这篇文章不错，转发给_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

1
评论
收藏

许愿百万美金
08-17

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

关税风险消退+定价潜力，大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US)：iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部上调8%至5400万部。值得注意的是，此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型，各新增200万部产能。展望2025年下半年，分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间，同比下降5%至1%。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平，9月季度存在更大的补库空间，这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。

关税风险消退+定价潜力，大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US)：iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

1

举报

评论

推荐
最新

empty

暂无评论

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":468529629249640,"tweetId":"468529629249640","gmtCreate":1755416262893,"gmtModify":1755416264389,"author":{"id":3484606529440553,"idStr":"3484606529440553","authorId":3484606529440553,"authorIdStr":"3484606529440553","name":"许愿百万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7259231b743bcda3494105b20c660080","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1363,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/468529629249640","repostId":2559914079,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2559914079","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1755263881,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2559914079?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-15 21:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"关税风险消退+定价潜力，大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US)：iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2559914079","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部上调8%至5400万部。值得注意的是，此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型，各新增200万部产能。展望2025年下半年，分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间，同比下降5%至1%。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平，9月季度存在更大的补库空间，这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>上调了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01126\">德林</a>为首的分析团队指出，这一调整源于多重积极因素：iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等，这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。</p><p>分析师强调，此前担忧的峰值关税风险(如第232条款)已基本消退，监管对短期业绩的冲击也弱于市场预期(尽管仍是长期风险)。此外，苹果的定价策略被低估——其服务价格已两年未调整，未来可通过这一杠杆释放增长潜力。当前苹果股价相对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的交易水平，与过去五年平均水平基本一致，估值具备支撑。</p><p>值得注意的是，此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型，各新增200万部产能。不过摩根士丹利表示，其内部预测的5500万部销量已部分涵盖这一增量，较修正后的5400万部预测高出约80万部。</p><p>展望2025年下半年，分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间，同比下降5%至1%(2024年同期为8400万部)。同时指出，12月季度iPhone生产的季节性波动通常大于9月季度，过去五年(排除2020-2021年疫情特殊期)的环比增幅范围在35%至71%之间。</p><p>该团队还观察到，当前市场对iPhone的估计正呈现上调趋势，而历史上苹果股价在估计修正期间常伴随估值扩张。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平，9月季度存在更大的补库空间，这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>关税风险消退+定价潜力，大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US)：iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n关税风险消退+定价潜力，大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US)：iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-15 21:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍德林为首的分析团队指出，这一调整源于多重积极因素：iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等，这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。分析师强调，此前担忧的峰值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1582986359.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","MACW.SI":"APPLE 3xLongSG261006","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","AAPL":"苹果","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU1935042215.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC A","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1989771016.USD":"东方汇理环球老龄化投资基金 A2 Acc","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU2092627202.USD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 USD-H","LU1582986433.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2559914079","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍德林为首的分析团队指出，这一调整源于多重积极因素：iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等，这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。分析师强调，此前担忧的峰值关税风险(如第232条款)已基本消退，监管对短期业绩的冲击也弱于市场预期(尽管仍是长期风险)。此外，苹果的定价策略被低估——其服务价格已两年未调整，未来可通过这一杠杆释放增长潜力。当前苹果股价相对标普500指数的交易水平，与过去五年平均水平基本一致，估值具备支撑。值得注意的是，此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型，各新增200万部产能。不过摩根士丹利表示，其内部预测的5500万部销量已部分涵盖这一增量，较修正后的5400万部预测高出约80万部。展望2025年下半年，分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间，同比下降5%至1%(2024年同期为8400万部)。同时指出，12月季度iPhone生产的季节性波动通常大于9月季度，过去五年(排除2020-2021年疫情特殊期)的环比增幅范围在35%至71%之间。该团队还观察到，当前市场对iPhone的估计正呈现上调趋势，而历史上苹果股价在估计修正期间常伴随估值扩张。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平，9月季度存在更大的补库空间，这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MACW.SI":0.6,"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}