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盲人摸大象
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-20
1
黄仁勋即中本聪
2026年3月，我坐在 NVIDIA GTC 会场里，听了黄仁勋一场几乎没有带货的主题演讲。而黄仁勋在 GTC 2026的舞台上，做了一件结构上一模一样的事。这张图几乎可以当作黄仁勋 “token 经济学” 的白皮书封面。中本聪和黄仁勋都没有直接生产 token，他们定义的都是 token 的生产规则和定价机制。而黄仁勋，用物理定律制造了天然稀缺。但无论是中本聪还是黄仁勋，他们创造的稀缺性都导致了同一个结果：硬件军备竞赛。
黄仁勋即中本聪
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-20
很有可能啊🤔
伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？
霍尔木兹海峡封锁切断石油美元循环，每年数千亿中东资本或从AI产业链上撤离；与此同时，规模1.8万亿美元的美国私募信贷火药桶已从内部点燃——贝莱德冻结赎回、Apollo高管坦言贷款"能收回20美分就不错"。当战争从"四周速决"蔓延为第五个月，三重危机正向同一个引爆点狂奔。
伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-20
1
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-19
1
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-19
[强] [强] [强]
黄仁勋：有信心达成1万亿美元收入预判
南方财经3月18日电，当地时间3月17日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在接受采访时表示，他提到的2025年至2027年收入1万亿美元的预判，只包含Blackwell和Rubin芯片的收入，不包含CPU等多元业务的收入。英伟达对这1万亿美元的收入预判是来自这部分业务的能见度和采购订单，英伟达对此有信心。
黄仁勋：有信心达成1万亿美元收入预判
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-19
1
马斯克：SpaceX AI 和特斯拉预计将大规模持续订购英伟达芯片
ChainCatcher 消息，马斯克表示，SpaceX AI 和特斯拉 (TSLA.O) 预计将大规模持续订购英伟达 (NVDA.O) 芯片。
马斯克：SpaceX AI 和特斯拉预计将大规模持续订购英伟达芯片
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-19
1
异动解读 | 美联储政策压制及白银期货跳水，2倍做多白银ETF盘前大跌11.27%
2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares（AGQ）今日盘前股价大跌11.27%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次下跌主要受到白银期货价格大幅走弱的拖累。美联储在近期会议上宣布维持利率不变，且降息预期进一步收敛，对金银等贵金属价格形成压制。同时，中东地缘冲突持续发酵，市场情绪偏向谨慎，加剧了白银的抛售压力。作为追踪白银价格并带有两倍杠杆的ETF，AGQ的波动幅度被显著放大。隔夜交易中，COMEX白银期货价格一度下跌超7%，现货白银也大幅下挫，直接导致了该杠杆ETF的剧烈下跌。
异动解读 | 美联储政策压制及白银期货跳水，2倍做多白银ETF盘前大跌11.27%
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-19
1
异动解读 | 2倍做多黄金ETF盘前大跌5.14%，受美联储鹰派立场及中东冲突打压
2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares今日盘前股价大跌5.14%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次下跌主要受到多重因素影响。首先，美联储在最新议息会议上宣布维持利率不变，且点阵图显示决策者预计今年仅会降息一次，释放出偏鹰派的信号，这削弱了黄金作为无息资产的吸引力。
异动解读 | 2倍做多黄金ETF盘前大跌5.14%，受美联储鹰派立场及中东冲突打压
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-10
1
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盲人摸大象
盲人摸大象
·
03-07
[强]
“银色狂想曲”再度激昂？供需赤字与工业叙事共振，白银再战100美元大关
“银色狂想曲”迈向新牛市篇章？供需持续结构性赤字以及前沿技术领域的愈发火热工业应用需求助力，将在很大程度上支撑白银价格强势上行。花旗预计银价将在2026年第二季度再次向高点演进，甚至有望冲击110至150美元区间。美银认为若金价维持在5,000美元附
“银色狂想曲”再度激昂？供需赤字与工业叙事共振，白银再战100美元大关
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e30023ea8ec0245fdd64984dff21fae\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年3月，我坐在 NVIDIA GTC 会场里，听了黄仁勋一场几乎没有带货的主题演讲。是的，他发布了 Vera Rubin，一款 CPU 与 GPU 结合的产品。但这次，他没有讲芯片参数，没有讲制程工艺，他讲的是一套关于 token 生产、定价和消费的完整经济学——</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">哪种模型，对应哪种 token 速度；哪种 token速度，对应哪个定价区间；哪个定价区间，需要什么级别的硬件来支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他甚至帮台下的 CEO 和掌握着企业支票本的决策者们做好了数据中心的算力分配方案：25%给免费层，25%给中端，25%给高端，25%给高溢价层。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">是的，这次他没有具体卖哪款 GPU 组，就像两年前卖 Blackwell 那样。但这次，他在卖一些更大的东西。两个小时下来，我觉得他最想讲的一句话其实是：Welcome to consume tokens, and only Nvidia's factory could produce。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一刻我意识到，这个男人，和17年前那个匿名者挖出了第一个 token 的人，做的是结构上完全相同的一件事。</p><h2 id=\"id_2626211134\">同一套转化规则</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">化名为“中本聪”的那个匿名者，在2008年写了一篇九页的白皮书，设计了一套规则：投入算力，完成一个数学证明（Proof of Work），获得 crypto token 作为奖励。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个规则的精妙之处在于，他不需要任何人信任任何人——只要你接受这套规则，你就自动成为这个经济体的参与者。这个规则是对的，毕竟它让那么多尔虞我诈的人走到了一起。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而黄仁勋在 GTC 2026的舞台上，做了一件结构上一模一样的事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他展示了一张图，彰显推理效率与 token 消耗的关系和张力：Y 轴是吞吐量（每兆瓦功耗产出多少 token），X 轴是交互性（每个用户感知到的 token 速度）。然后，他在 X 轴下面标了五个定价档：Free 用Qwen 3，$0/百万token；Medium 用 Kimi K2.5，$3/百万token；High 用 GPT MoE，$6/百万 token；Premium 用 GPT MoE 400K context，$45/百万 token；而 Ultra，$150/百万token。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这张图几乎可以当作黄仁勋 “token 经济学” 的白皮书封面。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccec94a526bf879d69348bc826f36b\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪定义了“什么是有价值的计算”——完成 SHA-256 哈希碰撞就是有价值的。而黄仁勋定义了“什么是有价值的推理”——在给定功耗约束下，以特定速度为特定场景产出 token就是有价值的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪和黄仁勋都没有直接生产 token，他们定义的都是 token 的生产规则和定价机制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">老黄在台上说的一句话，几乎可以直接写进 token 经济学白皮书的摘要——</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tokens are the new commodity, and like all commodities, once it reaches an inflection, once it becomes mature, it will segment into different parts.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Token是新的大宗商品。大宗商品成熟之后会自然分层。他不是在描述现状，他是在预判一个市场结构，然后把自己的硬件产品线，精确地铺在这个结构的每一层上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两种 token的生产过程，甚至有一个语义上的对称：挖矿叫 mining，推理叫 inference。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">挖矿和推理的本质，都是把电变成钱。矿工花电费挖 crypto token，然后卖掉，推理模型和 AI Agents 花电费产生 AI token，然后按百万计价卖给开发者。中间环节不同，两头都一样：左边是电表，右边是收入。</p><h2 id=\"id_3373420916\">稀缺性的两种写法</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪做过的最重要的设计决策，不是 Proof of Work，是2100万枚的比特币总量上限。他用代码制造了人工稀缺——不管有多少矿机涌入，比特币的总量永远不会超过2100万枚。这个稀缺性是整个加密经济的价值锚。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而黄仁勋，用物理定律制造了天然稀缺。他说——</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"You still have to build a gigawatt data center. You still have to build a gigawatt factory, and that one gigawatt factory for 15 years amortized... is about $40 billion even when you put nothing on it. It's $40 billion. You better make for darn sure you put the best computer system on that thing so that you can have the best token cost."</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个1GW 的数据中心永远不会变成 2GW。这不是代码限制，这是物理定律。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">土地、电力、散热——每一项都有物理上限。你花400美元亿建好的这个工厂，15年的生命周期里能产出多少 token，完全取决于你往里面放了什么计算架构。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4a1221945ad658bdae2be50d6fd8bfd\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪的稀缺性可以被 fork。不喜欢2100万枚的上限，fork一条新链，改成2亿枚，叫它以太币或什么鬼玩意儿，随你便，顺便再发个白皮书。而人们确实这么做了，乐此不疲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而老黄制造的稀缺性不能被fork。毕竟你不能 fork热力学第二定律，不能 fork一个城市的电网容量，不能 fork一块土地的物理面积。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但无论是中本聪还是黄仁勋，他们创造的稀缺性都导致了同一个结果：硬件军备竞赛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">挖矿的历史是：CPU→GPU→FPGA→ASIC。每一代专用硬件都让上一代变成废铁。而 AI 训练和推理的历史也正在重演：Hopper→Blackwell→Vera Rubin→Groq LPU。通用硬件起步，专用硬件定局。老黄今年 GTC 展示的 Groq LPU，那个收购了 Groq 之后发布的确定性数据流处理器。静态编译，编译器调度，没有动态调度，500MB片上SRAM——它架构哲学上就是推理领域的 ASIC。只做一件事，但做到极致。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有意思的是：GPU 在两波浪潮里都扮演了关键角色。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2013年前后，矿工们发现 GPU 比 CPU 更适合挖 crypto token，英伟达显卡被买断货。10年后，研究者们发现 GPU 是训练和推理 AI 模型的最佳工具，英伟达数据中心卡再次被买断货。GPU 作为一个处理器门类，先后服务了两代 token 经济。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而区别在于，第一次英伟达是被动受益，然后也就没然后了。而第二次，在 AI 算力消费的主战场从预训练切换到推理测的时候，英伟达很快抓住机会主动设计了整个游戏，成为 AI 游戏规则的写入者。</p><h2 id=\"id_29565238\">全世界最赚钱的铲子</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">淘金热里最赚钱的不是淘金者，是卖铲子的 Levi Strauss。挖矿潮里最赚钱的不是矿工，是卖矿机的比特大陆和吴忌寒。AI 预训练和推理浪里最赚钱的不是基座模型和 Agent，而是卖 GPU 的英伟达。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但讲真，比特大陆跟英伟达置于各自产业的角色，已不可同日语。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比特大陆只卖矿机，英伟达还曾是比特大陆的供应商。你买了矿机，挖什么币、去哪个矿池、以什么价格卖出，都跟比特大陆无关。它是一个纯硬件供应商，赚的是一次性的设备利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达不一样。他不只卖硬件，现在，尤其是2025年推理侧 AI 爆发以来，它深度定义了应该用这款 GPU 挖什么 、如何给 token定价、token 卖给谁、数据中心应该怎么分配算力…… 这些都在老黄的演讲 PPT 里：他把市场分成五个 tier，每个 tier 对应什么模型、上下文长度、交互速度和价格……英伟达标准化、格式化了未来 AI 推理驱动一切的市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2018年前后，全球算力集中在几个大矿池——F2Pool、Antpool、BTC.com——它们互相竞争算力份额，但矿机来源高度集中在比特大陆。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一如今天的英伟达，60% 收入来自互相竞争的 “hyperscaler”，例如 AWS、Azure、GCP、Oracle、CoreWeave，而 40%来自分散的 AI Natives、主权AI 项目和企业客户。大“矿池”贡献主要营收，小“矿工”提供韧性和多元化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两套生态的结构一模一样。但比特大陆后来遇到了竞争对手——神马矿机、芯动科技、嘉楠耘智都在蚕食它的份额。矿机是相对简单的 ASIC 设计，追赶者有机会。而撼动英伟达似乎变得越来越难：20年的 CUDA 生态，数亿 GPU 的安装基数，NVLink六代互联技术，Groq 整合后的解耦推理架构——英伟达的技术复杂性和生态壁垒，让大部分的竞争工具都无效了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这可能得持续20年。</p><h2 id=\"id_1944373886\">两种 token 的根本分叉</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而让加密货币和 AI 训练和推理两种 token 产生本质不同的，是人们使用的动机和心理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Crypto token 的需求侧是投机。没有人“需要”比特币来完成工作。所有宣称区块链代币能帮你解决问题的白皮书都是骗子些的。你持有 crypto，是因为相信未来会有人以更高的价格从你手里买走它。比特币的价值来自一个自我实现的预言：足够多的人相信它有价值，它就有价值。这是信仰经济。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而 AI token的需求侧是生产力。雀巢需要 token来做供应链决策——它的供应链数据从15分钟刷新一次变成3分钟刷新一次，成本降低83%，这个价值是可以直接映射到 P&L 上的。英伟达 100%的工程师已经需要 token 来写代码而不是手搓；研究团队需要 token 从事科研。你不需要相信 token有价值，你只需要用它，价值就在使用中自证了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是两种 token最本质的区别。Crypto token被生产出来是为了被持有和交易——它的价值在于不使用。AI token 被生产出来是为了被立刻消费掉——它的价值在于被用掉的那一刻。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一种是数字黄金，越囤越值钱；一种是数字电力，生产出来就烧掉。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个区别决定了：AI token 经济不会像 crypto token 经济一样泡沫化。比特币大起大落，因为投机品的价格由情绪驱动。但token 的价格由使用量和生产成本驱动，只要 AI 持续有用——只要人们还在用 Claude Code 写代码、用 ChatGPT 写报告、用 Agent 跑业务流程，token 的需求就不会崩。它不靠信仰，靠的是离不开。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2008年，比特币白皮书需要反复一个去中心化的电子现金系统为什么有价值。17年过去了，人们还在争。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年，token 经济学没有引发任何争论，它甚至不需要论证就成了共识。老黄站在 GTC 的舞台上说“tokens are the new commodity”的时候，没有人质疑。因为台下坐着的每一个人，今天早上都用 Claude Code 或者 ChatGPT消费了几百万个 token。他们不需要被说服 token有价值——他们的信用卡账单已经证明了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从这个意义上，老黄真的是中本聪的副本，那个替中本聪留下来垄断了矿机生产、定义了 token 的使用场景和使用规范、而且一年一度在圣何塞 SAP Center 举办一场 show，告诉人们下一代支持 AI 训练和推理的“矿机”有多强的那个副本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪有一种欲望审慎的魅力，他设计完规则，交给代码，然后消失。这是密码朋克的浪漫。而老黄比任何科学家都像生意人，他设计了规则，亲自维护，不断添砖加瓦，筑牢自己的护城河。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你过去因为相信所以看见的那个 token，现在不用相信就能看见。它是瓦特、安培、比特之后的下一个。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1773898294933","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄仁勋即中本聪\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-19 13:30 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TSI7E4H8cUguM5S0H1m70w><strong>硅基立场</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去因为相信所以看见的那个 token，现在不用相信就能看见。它是瓦特、安培、比特之后的下一个。2009年1月，一个匿名者发明了一种叫 “token”的东西，你投入算力，获得 token，token在一个共识网络里流通、定价、交易。整个加密经济由此而生。十几年过去了，人们还在争论这种 token 到底有没有价值。2025年3月，一个穿皮衣的男人重新定义了另一种叫 token 的东西。你投入算力，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TSI7E4H8cUguM5S0H1m70w\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2937b89917d7346ec63f69ec7c3fcc","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TSI7E4H8cUguM5S0H1m70w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184216480","content_text":"过去因为相信所以看见的那个 token，现在不用相信就能看见。它是瓦特、安培、比特之后的下一个。2009年1月，一个匿名者发明了一种叫 “token”的东西，你投入算力，获得 token，token在一个共识网络里流通、定价、交易。整个加密经济由此而生。十几年过去了，人们还在争论这种 token 到底有没有价值。2025年3月，一个穿皮衣的男人重新定义了另一种叫 token 的东西。你投入算力，产出 token，token在一个 AI 推理（inference & reasoning ）过程中里被立刻消费掉：思考、推理、写代码、做决策。整个 AI 经济由此加速。没有人争论这种 token 有没有价值，因为你今天早上刚用掉了几百万个。两种 token，同一个名字，同一个底层结构：算力进去，有价值的东西出来。2026年3月，我坐在 NVIDIA GTC 会场里，听了黄仁勋一场几乎没有带货的主题演讲。是的，他发布了 Vera Rubin，一款 CPU 与 GPU 结合的产品。但这次，他没有讲芯片参数，没有讲制程工艺，他讲的是一套关于 token 生产、定价和消费的完整经济学——哪种模型，对应哪种 token 速度；哪种 token速度，对应哪个定价区间；哪个定价区间，需要什么级别的硬件来支撑。他甚至帮台下的 CEO 和掌握着企业支票本的决策者们做好了数据中心的算力分配方案：25%给免费层，25%给中端，25%给高端，25%给高溢价层。是的，这次他没有具体卖哪款 GPU 组，就像两年前卖 Blackwell 那样。但这次，他在卖一些更大的东西。两个小时下来，我觉得他最想讲的一句话其实是：Welcome to consume tokens, and only Nvidia's factory could produce。这一刻我意识到，这个男人，和17年前那个匿名者挖出了第一个 token 的人，做的是结构上完全相同的一件事。同一套转化规则化名为“中本聪”的那个匿名者，在2008年写了一篇九页的白皮书，设计了一套规则：投入算力，完成一个数学证明（Proof of Work），获得 crypto token 作为奖励。这个规则的精妙之处在于，他不需要任何人信任任何人——只要你接受这套规则，你就自动成为这个经济体的参与者。这个规则是对的，毕竟它让那么多尔虞我诈的人走到了一起。而黄仁勋在 GTC 2026的舞台上，做了一件结构上一模一样的事。他展示了一张图，彰显推理效率与 token 消耗的关系和张力：Y 轴是吞吐量（每兆瓦功耗产出多少 token），X 轴是交互性（每个用户感知到的 token 速度）。然后，他在 X 轴下面标了五个定价档：Free 用Qwen 3，$0/百万token；Medium 用 Kimi K2.5，$3/百万token；High 用 GPT MoE，$6/百万 token；Premium 用 GPT MoE 400K context，$45/百万 token；而 Ultra，$150/百万token。这张图几乎可以当作黄仁勋 “token 经济学” 的白皮书封面。中本聪定义了“什么是有价值的计算”——完成 SHA-256 哈希碰撞就是有价值的。而黄仁勋定义了“什么是有价值的推理”——在给定功耗约束下，以特定速度为特定场景产出 token就是有价值的。中本聪和黄仁勋都没有直接生产 token，他们定义的都是 token 的生产规则和定价机制。老黄在台上说的一句话，几乎可以直接写进 token 经济学白皮书的摘要——Tokens are the new commodity, and like all commodities, once it reaches an inflection, once it becomes mature, it will segment into different parts.Token是新的大宗商品。大宗商品成熟之后会自然分层。他不是在描述现状，他是在预判一个市场结构，然后把自己的硬件产品线，精确地铺在这个结构的每一层上。两种 token的生产过程，甚至有一个语义上的对称：挖矿叫 mining，推理叫 inference。挖矿和推理的本质，都是把电变成钱。矿工花电费挖 crypto token，然后卖掉，推理模型和 AI Agents 花电费产生 AI token，然后按百万计价卖给开发者。中间环节不同，两头都一样：左边是电表，右边是收入。稀缺性的两种写法中本聪做过的最重要的设计决策，不是 Proof of Work，是2100万枚的比特币总量上限。他用代码制造了人工稀缺——不管有多少矿机涌入，比特币的总量永远不会超过2100万枚。这个稀缺性是整个加密经济的价值锚。而黄仁勋，用物理定律制造了天然稀缺。他说——\"You still have to build a gigawatt data center. You still have to build a gigawatt factory, and that one gigawatt factory for 15 years amortized... is about $40 billion even when you put nothing on it. It's $40 billion. You better make for darn sure you put the best computer system on that thing so that you can have the best token cost.\"一个1GW 的数据中心永远不会变成 2GW。这不是代码限制，这是物理定律。土地、电力、散热——每一项都有物理上限。你花400美元亿建好的这个工厂，15年的生命周期里能产出多少 token，完全取决于你往里面放了什么计算架构。中本聪的稀缺性可以被 fork。不喜欢2100万枚的上限，fork一条新链，改成2亿枚，叫它以太币或什么鬼玩意儿，随你便，顺便再发个白皮书。而人们确实这么做了，乐此不疲。而老黄制造的稀缺性不能被fork。毕竟你不能 fork热力学第二定律，不能 fork一个城市的电网容量，不能 fork一块土地的物理面积。但无论是中本聪还是黄仁勋，他们创造的稀缺性都导致了同一个结果：硬件军备竞赛。挖矿的历史是：CPU→GPU→FPGA→ASIC。每一代专用硬件都让上一代变成废铁。而 AI 训练和推理的历史也正在重演：Hopper→Blackwell→Vera Rubin→Groq LPU。通用硬件起步，专用硬件定局。老黄今年 GTC 展示的 Groq LPU，那个收购了 Groq 之后发布的确定性数据流处理器。静态编译，编译器调度，没有动态调度，500MB片上SRAM——它架构哲学上就是推理领域的 ASIC。只做一件事，但做到极致。有意思的是：GPU 在两波浪潮里都扮演了关键角色。2013年前后，矿工们发现 GPU 比 CPU 更适合挖 crypto token，英伟达显卡被买断货。10年后，研究者们发现 GPU 是训练和推理 AI 模型的最佳工具，英伟达数据中心卡再次被买断货。GPU 作为一个处理器门类，先后服务了两代 token 经济。而区别在于，第一次英伟达是被动受益，然后也就没然后了。而第二次，在 AI 算力消费的主战场从预训练切换到推理测的时候，英伟达很快抓住机会主动设计了整个游戏，成为 AI 游戏规则的写入者。全世界最赚钱的铲子淘金热里最赚钱的不是淘金者，是卖铲子的 Levi Strauss。挖矿潮里最赚钱的不是矿工，是卖矿机的比特大陆和吴忌寒。AI 预训练和推理浪里最赚钱的不是基座模型和 Agent，而是卖 GPU 的英伟达。但讲真，比特大陆跟英伟达置于各自产业的角色，已不可同日语。比特大陆只卖矿机，英伟达还曾是比特大陆的供应商。你买了矿机，挖什么币、去哪个矿池、以什么价格卖出，都跟比特大陆无关。它是一个纯硬件供应商，赚的是一次性的设备利润。英伟达不一样。他不只卖硬件，现在，尤其是2025年推理侧 AI 爆发以来，它深度定义了应该用这款 GPU 挖什么 、如何给 token定价、token 卖给谁、数据中心应该怎么分配算力…… 这些都在老黄的演讲 PPT 里：他把市场分成五个 tier，每个 tier 对应什么模型、上下文长度、交互速度和价格……英伟达标准化、格式化了未来 AI 推理驱动一切的市场。2018年前后，全球算力集中在几个大矿池——F2Pool、Antpool、BTC.com——它们互相竞争算力份额，但矿机来源高度集中在比特大陆。一如今天的英伟达，60% 收入来自互相竞争的 “hyperscaler”，例如 AWS、Azure、GCP、Oracle、CoreWeave，而 40%来自分散的 AI Natives、主权AI 项目和企业客户。大“矿池”贡献主要营收，小“矿工”提供韧性和多元化。两套生态的结构一模一样。但比特大陆后来遇到了竞争对手——神马矿机、芯动科技、嘉楠耘智都在蚕食它的份额。矿机是相对简单的 ASIC 设计，追赶者有机会。而撼动英伟达似乎变得越来越难：20年的 CUDA 生态，数亿 GPU 的安装基数，NVLink六代互联技术，Groq 整合后的解耦推理架构——英伟达的技术复杂性和生态壁垒，让大部分的竞争工具都无效了。这可能得持续20年。两种 token 的根本分叉而让加密货币和 AI 训练和推理两种 token 产生本质不同的，是人们使用的动机和心理。Crypto token 的需求侧是投机。没有人“需要”比特币来完成工作。所有宣称区块链代币能帮你解决问题的白皮书都是骗子些的。你持有 crypto，是因为相信未来会有人以更高的价格从你手里买走它。比特币的价值来自一个自我实现的预言：足够多的人相信它有价值，它就有价值。这是信仰经济。而 AI token的需求侧是生产力。雀巢需要 token来做供应链决策——它的供应链数据从15分钟刷新一次变成3分钟刷新一次，成本降低83%，这个价值是可以直接映射到 P&L 上的。英伟达 100%的工程师已经需要 token 来写代码而不是手搓；研究团队需要 token 从事科研。你不需要相信 token有价值，你只需要用它，价值就在使用中自证了。这是两种 token最本质的区别。Crypto token被生产出来是为了被持有和交易——它的价值在于不使用。AI token 被生产出来是为了被立刻消费掉——它的价值在于被用掉的那一刻。一种是数字黄金，越囤越值钱；一种是数字电力，生产出来就烧掉。这个区别决定了：AI token 经济不会像 crypto token 经济一样泡沫化。比特币大起大落，因为投机品的价格由情绪驱动。但token 的价格由使用量和生产成本驱动，只要 AI 持续有用——只要人们还在用 Claude Code 写代码、用 ChatGPT 写报告、用 Agent 跑业务流程，token 的需求就不会崩。它不靠信仰，靠的是离不开。2008年，比特币白皮书需要反复一个去中心化的电子现金系统为什么有价值。17年过去了，人们还在争。2026年，token 经济学没有引发任何争论，它甚至不需要论证就成了共识。老黄站在 GTC 的舞台上说“tokens are the new commodity”的时候，没有人质疑。因为台下坐着的每一个人，今天早上都用 Claude Code 或者 ChatGPT消费了几百万个 token。他们不需要被说服 token有价值——他们的信用卡账单已经证明了。从这个意义上，老黄真的是中本聪的副本，那个替中本聪留下来垄断了矿机生产、定义了 token 的使用场景和使用规范、而且一年一度在圣何塞 SAP Center 举办一场 show，告诉人们下一代支持 AI 训练和推理的“矿机”有多强的那个副本。中本聪有一种欲望审慎的魅力，他设计完规则，交给代码，然后消失。这是密码朋克的浪漫。而老黄比任何科学家都像生意人，他设计了规则，亲自维护，不断添砖加瓦，筑牢自己的护城河。你过去因为相信所以看见的那个 token，现在不用相信就能看见。它是瓦特、安培、比特之后的下一个。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544424935989280,"gmtCreate":1773941733797,"gmtModify":1773941736345,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"很有可能啊🤔","listText":"很有可能啊🤔","text":"很有可能啊🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544424935989280","repostId":"2620214523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2620214523","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1773904288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620214523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620214523","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"霍尔木兹海峡封锁切断石油美元循环，每年数千亿中东资本或从AI产业链上撤离；与此同时，规模1.8万亿美元的美国私募信贷火药桶已从内部点燃——贝莱德冻结赎回、Apollo高管坦言贷款\"能收回20美分就不错\"。当战争从\"四周速决\"蔓延为第五个月，三重危机正向同一个引爆点狂奔。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>一场远在中东的战争，正在精准地切断美国金融体系的“大动脉”。</p>\n<p>表面上看，霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>的封锁只是一场地缘政治引发的能源危机；但在水面之下，它正在阻断一条支撑全球资本市场运转数十年的隐秘血脉——石油美元循环。</p>\n<p>更为致命的是，大洋彼岸的美国，一个规模庞大的火药桶早已咝咝作响：美国私募信贷市场正以加速度恶化，消费贷款基金冻结赎回、华尔街巨头紧急撤回债务发行、行业高管公开预警。</p>\n<p>当“中东断流”撞上“华尔街失血”，两条危机线索正以向着同一个终点狂奔：一场酝酿中的美国金融危机。</p>\n<p>以色列与伊朗的互相袭击向核心能源设施蔓延，华尔街最初“冲突几周就会结束”的幻想正在破灭。如果伊朗战争继续拖长，危机可能在同一个点上引爆。</p>\n<h2>石油美元：AI繁荣背后的中东资本</h2>\n<p>要理解这场危机的深层逻辑，必须先看懂全球金融机器里隐秘的齿轮：石油美元循环（Petrocapital Cycle）。</p>\n<p>这个概念最早由经济学家el-Gamal和Jaffe系统提出：<strong>海湾产油国将卖石油赚来的天量美元，以投资的形式重新注入国际金融市场。这不仅防止了中东国家内部通胀过热，更为全球信贷体系提供了源源不断的流动性。</strong></p>\n<p>自1973年石油危机诞生以来，这套循环就是支撑全球金融运转的隐形基石。历史早已证明，一旦这根血管被掐断，代价将是灾难性的。</p>\n<p>1979年石油冲击叠加1980年两伊战争，海湾国家为了打仗，将巨额资本从国际银行体系中疯狂抽离。结果是拉美国家资金链断裂，直接酿成了1982年拉美主权债务危机——这是历史上第一次由“石油美元断流”引发的系统性金融危机。</p>\n<p>如今，这套循环的规模已膨胀到令人咋舌的地步。截至2025年11月，仅阿联酋金融业持有的资产规模就高达1.4万亿美元。</p>\n<p>更重要的是，中东的钱，去哪了？答案是：硅谷和华尔街。</p>\n<p><strong>当下最炙手可热的AI赛道，无论是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的芯片、OpenAI的估值，还是私募市场里疯狂扩张的科技软件贷款，背后都站着中东金主。</strong></p>\n<p>去年沙特王储萨勒曼访美，不仅承诺将对美投资从6000亿飙升至1万亿美元，更直接点名“AI芯片与算力”是核心。随后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>等科技巨头与沙特签下800亿美元的“尖端技术”投资协议；沙特DataVolt更是豪掷200亿美元砸向美国AI数据中心。</p>\n<p>换句话说，中东的石油美元，早就深度焊死在了美国AI产业的资本链条上。</p>\n<p>然而，2月28日，齿轮卡壳了。</p>\n<p>霍尔木兹海峡关闭，伊朗布设水雷。惠誉起初还乐观预测“封锁一个月冲击温和”，但现实狠狠打了脸：海峡不仅长期受阻，关键油气基础设施更遭到持续轰炸。</p>\n<p>石油美元这条流向美国资本市场的大动脉，正在被战争死死勒紧。</p>\n<h2>私募信贷：已在燃烧的火药桶</h2>\n<p>如果说中东是外部断流，那么美国金融体系内部，一场危机早已悄然成形。</p>\n<p>在伊朗战争爆发前，华尔街的私募信贷市场就已经踩在了悬崖边上。而亲手推它下悬崖的，正是中东资本疯狂追捧的AI。</p>\n<p>过去几年，私募信贷野蛮生长，他们最喜欢干的事，就是把钱借给被私募股权收购的科技软件（SaaS）公司，赚取高额利差。瑞银和巴克莱的数据揭示了一个恐怖的集中度：私募信贷的贷款簿里，商业服务和信息技术加起来占比高达55%。</p>\n<p><strong>这本是一场完美的资本游戏，直到Anthropic的Claude横空出世。</strong></p>\n<p>AI开始以摧枯拉朽之势颠覆传统软件公司的商业模式。SaaS公司股价暴跌，它们偿还贷款的现金流瞬间成了画饼。底层资产烂了，私募信贷的多米诺骨牌随之倒塌。</p>\n<p>看看这份“崩盘时间表”：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>2月3日：私募信贷股票崩跌，“SaaS末日”冲击波蔓延；</li>\n<li>2月21日：巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OBDE\">Blue Owl</a>出现异常赎回，被华尔街视为“矿井里的金丝雀”；</li>\n<li>2月26日：瑞银警告，创纪录的“连锁违约”即将到来；</li>\n<li>3月5日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>（BlackRock）直接将一笔私人贷款从面值100硬生生砍到0；</li>\n<li>3月6日：全球最大资管公司贝莱德对260亿美元基金实施“关门打狗”（限制赎回）；</li>\n<li>3月11日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>下调抵押品估值，直接限制对私募机构放贷。</li>\n</ul>\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、贝莱德、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在内的巨头，已经面临超101亿美元的赎回挤兑，且只能勉强兑付70%。</p>\n<p>行业大佬的表态更是扯下了最后一块遮羞布。Apollo联席总裁John Zito在瑞银内部会议上直言：一家普通中小型软件公司的贷款，能收回20到40美分就算不错了。至于赎回潮会持续多久？“我也不知道。”</p>\n<p>摩根大通连夜撤回了Qualtrics 53亿美元的债务发行。美银分析师更是将当下的空气，闻出了2008年次贷危机的味道——“当年大家都说次级贷款只是局部问题，直到它掀翻了整个世界。”</p>\n<h2>战争时间表：越拖越危险</h2>\n<p>面对如此脆弱的金融底座，美股为什么还没崩？</p>\n<p>因为华尔街的精英们还在死守一个假设：这只是一场速战速决的局部冲突。</p>\n<p>最初，TS Lombard全球政治研究董事总经理Christopher Granville的基准预测是：冲突最多持续四到五周，市场扛得住。</p>\n<p>但这层窗户纸，在3月18日被彻底捅破。</p>\n<p>当天，以色列直接炸了伊朗最大的天然气田；作为报复，伊朗当晚用导弹端了卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城（重要能源枢纽）。</p>\n<p><strong>Granville连夜修改报告，将预测从“短暂冲击”直接上调为“类似2022年俄乌战争的五个月能源震荡”。</strong>他极其悲观地指出：重开海峡的方案大概率会失败。虽然特朗普为了大选不想看到高油价，但他那句“封锁海峡是其他国家的问题”，让美国尽早介入平息战火的可能性变得微乎其微。</p>\n<p>Arbroath Group管理合伙人Christopher Smart更是点出了一个让人绝望的现实：“即便明天奇迹般停火，世界也已经明白——全球20%石油的自由通行，取决于伊朗未来政府的心情。”</p>\n<p>瑞银策略师Bhanu Baweja发出了最后的警告：华尔街习惯了“政策一出问题美联储就会救市”的巨婴模式，但他们根本没有为一场持久战做好准备。如果冲突拖到4月，油价可能击穿150美元/桶。</p>\n<h2>三重危机交汇</h2>\n<p>将这三条线索交织在一起，一幅金融危机路线图徐徐展开：</p>\n<ol>\n<li>源头断水： 战争切断石油美元循环，抽干了原本流向美国AI和资本市场的中东流动性；</li>\n<li>内部失血： 规模高达1.8万亿美元的私募信贷市场，正在AI的冲击下面临生死重估，挤兑与违约相互踩踏；</li>\n<li>战争长期化： 战争长期化带来的高油价，将死死锁住美联储降息的空间，让本就脆弱的信贷环境雪上加霜。</li>\n</ol>\n<p>危机从来不会以人们预想的方式降临。它总是从一个看似遥远的局部冲突开始，顺着隐秘的资本血脉，最终在最繁华的金融中心，引发一场无人幸免的雪崩。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-19 15:11 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767891><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一场远在中东的战争，正在精准地切断美国金融体系的“大动脉”。\n表面上看，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁只是一场地缘政治引发的能源危机；但在水面之下，它正在阻断一条支撑全球资本市场运转数十年的隐秘血脉——石油美元循环。\n更为致命的是，大洋彼岸的美国，一个规模庞大的火药桶早已咝咝作响：美国私募信贷市场正以加速度恶化，消费贷款基金冻结赎回、华尔街巨头紧急撤回债务发行、行业高管公开预警。\n当“中东断流”撞上“华尔街...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767891\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bfb10b06725af696d5ea08c128fdad5","relate_stocks":{"AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4543":"AI","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","AIYY":"YIELDMAX AI OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","BK4588":"碎股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2620214523","content_text":"一场远在中东的战争，正在精准地切断美国金融体系的“大动脉”。\n表面上看，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁只是一场地缘政治引发的能源危机；但在水面之下，它正在阻断一条支撑全球资本市场运转数十年的隐秘血脉——石油美元循环。\n更为致命的是，大洋彼岸的美国，一个规模庞大的火药桶早已咝咝作响：美国私募信贷市场正以加速度恶化，消费贷款基金冻结赎回、华尔街巨头紧急撤回债务发行、行业高管公开预警。\n当“中东断流”撞上“华尔街失血”，两条危机线索正以向着同一个终点狂奔：一场酝酿中的美国金融危机。\n以色列与伊朗的互相袭击向核心能源设施蔓延，华尔街最初“冲突几周就会结束”的幻想正在破灭。如果伊朗战争继续拖长，危机可能在同一个点上引爆。\n石油美元：AI繁荣背后的中东资本\n要理解这场危机的深层逻辑，必须先看懂全球金融机器里隐秘的齿轮：石油美元循环（Petrocapital Cycle）。\n这个概念最早由经济学家el-Gamal和Jaffe系统提出：海湾产油国将卖石油赚来的天量美元，以投资的形式重新注入国际金融市场。这不仅防止了中东国家内部通胀过热，更为全球信贷体系提供了源源不断的流动性。\n自1973年石油危机诞生以来，这套循环就是支撑全球金融运转的隐形基石。历史早已证明，一旦这根血管被掐断，代价将是灾难性的。\n1979年石油冲击叠加1980年两伊战争，海湾国家为了打仗，将巨额资本从国际银行体系中疯狂抽离。结果是拉美国家资金链断裂，直接酿成了1982年拉美主权债务危机——这是历史上第一次由“石油美元断流”引发的系统性金融危机。\n如今，这套循环的规模已膨胀到令人咋舌的地步。截至2025年11月，仅阿联酋金融业持有的资产规模就高达1.4万亿美元。\n更重要的是，中东的钱，去哪了？答案是：硅谷和华尔街。\n当下最炙手可热的AI赛道，无论是英伟达的芯片、OpenAI的估值，还是私募市场里疯狂扩张的科技软件贷款，背后都站着中东金主。\n去年沙特王储萨勒曼访美，不仅承诺将对美投资从6000亿飙升至1万亿美元，更直接点名“AI芯片与算力”是核心。随后，谷歌、甲骨文、AMD等科技巨头与沙特签下800亿美元的“尖端技术”投资协议；沙特DataVolt更是豪掷200亿美元砸向美国AI数据中心。\n换句话说，中东的石油美元，早就深度焊死在了美国AI产业的资本链条上。\n然而，2月28日，齿轮卡壳了。\n霍尔木兹海峡关闭，伊朗布设水雷。惠誉起初还乐观预测“封锁一个月冲击温和”，但现实狠狠打了脸：海峡不仅长期受阻，关键油气基础设施更遭到持续轰炸。\n石油美元这条流向美国资本市场的大动脉，正在被战争死死勒紧。\n私募信贷：已在燃烧的火药桶\n如果说中东是外部断流，那么美国金融体系内部，一场危机早已悄然成形。\n在伊朗战争爆发前，华尔街的私募信贷市场就已经踩在了悬崖边上。而亲手推它下悬崖的，正是中东资本疯狂追捧的AI。\n过去几年，私募信贷野蛮生长，他们最喜欢干的事，就是把钱借给被私募股权收购的科技软件（SaaS）公司，赚取高额利差。瑞银和巴克莱的数据揭示了一个恐怖的集中度：私募信贷的贷款簿里，商业服务和信息技术加起来占比高达55%。\n这本是一场完美的资本游戏，直到Anthropic的Claude横空出世。\nAI开始以摧枯拉朽之势颠覆传统软件公司的商业模式。SaaS公司股价暴跌，它们偿还贷款的现金流瞬间成了画饼。底层资产烂了，私募信贷的多米诺骨牌随之倒塌。\n看看这份“崩盘时间表”：\n\n\n2月3日：私募信贷股票崩跌，“SaaS末日”冲击波蔓延；\n2月21日：巨头Blue Owl出现异常赎回，被华尔街视为“矿井里的金丝雀”；\n2月26日：瑞银警告，创纪录的“连锁违约”即将到来；\n3月5日：贝莱德（BlackRock）直接将一笔私人贷款从面值100硬生生砍到0；\n3月6日：全球最大资管公司贝莱德对260亿美元基金实施“关门打狗”（限制赎回）；\n3月11日：摩根大通下调抵押品估值，直接限制对私募机构放贷。\n\n\n目前，包括黑石、贝莱德、摩根士丹利在内的巨头，已经面临超101亿美元的赎回挤兑，且只能勉强兑付70%。\n行业大佬的表态更是扯下了最后一块遮羞布。Apollo联席总裁John Zito在瑞银内部会议上直言：一家普通中小型软件公司的贷款，能收回20到40美分就算不错了。至于赎回潮会持续多久？“我也不知道。”\n摩根大通连夜撤回了Qualtrics 53亿美元的债务发行。美银分析师更是将当下的空气，闻出了2008年次贷危机的味道——“当年大家都说次级贷款只是局部问题，直到它掀翻了整个世界。”\n战争时间表：越拖越危险\n面对如此脆弱的金融底座，美股为什么还没崩？\n因为华尔街的精英们还在死守一个假设：这只是一场速战速决的局部冲突。\n最初，TS Lombard全球政治研究董事总经理Christopher Granville的基准预测是：冲突最多持续四到五周，市场扛得住。\n但这层窗户纸，在3月18日被彻底捅破。\n当天，以色列直接炸了伊朗最大的天然气田；作为报复，伊朗当晚用导弹端了卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城（重要能源枢纽）。\nGranville连夜修改报告，将预测从“短暂冲击”直接上调为“类似2022年俄乌战争的五个月能源震荡”。他极其悲观地指出：重开海峡的方案大概率会失败。虽然特朗普为了大选不想看到高油价，但他那句“封锁海峡是其他国家的问题”，让美国尽早介入平息战火的可能性变得微乎其微。\nArbroath Group管理合伙人Christopher Smart更是点出了一个让人绝望的现实：“即便明天奇迹般停火，世界也已经明白——全球20%石油的自由通行，取决于伊朗未来政府的心情。”\n瑞银策略师Bhanu Baweja发出了最后的警告：华尔街习惯了“政策一出问题美联储就会救市”的巨婴模式，但他们根本没有为一场持久战做好准备。如果冲突拖到4月，油价可能击穿150美元/桶。\n三重危机交汇\n将这三条线索交织在一起，一幅金融危机路线图徐徐展开：\n\n源头断水： 战争切断石油美元循环，抽干了原本流向美国AI和资本市场的中东流动性；\n内部失血： 规模高达1.8万亿美元的私募信贷市场，正在AI的冲击下面临生死重估，挤兑与违约相互踩踏；\n战争长期化： 战争长期化带来的高油价，将死死锁住美联储降息的空间，让本就脆弱的信贷环境雪上加霜。\n\n危机从来不会以人们预想的方式降临。它总是从一个看似遥远的局部冲突开始，顺着隐秘的资本血脉，最终在最繁华的金融中心，引发一场无人幸免的雪崩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AI":0.74,"XOP":0.9,"AIYY":0.6,"FAZ":0.9,"XLE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544418049218528,"gmtCreate":1773940128564,"gmtModify":1773940130641,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544418049218528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544332238233712,"gmtCreate":1773919106289,"gmtModify":1773919107964,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544332238233712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544328987922656,"gmtCreate":1773918389338,"gmtModify":1773918391671,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强] [强] [强] ","listText":"[强] [强] [强] ","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544328987922656","repostId":"2620401041","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620401041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1773791140,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620401041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-18 07:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋：有信心达成1万亿美元收入预判","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620401041","media":"南方财经网","summary":"南方财经3月18日电，当地时间3月17日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在接受采访时表示，他提到的2025年至2027年收入1万亿美元的预判，只包含Blackwell和Rubin芯片的收入，不包含CPU等多元业务的收入。英伟达对这1万亿美元的收入预判是来自这部分业务的能见度和采购订单，英伟达对此有信心。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=105.NVDA&imageType=k&token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p> 南方财经3月18日电，当地时间3月17日，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></span><span></span>CEO黄仁勋在接受采访时表示，他提到的2025年至2027年收入1万亿美元的预判，只包含Blackwell和Rubin芯片的收入，不包含CPU等多元业务的收入。<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">英伟达</span>对这1万亿美元的收入预判是来自这部分业务的能见度和采购订单，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">英伟达</span>对此有信心。（第一财经） </p><p>（文章来源：南方财经网）</p> </div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋：有信心达成1万亿美元收入预判</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄仁勋：有信心达成1万亿美元收入预判\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-18 07:45 北京时间 <a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202603183675177985.html><strong>南方财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>南方财经3月18日电，当地时间3月17日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在接受采访时表示，他提到的2025年至2027年收入1万亿美元的预判，只包含Blackwell和Rubin芯片的收入，不包含CPU等多元业务的收入。英伟达对这1万亿美元的收入预判是来自这部分业务的能见度和采购订单，英伟达对此有信心。（第一财经） （文章来源：南方财经网）</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202603183675177985.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU2092937148.SGD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 SGD-H","SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","LU1992135472.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU2092627202.USD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 USD-H","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA 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（文章来源：南方财经网）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVIW.SI":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDA":1.94}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544328642262560,"gmtCreate":1773918238070,"gmtModify":1773918240143,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544328642262560","repostId":"2620075292","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620075292","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"链捕手ChainCatcher 成立于 2018 年，是一家领先的中文 Web3 媒体及数据服务商。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"链捕手","id":"1041503808","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f0784cc29a0d0070f6e968ef6ec7f5"},"pubTimestamp":1773885026,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620075292?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-19 09:50","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"马斯克：SpaceX AI 和特斯拉预计将大规模持续订购英伟达芯片","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620075292","media":"链捕手","summary":" ChainCatcher 消息，马斯克表示，SpaceX AI 和特斯拉 (TSLA.O) 预计将大规模持续订购英伟达 (NVDA.O) 芯片。 ","content":"<html><body><p><span>ChainCatcher 消息，马斯克表示，SpaceX AI 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> (TSLA.O) 预计将大规模持续订购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> (NVDA.O) 芯片。</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克：SpaceX AI 和特斯拉预计将大规模持续订购英伟达芯片</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克：SpaceX AI 和特斯拉预计将大规模持续订购英伟达芯片\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1041503808\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f0784cc29a0d0070f6e968ef6ec7f5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">链捕手 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-19 09:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><span>ChainCatcher 消息，马斯克表示，SpaceX AI 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> (TSLA.O) 预计将大规模持续订购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> (NVDA.O) 芯片。</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","SG9999015341.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD-H","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1127390331.HKD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2242649171.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1934455863.HKD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (HKD) 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0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读 | 美联储政策压制及白银期货跳水，2倍做多白银ETF盘前大跌11.27%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-19 16:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares（AGQ）今日盘前股价大跌11.27%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，此次下跌主要受到白银期货价格大幅走弱的拖累。美联储在近期会议上宣布维持利率不变，且降息预期进一步收敛，对金银等贵金属价格形成压制。同时，中东地缘冲突持续发酵，市场情绪偏向谨慎，加剧了白银的抛售压力。</p><p>作为追踪白银价格并带有两倍杠杆的ETF，AGQ的波动幅度被显著放大。隔夜交易中，COMEX白银期货价格一度下跌超7%，现货白银也大幅下挫，直接导致了该杠杆ETF的剧烈下跌。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AGQ":"2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126067483","content_text":"2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares（AGQ）今日盘前股价大跌11.27%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次下跌主要受到白银期货价格大幅走弱的拖累。美联储在近期会议上宣布维持利率不变，且降息预期进一步收敛，对金银等贵金属价格形成压制。同时，中东地缘冲突持续发酵，市场情绪偏向谨慎，加剧了白银的抛售压力。作为追踪白银价格并带有两倍杠杆的ETF，AGQ的波动幅度被显著放大。隔夜交易中，COMEX白银期货价格一度下跌超7%，现货白银也大幅下挫，直接导致了该杠杆ETF的剧烈下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AGQ":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544322680864880,"gmtCreate":1773916772947,"gmtModify":1773916774767,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544322680864880","repostId":"1176243321","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176243321","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1773908968,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176243321?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-19 16:29","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 2倍做多黄金ETF盘前大跌5.14%，受美联储鹰派立场及中东冲突打压","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176243321","media":"异动解读","summary":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares今日盘前股价大跌5.14%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次下跌主要受到多重因素影响。首先，美联储在最新议息会议上宣布维持利率不变，且点阵图显示决策者预计今年仅会降息一次，释放出偏鹰派的信号，这削弱了黄金作为无息资产的吸引力。","content":"<p>2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares（UGL）今日盘前股价大跌5.14%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，此次下跌主要受到多重因素影响。首先，美联储在最新议息会议上宣布维持利率不变，且点阵图显示决策者预计今年仅会降息一次，释放出偏鹰派的信号，这削弱了黄金作为无息资产的吸引力。其次，中东地缘冲突急剧升级，伊朗威胁打击沙特、阿联酋和卡塔尔的石油设施，导致国际油价飙升，加剧了市场对通胀上行的担忧，进而强化了美联储将利率维持在高位更长时间的预期，对金价构成直接压力。</p><p>此外，在市场避险情绪升温的背景下，资金并未完全流入黄金，反而更多地涌向美元等流动性更强的资产，推动美元指数走强，这也进一步打压了以美元计价的黄金价格。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读 | 2倍做多黄金ETF盘前大跌5.14%，受美联储鹰派立场及中东冲突打压\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-19 16:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares（UGL）今日盘前股价大跌5.14%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，此次下跌主要受到多重因素影响。首先，美联储在最新议息会议上宣布维持利率不变，且点阵图显示决策者预计今年仅会降息一次，释放出偏鹰派的信号，这削弱了黄金作为无息资产的吸引力。其次，中东地缘冲突急剧升级，伊朗威胁打击沙特、阿联酋和卡塔尔的石油设施，导致国际油价飙升，加剧了市场对通胀上行的担忧，进而强化了美联储将利率维持在高位更长时间的预期，对金价构成直接压力。</p><p>此外，在市场避险情绪升温的背景下，资金并未完全流入黄金，反而更多地涌向美元等流动性更强的资产，推动美元指数走强，这也进一步打压了以美元计价的黄金价格。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176243321","content_text":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares（UGL）今日盘前股价大跌5.14%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次下跌主要受到多重因素影响。首先，美联储在最新议息会议上宣布维持利率不变，且点阵图显示决策者预计今年仅会降息一次，释放出偏鹰派的信号，这削弱了黄金作为无息资产的吸引力。其次，中东地缘冲突急剧升级，伊朗威胁打击沙特、阿联酋和卡塔尔的石油设施，导致国际油价飙升，加剧了市场对通胀上行的担忧，进而强化了美联储将利率维持在高位更长时间的预期，对金价构成直接压力。此外，在市场避险情绪升温的背景下，资金并未完全流入黄金，反而更多地涌向美元等流动性更强的资产，推动美元指数走强，这也进一步打压了以美元计价的黄金价格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UGL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":541201488273944,"gmtCreate":1773154842158,"gmtModify":1773154844462,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/541201488273944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539845298259008,"gmtCreate":1772816238306,"gmtModify":1772816240298,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539845298259008","repostId":"2617883836","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2617883836","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772785548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617883836?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-06 16:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“银色狂想曲”再度激昂？供需赤字与工业叙事共振，白银再战100美元大关","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617883836","media":"智通财经","summary":"“银色狂想曲”迈向新牛市篇章？供需持续结构性赤字以及前沿技术领域的愈发火热工业应用需求助力，将在很大程度上支撑白银价格强势上行。花旗预计银价将在2026年第二季度再次向高点演进，甚至有望冲击110至150美元区间。美银认为若金价维持在5,000美元附","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今年以来最疯狂金属——白银的“聚光灯时刻”似乎还未结束，尽管这一贵金属资产在1月30日经历了十多年来最大规模的惨烈跌幅，且一度突破了每盎司超过100美元的史诗级关口。一些大宗商品分析师基于强劲的工业需求、供应长期结构性紧缺和避险资金流入等因素认为银价有望在2026年重新挑战100美元这一心理关口甚至有概率突破每盎司120美元这一历史峰值点位，部分更激进的预测甚至把目标放在更高水平。</p><p>在过去的一年里，虽然经历了自1月底创下的历史最高点位121.678美元以来高达30%的回调幅度，但是白银价值仍然上涨两倍多，大幅超过了最大市值规模贵金属黄金的涨幅，并使黄金与白银之间的比率达到了新的低点——即一盎司黄金等于多少盎司白银的金银比例。相比之下，黄金现货价格在过去一年上涨了约90%。当前现货白银价格徘徊在85美元附近，自2月低点以来大幅反弹近20%。</p><p>一些长期跟踪贵金属的分析师们表示，跟踪黄金价格走势轨迹，以及黄金与白银的比率可以提供白银是否被低估的重要线索。</p><p>“黄金与白银的比率当前中枢徘徊在48，而长期平均水平约为65，长期低值时为30，”来自Gabelli的黄金基金投资组合经理克里斯·曼奇尼(Chris Mancini)表示。“如果比率降到30的低点，那么在每盎司黄金为5100美元的情况下，白银的价格将是170美元每盎司。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3919a5243b63451714bb1e466e3cc221\" tg-width=\"1185\" tg-height=\"527\"/></p><p>市场对于白银的狂热投资情绪，可谓全面凸显出白银作为工业用途类重要金属需求持续激增、美债规模无序扩张导致资金愈发向贵金属转移以及在全球投资者常态资产配置组合中的贵金属权重日益增加。在一些对于白银持有积极看涨立场的分析师们看来，白银作为黄金的“情绪放大器”，有望继续享受比黄金强劲得多的资金涌入规模与涨势，并且押注白银今年剩余时间再度突破100美元以及再创历史新高绝非不可能，并且这种涨到三位数的超级牛市概率仍在不断扩张。</p><p><strong>银价剧烈波动背后的核心逻辑是什么?</strong></p><p>那么，过去一年为什么银价上涨如此猛烈且波动如此剧烈?分析师们普遍表示，银价的近期高位以及近期剧烈波动可以归因于几个非常关键的宏观经济因素，主要包括在美国财政巨额赤字与庞大美债利息支出的大背景之下资金从美元资产的大规模转移、地缘政治紧张局势以及全球经济不确定性，再加上庞大的投机势力蜂拥而至白银市场。</p><p>投资者们通常将黄金、白银和其他贵金属作为对抗通货膨胀率和其他经济不确定性时期的“最经典对冲工具组合”。当市场动荡时，这些投资通常被宣传为“安全避风港”资产，因为它们通常不会像股票和债券那样对经济或者地缘政治冲突升级作出激烈反应，然而随着愈发庞大的避险买盘推动黄金与白银在今年屡创新高，加之在高杠杆对冲基金等投机势力近期强劲推动之下黄金与白银波动率甚至比股票市场还剧烈得多。</p><p>“这不是关于白银，而是关于更广泛的宏观经济和政治环境，”贵金属市场专家、CPM集团的管理合伙人杰弗里·克里斯蒂安(Jeffrey Christian)在一次演讲中说道。</p><p>克里斯蒂安表示，经济学家们越来越担心“AI颠覆一切”导致的劳动力市场愈发疲软、地缘政治危局之下持续的强劲通货膨胀率以及关税和贸易限制对美国乃至全球经济的长期负面影响。</p><p>白银也因其广泛的应用而与其他贵金属资产截然不同。它不仅是对抗宏观经济紧张局势的经典对冲工具，也是几乎每一项前沿技术的关键组成部分，包括太阳能电池板、智能手机、电视、半导体甚至AI数据中心等。</p><p>工业需求叙事被重新定价可谓是这一轮白银价格飙升的最强叙事，正如世界白银协会在最新研究报告中指出的那样：AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼、电气化/新能源(含光伏)转型趋势、全球转向电动汽车的大趋势等，叠加持续的供需缺口，使得白银不再只是“跟着黄金走”;世界白银协会表示，光伏产业的17%年复合增长率、电动汽车产业的13%年复合增长率，以及全球AI数据中心的超过三位数爆发式扩张，共同构成了白银需求增长的三大支柱。</p><p>世界白银协会的在这份报告预计上述的这些行业将在2030年前持续推升工业领域对白银的需求，该协会重点指出，全球数据中心IT功率容量从2000年的0.93吉瓦增长到2025年的近50吉瓦，增长了足足53倍。该协会表示，这种指数级增长意味着全球更大规模的服务器、交换机和冷却系统，每个系统的核心组件都需要白银。</p><p>世界白银协会强调，白银在数据中心的大规模渗透与应用基于三大特性：最高电导率确保服务器电力传输中的能量损耗最小，对于需要99.999%正常运行时间的数据中心而言至关重要;优异热导率帮助设备保持安全温度范围，降低冷却能耗(冷却系统占数据中心总能耗的7-30%);高抗腐蚀性在高电负载和温度波动环境下保护组件。</p><p>然而，对白银的这种日益强劲增长的工业需求也导致了全球白银供应持续短缺。“由于白银实物供应限制、工业用途需求持续强劲以及由于经济不确定性催化投资者对于白银投资兴趣上升，不少华尔街最顶级分析师仍然预测白银价格在今年剩余时间仍将强劲上涨。”来自贵金属IRA公司Birch Gold Group的金融市场策略师彼得·里根(Peter Reagan)表示。</p><p>他补充表示，对于散户投资者们而言，现在是否投资于白银取决于财务目标以及风险承受能力。“白银在历史数据上而言波动性比黄金大得多。”里根表示。“黄金被认为是长期稳定的，而白银由于其工业需求，虽然有更高规格的回报潜力，但也伴随更高级别的风险。”</p><p><strong>“银色狂想曲”迈向新牛市篇章？</strong></p><p>需要注意的是，实物白银与纸白银之间(physical silver与paper silver)有显著区别——即实物贵金属，以及与通过ETF基金份额等方式投资白银现货/期货资产的纸白银。在剧烈波动的贵金属市场中，这两种资产的表现可能会有所不同，取决于投资者情绪以及是否喜欢将实物资产握在手中或者青睐长期储存实物白银。</p><p>“投资者们可以通过实物金条/白银(包括硬币和条状)、ETF或者矿业类股票获得对白银资产的配置。对于大多数投资者来说，ETF提供了最实用的风险敞口方式，”Coral Gables Trust的投资与规划副总裁迈克尔·昂格尔(Michael Unger)表示。</p><p>“白银可以作为有用的通胀对冲工具和投资组合的重要分散与多元化配置工具。然而，白银在一年内已经上涨了两倍多，这增加了短期波动的可能性，”昂格尔表示。“与其试图预测市场的进入时机，投资者们更应该通过逐步分配到更加多元化的投资组合中来应对。”</p><p>一些大宗商品分析师以及华尔街投行提出白银有望冲击甚至再度突破100美元关口，部分机构更激进预测二季度可达新的历史最高位，比如美银、花旗的白银观点显示这种贵金属可能在第二季度向更高区间演进。这种极度乐观的观点通常基于供应持续偏紧、实物库存去化、金银比修复趋势，以及工业需求(特别是清洁能源光伏、汽车电子以及AI数据中心等高端制造领域)显著增长的基本面逻辑。供需持续结构性赤字以及前沿技术领域的愈发火热工业应用需求助力，将在很大程度上支撑白银价格强势上行。</p><p>花旗预计银价将在2026年第二季度再次向高点演进，甚至有望冲击110至150美元区间。来自美国银行的贵金属研究部门负责人 Michael Widmer 给出了极其大胆的区间：135美元至309美元，Widmer表示，基于金银比(Gold-to-Silver Ratio)的历史压缩。美银认为若金价维持在5,000美元附近，且金银比回归1980年的14:1极端水平，白银理论上可达309美元。</p><p>来自BNP Paribas(法国巴黎银行)的资深策略师 Philippe Gijsels认为在美联储降息周期以及市场狂热情绪的强劲推动下，白银涨势将延续至2026年，并且他预计到2026年末白银在100美元/盎司之上“非常有可能”。来自First Majestic的首席执行官Keith Neumeyer自2025年以来，已经多次在采访中公开表达对白银交易价格三位数价格(100美元/盎司以上)的长期判断。</p><p>知名宏观策略师、投资通讯《Lyn Alden投资战略》创始人Lyn Alden近期在VRIC Media的专访中表示，白银在2026年进一步冲击100美元大关的可能性更大，但很可能不再是“低风险高回报”机会。“现在我认为这是一个更对称的高风险交易，如果它徘徊在100美元，或者明年跌到40美元，我都不会感到震惊。”不过这位策略师强调，她正在“降低其未来的投资回报预期”，因为白银“已经兑现了她之前的大部分理论”。</p><p>贵金属制造商及经销商Scottsdale Mint的创始人兼首席执行官Josh Phair在接受采访时表示：“我们正处于一场金属资源争夺战之中。”“美国正在迅速建立AI数据中心，并且美国必须拥有它(白银现货)来保护其在世界上的地位。若将通货膨胀因素考虑在内，白银的价格仍处于低位。”“如果将1980年50美元的银价按通货膨胀率进行调整，其数值已超过200美元。所以，我们甚至可以说，如今的白银价格仍然相当低廉。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“银色狂想曲”再度激昂？供需赤字与工业叙事共振，白银再战100美元大关\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-06 16:25 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410927.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年以来最疯狂金属——白银的“聚光灯时刻”似乎还未结束，尽管这一贵金属资产在1月30日经历了十多年来最大规模的惨烈跌幅，且一度突破了每盎司超过100美元的史诗级关口。一些大宗商品分析师基于强劲的工业需求、供应长期结构性紧缺和避险资金流入等因素认为银价有望在2026年重新挑战100美元这一心理关口甚至有概率突破每盎司120美元这一历史峰值点位，部分更激进的预测甚至把目标放在更高水平。在过去的一年里，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410927.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb26334bf6f4e25ca891e786d2e0bdfb","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410927.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2617883836","content_text":"今年以来最疯狂金属——白银的“聚光灯时刻”似乎还未结束，尽管这一贵金属资产在1月30日经历了十多年来最大规模的惨烈跌幅，且一度突破了每盎司超过100美元的史诗级关口。一些大宗商品分析师基于强劲的工业需求、供应长期结构性紧缺和避险资金流入等因素认为银价有望在2026年重新挑战100美元这一心理关口甚至有概率突破每盎司120美元这一历史峰值点位，部分更激进的预测甚至把目标放在更高水平。在过去的一年里，虽然经历了自1月底创下的历史最高点位121.678美元以来高达30%的回调幅度，但是白银价值仍然上涨两倍多，大幅超过了最大市值规模贵金属黄金的涨幅，并使黄金与白银之间的比率达到了新的低点——即一盎司黄金等于多少盎司白银的金银比例。相比之下，黄金现货价格在过去一年上涨了约90%。当前现货白银价格徘徊在85美元附近，自2月低点以来大幅反弹近20%。一些长期跟踪贵金属的分析师们表示，跟踪黄金价格走势轨迹，以及黄金与白银的比率可以提供白银是否被低估的重要线索。“黄金与白银的比率当前中枢徘徊在48，而长期平均水平约为65，长期低值时为30，”来自Gabelli的黄金基金投资组合经理克里斯·曼奇尼(Chris Mancini)表示。“如果比率降到30的低点，那么在每盎司黄金为5100美元的情况下，白银的价格将是170美元每盎司。”市场对于白银的狂热投资情绪，可谓全面凸显出白银作为工业用途类重要金属需求持续激增、美债规模无序扩张导致资金愈发向贵金属转移以及在全球投资者常态资产配置组合中的贵金属权重日益增加。在一些对于白银持有积极看涨立场的分析师们看来，白银作为黄金的“情绪放大器”，有望继续享受比黄金强劲得多的资金涌入规模与涨势，并且押注白银今年剩余时间再度突破100美元以及再创历史新高绝非不可能，并且这种涨到三位数的超级牛市概率仍在不断扩张。银价剧烈波动背后的核心逻辑是什么?那么，过去一年为什么银价上涨如此猛烈且波动如此剧烈?分析师们普遍表示，银价的近期高位以及近期剧烈波动可以归因于几个非常关键的宏观经济因素，主要包括在美国财政巨额赤字与庞大美债利息支出的大背景之下资金从美元资产的大规模转移、地缘政治紧张局势以及全球经济不确定性，再加上庞大的投机势力蜂拥而至白银市场。投资者们通常将黄金、白银和其他贵金属作为对抗通货膨胀率和其他经济不确定性时期的“最经典对冲工具组合”。当市场动荡时，这些投资通常被宣传为“安全避风港”资产，因为它们通常不会像股票和债券那样对经济或者地缘政治冲突升级作出激烈反应，然而随着愈发庞大的避险买盘推动黄金与白银在今年屡创新高，加之在高杠杆对冲基金等投机势力近期强劲推动之下黄金与白银波动率甚至比股票市场还剧烈得多。“这不是关于白银，而是关于更广泛的宏观经济和政治环境，”贵金属市场专家、CPM集团的管理合伙人杰弗里·克里斯蒂安(Jeffrey Christian)在一次演讲中说道。克里斯蒂安表示，经济学家们越来越担心“AI颠覆一切”导致的劳动力市场愈发疲软、地缘政治危局之下持续的强劲通货膨胀率以及关税和贸易限制对美国乃至全球经济的长期负面影响。白银也因其广泛的应用而与其他贵金属资产截然不同。它不仅是对抗宏观经济紧张局势的经典对冲工具，也是几乎每一项前沿技术的关键组成部分，包括太阳能电池板、智能手机、电视、半导体甚至AI数据中心等。工业需求叙事被重新定价可谓是这一轮白银价格飙升的最强叙事，正如世界白银协会在最新研究报告中指出的那样：AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼、电气化/新能源(含光伏)转型趋势、全球转向电动汽车的大趋势等，叠加持续的供需缺口，使得白银不再只是“跟着黄金走”;世界白银协会表示，光伏产业的17%年复合增长率、电动汽车产业的13%年复合增长率，以及全球AI数据中心的超过三位数爆发式扩张，共同构成了白银需求增长的三大支柱。世界白银协会的在这份报告预计上述的这些行业将在2030年前持续推升工业领域对白银的需求，该协会重点指出，全球数据中心IT功率容量从2000年的0.93吉瓦增长到2025年的近50吉瓦，增长了足足53倍。该协会表示，这种指数级增长意味着全球更大规模的服务器、交换机和冷却系统，每个系统的核心组件都需要白银。世界白银协会强调，白银在数据中心的大规模渗透与应用基于三大特性：最高电导率确保服务器电力传输中的能量损耗最小，对于需要99.999%正常运行时间的数据中心而言至关重要;优异热导率帮助设备保持安全温度范围，降低冷却能耗(冷却系统占数据中心总能耗的7-30%);高抗腐蚀性在高电负载和温度波动环境下保护组件。然而，对白银的这种日益强劲增长的工业需求也导致了全球白银供应持续短缺。“由于白银实物供应限制、工业用途需求持续强劲以及由于经济不确定性催化投资者对于白银投资兴趣上升，不少华尔街最顶级分析师仍然预测白银价格在今年剩余时间仍将强劲上涨。”来自贵金属IRA公司Birch Gold Group的金融市场策略师彼得·里根(Peter Reagan)表示。他补充表示，对于散户投资者们而言，现在是否投资于白银取决于财务目标以及风险承受能力。“白银在历史数据上而言波动性比黄金大得多。”里根表示。“黄金被认为是长期稳定的，而白银由于其工业需求，虽然有更高规格的回报潜力，但也伴随更高级别的风险。”“银色狂想曲”迈向新牛市篇章？需要注意的是，实物白银与纸白银之间(physical silver与paper silver)有显著区别——即实物贵金属，以及与通过ETF基金份额等方式投资白银现货/期货资产的纸白银。在剧烈波动的贵金属市场中，这两种资产的表现可能会有所不同，取决于投资者情绪以及是否喜欢将实物资产握在手中或者青睐长期储存实物白银。“投资者们可以通过实物金条/白银(包括硬币和条状)、ETF或者矿业类股票获得对白银资产的配置。对于大多数投资者来说，ETF提供了最实用的风险敞口方式，”Coral Gables Trust的投资与规划副总裁迈克尔·昂格尔(Michael Unger)表示。“白银可以作为有用的通胀对冲工具和投资组合的重要分散与多元化配置工具。然而，白银在一年内已经上涨了两倍多，这增加了短期波动的可能性，”昂格尔表示。“与其试图预测市场的进入时机，投资者们更应该通过逐步分配到更加多元化的投资组合中来应对。”一些大宗商品分析师以及华尔街投行提出白银有望冲击甚至再度突破100美元关口，部分机构更激进预测二季度可达新的历史最高位，比如美银、花旗的白银观点显示这种贵金属可能在第二季度向更高区间演进。这种极度乐观的观点通常基于供应持续偏紧、实物库存去化、金银比修复趋势，以及工业需求(特别是清洁能源光伏、汽车电子以及AI数据中心等高端制造领域)显著增长的基本面逻辑。供需持续结构性赤字以及前沿技术领域的愈发火热工业应用需求助力，将在很大程度上支撑白银价格强势上行。花旗预计银价将在2026年第二季度再次向高点演进，甚至有望冲击110至150美元区间。来自美国银行的贵金属研究部门负责人 Michael Widmer 给出了极其大胆的区间：135美元至309美元，Widmer表示，基于金银比(Gold-to-Silver Ratio)的历史压缩。美银认为若金价维持在5,000美元附近，且金银比回归1980年的14:1极端水平，白银理论上可达309美元。来自BNP Paribas(法国巴黎银行)的资深策略师 Philippe Gijsels认为在美联储降息周期以及市场狂热情绪的强劲推动下，白银涨势将延续至2026年，并且他预计到2026年末白银在100美元/盎司之上“非常有可能”。来自First Majestic的首席执行官Keith Neumeyer自2025年以来，已经多次在采访中公开表达对白银交易价格三位数价格(100美元/盎司以上)的长期判断。知名宏观策略师、投资通讯《Lyn Alden投资战略》创始人Lyn Alden近期在VRIC Media的专访中表示，白银在2026年进一步冲击100美元大关的可能性更大，但很可能不再是“低风险高回报”机会。“现在我认为这是一个更对称的高风险交易，如果它徘徊在100美元，或者明年跌到40美元，我都不会感到震惊。”不过这位策略师强调，她正在“降低其未来的投资回报预期”，因为白银“已经兑现了她之前的大部分理论”。贵金属制造商及经销商Scottsdale Mint的创始人兼首席执行官Josh Phair在接受采访时表示：“我们正处于一场金属资源争夺战之中。”“美国正在迅速建立AI数据中心，并且美国必须拥有它(白银现货)来保护其在世界上的地位。若将通货膨胀因素考虑在内，白银的价格仍处于低位。”“如果将1980年50美元的银价按通货膨胀率进行调整，其数值已超过200美元。所以，我们甚至可以说，如今的白银价格仍然相当低廉。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":2,"HTImain":2,"HSImain":2,"HSTECH":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}