本周 TOP 10 IB Insight

01月29日 – 02月06日

口罩哥的每周投行观点汇总时间。

本周最炸裂的信号来自超级资本开支：Alphabet 2026年资本支出指引$1750-1850亿，超出共识45-55%；亚马逊更是给出~$2000亿的惊人数字。

瑞银给出SK海力士“三十年一遇”的存储超级周期判断，DRAM涨价周期延长至2027年四季度。高盛将Teradyne定义为“阶跃式拐点”，摩根士丹利挖出英飞凌数据中心功率半导体85% CAGR的隐藏故事。

十家顶级投行，十个核心洞察，看看谁的判断最出人意料。

01科技前沿·存储 Tech · Memory

SK海力士“三十年一遇”存储超级周期：DRAM涨价周期延至2027Q4

"The memory industry has entered a period of acute shortages... DDR pricing to 30% above 3Q18 levels by 2H27. Revenue Won97.1tn (FY25) → Won249.7tn (FY26E) → Won344.4tn (FY27E). 1Q26 DRAM contract pricing +65% QoQ, NAND +40% QoQ. HBM market share ~50% through 2027, 70% share for Nvidia Rubin."

UBS 瑞银 · SK Hynix: HBM Leadership & Memory Supercycle · 2026-02-05

02科技前沿·AI基建 Tech · AI Infra

Alphabet资本开支震撼市场：2026年$1750-1850亿，超共识45-55%

"FY26 capex guide $175-185B substantially ahead of Bloomberg consensus $120B... Cloud backlog surged to $240B from $158B in 3Q (+52% sequential), cloud revenue +48% YoY (highest since 2Q21). Gemini apps 750M MAUs, Enterprise 8M paid seats."

Jefferies 杰富瑞 · Alphabet: Doubling of Capex Reflects Swelling AI & Cloud · 2026-02-05

03科技前沿·AI基建 Tech · AI Infra

亚马逊2026资本开支~$2000亿，Trainium3芯片产能已近售罄

"Management expects FY26 capex to be ~USD200bn vs Bloomberg consensus $146B (+37%). AWS backlog $244B (+40% YoY), AWS custom chips >$10B ARR (triple-digit growth). Trainium3: 40% better price-performance than Trainium2, supply nearly all committed by mid-2026."

Nomura 野村 · Global AI Trend Tracker: Amazon 4Q25 Earnings · 2026-02-06

04科技前沿·半导体设备 Tech · Semicon Equipment

Teradyne阶跃式拐点：AI测试市场目标$60亿营收

"Step-function inflection in fundamentals driven by AI market. 1Q26 guidance $1,200M vs Street $954M (+26%), EPS $2.07 vs $1.29 (+60%). Compute now ~50% of SoC sales (vs ~10% in 2023). Merchant GPU tester qualification: targeting 30% → 50% share over time. PT raised to $300."

Goldman Sachs 高盛 · Teradyne Inc.: Step-function Inflection in Fundamentals · 2026-02-03

05科技前沿·功率半导体 Tech · Power Semis

英飞凌数据中心结构性突破：DC营收85% CAGR至2028年€45亿

"A structural breakout story... Data center sales 85% CAGR FY25-28E reaching €4.5B by FY28E. ASIC builds 77% CAGR FY26-28E. Strategic exit from China IGBTs to focus on DC power semis. Innovative roadmap in power semis playing directly to their sweet spot in rapid DC power architecture changes."

Morgan Stanley 摩根士丹利 · Infineon: A Structural Play Hiding in Our Midst · 2026-02-02

06科技前沿·存储 Tech · Memory

存储TAM上调42-48%，供给短缺将持续至FY28

"Raising FY26-27 memory TAM +42-48%, NAND largest upside risk. Memory shortage continuing through FY28 (base case). FY27 memory AI value share ~45% (from ~30% in FY25). FY26 HBM shortage reaching double-digits. Capital intensity: DRAM 22%, NAND 12% vs decade average 32%/44%."

J.P. Morgan 摩根大通 · APAC Technology: Memory TAM Increase · 2026-02-03

07科技前沿·GaN Tech · GaN Power

英诺赛科GaN芯片获谷歌AI平台设计导入，400V直流架构落地

"Innoscience announced its products have completed significant design-ins on relevant AI hardware platforms of Google Inc. Google unveiled 400V DC architecture at OCP EMEA Summit April 2025. Revenue Rmb828M (2024) → Rmb2,229M (2026E) → Rmb3,787M (2027E)."

Morgan Stanley 摩根士丹利 · Innoscience: Design-in in Google AI Platform · 2026-02-03

08宏观·贸易数据 Macro · Trade Data

韩国半导体出口暴增102.7%创2010年以来最强，K型分化加剧

"Semi export surged by 102.7% yoy from 43.2% previously, the strongest yoy number since 2010, contributing to two-thirds of headline growth (21.2ppts). Per-day semi export growth +72.5% YoY."

BofA 美银 · Korea Watch: Jan Trade: Export Growth Accelerated · 2026-02-02

09宏观·GDP Macro · GDP

中国台湾省4Q GDP +12.7%远超预期，AI半导体驱动15年最强增长

"Taiwan 4Q25 GDP +12.7% YoY vs JPM 9.0%, consensus 8.75% — a massive beat. Full-year 2025 GDP +8.6%, strongest in 15 years. Net exports contributed 11.9ppts (94% of 4Q growth). Exports +38.8% YoY driven by AI/HPC demand."

J.P. Morgan 摩根大通 · Taiwan 4Q GDP: AI/Semi Upcycle to Continue · 2026-01-30

10科技前沿·GPU Tech · GPU/CPU

AMD服务器CPU持续火热，数据中心2026可增长60%+，MI450X下半年上量

"Server CPU remains red hot with double-digit growth in Dec and March. DC overall can grow at 60%+ for C26. December revenue $10.27B vs Street $9.69B (+6%). MI450X ramp 2H26 (4Q-weighted) with plenty of shots on goal for customers. $17B Embedded design wins in C25."

Jefferies 杰富瑞 · AMD: Server CPU Remains Red Hot and MI450X On Track · 2026-02-03

以上就是本周的 TOP 10 投行洞察。

超级资本开支浪潮叠加存储三十年超级周期，AI基建军备竞赛仍在加速——我们下周继续追踪。