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2017 19 26
07-13 02:45

TSMC vs Samsung

机构实地调研：台积电赢了现在的CPO，三星在押注下一场

台积电凭借博通、英伟达的交换机CPO产品率先商业化落地；三星则另辟蹊径，布局将HBM、逻辑芯片与硅光芯片整合于同一封装的2.xD方案，瞄准AI计算封装的光学I/O赛道。三星的"三位一体"垂直整合是潜在优势，但良率挑战与商业化时间表仍是最大变数。订单落地，才是检验胜负的唯一标准。

机构实地调研：台积电赢了现在的CPO，三星在押注下一场

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left;\">在当前数据中心的“共封装光学（CPO）”竞赛中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>已凭借<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的产品进展占据先机。与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>或许将筹码押注于下一阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月12日，机构PhotonCap发布实地调研文章，指出<strong>面向交换机的CPO已正式从技术验证迈向客户部署阶段。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7bf2cd3ccef7647e455d8b50c5bfa1c5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"729\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">台积电在这一赛道的制造与先进封装能力，已经得到了首批顶级商业项目的验证。但未来的战局，远比眼下的交换机CPO复杂得多。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当光学I/O（光互连接口）深入到异构计算芯片（XPU）与高带宽内存（HBM）所在的封装内部时，谁能主导这三者的协同设计，谁就将重塑整个行业的竞争维度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>高级副总裁Won-Kyoung Choi于7月9日在Nano Korea提出，<strong>公司正在开发2.xD先进封装，拟将HBM、逻辑芯片和硅光芯片整合至同一封装中。这一方向瞄准的正是未来的AI计算封装的光学I/O。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">当前台积电领跑“交换机CPO”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在目前的CPO市场，台积电是毫无争议的领跑者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调研显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>基于台积电COUPE（紧凑型通用光子引擎）平台的 102.4Tbps CPO以太网交换机，已向早期客户送样。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同时，英伟达的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QMCO\">Quantum</a>-X光子交换机已经开始出货，Spectrum-X以太网光子交换机也已进入生产阶段，首批采用者包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>、Lambda和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一代产品的共同点在于：<strong>光学引擎被部署在交换机ASIC（专用集成电路）的附近。</strong>其核心制造基础，是台积电成熟的硅光子技术与SoIC 3D堆叠能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这一架构下，竞争的重点是光子集成电路（PIC）与电子集成电路（EIC）的堆叠、键合，以及它们与交换机封装的整合。<strong>在这个阶段，HBM并非必要组件。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>相比之下，三星公开的“一站式（Turnkey）CPO方案”路线图将目标定在了2029年。</strong>若以现有交换机CPO的出货量和客户验证作为衡量标准，三星尚未形成与台积电同频的商业化节奏。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">功耗焦虑推动光学引擎向计算芯片“逼近”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">光学I/O之所以要从传统的板级（Board-level）向封装内部迁移，最核心的驱动力是<strong>能耗</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星晶圆代工（Foundry）在OECC 2026准备的展示材料揭示了一个关键阶梯：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当可插拔光模块部署在<strong>板级</strong>时，单比特能耗约为 <strong>10pJ</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当光学引擎被放置在交换机附近的<strong>基板（Substrate）</strong>上时，能耗降至约 <strong>5pJ</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若光学I/O进一步深入到XPU附近的<strong>中介层（Interposer）</strong>，能耗可大幅降至约 <strong>2pJ</strong>。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这一变化的核心逻辑在于“缩短电信号传输距离”。</strong>光学引擎越靠近计算芯片，电气链路就越短，为了补偿板级走线和连接器损耗所需的信号调节也就越少。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，<strong>先进封装成为了将“物理功耗优势”转化为“商业产品优势”的关键环节。</strong>这并不意味着CPO会立刻杀死可插拔光模块，两者将在不同传输距离和功耗预算下长期共存。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但三星的数据预测揭示了趋势，可插拔光学市场年增长率超过25%，而CPO市场的年增长率则高达150%以上。资本和研发资源正在疯狂涌向高集成度的光学架构。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">两种CPO架构，三星与台积电的错位竞争</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">将“交换机CPO”与“XPU-HBM光学I/O”混为一谈，会严重低估下一阶段竞争的复杂性。实际上，这是两种完全不同的架构：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一种是当前主流的“交换机CPO”。</strong> 光学引擎放在交换机ASIC旁边，博通和英伟达的产品即属此类。它解决的是高带宽交换场景下的互连功耗和信号完整性问题。台积电的护城河在于硅光技术、先进键合和交换机封装整合。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二种是面向“XPU-HBM系统”的光学I/O封装。</strong> 它的结构是在中介层上同时配置XPU（或GPU）、HBM以及包含PIC 和EIC的光学引擎。此时，光学I/O不再是交换机的外围组件，而是真正成为了“计算封装”的一部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星高管近期提出的<strong>2.xD 先进封装</strong>正是瞄准了这一方向。该方案计划将 HBM、逻辑芯片与硅光芯片整合在同一封装中，并通过面板级再布线层（RDL）中介层扩展系统封装能力，以应对AI数据中心对海量带宽的吞吐需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>对投资者而言，这两种架构的竞争逻辑截然不同</strong>：前者考验的是单一的制造与封装工艺；而<strong>后者，则要求计算、内存、光学和封装在“设计初期”就进行深度联合优化。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">三星的底牌与多裸片良率的现实约束</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星最大的潜在差异化优势在于其<strong>“三位一体”</strong>的业务版图，它同时拥有 HBM、逻辑芯片代工和硅光平台。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>台积电虽然拥有顶尖的逻辑代工、硅光技术与 CoWoS 封装能力，但它本身不生产HBM。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而三星已经能够通过 SF4 基础裸片将HBM与其晶圆代工能力连接，并建立了自己的硅光平台。<strong>这意味着，三星理论上可以在内部完成HBM接口、逻辑I/O、光学引擎和热管理的联合协同设计，而不必看外部存储供应商的脸色。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.xD 封装面临着极严苛的“多裸片良率”考验。当逻辑芯片、HBM、PIC、EIC和中介层被塞进同一个封装时，任何一个组件的失效都会导致整套昂贵封装的报废。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>芯片数量的增加、封装面积的扩大和键合复杂度的提升，正在成倍放大良率压力与成本风险。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>与此同时，对手并没有闲着。</strong>台积电正在推进COUPE与CoWoS封装的整合，通过成熟的外部生态接入HBM。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>另一方面</strong>，存储巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>也在疯狂补齐先进封装能力，其在美国印第安纳州投资38.7亿美元的先进封装工厂将于2028年量产，且已将CPO纳入内存系统的技术研发版图。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>光学、内存和封装的跨界协同，正成为全产业链的共同发力点。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">订单才是检验胜负的唯一标准</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">台积电赢得了交换机CPO的首轮胜利，其优势建立在实打实的客户送样、产品出货和量产进度上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而三星则在押注下一场战役：试图利用自身在 HBM、逻辑和硅光上的垂直整合能力，在 AI 计算封装领域实现弯道超车。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但市场不应将“技术路线图”等同于“商业护城河”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">未来12个月，行业最值得追踪的信号只有一个：<strong>市场上是否会出现一项具名客户的设计订单，明确要求将 HBM、逻辑芯片和光学I/O绑定在同一封装中交由三星代工？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果这项订单落地，三星的“三位一体”将从纸面资产转化为真正的商业利器。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若迟迟无法兑现，那么台积电依托领先工艺与外部HBM生态所构建的灵活路径，仍将是AI巨头们最稳妥的选择。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>机构实地调研：台积电赢了现在的CPO，三星在押注下一场</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n机构实地调研：台积电赢了现在的CPO，三星在押注下一场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-12 14:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在当前数据中心的“共封装光学（CPO）”竞赛中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>已凭借<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的产品进展占据先机。与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>或许将筹码押注于下一阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月12日，机构PhotonCap发布实地调研文章，指出<strong>面向交换机的CPO已正式从技术验证迈向客户部署阶段。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7bf2cd3ccef7647e455d8b50c5bfa1c5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"729\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">台积电在这一赛道的制造与先进封装能力，已经得到了首批顶级商业项目的验证。但未来的战局，远比眼下的交换机CPO复杂得多。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当光学I/O（光互连接口）深入到异构计算芯片（XPU）与高带宽内存（HBM）所在的封装内部时，谁能主导这三者的协同设计，谁就将重塑整个行业的竞争维度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>高级副总裁Won-Kyoung Choi于7月9日在Nano Korea提出，<strong>公司正在开发2.xD先进封装，拟将HBM、逻辑芯片和硅光芯片整合至同一封装中。这一方向瞄准的正是未来的AI计算封装的光学I/O。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">当前台积电领跑“交换机CPO”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在目前的CPO市场，台积电是毫无争议的领跑者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调研显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>基于台积电COUPE（紧凑型通用光子引擎）平台的 102.4Tbps CPO以太网交换机，已向早期客户送样。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同时，英伟达的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QMCO\">Quantum</a>-X光子交换机已经开始出货，Spectrum-X以太网光子交换机也已进入生产阶段，首批采用者包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>、Lambda和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一代产品的共同点在于：<strong>光学引擎被部署在交换机ASIC（专用集成电路）的附近。</strong>其核心制造基础，是台积电成熟的硅光子技术与SoIC 3D堆叠能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这一架构下，竞争的重点是光子集成电路（PIC）与电子集成电路（EIC）的堆叠、键合，以及它们与交换机封装的整合。<strong>在这个阶段，HBM并非必要组件。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>相比之下，三星公开的“一站式（Turnkey）CPO方案”路线图将目标定在了2029年。</strong>若以现有交换机CPO的出货量和客户验证作为衡量标准，三星尚未形成与台积电同频的商业化节奏。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">功耗焦虑推动光学引擎向计算芯片“逼近”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">光学I/O之所以要从传统的板级（Board-level）向封装内部迁移，最核心的驱动力是<strong>能耗</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星晶圆代工（Foundry）在OECC 2026准备的展示材料揭示了一个关键阶梯：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当可插拔光模块部署在<strong>板级</strong>时，单比特能耗约为 <strong>10pJ</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当光学引擎被放置在交换机附近的<strong>基板（Substrate）</strong>上时，能耗降至约 <strong>5pJ</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若光学I/O进一步深入到XPU附近的<strong>中介层（Interposer）</strong>，能耗可大幅降至约 <strong>2pJ</strong>。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这一变化的核心逻辑在于“缩短电信号传输距离”。</strong>光学引擎越靠近计算芯片，电气链路就越短，为了补偿板级走线和连接器损耗所需的信号调节也就越少。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，<strong>先进封装成为了将“物理功耗优势”转化为“商业产品优势”的关键环节。</strong>这并不意味着CPO会立刻杀死可插拔光模块，两者将在不同传输距离和功耗预算下长期共存。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但三星的数据预测揭示了趋势，可插拔光学市场年增长率超过25%，而CPO市场的年增长率则高达150%以上。资本和研发资源正在疯狂涌向高集成度的光学架构。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">两种CPO架构，三星与台积电的错位竞争</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">将“交换机CPO”与“XPU-HBM光学I/O”混为一谈，会严重低估下一阶段竞争的复杂性。实际上，这是两种完全不同的架构：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一种是当前主流的“交换机CPO”。</strong> 光学引擎放在交换机ASIC旁边，博通和英伟达的产品即属此类。它解决的是高带宽交换场景下的互连功耗和信号完整性问题。台积电的护城河在于硅光技术、先进键合和交换机封装整合。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二种是面向“XPU-HBM系统”的光学I/O封装。</strong> 它的结构是在中介层上同时配置XPU（或GPU）、HBM以及包含PIC 和EIC的光学引擎。此时，光学I/O不再是交换机的外围组件，而是真正成为了“计算封装”的一部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星高管近期提出的<strong>2.xD 先进封装</strong>正是瞄准了这一方向。该方案计划将 HBM、逻辑芯片与硅光芯片整合在同一封装中，并通过面板级再布线层（RDL）中介层扩展系统封装能力，以应对AI数据中心对海量带宽的吞吐需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>对投资者而言，这两种架构的竞争逻辑截然不同</strong>：前者考验的是单一的制造与封装工艺；而<strong>后者，则要求计算、内存、光学和封装在“设计初期”就进行深度联合优化。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">三星的底牌与多裸片良率的现实约束</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星最大的潜在差异化优势在于其<strong>“三位一体”</strong>的业务版图，它同时拥有 HBM、逻辑芯片代工和硅光平台。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>台积电虽然拥有顶尖的逻辑代工、硅光技术与 CoWoS 封装能力，但它本身不生产HBM。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而三星已经能够通过 SF4 基础裸片将HBM与其晶圆代工能力连接，并建立了自己的硅光平台。<strong>这意味着，三星理论上可以在内部完成HBM接口、逻辑I/O、光学引擎和热管理的联合协同设计，而不必看外部存储供应商的脸色。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.xD 封装面临着极严苛的“多裸片良率”考验。当逻辑芯片、HBM、PIC、EIC和中介层被塞进同一个封装时，任何一个组件的失效都会导致整套昂贵封装的报废。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>芯片数量的增加、封装面积的扩大和键合复杂度的提升，正在成倍放大良率压力与成本风险。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>与此同时，对手并没有闲着。</strong>台积电正在推进COUPE与CoWoS封装的整合，通过成熟的外部生态接入HBM。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>另一方面</strong>，存储巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>也在疯狂补齐先进封装能力，其在美国印第安纳州投资38.7亿美元的先进封装工厂将于2028年量产，且已将CPO纳入内存系统的技术研发版图。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>光学、内存和封装的跨界协同，正成为全产业链的共同发力点。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">订单才是检验胜负的唯一标准</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">台积电赢得了交换机CPO的首轮胜利，其优势建立在实打实的客户送样、产品出货和量产进度上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而三星则在押注下一场战役：试图利用自身在 HBM、逻辑和硅光上的垂直整合能力，在 AI 计算封装领域实现弯道超车。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但市场不应将“技术路线图”等同于“商业护城河”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">未来12个月，行业最值得追踪的信号只有一个：<strong>市场上是否会出现一项具名客户的设计订单，明确要求将 HBM、逻辑芯片和光学I/O绑定在同一封装中交由三星代工？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果这项订单落地，三星的“三位一体”将从纸面资产转化为真正的商业利器。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若迟迟无法兑现，那么台积电依托领先工艺与外部HBM生态所构建的灵活路径，仍将是AI巨头们最稳妥的选择。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b98f9e740cb6fb06990004c4ea7eae84","relate_stocks":{"CGDG":"Capital Group Dividend Growers ETF","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU2663582299.SGD":"BSF BLACKROCK SYSTEMATIC ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY ABSOL \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ51526630.SGD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc SGD","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) 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