">Rigetti Computing</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.</a>涨11%，涨超 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QUBT\">Quantum Computing Inc.</a>10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QBTS\">D-Wave Quantum Inc.</a>涨近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>涨8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ac2289c89598d600c72f44dbe9f7647\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"159\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d577f4c998a32655c5ce2eb684874bf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"159\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b6521b7796b49157cc8f82ebe9ae45\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"162\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4721ef025fd7ecd6ec5223b3fe92084b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"159\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcbf449cc9c7600087bd1d87688b2969\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"165\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普政府将向九家量子计算公司提供20亿美元拨款，并持有股份</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-21 18:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据华尔街日报报道，美国商务部表示，特朗普政府将向九家量子计算公司提供总额为20亿美元的拨款，相关协议还包括美国政府持有股权。此举加速了政府推动这一新兴产业发展的计划，该行业近几个月来已吸引了一波来自投资者和企业的投资热潮。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据悉，商务部已同意将该计划中的10亿美元拨给IBM，该公司在利用量子力学制造计算机的竞赛中处于领先地位，这类计算机解决问题的能力远超传统超级计算机。此外，芯片制造商GlobalFoundries将获得3.75亿美元的资金支持。其余公司预计将获得1亿美元，不过初创企业Diraq预计会获得3800万美元。一批致力于量子计算不同领域的公司预计也将获得资金支持，其中包括上市公司D-Wave Quantum、Rigetti Computing和Infleqition。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">量子计算概念股周四盘前集体大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INFQ\">Infleqtion</a>涨超19%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGTI\">Rigetti Computing</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.</a>涨11%，涨超 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QUBT\">Quantum Computing Inc.</a>10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QBTS\">D-Wave Quantum Inc.</a>涨近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>涨8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ac2289c89598d600c72f44dbe9f7647\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"159\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d577f4c998a32655c5ce2eb684874bf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"159\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b6521b7796b49157cc8f82ebe9ae45\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"162\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4721ef025fd7ecd6ec5223b3fe92084b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"159\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcbf449cc9c7600087bd1d87688b2969\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"165\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/985a3ac607766f860df3913f8141a075","relate_stocks":{"QBY":"GraniteShares YieldBoost QBTS ETF","IONX":"2倍做多IONQ ETF-Defiance","QUBX":"2倍做多QUBT ETF-Tradr","IONZ":"2倍做空IONQ ETF-Defiance","QUBT":"Quantum Computing Inc.","IBM":"IBM","RGTI":"Rigetti Computing","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","QBTS":"D-Wave Quantum Inc.","INFQ":"Infleqtion","ARQQ":"Arqit Quantum Inc.","RGTU":"2倍做多RGTI ETF-Tradr","RGTX":"2倍做多RGTI ETF-Defiance","QBTX":"2倍做多QBTS ETF-Tradr","IOYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST IONQ ETF","RGTZ":"2倍做空RGTI ETF-Defiance","LAES":"SEALSQ Corp","QMCO":"昆腾","QBTZ":"2倍做空QBTS ETF-Defiance","RGYY":"GraniteShares YieldBoost RGTI ETF","IONQ":"IONQ Inc.","IONL":"2倍做多IONQ 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