近期关于未来BTC能涨到多少有不小的争议,有很乐观的也有谨慎的,相比起来,我们相对乐观。这里仅仅做一个简单的情景分析,当然未必正确。本文来自于BEDROCK成员Eva全球财富(净资产)根据ubs的数据,2022年大约在454.4万亿,假设6%的增速(历史上增速要高于gdp增速),预计在2036年达到1,034万亿。其中,57%配置在了股票、固定收益、黄金、另类资产和加密货币上。根据测算,2023年底加密货币总市值1.65万亿,占全球全球财富(净资产)仅0.3%,比特币占比0.15%。按照最新数据,机构持有比特币的比例也仅12.7%;黄金etf 222b,BTC spot ETF AUM已经接近 57b,已经是黄金的25%,而比特币市值仅是all the above ground of gold value的11%左右,比特币将crossing the chasm。随着其去中心化“信仰”的传播和蔓延,etf等金融工具降低进入门槛,机构入场带来大量资金流入,比特币作为最成熟的加密货币资产,收益率和波动性也会逐渐趋缓,风险回报更加合理,但仍然相对其他传统金融资产吸引力更大等原因,比特币等加密货币具有从其他传统金融资产长期抢份额的逻辑,2036年金融资产(见下图)配置比例将在2036年占全球财富的47.7%,比如黄金假设下降到1.7%,固定收益和股票占比也下降,但另类资产预计可能会和加密货币一起高速增长。我们预计比特币在36年会达到全球财富的3%(也有可能尚未到头),参考2023年黄金(all the above-ground of gold)价值占比大约在2.5%(且一半都是珠宝等fabrication,流通性差)这里隐含的假设是比特币交易是商品交易,而比特币以外的部分涉及应用的加密货币交易可能被美国sec定义为investment contract的风险,发展速度可能低于比特币
Operational Review: Adjusting the structure of technology holdings, increasing investment in consumer and financial technology sectorsIn the first quarter, we maintained a heavy allocation in technology, but adjusted the structure. We reduced holdings in AI hardware that had seen significant increases, where market expectations were fully reflected, and the subsequent profit space was limited. We believe that if we look at AI hardware and applications based on the same assumptions and framework, those with similarly strong competitive advantages, high certainty, such as some leading chip foundries and design tools, as well as AI's B2B applications, have greater profit space. It's just that the realization of fundamentals is relatively late, requiring patience. Additionally, we increased ou
BEDROCK Monthly Report and Happy New Year!!! -202402
Investment Strategy Review: Adjusting AI Investment Structure, Maintaining High PositionsIn January, we made minor adjustments to our AI-related holdings by reducing positions in AI hardware companies that had significant gains, where market expectations were fully priced in, and which had limited room for future returns. However, we increased our investments in semiconductor foundries and design tools companies that also benefit from AI, have a good competitive landscape, high certainty, insufficient market reaction, and decent returns potentials. We continue to prioritize holding companies involved in AI's B2B applications, as well as internet companies that reflect future lifestyle changes and brand consumer products. In January, we began experimenting with establishing some short posit
1. Operational Review: Maintaining a High Position, Little Structural ChangeIn November, a high position was maintained with little structural change. Industries remained focused on cloud computing, advanced semiconductor processes, the internet, and branded consumer goods. Overseas assets (excluding U.S. Treasuries) maintained around 80% of the portfolio, with AI investments constituting over 40%.2. Market Review: Rapid Decline in U.S. Treasury Yields, Rising Expectations for Interest Rate CutsDomestically, the overall trend continued. On the one hand, continuous policy measures were introduced to resolve local debt and real estate issues, controlling the risks of economic deceleration and instability. However, on the other hand, there was no significant improvement in real estate sales a