苹果认了：AI把它挤到内存队伍末尾_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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苹果认了：AI把它挤到内存队伍末尾

60秒
06-18 18:52

库克称涨价"不可避免"，一场百年级的存储错配正传导至消费端

2026.06.18

全球最强的消费电子买家，第一次抢不过数据中心。库克把它叫作"百年一遇的洪水"。

库克对《华尔街日报》松口：苹果要涨价了。根子只有一个——内存。

三星、SK海力士、美光把产能全砸向AI服务器要用的HBM，传统DRAM和NAND被抽干。

价格一年翻了几倍。手机用的移动DRAM自2025年二季度涨237%，NAND涨70%，1TB固态盘从45美元干到90美元。

+237%

移动DRAM合约价
(自2025Q2，Bernstein)

+95%

传统DRAM一季度
环比(TrendForce)

$270

下代iPhone Pro
估算加价(TechInsights)

传导链：AI抢走的每一片晶圆，都是手机少掉的一片

AI超大厂锁HBM

微软/谷歌/Meta/亚马逊+OpenAI，三到五年预付

↓

三巨头产能转向HBM

SK海力士2026产能售罄，HBM份额约52%

↓

传统DRAM/NAND被抽干

2026供给增速仅16%/17%，低于历史(IDC)

↓

内存价格一季度环比+95%

二季度DRAM再+63%、NAND+75%(TrendForce)

↓

设备涨价 + 偷偷降配

手机/PC在美预计普涨15%(摩根士丹利)

苹果的麻烦是长约到期，而超大厂正用三到五年预付协议锁死供给——它排到了队尾。

照搬成本，TechInsights算下代iPhone Pro要加价270美元；Bernstein估iPhone毛利被侵蚀150个基点。库克对此引述 "This is a hundred-year flood" (这是百年一遇的洪水)。

—— 《华尔街日报》专访 2026.06.17

涨幅一览：手机内存、固态盘的合约价已被重定价

移动DRAM 自25Q2

+237%

DRAM 一季度环比

+95%

NAND 二季度环比

+75%

1TB固态盘零售

+100%

库克愿动用现金帮着扩产，却拒绝自建工厂，还点名要重审对中国存储商的国安限制。

这句才是要害。三巨头集体逃向HBM，留下的传统内存缺口，其实属于哪个市场你知道的..库克马上就要频繁坐飞机过来了，或者说退休了就换那个人过来....

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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全球最强的消费电子买家，<b>第一次抢不过数据中心</b>。库克把它叫作\"百年一遇的洪水\"。\n </blockquote>\n <p>库克对《华尔街日报》松口：苹果要涨价了。根子只有一个——内存。</p>\n <p>三星、SK海力士、美光把产能全砸向AI服务器要用的HBM，传统<span>DRAM和NAND被抽干</span>。</p>\n <p>价格一年翻了几倍。手机用的移动DRAM自2025年二季度涨237%，NAND涨70%，1TB固态盘从45美元干到90美元。</p>\n <div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    +237%\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    移动DRAM合约价\n    <br>\n    (自2025Q2，Bernstein)\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    +95%\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    传统DRAM一季度\n    <br>\n    环比(TrendForce)\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    $270\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    下代iPhone Pro\n    <br>\n    估算加价(TechInsights)\n   </div>\n  </div>\n </div>\n <div>\n  <p>传导链：AI抢走的每一片晶圆，都是手机少掉的一片</p>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     AI超大厂锁HBM\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     微软/谷歌/Meta/亚马逊+OpenAI，三到五年预付\n    </div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    ↓\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     三巨头产能转向HBM\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     SK海力士2026产能售罄，HBM份额约52%\n    </div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    ↓\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     传统DRAM/NAND被抽干\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     2026供给增速仅16%/17%，低于历史(IDC)\n    </div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    ↓\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     内存价格一季度环比+95%\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     二季度DRAM再+63%、NAND+75%(TrendForce)\n    </div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    ↓\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     设备涨价 + 偷偷降配\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     手机/PC在美预计普涨15%(摩根士丹利)\n    </div>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n </div>\n <p>苹果的麻烦是长约到期，而超大厂正用三到五年预付协议锁死供给——它<span>排到了队尾</span>。</p>\n <p>照搬成本，TechInsights算下代iPhone Pro要加价270美元；Bernstein估iPhone毛利被侵蚀150个基点。库克对此引述 \"This is a hundred-year flood\" (这是百年一遇的洪水)。</p><span>—— 《华尔街日报》专访 2026.06.17</span>\n <div>\n  <p>涨幅一览：手机内存、固态盘的合约价已被重定价</p>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    移动DRAM 自25Q2\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div><span>+237%</span>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    DRAM 一季度环比\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div><span>+95%</span>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    NAND 二季度环比\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div><span>+75%</span>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    1TB固态盘 零售\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div><span>+100%</span>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n </div>\n <p>库克愿动用现金帮着扩产，却拒绝自建工厂，还点名要重审对中国存储商的国安限制。</p>\n <p>这句才是要害。三巨头集体逃向HBM，留下的传统内存缺口，其实属于哪个市场你知道的..库克马上就要频繁坐飞机过来了，或者说退休了就换那个人过来....</p>\n</div></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><div>\n <h1></h1>\n <p>库克称涨价\"不可避免\"，一场百年级的存储错配正传导至消费端</p>\n <p>2026.06.18</p>\n <div>\n  <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d3667cc1e1b43a88d62fc2700b4e30f\"></p>\n </div>\n <blockquote>\n  全球最强的消费电子买家，<b>第一次抢不过数据中心</b>。库克把它叫作\"百年一遇的洪水\"。\n </blockquote>\n <p>库克对《华尔街日报》松口：苹果要涨价了。根子只有一个——内存。</p>\n <p>三星、SK海力士、美光把产能全砸向AI服务器要用的HBM，传统<span>DRAM和NAND被抽干</span>。</p>\n <p>价格一年翻了几倍。手机用的移动DRAM自2025年二季度涨237%，NAND涨70%，1TB固态盘从45美元干到90美元。</p>\n <div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    +237%\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    移动DRAM合约价\n    <br>\n    (自2025Q2，Bernstein)\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    +95%\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    传统DRAM一季度\n    <br>\n    环比(TrendForce)\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    $270\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    下代iPhone Pro\n    <br>\n    估算加价(TechInsights)\n   </div>\n  </div>\n </div>\n <div>\n  <p>传导链：AI抢走的每一片晶圆，都是手机少掉的一片</p>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     AI超大厂锁HBM\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     微软/谷歌/Meta/亚马逊+OpenAI，三到五年预付\n    </div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    ↓\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     三巨头产能转向HBM\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     SK海力士2026产能售罄，HBM份额约52%\n    </div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    ↓\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     传统DRAM/NAND被抽干\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     2026供给增速仅16%/17%，低于历史(IDC)\n    </div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    ↓\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     内存价格一季度环比+95%\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     二季度DRAM再+63%、NAND+75%(TrendForce)\n    </div>\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    ↓\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div>\n     设备涨价 + 偷偷降配\n    </div>\n    <div>\n     手机/PC在美预计普涨15%(摩根士丹利)\n    </div>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n </div>\n <p>苹果的麻烦是长约到期，而超大厂正用三到五年预付协议锁死供给——它<span>排到了队尾</span>。</p>\n <p>照搬成本，TechInsights算下代iPhone Pro要加价270美元；Bernstein估iPhone毛利被侵蚀150个基点。库克对此引述 \"This is a hundred-year flood\" (这是百年一遇的洪水)。</p><span>—— 《华尔街日报》专访 2026.06.17</span>\n <div>\n  <p>涨幅一览：手机内存、固态盘的合约价已被重定价</p>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    移动DRAM 自25Q2\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div><span>+237%</span>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    DRAM 一季度环比\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div><span>+95%</span>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    NAND 二季度环比\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div><span>+75%</span>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n  <div>\n   <div>\n    1TB固态盘 零售\n   </div>\n   <div>\n    <div></div><span>+100%</span>\n   </div>\n  </div>\n </div>\n <p>库克愿动用现金帮着扩产，却拒绝自建工厂，还点名要重审对中国存储商的国安限制。</p>\n <p>这句才是要害。三巨头集体逃向HBM，留下的传统内存缺口，其实属于哪个市场你知道的..库克马上就要频繁坐飞机过来了，或者说退休了就换那个人过来....</p>\n</div></body></html>","text":"库克称涨价\"不可避免\"，一场百年级的存储错配正传导至消费端 2026.06.18 全球最强的消费电子买家，第一次抢不过数据中心。库克把它叫作\"百年一遇的洪水\"。 库克对《华尔街日报》松口：苹果要涨价了。根子只有一个——内存。 三星、SK海力士、美光把产能全砸向AI服务器要用的HBM，传统DRAM和NAND被抽干。 价格一年翻了几倍。手机用的移动DRAM自2025年二季度涨237%，NAND涨70%，1TB固态盘从45美元干到90美元。 +237% 移动DRAM合约价 (自2025Q2，Bernstein) +95% 传统DRAM一季度 环比(TrendForce) $270 下代iPhone Pro 估算加价(TechInsights) 传导链：AI抢走的每一片晶圆，都是手机少掉的一片 AI超大厂锁HBM 微软/谷歌/Meta/亚马逊+OpenAI，三到五年预付 ↓ 三巨头产能转向HBM SK海力士2026产能售罄，HBM份额约52% ↓ 传统DRAM/NAND被抽干 2026供给增速仅16%/17%，低于历史(IDC) ↓ 内存价格一季度环比+95% 二季度DRAM再+63%、NAND+75%(TrendForce) ↓ 设备涨价 + 偷偷降配 手机/PC在美预计普涨15%(摩根士丹利) 苹果的麻烦是长约到期，而超大厂正用三到五年预付协议锁死供给——它排到了队尾。 照搬成本，TechInsights算下代iPhone Pro要加价270美元；Bernstein估iPhone毛利被侵蚀150个基点。库克对此引述 \"This is a hundred-year flood\" (这是百年一遇的洪水)。 —— 《华尔街日报》专访 2026.06.17 涨幅一览：手机内存、固态盘的合约价已被重定价 移动DRAM 自25Q2 +237% DRAM 一季度环比 +95% NAND 二季度环比 +75% 1TB固态盘 零售 +100% 库克愿动用现金帮着扩产，却拒绝自建工厂，还点名要重审对中国存储商的国安限制。 这句才是要害。三巨头集体逃向HBM，留下的传统内存缺口，其实属于哪个市场你知道的..库克马上就要频繁坐飞机过来了，或者说退休了就换那个人过来....","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576602721317024","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["META","IE00BYXW3230.USD","APLY","MAGY","ARTY","LU1989764748.USD","LU2999663052.SGD","LU2756315318.SGD","MACW.SI","LU0080751232.USD","IE000ITXATA3.USD","LU0724617625.USD","LU0310800379.SGD","AAPL","LU2286300806.USD","AAPD","AAPB","MSFT","LU0545039389.USD","LU2083900584.USD","LU0323591593.USD","NVDA","IE0034235303.USD","LU1066051225.USD","AAPY","IE00B775H168.HKD","AAPW","LU2265009873.SGD","AIPO","AAPX","AAPU","LU1046421795.USD","BULZ","PTF","LU2357305700.SGD","AMZN","LU0784385840.USD","CHAT","AGIX","LU2505996681.GBP","YMAG","TSLA","LU0444971666.USD","DRAM","LU2023251221.USD","LU2462591277.SGD","LU1934455194.USD","GOOG"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1351,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}