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Risk sentiment received a further boost in May following the temporary trade truce between the US and Chinese Mainland, which included a reduction in effective tariffs on Chinese exports to the US. Investors grew optimistic that additional agreements could be struck with other trading partners, helping global equity markets extend their gains. However, following this relief rally, global asset valuations have become elevated. At this stage, we maintain a cautious stance toward US policy risks, particularly those related to tariffs, fiscal deficits, and Middle East tensions. We observe rising stagflation risks in both the US and Japan, as reflected in elevated long-term yields and steepening yield curves, while fiscal and monetary policies in the Eurozone and Chinese Mainland remain relatively constructive.

Amid today’s highly uncertain macroeconomic landscape, we are entering an era marked by fragmentation and divergence. We reiterate the importance of fortifying portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high-quality yields. 

Fixed Income

We maintain a defensive allocation: we take a neutral stance on duration and underweight high-yield bonds.

Stocks

We hold a neutral view on U.S. stocks. Given the relatively low valuations, we maintain a positive outlook on Chinese and European stock markets.

Gold 

Despite gold prices having climbed to a record high, we still believe there is sufficient basis to maintain gold allocations amid the global interest rate downtrend in 2025. We anticipate that central bank gold purchasing demand will continue to provide support for gold prices. Gold can not only effectively hedge against geopolitical risks and uncertainties arising from rising sovereign debts and deficits, but also serve as an efficient tool to diversify currency exposures.

Cryptocurrency 

The global cryptocurrency market entered a triple - resonance cycle of “regulation - technology - capital” in Q2 2025, with the total market value exceeding $3.4 trillion and Bitcoin surpassing $110,000, reaching a new all - time high. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we believe that the status of Bitcoin as a core cryptocurrency asset is likely to be continuously consolidated, and the discussion about its inclusion in global reserve assets is expected to heat up.

Alternative Investments &

Private Equity

The exit environment in the global capital markets has generally improved, with the Asia-Pacific region showing particularly positive performance. In the current private equity investment environment, we have adopted a prudent investment strategy. There is no doubt that the current market liquidity crunch has brought challenges to investment decisions, but we also see windows of opportunity ahead.

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The following are the highlights from "2025 2nd Half Market Outlook: Navigating Through Uncertainties – Recalibrating Global Portfolio":

1. After being hit by tariff and immigration policy shocks in the first quarter, market focus on the United States has shifted to the federal government's fiscal condition. The Trump administration has put forward its first budget bill during its term, the "Great and Beautiful Act," which aims to stimulate economic growth by extending tax cuts, strengthening border security, and cutting welfare spending, but it may push up the deficit. With the U.S. deficit remaining high, will it severely compress the space for fiscal policies and exacerbate economic risks?

2. Affected by the dual impacts of structural labor shortages caused by demographic factors and entrenched inflation expectations, Japan is returning to the re-inflation track through continuous price and wage increases. However, due to the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies, the export sector and business confidence have been hit, and economic growth has shown signs of slowing down. As inflation expectations rise, how will Japan deal with the dilemma of whether to raise interest rates?

3. To drive long-term and sustainable improvement in industrial productivity and growth in economic added value, the Chinese mainland has been continuously seeking new breakthroughs in technological innovation since 2023. Following the launch of DeepSeek, the Chinese mainland has once again demonstrated its ability to lead cutting-edge innovation, which is reattracting the attention of some international investors. Will fields such as the supporting industrial chain of artificial intelligence (AI), automation and robotics, and digital transformation become the core engines of economic growth?

4. In terms of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are ushering in a golden period of compliant development and application expansion. However, facing the complex and changing macroeconomic environment, the evolving global regulatory landscape, and the endless challenges of technological innovation, can stablecoins sustain their positive development momentum and truly reshape the global financial payment system?

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