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kikijoblor
03-26 23:41

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

存储抛售是错杀？大摩：传统周期卖出逻辑不适用，TurboQuant恐慌是认知偏差！

摩根士丹利报告指出，存储芯片股近期因谷歌TurboQuant技术引发的需求担忧遭遇抛售，但这一担忧被过度放大。该技术旨在扩展模型能力而非削减存储采购，对存储市场并无实质性影响。AI已令DRAM供应从松弛转为紧缺，PC与智能手机生产均受内存制约，存储已成为AI基础设施扩张的核心瓶颈。该行认为，当前估值下的悲观情绪被过度放大，供需紧张态势料将持续数年。

存储抛售是错杀？大摩：传统周期卖出逻辑不适用，TurboQuant恐慌是认知偏差！

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，<strong>市场对资本开支上升、需求破坏及谷歌内存优化技术等利空因素的担忧被过度解读</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于谷歌TurboQuant内存优化技术，摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore认为其属于渐进式演进，<strong>目的在于扩展上下文窗口、提升模型能力，而非削减存储需求，对存储市场基本没有实质性影响。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1424086571\">谷歌TurboQuant技术冲击被过度解读</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告专门回应了近期引发存储股下跌的谷歌“TurboQuant”内存优化技术。谷歌介绍了一种针对键值缓存（KV Cache）的数据压缩算法，并于近日宣布即将推出。<strong>市场广泛流传“谷歌将内存使用量降低6倍”的说法，导致存储股再度承压。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利在与业内人士沟通后认为，这属于渐进式技术演进，对存储需求基本没有实质性影响。报告解释称，KV Cache通常存储于高带宽内存中，其容量固定无法改变；若需额外缓存卸载，通常转移至机架内18TB的LPDDR5内存，同样容量固定。更高效的KV Cache使用对第三层存储（SSD或HDD）可能有一定影响，但业内人士普遍反映，<strong>相关改进主要用于扩展上下文窗口、提升模型能力，而非削减存储成本。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还援引谷歌自身案例指出，Gemini 1.5 Pro曾测试1000万token上下文窗口并取得良好效果，但因推理成本过高而未发布。随着类似优化技术降低成本，预计将被用于支持更高智能、更高算力的产品，而非减少存储需求。</p><h2 id=\"id_3529761704\">AI吞噬产能，存储成为算力扩张瓶颈</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利报告表示，<strong>此轮存储周期与历史规律存在本质差异</strong>。报告指出，AI对DRAM的消耗已大到令其他终端市场出现供应短缺——PC和智能手机的生产均受到内存供应不足的制约。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前三年市场普遍认为DRAM供应存在松弛空间，但这一缓冲已经消失。AI数据中心对高带宽内存（HBM）的需求持续攀升，HBM4的复杂性将进一步吸收产能，而Rubin Ultra平台明年上线后相关内存容量需求将翻倍。与此同时，机架用低功耗DDR5及企业级存储需求同样呈爆发式增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利还指出，AI资本开支增速超过50%，且随着AI在整体支出中占比持续扩大，这一趋势每年都在强化。更高的资本开支固然会带来更多供给，但这并非传统意义上由智能手机和服务器市场3%至5%增长驱动的供给扩张，其量级不可同日而语。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>报告援引OpenAI暂停旗下AI视频生成应用Sora一事，作为算力供给不足的佐证</strong>。摩根士丹利认为，这一事件清晰印证了其投资主题——<strong>在token数量每周以两位数速度增长的背景下，算力供给严重不足，需求远超供给</strong>。视频生成对存储和HDD的需求极为密集，存储短缺可能也是Sora暂停的因素之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告指出，<strong>对于需求旺盛到无法被完全满足的商品而言，在当前估值水平下很难持过度悲观的立场。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3505269910\">美光上看520美元，SanDisk目标690美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>摩根士丹利对美光科技维持超配评级，目标价520美元</strong>，对应约25倍穿越周期每股收益21美元，较当前股价382.09美元有约36%上行空间。牛市情景下目标价为700美元（28倍穿越周期EPS 25美元），熊市情景下目标价为240美元。该行预测美光2026财年GAAP营收达1104.89亿美元，非GAAP每股收益59.36美元，非GAAP毛利率77.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>对于SanDisk，摩根士丹利目标价690美元</strong>，对应23倍穿越周期EPS 30美元，较当前股价677.86美元上行约1.8%。牛市情景目标价875美元，熊市情景350美元。该行预测SanDisk 2026财年GAAP营收154.99亿美元，非GAAP每股收益41.09美元，非GAAP毛利率60.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告指出，两家公司在当前盈利水平下的年化自由现金流可达各自市值的15%至25%。即便考虑到周期性因素，两年以上的高盈利持续期已足以支撑股价实质性上涨。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>存储抛售是错杀？大摩：传统周期卖出逻辑不适用，TurboQuant恐慌是认知偏差！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n存储抛售是错杀？大摩：传统周期卖出逻辑不适用，TurboQuant恐慌是认知偏差！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-26 23:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768490><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告指出，存储芯片股近期因谷歌TurboQuant技术引发的需求担忧遭遇抛售，但这一担忧被过度放大。该技术旨在扩展模型能力而非削减存储采购，对存储市场并无实质性影响。AI已令DRAM供应从松弛转为紧缺，PC与智能手机生产均受内存制约，存储已成为AI基础设施扩张的核心瓶颈。该行认为，当前估值下的悲观情绪被过度放大，供需紧张态势料将持续数年。美国存储芯片股近期因谷歌TurboQuant内存...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768490\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"LU0124676726.USD":"AB SICAV I - SUSTAINABLE US THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2362541273.HKD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU2362541513.USD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU1196500208.SGD":"NORDEA STABLE RETURN \"HB\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1059921491.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY \"HB\" (USDHDG) 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