I. Investment Review

In September, our portfolio exposure increased slightly and remained at a medium-to-high level overall. Our core investment directions remain unchanged—Internet, semiconductors, cloud computing, consumer, and financial technology. Among these, AI continues to be our primary focus, spanning Internet, semiconductors, and cloud computing, with investments concentrated in AI applications, cloud infrastructure, and leading chip manufacturers.

II. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy

1. MacroEnvironment: No Fundamental Shift

Since September, the macro environment has largely continued along the same trajectory, without fundamental changes. Although the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield did not fall significantly, instead rebounding within the 4.10%–4.20% range. This suggests that long-term yields are being driven more by inflation expectations, fiscal supply pressure, and risk premiums than by short-term policy moves. As a result, this rate cut offers only limited fundamental support to valuations.

1. AI: Entering a New Competitive Stage

The AI industry has entered a new phase of competition, where the focus is shifting from single-point technological advantages to ecosystem-level rivalry. Within this context, OpenAI’s influence is expanding rapidly:

• From Technology to Ecosystem:Initially, OpenAI relied on superior model capabilities and rapid iteration. It then built strong user stickiness and economies of scale, and now it is increasingly becoming the central demand driver across the value chain—from applications (APIs, ChatGPT users) to compute (GPUs, storage) and cloud infrastructure—where it holds strong pricing power.

• Alliance Building:OpenAI is diversifying beyond its reliance on Microsoft Azure by bringing in Oracle, CoreWeave, and Crusoe. On the chip side, it has deepened ties with NVIDIA (a $100 billion investment plus 10GW commitment) while also establishing a second supply source with AMD (6GW capacity plus 10% equity stake). On the memory side, it has added SK hynix and Samsung to secure long-term supply of HBM and other critical components.

• Platform Ambition:At its latest developer conference, OpenAI signaled its ambition to evolve into the “operating system” for future AI applications—positioning itself not just as a model provider but also as the foundational platform for the AI ecosystem.

At the same time, risks and speculative elements are evident:

• Resource pre-commitments across the industry are strategically sound but often accompanied by highly optimistic projections (e.g., trillion-dollar investments, gigawatt-scale data centers, long-term supply contracts).

• Many of these projections remain aspirational; execution may lag behind the narrative.

• Uncertainties in technology (e.g., small models, inference optimization), commercialization pace, and constraints in power and capacity could result in underutilization or oversupply.

Overall:The next stage of AI will likely be defined by OpenAI acting as the industry’s central driver, forging alliances across the stack—models, chips/storage, and cloud. While a clear ecosystem structure is taking shape, the mismatch between narrative and reality suggests short-term overheating, with long-term outcomes still uncertain.

In recent weeks, we have conducted research on the Central Asian and Brazilian markets, and the key observations are as follows:

1. Central Asia: High Potential, High Risk

Our recent field research in Central Asia highlights a region in the early stages of rapid growth, reminiscent of China 20 years ago—dynamic and full of opportunities, yet constrained by smaller market sizes.

Key Observations:

• Population & Economy:Uzbekistan (38M population, ~1M annual new births) and Kazakhstan (20M population) both have median ages around 30, driving consumption and entrepreneurship. Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita (~$14,000) far outpaces Uzbekistan’s (~$2,800), reflecting differing development stages and consumption capacities. Kazakhstan is pushing digital transformation, while Uzbekistan is positioning itself as a low-cost IT outsourcing hub.

• Policy & Openness:Uzbekistan has accelerated reforms since 2016, while Kazakhstan has attracted Russian businesses and talent post-Ukraine conflict. Both offer incentives like tax breaks and industrial parks to attract foreign capital.

• Geopolitics:Kazakhstan’s trilingual workforce (Russian, Kazakh, English) and openness to both East and West position it as a hub connecting China, Russia, and global markets. Uzbekistan is pursuing international cooperation more broadly.

Investment Implications:

• Opportunities:Weakening Russian influence, combined with pro-market reforms, creates fertile ground. Low Internet penetration and limited Western presence give local players first-mover advantage (e.g., KSPI, Uzum). Financial inclusion gaps suggest strong fintech potential.

• Risks:Small domestic markets limit vertical scale, forcing reliance on regional expansion. Integration is difficult (e.g., KSPI’s challenges in Uzbekistan). Macro risks include high inflation, high interest rates, FX volatility, and limited FDI. Scarcity of talent and capital makes unicorn formation difficult.

Overall Judgment:Central Asia offers both high growth potential and high risk. While reminiscent of China’s early years, successful regional integration will be challenging.

1. Brazil: Structural Opportunities Amid Constraints

Brazil combines a large market, young demographics, and regional influence, making it a key entry point into Latin America.

Key Observations:

• Market & Population:With over 200M people and GDP per capita close to China’s, Brazil has vast market potential. Contrary to stereotypes, Brazilians showed notable diligence during our research, positioning the country competitively within Latin America.

• Political Risk:Next year’s election remains a major uncertainty. Outcomes could diverge sharply: populist, fiscally expansionary policies versus market-friendly, fiscally restrained policies—each with significant short-term implications for markets and sentiment.

• Taxes & Rates:VAT exceeds 20% and tariffs are high, while interest rates remain elevated. This environment pressures retail and physical businesses but favors local incumbents adept at navigating complexities. Platform companies, with lighter balance sheets, are relatively advantaged. Financials benefit from high spreads when risks are contained.

• E-Commerce:Penetration continues to rise, but competition is intensifying. MercadoLibre (MELI) retains a strong moat, yet faces pressure on market share, take rates, and margins as global entrants like Shopee, Temu, TikTok, and Amazon ramp up investments.

Overall Judgment:Brazil offers structural opportunities thanks to its scale and demographics, but faces constraints from political uncertainty, high taxes, and elevated rates. Long-term investors can still find compelling opportunities.

III. Where Are the Opportunities?

Looking ahead, we will actively pursue new sources of alpha across AI, robotics, consumption, fintech, and emerging markets:

• AI:A critical source of medium-to-long-term alpha. By enhancing and even substituting human productivity, AI has only just begun to unlock value, with immense upside potential.

• Consumption:Lifestyle shifts toward health and self-care continue to generate new consumer opportunities.

• Fintech:Ongoing disruption of traditional finance opens new pathways for investment.

• Emerging Markets:Latin America, Asia-Pacific, and beyond offer compelling opportunities for growth.

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