75基点加息怎么看？来自华尔街一线的解读：别慌！_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

75基点加息怎么看？来自华尔街一线的解读：别慌！

华尔街见闻2022-06-16

超预期通胀后随之而来的便是超预期加息，单次加息75基点直接创下自1994年以来的近三十年最大幅度，利率已经来到2020年3月疫情爆发前的高位水平。眼下市场对此次“非常态”加息众说纷纭：75基点加息会持续吗？经济衰退会真正上演吗？资本市场会受到怎样的影响？以下为众机构分析师的看法，大致可以分为三类。第一类：冷静派这些分析师认为市场能够消化激进加息，呼吁大家不要惊慌，并且美联储不会持续激进。摩根士丹利...

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非洲韭菜盒子
·2022-06-16
华尔街：别慌！看我拉高出货
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狮子做趋势交易
·2022-06-16
老乡别走
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_0_0_0_0_0_
·2022-06-16
来个 200 点的。
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乱涨乱跌全靠搏
·2022-06-16
美联储主席鲍威尔：预计加息75个基点的举措不会成为常态。答：丧事喜办
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Rajadhyaksha认为7月会恢复到50基点加息：75个基点是一个强有力的举措，但鉴于我们在经济发展和楼市情况，我们相信美联储不需要再次宣布这样的措施，我们认为美联储会在7月加息50个基点。第二类：紧缩派一些分析师认为美联储的激进之路不会就此停止，美联储真正意识到通胀是一个重大问题，大幅度加息仍在路上。金融投资机构AlphaTrAI的首席信息官Max Gokhman表示未来会进一步加息：首先，现在显然是一场疯狂的小规模拔河比赛，其中空头正在获胜。我认为政策利率预测从上次会议的1.9%上调至3.4%表明了美联储的鹰派立场。不仅因为此举本身，而是它表明如果数据继续变化，美联储可以很快变得更加鹰派——也就是说，我们可以看到他们在未来会议上进一步加息。金融研究中心Schwab Center首席固定收益官Kathy Jones表示：市场预期7月会议将再加息75基点，9月可能会有所放缓，但我认为，尽管鲍威尔可能表明了这种计划，但我认为他也会尝试让事态更加‘开放’。彭博首席经济学家Anna Wong表示，美联储开始意识到通胀的严重性，会发出更紧缩的信号：FOMC的超大规模加息是在经济出现降温迹象的情况下进行的，这反映了美联储对近期通胀预期上升所发出的警告。鲍威尔决心不再重蹈Arthur Burns的覆辙，他曾在1970年代工资-价格螺旋式上升期间担任美联储主席。随着自1994年以来单次会议上的最大幅度加息——以及即将出现的更紧缩信号——彭博经济研究所认为，美联储已经处在快速追赶的位置......最新的SEP预测比过去更为现实，这表明官员们已经摆脱了物价压力会自行解决的“完美通货紧缩”的世界观。官员们现在似乎承认通胀是一个真正的问题，他们越来越认识到并接受紧缩货币政策所带来的成本。第三类：担忧派在上述基础上，另一些分析师重点阐述了激进加息的影响，认为美国经济将放缓，风险资产将面临冲击，而之后美联储甚至将被迫开始降息。宏利资产管理公司宏观策略全球主管Frances Donald表示，美联储激进加息后会启动降息，而且就在明年：今天的关键是美联储正在赶上市场的想法：提前加息推动失业率上升，然后在2024年降息。美联储很乐见加息至经济疲软，随后启动降息......我们预计宽松周期将在2023年就会启动，而不是2024年。投资机构Principal Global Investors首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，痛苦早晚会来临：市场非常担心加息100个基点，而75个基点已被完全消化。所以今天的决定并没有带来负面冲击......一旦（通胀）数据开始以更快的速度上冲，股市可能会再次下跌，而信贷市场肯定会面临更大的痛苦。无论你怎么看，痛苦不是在今天就是在明天。投资机构US Global Investors的首席交易员Michael Matousek表示，投资者可能会在经济衰退前“落袋为安”：投资者将改变他们的策略，不再买入势头强劲的股票，而是寻找下跌个股并尝试进行风险管理，我们已经无法乘上美联储的东风。更高的利率是调节通胀的必要措施，困难在于降低通胀的唯一方法是让经济放缓，我们知道投资者可能会在经济放缓之前抛售风险资产。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":689948606,"gmtCreate":1655354119508,"gmtModify":1704862037101,"author":{"id":"3566900685391720","authorId":"3566900685391720","name":"非洲韭菜盒子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566900685391720","idStr":"3566900685391720"},"htmlText":"华尔街：别慌！看我拉高出货","listText":"华尔街：别慌！看我拉高出货","text":"华尔街：别慌！看我拉高出货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689948606","repostId":2243592116,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689941966,"gmtCreate":1655353693058,"gmtModify":1704862034670,"author":{"id":"3574123395625866","authorId":"3574123395625866","name":"狮子做趋势交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af12a94316dc1d635182b0f091ca8f4a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574123395625866","idStr":"3574123395625866"},"htmlText":"老乡别走","listText":"老乡别走","text":"老乡别走","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689941966","repostId":2243592116,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689940343,"gmtCreate":1655352462186,"gmtModify":1704862029636,"author":{"id":"3455579464294773","authorId":"3455579464294773","name":"_0_0_0_0_0_","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3455579464294773","idStr":"3455579464294773"},"htmlText":"来个 200 点的。","listText":"来个 200 点的。","text":"来个 200 点的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689940343","repostId":2243592116,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689957265,"gmtCreate":1655352319361,"gmtModify":1704862028593,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"乱涨乱跌 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