如果巴菲特来A股投资，他会选择哪些公司？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

如果巴菲特来A股投资，他会选择哪些公司？

苏宁金融研究院2021-10-06

可能很多人都有这样的困惑：A股有4000多家上市公司，光是看就看花眼了，有没有什么简单粗暴的办法，可以快速有效地锁定牛股呢？其实，类似的问题也曾有人向巴菲特请教过，“股神”的回答是：“如果非要我用一个指标来选股，我会选择用ROE。” 这个让巴菲特无比推崇的指标ROE，究竟是什么来路？我们不妨来做个简单讨论。众所周知，买股票本质上就是买公司，想要获得长期稳定的超额收益，前提是要选到优质的公司。...

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考拉的尾巴
·2021-10-06
他根本不会来
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Lei1349
·2021-10-06
难道美帝公司就没有财务造假？
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1
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Lei1349
·2021-10-06
难道美国公司就没有财务造假？
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1
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富甲1方
·2021-10-06
参考
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1
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涓流入海
·2021-10-06
他肯定选消费类大盘股
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1
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真的英雄
·2021-10-06
如果年轻的巴菲特来A股，他会亏的裤衩都不剩
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3
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多头队长
·2021-10-06
没有如果，人家不会来
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5
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收起
- 滚股怪:
  Woooooo
  2021-10-06
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- 多头队长:
  谢谢
  2021-10-09
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西王食品
·2021-10-06
他会买银行，铁路
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huanbaolux
·2021-10-06
确定是巴菲特的办法吗？
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悠悠游6666
·2021-10-06
茅台ROE没有那么高啊
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收起
- 铭发:
  🍏
  2022-04-28
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股神拉菲特吃腰子
·2021-10-06
茅台
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荳荳爸
·2021-10-06
他唯一的出路在大a就是埋伏然后他出来pump 然后在dump 参考昨天的cei
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长大成人
·2021-10-06
不用如果了，人家不会来
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1
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GraceSun
·2021-10-06
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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昨夜梦见你
·2021-10-06
共勉共勉
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华尔街街溜子
·2021-10-06
他如果不得已过来了，也只会选择融券做空[捂脸]
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4
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青龙吸金
·2021-10-06
他会说，算了，我还是回家钓鱼去吧...
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3
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老猪666
·2021-10-06
这边财务做假的太多了
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6
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- 真的英雄:
  这边哪个不做假？
  2021-10-06
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PeterTheGrt
·2021-10-06
Never will come, problem solved
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choose?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/691f6856e42ede0cfe4c7000e96a5b48","symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9},"content_text":"可能很多人都有这样的困惑：A股有4000多家上市公司，光是看就看花眼了，有没有什么简单粗暴的办法，可以快速有效地锁定牛股呢？\n其实，类似的问题也曾有人向巴菲特请教过，“股神”的回答是：“如果非要我用一个指标来选股，我会选择用ROE。”\n这个让巴菲特无比推崇的指标ROE，究竟是什么来路？我们不妨来做个简单讨论。\n众所周知，买股票本质上就是买公司，想要获得长期稳定的超额收益，前提是要选到优质的公司。判断一家公司是否优质，最基本的标准便是拥有长期稳定的盈利能力——它既是经营者经营业绩和管理效能的集中体现，又是投资者和债权人收取本息的资金来源，更是公司员工集体福利设施不断完善的重要保障。\n而衡量企业盈利能力如何，就要用到ROE指标了。\nROE（Return on Equity），即净资产收益率，是公司净利润除以净资产得到的百分比率，用以衡量公司运用自有资本的效率以及股东权益的收益水平，一般来说，ROE数值越大，表明投资带来的收益越高。\n沿着数学计算公式，我们可以将ROE拆解成三个部分\n\n公式当中，“净利润/销售收入”为销售净利润率，“销售收入/总资产”为资产周转率，“总资产/净资产”则为权益乘数，那么ROE计算公式还可以进一步改写为：\n\n这种拆解方法便是著名的杜邦分析法，它揭示了决定ROE数值大小的三个核心要素，具体而言：\n（1）销售净利润率\n该项直接决定了一家公司的盈利水平，故而也是影响ROE成色高低最为重要的影响因素。其中，销售净利润率的高低又取决于两个方面：一是毛利率，与公司成本结构、行业竞争程度以及品牌资源等有关；二是各项费用，包括销售费用、财务费用、管理费用等，分贝涉及到公司销售、财务状况、运营管理等各个条线的成本和效率。一般来说，毛利率越高，费用越低，销售净利润率数值越大。\n例如茅台和五粮液，二者在财务层面最大的差异就体现在销售净利润率上，五粮液的销售净利润率常年保持在35%上下，而茅台则高于50%。\n（2）资产周转率\n该项主要由存货周转率、应收账款周转率、固定资产周转率等组成，反映的是公司的运营能力。资产周转率指标的行业特征较为明显，一般来说，商业和快消行业的资产周转率会更高，而像房地产行业的资产周转率则较低。而在同一行业中，不同公司往往会因为产品特性以及销售策略不同，使得资产周转率表现不同。\n（3）权益乘数\n该项还可以表示为“权益乘数=1/（1-资产负债率）”，用以反映公司利用财务杠杆进行经营活动的程度，即资产负债情况。通常情况下，资产负债率越高，权益乘数越大，财务风险也就越高；反之，资产负债率低，权益乘数越小，所承担的风险也就越小。从这个角度看，公司虽然可以通过举债加杠杆来加速投资扩张，进而提高权益乘数和ROE，但同时也放大了经营风险，因此还需要具体问题具体分析。\n正因ROE全面涵盖了公司的盈利能力、运营能力和财务杠杆，所以巴菲特才如此推崇这一指标。\n可能有人会问了：既然ROE数值越大越好，究竟大到多少才能入得了巴菲特的眼呢？\n答案是至少要20%——而且光一年达到这个数字还不行，必须得是连续10年以上。只有这样，巴菲特才会认为这是一家能够在漫长的时间长河里经得起考验、能够持续稳定获得超额收益的好公司。就像巴菲特投资的可口可乐，ROE连续很多年都保持在20%~30%的高水平，这也为巴菲特带来了极为丰厚的投资回报。\n回过头来看我们的A股市场，在4000多家公司当中，ROE能够连续10年达到20%以上的并不多见。经过梳理，我发现只有21家公司能够满足这一标准；换句话说，如果让巴菲特来A股投资，那么有机会被“股神”相中的公司也就21家。而实践也一再证明，这些公司都是A股里不折不扣的大白马，给投资者都带来了不错的回报，具体名录如下：\n\n不难发现，这21家公司中绝大多数都属于消费和医药板块，能够在长达10年的时间跨度里始终保持高ROE水平，“穿越牛熊”的美誉着实实至名归。当然，这里只是客观展示，不构成任何投资建议。\n需要提醒的是，ROE虽然有助于帮助投资者分析公司基本面，但我们绝不能过度迷信这一指标，只因公司基本面并非左右股价的唯一要素。因为股价是公司基本面、市场情绪和资金共同作用的结果。\n就像今年以来，市场热度明显集中在新能源、半导体、芯片等带有科技属性的板块上，大量资金也随着市场情绪纷纷涌入这些高成长赛道上来。相比之下，此前一直火热的消费、医药板块却表现不佳，而上表中的一些公司ROE数值也都在今年跌破了20%。若是只依靠ROE来选股，那么结果恐怕很难令人满意。\n我们必须清楚的是，“投资是一生的修行”，每个投资者都需要经过不断的学习、总结与实践，才能慢慢构建出真正适合自己的选股原则，而不是盲目跟风，人云亦云。\n就像巴菲特所言：\n\n 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