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鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复
08-10

哈哈哈就

单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等

SK海力士上周股价重挫15%，市场恐慌情绪蔓延——英伟达削减HBM采购、股东回报悬而未决、540亿韩元天量资本支出接连冲击投资者信心。但摩根大通逐一拆解传言：五折定价系误读、资本支出属既定计划、股东回报时间表已明显提前。分析师直言"最坏时刻已过"，目标价较现价仍有94%上行空间。

单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等

# 华尔街见闻

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Kwon在报告中逐一回应上述疑虑，<strong>认为“最坏的时刻已经过去”，并预计股价情绪将从中期维度逐步改善</strong>，并维持对SK海力士的增持评级，目标价为275万韩元（对应2027年6月），较上周收盘价仍有近94%的上行空间。</p>\n<p>报告指出，未来一至两个月内的三大关键催化剂包括：股东回报计划更新（三季度末前）、HBM合同价格更新（三季度末前），以及美国子公司上市计划更新（一个月内）。</p>\n<h2>股东回报：时间表提前，三季度末前披露</h2>\n<p>围绕股东回报的不确定性是上周股价下跌的核心诱因之一。SK海力士已通过监管文件披露，正积极评估额外股东回报措施以提升股东价值，并预计在三季度末前完成并公布相关方案。</p>\n<p>这一时间表较管理层此前在二季度业绩说明会上给出的&#34;年底前&#34;表态明显提前。摩根大通预计，<strong>SK海力士未来三年将产生空前规模的自由现金流，估算累计自由现金流超过800万亿韩元。</strong>报告指出，投资者普遍期待SK海力士作出比日本及美国存储器同行更大力度的股东回报承诺，原因在于该公司过去12个月的盈利能力（包括Kioxia股权出售收益）显著高于同行。一旦推出渐进式股东回报政策，市场反应将较为积极。</p>\n<h2>HBM定价：五折传言失实，摩根大通给出保守预测</h2>\n<p>上周市场流传SK海力士将以竞争对手五折价格为2027年HBM4产品定价，引发投资者对公司盈利能力的广泛担忧。报告明确表示，上述报道&#34;不准确&#34;。</p>\n<p>报告采用相对保守的定价假设——低于2026年预估基础上40%的同比涨幅——并给出三点支撑逻辑：其一，存储器供应商有动力优先为DDR5、LPDDR5及NAND等长期协议产品争取更高溢价，这些产品的利润率显著高于HBM；其二，英伟达是SK海力士最大客户，双方存在多项产品合作，公司可从多年采购的视角与客户谈判；<strong>其三，HBM价格每年均可重新议定，后续年份仍有调价空间</strong>——管理层的表态暗示HBM将面临多年短缺，短期合同定价未必是首要考量，若公司优先锁定三至五年的长期协议量，则短期价格让步具有战略合理性。报告同时指出，若SK海力士最终实现高于预期的HBM均价，将构成每股盈利的上行风险。</p>\n<h2>540亿韩元资本支出：规模庞大，但属既定计划</h2>\n<p>SK海力士宣布540亿韩元（约381亿美元）的大规模资本支出计划，拟在韩国新建两座存储芯片工厂，消息引发市场对财务压力的担忧。该计划规模虽大，但属于公司既定战略的延续。</p>\n<p>据报告，上述资本支出中，352亿韩元用于龙仁Y2集群的DRAM工厂（略高于龙仁一期的310亿韩元投入），191亿韩元用于清州M17的NAND工厂。龙仁Y2是龙仁四大集群中的第二个，计划于2027年7月破土动工，主要用于2031年以后的产能扩张；清州M17将于明年2月破土，首个洁净室目标于2028年底竣工，投资周期延续至2031年4月。上述安排与公司此前披露的&#34;2030年前实现100万片晶圆产能&#34;目标一脉相承，并非超出预期的新增支出。</p>\n<h2>Solidigm IPO：战略价值存疑，仍在评估中</h2>\n<p>针对SK海力士旗下美国子公司Solidigm赴美上市的传言，公司管理层表示方案仍在评估中，将于一个月内给出进一步说明。</p>\n<p>报告指出，SK海力士于2021年从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>收购Solidigm，主要目的是获取企业级固态硬盘解决方案（QLC方案的浮栅技术）；经历2023年短暂亏损后，随着AI驱动NAND市场进入超级周期，这笔收购已获得丰厚回报，当前NAND利润率超过70%。鉴于SK海力士充裕的内部现金流和资产负债表完全可以支撑资本支出而无需稀释现有股东权益，<strong>Solidigm上市在融资层面的战略价值有限。</strong></p>\n<p>此外，报告还指出，Solidigm上市可能与韩国2026年初商法修订中关于重复上市的相关规定存在冲突，且在扩大投资者基础和估值重塑方面亦缺乏充分的战略逻辑。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-10 11:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>股价上周遭遇重挫，多重负面消息叠加引发市场恐慌，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>认为市场反应过度。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，摩根大通8月9日发布的研究报告指出，SK海力士股价上周下跌15%，同期韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）跌幅为5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>跌幅为9%。此轮下跌由三大市场传言驱动：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>削减HBM芯片采购量及定价不确定性、股东回报时间表不明朗叠加子公司IPO计划，以及大规模基础设施资本支出披露。</p>\n<p>分析师Jay Kwon在报告中逐一回应上述疑虑，<strong>认为“最坏的时刻已经过去”，并预计股价情绪将从中期维度逐步改善</strong>，并维持对SK海力士的增持评级，目标价为275万韩元（对应2027年6月），较上周收盘价仍有近94%的上行空间。</p>\n<p>报告指出，未来一至两个月内的三大关键催化剂包括：股东回报计划更新（三季度末前）、HBM合同价格更新（三季度末前），以及美国子公司上市计划更新（一个月内）。</p>\n<h2>股东回报：时间表提前，三季度末前披露</h2>\n<p>围绕股东回报的不确定性是上周股价下跌的核心诱因之一。SK海力士已通过监管文件披露，正积极评估额外股东回报措施以提升股东价值，并预计在三季度末前完成并公布相关方案。</p>\n<p>这一时间表较管理层此前在二季度业绩说明会上给出的&#34;年底前&#34;表态明显提前。摩根大通预计，<strong>SK海力士未来三年将产生空前规模的自由现金流，估算累计自由现金流超过800万亿韩元。</strong>报告指出，投资者普遍期待SK海力士作出比日本及美国存储器同行更大力度的股东回报承诺，原因在于该公司过去12个月的盈利能力（包括Kioxia股权出售收益）显著高于同行。一旦推出渐进式股东回报政策，市场反应将较为积极。</p>\n<h2>HBM定价：五折传言失实，摩根大通给出保守预测</h2>\n<p>上周市场流传SK海力士将以竞争对手五折价格为2027年HBM4产品定价，引发投资者对公司盈利能力的广泛担忧。报告明确表示，上述报道&#34;不准确&#34;。</p>\n<p>报告采用相对保守的定价假设——低于2026年预估基础上40%的同比涨幅——并给出三点支撑逻辑：其一，存储器供应商有动力优先为DDR5、LPDDR5及NAND等长期协议产品争取更高溢价，这些产品的利润率显著高于HBM；其二，英伟达是SK海力士最大客户，双方存在多项产品合作，公司可从多年采购的视角与客户谈判；<strong>其三，HBM价格每年均可重新议定，后续年份仍有调价空间</strong>——管理层的表态暗示HBM将面临多年短缺，短期合同定价未必是首要考量，若公司优先锁定三至五年的长期协议量，则短期价格让步具有战略合理性。报告同时指出，若SK海力士最终实现高于预期的HBM均价，将构成每股盈利的上行风险。</p>\n<h2>540亿韩元资本支出：规模庞大，但属既定计划</h2>\n<p>SK海力士宣布540亿韩元（约381亿美元）的大规模资本支出计划，拟在韩国新建两座存储芯片工厂，消息引发市场对财务压力的担忧。该计划规模虽大，但属于公司既定战略的延续。</p>\n<p>据报告，上述资本支出中，352亿韩元用于龙仁Y2集群的DRAM工厂（略高于龙仁一期的310亿韩元投入），191亿韩元用于清州M17的NAND工厂。龙仁Y2是龙仁四大集群中的第二个，计划于2027年7月破土动工，主要用于2031年以后的产能扩张；清州M17将于明年2月破土，首个洁净室目标于2028年底竣工，投资周期延续至2031年4月。上述安排与公司此前披露的&#34;2030年前实现100万片晶圆产能&#34;目标一脉相承，并非超出预期的新增支出。</p>\n<h2>Solidigm IPO：战略价值存疑，仍在评估中</h2>\n<p>针对SK海力士旗下美国子公司Solidigm赴美上市的传言，公司管理层表示方案仍在评估中，将于一个月内给出进一步说明。</p>\n<p>报告指出，SK海力士于2021年从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>收购Solidigm，主要目的是获取企业级固态硬盘解决方案（QLC方案的浮栅技术）；经历2023年短暂亏损后，随着AI驱动NAND市场进入超级周期，这笔收购已获得丰厚回报，当前NAND利润率超过70%。鉴于SK海力士充裕的内部现金流和资产负债表完全可以支撑资本支出而无需稀释现有股东权益，<strong>Solidigm上市在融资层面的战略价值有限。</strong></p>\n<p>此外，报告还指出，Solidigm上市可能与韩国2026年初商法修订中关于重复上市的相关规定存在冲突，且在扩大投资者基础和估值重塑方面亦缺乏充分的战略逻辑。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eeab9dfe7ba82d0e09d5270014bc513","relate_stocks":{"LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) 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