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这个系列就当胡乱写的随笔，所以标题就不加洋文故弄玄虚了…

试图模仿空之客大佬，整理下mnc 25q1业绩；当前对pharma认知不够，大佬们多指正

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N):

- 首家发业绩的mnc，25Q1 rev $13.87b, yoy +2.3%, in line, 增长主要由肿瘤 (darzalex/cd38, ~3.24b, car-t 0.37b) 等产品驱动，对冲了自免大药进入生命周期尾声的冲击 (Stelara/乌司奴 1.63b, yoy -34%; Tremfya/古塞奇尤 0.96b, yoy +18%, UC适应症皮下诱导+维持给药灵活，上市后推广顺利，皮下注射剂型CD适应症获批，UC/CD算是下一个发力的领域)，adj eps没增长了，2.77 vs 24q1 2.71

-维持了25年eps增长中枢指引$10.5-10.7，并上调了销售预期 (1月收购了Intra-Cellular/ITCT.O; guide $91.3b to $92b)，以上指引考虑了关税影响

- CEO对关税的评价：预计对medtech side影响~$400m (mostly captured as COGS)，同时mgmt highlighted its recent commitment to invest >$55bn in the US over the next four years, 完成后JnJ将可以在国内实现advanced medicines生产自给自足；另外Joaquin Duato还表示税收政策才是吸引制造业回流美国的有效工具

- itci的luma估计年内能批重度抑郁预防治疗；egfr/cmet双抗ami公布h2h osi数据，mOS NR，HR 0.75；IL-23口服ico的初步数据不错，3/10当天ptgx 46cm (不过最近又回落了)

-4月底imaavy批了，用于治疗12岁及以上患者的gMG，公司觉得可能是个5b peak的产品；MG这个赛道是真的卷…UCB有Rystiggo (23年上市) 和Zilbrysq (24年上市), argenx有Vyvgart/efgar (iv+sc), AZ有Soliris和Ultomiris, amgen有Uplizna (pdufa 2025/12/14), immonovant有batoclimab/巴托利单抗，不过bato应该是寄了 (imvt不打算寻求mg和cidp的批准，二是专注做imvt-1402)

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY.N):

- 25q1 rev $11.2b, yoy -6%, beat (vs cons 10.8b), non-gaap eps 1.80, beat (va cons 1.52), growth portfolio (Opdive, Reblozyl, Cobenfy, Sotyktu等) rev +69m, yoy +16%, 是主要增长来源 (不过这部分的guidance变来变去，之前说25年10-13b，后来说26年至少达到10b), legacy portfolio增速不行，主要受Eliquis/阿哌沙班, Revlimid/来那度胺和 Pomalyst/泊马度胺等拖累

- guide up, raised from 45.8b to 45.8-46.8b (due to favored FX chgs…), non-gaap eps from 6.55-6.85 to 6.7-7.0 (考虑了当前中国从美进口关税，但没考虑未来潜在关税风险/现在豁免)；刷了下，好像大家对他态度还是neutral…

- 最近R&D有两项大ph3 fail, 分别是Camzyos (fic, q1收入159m) 的非梗阻性肥厚型心脏病和Cobenfy的adjunctive schizo，看大佬们的分析，这个应该影响不大 (Cobenfy上市以来实现$27m销售，当前还在市场拓展期，ramp up还算in line)；Iberdomide r/r MM继续，今年可能会有数据读出

- cmts on capital allocation: Business development is our top capital allocation priority. And of course, as you note, we're going to source that innovation from wherever it comes. And there's certainly a lot of exciting innovation taking place in China. We're going to be focused on a few things, though.

MSD (MRK.N):

- rev 15.5b, yoy -2%, in line (va cons 15.2b), keytruda依旧是大头，rev 7.2b, yoy +4%, 占46%, 但不好的是环比开始下滑了 (自称是wholesaler purchases问题)，Winrevair 280m (+46m, 似乎是beat), 但hpv疫苗稀烂，1.33b, yoy -41%, 主要是中国区的需求下降/库存持续，智飞25q1 miss ("we will assess do we or do we not ship further productsthis year at the midpoint of this year…"，估计是够呛)；non-gaap eps 2.22, yoy +7%, slightly beat (va cons 2.14), 不过24q1有并购影响，还原后就不行了

btw，隔壁gsk最近也发了25q1，RSV疫苗Arexvy仍无反转，继续暴跌57%（美国cdc于去年6月调整了接种人群范围，从60岁上调至75岁，60-74岁年龄段限定在高风险人群，自此arexvy一蹶不振，24q3 yoy -74%, 24q4 yoy -70%…智飞的痛苦可能还要继续），而Arexvy国内ph3下半年pivotal readouts，26年提交上市申报，预计2H27进口

- guidance不变，因跟恒瑞的LPa/HRS-5346 bd deal (后面msd会负责global development)，影响eps 0.06，关税影响~200m cost，已考虑在内；guidance assumes no further shipments of hpv to china

- 对关税没怎么聊，经典回复“working on potential mitigation efforts and steps to minimize any potential supply chain disruptions”；最近宣布了1b usd投资，在特拉华州建厂，专门用于生产keytruda (在美现有库存足以应付25年的销售)

- comments on BD: BD strat unchanged, "Science and value-driven business development remains a top priority, and we continue to assess opportunities with urgency and an eye toward driving near- and long-term growth and value creation…" 只能说keytruda LOE压力很大

Roche (RHHBY.OO):

- rev 15.4b chf, cer yoy +6% (暂未找到市场预期；看了下新闻，基本上表述都是“亮眼”)

- 制药业务12.0b chf, yoy +8%, phesgo (曲妥珠/帕妥珠复合制剂) yoy +52%，看绝对值贡献最多，+205m chf, 不过global conversion rate已经到了47% (后面咋办？)，vabysmo (眼科双抗) yoy +18%, hemlibra (血友病) yoy +11%，俩末线的cd3/cd20没啥动静，跟srpt合作的elevidys前阵子还急性肝损挂了个人，后面估计难受了; 诊断业务3.5b, flat

- 25q1在cvrm有大动作，问zealand $1.65b upfront+3.6b milestone搞了个amylin类似物；TL1A/RG6631新增ph1 MASH, ph2 AD, 已进行一项CD ph3；tigit继续成弃子，本季度将ph3 npc移除，不过tigit+pd-l1治疗nsclc ph3还在进行

- comments on BD: if pharmaceutical tariffs do come into force, the industry will find it more difficult to make financial sense of any M&A deals. My assumption would be that you will see an industry worldwide situation where people probably reduce the effort at this stage, and we'll see how things develop, things can change very quickly in this environment.

- 关税：库存储备，可能存在关税风险的药品集中在四种药物上 (没说具体是啥)，目前已经增加了三种药物的生产能力，为第四种药物启动了技术转移流程；现有的美国生产设施仅运行了~50%产能，提升空间足够

Sanofi (SNY.O):

- rev 9.9b eur, cer yoy +9.7%, beat (cons ~7%), 近期新上的7个药+rsv抗体贡献了1.13b eur rev, yoy +46.5%，其中altuviiio (血友病) 销售251m eur, yoy +100%, 销售很不错，算potential blockbuster

不过核心中的核心dupixent rev 3.48 eur, yoy +20.3%, 但24q4有3.5b, 首次出现单季度环比下滑 (24q4 qoq +0.69%, 其实已经不行了，24q3-q4, 25q1都是差不多~3.5b；虽然copd 24年7月跟24年9月在欧美相继获批，暂时没太多贡献，公司预期远期贡献5b eur sales)；eps yoy +15.7%

- maintained guidance, rev mid-to-high single-digit, business esp low double-digit

- R&D: 可以算是all in immunology; 2h25 会启动TL1A/Duvakitug (potential bic) ph3；dupi批了慢性荨麻疹，ox40l看到积极结果，哮喘ph2显示70%急性发作降低率，ph3马上启动，ox40l/tnf在hs中去的积极结果

来源：医药魔方，Bio Journey等