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Risk Disclaimer: This article is for market commentary purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Leveraging its CUDA ecosystem and first-mover advantage in computing power, Nvidia has long captured over 70% of global revenue from AI accelerator chips. As the biggest beneficiary amid the global AI computing expansion cycle, it has reached a market cap of $5 trillion and forged the core legend of this AI bull market. Yet the pendulum of cycles always reverts to the mean. The confluence of industry sentiment, competitive landscape and technical patterns now signals that the era of steep premium valuation for its stock may be drawing to a close.

On the industry cycle front, global AI capital expenditure is shifting from rapid expansion toward prudent validation. After massive purchases by cloud vendors, computing utilization rates and commercial returns of AI models have fallen short of earlier bullish expectations, while growth in new orders is decelerating at the margin. On the supply side, custom ASICs developed by Google and Amazon are seeing robust shipments, and AMD is catching up rapidly. In the Chinese market, domestic chips are advancing quickly. Nvidia’s shipment share of AI chips for data centers in China has declined markedly, with market share continuously eroded by local players and its moat in this market narrowing. The golden phase of high gross margins and explosive growth has passed, and a slowdown in earnings growth is highly likely going forward.

From a technical perspective, bearish signals have emerged across monthly, weekly and daily charts in a triple resonance. At the daily level, investors keep taking profits, positive catalysts have lost their impact, and the pattern of “buy the rumor, sell the news” on earnings reports keeps recurring. Weekly upward momentum is fading and the uptrend structure is weakening. After prolonged overbought conditions on the monthly timeframe, valuations have deviated far from their historical averages. This synchronized weakening across three timeframes represents a classic topping reversal signal. In capital markets, excess returns are harvested when expectation gaps are the widest. Once the market prices AI computing dividends as perpetual growth, valuation premiums become stretched.

Based on mean reversion logic, Nvidia’s valuation, earnings and market valuation have stood at extreme historical percentiles over the past two years. Over the next more than twelve months, the market will gradually dial back assumptions of perpetual growth to absorb inflated valuations. This commentary puts forward an objective outlook: the stock faces downside risk of more than 30% as it reverts toward its long-term fair value center. This does not mean a collapse of business fundamentals; it is a normal correction after the super-cycle boom fades.

The legend will not crumble overnight, yet peaks tend to form when market sentiment hits its most euphoric. Nvidia remains the leader in the computing power track and retains competitive moats. Still, the $5 trillion valuation embeds market pricing for endless long-term growth. Cycles rise and fall. As growth momentum cools, competition intensifies and bearish technical signals converge, the chapter of outsized bull market gains for Nvidia is entering its final act.

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$