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Angleal
Angleal
·
10-20
有点扯
木头姐最新特斯拉目标价：2031年4400美元！
10月19日，木头姐掌舵的方舟投资更新开源特斯拉估值模型，给出了2031年期望股价约4400美元/股。方舟投资历年特斯拉期望股价及是否达成，老瓦据方舟公开模型整理方舟基准情形下2031年市值约17.5万亿美元，股价约4400美元以下为方舟原文主体全文翻译。基准情形下，到2031年累计部署约800万辆Robotaxi。模型假设特斯拉AI基建累计支出，从2025年12月的约70亿美元，升至2031年末约2250亿美元。
木头姐最新特斯拉目标价：2031年4400美元！
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Angleal
Angleal
·
07-27
过段时间就没动静了
市值登顶榜首、成交突破千亿！长鑫科技上市首日创多项A股纪录
7月27日，$长鑫科技(688825)$开盘大涨超471%，报49.5元/股，总市值达3.31万亿，位居A股第一。
市值登顶榜首、成交突破千亿！长鑫科技上市首日创多项A股纪录
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Angleal
Angleal
·
05-20
工业垃圾
理想失去吸引力了？
用旧世界的地图，找不到新大陆。
理想失去吸引力了？
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Angleal
Angleal
·
04-03
这不是扯淡么
伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡设“收费站”：分级收费、护航通行，油轮过路费每桶1美元起
据知情人士透露，伊朗革命卫队已开始在霍尔木兹海峡对过往船只收取“通行费”，优先放行其认定的“友好国家”船只，而对被视为敌对阵营的船只则可能实施威胁甚至攻击。根据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间3月30日，伊朗议会国家安全委员会通过了拟对霍尔木兹海峡通行船只收费的法案。近日，一艘滞留在波斯湾的油轮被建议更换为巴基斯坦船旗后，可在伊朗海军护送下安全驶离霍尔木兹海峡。
伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡设“收费站”：分级收费、护航通行，油轮过路费每桶1美元起
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Angleal
Angleal
·
04-01
革命卫队[捂脸]
伊朗回应特朗普停火言论，称霍尔木兹海峡不对敌开放
4月1日电，综合法新社、卡塔尔半岛电视台最新报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队4月1日称，霍尔木兹海峡不会对伊朗的“敌人”开放。据法新社报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队当天在一份声明中称，霍尔木兹海峡的局势处于伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军“牢牢的、绝对的”控制之下，且不会对伊朗的“敌人”开放。4月1日早些时候，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发帖称，伊朗方面“刚刚向美国请求停火”。但他表示，只有当霍尔木兹海峡开放时，美方才会“考虑”。 (CCTV国际时讯)
伊朗回应特朗普停火言论，称霍尔木兹海峡不对敌开放
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Angleal
Angleal
·
01-06
$可口可乐(KO)$
啥时候涨
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Angleal
Angleal
·
2025-12-26
$霸王茶姬(CHA)$
刚结婚完，咋就跌了
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Angleal
Angleal
·
2025-12-03
$理想汽车(LI)$
中概就是适合空军
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Angleal
Angleal
·
2025-11-20
$可口可乐(KO)$
基本上就是拿了一个利息
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Angleal
Angleal
·
2025-11-11
$霸王茶姬(CHA)$
做空就对了
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08:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"木头姐最新特斯拉目标价：2031年4400美元！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180730859","media":"瓦砾村夫","summary":"10月19日，木头姐掌舵的方舟投资更新开源特斯拉估值模型，给出了2031年期望股价约4400美元/股。方舟投资历年特斯拉期望股价及是否达成，老瓦据方舟公开模型整理方舟基准情形下2031年市值约17.5万亿美元，股价约4400美元以下为方舟原文主体全文翻译。基准情形下，到2031年累计部署约800万辆Robotaxi。模型假设特斯拉AI基建累计支出，从2025年12月的约70亿美元，升至2031年末约2250亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>10月19日，木头姐（Cathie Wood）掌舵的方舟投资更新开源特斯拉估值模型，给出了2031年期望股价约4400美元/股。对应市值约<strong>17.5万亿美元</strong>，企业价值约16.4万亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>模型在32个独立输入上设分布，模拟公司与股价的可能结果。蒙特卡洛模拟的75分位（牛市）与25分位（熊市）分别约为5000美元与3300美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>作者为Tasha Keeney和Daniel Maguire。原文地址：</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-expected-share-price-for-tesla-2031</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"方舟投资特斯拉2031估值配图\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ca64997d5b4b43f3e966804e65b3a04\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span>方舟投资特斯拉2031估值，来源ARK Invest</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9891390999480b307d1a47baef6fe4ff\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span>特斯拉2026年报proxy中的产品生态示意图，含Robotaxi、Optimus、Semi与储能</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>历年预测对照</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>按拆股后口径，方舟历次公开五年期估值整理如下（含提出时股价、期望/熊/牛，以及预测年是否达成）：</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>说明：2018年那次未单独公布期望值，仅提供了牛熊范围；2021年3月原文期望3000，下表已换成拆股后1000。达成与否按预测年年末收盘（进行中的按至今）对照。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30a81a03c7792fe3a0396782bee641f5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span>方舟投资历年特斯拉期望股价（拆股后口径）及是否达成，老瓦据方舟公开模型整理</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><br/></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"2031年预期股价与市值\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c171e7d4adb66ca8b3cc2797f6e4c6c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span>方舟基准情形下2031年市值约17.5万亿美元，股价约4400美元</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>以下为方舟原文主体全文翻译。预测高度假设，反映方舟对特斯拉的长期正向偏见，不构成投资建议。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>概述与核心结论</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>方舟估计，到2031年，Robotaxi约占特斯拉企业价值的约80%，低于其2024年发布的2029年模型中约90%的占比。主因是：在Robotaxi继续铺开的同时，Optimus的RaaS业务有望迎来拐点。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"2031年企业价值构成示意\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c49c3bef6dffa1cce5ad61dc5e1410a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span>方舟估算Robotaxi约占2031年企业价值八成</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ced02b83c0b371b61c82c1ec39e7c5a4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span>特斯拉Cybercab，来源2026年报代理说明书</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>基准、熊市、牛市输出示例</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>方舟并不单独写死一套“牛市剧本”或“熊市剧本”：二者分别定义为模拟结果的第75与第25百分位。下表是各组情形下较有代表性的一组输出（金额单位与原文一致）。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"方舟特斯拉2031模型输出表\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/75a1e411d68406854db3ae07d659fc92\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span>方舟投资特斯拉模型2031年基准、熊市、牛市输出示例</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>基准情形下，2031年汽车销量约1020万辆；不含积分的电动车收入约3200亿美元；Robotaxi约810万辆，网约车净收入约7530亿美元；储能部署约2278吉瓦时、收入约1630亿美元；累计对外销售Optimus约100万台、Optimus收入约2120亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>总收入约1.449万亿美元，EBITDA约9020亿美元，毛利率约68%，EBITDA利润率约61%。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>企业价值约16.4万亿美元，市值约17.5万亿美元，股价约4400美元，至2031年股价复合年增长率约62%，现金流收益率约4.2%。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>熊市与牛市股价分别约3300美元、5000美元，市值约13.4万亿与20.4万亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>相对上一版模型，改了什么</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>方舟列出五块更新：Robotaxi落地、Robotaxi定价假设、Optimus贡献、AI基建与Terafab开支、模型简化。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>Robotaxi落地</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>特斯拉于2025年6月在得州奥斯汀上线Robotaxi，与上一版模型中概率最高的启动年份一致。此后扩至三个州的七座城市，并在约7个月内完成逾100万英里无监督无人驾驶里程——约为Waymo达到首个百万英里所用时间的约四分之一（文中表述为约4倍快）。特斯拉预期，随着年底前后的FSD V15，爬坡会加快，并把FSD V15视为规模化Robotaxi的关键门槛。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>车队已加入Cybercab。方舟研究认为，凭借垂直整合与纯视觉路线，在同等利用率下，特斯拉每英里运营成本可比Waymo下一代Robotaxi低约40%。若再通过车主车辆扩大供给，利用率上升，成本还能再压。基准情形下，到2031年累计部署约800万辆Robotaxi。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"同等利用率下成本对比\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/38657994e81c63c831a3140392bc1e7d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span>方舟研究称同等利用率下特斯拉Robotaxi成本约低40%</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>Robotaxi定价假设</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>方舟认为，自动驾驶Robotaxi可能把网约车市场扩到远超今天有人驾驶的规模：高利用率、低成本的车辆，能在低于现行网约车价的水平上仍保持盈利，从而触达更广人群。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>今年他们用按收入分层的支付意愿，重新估计了不同价位的市场规模，覆盖面比上一版更宽。动态定价可能带来上行，但模型为保守起见未计入。高收入人群更常在拥堵时段出行，高峰溢价或更站得住；网络也可以在运力紧张时服务高支付意愿乘客，在低峰降价换取覆盖与利用率。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>Optimus的贡献</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克称Optimus将是特斯拉长期最大的价值驱动，方舟研究亦持相近判断。人形机器人可触及的总市场约26万亿美元，大约是Robotaxi所估10万亿至15万亿美元的两倍。2024年模型里，方舟假设到2029年内部部署约3万台人形机器人，可为特斯拉节省约35亿美元成本；本版模型中，对外销售到2031年约达100万台，并贡献约2000亿美元RaaS收入。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ef6fb636c5fb6006dea3f87034f1c68\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><br/></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span>特斯拉Optimus，来源2026年报代理说明书</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>方舟预测远比马斯克“2031年1亿到10亿台Optimus”的口径保守。部分受Robotaxi推进慢于预期的影响，方舟认为Optimus大约到2031年前后才可能达到人类水平熟练度。眼下行业瓶颈仍是真实世界训练数据——人形机器人不像汽车，人工遥控时效用有限，技术里程碑未到之前也难卖出去。特斯拉已启动Optimus Academy，计划在内部用各类任务训练约2万至3万台；再叠加可提供真实训练与测试场景的垂直整合车厂，相对对手有优势。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>达到可制造与安全里程碑之后，能力更可能跟着算力走。方舟研究认为，Optimus约在2031年、约4000兆瓦（约4吉瓦）算力时触及人类水平熟练度。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>AI基建与Terafab开支</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>自2024年模型以来，AI竞赛加剧，电力与算力成了关键分野。2026年模型新增AI基建科目，用以驱动Optimus表现。马斯克称，推理与训练芯片供给将是长期约束。特斯拉与SpaceX已同意联合推进Terafab：SpaceX更可能承担尚未公布的资本承诺中更大一块，铺开地面与轨道高产量制造；特斯拉侧重初期研究臂，估约30亿美元。模型假设特斯拉AI基建累计支出，从2025年12月的约70亿美元，升至2031年末约2250亿美元。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"AI基建累计支出\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50583989a83e0f5a7f2df9b810081eda\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span>方舟模型假设特斯拉AI基建累计支出升至约2250亿美元</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>模型简化</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>相对上一版，方舟拿掉了有人驾驶网约车、保险等业务线，对股价目标影响可忽略。此外，美国网约车定价权与利润潜力更高，特斯拉更可能优先美国Robotaxi，中国Robotaxi运营已从模型中移除。最后，模型计入马斯克股权激励的充分稀释，并假设在估值期内归属——方舟称之为双赢。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>Tesla Semi</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2026年9月，Semi在内华达超级工厂进入批量生产。特斯拉已有约2500辆订单，几乎相当于美国现有电动Class 8卡车保有量的两倍。自动驾驶卡车到2030年或可达约3200亿美元可及市场，但特斯拉表态优先高产量Robotaxi；方舟估计后者规模化后大约是前者的12倍。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>FSD授权</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>截至2026年6月30日，FSD活跃订阅约150万，并已扩展至8个欧洲国家。方舟仍认为，大部分价值更可能来自商业Robotaxi，而非卖给车主或第三方的FSD授权。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>特斯拉与SpaceX合并</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>模型仍按特斯拉独立主体评估，但未来五年内不排除与SpaceX合并。特斯拉高造血的Robotaxi网络或可资助SpaceX的轨道数据中心；SpaceX偏算力的前沿AI模型，又可能成为Optimus部署的规划层。双方在Terafab上协作，有望缓解芯片约束。方舟估算，合并后到2031年或可合计贡献约3.8万亿美元收入、约2.7万亿美元EBIT，其中SpaceX大约占收入的62%、EBIT的69%。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"SpaceX与特斯拉合并收入EBIT构成\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b35258f8337a72ffa502dfef2d3e006f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span>方舟估算合并情形下SpaceX约占2031年收入62%、EBIT69%</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>风险与模型局限</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>对预测的最大风险，仍是Robotaxi爬坡慢于预期——监管拖延，或突发变故（例如关键人物突然离开、自然灾害、疫情）。眼下Robotaxi安全性相对有人驾驶车正在改善，监管风险在方舟看来似在减弱。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><strong>结语</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>方舟给出的特斯拉2031年股价目标约为4400美元/股。模型已公开在GitHub，欢迎读者自行改假设、跑模拟、做可视化。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>文中预测与估价可随时由方舟修订，仅反映当前预期；针对大盘与个股的预测，并不代表任何方舟管理产品或组合的特征。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>预测属假设、高度推测，存在诸多风险与局限：依赖第三方数据可能不完整或不准确；模型本身可能含主观偏差与计算误差；未充分反映重大经济与市场因素。结果仅供说明，不保证准确，亦未计入持有特斯拉股份的相关费用。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>方舟对特斯拉持长期正面偏见，读者务必极度谨慎。方舟与标的公司无投行、咨询等直接业务关系。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"新Roadster概念图\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/123f8a126680a16d8fe4566f09795180\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span>特斯拉新Roadster相关视觉，来源2026年报proxy</span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><br/></span></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span><br/></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>全文翻译整理：瓦砾老瓦</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>本文信息不构成投资建议，仅供参考。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>原文与数据来源：</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>ARK Invest《ARK’s Expected Share Price For Tesla In 2031》（2026年10月19日）；</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>历年目标据方舟历次公开估值模型按拆股后口径整理；</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>产品图引自特斯拉向SEC提交的2026年报代理说明书（tm2626016d2_ars.pdf）。</span></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1649056886487","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>木头姐最新特斯拉目标价：2031年4400美元！</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n木头姐最新特斯拉目标价：2031年4400美元！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-10-20 08:41 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b0nEG3aaISzuMI8UWZz_DA><strong>瓦砾村夫</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>10月19日，木头姐（Cathie Wood）掌舵的方舟投资更新开源特斯拉估值模型，给出了2031年期望股价约4400美元/股。对应市值约17.5万亿美元，企业价值约16.4万亿美元。模型在32个独立输入上设分布，模拟公司与股价的可能结果。蒙特卡洛模拟的75分位（牛市）与25分位（熊市）分别约为5000美元与3300美元。作者为Tasha Keeney和Daniel Maguire。原文地址：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b0nEG3aaISzuMI8UWZz_DA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"TLA":"GraniteShares Autocallable TSLA ETF","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","ELOL":"Leverage Shares 100% TSLA and 100% SPCX Daily ETF","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TESC":"Corgi TSLA 2x Daily ETF","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","09366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉-U","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","07366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b0nEG3aaISzuMI8UWZz_DA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180730859","content_text":"10月19日，木头姐（Cathie Wood）掌舵的方舟投资更新开源特斯拉估值模型，给出了2031年期望股价约4400美元/股。对应市值约17.5万亿美元，企业价值约16.4万亿美元。模型在32个独立输入上设分布，模拟公司与股价的可能结果。蒙特卡洛模拟的75分位（牛市）与25分位（熊市）分别约为5000美元与3300美元。作者为Tasha Keeney和Daniel Maguire。原文地址：https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-expected-share-price-for-tesla-2031方舟投资特斯拉2031估值，来源ARK Invest特斯拉2026年报proxy中的产品生态示意图，含Robotaxi、Optimus、Semi与储能历年预测对照按拆股后口径，方舟历次公开五年期估值整理如下（含提出时股价、期望/熊/牛，以及预测年是否达成）：说明：2018年那次未单独公布期望值，仅提供了牛熊范围；2021年3月原文期望3000，下表已换成拆股后1000。达成与否按预测年年末收盘（进行中的按至今）对照。方舟投资历年特斯拉期望股价（拆股后口径）及是否达成，老瓦据方舟公开模型整理方舟基准情形下2031年市值约17.5万亿美元，股价约4400美元以下为方舟原文主体全文翻译。预测高度假设，反映方舟对特斯拉的长期正向偏见，不构成投资建议。概述与核心结论方舟估计，到2031年，Robotaxi约占特斯拉企业价值的约80%，低于其2024年发布的2029年模型中约90%的占比。主因是：在Robotaxi继续铺开的同时，Optimus的RaaS业务有望迎来拐点。方舟估算Robotaxi约占2031年企业价值八成特斯拉Cybercab，来源2026年报代理说明书基准、熊市、牛市输出示例方舟并不单独写死一套“牛市剧本”或“熊市剧本”：二者分别定义为模拟结果的第75与第25百分位。下表是各组情形下较有代表性的一组输出（金额单位与原文一致）。方舟投资特斯拉模型2031年基准、熊市、牛市输出示例基准情形下，2031年汽车销量约1020万辆；不含积分的电动车收入约3200亿美元；Robotaxi约810万辆，网约车净收入约7530亿美元；储能部署约2278吉瓦时、收入约1630亿美元；累计对外销售Optimus约100万台、Optimus收入约2120亿美元。总收入约1.449万亿美元，EBITDA约9020亿美元，毛利率约68%，EBITDA利润率约61%。企业价值约16.4万亿美元，市值约17.5万亿美元，股价约4400美元，至2031年股价复合年增长率约62%，现金流收益率约4.2%。熊市与牛市股价分别约3300美元、5000美元，市值约13.4万亿与20.4万亿美元。相对上一版模型，改了什么方舟列出五块更新：Robotaxi落地、Robotaxi定价假设、Optimus贡献、AI基建与Terafab开支、模型简化。Robotaxi落地特斯拉于2025年6月在得州奥斯汀上线Robotaxi，与上一版模型中概率最高的启动年份一致。此后扩至三个州的七座城市，并在约7个月内完成逾100万英里无监督无人驾驶里程——约为Waymo达到首个百万英里所用时间的约四分之一（文中表述为约4倍快）。特斯拉预期，随着年底前后的FSD V15，爬坡会加快，并把FSD V15视为规模化Robotaxi的关键门槛。车队已加入Cybercab。方舟研究认为，凭借垂直整合与纯视觉路线，在同等利用率下，特斯拉每英里运营成本可比Waymo下一代Robotaxi低约40%。若再通过车主车辆扩大供给，利用率上升，成本还能再压。基准情形下，到2031年累计部署约800万辆Robotaxi。方舟研究称同等利用率下特斯拉Robotaxi成本约低40%Robotaxi定价假设方舟认为，自动驾驶Robotaxi可能把网约车市场扩到远超今天有人驾驶的规模：高利用率、低成本的车辆，能在低于现行网约车价的水平上仍保持盈利，从而触达更广人群。今年他们用按收入分层的支付意愿，重新估计了不同价位的市场规模，覆盖面比上一版更宽。动态定价可能带来上行，但模型为保守起见未计入。高收入人群更常在拥堵时段出行，高峰溢价或更站得住；网络也可以在运力紧张时服务高支付意愿乘客，在低峰降价换取覆盖与利用率。Optimus的贡献马斯克称Optimus将是特斯拉长期最大的价值驱动，方舟研究亦持相近判断。人形机器人可触及的总市场约26万亿美元，大约是Robotaxi所估10万亿至15万亿美元的两倍。2024年模型里，方舟假设到2029年内部部署约3万台人形机器人，可为特斯拉节省约35亿美元成本；本版模型中，对外销售到2031年约达100万台，并贡献约2000亿美元RaaS收入。特斯拉Optimus，来源2026年报代理说明书方舟预测远比马斯克“2031年1亿到10亿台Optimus”的口径保守。部分受Robotaxi推进慢于预期的影响，方舟认为Optimus大约到2031年前后才可能达到人类水平熟练度。眼下行业瓶颈仍是真实世界训练数据——人形机器人不像汽车，人工遥控时效用有限，技术里程碑未到之前也难卖出去。特斯拉已启动Optimus Academy，计划在内部用各类任务训练约2万至3万台；再叠加可提供真实训练与测试场景的垂直整合车厂，相对对手有优势。达到可制造与安全里程碑之后，能力更可能跟着算力走。方舟研究认为，Optimus约在2031年、约4000兆瓦（约4吉瓦）算力时触及人类水平熟练度。AI基建与Terafab开支自2024年模型以来，AI竞赛加剧，电力与算力成了关键分野。2026年模型新增AI基建科目，用以驱动Optimus表现。马斯克称，推理与训练芯片供给将是长期约束。特斯拉与SpaceX已同意联合推进Terafab：SpaceX更可能承担尚未公布的资本承诺中更大一块，铺开地面与轨道高产量制造；特斯拉侧重初期研究臂，估约30亿美元。模型假设特斯拉AI基建累计支出，从2025年12月的约70亿美元，升至2031年末约2250亿美元。方舟模型假设特斯拉AI基建累计支出升至约2250亿美元模型简化相对上一版，方舟拿掉了有人驾驶网约车、保险等业务线，对股价目标影响可忽略。此外，美国网约车定价权与利润潜力更高，特斯拉更可能优先美国Robotaxi，中国Robotaxi运营已从模型中移除。最后，模型计入马斯克股权激励的充分稀释，并假设在估值期内归属——方舟称之为双赢。Tesla Semi2026年9月，Semi在内华达超级工厂进入批量生产。特斯拉已有约2500辆订单，几乎相当于美国现有电动Class 8卡车保有量的两倍。自动驾驶卡车到2030年或可达约3200亿美元可及市场，但特斯拉表态优先高产量Robotaxi；方舟估计后者规模化后大约是前者的12倍。FSD授权截至2026年6月30日，FSD活跃订阅约150万，并已扩展至8个欧洲国家。方舟仍认为，大部分价值更可能来自商业Robotaxi，而非卖给车主或第三方的FSD授权。特斯拉与SpaceX合并模型仍按特斯拉独立主体评估，但未来五年内不排除与SpaceX合并。特斯拉高造血的Robotaxi网络或可资助SpaceX的轨道数据中心；SpaceX偏算力的前沿AI模型，又可能成为Optimus部署的规划层。双方在Terafab上协作，有望缓解芯片约束。方舟估算，合并后到2031年或可合计贡献约3.8万亿美元收入、约2.7万亿美元EBIT，其中SpaceX大约占收入的62%、EBIT的69%。方舟估算合并情形下SpaceX约占2031年收入62%、EBIT69%风险与模型局限对预测的最大风险，仍是Robotaxi爬坡慢于预期——监管拖延，或突发变故（例如关键人物突然离开、自然灾害、疫情）。眼下Robotaxi安全性相对有人驾驶车正在改善，监管风险在方舟看来似在减弱。结语方舟给出的特斯拉2031年股价目标约为4400美元/股。模型已公开在GitHub，欢迎读者自行改假设、跑模拟、做可视化。文中预测与估价可随时由方舟修订，仅反映当前预期；针对大盘与个股的预测，并不代表任何方舟管理产品或组合的特征。预测属假设、高度推测，存在诸多风险与局限：依赖第三方数据可能不完整或不准确；模型本身可能含主观偏差与计算误差；未充分反映重大经济与市场因素。结果仅供说明，不保证准确，亦未计入持有特斯拉股份的相关费用。方舟对特斯拉持长期正面偏见，读者务必极度谨慎。方舟与标的公司无投行、咨询等直接业务关系。特斯拉新Roadster相关视觉，来源2026年报proxy全文翻译整理：瓦砾老瓦本文信息不构成投资建议，仅供参考。原文与数据来源：ARK Invest《ARK’s Expected Share Price For Tesla In 2031》（2026年10月19日）；历年目标据方舟历次公开估值模型按拆股后口径整理；产品图引自特斯拉向SEC提交的2026年报代理说明书（tm2626016d2_ars.pdf）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLA":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"09766":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"07366":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"ELOL":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TESC":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"09366":0.6,"TSLA":2,"TESL":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSII":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590437765239088,"gmtCreate":1785118236628,"gmtModify":1785118238611,"author":{"id":"3537225275822985","authorId":"3537225275822985","name":"Angleal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb1f6820f1a35cfc1a349583f399457","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3537225275822985","idStr":"3537225275822985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"过段时间就没动静了","listText":"过段时间就没动静了","text":"过段时间就没动静了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590437765239088","repostId":"1119499092","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119499092","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785115676,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119499092?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-27 09:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"市值登顶榜首、成交突破千亿！长鑫科技上市首日创多项A股纪录","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119499092","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月27日，$长鑫科技(688825)$开盘大涨超471%，报49.5元/股，总市值达3.31万亿，位居A股第一。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月27日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688825\">长鑫科技</a>开盘大涨超471%，总市值达3.31万亿，位居A股第一；盘中成交额突破1000亿元，成为A股历史首支单日成交额突破1000亿元的个股；现涨超500%，换手超55%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50c748554a3896f0db488367387fa44c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据了解，部分投资者反映，开盘不久时交易出现卡顿，无法交易，也不能撤单，不久后开始陆续恢复。有券商营业部负责人称，的确出现了卡顿现象，“没有这么大交易量的新股”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">长鑫科技今日挂牌，成为科创板规模最大IPO。IPO发行价8.66元，发行后总股本为668.81亿股（超额配售选择权行使前），发行总市值为5791.88亿元。但市场显然不打算在这个价格停留。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">东北证券分析师李玖在研报中，从三个相互独立的视角为长鑫估值，结论收敛在3.2～5.7万亿人民币区间。同日，野村证券首次覆盖给出买入评级，目标价116元，隐含涨幅1239%，对应市值约7.76万亿——是东北证券上限的1.4倍。两家机构分歧的核心，在于对长鑫远期份额天花板的判断——东北证券基准假设17%，野村则押注更大的份额空间与更高的成长溢价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上述估值或许并不夸张。长鑫是A股迄今独特的存在：纯DRAM IDM龙头，手握设计与制造全链条能力，正处于“周期反转+份额提升”的业绩爆发期。公司产品覆盖DDR4/5及LPDDR4X/5/5X，产品已进入阿里、腾讯、字节及主流手机供应链。据Omdia数据，2025年四季度公司全球市占率7.67%，中国第一、全球第四。受益存储涨价与高端产品放量，公司业绩弹性加速释放。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DRAM供需缺口持续，长鑫兼具“量价齐升+国产替代”双重红利。真正问题不在于它值不值钱，而在于该用哪把尺子量。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市值登顶榜首、成交突破千亿！长鑫科技上市首日创多项A股纪录</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市值登顶榜首、成交突破千亿！长鑫科技上市首日创多项A股纪录\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-27 09:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月27日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688825\">长鑫科技</a>开盘大涨超471%，总市值达3.31万亿，位居A股第一；盘中成交额突破1000亿元，成为A股历史首支单日成交额突破1000亿元的个股；现涨超500%，换手超55%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50c748554a3896f0db488367387fa44c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据了解，部分投资者反映，开盘不久时交易出现卡顿，无法交易，也不能撤单，不久后开始陆续恢复。有券商营业部负责人称，的确出现了卡顿现象，“没有这么大交易量的新股”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">长鑫科技今日挂牌，成为科创板规模最大IPO。IPO发行价8.66元，发行后总股本为668.81亿股（超额配售选择权行使前），发行总市值为5791.88亿元。但市场显然不打算在这个价格停留。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">东北证券分析师李玖在研报中，从三个相互独立的视角为长鑫估值，结论收敛在3.2～5.7万亿人民币区间。同日，野村证券首次覆盖给出买入评级，目标价116元，隐含涨幅1239%，对应市值约7.76万亿——是东北证券上限的1.4倍。两家机构分歧的核心，在于对长鑫远期份额天花板的判断——东北证券基准假设17%，野村则押注更大的份额空间与更高的成长溢价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上述估值或许并不夸张。长鑫是A股迄今独特的存在：纯DRAM IDM龙头，手握设计与制造全链条能力，正处于“周期反转+份额提升”的业绩爆发期。公司产品覆盖DDR4/5及LPDDR4X/5/5X，产品已进入阿里、腾讯、字节及主流手机供应链。据Omdia数据，2025年四季度公司全球市占率7.67%，中国第一、全球第四。受益存储涨价与高端产品放量，公司业绩弹性加速释放。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DRAM供需缺口持续，长鑫兼具“量价齐升+国产替代”双重红利。真正问题不在于它值不值钱，而在于该用哪把尺子量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"159982":"中证500","688825":"长鑫科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119499092","content_text":"7月27日，长鑫科技开盘大涨超471%，总市值达3.31万亿，位居A股第一；盘中成交额突破1000亿元，成为A股历史首支单日成交额突破1000亿元的个股；现涨超500%，换手超55%。据了解，部分投资者反映，开盘不久时交易出现卡顿，无法交易，也不能撤单，不久后开始陆续恢复。有券商营业部负责人称，的确出现了卡顿现象，“没有这么大交易量的新股”。长鑫科技今日挂牌，成为科创板规模最大IPO。IPO发行价8.66元，发行后总股本为668.81亿股（超额配售选择权行使前），发行总市值为5791.88亿元。但市场显然不打算在这个价格停留。东北证券分析师李玖在研报中，从三个相互独立的视角为长鑫估值，结论收敛在3.2～5.7万亿人民币区间。同日，野村证券首次覆盖给出买入评级，目标价116元，隐含涨幅1239%，对应市值约7.76万亿——是东北证券上限的1.4倍。两家机构分歧的核心，在于对长鑫远期份额天花板的判断——东北证券基准假设17%，野村则押注更大的份额空间与更高的成长溢价。上述估值或许并不夸张。长鑫是A股迄今独特的存在：纯DRAM IDM龙头，手握设计与制造全链条能力，正处于“周期反转+份额提升”的业绩爆发期。公司产品覆盖DDR4/5及LPDDR4X/5/5X，产品已进入阿里、腾讯、字节及主流手机供应链。据Omdia数据，2025年四季度公司全球市占率7.67%，中国第一、全球第四。受益存储涨价与高端产品放量，公司业绩弹性加速释放。DRAM供需缺口持续，长鑫兼具“量价齐升+国产替代”双重红利。真正问题不在于它值不值钱，而在于该用哪把尺子量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159982":0.5,"688825":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566201314457496,"gmtCreate":1779267134171,"gmtModify":1779268651169,"author":{"id":"3537225275822985","authorId":"3537225275822985","name":"Angleal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb1f6820f1a35cfc1a349583f399457","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3537225275822985","idStr":"3537225275822985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"工业垃圾","listText":"工业垃圾","text":"工业垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566201314457496","repostId":"2636852453","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2636852453","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779201025,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2636852453?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-19 22:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"理想失去吸引力了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2636852453","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"用旧世界的地图，找不到新大陆。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>用旧世界的地图，找不到新大陆。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三天前的2026年5月15日，理想L9 Livis正式登台，这是理想倾注近两年最多心血，寄予厚望的增程家族旗舰。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当天下午四点整，发布会进入尾声，L9 Livis公布售价，恰逢港股市场进入周五尾盘集合竞价阶段，最后收盘并没有出现太大波动。但当5月18日周一开盘，理想股价下挫逾14%，第二天继续走低约5个百分点。两天时间跌去18%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原本，这款车被理想视为年度最重要的催化剂，内部希望借L9换代，夺回高端市场份额。但单从资本市场的走势来看，分歧不小。投资者对理想的怀疑升温。要知道，理想的股价已经从半年前128港元的相对高点一路回调过半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但理想真的失去吸引力，开始走偏了吗？答案是否定的。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2913676291\" style=\"text-align: left;\">市场在担心什么</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">股价失守，是理想的价值回归均值，还是遭遇错杀。首先要搞清楚两根阴线里，投资者究竟在担心什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这次，理想L9推出了两个版本，45.98万元的Ultra和50.98万元的Livis版本，其中Livis版比预售价下调5万元，且首发销售期内进一步优惠2万元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一降幅被消费者认为是诚意之举，但在券商看来，这样的价格仍不够激进。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">发布会后，部分机构表示出对新理想L9的不看好。花旗表示，即便让利7万元，L9 Livis 的性价比仍然仅仅与同级别对手持平。摩根士丹利指出，六座 SUV 市场已然是红海市场，蔚来、小鹏、问界M9 以及极氪 9X 等对手林立。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据此，花旗分别为Ultra和Livis版给出4000台和1000台的月销预测。市场似乎听信了，但现实很快站在了对立面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据渠道人士指出，新L9上市后72小时后，周末进店量迎来高峰，客户表示Livis版价格较原本预期还低3万元。并且，老车主增换购比例超过门店预期，带动试驾量暴涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">销售版本的比例上，livis与Ultra版呈现9:1，门店反馈称，客户普遍选择 livis 版本，对800V 主动悬架、固态激光雷达和轮毂感知度最强，客户认为 livis 配置性价比更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">理想汽车产品线负责人汤靖印证了这点，“发布会上，可能因为我们大部分时间都在聊 Livis，结果 90% 的用户都选了 Livis 版本，双色选装率也远超预期”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>花旗对L9 livis“越贵越难卖”、旗舰产品吸引力不足的判断也不攻自破。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但热钱大多都是短视的。</strong>从投资者的角度来看，市场的确希望理想在历经波动后，掷出一个新爆款力挽狂澜，将销量和利润快速推回上升渠道。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">理想2025年财报显示，理想去年总销量减少了18.8%；单车价格也同比少了1.4万元，来到26.26万元。因为i6等入门级产品放量，曾经理想品牌的高毛利、高确定性增长逻辑被扰动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为了稳住局面，理想2026年的战略重心转向了增程产品，纯电新品只留一款。这种战略可以理解为在最熟悉的领域，集中火力打歼灭战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">只是随着越来越多竞争者的涌入，增程赛道也成了红海。有行业研究人士指出，蔚小理、小米、深蓝、极氪的月交付量在2.9-3.4万台上下浮动，差距并不大，这意味着一款产品的成功或失误，就可能引发座次洗牌。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，投资者希望新L9能对竞品“一击毙命”，复现三年前初代产品，既走量也能贡献高利润的奇迹。顺势扭转行业价格战、原料成本上涨带来的压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，此时李想的战略主线已经转向AI，公司在研发的投入逆势加码，2026 年研发费用指引达 120 亿元，其中 AI 相关投入占比达一半。短期来看研发开支大幅攀升将侵蚀利润表。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，内部对新L9的叙事变为“具身智能第一车”。直觉上，似乎远不如“堆料降价”来的性感。二级市场的担忧因此上升。<strong>然而，若用旧世界的地图，永远找不到新大陆。李想直言：“理想汽车做 AI，不是冒险。不做才是冒险。” </strong></p><h2 id=\"id_469790451\" style=\"text-align: left;\">旧图难觅新大陆</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">年初，李想开了一场全员会，强调 “2026 年是所有想要成为 AI 头部公司上车的最后一年”，最晚 2028 年 L4 一定落地，同时明确会做人形机器人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他规划了一张15年的蓝图：上半场自动驾驶，下半场人形机器人，最终 2040 年抵达 AGI。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于AI，理想是认真的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年财报显示，理想全年研发投入113.15亿，同比增加了2.2%，创下了公司历史新高。平均每三天就要花掉一个亿去做研发。在主营业务经营现金流转负的年份，无疑是激进的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在行业里，这被称为反周期投入。而这种反周期投入，也让大家看到了苹果和特斯拉早年的影子。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回溯2001年，被互联网泡沫破裂阵痛裹挟的苹果，反向的加码研发几年后孕育出了iPhone手机；2016年，特斯拉在面临连续亏损、产能不足、技术事故及战略投资困境等多重挑战下，硬生生拿出营收的13%投入研发，最后造出了全球爆款Model3。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>早年的理想，在行业纷纷不看好增程技术时选择坚守，选择相信自己对市场需求的判断，最终等来了市场大爆发，成了彼时新势力一哥。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如今虽重新回到行业低谷期，但理想依旧思路清晰。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“进入竞争后期，同质化越来越严重，聚集度越来越高。这时要比别人做得更有差异化，就不能在上层”。理想汽车CTO谢炎向华尔街见闻表示，上层的东西容易被复制，且能做的空间也愈发逼仄，越往底层、越垂直整合，壁垒越高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谢炎透露，理想很早就有了这样的战略布局，“就是要往底层走，要往更难、更核心的方面走”。新L9 Livis就是第一枪。李想表示，理想在过去四年几乎重构了整车底盘系统，自研5纳米马赫 M100 芯片双芯组合算力达 2560TOPS。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谢炎提到，苹果之所以能在手机行业独占鳌头，就是因为芯片与操作系统结合，提供远超同行的能力。“我们的出发点是，必须具备超出他人的能力”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一边，理想的研发投入切到了AI硬件与具身智能，相当一部分已经投到了车之外的方向，这是理想AI战略的第二曲线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>可以说，理想正在用今天的研发开支，去换未来的话语权。更何况，理想账上还手握1010亿元的现金（截至2025年底）。这不是理想的退路，是入场券。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>理想的成长路径一直遵循同一逻辑：早期押注家庭市场和增程技术，理想ONE热卖后有了财力研发L系列；汽车业务站稳脚跟后，又把利润投入操作系统自研、模型自研、芯片自研。每一步都是上一步的结果。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">有业内人士表示，以中国现有的汽车产业链，孵化出一个新丰田、大众并不难。但中国车企能否在具身智能时代，再造一个保时捷或宝马、奔驰，这就需要提早一步落子。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，理想并没有与其他车企一样，将研发成本资本化慢慢分摊，而是选择直接费用化一次性扛下来。虽然当前账期业绩承压，但未来一旦产品纷纷出牌，利润的弹性会非常大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这意味着，接下来随着理想稳住增程基本盘、纯电车型放量、具身智能第二曲线最终若能如愿落地，它的业绩就将画出一道高斜率的增长曲线。那时候，也将是新旧时代交替的拐点。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n理想失去吸引力了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-19 22:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>用旧世界的地图，找不到新大陆。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三天前的2026年5月15日，理想L9 Livis正式登台，这是理想倾注近两年最多心血，寄予厚望的增程家族旗舰。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当天下午四点整，发布会进入尾声，L9 Livis公布售价，恰逢港股市场进入周五尾盘集合竞价阶段，最后收盘并没有出现太大波动。但当5月18日周一开盘，理想股价下挫逾14%，第二天继续走低约5个百分点。两天时间跌去18%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原本，这款车被理想视为年度最重要的催化剂，内部希望借L9换代，夺回高端市场份额。但单从资本市场的走势来看，分歧不小。投资者对理想的怀疑升温。要知道，理想的股价已经从半年前128港元的相对高点一路回调过半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但理想真的失去吸引力，开始走偏了吗？答案是否定的。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2913676291\" style=\"text-align: left;\">市场在担心什么</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">股价失守，是理想的价值回归均值，还是遭遇错杀。首先要搞清楚两根阴线里，投资者究竟在担心什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这次，理想L9推出了两个版本，45.98万元的Ultra和50.98万元的Livis版本，其中Livis版比预售价下调5万元，且首发销售期内进一步优惠2万元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一降幅被消费者认为是诚意之举，但在券商看来，这样的价格仍不够激进。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">发布会后，部分机构表示出对新理想L9的不看好。花旗表示，即便让利7万元，L9 Livis 的性价比仍然仅仅与同级别对手持平。摩根士丹利指出，六座 SUV 市场已然是红海市场，蔚来、小鹏、问界M9 以及极氪 9X 等对手林立。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据此，花旗分别为Ultra和Livis版给出4000台和1000台的月销预测。市场似乎听信了，但现实很快站在了对立面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据渠道人士指出，新L9上市后72小时后，周末进店量迎来高峰，客户表示Livis版价格较原本预期还低3万元。并且，老车主增换购比例超过门店预期，带动试驾量暴涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">销售版本的比例上，livis与Ultra版呈现9:1，门店反馈称，客户普遍选择 livis 版本，对800V 主动悬架、固态激光雷达和轮毂感知度最强，客户认为 livis 配置性价比更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">理想汽车产品线负责人汤靖印证了这点，“发布会上，可能因为我们大部分时间都在聊 Livis，结果 90% 的用户都选了 Livis 版本，双色选装率也远超预期”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>花旗对L9 livis“越贵越难卖”、旗舰产品吸引力不足的判断也不攻自破。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但热钱大多都是短视的。</strong>从投资者的角度来看，市场的确希望理想在历经波动后，掷出一个新爆款力挽狂澜，将销量和利润快速推回上升渠道。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">理想2025年财报显示，理想去年总销量减少了18.8%；单车价格也同比少了1.4万元，来到26.26万元。因为i6等入门级产品放量，曾经理想品牌的高毛利、高确定性增长逻辑被扰动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为了稳住局面，理想2026年的战略重心转向了增程产品，纯电新品只留一款。这种战略可以理解为在最熟悉的领域，集中火力打歼灭战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">只是随着越来越多竞争者的涌入，增程赛道也成了红海。有行业研究人士指出，蔚小理、小米、深蓝、极氪的月交付量在2.9-3.4万台上下浮动，差距并不大，这意味着一款产品的成功或失误，就可能引发座次洗牌。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，投资者希望新L9能对竞品“一击毙命”，复现三年前初代产品，既走量也能贡献高利润的奇迹。顺势扭转行业价格战、原料成本上涨带来的压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，此时李想的战略主线已经转向AI，公司在研发的投入逆势加码，2026 年研发费用指引达 120 亿元，其中 AI 相关投入占比达一半。短期来看研发开支大幅攀升将侵蚀利润表。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，内部对新L9的叙事变为“具身智能第一车”。直觉上，似乎远不如“堆料降价”来的性感。二级市场的担忧因此上升。<strong>然而，若用旧世界的地图，永远找不到新大陆。李想直言：“理想汽车做 AI，不是冒险。不做才是冒险。” </strong></p><h2 id=\"id_469790451\" style=\"text-align: left;\">旧图难觅新大陆</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">年初，李想开了一场全员会，强调 “2026 年是所有想要成为 AI 头部公司上车的最后一年”，最晚 2028 年 L4 一定落地，同时明确会做人形机器人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他规划了一张15年的蓝图：上半场自动驾驶，下半场人形机器人，最终 2040 年抵达 AGI。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于AI，理想是认真的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年财报显示，理想全年研发投入113.15亿，同比增加了2.2%，创下了公司历史新高。平均每三天就要花掉一个亿去做研发。在主营业务经营现金流转负的年份，无疑是激进的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在行业里，这被称为反周期投入。而这种反周期投入，也让大家看到了苹果和特斯拉早年的影子。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回溯2001年，被互联网泡沫破裂阵痛裹挟的苹果，反向的加码研发几年后孕育出了iPhone手机；2016年，特斯拉在面临连续亏损、产能不足、技术事故及战略投资困境等多重挑战下，硬生生拿出营收的13%投入研发，最后造出了全球爆款Model3。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>早年的理想，在行业纷纷不看好增程技术时选择坚守，选择相信自己对市场需求的判断，最终等来了市场大爆发，成了彼时新势力一哥。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如今虽重新回到行业低谷期，但理想依旧思路清晰。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“进入竞争后期，同质化越来越严重，聚集度越来越高。这时要比别人做得更有差异化，就不能在上层”。理想汽车CTO谢炎向华尔街见闻表示，上层的东西容易被复制，且能做的空间也愈发逼仄，越往底层、越垂直整合，壁垒越高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谢炎透露，理想很早就有了这样的战略布局，“就是要往底层走，要往更难、更核心的方面走”。新L9 Livis就是第一枪。李想表示，理想在过去四年几乎重构了整车底盘系统，自研5纳米马赫 M100 芯片双芯组合算力达 2560TOPS。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谢炎提到，苹果之所以能在手机行业独占鳌头，就是因为芯片与操作系统结合，提供远超同行的能力。“我们的出发点是，必须具备超出他人的能力”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一边，理想的研发投入切到了AI硬件与具身智能，相当一部分已经投到了车之外的方向，这是理想AI战略的第二曲线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>可以说，理想正在用今天的研发开支，去换未来的话语权。更何况，理想账上还手握1010亿元的现金（截至2025年底）。这不是理想的退路，是入场券。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>理想的成长路径一直遵循同一逻辑：早期押注家庭市场和增程技术，理想ONE热卖后有了财力研发L系列；汽车业务站稳脚跟后，又把利润投入操作系统自研、模型自研、芯片自研。每一步都是上一步的结果。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">有业内人士表示，以中国现有的汽车产业链，孵化出一个新丰田、大众并不难。但中国车企能否在具身智能时代，再造一个保时捷或宝马、奔驰，这就需要提早一步落子。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，理想并没有与其他车企一样，将研发成本资本化慢慢分摊，而是选择直接费用化一次性扛下来。虽然当前账期业绩承压，但未来一旦产品纷纷出牌，利润的弹性会非常大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这意味着，接下来随着理想稳住增程基本盘、纯电车型放量、具身智能第二曲线最终若能如愿落地，它的业绩就将画出一道高斜率的增长曲线。那时候，也将是新旧时代交替的拐点。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) 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Livis公布售价，恰逢港股市场进入周五尾盘集合竞价阶段，最后收盘并没有出现太大波动。但当5月18日周一开盘，理想股价下挫逾14%，第二天继续走低约5个百分点。两天时间跌去18%。原本，这款车被理想视为年度最重要的催化剂，内部希望借L9换代，夺回高端市场份额。但单从资本市场的走势来看，分歧不小。投资者对理想的怀疑升温。要知道，理想的股价已经从半年前128港元的相对高点一路回调过半。但理想真的失去吸引力，开始走偏了吗？答案是否定的。市场在担心什么股价失守，是理想的价值回归均值，还是遭遇错杀。首先要搞清楚两根阴线里，投资者究竟在担心什么？这次，理想L9推出了两个版本，45.98万元的Ultra和50.98万元的Livis版本，其中Livis版比预售价下调5万元，且首发销售期内进一步优惠2万元。这一降幅被消费者认为是诚意之举，但在券商看来，这样的价格仍不够激进。发布会后，部分机构表示出对新理想L9的不看好。花旗表示，即便让利7万元，L9 Livis 的性价比仍然仅仅与同级别对手持平。摩根士丹利指出，六座 SUV 市场已然是红海市场，蔚来、小鹏、问界M9 以及极氪 9X 等对手林立。据此，花旗分别为Ultra和Livis版给出4000台和1000台的月销预测。市场似乎听信了，但现实很快站在了对立面。据渠道人士指出，新L9上市后72小时后，周末进店量迎来高峰，客户表示Livis版价格较原本预期还低3万元。并且，老车主增换购比例超过门店预期，带动试驾量暴涨。销售版本的比例上，livis与Ultra版呈现9:1，门店反馈称，客户普遍选择 livis 版本，对800V 主动悬架、固态激光雷达和轮毂感知度最强，客户认为 livis 配置性价比更高。理想汽车产品线负责人汤靖印证了这点，“发布会上，可能因为我们大部分时间都在聊 Livis，结果 90% 的用户都选了 Livis 版本，双色选装率也远超预期”。花旗对L9 livis“越贵越难卖”、旗舰产品吸引力不足的判断也不攻自破。但热钱大多都是短视的。从投资者的角度来看，市场的确希望理想在历经波动后，掷出一个新爆款力挽狂澜，将销量和利润快速推回上升渠道。理想2025年财报显示，理想去年总销量减少了18.8%；单车价格也同比少了1.4万元，来到26.26万元。因为i6等入门级产品放量，曾经理想品牌的高毛利、高确定性增长逻辑被扰动。为了稳住局面，理想2026年的战略重心转向了增程产品，纯电新品只留一款。这种战略可以理解为在最熟悉的领域，集中火力打歼灭战。只是随着越来越多竞争者的涌入，增程赛道也成了红海。有行业研究人士指出，蔚小理、小米、深蓝、极氪的月交付量在2.9-3.4万台上下浮动，差距并不大，这意味着一款产品的成功或失误，就可能引发座次洗牌。因此，投资者希望新L9能对竞品“一击毙命”，复现三年前初代产品，既走量也能贡献高利润的奇迹。顺势扭转行业价格战、原料成本上涨带来的压力。不过，此时李想的战略主线已经转向AI，公司在研发的投入逆势加码，2026 年研发费用指引达 120 亿元，其中 AI 相关投入占比达一半。短期来看研发开支大幅攀升将侵蚀利润表。与此同时，内部对新L9的叙事变为“具身智能第一车”。直觉上，似乎远不如“堆料降价”来的性感。二级市场的担忧因此上升。然而，若用旧世界的地图，永远找不到新大陆。李想直言：“理想汽车做 AI，不是冒险。不做才是冒险。” 旧图难觅新大陆年初，李想开了一场全员会，强调 “2026 年是所有想要成为 AI 头部公司上车的最后一年”，最晚 2028 年 L4 一定落地，同时明确会做人形机器人。他规划了一张15年的蓝图：上半场自动驾驶，下半场人形机器人，最终 2040 年抵达 AGI。对于AI，理想是认真的。2025年财报显示，理想全年研发投入113.15亿，同比增加了2.2%，创下了公司历史新高。平均每三天就要花掉一个亿去做研发。在主营业务经营现金流转负的年份，无疑是激进的选择。在行业里，这被称为反周期投入。而这种反周期投入，也让大家看到了苹果和特斯拉早年的影子。回溯2001年，被互联网泡沫破裂阵痛裹挟的苹果，反向的加码研发几年后孕育出了iPhone手机；2016年，特斯拉在面临连续亏损、产能不足、技术事故及战略投资困境等多重挑战下，硬生生拿出营收的13%投入研发，最后造出了全球爆款Model3。早年的理想，在行业纷纷不看好增程技术时选择坚守，选择相信自己对市场需求的判断，最终等来了市场大爆发，成了彼时新势力一哥。如今虽重新回到行业低谷期，但理想依旧思路清晰。“进入竞争后期，同质化越来越严重，聚集度越来越高。这时要比别人做得更有差异化，就不能在上层”。理想汽车CTO谢炎向华尔街见闻表示，上层的东西容易被复制，且能做的空间也愈发逼仄，越往底层、越垂直整合，壁垒越高。谢炎透露，理想很早就有了这样的战略布局，“就是要往底层走，要往更难、更核心的方面走”。新L9 Livis就是第一枪。李想表示，理想在过去四年几乎重构了整车底盘系统，自研5纳米马赫 M100 芯片双芯组合算力达 2560TOPS。谢炎提到，苹果之所以能在手机行业独占鳌头，就是因为芯片与操作系统结合，提供远超同行的能力。“我们的出发点是，必须具备超出他人的能力”。另一边，理想的研发投入切到了AI硬件与具身智能，相当一部分已经投到了车之外的方向，这是理想AI战略的第二曲线。可以说，理想正在用今天的研发开支，去换未来的话语权。更何况，理想账上还手握1010亿元的现金（截至2025年底）。这不是理想的退路，是入场券。理想的成长路径一直遵循同一逻辑：早期押注家庭市场和增程技术，理想ONE热卖后有了财力研发L系列；汽车业务站稳脚跟后，又把利润投入操作系统自研、模型自研、芯片自研。每一步都是上一步的结果。有业内人士表示，以中国现有的汽车产业链，孵化出一个新丰田、大众并不难。但中国车企能否在具身智能时代，再造一个保时捷或宝马、奔驰，这就需要提早一步落子。值得一提的是，理想并没有与其他车企一样，将研发成本资本化慢慢分摊，而是选择直接费用化一次性扛下来。虽然当前账期业绩承压，但未来一旦产品纷纷出牌，利润的弹性会非常大。这意味着，接下来随着理想稳住增程基本盘、纯电车型放量、具身智能第二曲线最终若能如愿落地，它的业绩就将画出一道高斜率的增长曲线。那时候，也将是新旧时代交替的拐点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":1.96,"EVS.SI":0.6,"ARTY":0.63,"AGIX":0.63,"AIPO":0.63,"LI":1.96}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":549636104905552,"gmtCreate":1775210336331,"gmtModify":1775212584923,"author":{"id":"3537225275822985","authorId":"3537225275822985","name":"Angleal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb1f6820f1a35cfc1a349583f399457","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3537225275822985","idStr":"3537225275822985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这不是扯淡么","listText":"这不是扯淡么","text":"这不是扯淡么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549636104905552","repostId":"1143374018","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143374018","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775208851,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143374018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-03 17:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡设“收费站”：分级收费、护航通行，油轮过路费每桶1美元起","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143374018","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据知情人士透露，伊朗革命卫队已开始在霍尔木兹海峡对过往船只收取“通行费”，优先放行其认定的“友好国家”船只，而对被视为敌对阵营的船只则可能实施威胁甚至攻击。根据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间3月30日，伊朗议会国家安全委员会通过了拟对霍尔木兹海峡通行船只收费的法案。近日，一艘滞留在波斯湾的油轮被建议更换为巴基斯坦船旗后，可在伊朗海军护送下安全驶离霍尔木兹海峡。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据知情人士透露，伊朗革命卫队已开始在霍尔木兹海峡对过往船只收取“通行费”，优先放行其认定的“友好国家”船只，而对被视为敌对阵营的船只则可能实施威胁甚至攻击。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">根据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间3月30日，伊朗议会国家安全委员会通过了拟对霍尔木兹海峡通行船只收费的法案。计划内容包括：以伊朗货币里亚尔实施财务安排和收费系统；禁止美国和以色列船只通过海峡；维护伊朗及其武装部队的主导地位；禁止参与对伊朗单边制裁的国家通行；伊朗将与阿曼合作制定相关法律框架。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据彭博社4月1日报道，部分航运企业已收到伊朗方面提供的“护航通行”方案。近日，一艘滞留在波斯湾的油轮被建议更换为巴基斯坦船旗后，可在伊朗海军护送下安全驶离霍尔木兹海峡。另据央视新闻此前报道，3月28日，巴基斯坦称，伊朗政府已同意新增放行20艘巴基斯坦籍船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，并计划每日安排两艘通行。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">伊朗已为通行海峡制定了一套相当“正规”的收费系统。船舶若希望安全通过，需提前与革命卫队关联的中间公司接洽，提交包括船舶所有权、船旗、货物信息、目的地及自动识别系统（AIS）数据等详细资料。相关文件随后转交革命卫队霍尔木兹甘省司令部进行背景审查，以确认船只与美国、以色列或其他被伊朗视为敌对国家不存在关联。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">审核通过后，双方将就通行费用展开谈判。知情人士称，伊朗已建立五档分级机制，与伊朗越友好的国家越可能获得更优惠条件。一般而言，油轮通行费谈判起价约为每桶1美元，以人民币或稳定币支付。缴费完成后，船方将获得通行证代码及指定航线，需升起与其达成通行协议的国家的国旗，部分情况下甚至需要临时变更注册地。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">具体操作中，船只进入海峡前需通过无线电报送通行证代码，随后由伊朗巡逻艇护航通过。由于海峡航道狭窄且靠近伊朗海岸，这一机制被业内人士形容为“海上收费站”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据知情人士透露，巴基斯坦方面正与国际大型商品贸易商接触，询问其是否拥有可临时悬挂巴基斯坦国旗以通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只资源，重点寻求运力较大的油轮，包括单船载油量可达约200万桶的超级油轮。目前，至少已有两家大型石油贸易公司收到相关邀请。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">不过，分析认为，伊朗征收通行费的国际法依据尚不明确。船舶所有人与革命卫队商议穿行过程存在多重风险，除涉及人身安全及保险成本外，还可能触犯相关制裁或反洗钱法令，加剧航运企业的合规压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">船舶跟踪数据显示，过去一周通过霍尔木兹海峡的船舶通行量略有增加，但仍仅为战前水平的一小部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据报道，伊朗战事爆发以来，过往当地船只的保费费率大幅上涨。和平时期一般为船只价值的0.25%左右，如今升至1%至2%，与美以相关的船只费率最高。海上保险组织劳合社表示，覆盖霍尔木兹海峡的战争险一直在售。但不少保险经纪人和船主表示，目前没有船只愿意穿越霍尔木兹海峡，并非担心船只或货物受损得不到赔偿，而是害怕出现人员伤亡。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡设“收费站”：分级收费、护航通行，油轮过路费每桶1美元起</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡设“收费站”：分级收费、护航通行，油轮过路费每桶1美元起\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-03 17:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据知情人士透露，伊朗革命卫队已开始在霍尔木兹海峡对过往船只收取“通行费”，优先放行其认定的“友好国家”船只，而对被视为敌对阵营的船只则可能实施威胁甚至攻击。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">根据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间3月30日，伊朗议会国家安全委员会通过了拟对霍尔木兹海峡通行船只收费的法案。计划内容包括：以伊朗货币里亚尔实施财务安排和收费系统；禁止美国和以色列船只通过海峡；维护伊朗及其武装部队的主导地位；禁止参与对伊朗单边制裁的国家通行；伊朗将与阿曼合作制定相关法律框架。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据彭博社4月1日报道，部分航运企业已收到伊朗方面提供的“护航通行”方案。近日，一艘滞留在波斯湾的油轮被建议更换为巴基斯坦船旗后，可在伊朗海军护送下安全驶离霍尔木兹海峡。另据央视新闻此前报道，3月28日，巴基斯坦称，伊朗政府已同意新增放行20艘巴基斯坦籍船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，并计划每日安排两艘通行。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">伊朗已为通行海峡制定了一套相当“正规”的收费系统。船舶若希望安全通过，需提前与革命卫队关联的中间公司接洽，提交包括船舶所有权、船旗、货物信息、目的地及自动识别系统（AIS）数据等详细资料。相关文件随后转交革命卫队霍尔木兹甘省司令部进行背景审查，以确认船只与美国、以色列或其他被伊朗视为敌对国家不存在关联。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">审核通过后，双方将就通行费用展开谈判。知情人士称，伊朗已建立五档分级机制，与伊朗越友好的国家越可能获得更优惠条件。一般而言，油轮通行费谈判起价约为每桶1美元，以人民币或稳定币支付。缴费完成后，船方将获得通行证代码及指定航线，需升起与其达成通行协议的国家的国旗，部分情况下甚至需要临时变更注册地。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">具体操作中，船只进入海峡前需通过无线电报送通行证代码，随后由伊朗巡逻艇护航通过。由于海峡航道狭窄且靠近伊朗海岸，这一机制被业内人士形容为“海上收费站”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据知情人士透露，巴基斯坦方面正与国际大型商品贸易商接触，询问其是否拥有可临时悬挂巴基斯坦国旗以通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只资源，重点寻求运力较大的油轮，包括单船载油量可达约200万桶的超级油轮。目前，至少已有两家大型石油贸易公司收到相关邀请。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">不过，分析认为，伊朗征收通行费的国际法依据尚不明确。船舶所有人与革命卫队商议穿行过程存在多重风险，除涉及人身安全及保险成本外，还可能触犯相关制裁或反洗钱法令，加剧航运企业的合规压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">船舶跟踪数据显示，过去一周通过霍尔木兹海峡的船舶通行量略有增加，但仍仅为战前水平的一小部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据报道，伊朗战事爆发以来，过往当地船只的保费费率大幅上涨。和平时期一般为船只价值的0.25%左右，如今升至1%至2%，与美以相关的船只费率最高。海上保险组织劳合社表示，覆盖霍尔木兹海峡的战争险一直在售。但不少保险经纪人和船主表示，目前没有船只愿意穿越霍尔木兹海峡，并非担心船只或货物受损得不到赔偿，而是害怕出现人员伤亡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/676dfb109e32af3b876a9cdf4eea7a2a","relate_stocks":{"VLO":"瓦莱罗能源","MPC":"马拉松原油","CVX":"雪佛龙","PSX":"Phillips 66","INDO":"Indonesia Energy Corp Ltd.","PBR":"巴西石油公司","SLB":"斯伦贝谢","OXY":"西方石油","SHEL":"SHELL PLC SPON ADS EACH REPR 2 ORD 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","listText":"革命卫队[捂脸] ","text":"革命卫队[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548988933432200","repostId":"1112110068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1112110068","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775051856,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112110068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-01 21:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗回应特朗普停火言论，称霍尔木兹海峡不对敌开放","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112110068","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月1日电，综合法新社、卡塔尔半岛电视台最新报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队4月1日称，霍尔木兹海峡不会对伊朗的“敌人”开放。据法新社报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队当天在一份声明中称，霍尔木兹海峡的局势处于伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军“牢牢的、绝对的”控制之下，且不会对伊朗的“敌人”开放。4月1日早些时候，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发帖称，伊朗方面“刚刚向美国请求停火”。但他表示，只有当霍尔木兹海峡开放时，美方才会“考虑”。 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21:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月1日，综合法新社、卡塔尔半岛电视台最新报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队4月1日称，霍尔木兹海峡不会对伊朗的“敌人”开放。</p><p>据法新社报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队当天在一份声明中称，霍尔木兹海峡的局势处于伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军“牢牢的、绝对的”控制之下，且不会对伊朗的“敌人”开放。</p><p>4月1日早些时候，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发帖称，伊朗方面“刚刚向美国请求停火”。但他表示，只有当霍尔木兹海峡开放时，美方才会“考虑”。 （环球网）</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b8cc01d19dcd836563474a020aa5844","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112110068","content_text":"4月1日，综合法新社、卡塔尔半岛电视台最新报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队4月1日称，霍尔木兹海峡不会对伊朗的“敌人”开放。据法新社报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队当天在一份声明中称，霍尔木兹海峡的局势处于伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军“牢牢的、绝对的”控制之下，且不会对伊朗的“敌人”开放。4月1日早些时候，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发帖称，伊朗方面“刚刚向美国请求停火”。但他表示，只有当霍尔木兹海峡开放时，美方才会“考虑”。 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