可惜沃什是川普的傀儡_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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可惜沃什是川普的傀儡，根本不会主动加息

内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息

美联储7月议息会议以9:3维持利率不变，但三位官员支持加息25个基点，反对票数为近年罕见。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克和明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里主张立即加息，警告拖延行动将迫使未来更激进紧缩，经济代价更高。两人指出就业韧性和需求强劲为渐进加息提供空间。

内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息

# 华尔街见闻

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22:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>全球通胀压力再度升温之际，美联储内部鹰派声音进一步增强。</p>\n<p>7月31日，据彭博，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）和明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，<strong>应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。</strong></p>\n<p>本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出<strong>联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，<strong>市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。</strong></p>\n<h2>越晚行动，未来代价越高</h2>\n<p>哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。<strong>目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。</strong></p>\n<p>她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。</p>\n<p>卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。<strong>他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。</strong></p>\n<p>卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。</p>\n<div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2>鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温</h2>\n<p>随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。</p>\n<p><strong>以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。</strong></p>\n<p>若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9f837fb2de980d911dd0f985b33941a","relate_stocks":{"ISHG":"iShares S&P/Citigroup 1-3 Year I","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","TPLS":"Thornburg Core Plus Bond ETF","EBUF":"Innovator Emerging Markets 10 Buffer ETF - Quarterly","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","CWS":"AdvisorShares Focused Equity ETF","NELS":"Nelson Select ETF","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 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Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。\n本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。\n与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。\n越晚行动，未来代价越高\n哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。\n她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。\n卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。\n卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。\n\n\n\n\n鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温\n随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。\n以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。\n若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SKRE":1.5,"EDGF":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,"XBIL":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"FLXI":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"XLRI":1.5,"NEMD":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,".SPX":2,"TLT":1.5,"ISHG":1.5,".DJI":2,"EBUF":1.5,"CWS":1.5,"RULE":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"RMIF":1.5,"NELS":1.5,"TPLS":1.5,"YMmain":2,"ESmain":2,"LQD":1.5,"WAMA":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"MUNX":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"NQmain":2,"CRXP":1.5,".IXIC":2,"SPY":1.5,"NGHT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":37,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":592456335840648,"commentId":"592456335840648","gmtCreate":1785670838341,"gmtModify":1785675173252,"authorId":3557632974309611,"author":{"id":3557632974309611,"idStr":"3557632974309611","authorId":3557632974309611,"name":"快乐小狗_123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f561366098c146c7290394d21fe7c9c","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":0},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":591795966603768,"objectIdStr":"591795966603768","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"他岳父是特朗普挚友","text":"他岳父是特朗普挚友","html":"他岳父是特朗普挚友","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}