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纳斯达克(.IXIC)
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NickShen
·
04-17 21:39
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
典型的panic buying筑顶。
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 典型的panic buying筑顶。
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maxitong:
請問築頂是什麼金融意思?
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零点博弈资本
·
04-17 17:47
$NFLX 20260717 140.0 CALL$
还引人注目不?买入价0.94,开盘只剩0.25左右,爽不爽?
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$NFLX 20260717 140.0 CALL$ 还引人注目不?买入价0.94,开盘只剩0.25左右,爽不爽? $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
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Geilbert:
盘前只做参考,不要否定自己,峰回路转的情况时有发生,要么开平仓不看了,如果想看,建议可以等等看情况挂单,高于0.25就是赚的
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主神级交易员鄧文
·
04-17 15:06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
和平谈判、以美国国内发展为主题,这条路径目前概率最大、 那么路径内,看黄金拉多高(国债规模保持不变或增长缓慢的情况下),黄金拉多高、决定了标普、纳指在年底涨多高,以年内拉到8000刀算,标普在年底要拉到9000点左右、纳指在38000点左右,AI产业的半导体、AI软件、AI计算:英伟达拉到350,特斯拉拉到800左右,微软由于走势慢年底妥妥的与前高平齐,甲骨文650左右,英特尔年底就可以到200,要是年底黄金拉到10000刀,以上的年底价格全部上调25%,
$标普500(.SPX)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 和平谈判、以美国国内发展为主题,这条路径目前概率最大、 那么路径内,看黄金拉多高(国债规模保持不变或增长缓慢的情况下),黄金拉多高...
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Sacred Rabbit:
想法是好的[捂脸] 太敢想了
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Trendy_3284
·
04-17 22:12
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
量化控盘依然看空,横盘震荡概率大,扩张大三角走出整理最后选择方向,(美股期指目前仍是升水,A股贴水好久了,两市场规则玩法不一样)待美股高估泡沫形成市场共识,目前市场类似碟中谍中的“智体”控盘,短线可博弈,谨慎仍然第一,A股中际旭创,新易盛,天孚通信等等成交额几乎天天霸榜已经持续了2年了,A股指数规则之下这些庄家已经控制了指数,并且与政策配合的天衣无缝。美股量化占比差不多80%了,A股少说也得60%以上了。。。。。。
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 量化控盘依然看空,横盘震荡概率大,扩张大三角走出整理最后选择方向,(美股期指目前仍是升水,A股贴水好久了,两市场规则玩法不一样...
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西毒欧阳锋先生
·
04-17 22:55
$COIN 20260417 210.0 CALL$
可
$甲骨文(ORCL)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
$COIN 20260417 210.0 CALL$ 可$甲骨文(ORCL)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ $Coinb...
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主神级交易员鄧文
·
04-17 15:45
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
万斯和其代表的铁锈区是越战路径里面的最大受害者、也是全球化1.0时代最大的失意群体,而老特这种没魄力的渣男特征决定了其不可能走越战路径,这意味着以这两人为主的供和挡势力不可能走越战路径;而珉主挡这边,像复制路径、可惜没有这样的人带头,加州州长pass、当时做中间人的污点就是尼可松2.0,哈哈姐已经失败一次、给机会不中用啊,一眼看去:没人;
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$英特尔(INTC)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 万斯和其代表的铁锈区是越战路径里面的最大受害者、也是全球化1.0时代最大的失意群体,而老特这种没魄力的渣男特征决定了其不可能走越战...
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重生之我是鲍威尔
·
04-16 20:03
别指望天天有这种神仙行情,据我老油条所知,一年里这种单向波动的日子寥寥无几
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
别指望天天有这种神仙行情,据我老油条所知,一年里这种单向波动的日子寥寥无几 $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
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快乐语:
一年?好多年都不会出现一次这样的连续暴涨
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亏麻了123
·
04-16 21:59
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
日本马上要加息了,接着闹得欢啊,下个月给你来波大的
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 日本马上要加息了,接着闹得欢啊,下个月给你来波大的
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ThomasWong
·
04-15 22:25
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
还是喜欢看到一群空军无能狂怒的样子哈哈,放眼历史做空美股别说一般人了,大佬基本坟头草都半米高了,一群213还真把自己当根葱了
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 还是喜欢看到一群空军无能狂怒的样子哈哈,放眼历史做空美股别说一般人了,大佬基本坟头草都半米高了,一群213还真把自己当根葱了
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Trendy_3284:
哪个大佬目前又长期看好美股呢?何况美股量化交易占比70%,都是短线客,墙头草,区间交易而已
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Mediator
·
04-16 21:52
共和党参议员Thom Tillis誓言阻止沃什提名进入参议院全体投票,直至司法部终止对鲍威尔的调查。
5月15日倒计时!鲍威尔拒不提前“交权”,特朗普威胁“原地开除”,美联储权力交替陷入法律泥潭
在继任者沃什确认受阻之际,特朗普威胁解雇任期届满后的鲍威尔,而鲍威尔坚持将以“临时主席”身份留任,双方正面冲突升级。参议员Tillis以司法部调查为筹码阻击沃什提名,使交接时间表高度不确定。若白宫强行推动人事更替,或引发法律大战并冲击美联储独立性,成为当前市场最被低估的风险变量。
5月15日倒计时!鲍威尔拒不提前“交权”,特朗普威胁“原地开除”,美联储权力交替陷入法律泥潭
共和党参议员Thom Tillis誓言阻止沃什提名进入参议院全体投票,直至司法部终止对鲍威尔的调查。
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20:43","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"5月15日倒计时!鲍威尔拒不提前“交权”,特朗普威胁“原地开除”,美联储权力交替陷入法律泥潭","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2627297699","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在继任者沃什确认受阻之际,特朗普威胁解雇任期届满后的鲍威尔,而鲍威尔坚持将以“临时主席”身份留任,双方正面冲突升级。参议员Tillis以司法部调查为筹码阻击沃什提名,使交接时间表高度不确定。若白宫强行推动人事更替,或引发法律大战并冲击美联储独立性,成为当前市场最被低估的风险变量。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储主席职位交接正面临严峻考验。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着现任主席鲍威尔任期5月15日届满,特朗普提名的继任者凯文·沃什能否及时获得参议院确认存在重大变数,一场围绕美联储领导权的法律与政治博弈正在成形。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普本周明确表态,若鲍威尔在任期届满后仍留任,将予以解雇。鲍威尔则坚持认为,依据法律规定,在继任者获得确认之前,他将以"临时主席"身份继续履职。两人立场针锋相对,令全球最重要央行的领导权归属陷入前所未有的不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这场对峙的直接导火索,是<strong>共和党参议员Thom Tillis誓言阻止沃什提名进入参议院全体投票,直至司法部终止对鲍威尔的调查。</strong>分析人士警告,若白宫选择以法律手段强行推进权力交接,可能动摇市场对美联储独立性的信心。</p><h2 id=\"id_4217130152\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Tillis阻击,沃什主席之路荆棘丛生</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什定于下周二出席参议院银行委员会听证,但其能否在5月15日前完成确认程序,疑云密布。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>阻力的核心来自共和党参议员Tillis。</strong>他明确表示,将封堵沃什提名进入参议院全体投票,除非司法部撤销对鲍威尔的调查——该调查聚焦于鲍威尔是否就美联储总部约25亿美元翻修工程向国会作出不实陈述。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">参议院银行委员会主席、共和党参议员Tim Scott表示,他有信心司法部将在"数周内"结束调查,但目前尚无任何迹象表明调查即将终止。特朗普本人亦明确表示希望调查继续推进,即便本月一名联邦法官已裁定政府的传票不过是向鲍威尔施压、迫使其降息的借口。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华盛顿特区联邦检察官Jeanine Pirro已承诺就该裁定提起上诉,本周二还有两名政府检察官和一名调查员前往美联储翻修工地要求参观,但遭到拒绝。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从程序时间线看,形势同样严峻。据路透社,参议院历史上仅有一次在听证到确认之间不足一个月内完成提名程序,且彼时仅是普通美联储理事,而非美联储主席这一全球最重要央行的领导职位。</p><h2 id=\"id_2006725685\" style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔是否有权留任?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若沃什未能在5月15日前获得确认,美联储领导权归属将进入法律灰色地带。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔的立场明确。他此前表示:"如果我的继任者在我主席任期届满前未获确认,我将以临时主席身份继续履职,这是法律的规定,也是此前多次出现过的先例,包括涉及我本人的情况。"<strong>《联邦储备法》规定,理事会成员"应继续任职直至继任者获得任命",为鲍威尔留任提供了明确的法律依据。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,特朗普盟友援引另一套法律逻辑。<strong>保守派人士近期流传一份卡特政府时期的备忘录,认为总统有权在提名人选待确认期间指定一名现任理事担任代理主席。</strong>特朗普的部分盟友认为,他有权从其提名的理事中——如Stephen Miran、Michelle Bowman或Christopher Waller——指定一人代行主席职责。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多数法律学者对此持保留态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">哥伦比亚大学法学教授Lev Menand表示,<strong>鲍威尔有权留任,总统另行指定他人"没有法律依据",并指出卡特政府的分析"论证极为薄弱"。</strong>此外,1998年颁布的《联邦职位空缺改革法》明确禁止总统在多成员委员会机构中指定代理官员。</p><h2 id=\"id_3537068400\" style=\"text-align: left;\">解雇威胁——前所未有的宪政风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普的解雇威胁若付诸实施,将开创历史先例,并几乎必然引发法律挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普本周明确表示,若鲍威尔不在任期届满后主动离开,"那我就不得不解雇他"。这一表态与他此前多次公开批评鲍威尔的言论一脉相承——他曾称鲍威尔为"蠢货"和"倔驴",指责其拒绝降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此类举动将是史无前例的。特朗普去年夏天试图解雇美联储理事Lisa Cook的尝试已遭法律挑战,该案目前仍在美国最高法院审理,Cook至今仍在任。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">预测机构LH Meyer分析师Derek Tang指出,<strong>若白宫选择"核选项",通过诉讼和挑战强行推进,可能动摇市场对美联储的信心</strong>,尽管他补充称,目前市场对这一潜在风险似乎尚未表现出明显担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_2209697392\" style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔去留,调查是关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便沃什最终获得确认,鲍威尔是否会提前离开理事会席位,同样存在变数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔的理事席位任期延续至2028年1月,远超其主席任期。他此前倾向于遵循多数前任主席的惯例,在新主席就任后主动辞去理事职务。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,已解封的法律文件显示,鲍威尔认为在调查仍处于活跃状态时辞职,将危及美联储独立制定利率政策的能力。他上月明确表示,在调查"彻底结束、透明且有定论"之前,他不会离开理事会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>分析人士指出,鲍威尔留任理事会的可能性上升,反而可能制约沃什重塑美联储的空间。</strong>Tang表示,"人们将不仅从经济层面,也从道义层面审视鲍威尔的角色。"</p><h2 id=\"id_4117221764\" style=\"text-align: left;\">接盘者面临棘手局面</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便权力交接顺利完成,新主席面临的政策环境同样充满挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Evercore ISI副主席Krishna Guha警告,"在能源价格冲击时期对央行施加政治压力并非没有风险,即便最终无果而终。这在边际上增加了通胀预期上升的风险,因为市场可能担忧美联储无法采取必要措施将通胀在中期内回归目标。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">LH Meyer的Tang则提出了一个更为现实的问题:"未来几个月,通胀现实将非常严峻。你真的希望自己的人坐在那个位置上,成为维持高利率的替罪羊吗?"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">白宫发言人Kush Desai表示,"白宫仍专注于与参议院合作,尽快确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。"<strong>但在Tillis的阻击、司法部调查的悬而未决以及特朗普的强硬表态之间,这一目标的实现路径正变得愈发曲折。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5月15日倒计时!鲍威尔拒不提前“交权”,特朗普威胁“原地开除”,美联储权力交替陷入法律泥潭</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5月15日倒计时!鲍威尔拒不提前“交权”,特朗普威胁“原地开除”,美联储权力交替陷入法律泥潭\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-16 20:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储主席职位交接正面临严峻考验。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着现任主席鲍威尔任期5月15日届满,特朗普提名的继任者凯文·沃什能否及时获得参议院确认存在重大变数,一场围绕美联储领导权的法律与政治博弈正在成形。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普本周明确表态,若鲍威尔在任期届满后仍留任,将予以解雇。鲍威尔则坚持认为,依据法律规定,在继任者获得确认之前,他将以"临时主席"身份继续履职。两人立场针锋相对,令全球最重要央行的领导权归属陷入前所未有的不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这场对峙的直接导火索,是<strong>共和党参议员Thom Tillis誓言阻止沃什提名进入参议院全体投票,直至司法部终止对鲍威尔的调查。</strong>分析人士警告,若白宫选择以法律手段强行推进权力交接,可能动摇市场对美联储独立性的信心。</p><h2 id=\"id_4217130152\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Tillis阻击,沃什主席之路荆棘丛生</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什定于下周二出席参议院银行委员会听证,但其能否在5月15日前完成确认程序,疑云密布。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>阻力的核心来自共和党参议员Tillis。</strong>他明确表示,将封堵沃什提名进入参议院全体投票,除非司法部撤销对鲍威尔的调查——该调查聚焦于鲍威尔是否就美联储总部约25亿美元翻修工程向国会作出不实陈述。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">参议院银行委员会主席、共和党参议员Tim Scott表示,他有信心司法部将在"数周内"结束调查,但目前尚无任何迹象表明调查即将终止。特朗普本人亦明确表示希望调查继续推进,即便本月一名联邦法官已裁定政府的传票不过是向鲍威尔施压、迫使其降息的借口。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华盛顿特区联邦检察官Jeanine Pirro已承诺就该裁定提起上诉,本周二还有两名政府检察官和一名调查员前往美联储翻修工地要求参观,但遭到拒绝。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从程序时间线看,形势同样严峻。据路透社,参议院历史上仅有一次在听证到确认之间不足一个月内完成提名程序,且彼时仅是普通美联储理事,而非美联储主席这一全球最重要央行的领导职位。</p><h2 id=\"id_2006725685\" style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔是否有权留任?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若沃什未能在5月15日前获得确认,美联储领导权归属将进入法律灰色地带。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔的立场明确。他此前表示:"如果我的继任者在我主席任期届满前未获确认,我将以临时主席身份继续履职,这是法律的规定,也是此前多次出现过的先例,包括涉及我本人的情况。"<strong>《联邦储备法》规定,理事会成员"应继续任职直至继任者获得任命",为鲍威尔留任提供了明确的法律依据。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,特朗普盟友援引另一套法律逻辑。<strong>保守派人士近期流传一份卡特政府时期的备忘录,认为总统有权在提名人选待确认期间指定一名现任理事担任代理主席。</strong>特朗普的部分盟友认为,他有权从其提名的理事中——如Stephen Miran、Michelle Bowman或Christopher Waller——指定一人代行主席职责。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多数法律学者对此持保留态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">哥伦比亚大学法学教授Lev Menand表示,<strong>鲍威尔有权留任,总统另行指定他人"没有法律依据",并指出卡特政府的分析"论证极为薄弱"。</strong>此外,1998年颁布的《联邦职位空缺改革法》明确禁止总统在多成员委员会机构中指定代理官员。</p><h2 id=\"id_3537068400\" style=\"text-align: left;\">解雇威胁——前所未有的宪政风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普的解雇威胁若付诸实施,将开创历史先例,并几乎必然引发法律挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普本周明确表示,若鲍威尔不在任期届满后主动离开,"那我就不得不解雇他"。这一表态与他此前多次公开批评鲍威尔的言论一脉相承——他曾称鲍威尔为"蠢货"和"倔驴",指责其拒绝降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此类举动将是史无前例的。特朗普去年夏天试图解雇美联储理事Lisa Cook的尝试已遭法律挑战,该案目前仍在美国最高法院审理,Cook至今仍在任。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">预测机构LH Meyer分析师Derek Tang指出,<strong>若白宫选择"核选项",通过诉讼和挑战强行推进,可能动摇市场对美联储的信心</strong>,尽管他补充称,目前市场对这一潜在风险似乎尚未表现出明显担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_2209697392\" style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔去留,调查是关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便沃什最终获得确认,鲍威尔是否会提前离开理事会席位,同样存在变数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔的理事席位任期延续至2028年1月,远超其主席任期。他此前倾向于遵循多数前任主席的惯例,在新主席就任后主动辞去理事职务。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,已解封的法律文件显示,鲍威尔认为在调查仍处于活跃状态时辞职,将危及美联储独立制定利率政策的能力。他上月明确表示,在调查"彻底结束、透明且有定论"之前,他不会离开理事会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>分析人士指出,鲍威尔留任理事会的可能性上升,反而可能制约沃什重塑美联储的空间。</strong>Tang表示,"人们将不仅从经济层面,也从道义层面审视鲍威尔的角色。"</p><h2 id=\"id_4117221764\" style=\"text-align: left;\">接盘者面临棘手局面</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便权力交接顺利完成,新主席面临的政策环境同样充满挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Evercore ISI副主席Krishna Guha警告,"在能源价格冲击时期对央行施加政治压力并非没有风险,即便最终无果而终。这在边际上增加了通胀预期上升的风险,因为市场可能担忧美联储无法采取必要措施将通胀在中期内回归目标。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">LH Meyer的Tang则提出了一个更为现实的问题:"未来几个月,通胀现实将非常严峻。你真的希望自己的人坐在那个位置上,成为维持高利率的替罪羊吗?"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">白宫发言人Kush Desai表示,"白宫仍专注于与参议院合作,尽快确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。"<strong>但在Tillis的阻击、司法部调查的悬而未决以及特朗普的强硬表态之间,这一目标的实现路径正变得愈发曲折。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3314c0a7020d57c982b45ae18fa7d921","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770149","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2627297699","content_text":"美联储主席职位交接正面临严峻考验。随着现任主席鲍威尔任期5月15日届满,特朗普提名的继任者凯文·沃什能否及时获得参议院确认存在重大变数,一场围绕美联储领导权的法律与政治博弈正在成形。特朗普本周明确表态,若鲍威尔在任期届满后仍留任,将予以解雇。鲍威尔则坚持认为,依据法律规定,在继任者获得确认之前,他将以\"临时主席\"身份继续履职。两人立场针锋相对,令全球最重要央行的领导权归属陷入前所未有的不确定性。这场对峙的直接导火索,是共和党参议员Thom Tillis誓言阻止沃什提名进入参议院全体投票,直至司法部终止对鲍威尔的调查。分析人士警告,若白宫选择以法律手段强行推进权力交接,可能动摇市场对美联储独立性的信心。Tillis阻击,沃什主席之路荆棘丛生沃什定于下周二出席参议院银行委员会听证,但其能否在5月15日前完成确认程序,疑云密布。阻力的核心来自共和党参议员Tillis。他明确表示,将封堵沃什提名进入参议院全体投票,除非司法部撤销对鲍威尔的调查——该调查聚焦于鲍威尔是否就美联储总部约25亿美元翻修工程向国会作出不实陈述。参议院银行委员会主席、共和党参议员Tim Scott表示,他有信心司法部将在\"数周内\"结束调查,但目前尚无任何迹象表明调查即将终止。特朗普本人亦明确表示希望调查继续推进,即便本月一名联邦法官已裁定政府的传票不过是向鲍威尔施压、迫使其降息的借口。华盛顿特区联邦检察官Jeanine Pirro已承诺就该裁定提起上诉,本周二还有两名政府检察官和一名调查员前往美联储翻修工地要求参观,但遭到拒绝。从程序时间线看,形势同样严峻。据路透社,参议院历史上仅有一次在听证到确认之间不足一个月内完成提名程序,且彼时仅是普通美联储理事,而非美联储主席这一全球最重要央行的领导职位。鲍威尔是否有权留任?若沃什未能在5月15日前获得确认,美联储领导权归属将进入法律灰色地带。鲍威尔的立场明确。他此前表示:\"如果我的继任者在我主席任期届满前未获确认,我将以临时主席身份继续履职,这是法律的规定,也是此前多次出现过的先例,包括涉及我本人的情况。\"《联邦储备法》规定,理事会成员\"应继续任职直至继任者获得任命\",为鲍威尔留任提供了明确的法律依据。然而,特朗普盟友援引另一套法律逻辑。保守派人士近期流传一份卡特政府时期的备忘录,认为总统有权在提名人选待确认期间指定一名现任理事担任代理主席。特朗普的部分盟友认为,他有权从其提名的理事中——如Stephen Miran、Michelle Bowman或Christopher Waller——指定一人代行主席职责。多数法律学者对此持保留态度。哥伦比亚大学法学教授Lev Menand表示,鲍威尔有权留任,总统另行指定他人\"没有法律依据\",并指出卡特政府的分析\"论证极为薄弱\"。此外,1998年颁布的《联邦职位空缺改革法》明确禁止总统在多成员委员会机构中指定代理官员。解雇威胁——前所未有的宪政风险特朗普的解雇威胁若付诸实施,将开创历史先例,并几乎必然引发法律挑战。特朗普本周明确表示,若鲍威尔不在任期届满后主动离开,\"那我就不得不解雇他\"。这一表态与他此前多次公开批评鲍威尔的言论一脉相承——他曾称鲍威尔为\"蠢货\"和\"倔驴\",指责其拒绝降息。此类举动将是史无前例的。特朗普去年夏天试图解雇美联储理事Lisa Cook的尝试已遭法律挑战,该案目前仍在美国最高法院审理,Cook至今仍在任。预测机构LH Meyer分析师Derek Tang指出,若白宫选择\"核选项\",通过诉讼和挑战强行推进,可能动摇市场对美联储的信心,尽管他补充称,目前市场对这一潜在风险似乎尚未表现出明显担忧。鲍威尔去留,调查是关键变量即便沃什最终获得确认,鲍威尔是否会提前离开理事会席位,同样存在变数。鲍威尔的理事席位任期延续至2028年1月,远超其主席任期。他此前倾向于遵循多数前任主席的惯例,在新主席就任后主动辞去理事职务。然而,已解封的法律文件显示,鲍威尔认为在调查仍处于活跃状态时辞职,将危及美联储独立制定利率政策的能力。他上月明确表示,在调查\"彻底结束、透明且有定论\"之前,他不会离开理事会。分析人士指出,鲍威尔留任理事会的可能性上升,反而可能制约沃什重塑美联储的空间。Tang表示,\"人们将不仅从经济层面,也从道义层面审视鲍威尔的角色。\"接盘者面临棘手局面即便权力交接顺利完成,新主席面临的政策环境同样充满挑战。Evercore ISI副主席Krishna Guha警告,\"在能源价格冲击时期对央行施加政治压力并非没有风险,即便最终无果而终。这在边际上增加了通胀预期上升的风险,因为市场可能担忧美联储无法采取必要措施将通胀在中期内回归目标。\"LH Meyer的Tang则提出了一个更为现实的问题:\"未来几个月,通胀现实将非常严峻。你真的希望自己的人坐在那个位置上,成为维持高利率的替罪羊吗?\"白宫发言人Kush Desai表示,\"白宫仍专注于与参议院合作,尽快确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。\"但在Tillis的阻击、司法部调查的悬而未决以及特朗普的强硬表态之间,这一目标的实现路径正变得愈发曲折。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VXX":2,"VIX":2,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"TQQQ":2,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"VIXY":2,"ESmain":2,"VIXmain":2,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,".SPX":2,"SQQQ":2,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"YMmain":2,".DJI":2,"QQQ":2,".IXIC":2,"NQmain":2,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5}},"shareLink":"https://laohu8.com/post/554241860142640","orderFlag":false,"starInvestorRankings":[],"featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":86,"displayRows":4,"foldSize":0,"authorId":"3498680662745699"}],"position":0}],"size":10},"newsData":null,"noticeData":{"listData":[],"currentPage":1,"bottom":true},"companyData":{"profile":{"compareEarnings":[{"period":"1week","weight":0.032},{"period":"1month","weight":0.046},{"period":"3month","weight":0.0145},{"period":"6month","weight":0.0561},{"period":"1year","weight":0.3348},{"period":"ytd","weight":0.0289}],"compareStock":{"symbol":"SPY","name":"标普500ETF"},"yearOnYearQuotes":[{"month":1,"riseRate":0.672727,"avgChangeRate":0.024737},{"month":2,"riseRate":0.509091,"avgChangeRate":0.004026},{"month":3,"riseRate":0.625,"avgChangeRate":0.005627},{"month":4,"riseRate":0.660714,"avgChangeRate":0.01512},{"month":5,"riseRate":0.618182,"avgChangeRate":0.012509},{"month":6,"riseRate":0.581818,"avgChangeRate":0.010946},{"month":7,"riseRate":0.581818,"avgChangeRate":0.00927},{"month":8,"riseRate":0.563636,"avgChangeRate":0.003404},{"month":9,"riseRate":0.527273,"avgChangeRate":-0.007633},{"month":10,"riseRate":0.545455,"avgChangeRate":0.007731},{"month":11,"riseRate":0.709091,"avgChangeRate":0.020556},{"month":12,"riseRate":0.6,"avgChangeRate":0.014935}],"exchange":"NASDAQ","name":"纳斯达克","nameEN":"NASDAQ"},"aProfile":null}}}