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进入2026年下半年，全球宏观环境已从上半年美伊冲突与霍尔木兹海峡封锁引发的剧烈动荡中逐步演变。航运通道重新开放，油价回落至高位区间震荡，但能源安全考量仍在持续影响政策议程。股票市场经历了高波动阶段，传统周期性板块出现回调，而AI资本支出的受益股则在组合再平衡中持续获得资金青睐。市场关注点正转向业绩验证，公司层面的表现正取代宏观与地缘因素，成为主要定价驱动力。

全球经济呈现鲜明分化。美国资产市场与AI受益方持续吸引目光，而更广泛家庭则面临生活成本压力，K型分化日益加剧。中国AI与先进制造表现强劲，但传统与内需部门复苏乏力；韩国、中国台湾等AI价值链环节脱颖而出，欧洲则受困于能源压力与有限AI敞口。货币政策方面，美国货币政策预计在新任美联储领导下短期内按兵不动，随着通胀稳定在高于近十年均值的水平，年底可能加息。欧洲央行面临能源驱动的粘性通胀与经济疲软并存的困境，进一步紧缩风险仍存；日本央行则开启渐进式利率正常化。中国继续推进结构性转型，针对性支持制造业升级与技术进步，同时应对房地产领域的持续挑战。

我们始终坚持以客户家族的投资目标与风险偏好为准绳，构建精准匹配的投资组合。我们通过严谨的分析框架，甄别具备合适风险调整后回报特征的投资机会，协助客户灵活应对持续演变的全球宏观与政策环境。

债券

发达市场“更高更久”利率环境下，我们谨慎对待久期敞口，侧重中期久期以优化票息收益，并精选优质信用债增厚回报。

股票 

全球股市整体看多但筛选趋严，我们偏好具备可持续盈利增长的优质公司。区域上相对看好美国，以及在半导体与AI硬件领域占据结构性优势的部分亚洲市场，对欧洲保持谨慎。行业层面，AI已进入第二阶段，投资逻辑从算力扩张转向基础设施瓶颈与商业化回报验证，同时我们在AI之外也关注金融、医疗及工业细分领域的结构性机会。

黄金

在持续的地缘政治与通胀风险下，黄金仍具备配置价值，我们维持选择性配置立场。

另类资产

另类投资在当前环境中发挥辅助性角色。我们聚焦收益生成与市场分化带来的机会，有选择地布局私募股权与优先担保信贷，并对部分区域的实物资产与代币化新兴领域保持关注，同时审慎规避高杠杆与受技术颠覆冲击的信贷敞口。

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在《德林家族办公室2026年下半年展望》中有以下精彩看点：

1. 美联储新主席凯文·沃什首秀即删除宽松前瞻指引，宣布成立工作组审查通胀衡量方法，引发市场对通胀衡量方法可能调整的广泛猜测。点阵图显示约半数官员预计年末至少加息一次。当美联储的“通胀标尺”本身正在被重新定义，市场该如何为“更高更久”重新定价？

2. AI算力紧缺正从GPU向下游全面扩散：电力输送网络、高带宽内存、先进封装、光互联及耐热材料成为新的刚性制约。超大规模云服务商的资本开支逻辑从“买更多加速器”转向“优化每瓦特和每美元的吞吐量”。当算力不再是唯一瓶颈，AI投资的第二阶段究竟谁在卡位、谁在掉队？

3.中国新质生产力加速出海，出口强劲的同时，这些资本密集型行业吸纳就业有限；更值得警惕的是，产能过剩已从传统行业蔓延至部分新经济领域。7月中旬的半年经济数据与月底的政府会议，能否带来新窗口？

4. 全球私募信贷总规模逼近3.5万亿美元，AI对传统SaaS商业模式的冲击正引发大规模财务困境，隐性违约率从2.5%飙升至6.4%，评级下调连续八个季度超过上调。与此同时，香港住宅物业确认进入复苏周期，以住宅为抵押的贷款正提供截然不同的风险收益特征。当技术性淘汰与硬资产保障在信贷市场正面相遇，资金将在何处安放？

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欲了解更多，请发送邮件至：ops@dl-family.com 获取《德林家族办公室2026年下半年展望：冰与火之歌》全文。

ENG Version

Entering the second half of 2026, the global macro environment has gradually evolved from the acute volatility triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of the year. Shipping lanes have reopened, and oil prices have pulled back into a range-bound pattern at elevated levels, though energy security considerations continue to shape the policy agenda. Equity markets went through a period of high volatility: traditional cyclical sectors saw corrections, while beneficiaries of AI capital expenditure continued to attract capital through portfolio rebalancing. Market attention is now shifting toward earnings verification, with company-level performance replacing macro and geopolitical factors as the primary driver of pricing.

The global economy is showing pronounced divergence. US asset markets and AI beneficiaries continue to draw attention, while the broader household sector faces cost-of-living pressures, and the K-shaped divergence is deepening. China's AI and advanced manufacturing sectors remain strong, but the recovery in traditional industries and domestic demand remains sluggish. South Korea, Taiwan Region and other links in the AI value chain stand out, while Europe continues to be constrained by energy pressures and limited AI exposure. On monetary policy, US policy is expected to remain on hold in the near term under new Federal Reserve leadership, with a possible rate hike by year-end as inflation settles above the average of the past decade. The European Central Bank faces a dilemma of energy-driven sticky inflation alongside a weak economy, and the risk of further tightening remains. The Bank of Japan has begun a gradual normalization of interest rates. China continues to advance structural transformation, providing targeted support for manufacturing upgrading and technological progress while addressing ongoing challenges in the property sector.

We remain committed to using each client family's investment objectives and risk tolerance as our guiding benchmark in constructing precisely matched portfolios. Through a rigorous analytical framework, we identify investment opportunities with appropriate risk-adjusted return characteristics, helping clients navigate the continuously evolving global macro and policy environment with flexibility.

Fixed Income

Under a "higher for longer" rate environment in developed markets, we remain cautious on duration exposure, favoring intermediate duration to optimize carry, while selectively adding high-quality credit to enhance returns.

Equities 

We remain constructive on global equities overall while applying increasingly rigorous selection criteria, favoring quality companies with sustainable earnings growth. Regionally, we are relatively more positive on the US, as well as on select Asian markets with structural advantages in semiconductors and AI hardware, while remaining cautious on Europe. At the sector level, AI has entered its second phase, with the investment thesis shifting from compute expansion toward infrastructure bottlenecks and the verification of commercialization returns. Beyond AI, we are also watching structural opportunities in financials, healthcare and select industrial sub-sectors.

Gold

Amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation risks, gold continues to hold allocation value, and we maintain a selective approach to positioning.

Alternative Assets

In the current environment, alternative investments play a supporting rather than a core role. We focus on income generation and opportunities arising from market divergence, selectively deploying capital into private equity and senior secured credit, while maintaining attention on real assets and emerging tokenization opportunities in select regions, and prudently avoiding highly leveraged exposures and credit exposed to technological disruption.

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Highlights from the DL Family Office 2026 H2 Outlook: A Song of Ice and Fire：

1. In his debut meeting, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh removed the dovish forward guidance and announced the formation of task forces to review inflation measurement methodology, sparking widespread speculation that the Fed's approach to measuring inflation could be revised. The dot plot showed that roughly half of the Committee now projects at least one rate hike by year-end. With the Fed's "inflation ruler" itself potentially being redefined, how should markets reprice a "higher for longer" world?

1. AI compute shortages are spreading downstream from GPUs across the full stack: power delivery networks, high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, optical interconnects and heat-resistant materials have become new hard constraints. Hyperscalers' capex logic is shifting from "buying more accelerators" to "optimizing throughput per watt and per dollar." Now that compute is no longer the only bottleneck, who is positioning to win — and who is falling behind — in this second phase of AI investment?

1. China's new productive forces are accelerating their overseas expansion, and while exports remain strong, these capital-intensive industries have created limited employment. More concerning still, overcapacity has spread beyond traditional industries into parts of the new economy. Can the mid-July release of first-half economic data and the late-July Politburo meeting bring a new policy window?

1. The global private credit market is approaching $3.5 trillion in total size, and AI's disruption of traditional SaaS business models is triggering widespread financial distress, with the shadow default rate surging from 2.5% to 6.4%; rating downgrades have outpaced upgrades for eight consecutive quarters. At the same time, Hong Kong residential property has entered a confirmed recovery cycle, and residential property-backed lending is offering a markedly different risk-return profile. As technological displacement collides head-on with hard-asset protection in the credit market, where will capital find a home?

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To learn more, please email ops@dl-family.com to request the full report: DL Family Office 2026 H2 Outlook — A Song of Ice and Fire.

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