本周 TOP 10 IB Insight

01月27日 - 01月31日

又到了口罩哥的每周投行观点汇总时间。

本周最值得关注的三条主线：科技巨头从轻资产转向重资产，债券市场正在成为AI资本开支的隐形监管者；存储芯片超级周期确认，DRAM将迎来史无前例的连续三年涨价；

黄金储备占美国货币供应量逼近200%，杰富瑞直接抛出"事实金本位"的重磅论断。

十家顶级投行，十个核心洞察，逐条拆解。

01 美股科技/宏观 · Tech Macro

科技巨头信用债正在成为AI资本开支的"监管者"

"Big Tech AI flip from asset-light to asset-heavy business model mean bonds new regulators of AI capex & bonds saying 'slow it down'."

BofA Securities 美银 · The Flow Show: Debasement is Da Base Case · 2026.01.29

02 美股科技 · US Tech

Meta隐含的2026年营收指引比华尔街预期高出整整7个百分点

"This effectively means that Susan guided 2026 Revenue to be ~$250B (+25% Y/Y reported). That's 7-points above the Street. Whoa."

J.P. Morgan 摩根大通 · Silver Sunrise Euro TMT Daily · 2026.01.30

03 半导体/AI · Semiconductor AI

"推理上下文"存储需求将吞噬全球13%的NAND产能

"According to our calculations, ICMS for VR144 would contribute 13% of global NAND flash demand in 2027."

Morgan Stanley 摩根士丹利 · AI Supply Chain: TPU/ASIC updates; ICMS NAND demand · 2026.01.27

04 宏观/黄金 · Macro Gold

黄金储备价值已接近美国货币供应量的200%，实际上形成了"金本位"

"161-193% of US Monetary Supply (vs. 77% in 2010)... We believe this confirms gold's rising importance as a global store of value... A De Facto Gold Standard?"

Jefferies 杰富瑞 · A De Facto Gold Standard? The Rising Value of Gold · 2026.01.29

05 半导体 · Semiconductor

存储芯片将迎来极为罕见的"连续三年"价格上涨

"Our analysts forecast that DRAM ASPs will continue rising for three consecutive years— +62% in 2024, +26% in 2025, and +40% in 2026."

BofA Securities 美银 · Korea Viewpoint: How will a semi super-cycle matter · 2026.01.28

06 硬件/AI · Hardware AI

高速铜缆（AEC）并未被光模块杀死，反而占据了40%份额

"AEC (Active Electronic Cable) accounts for about 35%-40%... Amazon's Trainium, Meta and xAI all use AEC products for the first layer of scale-out networking."

Nomura 野村 · AI Expert Call #58: high speed copper cable market · 2026.01.27

07 半导体/AI · Semiconductor AI

联发科2027年TPU出货量预期激增至250万颗，成为Google的核心代理

"We now assume at least 2.5mn units for MediaTek's 3nm TPU in 2027... we think the best proxy to Google TPU should be MediaTek."

Morgan Stanley 摩根士丹利 · AI Supply Chain: TPU/ASIC updates · 2026.01.27

08 大宗商品 · Commodities

电池金属价格全线反弹，电池成本下降的叙事可能终结

"Reversing several years of cost deflation and raising questions about the durability of battery cost reductions... While we could well see margin pressure in 1Q26 on Chinese battery makers such as CATL."

Bernstein 盛博 · Global Energy Storage: Are rising metal prices a risk · 2026.01.28

09 黄金/衍生品 · Gold Derivatives

黄金隐含波动率飙升至疫情时期水平，预示极端行情

"Implied volatility has surged to historical highs of COVID levels. Despite the October correction and the rise in implied volatility, the entire curve has shifted even higher across the board."

J.P. Morgan 摩根大通 · Cross Asset Volatility: Gold Through the Lens of Derivatives · 2026.01.30

10 AI算力 · AI Compute

H100租赁价格跳涨的唯一触发点竟是Claude 4.5 Opus

"H100 rental prices are up only since Claude 4.5 Opus launch."

J.P. Morgan 摩根大通 · Tech-Semis-Back Vacation! Interesting Things · 2026.01.27

以上就是本周的 TOP 10 投行洞察。

口罩哥的星球独家汇总