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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
05-20
AI能把崩盘时间往后推几年[捂脸] [捂脸] 该崩还得崩[喷血] 而且会更猛
传奇投资人震撼发声：若不是AI，美国经济和美股早在三年前就崩了
股市已经处于部分泡沫之中。
传奇投资人震撼发声：若不是AI，美国经济和美股早在三年前就崩了
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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
04-30
那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸] [捂脸]
Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机
然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的"错杀"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，"强烈反对"OpenAI增长放缓的论调。值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。
Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机
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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
04-24
不敢登陆了吗[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
美国军方正制定重新开战方案，重点打击霍尔木兹海峡周边的伊朗目标
迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。
美国军方正制定重新开战方案，重点打击霍尔木兹海峡周边的伊朗目标
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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
04-20
伊朗不能怂[强] [强] 干它[强] [强] [强]
美军向伊朗货船开火并登船控制，伊方称发射无人机还击
美海军陆战队员随后登上并控制这艘货船。
美军向伊朗货船开火并登船控制，伊方称发射无人机还击
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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
04-16
就会吹牛逼[捂脸] [捂脸] 去登陆嘛[开心] [开心] 我看最终能回来几个[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]
白宫高级官员称美国可“无限期”封锁伊朗港口
现在不会，永远都不会。
白宫高级官员称美国可“无限期”封锁伊朗港口
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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
04-13
见什么底？还没开始跌呢[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
中信建投：美股科技，见底了吗？
智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研究报告称，本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。本轮调整后，估值压缩+盈利上修，美股科技大概率筑底，当前是买点。中信建投主要观点如下：事件：美股科技板块自历史高点大幅回撤后，出现一定企稳迹象，叠加美伊开始谈判，当前是否是重新介入科技股的好时点?中信建投此前曾担忧，美国经济基础不牢，后续一旦复苏被证伪，相关板块有调整风险。
中信建投：美股科技，见底了吗？
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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
04-02
再怎么说裁员降薪也不是个好兆头[捂脸] [捂脸]
甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心
【甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心】又一家科技巨头通过裁员“弥补”在AI（人工智能）领域的巨额投入。近日，云服务供应商甲骨文（Oracle）公司宣布在全球范围内进行裁员，将有3万名员工受到影响，其中包括在印度的1.2万名员工。公司在内部信中写道，由于组织结构调整，需要进行运营整合，因此启动了大规模裁员。
甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心
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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
03-31
特朗普不傻的话还是赶快撤吧[捂脸] [捂脸]
特朗普：愿意在不重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的情况下结束战争
逐步结束当前战事。
特朗普：愿意在不重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的情况下结束战争
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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
03-07
$英伟达(NVDA)$
直奔160[龇牙] [龇牙]
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龙腾虎乐
龙腾虎乐
·
03-07
高盛没睡醒吧[捂脸] [捂脸] 睁开眼看看，霍尔木兹海峡一时半会儿不可能恢复正常
高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%
中东局势动荡之际，高盛逆势唱多，其策略团队认为强劲的经济和企业基本面意味着近期的市场回调是买入机会，这背后更有对霍尔木兹海峡流通短期内恢复的乐观预期。高盛首席石油策略师Daan Struyven预计，霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来5天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的70%，并于四周后实现100%的全面常态化。
高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%
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[捂脸] 该崩还得崩[喷血] 而且会更猛","listText":"AI能把崩盘时间往后推几年[捂脸] [捂脸] 该崩还得崩[喷血] 而且会更猛","text":"AI能把崩盘时间往后推几年[捂脸] [捂脸] 该崩还得崩[喷血] 而且会更猛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566199638320224","repostId":"1142822254","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142822254","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1779247335,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142822254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-20 11:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"传奇投资人震撼发声：若不是AI，美国经济和美股早在三年前就崩了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142822254","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"股市已经处于部分泡沫之中。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>人工智能(AI)对经济究竟有多少贡献？<strong>曾成功预测三次市场泡沫的传奇投资人Jeremy Grantham最新表示，如果不是因为人工智能带来大举投资，他认为美国经济很可能在2023年就陷入了衰退，而且股市也会暴跌。</strong>他在最新一档播客节目中表示： “我原本估计2023年，我们将陷入经济衰退，市场将再下跌 25%。而人工智能阻止了这种情况的发生。”“我们正处于未知领域，”他补充道，指的是美国经济对AI支出占GDP比例的“前所未有”的依赖。</p><p>人工智能的蓬勃发展推动了科技巨头们的大规模投资狂潮。据各公司声明，亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软今年共计拨出7250亿美元的资本支出，其中大部分将用于人工智能的建设。这一数额约占2025年美国GDP的2%。Grantham推测，如果不是人工智能，2023年的美国GDP增长率可能接近0%。人工智能领域的支出也对美股起到了重要的支撑作用。正是“七大科技巨头”(即人工智能交易的核心)在很大程度上推动标普500指数从2022年末到2023年走出了熊市。</p><p>而对于市场担心已久的泡沫问题，Grantham表示，实际上早在人工智能热潮兴起时，股市已经处于部分泡沫之中。他指的是2022年科技板块的大幅上涨以及人们对模因股的狂热追捧。“我们现在看到的是一个由泄了一半气、然后又复苏的泡沫再形成的泡沫。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>传奇投资人震撼发声：若不是AI，美国经济和美股早在三年前就崩了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n传奇投资人震撼发声：若不是AI，美国经济和美股早在三年前就崩了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-20 11:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>人工智能(AI)对经济究竟有多少贡献？<strong>曾成功预测三次市场泡沫的传奇投资人Jeremy Grantham最新表示，如果不是因为人工智能带来大举投资，他认为美国经济很可能在2023年就陷入了衰退，而且股市也会暴跌。</strong>他在最新一档播客节目中表示： “我原本估计2023年，我们将陷入经济衰退，市场将再下跌 25%。而人工智能阻止了这种情况的发生。”“我们正处于未知领域，”他补充道，指的是美国经济对AI支出占GDP比例的“前所未有”的依赖。</p><p>人工智能的蓬勃发展推动了科技巨头们的大规模投资狂潮。据各公司声明，亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软今年共计拨出7250亿美元的资本支出，其中大部分将用于人工智能的建设。这一数额约占2025年美国GDP的2%。Grantham推测，如果不是人工智能，2023年的美国GDP增长率可能接近0%。人工智能领域的支出也对美股起到了重要的支撑作用。正是“七大科技巨头”(即人工智能交易的核心)在很大程度上推动标普500指数从2022年末到2023年走出了熊市。</p><p>而对于市场担心已久的泡沫问题，Grantham表示，实际上早在人工智能热潮兴起时，股市已经处于部分泡沫之中。他指的是2022年科技板块的大幅上涨以及人们对模因股的狂热追捧。“我们现在看到的是一个由泄了一半气、然后又复苏的泡沫再形成的泡沫。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc02e59f9435ef09fea9c7a808cd768","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY 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Shares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142822254","content_text":"人工智能(AI)对经济究竟有多少贡献？曾成功预测三次市场泡沫的传奇投资人Jeremy Grantham最新表示，如果不是因为人工智能带来大举投资，他认为美国经济很可能在2023年就陷入了衰退，而且股市也会暴跌。他在最新一档播客节目中表示： “我原本估计2023年，我们将陷入经济衰退，市场将再下跌 25%。而人工智能阻止了这种情况的发生。”“我们正处于未知领域，”他补充道，指的是美国经济对AI支出占GDP比例的“前所未有”的依赖。人工智能的蓬勃发展推动了科技巨头们的大规模投资狂潮。据各公司声明，亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软今年共计拨出7250亿美元的资本支出，其中大部分将用于人工智能的建设。这一数额约占2025年美国GDP的2%。Grantham推测，如果不是人工智能，2023年的美国GDP增长率可能接近0%。人工智能领域的支出也对美股起到了重要的支撑作用。正是“七大科技巨头”(即人工智能交易的核心)在很大程度上推动标普500指数从2022年末到2023年走出了熊市。而对于市场担心已久的泡沫问题，Grantham表示，实际上早在人工智能热潮兴起时，股市已经处于部分泡沫之中。他指的是2022年科技板块的大幅上涨以及人们对模因股的狂热追捧。“我们现在看到的是一个由泄了一半气、然后又复苏的泡沫再形成的泡沫。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":2,"SSO":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,"SMAX":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4236573177318322","authorId":"4236573177318322","name":"偷鱼的夜鹭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab64e1c98e1c67075995f73d80941","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4236573177318322","authorIdStr":"4236573177318322"},"content":"世间万物都身处生灭法，有生有灭世间规律，问题的关键在于唱空的人永远无法准确预测出具体时间。","text":"世间万物都身处生灭法，有生有灭世间规律，问题的关键在于唱空的人永远无法准确预测出具体时间。","html":"世间万物都身处生灭法，有生有灭世间规律，问题的关键在于唱空的人永远无法准确预测出具体时间。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":559009564512584,"gmtCreate":1777508639477,"gmtModify":1777508641864,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559009564512584","repostId":"2631176295","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2631176295","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1777470978,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2631176295?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-29 21:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2631176295","media":"智通财经","summary":"然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，\"强烈反对\"OpenAI增长放缓的论调。值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。</p><h2 id=\"id_2626970504\">Wedbush的"错杀"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂</h2><p>放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，"强烈反对"OpenAI增长放缓的论调。该机构观察到，无论在消费者端还是企业端，OpenAI均保持着"非常高的需求"。该机构认为，近期完成1220亿美元融资后，OpenAI已拥有至少三年的充裕算力采购预算，暗示其履约能力并无实质性危机。</p><p>订单铁幕：Wedbush同时强调了甲骨文的压舱石——高达5530亿美元的剩余履约义务中，约3000亿美元来自与OpenAI签订的五年期云算力协议。这一合同为甲骨文提供了史无前例的收入可见性，使其在与同行对比时具备极强的防御属性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b59b632e6a8b7bd86183c84f3c4881\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>估值洼地：该机构不仅重申对甲骨文的"跑赢大盘"评级，更明确维持225美元的目标价——以当前股价计，意味着逾30%的上行空间。该股过去六个月已累计下跌38%，Wedbush认为当前估值已为投资者提供了显著的折扣安全边际。</p><p>资金充裕：Wedbush分析师解释说，鉴于两家公司近期都进行了融资，尤其是甲骨文，它们的状况良好。甲骨文公司正计划通过债务和股权融资筹集500亿美元，而OpenAI近期从众多投资者处筹集了1220亿美元。</p><p>值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。上周该机构已首次将甲骨文纳入覆盖范围，给予"跑赢大盘"评级和225美元目标价，指出甲骨文的资本支出有合同保障而非投机性质——其资本支出与RPO之比约为9%，远远低于行业平均约45.6%的水平。</p><h2 id=\"id_1436109366\">一份报道引发的"血案"</h2><p>触发此轮抛售情绪的源头是周二的一则报道，披露OpenAI近期未能达成其设定的新用户与营收目标。其中，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标，同时在编程工具和企业级市场，OpenAI正面临来自竞争对手Anthropic日益强烈的挤压，其Claude AI模型备受业界推崇。</p><p>用户流失率仍是挑战，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标。而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的Gemini AI模型去年人气显著上升，用户数量实现大幅增长、进而蚕食了OpenAI的市场份额。</p><p>值得一提的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>对OpenAI的追赶也体现在与谷歌相关联的一系列股票上。数据显示，近几个月以来，一篮子与OpenAI相关的股票明显跑输同业。自2024年底以来，该组股票累计上涨约75%，而类似的一组与谷歌相关的股票同期内的涨幅则超过300%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/073d78dea79839c71208fa970d00006e\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p>消息公布后，美股AI板块集体跳水。周二，甲骨文盘前一度暴跌7.7%至159.80美元，收盘跌超4%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>(CRWV.US)盘前下挫7.4%至104美元。日本<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFTBY\">软银集团</a>在东京市场收盘重挫近10%，创下自去年11月以来最大单日跌幅，美国OTC市场跌幅更达12.11%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)收跌1.63%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>(AVGO.US)与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>(AMD.US)跌幅均超过3%。纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.90%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数跌0.49%，道琼斯指数微跌0.05%——与OpenAI高度绑定的公司构成了这轮下跌的核心压力区。</p><p>尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。据知情人士透露，OpenAI首席财务官萨拉·弗里亚(Sarah Friar)已向公司高管层表达担忧：如果收入增长速度不够快，公司未来可能无法承担对甲骨文等公司的庞大算力采购义务。这一CFO级别的内部警示为市场注入了结构性的不确定性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1815b595a284dc30c8136004a906d1a4\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"688\"/></p><p>与此同时，OpenAI与甲骨文在得克萨斯州阿比林的"星际之门"(Stargate)旗舰数据中心扩建计划已于今年3月因融资谈判僵局和需求变化而正式泡汤。该项目原本计划将数据中心规模从1.2GW推进至接近2GW，如今已被搁置，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>正考虑接手相关扩容项目。这一事实提醒投资者，尽管合同RPO数字庞大，但从"合同签署"到"需求落地"之间并非没有断裂的空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_1861710477\">多空激辩</h2><p>围绕甲骨文"3000亿美元豪赌"的多空之争，已在华尔街形成鲜明对峙。看多方以Wedbush为代表，构画的逻辑基础清晰——巨额积压订单提供收入可见性、充裕融资保障项目交付、长线需求逻辑依然坚实。更深层的支撑是：甲骨文RPO的庞大底座，使公司在即便面临短期需求扰动时，仍保有远高于同业的防御纵深。</p><p>然而，空方的逻辑同样锋利。部分市场分析人士将甲骨文当前的处境定性为"对单一客户的单点信用风险暴露"。甲骨文的RPO中有高达54%集中于OpenAI一家客户，当这"最大信用支柱"的高管层自身都开始质疑公司的履约能力时，积压合同从"护城河"转变为"风险集中暴露点"的可能性便不容忽视。此外，甲骨文过去四个季度的自由现金流为-247亿美元，长期债务半年间从813亿美元暴增至1308亿美元——这一押注的代价是极其沉重的资产负债表扩张压力。</p><p>尽管如此，Wedbush分析师反驳道：“鉴于甲骨文公司此次 500 亿美元的融资计划主要通过债务融资来支持其数据中心建设，而数据中心建设又取决于OpenAI能否按时履行其采购承诺，我们对甲骨文完成此次融资计划的能力充满信心。虽然这些担忧值得关注，但我们认为甲骨文股价的回调是一个绝佳的买入机会，因为OpenAI预计将于今年年底上市，这将为该公司提供来自公开市场的全新融资渠道。我们认为近期围绕OpenAI的担忧有些过头，该公司在近期完成1220亿美元的融资后，拥有足够的资金来满足其未来至少三年的计算能力需求，这让我们相信甲骨文的积压订单将在短期内得到满足，而其上市之路也将为其长期承诺提供充足的流动性。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-29 21:56 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1436589.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1436589.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c35c8a27605936ee42c5dc8842ec36a","relate_stocks":{"LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" 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Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，\"强烈反对\"OpenAI增长放缓的论调。该机构观察到，无论在消费者端还是企业端，OpenAI均保持着\"非常高的需求\"。该机构认为，近期完成1220亿美元融资后，OpenAI已拥有至少三年的充裕算力采购预算，暗示其履约能力并无实质性危机。订单铁幕：Wedbush同时强调了甲骨文的压舱石——高达5530亿美元的剩余履约义务中，约3000亿美元来自与OpenAI签订的五年期云算力协议。这一合同为甲骨文提供了史无前例的收入可见性，使其在与同行对比时具备极强的防御属性。估值洼地：该机构不仅重申对甲骨文的\"跑赢大盘\"评级，更明确维持225美元的目标价——以当前股价计，意味着逾30%的上行空间。该股过去六个月已累计下跌38%，Wedbush认为当前估值已为投资者提供了显著的折扣安全边际。资金充裕：Wedbush分析师解释说，鉴于两家公司近期都进行了融资，尤其是甲骨文，它们的状况良好。甲骨文公司正计划通过债务和股权融资筹集500亿美元，而OpenAI近期从众多投资者处筹集了1220亿美元。值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。上周该机构已首次将甲骨文纳入覆盖范围，给予\"跑赢大盘\"评级和225美元目标价，指出甲骨文的资本支出有合同保障而非投机性质——其资本支出与RPO之比约为9%，远远低于行业平均约45.6%的水平。一份报道引发的\"血案\"触发此轮抛售情绪的源头是周二的一则报道，披露OpenAI近期未能达成其设定的新用户与营收目标。其中，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标，同时在编程工具和企业级市场，OpenAI正面临来自竞争对手Anthropic日益强烈的挤压，其Claude AI模型备受业界推崇。用户流失率仍是挑战，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标。而谷歌的Gemini AI模型去年人气显著上升，用户数量实现大幅增长、进而蚕食了OpenAI的市场份额。值得一提的是，谷歌对OpenAI的追赶也体现在与谷歌相关联的一系列股票上。数据显示，近几个月以来，一篮子与OpenAI相关的股票明显跑输同业。自2024年底以来，该组股票累计上涨约75%，而类似的一组与谷歌相关的股票同期内的涨幅则超过300%。消息公布后，美股AI板块集体跳水。周二，甲骨文盘前一度暴跌7.7%至159.80美元，收盘跌超4%;CoreWeave(CRWV.US)盘前下挫7.4%至104美元。日本软银集团在东京市场收盘重挫近10%，创下自去年11月以来最大单日跌幅，美国OTC市场跌幅更达12.11%。英伟达(NVDA.US)收跌1.63%;博通(AVGO.US)与AMD(AMD.US)跌幅均超过3%。纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.90%，标普500指数跌0.49%，道琼斯指数微跌0.05%——与OpenAI高度绑定的公司构成了这轮下跌的核心压力区。尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。据知情人士透露，OpenAI首席财务官萨拉·弗里亚(Sarah Friar)已向公司高管层表达担忧：如果收入增长速度不够快，公司未来可能无法承担对甲骨文等公司的庞大算力采购义务。这一CFO级别的内部警示为市场注入了结构性的不确定性。与此同时，OpenAI与甲骨文在得克萨斯州阿比林的\"星际之门\"(Stargate)旗舰数据中心扩建计划已于今年3月因融资谈判僵局和需求变化而正式泡汤。该项目原本计划将数据中心规模从1.2GW推进至接近2GW，如今已被搁置，Meta正考虑接手相关扩容项目。这一事实提醒投资者，尽管合同RPO数字庞大，但从\"合同签署\"到\"需求落地\"之间并非没有断裂的空间。多空激辩围绕甲骨文\"3000亿美元豪赌\"的多空之争，已在华尔街形成鲜明对峙。看多方以Wedbush为代表，构画的逻辑基础清晰——巨额积压订单提供收入可见性、充裕融资保障项目交付、长线需求逻辑依然坚实。更深层的支撑是：甲骨文RPO的庞大底座，使公司在即便面临短期需求扰动时，仍保有远高于同业的防御纵深。然而，空方的逻辑同样锋利。部分市场分析人士将甲骨文当前的处境定性为\"对单一客户的单点信用风险暴露\"。甲骨文的RPO中有高达54%集中于OpenAI一家客户，当这\"最大信用支柱\"的高管层自身都开始质疑公司的履约能力时，积压合同从\"护城河\"转变为\"风险集中暴露点\"的可能性便不容忽视。此外，甲骨文过去四个季度的自由现金流为-247亿美元，长期债务半年间从813亿美元暴增至1308亿美元——这一押注的代价是极其沉重的资产负债表扩张压力。尽管如此，Wedbush分析师反驳道：“鉴于甲骨文公司此次 500 亿美元的融资计划主要通过债务融资来支持其数据中心建设，而数据中心建设又取决于OpenAI能否按时履行其采购承诺，我们对甲骨文完成此次融资计划的能力充满信心。虽然这些担忧值得关注，但我们认为甲骨文股价的回调是一个绝佳的买入机会，因为OpenAI预计将于今年年底上市，这将为该公司提供来自公开市场的全新融资渠道。我们认为近期围绕OpenAI的担忧有些过头，该公司在近期完成1220亿美元的融资后，拥有足够的资金来满足其未来至少三年的计算能力需求，这让我们相信甲骨文的积压订单将在短期内得到满足，而其上市之路也将为其长期承诺提供充足的流动性。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCS":0.6,"ORCX":0.6,"ORCL":1.97,"ORCU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557058678003832,"gmtCreate":1777024277071,"gmtModify":1777024279720,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不敢登陆了吗[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"不敢登陆了吗[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"不敢登陆了吗[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557058678003832","repostId":"1154651535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154651535","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777017085,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154651535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 15:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国军方正制定重新开战方案，重点打击霍尔木兹海峡周边的伊朗目标","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154651535","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国有线电视新闻网援引消息人士的话报道称，<strong>美国军方正在制定新方案，一旦美伊停火破裂，美军将针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡周边的军事防御能力进行重点打击。</strong></p><p>报道还称，美军还可能对伊朗军民两用设施和基础设施，包括能源设施，发动袭击，迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p>目前，布伦特原油期货价格涨幅超1%，WTI油价涨超0.9%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国军方正制定重新开战方案，重点打击霍尔木兹海峡周边的伊朗目标</title>\n<style 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15:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国有线电视新闻网援引消息人士的话报道称，<strong>美国军方正在制定新方案，一旦美伊停火破裂，美军将针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡周边的军事防御能力进行重点打击。</strong></p><p>报道还称，美军还可能对伊朗军民两用设施和基础设施，包括能源设施，发动袭击，迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p>目前，布伦特原油期货价格涨幅超1%，WTI油价涨超0.9%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10617d656159f9b4a642ca98521d59e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154651535","content_text":"美国有线电视新闻网援引消息人士的话报道称，美国军方正在制定新方案，一旦美伊停火破裂，美军将针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡周边的军事防御能力进行重点打击。报道还称，美军还可能对伊朗军民两用设施和基础设施，包括能源设施，发动袭击，迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。(CCTV国际时讯)目前，布伦特原油期货价格涨幅超1%，WTI油价涨超0.9%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555454968936424,"gmtCreate":1776643761810,"gmtModify":1776649350439,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"伊朗不能怂[强] [强] 干它[强] [强] [强] ","listText":"伊朗不能怂[强] [强] 干它[强] [强] [强] ","text":"伊朗不能怂[强] [强] 干它[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555454968936424","repostId":"1183962709","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183962709","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1776641620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183962709?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-20 07:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美军向伊朗货船开火并登船控制，伊方称发射无人机还击","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183962709","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美海军陆战队员随后登上并控制这艘货船。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美军中央司令部19日在社交媒体发布消息称，美军一艘导弹驱逐舰当天拦截一艘穿越北阿拉伯海、准备前往伊朗阿巴斯港的伊朗货船，用舰炮向其机舱开火，使其失去推进动力。美海军陆战队员随后登上并控制这艘货船。</p><p>据伊朗光明通讯社20日凌晨报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人表示，美军19日在阿曼湾海域袭击一艘伊朗集装箱货船，伊朗武装部队随后发射多架无人机，打击数艘美方军舰。（新华社）</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美军向伊朗货船开火并登船控制，伊方称发射无人机还击</title>\n<style 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07:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美军中央司令部19日在社交媒体发布消息称，美军一艘导弹驱逐舰当天拦截一艘穿越北阿拉伯海、准备前往伊朗阿巴斯港的伊朗货船，用舰炮向其机舱开火，使其失去推进动力。美海军陆战队员随后登上并控制这艘货船。</p><p>据伊朗光明通讯社20日凌晨报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人表示，美军19日在阿曼湾海域袭击一艘伊朗集装箱货船，伊朗武装部队随后发射多架无人机，打击数艘美方军舰。（新华社）</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a8469fe1ccfcc42fd07de1edebfccc","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183962709","content_text":"美军中央司令部19日在社交媒体发布消息称，美军一艘导弹驱逐舰当天拦截一艘穿越北阿拉伯海、准备前往伊朗阿巴斯港的伊朗货船，用舰炮向其机舱开火，使其失去推进动力。美海军陆战队员随后登上并控制这艘货船。据伊朗光明通讯社20日凌晨报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人表示，美军19日在阿曼湾海域袭击一艘伊朗集装箱货船，伊朗武装部队随后发射多架无人机，打击数艘美方军舰。（新华社）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554109208266840,"gmtCreate":1776315208154,"gmtModify":1776315786559,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"就会吹牛逼[捂脸] 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12:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"白宫高级官员称美国可“无限期”封锁伊朗港口","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102538833","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"现在不会，永远都不会。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>白宫顾问、特朗普的高级助手斯蒂芬·米勒在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，美国可以继续“无限期”封锁伊朗港口。米勒表示，特朗普是“一位爱好和平的人”，但他同时补充道，美国已经明确表明了自己的立场：“美国不会被欺凌，美国也永远都不会受到拥有核武器的伊朗的威胁。现在不会，永远都不会。”</p><p>米勒表示：“一场军事行动可能会彻底摧毁伊朗的能源基础设施数代之久。但特朗普明确表示自己不想这么做。他希望伊朗能选择正确的道路来达成协议。这项封锁正在严重损害伊朗政权的经济实力，而美国有能力无限期地维持这种封锁状态，前提是伊朗选择了错误的道路。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>白宫高级官员称美国可“无限期”封锁伊朗港口</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n白宫高级官员称美国可“无限期”封锁伊朗港口\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-16 12:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>白宫顾问、特朗普的高级助手斯蒂芬·米勒在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，美国可以继续“无限期”封锁伊朗港口。米勒表示，特朗普是“一位爱好和平的人”，但他同时补充道，美国已经明确表明了自己的立场：“美国不会被欺凌，美国也永远都不会受到拥有核武器的伊朗的威胁。现在不会，永远都不会。”</p><p>米勒表示：“一场军事行动可能会彻底摧毁伊朗的能源基础设施数代之久。但特朗普明确表示自己不想这么做。他希望伊朗能选择正确的道路来达成协议。这项封锁正在严重损害伊朗政权的经济实力，而美国有能力无限期地维持这种封锁状态，前提是伊朗选择了错误的道路。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10617d656159f9b4a642ca98521d59e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102538833","content_text":"白宫顾问、特朗普的高级助手斯蒂芬·米勒在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，美国可以继续“无限期”封锁伊朗港口。米勒表示，特朗普是“一位爱好和平的人”，但他同时补充道，美国已经明确表明了自己的立场：“美国不会被欺凌，美国也永远都不会受到拥有核武器的伊朗的威胁。现在不会，永远都不会。”米勒表示：“一场军事行动可能会彻底摧毁伊朗的能源基础设施数代之久。但特朗普明确表示自己不想这么做。他希望伊朗能选择正确的道路来达成协议。这项封锁正在严重损害伊朗政权的经济实力，而美国有能力无限期地维持这种封锁状态，前提是伊朗选择了错误的道路。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":2,"NQmain":2,"YMmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":552973924094296,"gmtCreate":1776037964729,"gmtModify":1776037967299,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"见什么底？还没开始跌呢[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"见什么底？还没开始跌呢[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"见什么底？还没开始跌呢[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/552973924094296","repostId":"2626412178","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2626412178","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775950808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2626412178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-12 07:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中信建投：美股科技，见底了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2626412178","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研究报告称，本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。本轮调整后，估值压缩+盈利上修，美股科技大概率筑底，当前是买点。中信建投主要观点如下：事件：美股科技板块自历史高点大幅回撤后，出现一定企稳迹象，叠加美伊开始谈判，当前是否是重新介入科技股的好时点?中信建投此前曾担忧，美国经济基础不牢，后续一旦复苏被证伪，相关板块有调整风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06066\">中信建投证券</a>发布研究报告称，本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。本轮调整后，估值压缩+盈利上修，美股科技大概率筑底，当前是买点。基准情形，即使估值在AI担忧下无法扩张，盈利改善仍能提供上涨空间。乐观情形，演绎戴维斯双击。悲观情形，美伊冲突导致二次探底，科技依然有相对收益。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">中信建投</a>主要观点如下：</p><p><strong>事件：</strong>美股科技板块自历史高点大幅回撤后，出现一定企稳迹象，叠加美伊开始谈判，当前是否是重新介入科技股的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSY\">好时</a>点?</p><p><strong>简评：</strong></p><p>本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。</p><p>标普500在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。</p><p>尽管科技股仍面临诸多短期问题，但中长期仍不敢轻易看空。那么，当前美股科技是否处在买点位置?</p><p>该机构认为，调整至今，美股科技大概率在底部区间，<strong>可以逢低配置</strong>：</p><p><strong>第一，</strong>美股科技的估值压力极大释放，盈利上修，基本面稳健;</p><p><strong>第二，</strong>基准情形下，即使估值在AI各种担忧下无法再度扩张，盈利的改善仍能提供上涨空间;</p><p><strong>第三，</strong>乐观情形下，不排除出现“戴维斯双击”的可能;</p><p><strong>第四，</strong>悲观情形下，若宏观冲击导致二次探底，科技股依然有相对收益，提供一定避险功能。</p><p><strong>关注以下逻辑：</strong></p><p><strong>(1)科技股估值大幅压缩，近六年最低;且相对大盘的溢价率开始接近零，为2017年来最低</strong></p><p>标普500信息技术板块的估值从巅峰30.5倍左右，已经下滑至最低19倍，基本回到疫情前的水平。</p><p>更关键的是，科技板块估值相对美股大盘的溢价率已经降至5%左右，为2017年以来最低。若后续市场继续修复，科技板块溢价率或重新回升。</p><p><strong>(2)科技股内部，估值的压缩具备广泛性，而非软件股等单一推动</strong></p><p>前期AI的进展，对软件公司的估值造成了重大打击。但数据显示，自去年下半年以来，软件行业估值最大压缩幅度为40%，而整体科技板块则为36%，并没有显著的差距。这意味着估值的修复，广泛存在于诸多科技子板块中(整体均安全)，并非软件股单一拉动。</p><p><strong>(3)科技股的盈利预期强劲，年初以来持续上修，相对优势明显;侧面反映出，目前对AI的质疑风险仍主要集中在估值层面</strong></p><p>年初以来，科技板块的2026年盈利预期上修了超过10%，而消费、地产、工业等顺周期板块均出现明显下修。当前，科技板块估值的10年分位低于50%，仅高于地产板块，同时盈利增速远远领先其他板块。</p><p>当估值的溢价消失后，其盈利的稳健性优势重新彰显，性价比较高。</p><p>盈利预期的稳定，也从侧面反映出，近期科技股的调整，主要是消化估值，背后是AI资本开支等质疑，市场暂时并没有对行业的短期经营产生系统性担忧。</p><p><strong>(4)AI负面叙事的情绪有所淡化，美伊冲突以来，科技股发挥避险属性，重获青睐</strong></p><p>AI的负面叙事不断强化，去年四季度开始，纳指开始持续跑输大盘，侧面显示市场对其的疑虑。但中东局势恶化后，风格再度切换回科技占优，市场对其态度出现边际改善。</p><p><strong>(5)整体美股的下跌风险可控，为科技护航：一是，10%关键回撤水平守住;二是，顺周期超涨的压力局部释放</strong></p><p>除了AI质疑的压力外，美股一季度面临的另两个风险来自：地缘的系统性风险，和复苏交易被证伪的结构性风险。暂时来看，两者相对安全，整体美股不大跌，对科技的回暖也能起到护航作用。</p><p>第一，美伊冲突后，标普500自历史高点最大回撤在10%左右，纳指在15%左右，与美股每年1次左右的10%常规回撤相仿，并没有显示出严重的系统性风险倾向。而类似去年关税冲击、2022年加息冲击，标普500回撤均达到20%以上的量级(一般3年左右1次)，只要冲突不大幅恶化，标普500尽管可能回踩10%跌幅一线(二次探底)，但有底部支撑。</p><p>第二，去年底至今年初，复苏交易成为主流叙事，背后逻辑包括降息、减税等政策效果的期待。顺周期板块在盈利预期改善的推动下，大幅上涨。中信建投此前曾担忧，美国经济基础不牢，后续一旦复苏被证伪，相关板块有调整风险。目前来看，美伊冲突帮助刺破了相关预期，一季度，工业、消费、地产等板块盈利预期被显著下修，实现了压力释放。</p><p><strong>(6)下半年降息预期回归，对科技股形成宏观助力</strong></p><p>维持对全年降息的乐观态度，利率回落整体有利于科技叙事。</p><p><strong>风险提示：</strong>美国通胀上行超预期，美国经济增长超预期，导致美联储货币政策继续收紧，美元大幅升值，美债利率上行，美股继续下跌，商业银行破产危机，以及新兴市场出现货币和债务危机。美国经济衰退超预期，导致金融市场出现流动性危机，联储被迫转向宽松。欧洲能源危机超预期，欧元区经济陷入深度衰退，全球市场陷入动荡，外需萎缩，政策面临两难。全球地缘风险加剧，中美关系恶化超预期，大宗商品、运输出现不可控因素，逆全球化程度进一步加深，供应链持续被破坏，相关资源争夺恶化。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信建投：美股科技，见底了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-12 07:40 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427418.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中信建投证券发布研究报告称，本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。标普500在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。本轮调整后，估值压缩+盈利上修，美股科技大概率筑底，当前是买点。基准情形，即使估值在AI担忧下无法扩张，盈利改善仍能提供上涨空间。乐观情形，演绎戴维斯...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427418.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK0276":"资本市场",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427418.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2626412178","content_text":"中信建投证券发布研究报告称，本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。标普500在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。本轮调整后，估值压缩+盈利上修，美股科技大概率筑底，当前是买点。基准情形，即使估值在AI担忧下无法扩张，盈利改善仍能提供上涨空间。乐观情形，演绎戴维斯双击。悲观情形，美伊冲突导致二次探底，科技依然有相对收益。中信建投主要观点如下：事件：美股科技板块自历史高点大幅回撤后，出现一定企稳迹象，叠加美伊开始谈判，当前是否是重新介入科技股的好时点?简评：本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。标普500在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。尽管科技股仍面临诸多短期问题，但中长期仍不敢轻易看空。那么，当前美股科技是否处在买点位置?该机构认为，调整至今，美股科技大概率在底部区间，可以逢低配置：第一，美股科技的估值压力极大释放，盈利上修，基本面稳健;第二，基准情形下，即使估值在AI各种担忧下无法再度扩张，盈利的改善仍能提供上涨空间;第三，乐观情形下，不排除出现“戴维斯双击”的可能;第四，悲观情形下，若宏观冲击导致二次探底，科技股依然有相对收益，提供一定避险功能。关注以下逻辑：(1)科技股估值大幅压缩，近六年最低;且相对大盘的溢价率开始接近零，为2017年来最低标普500信息技术板块的估值从巅峰30.5倍左右，已经下滑至最低19倍，基本回到疫情前的水平。更关键的是，科技板块估值相对美股大盘的溢价率已经降至5%左右，为2017年以来最低。若后续市场继续修复，科技板块溢价率或重新回升。(2)科技股内部，估值的压缩具备广泛性，而非软件股等单一推动前期AI的进展，对软件公司的估值造成了重大打击。但数据显示，自去年下半年以来，软件行业估值最大压缩幅度为40%，而整体科技板块则为36%，并没有显著的差距。这意味着估值的修复，广泛存在于诸多科技子板块中(整体均安全)，并非软件股单一拉动。(3)科技股的盈利预期强劲，年初以来持续上修，相对优势明显;侧面反映出，目前对AI的质疑风险仍主要集中在估值层面年初以来，科技板块的2026年盈利预期上修了超过10%，而消费、地产、工业等顺周期板块均出现明显下修。当前，科技板块估值的10年分位低于50%，仅高于地产板块，同时盈利增速远远领先其他板块。当估值的溢价消失后，其盈利的稳健性优势重新彰显，性价比较高。盈利预期的稳定，也从侧面反映出，近期科技股的调整，主要是消化估值，背后是AI资本开支等质疑，市场暂时并没有对行业的短期经营产生系统性担忧。(4)AI负面叙事的情绪有所淡化，美伊冲突以来，科技股发挥避险属性，重获青睐AI的负面叙事不断强化，去年四季度开始，纳指开始持续跑输大盘，侧面显示市场对其的疑虑。但中东局势恶化后，风格再度切换回科技占优，市场对其态度出现边际改善。(5)整体美股的下跌风险可控，为科技护航：一是，10%关键回撤水平守住;二是，顺周期超涨的压力局部释放除了AI质疑的压力外，美股一季度面临的另两个风险来自：地缘的系统性风险，和复苏交易被证伪的结构性风险。暂时来看，两者相对安全，整体美股不大跌，对科技的回暖也能起到护航作用。第一，美伊冲突后，标普500自历史高点最大回撤在10%左右，纳指在15%左右，与美股每年1次左右的10%常规回撤相仿，并没有显示出严重的系统性风险倾向。而类似去年关税冲击、2022年加息冲击，标普500回撤均达到20%以上的量级(一般3年左右1次)，只要冲突不大幅恶化，标普500尽管可能回踩10%跌幅一线(二次探底)，但有底部支撑。第二，去年底至今年初，复苏交易成为主流叙事，背后逻辑包括降息、减税等政策效果的期待。顺周期板块在盈利预期改善的推动下，大幅上涨。中信建投此前曾担忧，美国经济基础不牢，后续一旦复苏被证伪，相关板块有调整风险。目前来看，美伊冲突帮助刺破了相关预期，一季度，工业、消费、地产等板块盈利预期被显著下修，实现了压力释放。(6)下半年降息预期回归，对科技股形成宏观助力维持对全年降息的乐观态度，利率回落整体有利于科技叙事。风险提示：美国通胀上行超预期，美国经济增长超预期，导致美联储货币政策继续收紧，美元大幅升值，美债利率上行，美股继续下跌，商业银行破产危机，以及新兴市场出现货币和债务危机。美国经济衰退超预期，导致金融市场出现流动性危机，联储被迫转向宽松。欧洲能源危机超预期，欧元区经济陷入深度衰退，全球市场陷入动荡，外需萎缩，政策面临两难。全球地缘风险加剧，中美关系恶化超预期，大宗商品、运输出现不可控因素，逆全球化程度进一步加深，供应链持续被破坏，相关资源争夺恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,"NDX":2,".DJI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":549236213244600,"gmtCreate":1775112703908,"gmtModify":1775112706192,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"再怎么说裁员降薪也不是个好兆头[捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"再怎么说裁员降薪也不是个好兆头[捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"再怎么说裁员降薪也不是个好兆头[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549236213244600","repostId":"2624520970","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2624520970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775108520,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2624520970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-02 13:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624520970","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"【甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心】又一家科技巨头通过裁员“弥补”在AI（人工智能）领域的巨额投入。近日，云服务供应商甲骨文（Oracle）公司宣布在全球范围内进行裁员，将有3万名员工受到影响，其中包括在印度的1.2万名员工。公司在内部信中写道，由于组织结构调整，需要进行运营整合，因此启动了大规模裁员。","content":"<div>\n<p>又一家科技巨头通过裁员“弥补”在AI（人工智能）领域的巨额投入。 近日，云服务供应商甲骨文（Oracle）公司宣布在全球范围内进行裁员，将有3万名员工受到影响，其中包括在印度的1.2万名员工。公司在内部信中写道，由于组织结构调整，需要进行运营整合，因此启动了大规模裁员。 公开资料显示，截至2025年5月，甲骨文拥有16.2万名员工。 据外媒报道，有公司内部人士表示，甲骨文开启本次裁员的一大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202604023693234751.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-02 13:42 北京时间 <a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202604023693234751.html><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>又一家科技巨头通过裁员“弥补”在AI（人工智能）领域的巨额投入。 近日，云服务供应商甲骨文（Oracle）公司宣布在全球范围内进行裁员，将有3万名员工受到影响，其中包括在印度的1.2万名员工。公司在内部信中写道，由于组织结构调整，需要进行运营整合，因此启动了大规模裁员。 公开资料显示，截至2025年5月，甲骨文拥有16.2万名员工。 据外媒报道，有公司内部人士表示，甲骨文开启本次裁员的一大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202604023693234751.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU1489326972.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-MD SGD-H","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) 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《华尔街日报》指出，此举是该公司削减成本措施的一部分，旨在将资源用于建设昂贵的人工智能数据中心。 虽然今年以来，甲骨文屡次传出即将展开大规模裁员的消息，但对于员工来说，本次裁员依然来得十分突然。不少员工在当地时间3月31日的凌晨就收到了裁员通知，被收回在公司的一切权限。 同时，从员工在社交媒体上的反应可以看出，此次裁员波及的职级范围极广，从最初级的员工级别之一“个人贡献者2级（IC2）”到高级软件工程经理（M6）均未能幸免，甚至还包括一些入职仅8个月的新人。 例如，甲骨文高级经理Michael Shepherd在领英上写道，虽然自己没有受到影响，但已知有“高级工程师、架构师、运营主管、项目经理和技术专家”被解雇，本次“大规模裁员”似乎并非基于员工绩效。 即使能够从裁员中“幸存”，许多员工也对未来感到不安。有甲骨文员工对外媒表示，大家普遍认为这不会是最后一次裁员，以后可能还会有更多裁员。更令人担忧的是，剩下的员工可能要面临工作量大幅增加的局面，因为公司要求他们用更少的资源完成更多的工作。 目前，随着甲骨文为投入AI而筹集的债务金额不断增长，再加上逐渐减少的现金流，公司面临着来自市场的巨大压力。今年以来，甲骨文（NYSE: ORCL）股价已跌超25%。 在科技巨头竞相举债构建AI基础设施的背景下，甲骨文成为了华尔街用于关注AI信用风险的核心参照坐标。根据数据服务平台ICE Data Services的统计，3月27日，甲骨文五年期信用违约互换（CDS）利差收涨7.2个基点至198.18个基点，创历史新高，超越2008年12月此前的历史峰值。 摩根大通的分析师在当天的研报中写道：“投资者不再那么关注甲骨文的营收增长势头，而是更关注公司何时才能将基础设施投资转化为持久的收益和现金流。” 在这样的背景下，甲骨文的大规模裁员选择似乎并不让人感到意外。美国券商TD Cowen预计，此次裁员将为公司释放80亿至100亿美元的现金流。 尽管年度裁员已经成为了科技巨头的惯例，但越来越多的公司开始将其归咎于AI，称AI能节省更多人力成本。甲骨文高管曾表示，随着AI工具的应用，公司可以用更少的员工完成更多工作。Meta CEO马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）和Twitter联合创始人之一杰克·多尔西（Jack Dorsey）等科技领袖也曾提出类似的观点。 科技公司裁员独立追踪机构Layoffs.fyi的数据显示，今年迄今为止，已有超过70家科技公司裁员约40480人。（文章来源：澎湃新闻）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCX":0.6,"ORCU":0.6,"ORCL":1.98,"ORCS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":548482681901496,"gmtCreate":1774930482403,"gmtModify":1774930960471,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"特朗普不傻的话还是赶快撤吧[捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"特朗普不傻的话还是赶快撤吧[捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"特朗普不傻的话还是赶快撤吧[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548482681901496","repostId":"1130634683","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130634683","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1774917952,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130634683?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-31 08:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：愿意在不重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的情况下结束战争","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130634683","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"逐步结束当前战事。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据华尔街日报报道，美国政府官员透露，<strong>美国总统特朗普已向其幕僚表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍基本处于关闭状态，他也愿意结束美国对伊朗的军事行动。</strong>此举可能会延长德黑兰对该水道的牢固控制，并将重新开放海峡这一复杂行动留待日后处理。</p><p>近日，特朗普及其幕僚评估认为，打通这一咽喉要道的任务将使冲突超出他设定的四至六周时间表。特朗普已决定，美国应实现削弱伊朗海军及导弹库存的主要目标，逐步结束当前战事，同时通过外交途径向伊朗施压，要求恢复自由贸易。官员们表示，若此举失败，华盛顿将施压欧洲及海湾地区的盟友牵头重新开放海峡。他们称，特朗普也可选择军事方案，但这并非其当前优先事项。</p><p>消息公布后，美股指数期货直线拉升，原油期货价格快速下跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3586dae988fbf58961f8390287dc4524\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"627\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e61418cac3f1ac23ef6ea1a97f4448ab\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普：愿意在不重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的情况下结束战争\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-31 08:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据华尔街日报报道，美国政府官员透露，<strong>美国总统特朗普已向其幕僚表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍基本处于关闭状态，他也愿意结束美国对伊朗的军事行动。</strong>此举可能会延长德黑兰对该水道的牢固控制，并将重新开放海峡这一复杂行动留待日后处理。</p><p>近日，特朗普及其幕僚评估认为，打通这一咽喉要道的任务将使冲突超出他设定的四至六周时间表。特朗普已决定，美国应实现削弱伊朗海军及导弹库存的主要目标，逐步结束当前战事，同时通过外交途径向伊朗施压，要求恢复自由贸易。官员们表示，若此举失败，华盛顿将施压欧洲及海湾地区的盟友牵头重新开放海峡。他们称，特朗普也可选择军事方案，但这并非其当前优先事项。</p><p>消息公布后，美股指数期货直线拉升，原油期货价格快速下跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3586dae988fbf58961f8390287dc4524\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"627\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e61418cac3f1ac23ef6ea1a97f4448ab\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e5f0667b28908ea81c4feafc83802afa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130634683","content_text":"据华尔街日报报道，美国政府官员透露，美国总统特朗普已向其幕僚表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍基本处于关闭状态，他也愿意结束美国对伊朗的军事行动。此举可能会延长德黑兰对该水道的牢固控制，并将重新开放海峡这一复杂行动留待日后处理。近日，特朗普及其幕僚评估认为，打通这一咽喉要道的任务将使冲突超出他设定的四至六周时间表。特朗普已决定，美国应实现削弱伊朗海军及导弹库存的主要目标，逐步结束当前战事，同时通过外交途径向伊朗施压，要求恢复自由贸易。官员们表示，若此举失败，华盛顿将施压欧洲及海湾地区的盟友牵头重新开放海峡。他们称，特朗普也可选择军事方案，但这并非其当前优先事项。消息公布后，美股指数期货直线拉升，原油期货价格快速下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539931561022432,"gmtCreate":1772837371766,"gmtModify":1772837373588,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 直奔160[龇牙] [龇牙] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 直奔160[龇牙] [龇牙] ","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 直奔160[龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539931561022432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539931565986896,"gmtCreate":1772837300860,"gmtModify":1772837303673,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"高盛没睡醒吧[捂脸] [捂脸] 睁开眼看看，霍尔木兹海峡一时半会儿不可能恢复正常","listText":"高盛没睡醒吧[捂脸] [捂脸] 睁开眼看看，霍尔木兹海峡一时半会儿不可能恢复正常","text":"高盛没睡醒吧[捂脸] [捂脸] 睁开眼看看，霍尔木兹海峡一时半会儿不可能恢复正常","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539931565986896","repostId":"2617934495","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2617934495","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1772677854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617934495?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-05 10:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617934495","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"中东局势动荡之际，高盛逆势唱多，其策略团队认为强劲的经济和企业基本面意味着近期的市场回调是买入机会，这背后更有对霍尔木兹海峡流通短期内恢复的乐观预期。高盛首席石油策略师Daan Struyven预计，霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来5天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的70%，并于四周后实现100%的全面常态化。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>全球市场动荡之际，高盛逆势看涨，认为近期的市场回调是买入机会，而非长期熊市的开端，这背后是该机构对霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>“四周恢复”流通的乐观预期。</p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及 ，由Peter Oppenheimer领导的高盛策略团队在周三一份报告中写道，尽管风险资产正面临来自中东战争以及AI颠覆性影响所引发担忧的“重大阻力”，但经济基本面的韧性以及企业盈利的强劲增长，意味着此次回调的深度和持续时间都将受到限制。</p><p>高盛对全球市场的乐观很大程度上建立在对能源供应链有望快速修复的预期之上。</p><p>高盛首席石油策略师Daan Struyven预计，<strong>受阻的霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来5天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的70%，并于四周后实现100%的全面常态化。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1761801129\">海峡流量恢复路径与仓储压力</h2><p>高盛对霍尔木兹海峡的流量恢复设定了具体的时间表。该行假设，海峡的石油出口将在额外5天内保持在当前水平（约为正常水平的15%），然后在接下来的两周内逐步恢复到70%，并在随后的两周内达到100%。</p><p>在出口受阻的背景下，中东产油国面临严峻的仓储压力。高盛估计，沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋，伊拉克，科威特，卡塔尔和伊朗的可用原油陆上储能共计约6亿桶，而在中断开始前闲置产能仅略超3亿桶。在完全关闭的情况下，这部分闲置产能仅能容纳约23天的“受困”原油。</p><p><strong>报告强调，即使海峡出口仅下降85%，产量的实质性削减也会在23天期限到来之前发生</strong>。当原油库存水平开始接近存储极限时，生产将被迫逐渐减少。特别是像伊拉克这样存储缓冲较小的国家，将在更早的阶段面临系统拥堵并率先减产。</p><h2 id=\"id_971813177\">供需预期推高二季度油价</h2><p>此前因“结构性供过于求”而对油价持悲观态度的多家投行，近期开始密集上调目标价。Daan Struyven 也在最新报告中表示，市场正在消化混合信号，海峡流量可能逐渐恢复带来了一定缓解，但减产证据的增加也重新引发了担忧。</p><p>基于上述判断，<strong>高盛将第二季度布伦特原油平均价格预测上调10美元至76美元/桶，并将WTI原油预测上调9美元至71美元/桶。</strong></p><p>报告指出，上调预测主要基于两个原因：首先，海峡出口受阻将导致经合组织（OECD）的商业库存大幅下降，并在3月份造成中东原油产量估计减少2亿桶；其次，挥之不去的地缘政治不确定性将继续支撑风险溢价。</p><h2 id=\"id_2443091846\">长期价格回归与双向风险</h2><p>尽管短期内油价受到强力支撑，高盛对远期油价的调整幅度相对有限。</p><p>该行将布伦特原油2026年第四季度的预测从60美元上调至66美元，并将2027年预测从65美元上调至70美元。高盛预计，随着中断影响消退，市场将重返供过于求的状态，布伦特现货价格将从目前的82美元降至2026年第四季度的66美元。这一回落反映了13美元风险溢价的逐渐消退，以及公允价值下降3美元。</p><p>高盛提示，当前价格预测的风险仍显著偏向上行。例如，如果霍尔木兹海峡的流量在额外5周内保持低位，布伦特油价可能触及100美元，以通过大规模的需求破坏来防止库存跌至临界水平。</p><p><strong>然而，下行风险同样不容忽视。</strong>市场分析指出，如果特朗普的护航计划或多方外交努力见效，促使海峡流量以快于预期的速度恢复，目前的风险溢价将迅速蒸发。一旦观察到船只恢复通行，布伦特油价可能面临12至15美元的大幅暴跌。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-05 10:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>全球市场动荡之际，高盛逆势看涨，认为近期的市场回调是买入机会，而非长期熊市的开端，这背后是该机构对霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>“四周恢复”流通的乐观预期。</p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及 ，由Peter Oppenheimer领导的高盛策略团队在周三一份报告中写道，尽管风险资产正面临来自中东战争以及AI颠覆性影响所引发担忧的“重大阻力”，但经济基本面的韧性以及企业盈利的强劲增长，意味着此次回调的深度和持续时间都将受到限制。</p><p>高盛对全球市场的乐观很大程度上建立在对能源供应链有望快速修复的预期之上。</p><p>高盛首席石油策略师Daan Struyven预计，<strong>受阻的霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来5天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的70%，并于四周后实现100%的全面常态化。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1761801129\">海峡流量恢复路径与仓储压力</h2><p>高盛对霍尔木兹海峡的流量恢复设定了具体的时间表。该行假设，海峡的石油出口将在额外5天内保持在当前水平（约为正常水平的15%），然后在接下来的两周内逐步恢复到70%，并在随后的两周内达到100%。</p><p>在出口受阻的背景下，中东产油国面临严峻的仓储压力。高盛估计，沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋，伊拉克，科威特，卡塔尔和伊朗的可用原油陆上储能共计约6亿桶，而在中断开始前闲置产能仅略超3亿桶。在完全关闭的情况下，这部分闲置产能仅能容纳约23天的“受困”原油。</p><p><strong>报告强调，即使海峡出口仅下降85%，产量的实质性削减也会在23天期限到来之前发生</strong>。当原油库存水平开始接近存储极限时，生产将被迫逐渐减少。特别是像伊拉克这样存储缓冲较小的国家，将在更早的阶段面临系统拥堵并率先减产。</p><h2 id=\"id_971813177\">供需预期推高二季度油价</h2><p>此前因“结构性供过于求”而对油价持悲观态度的多家投行，近期开始密集上调目标价。Daan Struyven 也在最新报告中表示，市场正在消化混合信号，海峡流量可能逐渐恢复带来了一定缓解，但减产证据的增加也重新引发了担忧。</p><p>基于上述判断，<strong>高盛将第二季度布伦特原油平均价格预测上调10美元至76美元/桶，并将WTI原油预测上调9美元至71美元/桶。</strong></p><p>报告指出，上调预测主要基于两个原因：首先，海峡出口受阻将导致经合组织（OECD）的商业库存大幅下降，并在3月份造成中东原油产量估计减少2亿桶；其次，挥之不去的地缘政治不确定性将继续支撑风险溢价。</p><h2 id=\"id_2443091846\">长期价格回归与双向风险</h2><p>尽管短期内油价受到强力支撑，高盛对远期油价的调整幅度相对有限。</p><p>该行将布伦特原油2026年第四季度的预测从60美元上调至66美元，并将2027年预测从65美元上调至70美元。高盛预计，随着中断影响消退，市场将重返供过于求的状态，布伦特现货价格将从目前的82美元降至2026年第四季度的66美元。这一回落反映了13美元风险溢价的逐渐消退，以及公允价值下降3美元。</p><p>高盛提示，当前价格预测的风险仍显著偏向上行。例如，如果霍尔木兹海峡的流量在额外5周内保持低位，布伦特油价可能触及100美元，以通过大规模的需求破坏来防止库存跌至临界水平。</p><p><strong>然而，下行风险同样不容忽视。</strong>市场分析指出，如果特朗普的护航计划或多方外交努力见效，促使海峡流量以快于预期的速度恢复，目前的风险溢价将迅速蒸发。一旦观察到船只恢复通行，布伦特油价可能面临12至15美元的大幅暴跌。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6674a050e6b7b1bee5ac723e7f27ea","relate_stocks":{"IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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\"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766764","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2617934495","content_text":"全球市场动荡之际，高盛逆势看涨，认为近期的市场回调是买入机会，而非长期熊市的开端，这背后是该机构对霍尔木兹海峡“四周恢复”流通的乐观预期。华尔街见闻此前提及 ，由Peter Oppenheimer领导的高盛策略团队在周三一份报告中写道，尽管风险资产正面临来自中东战争以及AI颠覆性影响所引发担忧的“重大阻力”，但经济基本面的韧性以及企业盈利的强劲增长，意味着此次回调的深度和持续时间都将受到限制。高盛对全球市场的乐观很大程度上建立在对能源供应链有望快速修复的预期之上。高盛首席石油策略师Daan Struyven预计，受阻的霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来5天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的70%，并于四周后实现100%的全面常态化。海峡流量恢复路径与仓储压力高盛对霍尔木兹海峡的流量恢复设定了具体的时间表。该行假设，海峡的石油出口将在额外5天内保持在当前水平（约为正常水平的15%），然后在接下来的两周内逐步恢复到70%，并在随后的两周内达到100%。在出口受阻的背景下，中东产油国面临严峻的仓储压力。高盛估计，沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋，伊拉克，科威特，卡塔尔和伊朗的可用原油陆上储能共计约6亿桶，而在中断开始前闲置产能仅略超3亿桶。在完全关闭的情况下，这部分闲置产能仅能容纳约23天的“受困”原油。报告强调，即使海峡出口仅下降85%，产量的实质性削减也会在23天期限到来之前发生。当原油库存水平开始接近存储极限时，生产将被迫逐渐减少。特别是像伊拉克这样存储缓冲较小的国家，将在更早的阶段面临系统拥堵并率先减产。供需预期推高二季度油价此前因“结构性供过于求”而对油价持悲观态度的多家投行，近期开始密集上调目标价。Daan Struyven 也在最新报告中表示，市场正在消化混合信号，海峡流量可能逐渐恢复带来了一定缓解，但减产证据的增加也重新引发了担忧。基于上述判断，高盛将第二季度布伦特原油平均价格预测上调10美元至76美元/桶，并将WTI原油预测上调9美元至71美元/桶。报告指出，上调预测主要基于两个原因：首先，海峡出口受阻将导致经合组织（OECD）的商业库存大幅下降，并在3月份造成中东原油产量估计减少2亿桶；其次，挥之不去的地缘政治不确定性将继续支撑风险溢价。长期价格回归与双向风险尽管短期内油价受到强力支撑，高盛对远期油价的调整幅度相对有限。该行将布伦特原油2026年第四季度的预测从60美元上调至66美元，并将2027年预测从65美元上调至70美元。高盛预计，随着中断影响消退，市场将重返供过于求的状态，布伦特现货价格将从目前的82美元降至2026年第四季度的66美元。这一回落反映了13美元风险溢价的逐渐消退，以及公允价值下降3美元。高盛提示，当前价格预测的风险仍显著偏向上行。例如，如果霍尔木兹海峡的流量在额外5周内保持低位，布伦特油价可能触及100美元，以通过大规模的需求破坏来防止库存跌至临界水平。然而，下行风险同样不容忽视。市场分析指出，如果特朗普的护航计划或多方外交努力见效，促使海峡流量以快于预期的速度恢复，目前的风险溢价将迅速蒸发。一旦观察到船只恢复通行，布伦特油价可能面临12至15美元的大幅暴跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"VIX":2,".DJI":2,"CLmain":2,"VIXmain":2,"VIXY":2,"QQQ":2,"SPY":2,"SQQQ":2,"TQQQ":2,"VXX":2,".SPX":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}