10Y和收益率曲线都_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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黑眼圈太重了邓文
05-26

10Y和收益率曲线都老演员了，多少次拿来打压市场走势了，

美债收益率曲线趋平，市场押注沃什领导下利率将"更高更久"

美债收益率曲线趋平，短端承压明显，5年期与30年期美债收益率之差收窄至2025年5月来最低。摩根大通、高盛等机构亦警示利率将"更高更久"，结构性财政压力与地缘风险或推动10年期收益率最终迈向5%乃至更高。

美债收益率曲线趋平，市场押注沃什领导下利率将"更高更久"

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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美债收益率曲线趋平，市场押注沃什领导下利率将\"更高更久\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-26 11:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美伊战争引发的通胀冲击，正在重塑市场对美联储政策路径的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周二盘中，5年期与30年期美债收益率之差一度收窄至约81个基点，创2025年5月以来最低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，交易员目前定价显示，美联储几乎确定将于12月前启动加息，这与美伊冲突爆发前市场预期的两次降息形成鲜明反转。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c6fa1a8779304d0c71c497174fecc91\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"623\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者日益认为，美伊战争引发自2023年以来最大规模的通胀冲击，迫使多位官员放弃此前的宽松立场，美联储今年将不得不收紧货币政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管周一美伊和谈预期升温，油价随之回落。然而，迪拜经纪公司全球宏观顾问Steven Major表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">债券市场需要担忧的事情太多，这一地区的冲突只是故事的一部分。债券市场远未稳定，正变得有些难以预测，这也解释了为何收益率维持在高位。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine的Chen也强调，推动债市承压的结构性因素，并不会因地缘局势短暂缓和而消散，投资者需要对持续的高利率环境保持警惕。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">曲线趋平背后：短端承压，长端相对稳定</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">收益率曲线趋平的核心逻辑在于短端与长端的分化走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5年期美债收益率上周攀升至年内高点4.35%，周五收于4.26%；基准10年期收益率报4.56%；而30年期收益率则从年内约5.20%的峰值回落至5.06%，部分原因是油价近期有所回落。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8fff7c2da00400936d4c51e5ec5c585a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"619\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（上周美债主要期限收益率走势）</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年期与30年期收益率之差同样收窄至7月以来最低。野村证券高级策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据面与政治面都在减轻降息压力，短端收益率持续上行重新定价。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他补充说，特朗普关于让沃什&#34;独立行事&#34;的表态同样起到了推波助澜的作用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Markets Live策略师Garfield Reynolds指出，<strong>全球通胀加速意味着美联储及其他主要央行将维持鹰派立场，对短端构成压制，而随着全球经济增长前景遭受严重打击的迹象逐渐显现，曲线长端则存在相对支撑。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">官员与华尔街：加息已非小概率事件</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政策官员的措辞转变正在强化市场对加息的定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，5月22日上周五，美联储理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话，明确表示通胀是未来政策决策的&#34;驱动力&#34;，称未来加息与降息“五五开”，这一表态直接推动加息预期急剧升温。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街主流机构也在同步调整判断。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官戴蒙警告，利率可能进一步大幅上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博报道，ING、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>及巴克莱的策略师均认为，<strong>即便油价驱动的通胀压力有所缓解，长端收益率的涨幅也难以完全回落，大规模公共债务负担以及AI投资热潮带来的结构性影响将持续发酵。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine投资组合经理Tracy Chen在接受彭博电视采访时表示，所谓&#34;债券义警&#34;正在警告各央行已落后于曲线。她估计：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便油价有所缓解，我也不认为发达市场债券的结构性抛售就此终止。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>她认为，10年期收益率最终可能升至5%，部分期限甚至可能在一段时间内触及5.5%至6%</strong>，驱动因素包括宽松财政政策、国防及AI基础设施的大规模支出、人口老龄化以及地缘政治动荡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7789abffef4e8a7ef6093738b6ad06","relate_stocks":{"LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. 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