‌$甲骨文(ORCL_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

不做暴富的梦
05-08 13:18

‌$甲骨文(ORCL)$ ‌‌我说个实话，我看了jp Morgan和瑞银的付费研报，两家公司给的price target都在230.我觉得还是比较客观，因为Morgan是直接剔除了oai的合同后分析给出来的数字。对比其它软件公司比如说隔壁的ibm瑞银给的是卖出评价要好很多。可以看出orcl在软件行业是被低估的，但是要注意的是这个230的target是基于26年底而不是现在，所以每个季报都会导致修改。

如果用现在的190，对应到年底的230，也就是预期收益40.假设收益率是线性的，目前的价格应该是40/6个月。也就是对应每个月6块钱的收益，对应的是六月的价格应该在190-200附近。所以如果以一年期持股周期来说，短期的高点就是在200。所以我觉得五月预期不要太高，目标价格就在200，如果超过预期了未来就有回调需求。所以总是有人问止盈多少，我的回答是五月200，六月财报之前210以下。

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恭迎赵公明
·05-08 14:05
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5月份，可能是整个大盘回调的时间。5月确实不要抱有太大希望。个人理解
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- 不做暴富的梦:
  嗯嗯有道理的，我五月的目标价格就是200，不过趋势目前还不错所以有短期冲高的可能
  05-08 14:13
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恭迎赵公明
·05-08 13:58
记得当初140左右的时候，看了一个经济模型，叫什么，我忘记了，是剔除所有的算力合同收入，给出的甲骨文价格就是140。所以我也在这个价格附近买了些。200是理论线。多多少少会给出点溢价的，我年底还是看到300左右。中期，不好说，来回波动吧
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宇智波萨斯给
·05-08 15:33
那要减仓吗
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