Is there still a big market for liquor?
Two days ago, the liquor sector fell sharply because of the news of consumption tax, which caused heated discussion in the market
The plate has rebounded in the past two days
The view on consumption tax was talked by many people in the market yesterday, so MIK will not repeat it
Today, let's talk. As the king of A shares in the past, will there be a big market behind liquor?
Due to the high base last year and the weak consumption data this year,
Therefore, the overall performance of the third quarterly report of the consumer section is not ideal
The stock price of the sector has also performed poorly this year, and there is no beta market in the industry
MIK mentioned in the circle before that when the economy is depressed and the mass consumption desire is not strong, the main thing worthy of our attention in consumption is high-end consumption
Because no matter the economic depression or the influence of consumption tax, people who have the ability to carry out high-end consumption are insensitive to price, and what they consume is a kind of arrangement and feeling
As the king in the consumer section, liquor, especially high-end liquor, is the representative of A-share high-end consumption
Liquor is called yyds because in the past few years, there has been a big wave of liquor market every year
So will there be a big market for liquor this year or another year?
Let's go back to the essence of investment
In the long run, when the stock price rises, it mainly earns two kinds of money: the money for performance growth and the money for valuation improvement
Let's look at performance:
According to market estimates, this year's liquor is one of the few industries in the consumer sector whose performance can maintain double-digit growth
Therefore, in terms of performance, liquor is no problem
Let's look at the valuation again:
In the past, the big market of liquor was based on Davis double-click of performance growth and valuation improvement
For example, the valuation of liquor in 19 years was generally 25 times pe, and it rose to 40 times pe at the end of 19 years. In 2021, it rose to a crazy state corresponding to 50 times pe in the following year
So where is the current valuation of liquor?
It can be seen that the current valuation of liquor is generally above 35pe in 22 years and above 30pe in 23 years
Current valuations are neither cheap nor high
MIK believes that if you want to obtain excess returns in liquor, you should not only try to buy it cheaply, but also find out individual stocks with their own α market
The current industry environment and overall valuation do not have the basis for the whole sector to rise together as last year
As for whether the current liquor stocks have the cost performance to buy and which ones have more investment value, it is a matter of opinion. I believe everyone has their own judgment [Smart]
PS: The above are personal opinions, which are for reference only and do not constitute investment suggestions. Please make your own decisions on investment
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Disclaimer: The above content represents only the personal views of the poster and does not constitute investment advice on this platform.