鲍威尔证词后，高盛预计7月还会加25基点，美联储峰值利率达5.5-5.75%_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

鲍威尔证词后，高盛预计7月还会加25基点，美联储峰值利率达5.5-5.75%

华尔街见闻2023-03-08

摘要：鲍威尔的鹰派发言给市场当头一棒，高盛认为3月议息会议前的经济数据仍然坚挺，3月大概率加息50个基点，并将利率峰值预期上调25个基点。美联储鲍威尔出席国会听证时的鹰派发言，使3月加息50基点几率猛增，市场加息预期陡然上调，高盛经济学家认为，7月可能还会加息25个基点，并将利率峰值预期上调25个基点至5.5%-5.75%。当地时间3月7日，高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius 为首的团队接收到...

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iAm22
·2023-03-08
一旦能看到重点能看到预期就都不是事儿$亚马逊(AMZN)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$
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ruan_7128
·2023-03-08
不做单了，存美元拿利息好过。
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龙腾虎乐
·2023-03-08
加得不多嘛
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为首的团队接收到鲍威尔的信号后，在给客户的一份报告中指出，3月FOMC会前数据或许仍然坚挺，3月加息50个基点概率上升：我们认为3月会议前的数据喜忧参半，但总体上依然坚挺，因此我们认为3月FOMC会议更有可能加息50个基点而不是25个基点，今年的利率峰值达到5.5%-5.75%。高盛经济学家认为，即使3月的议息会议最终决定加息25个基点，但这也仅仅意味着他们在加息步伐上存在分歧，利率峰值仍将高于此前市场预期。华尔街见闻此前提及，当地时间3月7日，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国参议院银行委员会的听证会上作证，警告今年初的强劲数据可能促使联储不再继续放缓、而是加快加息的脚步，最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。鲍威尔在事先准备的演讲稿中重申，降低通胀的道路可能坎坷，认为超预期强劲的经济数据意味着，终端利率可能比联储此前预计的高。他说：近几个月，通胀一直在放缓，但通胀率回落至2%的过程还有很长的路要走，而且（道路）可能是坎坷的。正如我所提到的，最近的经济数据强于预期，这表明，最终的利率水平可能会高于之前的预期。如果整体数据暗示有必要加快（货币）紧缩，我们将准备加快加息步伐。恢复价格稳定可能需要我们一段时间内保持限制性的货币政策立场。鲍威尔有关利率高于预期的言论不算意外，但他同时还坦言准备需要时就加快加息，双重鹰派表态无疑给了市场当头一棒。美股收盘后，芝商所（CME）的“美联储观察工具”显示，美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场预计，3月美联储加息50个基点的几率从一天前的略超过31%升至70%以上，加息25个基点的几率从一天前的接近69%降至不足30%。美国国债收益率在美股早盘直线拉升；美元指数加速上行，重上105.00；美股指跌幅迅速扩大。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":627854796,"gmtCreate":1678237551416,"gmtModify":1678237553390,"author":{"id":"127367578255012","authorId":"127367578255012","name":"iAm22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c911514cff6758784e9ec02839cd3c8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"一旦能看到重点 &nbsp;能看到预期就都不是事儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"一旦能看到重点 &nbsp;能看到预期就都不是事儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"一旦能看到重点 能看到预期就都不是事儿$亚马逊(AMZN)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627854796","repostId":1151915022,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":627855552,"gmtCreate":1678237164976,"gmtModify":1678237166587,"author":{"id":"4131409357956500","authorId":"4131409357956500","name":"ruan_7128","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad7f9c1716c3dead55c9cc240346dcb","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"不做单了，存美元拿利息好过。","listText":"不做单了，存美元拿利息好过。","text":"不做单了，存美元拿利息好过。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627855552","repostId":1151915022,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":627855048,"gmtCreate":1678236871684,"gmtModify":1678236873065,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"加得不多嘛","listText":"加得不多嘛","text":"加得不多嘛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627855048","repostId":1151915022,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}